Economic effects for citizens and the government of a country-level tobacco endgame strategy: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Aotearoa-New Zealand (A/NZ) was the first country to pass a comprehensive commercial tobacco endgame strategy into law. Key components include the denicotinisation of smoked tobacco products and a major reduction in tobacco retail outlets. Understanding the potential long-term economic impacts of such measures is important for government planning. DESIGN: A tobacco policy simulation model that evaluated the health impacts of the A/NZ Smokefree Action Plan was extended to evaluate the economic effects from both government and citizen perspectives. Estimates were presented in 2021 US$, discounted at 3% per annum. RESULTS: The modelled endgame policy package generates considerable growth in income for the A/NZ population with a total cumulative gain of US$31 billion by 2050. From a government perspective, increased superannuation payments and reduced tobacco excise tax revenue result in a negative net financial position and a cumulative shortfall of US$11.5 billion by 2050. In a sensitivity analysis considering future labour force changes, the government's cumulative net position remained negative by 2050, but only by US$1.9 billion. CONCLUSIONS: A policy such as the A/NZ Smokefree Action Plan is likely to produce substantial economic benefits for citizens, and modest impacts on government finances related to reduced tobacco tax and increases in aged pensions due to increased life expectancy. Such costs can be anticipated and planned for and might be largely offset by future increases in the size of the labour force and the proportion of people 65+ years old working in the formal economy.

Tobacco endgame intervention impacts on health gains and Maori:non-Maori health inequity: a simulation study of the Aotearoa/New Zealand Tobacco Action Plan.

BACKGROUND: The Aotearoa/New Zealand Government is aiming to end the tobacco epidemic and markedly reduce Maori:non-Maori health inequalities by legislating: (1) denicotinisation of retail tobacco, (2) 95% reduction in retail outlets and (c) a tobacco free-generation whereby people born after 2005 are unable to legally purchase tobacco. This paper estimates future smoking prevalence, mortality inequality and health-adjusted life year (HALY) impacts of these strategies. METHODS: We used a Markov model to estimate future yearly smoking and vaping prevalence, linked to a proportional multistate life table model to estimate future mortality and HALYs. RESULTS: The combined package of strategies (plus media promotion) reduced adult smoking prevalence from 31.8% in 2022 to 7.3% in 2025 for Maori, and 11.8% to 2.7% for non-Maori. The 5% smoking prevalence target was forecast to be achieved in 2026 and 2027 for Maori males and females, respectively.The HALY gains for the combined package over the population's remaining lifespan were estimated to be 594 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 443 000 to 738 000; 3% discount rate). Denicotinisation alone achieved 97% of these HALYs, the retail strategy 19% and tobacco-free generation 12%.By 2040, the combined package was forcat to reduce the gap in Maori:non-Maori all-cause mortality rates for people 45+ years old by 22.9% (95% UI: 19.9% to 26.2%) for females and 9.6% (8.4% to 11.0%) for males. CONCLUSION: A tobacco endgame strategy, especially denicotinisation, could deliver large health benefits and dramatically reduce health inequities between Maori and non-Maori in Aotearoa/New Zealand.

What can We Learn From High-Performing Screening Programs to Increase Bowel Cancer Screening Participation in Australia?

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most diagnosed cancer in men and women and second most common cause of cancer death in Australia; Australia's CRC incidence and mortality are among the world's highest. The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program began in 2006; however, only 33% of those approached for the first time by the Program between 2018 and 2019 returned the kit. Of the 5.7 million kits sent during this period, only 44% were returned. Our aim was to identify practices and features of national bowel cancer screening programs in countries with similar programs but higher screening participation, to identify potential interventions for optimising Australian CRC screening participation. METHODS: We searched published and grey literature for CRC screening programs reporting at least 50% screening participation using postal invitation and free return of iFOBT home kits. Interviews were conducted with cancer registry staff and academic researchers, focused on participant and practitioner engagement in screening. RESULTS: National programs in Netherlands, Scotland, Denmark, and Finland reported over 50% screening participation rates for all invitation rounds. Shared characteristics include small populations within small geographic areas relative to Australia; relatively high literacy; a one-sample iFOBT kit; national registration systems for population cancer screening research; and screening program research including randomised trials of program features. CONCLUSIONS: Apart from the one-sample kit, we identified no single solution to persistent Australian low uptake of screening. Research including randomised trials within the program promises to increase participation. IMPACT: This screening program comparison suggests that within-program intervention trials will lead to increased Australian screening participation.

