The dawn of the tropical Atlantic invasion into the Mediterranean Sea.

The Mediterranean Sea is a marine biodiversity hotspot already affected by climate-driven biodiversity collapses. Its highly endemic fauna is at further risk if global warming triggers an invasion of tropical Atlantic species. Here, we combine modern species occurrences with a unique paleorecord from the Last Interglacial (135 to 116 ka), a conservative analog of future climate, to model the future distribution of an exemplary subset of tropical West African mollusks, currently separated from the Mediterranean by cold upwelling off north-west Africa. We show that, already under an intermediate climate scenario (RCP 4.5) by 2050, climatic connectivity along north-west Africa may allow tropical species to colonize a by then largely environmentally suitable Mediterranean. The worst-case scenario RCP 8.5 leads to a fully tropicalized Mediterranean by 2100. The tropical Atlantic invasion will add to the ongoing Indo-Pacific invasion through the Suez Canal, irreversibly transforming the entire Mediterranean into a novel ecosystem unprecedented in human history.

A Late Pleistocene coastal ecosystem in French Guiana was hyperdiverse relative to today.

Warmer temperatures and higher sea level than today characterized the Last Interglacial interval [Pleistocene, 128 to 116 thousand years ago (ka)]. This period is a remarkable deep-time analog for temperature and sea-level conditions as projected for 2100 AD, yet there has been no evidence of fossil assemblages in the equatorial Atlantic. Here, we report foraminifer, metazoan (mollusks, bony fish, bryozoans, decapods, and sharks among others), and plant communities of coastal tropical marine and mangrove affinities, dating precisely from a ca. 130 to 115 ka time interval near the Equator, at Kourou, in French Guiana. These communities include ca. 230 recent species, some being endangered today and/or first recorded as fossils. The hyperdiverse Kourou mollusk assemblage suggests stronger affinities between Guianese and Caribbean coastal waters by the Last Interglacial than today, questioning the structuring role of the Amazon Plume on tropical Western Atlantic communities at the time. Grassland-dominated pollen, phytoliths, and charcoals from younger deposits in the same sections attest to a marine retreat and dryer conditions during the onset of the last glacial (ca. 110 to 50 ka), with a savanna-dominated landscape and episodes of fire. Charcoals from the last millennia suggest human presence in a mosaic of modern-like continental habitats. Our results provide key information about the ecology and biogeography of pristine Pleistocene tropical coastal ecosystems, especially relevant regarding the-widely anthropogenic-ongoing global warming.

Widespread evidence for elephant exploitation by Last Interglacial Neanderthals on the North European plain.

Neanderthals hunted and butchered straight-tusked elephants, the largest terrestrial mammals of the Pleistocene, in a lake landscape on the North European plain, 125,000 years ago, as recently shown by a study of the Last Interglacial elephant assemblage from Neumark-Nord (Germany). With evidence for a remarkable focus on adult males and on their extended utilization, the data from this location are thus far without parallel in the archaeological record. Given their relevance for our knowledge of the Neanderthal niche, we investigated whether the Neumark-Nord subsistence practices were more than a local phenomenon, possibly determined by local characteristics. Analyzing elephant remains from two other Last Interglacial archaeological sites on the North European plain, Gröbern and Taubach, we identified in both assemblages similar butchering patterns as at Neumark-Nord, demonstrating that extended elephant exploitation was a widespread Neanderthal practice during the (early part of the) Last Interglacial. The substantial efforts needed to process these animals, weighing up to 13 metric tons, and the large amounts of food generated suggest that Neanderthals either had ways of storing vast amounts of meat and fat and/or temporarily aggregated in larger groups than commonly acknowledged. The data do not allow us to rule out one of the two explanations, and furthermore both factors, short-term larger group sizes as well as some form of food preservation, may have played a role. What the data do show is that exploitation of large straight-tusked elephants was a widespread and recurring phenomenon amongst Last Interglacial Neanderthals on the North European plain.

Sea-level trends across The Bahamas constrain peak last interglacial ice melt.

