The Global and Regional Prevalence of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms: A Systematic Review and Modeling Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the global and regional prevalence and cases of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) in 2019 and to evaluate major associated factors. BACKGROUND: Understanding the global prevalence of AAA is essential for optimizing health services and reducing mortality from reputed AAA. METHODS: PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase were searched for articles published until October 11, 2021. Population-based studies that reported AAA prevalence in the general population, defined AAA as an aortic diameter of 30 mm or greater with ultrasonography or computed tomography. A multilevel mixed-effects meta-regression approach was used to establish the relation between age and AAA prevalence for high-demographic sociodemographic index and low-and middle-sociodemographic index countries. Odds ratios of AAA associated factors were pooled using a random-effects method. RESULTS: We retained 54 articles across 19 countries. The global prevalence of AAA among persons aged 30 to 79 years was 0.92% (95% CI, 0.65-1.30), translating to a total of 35.12 million (95% CI, 24.94-49.80) AAA cases in 2019. Smoking, male sex, family history of AAA, advanced age, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obesity, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, claudication, peripheral artery disease, pulmonary disease, and renal disease were associated with AAA. In 2019, the Western Pacific region had the highest AAA prevalence at 1.31% (95% CI, 0.94-1.85), whereas the African region had the lowest prevalence at 0.33% (95% CI, 0.23-0.48). CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of people are affected by AAA. There is a need to optimize epidemiological studies to promptly respond to at-risk and identified cases to improve outcomes.

COVID-19: vaccines, efficacy and effects on variants.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We reviewed three leading strategies of vaccine development against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID- 19): mRNA vaccines, adenoviral vector vaccines and recombinant nanoparticles. We also considered the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants and their impact on the effectiveness of the most widely implemented vaccines. RECENT FINDINGS: General properties, efficacy, safety and global uptake of Pfizer/BioNTech's Comirnaty (BNT162b2), Moderna's Spikevax (mRNA-1273), Oxford/AstraZeneca's ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, J&J/Janssen's Ad26.COV2.S and Novavax's NVX-CoV2373 vaccines at the end of the year 2021 were presented. We summarized the information on the effectiveness against COVID-19 infection, severe disease and death. We then focused on important missense mutations in the five variants of concern (VoC): Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron. We explored the evidence for the effectiveness of the vaccines against those five VoC. SUMMARY: It is difficult to predict the further development of the COVID-19 pandemic. The development of vaccines of an increasingly broad spectrum against coronaviruses, more easily deliverable and conferring more durable immune protection is likely. However, the very large number of infections may lead to new mutations with unpredictable impacts. Interventions that would control COVID-19 more effectively and enable a safer coexistence with the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its emerging variants are still needed in early 2022.

Associated factors and global adherence of cervical cancer screening in 2019: a systematic analysis and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer screening is vital for its prevention. Adherence is a crucial indicator that implies the individual willingness to take cervical cancer screening. We aimed to estimate the global and regional adherence rates of cervical cancer screening in 2019 and identify its associated factors among general women. METHOD: We searched studies in PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Database, ProQuest theses database and Google Web, without a lower time limit and until 23 June, 2021. Survey studies were considered eligible if they investigated cervical cancer screening adherence among general women, with data on sample size, the number of adherent subjects, and/or adherence rate. Random-effects were used to pool the odds ratios (ORs) of associated factors of adherence. Using modelling analysis, we estimated 2019 overall and age-specific adherence rates at the global and regional levels in women aged 20-69 years. RESULTS: Eight thousand two hundred ninety records were identified, and 153 articles were included. Being married (vs not married: OR, 1.34; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.23-1.46), higher educational attainment (higher than high school vs less than high school: OR, 1.44; 95% CI: 1.35-1.53), having healthcare (OR, 1.64; 95% CI: 1.43-1.88), former smoking (OR, 1.20; 95% CI: 1.07-1.34), physical activity (OR, 1.19; 95% CI: 1.05-1.36), parity (OR, 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01-1.12), and chronic disease (OR, 1.17; 95% CI: 1.04-1.32) were associated with better adherence, whereas obesity (vs normal: OR, 0.85; 95% CI: 0.74-0.97) and current smoking (vs former/never: OR, 0.64; 95% CI: 0.54-0.76) were associated with worse adherence. In 2019, the adherence was at 33.66% (95% CI: 23.34-39.30%) worldwide, and was higher in high-income countries (HICs) (75.66, 95% CI: 66.74-82.81%) than in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) (24.91, 95% CI: 14.30-30.24%). It varied across regions, the highest in the European region (65.36, 95% CI: 55.40-74.19%), but the lowest in the African region (5.28, 95% CI: 3.43-8.03%). CONCLUSIONS: Cervical cancer screening adherence remained low globally, exhibiting geographical discrepancy with HICs higher than LMICs. Further implementations of screening programs should comprehensively consider the local economy, social benefits, and demographic structure to adapt delivery for vulnerable or underserved women to boost screening adherence.

