A prospective study on the prevalence of MASLD in people with type-2 diabetes in the community. Cost effectiveness of screening strategies.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: As screening for the liver disease and risk-stratification pathways are not established in patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), we evaluated the diagnostic performance and the cost-utility of different screening strategies for MASLD in the community. METHODS: Consecutive patients with T2DM from primary care underwent screening for liver diseases, ultrasound, ELF score and transient elastography (TE). Five strategies were compared to the standard of care: ultrasound plus abnormal liver function tests (LFTs), Fibrosis score-4 (FIB-4), NAFLD fibrosis score, Enhanced liver fibrosis test (ELF) and TE. Standard of care was defined as abnormal LFTs prompting referral to hospital. A Markov model was built based on the fibrosis stage, defined by TE. We generated the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a lifetime horizon. RESULTS: Of 300 patients, 287 were included: 64% (186) had MASLD and 10% (28) had other causes of liver disease. Patients with significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis due to MASLD were 17% (50/287), 11% (31/287) and 3% (8/287), respectively. Among those with significant fibrosis classified by LSM≥8.1 kPa, false negatives were 54% from ELF and 38% from FIB-4. On multivariate analysis, waist circumference, BMI, AST levels and education rank were independent predictors of significant and advanced fibrosis. All the screening strategies were associated with QALY gains, with TE (148.73 years) having the most substantial gains, followed by FIB-4 (134.07 years), ELF (131.68 years) and NAFLD fibrosis score (121.25 years). In the cost-utility analysis, ICER was £2480/QALY for TE, £2541.24/QALY for ELF and £2059.98/QALY for FIB-4. CONCLUSION: Screening for MASLD in the diabetic population in primary care is cost-effective and should become part of a holistic assessment. However, traditional screening strategies, including FIB-4 and ELF, underestimate the presence of significant liver disease in this setting.

Metabolic Profile Reflects Stages of Fibrosis in Patients with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a leading cause of chronic liver disease worldwide, with fibrosis stage being the main predictor for clinical outcomes. Here, we present the metabolic profile of NAFLD patients with regards to fibrosis progression. We included all consecutive new referrals for NAFLD services between 2011 and 2019. Demographic, anthropometric and clinical features and noninvasive markers of fibrosis were recorded at baseline and at follow-up. Significant and advanced fibrosis were defined using liver stiffness measurement (LSM) as LSM ≥ 8.1 kPa and LSM ≥ 12.1 kPa, respectively. Cirrhosis was diagnosed either histologically or clinically. Fast progressors of fibrosis were defined as those with delta stiffness ≥ 1.03 kPa/year (25% upper quartile of delta stiffness distribution). Targeted and untargeted metabolic profiles were analysed on fasting serum samples using Proton nuclear magnetic resonance (1H NMR). A total of 189 patients were included in the study; 111 (58.7%) underwent liver biopsy. Overall, 11.1% patients were diagnosed with cirrhosis, while 23.8% were classified as fast progressors. A combination of metabolites and lipoproteins could identify the fast fibrosis progressors (AUROC 0.788, 95% CI: 0.703-0.874, p < 0.001) and performed better than noninvasive markers. Specific metabolic profiles predict fibrosis progression in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Algorithms combining metabolites and lipids could be integrated in the risk-stratification of these patients.

The Intestinal Barrier and Its Dysfunction in Patients with Metabolic Diseases and Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) represents an increasing cause of liver disease worldwide, mirroring the epidemics of obesity and metabolic syndrome. As there are still no licensed medications for treating the disease, there is an ongoing effort to elucidate the pathophysiology and to discover new treatment pathways. An increasing body of evidence has demonstrated a crosstalk between the gut and the liver, which plays a crucial role in the development and progression of liver disease. Among other intestinal factors, gut permeability represents an interesting factor at the interface of the gut-liver axis. In this narrative review, we summarise the evidence from human studies showing the association between increased gut permeability and NAFLD, as well as with type-2 diabetes and obesity. We also discuss the manipulation of the gut permeability as a potential therapeutical target in patients with NAFLD.

