Stromal invasion pattern identifies patients at lowest risk of lymph node metastasis in HPV-associated endocervical adenocarcinomas, but is irrelevant in adenocarcinomas unassociated with HPV.

OBJECTIVE: The Silva invasion pattern-based classification system stratifies endocervical adenocarcinomas (ECAs) into 3 categories corresponding to risk of metastasis and recurrence, but has only been evaluated for HPV-associated ECAs of usual type. We examined whether the Silva system is applicable to all endocervical adenocarcinomas, especially those not associated with HPV. METHODS: Complete slide sets from 341 surgical specimens of ECA were collected from 7 institutions worldwide. All specimens were associated with clinical records covering at least 5 years of follow-up. Tumors were classified as HPV-associated (HPVA) or not (NHPVA) by both morphology and detection of HPV using in situ hybridization. Recurrence and survival were analyzed by multivariate Mantel-Haenszel methods. RESULTS: Most specimens (292; 85.6%) were HPVA, while 49 (14.3%) were NHPVA. All NHPVAs were Silva pattern C, while 76.0% of HPVAs were pattern C, 14.7% pattern A, and 9.3% pattern B. Including both HPVAs and NHPVAs, lymphovascular invasion (LVI) was detected in 0% of pattern A, 18.5% of pattern B and 62.6% of pattern C cases (p < 0.001). None of the pattern A or B cases were associated with lymph node metastases (LNM), in contrast to pattern C cases (21.8%). Among patients with Silva pattern C ECA, those with HPVA tumors had a lower recurrence rate and better survival than those with NHPVA; however, when adjusted for stage at diagnosis, the difference in recurrence and mortality was small and not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Application of the Silva system is only relevant in HPVA cervical adenocarcinoma.

Infertility and incident endometrial cancer risk: a pooled analysis from the epidemiology of endometrial cancer consortium (E2C2).

BACKGROUND: Nulliparity is an endometrial cancer risk factor, but whether or not this association is due to infertility is unclear. Although there are many underlying infertility causes, few studies have assessed risk relations by specific causes. METHODS: We conducted a pooled analysis of 8153 cases and 11 713 controls from 2 cohort and 12 case-control studies. All studies provided self-reported infertility and its causes, except for one study that relied on data from national registries. Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Nulliparous women had an elevated endometrial cancer risk compared with parous women, even after adjusting for infertility (OR=1.76; 95% CI: 1.59-1.94). Women who reported infertility had an increased risk compared with those without infertility concerns, even after adjusting for nulliparity (OR=1.22; 95% CI: 1.13-1.33). Among women who reported infertility, none of the individual infertility causes were substantially related to endometrial cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Based on mainly self-reported infertility data that used study-specific definitions of infertility, nulliparity and infertility appeared to independently contribute to endometrial cancer risk. Understanding residual endometrial cancer risk related to infertility, its causes and its treatments may benefit from large studies involving detailed data on various infertility parameters.

Mammographic density, MRI background parenchymal enhancement and breast cancer risk.