Epidemiology of physical inactivity in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity is crucial to preventing noncommunicable diseases. This study aimed to provide up-to-date evidence on the epidemiology of insufficient physical activity across Nigeria to increase awareness and prompt relevant policy and public health response. METHODS: A systematic literature search of community-based studies on physical inactivity was conducted. We constructed a meta-regression epidemiologic model to determine the age-adjusted prevalence and number of physically inactive persons in Nigeria for 1995 and 2020. RESULTS: Fifteen studies covering a population of 13 814 adults met our selection criteria. The pooled crude prevalence of physically inactive persons in Nigeria was 52.0% (95% CI: 33.7-70.4), with prevalence in women higher at 55.8% (95% CI: 29.4-82.3) compared to men at 49.3% (95% CI: 24.7-73.9). Across settings, prevalence of physically inactive persons was significantly higher among urban dwellers (56.8%, 35.3-78.4) compared to rural dwellers (18.9%, 11.9-49.8). Among persons aged 20-79 years, the total number of physically inactive persons increased from 14.4 million to 48.6 million between 1995 and 2020, equivalent to a 240% increase over the 25-year period. CONCLUSIONS: A comprehensive and robust strategy that addresses occupational policies, town planning, awareness and information, and sociocultural and contextual issues is crucial to improving physical activity levels in Nigeria.

Influence of socio-economic factors on prevalence of teenage pregnancy in Nigeria.

The study utilized the theory of fertility as initiated by Davis and Blakes (1956) and developed by Bongaarts in 1978 to underscore why teenage fertility has remained high in Nigeria. This study investigates women socio-economic factors influencing pregnancy in Nigeria. A total sample of 8448 female teenagers with pregnancy experiences were extracted from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). The study revealed that 19% of young girls with 15-19 years have experienced teenage pregnancy in Nigeria. More importantly, the socio-economic factors with significant influence on teenage pregnancy are: respondents with age 18-19 years (33.2 percent), rural (27.2 percent), Islamic religion (25.2 percent), North-west (28.5 percent), poorest (32 percent), no educational (43.7 percent), married/living with partners (73.9 percent), employed (21.5 percent), visited any health facility in the last 12 months (42 percent) and those who were informed about family planning at a health facility (84.3 per cent) . There is need for sound education for females in Nigeria that will equip girls and women with adequate knowledge needed to make informed decisions on matters relating to sexual and reproductive health, hence resulting in the actualization of the SDG 5.

