Derivation and validation of a set of 10-year cardiovascular risk predictive functions in Spain: the FRESCO Study.

OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate a set of functions to predict coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, and validate the Framingham-REGICOR function. METHOD: Pooled analysis of 11 population-based Spanish cohorts (1992-2005) with 50,408 eligible participants. Baseline smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure (SBP), lipid profile, and body mass index were recorded. A ten-year follow-up included re-examinations/telephone contact and cross-linkage with mortality registries. For each sex, two models were fitted for CHD, stroke, and both end-points combined: model A was adjusted for age, smoking, and body mass index and model B for age, smoking, diabetes, SBP, total and HDL cholesterol, and for hypertension treatment by SBP, and age by smoking and by SBP interactions. RESULTS: The 9.3-year median follow-up accumulated 2973 cardiovascular events. The C-statistic improved from model A to model B for CHD (0.66 to 0.71 for men; 0.70 to 0.74 for women) and the combined CHD-stroke end-points (0.68 to 0.71; 0.72 to 0.75, respectively), but not for stroke alone. Framingham-REGICOR had similar C-statistics but overestimated CHD risk. CONCLUSIONS: The new functions accurately estimate 10-year stroke and CHD risk in the adult population of a typical southern European country. The Framingham-REGICOR function provided similar CHD prediction but overestimated risk.

[Excess of mortality and mortality from COVID-19 and other causes of death in 2020 in Navarra, Spain].

BACKGROUND: In this study, we aimed to present mortality indicators from a database of death causes by age and sex in Navarre (Spain) for 2020: life expectancy at birth, excess mortality, and mortality from COVID-19 and other causes. METHODS: A Poisson regression model, which accounts for temporal trends in the previous years, was used to estimate the expected deaths by sex and age for 2020. RESULTS: Life expectancy at birth in Navarre for 2020 was 80.6 and 85.9 years for men and women, respectively, 1.4 and 1.0 years lower than in 2019. Deaths in people aged <55 years were similar to those expected. The highest adjusted excess mortality rate occurred among men and women aged >85 years, were 61% of excess deaths was concentrated. The estimated number of excess deaths did not exceed the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. In individuals aged >75 years, around 9 out of 10 people died from COVID-19. Coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a remarkable decrease in mortality in people affected by diseases where dementia is included. CONCLUSIONS: The first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic reduced life expectancy at birth to figures observed ten years ago. The increase in deaths in Navarre for 2020 is largely attributable to COVID-19.

Circulating biomarkers of tryptophan and the kynurenine pathway and lung cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Imbalances in tryptophan metabolism have been linked to cancer-related immune escape and implicated in several cancers, including lung cancer. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) that included 893 incident lung cancer cases and 1,748 matched controls. Circulating levels of tryptophan and six of its metabolites were measured and evaluated in relation to lung cancer risk. RESULTS: Tryptophan (Ptrend = 2 × 10(-5)) and the kynurenine/tryptophan ratio (KTR; Ptrend = 4 × 10(-5)) were associated with lung cancer risk overall after adjusting for established risk factors. The ORs comparing the fifth and first quintiles (OR5th vs. 1st) were 0.52 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.37-0.74] for tryptophan and 1.74 (95% CI, 1.24-2.45) for KTR. After adjusting for plasma methionine (available from previous work, which was strongly correlated with tryptophan), the associations of tryptophan (adjusted Ptrend = 0.13) and KTR (Ptrend = 0.009) were substantially attenuated. KTR was positively associated with squamous cell carcinoma, the OR5th vs. 1st being 2.83 (95% CI, 1.62-4.94, Ptrend = 3 × 10(-5)) that was only marginally affected by adjusting for methionine. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that biomarkers of tryptophan metabolism are associated with subsequent lung cancer risk. Although this result would seem consistent with the immune system having a role in lung cancer development, the overall associations were dependent on methionine, and further studies are warranted to further elucidate the importance of these metabolites in lung cancer etiology. IMPACT: This is the first prospective study investigating the tryptophan pathway in relation to lung cancer risk.