Updated Health and Cost Impacts of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems, Using Recent Estimates of Relative Harm for Vaping Compared to Smoking.

BACKGROUND: Measuring population health and costs effects of liberalizing access to electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) is an evolving field with high persisting uncertainty. A critical area of uncertainty for policy-makers are estimates of net harms from ENDS relative to cigarettes, therefore, we model these harms using updated estimates incorporating disease specificity. METHODS: We use updated estimates of relative harm of vaping vs smoking, based upon relevant biomarker studies to model the impact of liberalizing access to ENDS in New Zealand (NZ), relative to a ban (where ENDS are not legally available), in an existing proportional multi-state life-table model of 16 tobacco-related diseases. RESULTS: This modeling suggests that ENDS liberalization results in an expected gain of 195 000 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over the remainder of the NZ population's lifespan. There was wide uncertainty in QALYs gained (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = -8000 to 406 000) with a 3.2% probability of net health loss (based upon the number of simulation runs returning positive QALY gains). The average per capita health gain was 0.044 QALYs (equivalent to an extra 16 days of healthy life). Health system cost-savings were expected to be NZ$2.8 billion (US$2.1 billion in 2020 US$; 95%UI: -0.3 to 6.2 billion [2011 NZ$]), with an estimated 3% chance of a net increase in per capita cost. CONCLUSIONS: This updated modeling around liberalizing ENDs in NZ, still suggests likely net health and cost-saving benefits-but of lesser magnitude than previous work and with a small possibility of net harm to population health. IMPLICATIONS: This study found evidence using updated biomarker studies that ENDS liberalization could result in QALY gains across the New Zealand population lifespan that are also cost-saving to the health system. Governments should include the information from these types of modeling studies in their decision-making around potentially improving access to ENDS for existing smokers, while at the same further reducing access to tobacco.

Closing the gaps in tobacco endgame evidence: a scoping review.

OBJECTIVE: Tobacco endgame policies aim to rapidly and permanently reduce smoking to minimal levels. We reviewed evidence syntheses for: (1) endgame policies, (2) evidence gaps, and (3) future research priorities. DATA SOURCES: Guided by JBI scoping review methodology, we searched five databases (PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, Embase and Web of Science) for evidence syntheses published in English since 1990 on 12 policies, and Google for publications from key national and international organisations. Reference lists of included publications were hand searched. STUDY SELECTION: Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts. Inclusion criteria were broad to capture policy impacts (including unintended), feasibility, public and stakeholder acceptability and other aspects of policy implementation. DATA EXTRACTION: We report the results according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews checklist. DATA SYNTHESIS: Eight policies have progressed to evidence synthesis stage (49 publications): mandatory very low nicotine content (VLNC) standard (n=26); product standards to substantially reduce consumer appeal or remove the most toxic products from the market (n=1); moving consumers to reduced risk products (n=8); tobacco-free generation (n=4); ending sales (n=2); sinking lid (n=2); tax increases (n=7); and restrictions on tobacco retailers (n=10). Based on published evidence syntheses, the evidence base was most developed for a VLNC standard, with a wide range of evidence synthesised. CONCLUSIONS: VLNC cigarettes have attracted the most attention, in terms of synthesised evidence. Additional focus on policies that reduce the availability of tobacco is warranted given these measures are being implemented in some jurisdictions.

Failures of quarantine systems for preventing COVID-19 outbreaks in Australia and New Zealand.