Mammographic density (MD), representing connective and epithelial tissue (fibroglandular tissue, FGT) is a major risk factor for breast cancer. In an analysis of an autopsy series (Bartow SA, Pathak DR, Mettler FA. Radiographic microcalcification and parenchymal patterns as indicators of histologic "high-risk" benign breast disease. Cancer 1990; 66: 1721-1725, Bartow SA, Pathak DR, Mettler FA et al. Breast mammographic pattern: a concatenation of confounding and breast cancer risk factors. Am J Epidemiol 1995; 142: 813-819), MD was found to be strongly correlated with the collagen and epithelial content of the breast (Li T, Sun L, Miller N et al. The association of measured breast tissue characteristics with MD and other risk factors for breast cancer. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2005; 14: 343-349), and another report showed that breast epithelium was highly concentrated in the areas of collagen concentration (Hawes D, Downey S, Pearce CL et al. Dense breast stromal tissue shows greatly increased concentration of breast epithelium but no increase in its proliferative activity. Breast Cancer Res 2006; 8: R24). Collagen comprises the overwhelming majority of the FGT, occupying an area on the slides obtained from the autopsy series some 15 times the area of glandular tissue. The relationship of MD with breast cancer risk appears likely to be due to a major extent to increasing epithelial cell numbers with increasing MD. FGT is also seen in breast magnetic resonance imaging (breast MRI) and, as expected, it has been shown that this measure of FGT (MRI-FGT) is highly correlated with MD. A contrast-enhanced breast MRI shows that normal FGT 'enhances' (background parenchymal enhancement, BPE) after contrast agent is administered(Morris EA. Diagnostic breast MR imaging: current status and future directions. Radiol Clin North Am 2007; 45: 863-880, vii., Kuhl C. The current status of breast MR imaging. Part I. Choice of technique, image interpretation, diagnostic accuracy, and transfer to clinical practice. Radiology 2007; 244: 356-378), and a recent study suggests that BPE is also a major breast cancer risk factor, possibly as important as, and independent of MD (King V, Brooks JD, Bernstein JL et al. BPE at breast MR imaging and breast cancer risk. Radiology 2011; 260: 50-60). BPE is much more sensitive to the effects of menopause and tamoxifen than is FGT (King V, Gu Y, Kaplan JB et al. Impact of menopausal status on BPE and fibroglandular tissue on breast MRI. Eur Radiol 2012; 22: 2641-2647, King V, Kaplan J, Pike MC et al. Impact of tamoxifen on amount of fibroglandular tissue, BPE, and cysts on breast MRI. Breast J 2012; 18: 527-534). Changes in MD and BPE may be most useful in predicting response to chemopreventive agents aimed at blocking breast cell proliferation. More study of the biological basis of the effects of MD and BPE is needed if we are to fully exploit these factors in developing chemopreventive approaches to breast cancer.

Tagging single-nucleotide polymorphisms in candidate oncogenes and susceptibility to ovarian cancer.

Low-moderate risk alleles that are relatively common in the population may explain a significant proportion of the excess familial risk of ovarian cancer (OC) not attributed to highly penetrant genes. In this study, we evaluated the risks of OC associated with common germline variants in five oncogenes (BRAF, ERBB2, KRAS, NMI and PIK3CA) known to be involved in OC development. Thirty-four tagging SNPs in these genes were genotyped in approximately 1800 invasive OC cases and 3000 controls from population-based studies in Denmark, the United Kingdom and the United States. We found no evidence of disease association for SNPs in BRAF, KRAS, ERBB2 and PIK3CA when OC was considered as a single disease phenotype; but after stratification by histological subtype, we found borderline evidence of association for SNPs in KRAS and BRAF with mucinous OC and in ERBB2 and PIK3CA with endometrioid OC. For NMI, we identified a SNP (rs11683487) that was associated with a decreased risk of OC (unadjusted P(dominant)=0.004). We then genotyped rs11683487 in another 1097 cases and 1792 controls from an additional three case-control studies from the United States. The combined odds ratio was 0.89 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.80-0.99) and remained statistically significant (P(dominant)=0.032). We also identified two haplotypes in ERBB2 associated with an increased OC risk (P(global)=0.034) and a haplotype in BRAF that had a protective effect (P(global)=0.005). In conclusion, these data provide borderline evidence of association for common allelic variation in the NMI with risk of epithelial OC.

Urinary tract infections and reduced risk of bladder cancer in Los Angeles.

We investigated the association between urinary tract infections (UTIs) and transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder in a population-based case-control study in Los Angeles covering 1586 cases and age-, gender-, and race-matched neighbourhood controls. A history of bladder infection was associated with a reduced risk of bladder cancer among women (odds ratio (OR), 0.66; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.46-0.96). No effect was found in men, perhaps due to power limitations. A greater reduction in bladder cancer risk was observed among women with multiple infections (OR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.18-0.78). Exclusion of subjects with a history of diabetes, kidney or bladder stones did not change the inverse association. A history of kidney infections was not associated with bladder cancer risk, but there was a weak association between a history of other UTIs and slightly increased risk among men. Our results suggest that a history of bladder infection is associated with a reduced risk of bladder cancer among women. Cytotoxicity from antibiotics commonly used to treat bladder infections is proposed as one possible explanation.