Diagnostic performance of transrectal ultrasound for prostate volume estimation in men with benign prostate hyperplasia.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Despite transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) being regarded as gold standard for prostate volume estimation, concerns have been raised in the literature concerning its accuracy especially in men with above-average prostate volumes. We aimed to evaluate the performance of TRUS for prostate volume estimation in a cohort of sub-Saharan African men since they are known to have relatively large mean prostate volumes. METHODS: This was a prospective study of 77 sub-Saharan African men who had open simple prostatectomy for benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH). Pre-operative TRUS determined total prostate volume (TPV) and transition zone volume (TZV). Following surgical enucleation, the adenoma was weighed (EPW) and its volume (EPV) also determined by fluid displacement. TRUS was repeated six weeks post-operatively to calculate the TRUS-estimated specimen volume (TESV). RESULTS: The mean EPV, EPW, TRUS-estimated TZV, TRUS-estimated TPV and TESV were 79.1 ± 62.9 ml, 79.1 ± 62.9 g, 53.3 ± 28.5 ml, 93.1 ± 48.9 ml and 69.9 ± 44.6 ml, respectively. Pearson's correlation showed a perfect relationship between EPW and EPV with no difference in their mean values (r = 1.000; P < .001). Pearson's correlation between TRUS-estimated TPV vs EPV, TRUS-estimated TZV vs EPV, and between TESV vs EPV were 0.932, 0.865 and 0.930, respectively (P = .0000). TRUS significantly under-estimated the TZV and TESV by 25.8 ml and 9.2 ml, respectively; unrelated to the severity of prostate enlargement. CONCLUSION: TRUS underestimates prostate volume, independent of prostate size. We propose simple formulae that could be used to improve the prostate volume determination from TRUS, especially if magnetic resonance imaging is not readily available or contraindicated.

Health Communication and Behavioural Practice towards Ending Hepatitis B Virus in Southwest Nigeria.

Responding to the international call for strategic information to understand viral hepatitis, this study investigated the health communication practice on hepatitis B virus in Southwest Nigeria. Existing studies on HBV in Nigeria have primarily concentrated on health practitioners and their patients while neglecting detailed empirical data on semiurban and urban demographic information. This study examines health communication channels as predictors of knowledge, attitude, and behavioural practices with an emphasis on three Southwest states (Lagos, Oyo, and Ogun) in Nigeria that have the highest prevalence rate of HBV. Data were gathered through a survey from a total of 600 respondents of Southwest Nigeria randomly selected through the multistage sampling technique. The hypotheses were tested with the use of multiple regression. The result reveals that health communication channels for hepatitis B virus management had a significant influence on knowledge (F = 12.708, Df = 581, P < 0.05, Sig. at 0.000), attitude (F = 3.430, Df = 581, P < 0.05, Sig. at 0.000), and preventive practices (F = 11.075, Df = 581, P < 0.05, Sig. at 0.000) of residents of Southwest Nigeria, respectively. The study concludes that health communication channels such as the television, Internet, radio, newspaper, and health workers positively influence the behavioural practices of residents of Southwest Nigeria. The study recommends the development of a nationwide communication system on HBV targeted at putting an end to the disease in line with the 2030 global elimination objective of Sustainable Development Goal 3.

Current prevalence pattern of tobacco smoking in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: National smoking cessation strategies in Nigeria are hindered by lack of up-to-date epidemiologic data. We aimed to estimate prevalence of tobacco smoking in Nigeria to guide relevant interventions. METHODS: We conducted systematic search of publicly available evidence from 1990 through 2018. A random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression epidemiologic model were employed to determine prevalence and number of smokers in Nigeria in 1995 and 2015. RESULTS: Across 64 studies (n = 54,755), the pooled crude prevalence of current smokers in Nigeria was 10.4% (9.0-11.7) and 17.7% (15.2-20.2) for ever smokers. This was higher among men compared to women in both groups. There was considerable variation across geopolitical zones, ranging from 5.4% (North-west) to 32.1% (North-east) for current smokers, and 10.5% (South-east) to 43.6% (North-east) for ever smokers. Urban and rural dwellers had relatively similar rates of current smokers (10.7 and 9.1%), and ever smokers (18.1 and 17.0%). Estimated median age at initiation of smoking was 16.8 years (IQR: 13.5-18.0). From 1995 to 2015, we estimated an increase in number of current smokers from 8 to 11 million (or a decline from 13 to 10.6% of the population). The pooled mean cigarettes consumption per person per day was 10.1 (6.1-14.2), accounting for 110 million cigarettes per day and over 40 billion cigarettes consumed in Nigeria in 2015. CONCLUSIONS: While the prevalence of smokers may be declining in Nigeria, one out of ten Nigerians still smokes daily. There is need for comprehensive measures and strict anti-tobacco laws targeting tobacco production and marketing.