OBJECTIVES: To identify COVID-19 quarantine system failures in Australia and New Zealand. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Observational epidemiological study of travellers in managed quarantine in Australia and New Zealand, to 15 June 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of quarantine system failures, and failure with respect to numbers of travellers and SARS-CoV-2-positive travellers. RESULTS: We identified 22 quarantine system failures in Australia and ten in New Zealand to 15 June 2021. One failure initiated a COVID-19 outbreak that caused more than 800 deaths (the Victorian "second wave"); nine lockdowns were linked with quarantine system failures. The failure risk was estimated to be 5.0 failures per 100 000 travellers passing through quarantine and 6.1 (95% CI, 4.0-8.3) failures per 1000 SARS-CoV-2-positive travellers. The risk per 1000 SARS-CoV-2-positive travellers was higher in New Zealand than Australia (relative risk, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.0-4.2). CONCLUSIONS: Quarantine system failures can be costly in terms of lives and economic impact, including lockdowns. Our findings indicate that infection control in quarantine systems in Australia and New Zealand should be improved, including vaccination of quarantine workers and incoming travellers, or that alternatives to hotel-based quarantine should be developed.

Improving on estimates of the potential relative harm to health from using modern ENDS (vaping) compared to tobacco smoking.

BACKGROUND: Although the harm to health from electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) compared to smoked tobacco remains highly uncertain, society and governments still need to know the likely range of the relative harm to inform regulatory policies for ENDS and smoking. METHODS: We identified biomarkers with specificity of association with different disease groupings e.g., volatile organic compound (VOCs) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and tobacco-specific N´-nitrosamines (TSNAs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) for all cancers. We conducted a review of recent studies (post January 2017) that compared these biomarkers between people exclusively using ENDS and those exclusively smoking tobacco. The percentage differences in these biomarkers, weighted by study size and adjusted for acrolein from other sources, were used as a proxy for the assumed percentage difference in disease harm between ENDS and smoking. These relative differences were applied to previously modelled estimates of smoking-related health loss (in health-adjusted life-years; HALYs). RESULTS: The respective relative biomarker levels (ENDS vs smoking) were: 28% for respiratory diseases (five results, three studies); 42% for cancers (five results, four studies); and 35% for cardiovascular (seven results, four studies). When integrated with the HALY impacts by disease, the overall harm to health from ENDS was estimated to be 33% that of smoking. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis, suggests that the use of modern ENDS devices (vaping) could be a third as harmful to health as smoking in a high-income country setting. But this estimate is based on a limited number of biomarker studies and is best be considered a likely upper level of ENDS risk given potential biases in our method (i.e., the biomarkers used being correlated with more unaccounted for toxicants in smoking compared to with using ENDS).

Resistance proportions for eight priority antibiotic-bacterium combinations in OECD, EU/EEA and G20 countries 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.

BackgroundAntimicrobial resistance is widely considered an urgent global health issue due to associated mortality and disability, societal and healthcare costs.AimTo estimate the past, current and projected future proportion of infections resistant to treatment for eight priority antibiotic-bacterium combinations from 2000 to 2030 for 52 countries.MethodsWe collated data from a variety of sources including ResistanceMap and World Bank. Feature selection algorithms and multiple imputation were used to produce a complete historical dataset. Forecasts were derived from an ensemble of three models: exponential smoothing, linear regression and random forest. The latter two were informed by projections of antibiotic consumption, out-of-pocket medical spending, populations aged 64 years and older and under 15 years and real gross domestic product. We incorporated three types of uncertainty, producing 150 estimates for each country-antibiotic-bacterium-year.ResultsAverage resistance proportions across antibiotic-bacterium combinations could grow moderately from 17% to 18% within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD; growth in 64% of uncertainty sets), from 18% to 19% in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA; growth in 87% of uncertainty sets) and from 29% to 31% in Group of Twenty (G20) countries (growth in 62% of uncertainty sets) between 2015 and 2030. There is broad heterogeneity in levels and rates of change across countries and antibiotic-bacterium combinations from 2000 to 2030.ConclusionIf current trends continue, resistance proportions are projected to marginally increase in the coming years. The estimates indicate there is significant heterogeneity in resistance proportions across countries and antibiotic-bacterium combinations.

Family history-based colorectal cancer screening in Australia: A modelling study of the costs, benefits, and harms of different participation scenarios.