During the last interglacial (LIG) period, global mean sea level (GMSL) was higher than at present, likely driven by greater high-latitude insolation. Past sea-level estimates require elevation measurements and age determination of marine sediments that formed at or near sea level, and those elevations must be corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). However, this GIA correction is subject to uncertainties in the GIA model inputs, namely, Earth's rheology and past ice history, which reduces precision and accuracy in estimates of past GMSL. To better constrain the GIA process, we compare our data and existing LIG sea-level data across the Bahamian archipelago with a suite of 576 GIA model predictions. We calculated weights for each GIA model based on how well the model fits spatial trends in the regional sea-level data and then used the weighted GIA corrections to revise estimates of GMSL during the LIG. During the LIG, we find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 1.2 m higher than today, and it is very unlikely (5% probability) to have exceeded 5.3 m. Estimates increase by up to 30% (decrease by up to 20%) for portions of melt that originate from the Greenland ice sheet (West Antarctic ice sheet). Altogether, this work suggests that LIG GMSL may be lower than previously assumed.

Ancient plant DNA reveals High Arctic greening during the Last Interglacial.

Summer warming is driving a greening trend across the Arctic, with the potential for large-scale amplification of climate change due to vegetation-related feedbacks [Pearson et al., Nat. Clim. Chang. (3), 673-677 (2013)]. Because observational records are sparse and temporally limited, past episodes of Arctic warming can help elucidate the magnitude of vegetation response to temperature change. The Last Interglacial ([LIG], 129,000 to 116,000 y ago) was the most recent episode of Arctic warming on par with predicted 21st century temperature change [Otto-Bliesner et al., Philos. Trans. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. (371), 20130097 (2013) and Post et al., SciAdv (5), eaaw9883 (2019)]. However, high-latitude terrestrial records from this period are rare, so LIG vegetation distributions are incompletely known. Pollen-based vegetation reconstructions can be biased by long-distance pollen transport, further obscuring the paleoenvironmental record. Here, we present a LIG vegetation record based on ancient DNA in lake sediment and compare it with fossil pollen. Comprehensive plant community reconstructions through the last and current interglacial (the Holocene) on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada, reveal coherent climate-driven community shifts across both interglacials. Peak LIG warmth featured a ∼400-km northward range shift of dwarf birch, a key woody shrub that is again expanding northward. Greening of the High Arctic-documented here by multiple proxies-likely represented a strong positive feedback on high-latitude LIG warming. Authenticated ancient DNA from this lake sediment also extends the useful preservation window for the technique and highlights the utility of combining traditional and molecular approaches for gleaning paleoenvironmental insights to better anticipate a warmer future.

Summer warmth of the past six interglacials on Greenland.

The relative warmth of mid-to-late Pleistocene interglacials on Greenland has remained unknown, leading to debates about the regional climate forcing that caused past retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). We analyze the hydrogen isotopic composition of terrestrial biomarkers in Labrador Sea sediments through interglacials of the past 600,000 y to infer millennial-scale summer warmth on southern Greenland. Here, we reconstruct exceptionally warm summers in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, concurrent with strong Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. In contrast, "superinterglacial" MIS11 demonstrated only moderate warmth, sustained throughout a prolonged interval of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide. Strong inferred GrIS retreat during MIS11 relative to MIS5e suggests an indirect relationship between maximum summer temperature and cumulative interglacial mass loss, indicating strong GrIS sensitivity to duration of regional warmth and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Pronounced summer warming in northwest Greenland during the Holocene and Last Interglacial.