Epidemiology of harmful use of alcohol in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, has reported relatively high levels of alcohol misuse, yet limited resources to guide effective population-wide response. There is a need to integrate existing empirical information in order to increase the power and precision of estimating epidemiological evidence necessary for informing policies and developing prevention programs. Objectives: We aimed to estimate nationwide and zonal prevalence of harmful use of alcohol in Nigeria to inform public health policy and planning. Methods: Epidemiologic reports on alcohol use in Nigeria from 1990 through 2018 were systematically searched and abstracted. We employed random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression model to determine the number of harmful alcohol users. Results: 35 studies (n = 37,576 Nigerians) were identified. Pooled crude prevalence of harmful use of alcohol was 34.3% (95% CI: 28.6-40.1); twice as high among men (43.9%, 31.1-56.8) compared to women (23.9%, 16.4-31.4). Harmful alcohol use was higher in rural settings (40.1%, 24.2-56.1) compared to urban settings (31.2%, 22.9-39.6). The number of harmful alcohol users aged ≥15 years increased from 24 to 34 million from 1995 to 2015. However, actual age-adjusted prevalence of harmful use of alcohol in Nigeria decreased from 38.5% to 32.6% over the twenty-year period. Conclusions: While the prevalence of the total population that drinks harmfully appears to be dropping, absolute number of individuals that would be classified as harmful drinkers is increasing. This finding highlights the complexity of identifying and advocating for substance abuse policies in rapidly changing demographic settings common in Africa, Asia, and other developing countries.

Estimate of the incidence of bladder cancer in Africa: A systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the epidemiology of bladder cancer in Africa to guide a targeted public health response and support research initiatives. METHODS: We systematically searched publicly available sources for population-based registry studies reporting the incidence of bladder cancer in Africa between January 1980 and June 2017. Crude incidence rates of bladder cancer were extracted. A Bayesian network meta-analysis model was used to estimate incidence rates. RESULTS: The search returned 1328 studies. A total of 22 studies carried out across 15 African countries met our pre-defined selection criteria. Heterogeneity across studies was high (I2  = 98.9%, P < 0.001). The pooled incidence of bladder cancer in Africa was 7.0 (95% credible interval 5.8-8.3) per 100 000 population in men and 1.8 (95% credible interval 1.2-2.6) per 100 000 in women. The incidence of bladder cancer was consistently higher in North Africa in both sexes. Among men, we estimated a pooled incidence of 10.1 (95% credible interval 7.9-11.9) per 100 000 in North Africa and 5.0 (95% credible interval 3.8-6.6) per 100 000 in sub-Saharan Africa. In women, the pooled incidence was 2.0 (95% credible interval 1.0-3.0) per 100 000 and 1.5 (95% credible interval 0.9-2.0) per 100 000 in North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, respectively. Incidence rates increased significantly among men from 5.6 (95% credible interval 4.2-7.2) in the 1990s to 8.5 (95% credible interval 6.9-10.1) per 100 000 in 2010. CONCLUSIONS: The present study suggests a growing incidence of bladder cancer in Africa in recent years, particularly among men and in North Africa. This study also highlights the lack of quality data sources and collection of essential clinical and epidemiological data in several African countries, and this hinders public health planning.