BACKGROUND: The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (NBCSP) was introduced in 2006. When fully implemented, the programme will invite people aged 50 to 74 to complete an immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT) every 2 years. METHODS AND FINDINGS: To investigate colorectal cancer (CRC) screening occurring outside of the NBCSP, we classified participants (n = 2,480) in the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (ACCFR) into 3 risk categories (average, moderately increased, and potentially high) based on CRC family history and assessed their screening practices according to national guidelines. We developed a microsimulation to compare hypothetical screening scenarios (70% and 100% uptake) to current participation levels (baseline) and evaluated clinical outcomes and cost for each risk category. The 2 main limitations of this study are as follows: first, the fact that our cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a third-party payer perspective, which does not include indirect costs and results in overestimated cost-effectiveness ratios, and second, that our natural history model of CRC does not include polyp sojourn time, which determines the rate of cancerous transformation. Screening uptake was low across all family history risk categories (64%-56% reported no screening). For participants at average risk, 18% reported overscreening, while 37% of those in the highest risk categories screened according to guidelines. Higher screening levels would substantially reduce CRC mortality across all risk categories (95 to 305 fewer deaths per 100,000 persons in the 70% scenario versus baseline). For those at average risk, a fully implemented NBCSP represented the most cost-effective approach to prevent CRC deaths (AUS$13,000-16,000 per quality-adjusted life year [QALY]). For those at moderately increased risk, higher adherence to recommended screening was also highly cost-effective (AUS$19,000-24,000 per QALY). CONCLUSION: Investing in public health strategies to increase adherence to appropriate CRC screening will save lives and deliver high value for money.

Revised Australian national guidelines for colorectal cancer screening: family history.

INTRODUCTION: Screening is an effective means for colorectal cancer prevention and early detection. Family history is strongly associated with colorectal cancer risk. We describe the rationale, evidence and recommendations for colorectal cancer screening by family history for people without a genetic syndrome, as reported in the 2017 revised Australian guidelines. Main recommendations: Based on 10-year risks of colorectal cancer, people at near average risk due to no or weak family history (category 1) are recommended screening by immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT) every 2 years from age 50 to 74 years. Individuals with moderate risk due to their family history (category 2) are recommended biennial iFOBT from age 40 to 49 years, then colonoscopy every 5 years from age 50 to 74 years. People with a high risk due to their family history (category 3) are recommended biennial iFOBT from age 35 to 44 years, then colonoscopy every 5 years from age 45 to 74 years. Changes in management as a result of the guidelines: By 2019, the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program will offer all Australians free biennial iFOBT screening from age 50 to 74 years, consistent with the recommendations in these guidelines for category 1. Compared with the 2005 guidelines, there are some minor changes in the family history inclusion criteria for categories 1 and 2; the genetic syndromes have been removed from category 3 and, as a consequence, colonoscopy screening is now every 5 years; and for categories 2 and 3, screening begins with iFOBT for people aged 40 and 35 years, respectively, before transitioning to colonoscopy after 10 years.

Risk factors for metachronous colorectal cancer following a primary colorectal cancer: A prospective cohort study.

Individuals diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC) are at risk of developing a metachronous CRC. We examined the associations between personal, tumour-related and lifestyle risk factors, and risk of metachronous CRC. A total of 7,863 participants with incident colon or rectal cancer who were recruited in the USA, Canada and Australia to the Colon Cancer Family Registry during 1997-2012, except those identified as high-risk, for example, Lynch syndrome, were followed up approximately every 5 years. We estimated the risk of metachronous CRC, defined as the first new primary CRC following an interval of at least one year after the initial CRC diagnosis. Observation time started at the age at diagnosis of the initial CRC and ended at the age at diagnosis of the metachronous CRC, last contact or death whichever occurred earliest, or were censored at the age at diagnosis of any metachronous colorectal adenoma. Cox regression was used to derive hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). During a mean follow-up of 6.6 years, 142 (1.81%) metachronous CRCs were diagnosed (mean age at diagnosis 59.8; incidence 2.7/1,000 person-years). An increased risk of metachronous CRC was associated with the presence of a synchronous CRC (HR = 2.73; 95% CI: 1.30-5.72) and the location of cancer in the proximal colon at initial diagnosis (compared with distal colon or rectum, HR = 4.16; 95% CI: 2.80-6.18). The presence of a synchronous CRC and the location of the initial CRC might be useful for deciding the intensity of surveillance colonoscopy for individuals diagnosed with CRC.

Quantifying the utility of single nucleotide polymorphisms to guide colorectal cancer screening.

