Trends in tuberculosis incidence and mortality coefficients in Brazil, 2011-2019: analysis by inflection points.

Objective: To analyze the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2019. Methods: This was an ecological time series study of tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2019. Data were extracted from the Notifiable Disease Information System and the Mortality Information System, and population estimates were from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression, which recognizes inflection points for temporal analysis. Results: The average incidence rate of tuberculosis in Brazil in the period was 35.8 cases per 100 000 population. From 2011 to 2015, this coefficient had an annual percentage change of -1.9% (95% CI [-3.4, -0.5]) followed by an increase of 2.4% (95% CI [0.9, 3.9]) until 2019. The average mortality rate between 2011 and 2019 was 2.2 deaths per 100 000 population, with an average annual percentage change of -0.4% (95% CI [-1.0, 0.2]). Amazonas was the only state with an increase in the annual average percentage variation for the incidence rate (3.2%; 95% CI [1.3, 5.1]) and mortality rate (2.7%; 95% CI [1.0, 4.4]) over the years, while Rio de Janeiro state had an increasing inflection for incidence from 2014 to 2019 (2.4%; 95% CI [1.4, 3.5]) and annual average of decreasing percentage variation (-3.5%; 95% CI [-5.0, -1.9]). Conclusions: During the period analyzed, a decreasing trend in incidence was observed between 2011 and 2015, and an increasing trend for the period from 2015 to 2019. On the other hand, no change in the trend for mortality was found in Brazil.

The burden of tuberculosis and attributable risk factors in Brazil, 1990-2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be an important cause of fatal and non-fatal burden in Brazil. In this study, we present estimates for TB burden in Brazil from 1990 to 2017 using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017). METHODS: This descriptive study used GBD 2017 findings to report years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of TB in Brazil by sex, age group, HIV status, and Brazilian states, from 1990 to 2017. We also present the TB burden attributable to independent risk factors such as smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes. Results are reported in absolute number and age-standardized rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS: In 2017, the number of DALYs due to TB (HIV-negative and HIV-positive combined) in Brazil was 284,323 (95% UI: 240,269-349,265). Among HIV-negative individuals, the number of DALYs was 196,366 (95% UI: 189,645-202,394), while 87,957 DALYs (95% UI: 50,624-146,870) were estimated among HIV-positive individuals. Between 1990 and 2017, the absolute number and age-standardized rates of DALYs due to TB at the national level decreased by 47.0% and 68.5%, respectively. In 2017, the sex-age-specific TB burden was highest among males and in children under-1 year and the age groups 45-59 years. The Brazilian states with the highest age-standardized DALY rates in 2017 were Rio de Janeiro, Pernambuco, and Amazonas. Age-standardized DALY rates decreased for all 27 Brazilian states between 1990 and 2017. Alcohol use accounted for 47.5% of national DALYs due to TB among HIV-negative individuals in 2017, smoking for 17.9%, and diabetes for 7.7%. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 results show that, despite the remarkable progress in reducing the DALY rates during the period, TB remains as an important and preventable cause of health lost to due premature death and disability in Brazil. The findings reinforce the importance of strengthening TB control strategies in Brazil through integrated and multisectoral actions that enable the access to prevention, early diagnosis, and timely treatment, with emphasis on high-risk groups and populations most vulnerable to the disease in the country.

Knowledge and stigma of latent tuberculosis infection in Brazil: implications for tuberculosis prevention strategies.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) elimination requires treatment of millions of persons with latent M. tuberculosis infection (LTBI). LTBI treatment acceptance depends on population-wide TB knowledge and low stigma, but limited data are available on the relationship between stigma and knowledge. We assessed knowledge of TB disease and LTBI throughout Brazil and examined their association with TB stigma and incidence. METHODS: We performed a nationwide survey with multi-stage probability design through AmericasBarometer from April-May 2017; the sample was representative of Brazil at regional and national levels. Knowledge of and stigma toward TB were assessed by validated survey questions. RESULTS: Survey-weighted responses of 1532 individuals suggest that 57% of the population knew LTBI can occur, and 90% would seek treatment for it. Regarding active TB, 85% knew TB symptoms, 70% reported they should avoid contact with someone with active TB, and 24% had stigma toward persons with TB (i.e., thought persons with tuberculosis should feel ashamed, or deserved their illness). In regression models adjusting for clinical and demographic variables, knowledge of LTBI was associated with increased stigma toward persons with TB (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 2.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1·25-3.63, for "should feel ashamed"; OR = 1·82, 95% CI: 1·15-2·89, for "deserve illness"). Adjusting for regional TB incidence did not affect this association. CONCLUSIONS: High proportions of this representative Brazilian population had knowledge of LTBI and were willing to seek treatment for it. However, such knowledge was associated with TB-specific stigma. Strategies to educate and implement treatment of latent tuberculosis must include efforts to decrease TB stigma.

Mapping the tuberculosis scientific landscape among BRICS countries: a bibliometric and network analysis.