Health-care workers' occupational exposures to body fluids in 21 countries in Africa: systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the lifetime and 12-month prevalence of occupational exposure to body fluids among health-care workers in Africa. METHODS: Embase®, PubMed® and CINAHL databases were systematically searched for studies published between January 2000 and August 2017 that reported the prevalence of occupational exposure to blood or other body fluids among health-care workers in Africa. The continent-wide prevalence of exposure was estimated using random-effects meta-analysis. FINDINGS: Of the 904 articles identified, 65 studies from 21 African countries were included. The estimated pooled lifetime and 12-month prevalence of occupational exposure to body fluids were 65.7% (95% confidence interval, CI: 59.7-71.6) and 48.0% (95% CI: 40.7-55.3), respectively. Exposure was largely due to percutaneous injury, which had an estimated 12-month prevalence of 36.0% (95% CI: 31.2-40.8). The pooled 12-month prevalence of occupational exposure among medical doctors (excluding surgeons), nurses (including midwives and nursing assistants) and laboratory staff (including laboratory technicians) was 46.6% (95% CI: 33.5-59.7), 44.6% (95% CI: 34.1-55.0) and 34.3% (95% CI: 21.8-46.7), respectively. The risk of exposure was higher among health-care workers with no training on infection prevention and those who worked more than 40 hours per week. CONCLUSION: The evidence available suggests that almost one half of health-care workers in Africa were occupationally exposed to body fluids annually. However, a lack of data from some countries was a major limitation. National governments and health-care institutions across Africa should prioritize efforts to minimize occupational exposure among health-care workers.

Health workforce and governance: the crisis in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: In Nigeria, several challenges have been reported within the health sector, especially in training, funding, employment, and deployment of the health workforce. We aimed to review recent health workforce crises in the Nigerian health sector to identify key underlying causes and provide recommendations toward preventing and/or managing potential future crises in Nigeria. METHODS: We conducted a scoping literature search of PubMed to identify studies on health workforce and health governance in Nigeria. A critical analysis, with extended commentary, on recent health workforce crises (2010-2016) and the health system in Nigeria was conducted. RESULTS: The Nigerian health system is relatively weak, and there is yet a coordinated response across the country. A number of health workforce crises have been reported in recent times due to several months' salaries owed, poor welfare, lack of appropriate health facilities and emerging factions among health workers. Poor administration and response across different levels of government have played contributory roles to further internal crises among health workers, with different factions engaged in protracted supremacy challenge. These crises have consequently prevented optimal healthcare delivery to the Nigerian population. CONCLUSIONS: An encompassing stakeholders' forum in the Nigerian health sector remain essential. The national health system needs a solid administrative policy foundation that allows coordination of priorities and partnerships in the health workforce and among various stakeholders. It is hoped that this paper may prompt relevant reforms in health workforce and governance in Nigeria toward better health service delivery in the country.

The burden of road traffic crashes, injuries and deaths in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the burden of road traffic injuries and deaths for all road users and among different road user groups in Africa. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, Google Scholar, websites of African road safety agencies and organizations for registry- and population-based studies and reports on road traffic injury and death estimates in Africa, published between 1980 and 2015. Available data for all road users and by road user group were extracted and analysed. We conducted a random-effects meta-analysis and estimated pooled rates of road traffic injuries and deaths. FINDINGS: We identified 39 studies from 15 African countries. The estimated pooled rate for road traffic injury was 65.2 per 100 000 population (95% confidence interval, CI: 60.8-69.5) and the death rate was 16.6 per 100 000 population (95% CI: 15.2-18.0). Road traffic injury rates increased from 40.7 per 100 000 population in the 1990s to 92.9 per 100 000 population between 2010 and 2015, while death rates decreased from 19.9 per 100 000 population in the 1990s to 9.3 per 100 000 population between 2010 and 2015. The highest road traffic death rate was among motorized four-wheeler occupants at 5.9 per 100 000 population (95% CI: 4.4-7.4), closely followed by pedestrians at 3.4 per 100 000 population (95% CI: 2.5-4.2). CONCLUSION: The burden of road traffic injury and death is high in Africa. Since registry-based reports underestimate the burden, a systematic collation of road traffic injury and death data is needed to determine the true burden.