Progesterone receptor variation and risk of ovarian cancer is limited to the invasive endometrioid subtype: results from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium pooled analysis.

There is evidence that progesterone plays a role in the aetiology of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer. Therefore, genes involved in pathways that regulate progesterone may be candidates for susceptibility to this disease. Previous studies have suggested that genetic variants in the progesterone receptor gene (PGR) may be associated with ovarian cancer risk, although results have been inconsistent. We have established an international consortium to pool resources and data from many ovarian cancer case-control studies in an effort to identify variants that influence risk. In this study, three PGR single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), for which previous data have suggested they affect ovarian cancer risk, were examined. These were +331 C/T (rs10895068), PROGINS (rs1042838), and a 3' variant (rs608995). A total of 4788 ovarian cancer cases and 7614 controls from 12 case-control studies were included in this analysis. Unconditional logistic regression was used to model the association between each SNP and ovarian cancer risk and two-sided P-values are reported. Overall, risk of ovarian cancer was not associated with any of the three variants studied. However, in histopathological subtype analyses, we found a statistically significant association between risk of endometrioid ovarian cancer and the PROGINS allele (n=651, OR=1.17, 95% CI=1.01-1.36, P=0.036). We also observed borderline evidence of an association between risk of endometrioid ovarian cancer and the +331C/T variant (n=725 cases; OR=0.80, 95% CI 0.62-1.04, P=0.100). These data suggest that while these three variants in the PGR are not associated with ovarian cancer overall, the PROGINS variant may play a modest role in risk of endometrioid ovarian cancer.

Epidemiology of soy exposures and breast cancer risk.

Most of the early studies published on soy and breast cancer were not designed to test the effect of soy; the assessment of soy intake was usually crude and few potential confounders were considered in the analysis. In this review, we focused on studies with relatively complete assessment of dietary soy exposure in the targeted populations and appropriate consideration for potential confounders in the statistical analysis of study data. Meta-analysis of the 8 (1 cohort, 7 case-control) studies conducted in high-soy-consuming Asians show a significant trend of decreasing risk with increasing soy food intake. Compared to the lowest level of soy food intake (or=20 mg isoflavones per day). In contrast, soy intake was unrelated to breast cancer risk in studies conducted in the 11 low-soy-consuming Western populations whose average highest and lowest soy isoflavone intake levels were around 0.8 and 0.15 mg per day, respectively. Thus, the evidence to date, based largely on case-control studies, suggest that soy food intake in the amount consumed in Asian populations may have protective effects against breast cancer.

Prospective study of grapefruit intake and risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal women: the Multiethnic Cohort Study.

In vitro and in vivo studies have shown that cytochrome P450 3A4 (CYP3A4) is involved in the metabolism of oestrogens. There is evidence that grapefruit, an inhibitor of CYP3A4, increases plasma oestrogen concentrations. Since it is well established that oestrogen is associated with breast cancer risk, it is plausible that regular intake of grapefruit would increase a woman's risk of breast cancer. We investigated the association of grapefruit intake with breast cancer risk in the Hawaii-Los Angeles Multiethnic Cohort Study, a prospective cohort that includes over 50 000 postmenopausal women from five racial/ethnic groups. A total of 1657 incident breast cancer cases were available for analysis. Grapefruit intake was significantly associated with an increased risk of breast cancer (relative risk=1.30, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.58) for subjects in the highest category of intake, that is, one-quarter grapefruit or more per day, compared to non-consumers (P(trend)=0.015). An increased risk of similar magnitude was seen in users of oestrogen therapy, users of oestrogen+progestin therapy, and among never users of hormone therapy. Grapefruit intake may increase the risk of breast cancer among postmenopausal women.