AIM: To determine whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) can be used to identify people who should be screened for colorectal cancer. METHODS: We simulated one million people with and without colorectal cancer based on published SNP allele frequencies and strengths of colorectal cancer association. We estimated 5-year risks of colorectal cancer by number of risk alleles. RESULTS: We identified 45 SNPs with an average 1.14-fold increase colorectal cancer risk per allele (range: 1.05-1.53). The colorectal cancer risk for people in the highest quintile of risk alleles was 1.81-times that for the average person. CONCLUSION: We have quantified the extent to which known susceptibility SNPs can stratify the population into clinically useful colorectal cancer risk categories.

Perceived versus predicted risks of colorectal cancer and self-reported colonoscopies by members of mismatch repair gene mutation-carrying families who have declined genetic testing.

People carrying germline mutations in mismatch repair genes are at high risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), yet about half of people from mutation-carrying families decline genetic counselling and/or testing to identify mutation status. We studied the association of quantitative measures of risk perception, risk prediction and self-reported screening colonoscopy in this elusive yet high-risk group. The sample of 26 participants (mean age 43.1 years, 14 women) in the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry were relatives of mutation carriers; had not been diagnosed with any cancer at the time of recruitment and had declined an invitation to attend genetic counselling and/or testing. A structured elicitation protocol captured perceived CRC risk over the next 10 years. Self-reported colonoscopy screening was elicited during a 45-minute semi-structured interview. Predicted 10-year CRC risk based on age, gender, known mutation status and family history was calculated using "MMRpro." Mean perceived 10-year risk of CRC was 31 % [95 % CI 21, 40], compared with mean predicted risk of 4 % [2, 7] (p < 0.001); this was independent of age and sex (p = 0.9). Among those reporting any medical advice and any screening colonoscopy (n = 18), those with higher risk perception had less frequent colonoscopy (Pearson's r = 0.49 [0.02, 0.79]). People who decline genetic testing for CRC susceptibility mutations perceive themselves to be at substantially higher risk than they really are. Those with high perceived risk do not undertake screening colonoscopy more often than those who perceive themselves to be at average risk.

Tobacco control interventions for populations living in subsidised, low-income housing: a scoping review.

OBJECTIVES: People living in subsidised low-income housing are more likely to smoke and experience secondhand smoke exposure compared to the general population. While tobacco control interventions have yielded substantial population health benefits, people living in subsidised housing experience a greater burden of tobacco-related harms. We synthesised existing peer-reviewed and grey literature to determine tobacco control interventions that have been implemented in subsidised housing globally, and to understand their impact on smoking and secondhand smoke exposure. METHODS: We searched five databases for peer-reviewed research, and Google Advanced for grey literature. We adhered to the JBI Scoping Review Methodology and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist. RESULTS: Fifty-seven sources met the eligibility criteria. The most common type of intervention was mandatory smoking bans covering all indoor spaces (n = 32), followed by cessation-focused interventions (n = 19). Interventions that indirectly addressed smoking were the least common (n = 6). Our findings suggest smoking bans can increase smoking cessation and reduce secondhand smoke exposure, especially if implemented alongside cessation support strategies. CONCLUSION: Tobacco control interventions targeting subsidised housing demonstrate positive effects on tobacco-related outcomes for residents and provide an important opportunity to address health disparities. Future research should examine the long-term impacts of the interventions, including potential unintended consequences, in varied subsidised housing contexts.

Screening practices of Australian men and women categorized as "at or slightly above average risk" of colorectal cancer.

PURPOSE: Australia has one of the highest incidences of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the world. In 2006, the federal government introduced a screening program consisting of a one-off fecal occult blood test offered to people turning 50, 55, or 65 years. We conducted a population-based study to estimate CRC screening practices existing outside the current program. METHODS: A total of 1887 unaffected subjects categorized "at or slightly above average risk" of CRC were selected from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry. We calculated the proportions of participants that reported appropriate, under- and over-screening according to national guidelines. We performed a logistic regression analysis to evaluate associations between over-screening and a set of socio-demographic factors. RESULTS: Of 532 participants at average risk of CRC, eligible for screening, 4 (0.75 %) reported appropriate screening, 479 (90 %) reported never having been screened, 18 (3 %) reported some but less than appropriate screening, and 31 (6 %) reported over-screening. Of 412 participants aged 50 years or over, slightly above average risk of CRC, 1 participant (0.25 %) reported appropriate screening, 316 (77 %) reported no screening, and 11 (3 %) reported some but less than appropriate screening. Among participants under age 50 years, 2 % of those at average risk and 10 % of those slightly above average risk reported over-screening. Middle-aged people, those with a family history of CRC and those with a university degree, were more likely to be over-screened. CONCLUSION: Overall, the level of CRC screening participation was low and the vast majority of screening tests undertaken were inappropriate in terms of timing, modality, or frequency.