An estimate of the prevalence of COPD in Africa: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is among the leading causes of death globally, accounting for about 3 million deaths worldwide in 2011. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of COPD in Africa in the year 2010 to provide the information that could assist health policy in the region. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health for studies on COPD published between 1990 and 2012. We included original population based studies providing estimates of the prevalence of COPD. We considered the reported estimates in terms of the mean age of the sample, sex ratio, the year of study and the country of the study as possible covariates. RESULTS from two different types of studies, i.e., based on spirometric and non-spirometric diagnosis of COPD, were further compared. The United Nation Population Division's population figures were used to estimate the number of COPD cases in the year 2010. RESULTS: Our search returned 243 studies, from which only 13 met our selection criteria and only five were based on spirometry. The difference in the median prevalence of COPD in persons aged 40 years or older based on spirometry data (13.4%; IQR: 9.4%-22.1%) and non-spirometry data (4.0%; IQR: 2.1%-8.9%) was statistically significant (p = 0.001). There was no significant effect of the gender or the year of the study on the reported prevalence of COPD in either set of studies. The prevalence of COPD increased with age in spirometry-based studies (p = 0.017), which is a plausible finding suggesting internal consistency of spirometry-based estimates, while this trend was not observed in studies using other case definitions. When applied to the appropriate age group (40 years or more), which accounted for 196.4 million people in Africa in 2010, the estimated prevalence translates into 26.3 million (18.5-43.4 million) cases of COPD. Comparable figures for the year 2000 based on the same prevalence rates would amount to 20.0 million (14.1-33.1), suggesting an increase of 31.5% over a decade that is attributable to ageing of the African population alone. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that COPD is likely to already represent a very large public health problem in Africa. Moreover, rapidly ageing African population should expect a steady increase in the number of COPD cases in the next decade and beyond. The quantity and quality of available evidence does not match the size of the problem. There is a need for more research on COPD prevalence, but also incidence, mortality and risk factors in Africa. We hope this study will raise awareness of COPD in Africa and encourage further research.

Estimating the Global and Regional Burden of Streptococcus pneumoniae Meningitis in Children: Protocol for a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae (Spn) has been a leading cause of bacterial meningitis in children. The most recent estimation of the global burden of Spn meningitis indicates a positive trajectory in eliminating Spn through the implementation of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. However, continuous monitoring and assessment of the disease burden are necessary due to the evidence of serotype replacement, antibiotic resistance, and the impact of the recent COVID-19 pandemic. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this systematic review is to provide an updated and focused assessment of the global and regional burden of Spn meningitis in children, which can guide policies and strategies to reduce the disease burden. METHODS: Population-based studies published from January 1, 2000, to January 1, 2022, were preliminarily searched from the electronic databases PubMed, Embase, Global Health (CABI), and CINAHL Plus without any language restrictions. Studies were included if they reported the incidence, prevalence, mortality, or case-fatality ratio (CFR) for Spn meningitis in children aged 0-4 years; meningitis was confirmed by cerebrospinal fluid culture; the study period was a minimum of 1 year; the number of reported cases was at least 10; and the study had no methodological ambiguities. The article screening process follows the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. Characteristics including study period, setting, World Health Organization region, income level, vaccination information, and participant data (age, number of cases, deaths, sequelae, and risk factors) will be extracted from the included studies. Search results will be updated and incorporated into our review prior to finalizing the extraction of data. Generalized linear mixed models meta-analysis will be performed to estimate the pooled incidence and CFR. We will further assess the risk of bias and heterogeneity, and will perform subgroup and sensitivity analyses to provide a meaningful interpretation of the current burden and literature for pneumococcal meningitis. RESULTS: Our preliminary search in December 2021 yielded 9295 articles. Out of 275 studies that were assessed with our eligibility criteria, 117 articles were included. Data extraction and analysis are expected to be complete by January 2025. We plan to publish the results from the full study, including an updated search in 2024, by March 2025. CONCLUSIONS: Given that the major burden of Spn meningitis affects children under the age of 5 years, this systematic review will provide a thorough understanding of the global burden of Spn meningitis in this vulnerable population over a span of 2 decades. Insights into incidence trends, geospatial distribution, risk factors, and sequelae will be valuable for stakeholders, policy makers, and the academic community. This information will aid in the ongoing monitoring of the disease and in enhancing targeted vaccine programs to further mitigate the impact of the disease on children worldwide. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42021293110; https://tinyurl.com/kc3j5k4m. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/50678.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Influenza Hospital Admissions and Deaths in Wales: Descriptive National Time Series Analysis.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing implementation of control measures caused widespread societal disruption. These disruptions may also have affected community transmission and seasonal circulation patterns of endemic respiratory viruses. Objective: We aimed to investigate the impact of COVID-19-related disruption on influenza-related emergency hospital admissions and deaths in Wales in the first 2 years of the pandemic. Methods: A descriptive analysis of influenza activity was conducted using anonymized pathology, hospitalization, and mortality data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in Wales. The annual incidence of emergency hospitalizations and deaths with influenza-specific diagnosis codes between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2021, was estimated. Case definitions of emergency hospitalization and death required laboratory confirmation with a polymerase chain reaction test. Trends of admissions and deaths were analyzed monthly and yearly. We conducted 2 sensitivity analyses by extending case definitions to include acute respiratory illnesses with a positive influenza test and by limiting admissions to those with influenza as the primary diagnosis. We also examined yearly influenza testing trends to understand changes in testing behavior during the pandemic. Results: We studied a population of 3,235,883 Welsh residents in 2020 with a median age of 42.5 (IQR 22.9-61.0) years. Influenza testing in Wales increased notably in the last 2 months of 2020, and particularly in 2021 to 39,720 per 100,000 people, compared to the prepandemic levels (1343 in 2019). The percentage of influenza admissions matched to an influenza polymerase chain reaction test increased from 74.8% (1890/2526) in 2019 to 85.2% (98/115) in 2021. However, admissions with a positive test per 100,000 population decreased from 17.0 in 2019 to 2.7 and 0.6 in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Similarly, deaths due to influenza with a positive influenza test per 100,000 population decreased from 0.4 in 2019 to 0.0 in 2020 and 2021. Sensitivity analyses showed similar patterns of decreasing influenza admissions and deaths in the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions: Nonpharmaceutical interventions to control COVID-19 were associated with a substantial reduction in the transmission of the influenza virus, with associated substantial reductions in hospital cases and deaths observed. Beyond the pandemic context, consideration should be given to the role of nonpharmaceutical community-driven interventions to reduce the burden of influenza.