Active and passive smoking and the risk of breast cancer in women aged 36-45 years: a population based case-control study in the UK.

Active smoking has little or no effect on breast cancer risk but some investigators have suggested that passive smoking and its interaction with active smoking may be associated with an increased risk. In a population based case-control study of breast cancer in women aged 36-45 years at diagnosis, information on active smoking, passive smoking in the home, and other factors, was collected at interview from 639 cases and 640 controls. Women were categorised jointly by their active and passive smoking exposure. Among never smoking controls, women who also reported no passive smoking exposure were significantly more likely to be nulliparous and to be recent users of oral contraceptives. Among those never exposed to passive smoking, there was no significant association between active smoking and breast cancer, relative risk (RR) of 1.12 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72-1.73) for past smokers and RR of 1.19 (95% CI 0.72-1.95) for current smokers, nor was there an association with age started, duration or intensity of active smoking. Compared with women who were never active nor passive smokers, there was no significant association between passive smoking in the home and breast cancer risk in never smokers, RR of 0.89 (95% CI 0.64-1.25), in past smokers, RR of 1.09 (95% CI 0.75-1.56), or in current smokers, RR of 0.93 (95% CI 0.67-1.30). There was no trend with increasing duration of passive smoking and there was no heterogeneity among any of the subgroups examined. In this study, there was no evidence of an association between either active smoking or passive smoking in the home and risk of breast cancer.

Estrogens, progestins, and risk of breast cancer.

Obesity is associated with a decreased risk of breast cancer in premenopausal women but an increased risk in postmenopausal women, an effect that increases with time since menopause. Analysis of these effects of obesity shows that there is a ceiling to the carcinogenic effect of estrogen on the breast; increases in nonsex hormone-binding globulin-bound estradiol (non-SHBG bound E2) exceeding approximately 10.2 pg/ml have no further effect on breast cancer risk; this ceiling is lower than the lowest level seen during the menstrual cycle. This suggests that the effects of menopausal estrogen therapy (ET) and menopausal estrogen-progestin therapy (EPT) on a woman's breast cancer risk will greatly depend on her body mass index (BMI; weight in kilograms/height in meters squared, kg/m2) with the largest effects being in slender women. Epidemiological studies confirm this prediction. Our best estimates, per 5 years of use, of the effects of ET on breast cancer risk is a 30% increase in a woman with a BMI of 20 kg/m2 decreasing to an 8% increase in a woman with a BMI of 30 kg/m2; the equivalent figures for EPT are 50% and 26%. The analysis of the effects of estrogen also shows that even reducing the dose of estrogen in ET and EPT by as much as a half will have little or no effect on these risks. Reducing the progestin dose is likely to significantly reduce the risk of EPT: this is possible with an endometrial route of administration.

A candidate gene approach to searching for low-penetrance breast and prostate cancer genes.

Most cases of breast and prostate cancer are not associated with mutations in known high-penetrance genes, indicating the involvement of multiple low-penetrance risk alleles. Studies that have attempted to identify these genes have met with limited success. The National Cancer Institute Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium--a pooled analysis of multiple large cohort studies with a total of more than 5,000 cases of breast cancer and 8,000 cases of prostate cancer--was therefore initiated. The goal of this consortium is to characterize variations in approximately 50 genes that mediate two pathways that are associated with these cancers--the steroid-hormone metabolism pathway and the insulin-like growth factor signalling pathway--and to associate these variations with cancer risk.

Body fatness and physical activity at young ages and the risk of breast cancer in premenopausal women.