Gut Microbiota-A Future Therapeutic Target for People with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Systematic Review.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) represents an increasing cause of liver disease, affecting one-third of the population worldwide. Despite many medications being in the pipeline to treat the condition, there is still no pharmaceutical agent licensed to treat the disease. As intestinal bacteria play a crucial role in the pathogenesis and progression of liver damage in patients with NAFLD, it has been suggested that manipulating the microbiome may represent a therapeutical option. In this review, we summarise the latest evidence supporting the manipulation of the intestinal microbiome as a potential therapy for treating liver disease in patients with NAFLD.

Clinical Characteristics and Predictors of Outcomes of Hospitalized Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 in a Multiethnic London National Health Service Trust: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence suggests ethnic minorities are disproportionately affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Detailed clinical analyses of multicultural hospitalized patient cohorts remain largely undescribed. METHODS: We performed regression, survival, and cumulative competing risk analyses to evaluate factors associated with mortality in patients admitted for COVID-19 in 3 large London hospitals between 25 February and 5 April, censored as of 1 May 2020. RESULTS: Of 614 patients (median age, 69 [interquartile range, 25] years) and 62% male), 381 (62%) were discharged alive, 178 (29%) died, and 55 (9%) remained hospitalized at censoring. Severe hypoxemia (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.25 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.36-7.64]), leukocytosis (aOR, 2.35 [95% CI, 1.35-4.11]), thrombocytopenia (aOR [1.01, 95% CI, 1.00-1.01], increase per 109 decrease), severe renal impairment (aOR, 5.14 [95% CI, 2.65-9.97]), and low albumin (aOR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.02-1.09], increase per gram decrease) were associated with death. Forty percent (n = 244) were from black, Asian, and other minority ethnic (BAME) groups, 38% (n = 235) were white, and ethnicity was unknown for 22% (n = 135). BAME patients were younger and had fewer comorbidities. Although the unadjusted odds of death did not differ by ethnicity, when adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities, black patients were at higher odds of death compared to whites (aOR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.00-2.86]). This association was stronger when further adjusting for admission severity (aOR, 1.85 [95% CI, 1.06-3.24]). CONCLUSIONS: BAME patients were overrepresented in our cohort; when accounting for demographic and clinical profile of admission, black patients were at increased odds of death. Further research is needed into biologic drivers of differences in COVID-19 outcomes by ethnicity.

Binge-eating disorder is associated with an unfavorable body mass composition in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

The interaction between eating disorders and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remains unexplored, especially with regards to binge-eating disorder (BED). Our team conducted a service evaluation project in order to assess risk factors for the presence of BED among patients with NAFLD and the impact of BED on body mass composition. The overall prevalence of patients screening positive to BED Screener-7 (BEDS-7) was 28.4%, while a previous diagnosis of depression and marital status (as single or separated) were independently associated with positive BED. Furthermore, patients with positive BEDS-7 had higher BMI, with greater visceral component and overall lower muscle mass. There was no difference in terms of liver disease severity as assessed by noninvasive markers of fibrosis. However, as body mass composition and sarcopenia have been shown to be associated to disease progression in patients with NAFLD, further studies are required to ascertain the long-term impact of BED in these patients. Moreover, further work is warranted to identify to implement multidisciplinary approach within clinical psychology for the management of patients with BED, who may be particularly challenging in terms of achieving lifestyle modifications. As a hepatology community, we should address NAFLD with a more holistic approach.