Setting research priorities for global pandemic preparedness: An international consensus and comparison with ChatGPT's output.

Background: In this priority-setting exercise, we sought to identify leading research priorities needed for strengthening future pandemic preparedness and response across countries. Methods: The International Society of Global Health (ISoGH) used the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method to identify research priorities for future pandemic preparedness. Eighty experts in global health, translational and clinical research identified 163 research ideas, of which 42 experts then scored based on five pre-defined criteria. We calculated intermediate criterion-specific scores and overall research priority scores from the mean of individual scores for each research idea. We used a bootstrap (n = 1000) to compute the 95% confidence intervals. Results: Key priorities included strengthening health systems, rapid vaccine and treatment production, improving international cooperation, and enhancing surveillance efficiency. Other priorities included learning from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, managing supply chains, identifying planning gaps, and promoting equitable interventions. We compared this CHNRI-based outcome with the 14 research priorities generated and ranked by ChatGPT, encountering both striking similarities and clear differences. Conclusions: Priority setting processes based on human crowdsourcing - such as the CHNRI method - and the output provided by ChatGPT are both valuable, as they complement and strengthen each other. The priorities identified by ChatGPT were more grounded in theory, while those identified by CHNRI were guided by recent practical experiences. Addressing these priorities, along with improvements in health planning, equitable community-based interventions, and the capacity of primary health care, is vital for better pandemic preparedness and response in many settings.

An estimate of asthma prevalence in Africa: a systematic analysis.