Projections of future rates of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet are highly uncertain because its sensitivity to warming is unclear. Geologic reconstructions of Quaternary interglacials can illustrate how the ice sheet responded during past warm periods, providing insights into ice sheet behavior and important tests for data-model comparisons. However, paleoclimate records from Greenland are limited: Early Holocene peak warmth has been quantified at only a few sites, and terrestrial sedimentary records of prior interglacials are exceptionally rare due to glacial erosion during the last glacial period. Here, we discuss findings from a lacustrine archive that records both the Holocene and the Last Interglacial (LIG) from Greenland, allowing for direct comparison between two interglacials. Sedimentary chironomid assemblages indicate peak July temperatures 4.0 to 7.0 °C warmer than modern during the Early Holocene maximum in summer insolation. Chaoborus and chironomids in LIG sediments indicate July temperatures at least 5.5 to 8.5 °C warmer than modern. These estimates indicate pronounced warming in northwest Greenland during both interglacials. This helps explain dramatic ice sheet thinning at Camp Century in northwest Greenland during the Early Holocene and, for the LIG, aligns with controversial estimates of Eemian warming from ice core data retrieved in northern Greenland. Converging geologic evidence for strong LIG warming is challenging to reconcile with inferred Greenland Ice Sheet extent during the LIG, and the two appear incompatible in many models of ice sheet evolution. An increase in LIG snowfall could help resolve this problem, pointing to the need for hydroclimate reconstructions from the region.

Dynamics behind disjunct distribution, hotspot-edge refugia, and discordant RADseq/mtDNA variability: insights from the Emei mustache toad.

BACKGROUND: The distribution of genetic diversity and the underlying processes are important for conservation planning but are unknown for most species and have not been well studied in many regions. In East Asia, the Sichuan Basin and surrounding mountains constitute an understudied region that exhibits a "ring" of high species richness overlapping the eastern edge of the global biodiversity hotspot Mountains of Southwest China. We examine the distributional history and genetic diversification of the Emei mustache toad Leptobrachium boringii, a typical "ring" element characterized by disjunct ranges in the mountains, by integrating time-calibrated gene tree, genetic variability, individual-level clustering, inference of population splitting and mixing from allele frequencies, and paleoclimatic suitability modeling. RESULTS: The results reveal extensive range dynamics, including secondary contact after long-term isolation via westward dispersal accompanied by variability loss. They allow the proposal of a model that combines recurrent contractions caused by Quaternary climatic changes and some failed expansions under suitable conditions for explaining the shared disjunct distribution pattern. Providing exceptional low-elevation habitats in the hotspot area, the eastern edge harbors both long-term refugial and young immigrant populations. This finding and a synthesis of evidence from other taxa demonstrate that a certain contributor to biodiversity, one that preserves and receives low-elevation elements of the east in this case, can be significant for only a particular part of a hotspot. By clarifying the low variability of these refugial populations, we show that discordant mitochondrial estimates of diversity can be obtained for populations that experienced admixture, which would have unlikely left proportional immigrant alleles for each locus. CONCLUSIONS: Dispersal after long-term isolation can explain much of the spatial distribution of genetic diversity in this species, while secondary contact and long-term persistence do not guarantee a large variation. The model for the formation of disjunct ranges may apply to many other taxa isolated in the mountains surrounding the Sichuan Basin. Furthermore, this study provides insights into the heterogeneous nature of hotspots and discordant variability obtained from genome-wide and mitochondrial data.

Giant boulders and Last Interglacial storm intensity in the North Atlantic.

As global climate warms and sea level rises, coastal areas will be subject to more frequent extreme flooding and hurricanes. Geologic evidence for extreme coastal storms during past warm periods has the potential to provide fundamental insights into their future intensity. Recent studies argue that during the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, ∼128-116 ka) tropical and extratropical North Atlantic cyclones may have been more intense than at present, and may have produced waves larger than those observed historically. Such strong swells are inferred to have created a number of geologic features that can be observed today along the coastlines of Bermuda and the Bahamas. In this paper, we investigate the most iconic among these features: massive boulders atop a cliff in North Eleuthera, Bahamas. We combine geologic field surveys, wave models, and boulder transport equations to test the hypothesis that such boulders must have been emplaced by storms of greater-than-historical intensity. By contrast, our results suggest that with the higher relative sea level (RSL) estimated for the Bahamas during MIS 5e, boulders of this size could have been transported by waves generated by storms of historical intensity. Thus, while the megaboulders of Eleuthera cannot be used as geologic proof for past "superstorms," they do show that with rising sea levels, cliffs and coastal barriers will be subject to significantly greater erosional energy, even without changes in storm intensity.