The effect of financial incentives on the quality of health care provided by primary care physicians.

BACKGROUND: The use of blended payment schemes in primary care, including the use of financial incentives to directly reward 'performance' and 'quality' is increasing in a number of countries. There are many examples in the US, and the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QoF) for general practitioners (GPs) in the UK is an example of a major system-wide reform. Despite the popularity of these schemes, there is currently little rigorous evidence of their success in improving the quality of primary health care, or of whether such an approach is cost-effective relative to other ways to improve the quality of care. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this review is to examine the effect of changes in the method and level of payment on the quality of care provided by primary care physicians (PCPs) and to identify:i) the different types of financial incentives that have improved quality;ii) the characteristics of patient populations for whom quality of care has been improved by financial incentives; andiii) the characteristics of PCPs who have responded to financial incentives. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) Trials Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) (The Cochrane Library), MEDLINE, HealthSTAR, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsychLIT, and ECONLIT. Searches of Internet-based economics and health economics working paper collections were also conducted. Finally, studies were identified through the reference lists of retrieved articles, websites of key organisations, and from direct contact with key authors in the field. Articles were included if they were published from 2000 to August 2009. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCT), controlled before and after studies (CBA), and interrupted time series analyses (ITS) evaluating the impact of different financial interventions on the quality of care delivered by primary healthcare physicians (PCPs). Quality of care was defined as patient reported outcome measures, clinical behaviours, and intermediate clinical and physiological measures. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed study quality, in consultation with two other review authors where there was disagreement. For each included study, we reported the estimated effect sizes and confidence intervals. MAIN RESULTS: Seven studies were included in this review. Three of the studies evaluated single-threshold target payments, one examined a fixed fee per patient achieving a specified outcome, one study evaluated payments based on the relative ranking of medical groups' performance (tournament-based pay), one study examined a mix of tournament-based pay and threshold payments, and one study evaluated changing from a blended payments scheme to salaried payment. Three cluster RCTs examined smoking cessation; one CBA examined patients' assessment of the quality of care; one CBA examined cervical screening, mammography screening, and HbA1c; one ITS focused on four outcomes in diabetes; and one controlled ITS (a difference-in-difference design) examined cervical screening, mammography screening, HbA1c, childhood immunisation, chlamydia screening, and appropriate asthma medication. Six of the seven studies showed positive but modest effects on quality of care for some primary outcome measures, but not all. One study found no effect on quality of care. Poor study design led to substantial risk of bias in most studies. In particular, none of the studies addressed issues of selection bias as a result of the ability of primary care physicians to select into or out of the incentive scheme or health plan. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The use of financial incentives to reward PCPs for improving the quality of primary healthcare services is growing. However, there is insufficient evidence to support or not support the use of financial incentives to improve the quality of primary health care. Implementation should proceed with caution and incentive schemes should be more carefully designed before implementation. In addition to basing incentive design more on theory, there is a large literature discussing experiences with these schemes that can be used to draw out a number of lessons that can be learned and that could be used to influence or modify the design of incentive schemes. More rigorous study designs need to be used to account for the selection of physicians into incentive schemes. The use of instrumental variable techniques should be considered to assist with the identification of treatment effects in the presence of selection bias and other sources of unobserved heterogeneity. In randomised trials, care must be taken in using the correct unit of analysis and more attention should be paid to blinding. Studies should also examine the potential unintended consequences of incentive schemes by having a stronger theoretical basis, including a broader range of outcomes, and conducting more extensive subgroup analysis. Studies should more consistently describe i) the type of payment scheme at baseline or in the control group, ii) how payments to medical groups were used and distributed within the groups, and iii) the size of the new payments as a percentage of total revenue. Further research comparing the relative costs and effects of financial incentives with other behaviour change interventions is also required.