High-Throughput, Machine Learning-Based Quantification of Steatosis, Inflammation, Ballooning, and Fibrosis in Biopsies From Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver biopsy is the reference standard for staging and grading nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), but histologic scoring systems are semiquantitative with marked interobserver and intraobserver variation. We used machine learning to develop fully automated software for quantification of steatosis, inflammation, ballooning, and fibrosis in biopsy specimens from patients with NAFLD and validated the technology in a separate group of patients. METHODS: We collected data from 246 consecutive patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD and followed up in London from January 2010 through December 2016. Biopsy specimens from the first 100 patients were used to derive the algorithm and biopsy specimens from the following 146 were used to validate it. Biopsy specimens were scored independently by pathologists using the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network criteria and digitalized. Areas of steatosis, inflammation, ballooning, and fibrosis were annotated on biopsy specimens by 2 hepatobiliary histopathologists to facilitate machine learning. Images of biopsies from the derivation and validation sets then were analyzed by the algorithm to compute percentages of fat, inflammation, ballooning, and fibrosis, as well as the collagen proportionate area, and compared with findings from pathologists' manual annotations and conventional scoring systems. RESULTS: In the derivation group, results from manual annotation and the software had an interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.97 for steatosis (95% CI, 0.95-0.99; P < .001); ICC of 0.96 for inflammation (95% CI, 0.9-0.98; P < .001); ICC of 0.94 for ballooning (95% CI, 0.87-0.98; P < .001); and ICC of 0.92 for fibrosis (95% CI, 0.88-0.96; P = .001). Percentages of fat, inflammation, ballooning, and the collagen proportionate area from the derivation group were confirmed in the validation cohort. The software identified histologic features of NAFLD with levels of interobserver and intraobserver agreement ranging from 0.95 to 0.99; this value was higher than that of semiquantitative scoring systems, which ranged from 0.58 to 0.88. In a subgroup of paired liver biopsy specimens, quantitative analysis was more sensitive in detecting differences compared with the nonalcoholic steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network scoring system. CONCLUSIONS: We used machine learning to develop software to rapidly and objectively analyze liver biopsy specimens for histologic features of NAFLD. The results from the software correlate with those from histopathologists, with high levels of interobserver and intraobserver agreement. Findings were validated in a separate group of patients. This tool might be used for objective assessment of response to therapy for NAFLD in practice and clinical trials.

Detection of senescence using machine learning algorithms based on nuclear features.

Cellular senescence is a stress response with broad pathophysiological implications. Senotherapies can induce senescence to treat cancer or eliminate senescent cells to ameliorate ageing and age-related pathologies. However, the success of senotherapies is limited by the lack of reliable ways to identify senescence. Here, we use nuclear morphology features of senescent cells to devise machine-learning classifiers that accurately predict senescence induced by diverse stressors in different cell types and tissues. As a proof-of-principle, we use these senescence classifiers to characterise senolytics and to screen for drugs that selectively induce senescence in cancer cells but not normal cells. Moreover, a tissue senescence score served to assess the efficacy of senolytic drugs and identified senescence in mouse models of liver cancer initiation, ageing, and fibrosis, and in patients with fatty liver disease. Thus, senescence classifiers can help to detect pathophysiological senescence and to discover and validate potential senotherapies.

Multi-tissue profiling of oxylipins reveal a conserved up-regulation of epoxide:diol ratio that associates with white adipose tissue inflammation and liver steatosis in obesity.