Reconstructing the last interglacial at Summit, Greenland: Insights from GISP2.

The Eemian (last interglacial, 130-115 ka) was likely the warmest of all interglacials of the last 800 ka, with summer Arctic temperatures 3-5 °C above present. Here, we present improved Eemian climate records from central Greenland, reconstructed from the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core. Our record comes from clean, stratigraphically disturbed, and isotopically warm ice from 2,750 to 3,040 m depth. The age of this ice is constrained by measuring CH4 and δ(18)O of O2, and comparing with the historical record of these properties from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) and North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice cores. The δ(18)Oice, δ(15)N of N2, and total air content for samples dating discontinuously from 128 to 115 ka indicate a warming of ∼6 °C between 127-121 ka, and a similar elevation history between GISP2 and NEEM. The reconstructed climate and elevation histories are compared with an ensemble of coupled climate-ice-sheet model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet. Those most consistent with the reconstructed temperatures indicate that the Greenland ice sheet contributed 5.1 m (4.1-6.2 m, 95% credible interval) to global eustatic sea level toward the end of the Eemian. Greenland likely did not contribute to anomalously high sea levels at ∼127 ka, or to a rapid jump in sea level at ∼120 ka. However, several unexplained discrepancies remain between the inferred and simulated histories of temperature and accumulation rate at GISP2 and NEEM, as well as between the climatic reconstructions themselves.

Ice age unfrozen: severe effect of the last interglacial, not glacial, climate change on East Asian avifauna.

BACKGROUND: The glacial-interglacial cycles in the Pleistocene caused repeated range expansion and contraction of species in several regions in the world. However, it remains uncertain whether such climate oscillations had similar impact on East Asian biota, despite its widely recognized importance in global biodiversity. Here we use both molecular and ecological niche profiles on 11 East Asian avian species with various elevational ranges to reveal their response to the late Pleistocene climate changes. RESULTS: The ecological niche models (ENM) consistently showed that these avian species might substantially contract their ranges to the south during the Last Interglacial period (LIG) and expanded their northern range margins through the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), leading to the LGM ranges observed for all 11 species. Consistently, coalescent simulations based on 25-30 nuclear genes retrieved signatures of significant population growth through the last glacial period across all species studied. Climate statistics suggested that high climatic variability during the LIG and a relatively mild climate at the LGM potentially explained the historical population dynamics of these birds. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study based on multiple species and both lines of ecological niche profiles and genetic data to characterize the unique response of East Asian biota to late Pleistocene climate. The present study highlights regional differences in the evolutionary consequence of climate change during the last glacial cycle and implies that global warming might pose a great risk to species in this region given potentially higher climatic variation in the future analogous to that during the LIG.

Postglacial northward expansion and genetic differentiation between migratory and sedentary populations of the broad-tailed hummingbird (Selasphorus platycercus).

Unlike other migratory hummingbirds in North America, the broad-tailed hummingbird (Selasphorus platycercus) exhibits both long-distance migratory behaviour in the USA and sedentary behaviour in Mexico and Guatemala. We examined the evolution of migration linked to its northward expansion using a multiperspective approach. We analysed variation in morphology, mitochondrial and nuclear DNA, estimated migration rates between migratory and sedentary populations, compared divergence times with the occurrence of Quaternary climate events and constructed species distribution models to predict where migratory and sedentary populations resided during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Last Interglacial (LIG) events. Our results are consistent with a recent northward population expansion driven by migration from southern sedentary populations. Phylogeographical analyses and population genetics methods revealed that migratory populations in the USA and sedentary populations in Mexico of the platycercus subspecies form one admixed population, and that sedentary populations from southern Mexico and Guatemala (guatemalae) undertook independent evolutionary trajectories. Species distribution modelling revealed that the species is a niche tracker and that the climate conditions associated with modern obligate migrants in the USA were not present during the LIG, which provides indirect evidence for recent migratory behaviour in broad-tailed hummingbirds on the temporal scale of glacial cycles. The finding that platycercus hummingbirds form one genetic population and that suitable habitat for migratory populations was observed in eastern Mexico during the LIG also suggests that the conservation of overwintering sites is crucial for obligate migratory populations currently facing climate change effects.