We examined the relationship between body fatness, sports participation and breast cancer risk in 1560 premenopausal cases and 1548 controls, from three related population-based case-control studies in the UK. Half of the women with breast cancer were aged less than 36 years at diagnosis. Women who perceived themselves as plump at age 10 years had a relative risk of 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.69-0.99, P = 0.03) as compared with those who perceived themselves as thin. Self-reported obesity compared with leanness at diagnosis was associated with a relative risk of 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.56-1.06, P = 0.11). Women who reported having been plump at age 10 years and overweight or obese at diagnosis had a relative risk of 0.75 (95% confidence interval 0.56-1.01, P = 0.06) as compared with those who reported being thin at age 10 years and at diagnosis. Findings for three related measures of body fatness suggested that obesity is associated with a reduced risk of premenopausal breast cancer. There was no association between sports participation and breast cancer risk in these premenopausal women. The relative risk for spending an average of more than 1 h per week in sports compared with less from ages 12 to 30 years was 1.00 (95% CI 0.86-1.16, P = 0.98).

An overview of menopausal oestrogen-progestin hormone therapy and breast cancer risk.

Results from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) trial support findings from observational studies that oestrogen-progestin therapy (EPT) use is associated with an increase in breast cancer risk. We conducted a meta-analysis using EPT-specific results from the Collaborative Group on Hormonal Factors in Breast Cancer (CGHFBC) pooled analysis and studies published since that report to obtain an overview of EPT use and breast cancer risk. We also assessed risk by histologic subtype of breast cancer, by schedule of the progestin component of EPT, and by recency of use. We estimate that overall, EPT results in a 7.6% increase in breast cancer risk per year of use. The risk was statistically significantly lower in US studies than in European studies - 5.2 vs 7.9%. There was a significantly higher risk for continuous-combined than for sequential EPT use in Scandinavian studies where much higher total doses of progestin were used in continuous-combined than in sequential EPT. We observed no overall difference in risk for lobular vs ductal carcinoma but did observe a slightly higher risk for current vs past EPT use.

Does place of birth influence endogenous hormone levels in Asian-American women?

In 1983-87, we conducted a population-based case-control study of breast cancer in Asian women living in California and Hawaii, in which migration history (a composite of the subject's place of birth, usual residence in Asia (urban/rural), length of time living in the West, and grandparents' place of birth) was associated with a six-fold risk gradient that paralleled the historical differences in incidence rates between the US and Asian countries. This provided the opportunity to determine whether endogenous hormones vary with migration history in Asian-American women. Plasma obtained from 316 premenopausal and 177 naturally premenopausal study controls was measured for levels of estrone (E1), estradiol (E2), estrone sulphate (E1S), androstenedione (A), testosterone (T), dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS), progesterone (PROG) and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG). Levels of the oestrogens and sex hormone-binding globulin did not differ significantly between Asian- and Western-born women, although among premenopausal women, those least westernised had the lowest levels of E1, E2, and E1S. Androgen levels, particularly DHEA, were lower in women born in the West. Among premenopausal women, age-adjusted geometric mean levels of DHEA were 16.5 and 13.8 nmol l(-1) in Asian- and Western-born women respectively; in postmenopausal women these values were 11.8 and 9.2 nmol l(-1), (P<0.001) respectively. Among postmenopausal women, androgens tended to be highest among the least westernised women and declined as the degree of westernisation increased. Our findings suggest that aspects of hormone metabolism play a role in population differences in breast cancer incidence.

Ethnic differences in ovulatory function in nulliparous women.

African-American women have a long-standing approximately 20% higher breast cancer incidence rate than USA White women under age 40 while rates among Latinas are lower than those of Whites. The reasons for this are not clear, however they may be due to ethnic differences in circulating oestradiol and progesterone levels. In a cross-sectional study, we investigated whether anovulation frequency and circulating serum oestradiol and/or progesterone levels vary among normally cycling nulliparous African-American (n=60), Latina (n=112) and non-Latina White (n=69) women. Blood and urine specimens were collected over two menstrual cycles among healthy 17- to 34-year-old women. Frequency of anovulation was greater among White women (nine out of 63, 14.3%) than African-American women (four out of 56, 7.1%) or Latina women (seven out of 102, 6.9%), although these differences were not statistically significant. African-American women had 9.9% (P=0.26) higher follicular phase oestradiol concentrations than Latina women and 17.4% (P=0.13) higher levels than White women. African-American women also had considerably higher levels of luteal phase oestradiol (vs Latinas, +9.4%, P=0.14; vs Whites, +25.3%, P=0.003) and progesterone (vs Latinas, +15.4%, P=0.07; vs Whites, +36.4%, P=0.002). Latina women were also observed to have higher follicular oestradiol, and luteal oestradiol and progesterone levels than White women (follicular oestradiol: +6.8%, P=0.48; luteal oestradiol: +14.6%, P=0.04; luteal progesterone: +18.2%, P=0.06). These results suggest that exposure to endogenous steroid hormones may be greater for young African-American and Latina women than for Whites.