BACKGROUND: Obesity drives maladaptive changes in the white adipose tissue (WAT) which can progressively cause insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and metabolic dysfunction-associated liver disease (MASLD). Obesity-mediated loss of WAT homeostasis can trigger liver steatosis through dysregulated lipid pathways such as those related to polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA)-derived oxylipins. However, the exact relationship between oxylipins and metabolic syndrome remains elusive and cross-tissue dynamics of oxylipins are ill-defined. METHODS: We quantified PUFA-related oxylipin species in the omental WAT, liver biopsies and plasma of 88 patients undergoing bariatric surgery (female N = 79) and 9 patients (female N = 4) undergoing upper gastrointestinal surgery, using UPLC-MS/MS. We integrated oxylipin abundance with WAT phenotypes (adipogenesis, adipocyte hypertrophy, macrophage infiltration, type I and VI collagen remodelling) and the severity of MASLD (steatosis, inflammation, fibrosis) quantified in each biopsy. The integrative analysis was subjected to (i) adjustment for known risk factors and, (ii) control for potential drug-effects through UPLC-MS/MS analysis of metformin-treated fat explants ex vivo. FINDINGS: We reveal a generalized down-regulation of cytochrome P450 (CYP)-derived diols during obesity conserved between the WAT and plasma. Notably, epoxide:diol ratio, indicative of soluble epoxide hydrolyse (sEH) activity, increases with WAT inflammation/fibrosis, hepatic steatosis and T2DM. Increased 12,13-EpOME:DiHOME in WAT and liver is a marker of worsening metabolic syndrome in patients with obesity. INTERPRETATION: These findings suggest a dampened sEH activity and a possible role of fatty acid diols during metabolic syndrome in major metabolic organs such as WAT and liver. They also have implications in view of the clinical trials based on sEH inhibition for metabolic syndrome. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust (PS3431_WMIH); Duke-NUS (Intramural Goh Cardiovascular Research Award (Duke-NUS-GCR/2022/0020); National Medical Research Council (OFLCG22may-0011); National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (Z01 ES025034); NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre.

Screening for NAFLD-Current Knowledge and Challenges.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of abnormal liver function tests worldwide, with an estimated prevalence ranging between 19-46% in the general population. Of note, NAFLD is also expected to become a leading cause of end-stage liver disease in the next decades. Given the high prevalence and severity of NAFLD, especially in high-risk populations (i.e., patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus and/or obesity), there is a major interest in early detection of the disease in primary care. Nevertheless, substantial uncertainties still surround the development of a screening policy for NAFLD, such as limitations in currently used non-invasive markers of fibrosis, cost-effectiveness and the absence of a licensed treatment. In this review, we summarise current knowledge and try to identify the limitations surrounding the screening policy for NAFLD in primary care.

Fibrosis severity scoring on Sirius red histology with multiple-instance deep learning.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is now the leading cause of chronic liver disease, affecting approximately 30% of people worldwide. Histopathology reading of fibrosis patterns is crucial to diagnosing NAFLD. In particular, separating mild from severe stages corresponds to a critical transition as it correlates with clinical outcomes. Deep Learning for digitized histopathology whole-slide images (WSIs) can reduce high inter- and intra-rater variability. We demonstrate a novel solution to score fibrosis severity on a retrospective cohort of 152 Sirius-Red WSIs, with fibrosis stage annotated at slide level by an expert pathologist. We exploit multiple instance learning and multiple-inferences to address the sparsity of pathological signs. We achieved an accuracy of , an F1 score of and an AUC of . These results set new state-of-the-art benchmarks for this application.

Applying Lipidomics to Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Clinical Perspective.

The prevalence of Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and associated complications, such as hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), is growing worldwide, due to the epidemics of metabolic risk factors, such as obesity and type II diabetes. Among other factors, an aberrant lipid metabolism represents a crucial step in the pathogenesis of NAFLD and the development of HCC in this population. In this review, we summarize the evidence supporting the application of translational lipidomics in NAFLD patients and NAFLD associated HCC in clinical practice.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in women - Current knowledge and emerging concepts.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a major cause of liver disease worldwide, affecting up to 30% of adults. Progression to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a key risk factor for cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and cardiovascular events. Alterations in reproductive hormones are linked to the development and/or progression of NAFLD/NASH in women. Women with polycystic ovary syndrome and those with oestrogen deficiency are at increased risk of NAFLD/NASH, with higher mortality rates in older women compared to men of similar ages. NAFLD/NASH is currently the leading indication for liver transplantation in women without hepatocellular carcinoma. Therefore, a better understanding of NAFLD in women is needed to improve outcomes. In this review, we discuss the hormonal and non-hormonal factors that contribute to NAFLD development and progression in women. Furthermore, we highlight areas of focus for clinical practice and for future research.

Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Vascular Disease.

Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) represents an increasing cause of liver disease worldwide. However, notably, the primary cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with NAFLD is cardiovascular disease (CVD), with fibrosis stage being the strongest disease-specific predictor. It is globally projected that NAFLD will become increasingly prevalent, especially among children and younger adults. As such, even within the next few years, NAFLD will contribute considerably to the overall CVD burden. In this review, we discuss the role of NAFLD as an emerging risk factor for CVD. In particular, this article aims to provide an overview of pathological drivers of vascular damage in patients with NAFLD. Moreover, the impact of NAFLD on the development, severity and the progression of subclinical and clinical CVD will be discussed. Finally, the review illustrates current and potential future perspectives to screen for CVD in this high-risk population.

Liver function tests and metabolic-associated fatty liver disease: Changes in upper normal limits, does it really matter?

BACKGROUND: Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is the commonest cause of abnormal liver function tests (LFTs). Current upper normal of limit (UNL) of LFTs was derived from a "healthy" population, where undiagnosed MAFLD and viral hepatitis might be suspected. AIM: To evaluated potential implications of changes in UNL of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) in MAFLD. METHODS: We retrospectively assessed consecutive first referrals with a diagnosis of MAFLD from 2010 to 2017. The conventional UNL of ALT was 45 IU/L for men and 34 IU/L for women, while a low UNL of ALT was 30 IU/L for men and 19 IU/L for women. The UNL of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) was 40 IU/L. RESULTS: Total 436 patients were enrolled; of these, 288 underwent liver biopsy. Setting a lower UNL reduced the percentage of those with significant disease despite normal ALT; specifically, patients with advanced fibrosis (F ≥ F3) or definite "metabolic-associated steato-hepatitis (MASH)" (NAS ≥ 5) within normal ALT decreased from 10% to 1% and from 28% to 4% respectively. However, the proportion of those with elevated ALT and no evidence of advanced fibrosis or "definite MASH" increased from 39% to 47% and from 3% to 19%. Overall, LFTs performed poorly in distinguishing "definite MASH" from simple steatosis (receiver operating characteristic areas under the curves 0.59 for ALT and 0.55 for AST). CONCLUSION: Liver function tests might both under- and overestimate MASH-related liver disease. Reducing the UNL might not be beneficial and imply an increase in healthcare burden. Risk stratification in MAFLD should rely on a combination of risk factors, not on LFTs alone.

In-hospital mortality is associated with inflammatory response in NAFLD patients admitted for COVID-19.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Although metabolic risk factors are associated with more severe COVID-19, there is little evidence on outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We here describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of NAFLD patients in a cohort hospitalised for COVID-19. METHODS: This study included all consecutive patients admitted for COVID-19 between February and April 2020 at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, with either imaging of the liver available dated within one year from the admission or a known diagnosis of NAFLD. Clinical data and early weaning score (EWS) were recorded. NAFLD diagnosis was based on imaging or past medical history and patients were stratified for Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index. Clinical endpoints were admission to intensive care unit (ICU)and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: 561 patients were admitted. Overall, 193 patients were included in the study. Fifty nine patients (30%) died, 9 (5%) were still in hospital, and 125 (65%) were discharged. The NAFLD cohort (n = 61) was significantly younger (60 vs 70.5 years, p = 0.046) at presentation compared to the non-NAFLD (n = 132). NAFLD diagnosis was not associated with adverse outcomes. However, the NAFLD group had higher C reactive protein (CRP) (107 vs 91.2 mg/L, p = 0.05) compared to non-NAFLD(n = 132). Among NAFLD patients, male gender (p = 0.01), ferritin (p = 0.003) and EWS (p = 0.047) were associated with in-hospital mortality, while the presence of intermediate/high risk FIB-4 or liver cirrhosis was not. CONCLUSION: The presence of NAFLD per se was not associated with worse outcomes in patients hospitalised for COVID-19. Though NAFLD patients were younger on admission, disease stage was not associated with clinical outcomes. Yet, mortality was associated with gender and a pronounced inflammatory response in the NAFLD group.