WALIS dashboard: An online tool to explore a global paleo sea-level database.

In this paper, we present WALIS Dashboard, an open-access interface to the World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines (WALIS), which was developed and compiled thanks to funding from the European Research Council. WALIS is a database that includes thousands of samples (dated with different radiometric methods) and sea-level indicators formed during the Last Interglacial (~80 to 130 ka). The WALIS Dashboard was coded in R (shiny app), and allows querying a simplified version of WALIS by either geographic extent or by attributes. The user can then download the queried data and perform simple and reproducible data analysis. The WALIS Dashboard can be used both online and offline.

Tide gauges and satellites provide reliable measurements of sea-level changes since the beginning of the 20th century. To estimate sea-level changes before this period, we rely on sea-level indicators, i.e., geological features that were formed in close connection with sea level in the past, such as fossil shallow-water coral reefs or cemented beach deposits. Similar to tide gauge and satellite data, data on sea-level indicators are collected and standardised in databases, which are then made available to the scientific community (and the public at large) for further analysis. In this work, we present an open-source application that allows exploring, analysing, and downloading sea-level indicators included in the World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines (WALIS), a paleo sea-level database compiled thanks to funding from the European Research Council. The application aims to facilitate access to this information for researchers, students, and citizens by creating more interactive and intuitive ways to explore the scientific information contained in WALIS.

The Oyambre coastal terrace: a detailed sedimentary record of the Last Interglacial Stage in northern Iberia (Cantabrian coast, Spain).

A detailed study is presented of a 15.3-m-thick Pleistocene coastal terrace located on the Cantabrian coast (northern Spain). Stratigraphic, sedimentological, topographic and micropalaeontological information is combined with a chronology based on luminescence dating to characterize the deposits. The sedimentary succession records: (i) a basal transgressive system, consisting of a wave-cut surface covered by a lower layer of beach gravels and upper beach pebbly sands; and (ii) a thicker upper highstand system (aggrading), comprising medium to very fine aeolian sands interbedded with thin palustrine muds. Luminescence dating involved a detailed sampling strategy (36 samples and two modern analogues) and the use of both quartz optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and feldspar post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence single aliquot regeneration protocols; feldspar results were used to confirm the completeness of bleaching of the quartz OSL signal. The quartz OSL luminescence age-depth relationship shows significant dispersion, but nevertheless two rapid phases of deposition can be clearly identified: one at ~130 ka [Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 5] and one at ~100 ka (MIS 5c). The top of the succession is dated to ~70 ka. The MIS 5e marine maximum flooding surface is identified at an elevation of 6.85 m above mean seal level. This elevation provides evidence of a regional sea-level highstand for this sector of the Cantabrian coast.

Predictive modelling of the distribution of Clematis sect. Fruticella s. str. under climate change reveals a range expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum.

BACKGROUND: The knowledge of distributional dynamics of living organisms is a prerequisite for protecting biodiversity and for the sustainable use of biotic resources. Clematis sect. Fruticella s. str. is a small group of shrubby, yellow-flowered species distributed mainly in arid and semi-arid areas of China. Plants in this section are both horticulturally and ecologically important. METHODS: Using past, present, and future environmental variables and data with Maximum Entropy (Maxent) modeling, we evaluated the importance of the environmental variables on the section's estimated distributions, thus simulating its distributional dynamics over time. The contractions and expansions of suitable habitat between the past and future scenarios and the present were then compared. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The models revealed that the areas with high and moderate suitability currently encompass about 725,110 km2. The distribution centroid location varies between points in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia during the different scenarios. Elevation, Mean UV-B of Lowest Month, Precipitation of Coldest Quarter, and Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter were major factors determining the section's distribution. Our modeling indicated that Clematis sect. Fruticella underwent a significant range contraction during the last interglacial period, and then expanded during the last glacial maximum (LGM) to amounts like those of the present. Cold, dry, and relatively stable climate, as well as steppe or desert steppe environments may have facilitated range expansion of this cold-adapted, drought-resistant plant taxon during the LGM. Predicted future scenarios show little change in the amounts of suitable habitat for Clematis sect. Fruticella. This study aids understanding of the distributional dynamics of Clematis sect. Fruticella, and the results will help the conservation and sustainable use of these important woody plants in Chinese arid and semiarid areas.