Germ-line HER-2 variant and breast cancer risk by stage of disease.

HER-2 gene amplification and protein overexpression has been associated with increased risk of advanced-stage breast cancer and poor prognosis. Recently, a single missense point mutation (Ile(655)Val) in the transmembrane domain of the HER-2 gene was associated with a 40% increase in breast cancer risk among women 45 years of age and younger. In this analysis, we measured the association between the Ile(655)Val variant and postmenopausal breast cancer among women participating in the Hawaii and Los Angeles Multiethnic Cohort. Risk of localized breast cancer was significantly elevated among women with the HER-2 variant, but not among women with regional or metastatic disease. Women with at least one copy of the Valine variant were approximately one-half as likely to have high-stage as low-stage breast cancer (P =.02), and this effect was present across racial/ethnic groups.

Reversal of gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist induced reductions in mammographic densities on stopping treatment.

Previously, we described the reduction in mammographic densities that occurred in premenopausal women after 12 months on a hormonal regimen designed to be chemopreventive for breast (and ovarian) cancer consisting of a gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist (GnRHA) plus low-dose add-back estrogen-progestin. We sought to determine whether the density reduction persisted with continuation of the regimen for 24 months, and, if so, whether the densities would return to baseline after the regimen was discontinued. Twenty-one women, 27-40 years of age, with a 5-fold greater than normal risk of breast cancer, were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio to the treatment group (14 women) and to a control group (7 women). The percentage of mammographic densities, calculated as the proportion of the breast area on the mammogram containing densities, were assessed blindly using a computer-based threshold method at baseline, after 12 and 24 months of treatment, and at between 6 and 12 months after treatment was stopped. The previously described percentage of mammographic density reductions of 9.7% (P = 0.012) after 12 months of treatment were increased slightly to 11.4% (P = 0.010) after 24 months of treatment, but the additional change was not statistically significant. Ten of 11 treated women assessed at 24 months had reduced percentages of mammographic densities compared with baseline. Six to 12 months after completion of treatment, the mean percentage of mammographic density in the treated group was no different from that at baseline (mean decline of 2.0%; P = 0.73). The women in the control group had no statistically significant changes in densities over the period of the study. Reductions in mammographic densities engendered by the GnRHA plus a low-dose add-back estrogen-progestin regimen persist as long as the women receive treatment. The densities return to baseline when the women resume normal menstrual cycles. These results confirm that mammographic densities are influenced by ovarian function. Improved efficacy of mammographic screening is to be expected as long as a woman continues on such a regimen. Whether such a regimen is chemopreventive for breast cancer remains to be established, but the recent report on a randomized trial of use of GnRHA alone in premenopausal breast cancer cases showing a marked reduction in incidence of contralateral disease provides strong support for the hypothesis.

Mammographic density changes during the menstrual cycle.

The ability to detect small tumors is impaired in dense mammograms. It has been suggested that the sensitivity of mammograms could be lower in mammograms obtained during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle. We examined the change in mammographic density from the follicular to the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle in 11 women. Although the average increase in densities was quite small (1.2%; P = 0.08), six women had clinically significant increases (1.4-7.8%), suggesting that premenopausal women should undergo mammographic examinations in the follicular part of the menstrual cycle.