Association of Simulated COVID-19 Policy Responses for Social Restrictions and Lockdowns With Health-Adjusted Life-Years and Costs in Victoria, Australia.

Importance: Countries have varied enormously in how they have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic, ranging from elimination strategies (eg, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan) to tight suppression (not aiming for elimination but rather to keep infection rates low [eg, South Korea]) to loose suppression (eg, Europe, United States) to virtually unmitigated (eg, Brazil, India). Weighing the best option, based on health and economic consequences due to lockdowns, is necessary. Objective: To determine the optimal policy response, using a net monetary benefit (NMB) approach, for policies ranging from aggressive elimination and moderate elimination to tight suppression (aiming for 1-5 cases per million per day) and loose suppression (5-25 cases per million per day). Design Setting and Participants: Using governmental data from the state of Victoria, Australia, and other collected data, 2 simulation models in series were conducted of all residents (population, 6.4 million) for SARS-CoV-2 infections for 1 year from September 1, 2020. An agent-based model (ABM) was used to estimate daily SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and time in 5 stages of social restrictions (stages 1, 1b, 2, 3, and 4) for 4 policy response settings (aggressive elimination, moderate elimination, tight suppression, and loose suppression), and a proportional multistate life table (PMSLT) model was used to estimate health-adjusted life-years (HALYs) associated with COVID-19 and costs (health systems and health system plus gross domestic product [GDP]). The ABM is a generic COVID-19 model of 2500 agents, or simulants, that was scaled up to the population of interest. Models were specified with data from 2019 (eg, epidemiological data in the PMSLT model) and 2020 (eg, epidemiological and cost consequences of COVID-19). The NMB of each policy option at varying willingness to pay (WTP) per HALY was calculated: NMB = HALYs × WTP - cost. The estimated most cost-effective (optimal) policy response was that with the highest NMB. Main Outcome and Measures: Estimated SARS-CoV-2 infection rates, time under 5 stages of restrictions, HALYs, health expenditure, and GDP losses. Results: In 100 runs of both the ABM and PMSLT models for each of the 4 policy responses, 31.0% of SARS-CoV-2 infections, 56.5% of hospitalizations, and 84.6% of deaths occurred among those 60 years and older. Aggressive elimination was associated with the highest percentage of days with the lowest level of restrictions (median, 31.7%; 90% simulation interval [SI], 6.6%-64.4%). However, days in hard lockdown were similar across all 4 strategies. The HALY losses (compared with a scenario without COVID-19) were similar for aggressive elimination (median, 286 HALYs; 90% SI, 219-389 HALYs) and moderate elimination (median, 314 HALYs; 90% SI, 228-413 HALYs), and nearly 8 and 40 times higher for tight suppression and loose suppression, respectively. The median GDP loss was least for moderate elimination (median, $41.7 billion; 90% SI, $29.0-$63.6 billion), but there was substantial overlap in simulation intervals between the 4 strategies. From a health system perspective, aggressive elimination was optimal in 64% of simulations above a WTP of $15 000 per HALY, followed by moderate elimination in 35% of simulations. Moderate elimination was optimal from a GDP perspective in half of the simulations, followed by aggressive elimination in a quarter. Conclusions and Relevance: In this simulation modeling economic evaluation of estimated SARS-CoV-infection rates, time under 5 stages of restrictions, HALYs, health expenditure, and GDP losses in Victoria, Australia, an elimination strategy was associated with the least health losses and usually the fewest GDP losses.