Current and future pharmacological therapies for managing cirrhosis and its complications.

Due to the restrictions of liver transplantation, complication-guided pharmacological therapy has become the mainstay of long-term management of cirrhosis. This article aims to provide a complete overview of pharmacotherapy options that may be commenced in the outpatient setting which are available for managing cirrhosis and its complications, together with discussion of current controversies and potential future directions. PubMed/Medline/Cochrane Library were electronically searched up to December 2018 to identify studies evaluating safety, efficacy and therapeutic mechanisms of pharmacological agents in cirrhotic adults and animal models of cirrhosis. Non-selective beta-blockers effectively reduce variceal re-bleeding risk in cirrhotic patients with moderate/large varices, but appear ineffective for primary prevention of variceal development and may compromise renal function and haemodynamic stability in advanced decompensation. Recent observational studies suggest protective, haemodynamically-independent effects of beta-blockers relating to reduced bacterial translocation. The gut-selective antibiotic rifaximin is effective for secondary prophylaxis of hepatic encephalopathy; recent small trials also indicate its potential superiority to norfloxacin for secondary prevention of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. Diuretics remain the mainstay of uncomplicated ascites treatment, and early trials suggest alpha-adrenergic receptor agonists may improve diuretic response in refractory ascites. Vaptans have not demonstrated clinical effectiveness in treating refractory ascites and may cause detrimental complications. Despite initial hepatotoxicity concerns, safety of statin administration has been demonstrated in compensated cirrhosis. Furthermore, statins are suggested to have protective effects upon fibrosis progression, decompensation and mortality. Evidence as to whether proton pump inhibitors cause gut-liver-brain axis dysfunction is conflicting. Emerging evidence indicates that anticoagulation therapy reduces incidence and increases recanalisation rates of non-malignant portal vein thrombosis, and may impede hepatic fibrogenesis and decompensation. Pharmacotherapy for cirrhosis should be implemented in accordance with up-to-date guidelines and in conjunction with aetiology management, nutritional optimisation and patient education.

Derivation and validation of a cardiovascular risk score for prediction of major acute cardiovascular events in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; the importance of an elevated mean platelet volume.

BACKGROUND: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease is a key cause of morbidity in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) but appropriate means to predict major acute cardiovascular events (MACE) are lacking. AIM: To design a bespoke cardiovascular risk score in NAFLD. METHODS: A retrospective derivation (2008-2016, 356 patients) and a prospective validation (2016- 2017, 111 patients) NAFLD cohort study was performed. Clinical and biochemical data were recorded at enrolment and mean platelet volume (MPV), Qrisk2 and Framingham scores were recorded one year prior to MACE (Cardiovascular death, acute coronary syndrome, stroke and transient ischaemic attack). RESULTS: The derivation and validation cohorts were well-matched, with MACE prevalence 12.6% and 12%, respectively. On univariate analysis, age, diabetes, advanced fibrosis, collagen proportionate area >5%, MPV and liver stiffness were associated with MACE. After multivariate analysis, age, diabetes and MPV remained independently predictive of MACE. The "NAFLD CV-risk score" was generated using binary logistic regression: 0.06*(Age) + 0.963*(MPV) + 0.26*(DM1 ) - 16.44; 1 Diabetes mellitus: 1: present; 2: absent. (AUROC 0.84). A cut-off of -3.98 gave a sensitivity 97%, specificity 27%, PPV 16%, and NPV 99%. An MPV alone of >10.05 gave a sensitivity 97%, specificity 59%, PPV 24% and NPV 97% (AUROC 0.83). Validation cohort AUROCs were comparable at 0.77 (NAFLD CV-risk) and 0.72 (MPV). In the full cohort, the NAFLD CV-risk score and MPV outperformed both Qrisk2 and Framingham scores. CONCLUSIONS: The NAFLD CV risk score and MPV accurately predict 1-year risk of MACE, thereby allowing better identification of patients that require optimisation of their cardiovascular risk profile.