Risk of endometrial cancer and estrogen replacement therapy history by CYP17 genotype.

Common variants among genes coding for enzymes in sex steroid biosynthetic pathways may influence the risk of endometrial cancer. We examined the association between endometrial cancer risk and estrogen replacement therapy (ERT) by CYP17 genotype using 51 incident cases and 391 randomly selected controls from a multiethnic cohort in Hawaii and Los Angeles, California. The relative risk of endometrial cancer was calculated for ever use versus never use of ERT by CYP17 genotype (TT, TC, and CC). We found that women who reported ever taking ERT were more than twice as likely to develop endometrial cancer as women who never took ERT [odds ratio (OR), 2.24; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.19-4.23]. Among these women, the risk of endometrial cancer was higher for women homozygous for the CYP17 T allele (OR, 4.10; 95% CI, 1.64-10.3), but not for women with the C allele (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.53-3.21). These preliminary findings suggest that CYP17 or other variants in estrogen biosynthesis or metabolism pathways may be potential markers of endometrial cancer susceptibility due to ERT.

Progestins and menopause: epidemiological studies of risks of endometrial and breast cancer.

Estrogen replacement therapy (ERT) increases a woman's risk of developing endometrial cancer approximately 120% for each 5 years of use. ERT increases a woman's risk of developing breast cancer approximately 10% for each 5 years of use. To reduce the greatly increased endometrial cancer risk, progestins have been added to ERT (estrogen-progestin replacement therapy; EPRT) for between 5 and 15 days (usually 7 or 10 days) per month in a sequential fashion (sequential EPRT; SEPRT) or with each dose of ERT (continuous-combined EPRT; CEPRT). We conducted two large case-control studies in postmenopausal women in Los Angeles to evaluate the effects of these changes on endometrial and breast cancer risks. As expected CEPRT was not associated with any increased risk of endometrial cancer. SEPRT with the progestin being given for 10 days per month also did not increase endometrial cancer risk. SEPRT with the progestin being given for 7 days per month did increase endometrial cancer risk with only a relatively slight reduction in risk compared to ERT effectively proportional to the reduction in the number of days of unopposed estrogen. The sharp contrast between the effects of 7 days and 10 days of progestin in SEPRT suggests that the extent of endometrial sloughing or of 'terminal' differentiation at the completion of the progestin phase may play a critical role in determining endometrial cancer risk. This may provide an explanation of why endometrial cancer risk increases so sharply with age in young women even in countries where obesity-associated anovulation is very uncommon; extended periods of unopposed estrogen is not an explanation but less than 10 days of an 'adequate' progesterone level may be. EPRT significantly increased the risk of breast cancer. EPRT was associated with an approximately 24% increase in risk for each 5 years of use; the effect was some 212-fold greater than the effect of ERT, which we had previously predicted on theoretical grounds. This effect could also be predicted from the results on mammographic densities seen in the PEPI randomized trial of different forms of hormone replacement therapy (HRT). In the PEPI trial EPRT increased mammographic densities to a much greater extent than ERT. Progestins need to be given to protect the endometrium. They need to be delivered to the endometrium in a manner that will have the least effect on the breast. This can be carried out by using a vaginal or direct endometrial route of administration. The vaginal route will provide adequate endometrial progestin levels with low blood levels so that the effects of the progestin on the breast should be small; with the direct endometrial route the blood progestin levels are even lower, and the effects of the progestin on the breast will be effectively zero. If this is unacceptable to a woman, then giving progestins by mouth (or transdermally) for 10 days every 3 to 4 months should provide satisfactory protection of the endometrium when used with standard-dose conjugated estrogen (CE). This regimen has much less effect on the breast than monthly SEPRT or CEPRT. Two clinical trials of 10 mg per day of MPA for 14 days every 3 months and 0.625 mg/day of CE have been published. Both studies suggest that this approach may be satisfactory in that the extent of hyperplasia was minimal. More studies of this approach are urgently needed.