The use of a risk assessment and decision support tool (CRISP) compared with usual care in general practice to increase risk-stratified colorectal cancer screening: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Australia and New Zealand have the highest incidence rates of colorectal cancer worldwide. In Australia there is significant unwarranted variation in colorectal cancer screening due to low uptake of the immunochemical faecal occult blood test, poor identification of individuals at increased risk of colorectal cancer, and over-referral of individuals at average risk for colonoscopy. Our pre-trial research has developed a novel Colorectal cancer RISk Prediction (CRISP) tool, which could be used to implement precision screening in primary care. This paper describes the protocol for a phase II multi-site individually randomised controlled trial of the CRISP tool in primary care. METHODS: This trial aims to test whether a standardised consultation using the CRISP tool in general practice (the CRISP intervention) increases risk-appropriate colorectal cancer screening compared to control participants who receive standardised information on cancer prevention. Patients between 50 and 74 years old, attending an appointment with their general practitioner for any reason, will be invited into the trial. A total of 732 participants will be randomised to intervention or control arms using a computer-generated allocation sequence stratified by general practice. The primary outcome (risk-appropriate screening at 12 months) will be measured using baseline data for colorectal cancer risk and objective health service data to measure screening behaviour. Secondary outcomes will include participant cancer risk perception, anxiety, cancer worry, screening intentions and health service utilisation measured at 1, 6 and 12 months post randomisation. DISCUSSION: This trial tests a systematic approach to implementing risk-stratified colorectal cancer screening in primary care, based on an individual's absolute risk, using a state-of-the-art risk assessment tool. Trial results will be reported in 2020. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry, ACTRN12616001573448p . Registered on 14 November 2016.

Alcohol Consumption and the Risk of Colorectal Cancer for Mismatch Repair Gene Mutation Carriers.

Background: People with germline mutation in one of the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes have increased colorectal cancer risk. For these high-risk people, study findings of the relationship between alcohol consumption and colorectal cancer risk have been inconclusive.Methods: 1,925 MMR gene mutations carriers recruited into the Colon Cancer Family Registry who had completed a questionnaire on lifestyle factors were included. Weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between alcohol consumption and colorectal cancer.Results: Colorectal cancer was diagnosed in 769 carriers (40%) at a mean (SD) age of 42.6 (10.3) years. Compared with abstention, ethanol consumption from any alcoholic beverage up to 14 g/day and >28 g/day was associated with increased colorectal cancer risk (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.09-2.07 and 1.69; 95% CI, 1.07-2.65, respectively; Ptrend = 0.05), and colon cancer risk (HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.27-2.49 and 1.94; 95% CI, 1.19-3.18, respectively; Ptrend = 0.02). However, there was no clear evidence for an association with rectal cancer risk. Also, there was no evidence for associations between consumption of individual alcoholic beverage types (beer, wine, spirits) and colorectal, colon, or rectal cancer risk.Conclusions: Our data suggest that alcohol consumption, particularly more than 28 g/day of ethanol (∼2 standard drinks of alcohol in the United States), is associated with increased colorectal cancer risk for MMR gene mutation carriers.Impact: Although these data suggested that alcohol consumption in MMR carriers was associated with increased colorectal cancer risk, there was no evidence of a dose-response, and not all types of alcohol consumption were associated with increased risk. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(3); 366-75. ©2016 AACR.

Determining the familial risk distribution of colorectal cancer: a data mining approach.

This study was aimed to characterize the distribution of colorectal cancer risk using family history of cancers by data mining. Family histories for 10,066 colorectal cancer cases recruited to population cancer registries of the Colon Cancer Family Registry were analyzed using a data mining framework. A novel index was developed to quantify familial cancer aggregation. Artificial neural network was used to identify distinct categories of familial risk. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of colorectal cancer were calculated for each category. We identified five major, and 66 minor categories of familial risk for developing colorectal cancer. The distribution the major risk categories were: (1) 7% of families (SIR = 7.11; 95% CI 6.65-7.59) had a strong family history of colorectal cancer; (2) 13% of families (SIR = 2.94; 95% CI 2.78-3.10) had a moderate family history of colorectal cancer; (3) 11% of families (SIR = 1.23; 95% CI 1.12-1.36) had a strong family history of breast cancer and a weak family history of colorectal cancer; (4) 9 % of families (SIR = 1.06; 95 % CI 0.96-1.18) had strong family history of prostate cancer and weak family history of colorectal cancer; and (5) 60% of families (SIR = 0.61; 95% CI 0.57-0.65) had a weak family history of all cancers. There is a wide variation of colorectal cancer risk that can be categorized by family history of cancer, with a strong gradient of colorectal cancer risk between the highest and lowest risk categories. The risk of colorectal cancer for people with the highest risk category of family history (7% of the population) was 12-times that for people in the lowest risk category (60%) of the population. Data mining was proven an effective approach for gaining insight into the underlying cancer aggregation patterns and for categorizing familial risk of colorectal cancer.