AIM: To estimate and compare asthma prevalence in Africa in 1990, 2000, and 2010 in order to provide information that will help inform the planning of the public health response to the disease. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE, and Global Health for studies on asthma published between 1990 and 2012. We included cross-sectional population based studies providing numerical estimates on the prevalence of asthma. We calculated weighted mean prevalence and applied an epidemiological model linking age with the prevalence of asthma. The UN population figures for Africa for 1990, 2000, and 2010 were used to estimate the cases of asthma, each for the respective year. RESULTS: Our search returned 790 studies. We retained 45 studies that met our selection criteria. In Africa in 1990, we estimated 34.1 million asthma cases (12.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 7.2-16.9) among children <15 years, 64.9 million (11.8%; 95% CI 7.9-15.8) among people aged <45 years, and 74.4 million (11.7%; 95% CI 8.2-15.3) in the total population. In 2000, we estimated 41.3 million cases (12.9%; 95% CI 8.7-17.0) among children <15 years, 82.4 million (12.5%; 95% CI 5.9-19.1) among people aged <45 years, and 94.8 million (12.0%; 95% CI 5.0-18.8) in the total population. This increased to 49.7 million (13.9%; 95% CI 9.6-18.3) among children <15 years, 102.9 million (13.8%; 95% CI 6.2-21.4) among people aged <45 years, and 119.3 million (12.8%; 95% CI 8.2-17.1) in the total population in 2010. There were no significant differences between asthma prevalence in studies which ascertained cases by written and video questionnaires. Crude prevalences of asthma were, however, consistently higher among urban than rural dwellers. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest an increasing prevalence of asthma in Africa over the past two decades. Due to the paucity of data, we believe that the true prevalence of asthma may still be under-estimated. There is a need for national governments in Africa to consider the implications of this increasing disease burden and to investigate the relative importance of underlying risk factors such as rising urbanization and population aging in their policy and health planning responses to this challenge.

Can ChatGPT draft a research article? An example of population-level vaccine effectiveness analysis.

We reflect on our experiences of using Generative Pre-trained Transformer ChatGPT, a chatbot launched by OpenAI in November 2022, to draft a research article. We aim to demonstrate how ChatGPT could help researchers to accelerate drafting their papers. We created a simulated data set of 100 000 health care workers with varying ages, Body Mass Index (BMI), and risk profiles. Simulation data allow analysts to test statistical analysis techniques, such as machine-learning based approaches, without compromising patient privacy. Infections were simulated with a randomized probability of hospitalisation. A subset of these fictitious people was vaccinated with a fictional vaccine that reduced this probability of hospitalisation after infection. We then used ChatGPT to help us decide how to handle the simulated data in order to determine vaccine effectiveness and draft a related research paper. AI-based language models in data analysis and scientific writing are an area of growing interest, and this exemplar analysis aims to contribute to the understanding of how ChatGPT can be used to facilitate these tasks.

Lifetime prevalence and adherence rate of cervical cancer screening among women living with HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Women living with HIV (WLWH) are more likely to develop cervical cancer. Screening and available healthcare can effectively reduce its incidence and mortality rates. We aimed to summarize the lifetime prevalence and adherence rate of cervical cancer screening among WLWH across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and high-income countries (HICs). METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, Web of Science and Embase for studies published between database inception and 2 September 2022, without language or geographical restrictions. Those reporting the lifetime prevalence and/or adherence rate of cervical cancer screening among WLWH were included. Pooled estimates across LMICs and HICs were obtained using DerSimonian-Laird random-effects models. When the number of eligible studies was greater than 10, we further conducted stratified analyses by the World Health Organization (WHO) region, setting (rural vs. urban), investigation year, screening method, type of cervical cancer screening programme, age and education level. RESULTS: Among the 63 included articles, 26 provided data on lifetime prevalence, 24 on adherence rate and 13 on both. The pooled lifetime prevalence in LMICs was 30.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 21.0-41.3), compared to 92.4% in HICs (95% CI: 89.6-94.6). The pooled adherence rate was 20.1% in LMICs (95% CI: 16.4-24.3) and 59.5% in HICs (95% CI: 51.2-67.2). DISCUSSION: There was a large gap in cervical cancer screening among WLWH between LMICs and HICs. Further analysis found that those in LMICs had higher lifetime prevalence in subgroups with urban settings, with older age and with higher education levels; and those in HICs had higher adherence in subgroups with younger age and with higher education levels. CONCLUSIONS: Cervical cancer screening among WLWH falls considerably short of the WHO's goal. There should be continuous efforts to further increase screening among these women, especially those residing in the rural areas of LMICs and with lower education levels.