Coupling of palaeontological and neontological reef coral data improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change.

Reef corals are currently undergoing climatically driven poleward range expansions, with some evidence for equatorial range retractions. Predicting their response to future climate scenarios is critical to their conservation, but ecological models are based only on short-term observations. The fossil record provides the only empirical evidence for the long-term response of organisms under perturbed climate states. The palaeontological record from the Last Interglacial (LIG; 125 000 years ago), a time of global warming, suggests that reef corals experienced poleward range shifts and an equatorial decline relative to their modern distribution. However, this record is spatio-temporally biased, and existing methods cannot account for data absence. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to estimate reef corals' realized niche and LIG distribution, based on modern and fossil occurrences. We then make inferences about modelled habitability under two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Reef coral ranges during the LIG were comparable to the present, with no prominent equatorial decrease in habitability. Reef corals are likely to experience poleward range expansion and large equatorial declines under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. However, this range expansion is probably optimistic in the face of anthropogenic climate change. Incorporation of fossil data in niche models improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change.

How warm was the last interglacial? New model-data comparisons.

A Community Climate System Model, Version 3 (CCSM3) simulation for 125 ka during the Last Interglacial (LIG) is compared to two recent proxy reconstructions to evaluate surface temperature changes from modern times. The dominant forcing change from modern, the orbital forcing, modified the incoming solar insolation at the top of the atmosphere, resulting in large positive anomalies in boreal summer. Greenhouse gas concentrations are similar to those of the pre-industrial (PI) Holocene. CCSM3 simulates an enhanced seasonal cycle over the Northern Hemisphere continents with warming most developed during boreal summer. In addition, year-round warming over the North Atlantic is associated with a seasonal memory of sea ice retreat in CCSM3, which extends the effects of positive summer insolation anomalies on the high-latitude oceans to winter months. The simulated Arctic terrestrial annual warming, though, is much less than the observational evidence, suggesting either missing feedbacks in the simulation and/or interpretation of the proxies. Over Antarctica, CCSM3 cannot reproduce the large LIG warming recorded by the Antarctic ice cores, even with simulations designed to consider observed evidence of early LIG warmth in Southern Ocean and Antarctica records and the possible disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Comparisons with a HadCM3 simulation indicate that sea ice is important for understanding model polar responses. Overall, the models simulate little global annual surface temperature change, while the proxy reconstructions suggest a global annual warming at LIG (as compared to the PI Holocene) of approximately 1(°)C, though with possible spatial sampling biases. The CCSM3 SRES B1 (low scenario) future projections suggest high-latitude warmth similar to that reconstructed for the LIG may be exceeded before the end of this century.

Direct terrestrial-marine correlation demonstrates surprisingly late onset of the last interglacial in central Europe.

An interdisciplinary study of a small sedimentary basin at Neumark Nord 2 (NN2), Germany, has yielded a high-resolution record of the palaeomagnetic Blake Event, which we are able to place at the early part of the last interglacial pollen sequence documented from the same section. We use this data to calculate the duration of this stratigraphically important event at 3400 ± 350 yr. More importantly, the Neumark Nord 2 data enables precise terrestrial-marine correlation for the Eemian stage in central Europe. This shows a remarkably large time lag of ca. 5000 yr between the MIS 5e 'peak' in the marine record and the start of the last interglacial in this region.