BACKGROUND: The five BRICS (Brazil, Russian, Indian, China, and South Africa) countries bear 49% of the world's tuberculosis (TB) burden and they are committed to ending tuberculosis. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this paper is to map the scientific landscape related to TB research in BRICS countries. METHODS: Were combined bibliometrics and social network analysis techniques to map the scientific publications related to TB produced by the BRICS. Was made a descriptive statistical data covering the full period of analysis (1993-2016) and the research networks were made for 2007-2016 (8,366 records). The bubble charts were generated by VantagePoint and the networks by the Gephi 0.9.1 software (Gephi Consortium 2010) from co-occurrence matrices produced in VantagePoint. The Fruchterman-Reingold algorithm provided the networks' layout. FINDINGS: During the period 1993-2016, there were 38,315 peer-reviewed, among them, there were 11,018 (28.7%) articles related by one or more authors in a BRICS: India 38.7%; China 23.8%; South Africa 21.1%; Brazil 13.0%; and Russia 4.5% (The total was greater than 100% because our criterion was all papers with at least one author in a BRICS). Among the BRICS, there was greater interaction between India and South Africa and organisations in India and China had the highest productivity; however, South African organisations had more interaction with countries outside the BRICS. Publications by and about BRICS generally covered all research areas, especially those in India and China covered all research areas, although Brazil and South Africa prioritised infectious diseases, microbiology, and the respiratory system. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: An overview of BRICS scientific publications and interactions highlighted the necessity to develop a BRICS TB research plan to increase efforts and funding to ensure that basic science research successfully translates into products and policies to help end the TB epidemic.

Evaluation of record linkage of two large administrative databases in a middle income country: stillbirths and notifications of dengue during pregnancy in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Due to the increasing availability of individual-level information across different electronic datasets, record linkage has become an efficient and important research tool. High quality linkage is essential for producing robust results. The objective of this study was to describe the process of preparing and linking national Brazilian datasets, and to compare the accuracy of different linkage methods for assessing the risk of stillbirth due to dengue in pregnancy. METHODS: We linked mothers and stillbirths in two routinely collected datasets from Brazil for 2009-2010: for dengue in pregnancy, notifications of infectious diseases (SINAN); for stillbirths, mortality (SIM). Since there was no unique identifier, we used probabilistic linkage based on maternal name, age and municipality. We compared two probabilistic approaches, each with two thresholds: 1) a bespoke linkage algorithm; 2) a standard linkage software widely used in Brazil (ReclinkIII), and used manual review to identify further links. Sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) were estimated using a subset of gold-standard data created through manual review. We examined the characteristics of false-matches and missed-matches to identify any sources of bias. RESULTS: From records of 678,999 dengue cases and 62,373 stillbirths, the gold-standard linkage identified 191 cases. The bespoke linkage algorithm with a conservative threshold produced 131 links, with sensitivity = 64.4% (68 missed-matches) and PPV = 92.5% (8 false-matches). Manual review of uncertain links identified an additional 37 links, increasing sensitivity to 83.7%. The bespoke algorithm with a relaxed threshold identified 132 true matches (sensitivity = 69.1%), but introduced 61 false-matches (PPV = 68.4%). ReclinkIII produced lower sensitivity and PPV than the bespoke linkage algorithm. Linkage error was not associated with any recorded study variables. CONCLUSION: Despite a lack of unique identifiers for linking mothers and stillbirths, we demonstrate a high standard of linkage of large routine databases from a middle income country. Probabilistic linkage and manual review were essential for accurately identifying cases for a case-control study, but this approach may not be feasible for larger databases or for linkage of more common outcomes.

Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN): main features of tuberculosis notification and data analysis. / Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (Sinan): principais características da notificação e da análise de dados relacionada à tuberculose.

The Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) enables knowledge of the profile of people with active tuberculosis (TB) in a country of continental dimensions such as Brazil. Available in all Brazilian municipalities and states, the system enables continuous consolidation of data, evaluation and monitoring of actions related to TB control in the country. The purpose of this paper is to present the specificities of SINAN-Net related to TB, including the follow-up screen, the record linkage and the follow-up report. Additionally, we describe the main variables and indicators and the challenges and limitations of the system.

O Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (Sinan) possibilita conhecer o perfil das pessoas com tuberculose (TB) ativa em um país continental como o Brasil. Disponível em todos os municípios e estados, o sistema permite contínua consolidação dos dados, avaliação e monitoramento das ações relacionadas ao controle da doença no país. O objetivo deste estudo foi apresentar as especificidades do Sinan-Net referentes à TB, entre elas a tela de acompanhamento, a rotina de vinculação e o boletim de acompanhamento. Adicionalmente, são descritas as principais variáveis e indicadores, os desafios e limitações do sistema.

El Sistema de Información de Agravamientos de Notificación (Sinan) posibilita conocer el perfil de las personas con tuberculosis (TB) activa en un país continental como Brasil. Disponible en todos los municipios y estados, el sistema posibilita una continua consolidación de los datos, evaluación y monitoreo de las acciones relacionadas al control de la enfermedad en el país. El objetivo de este trabajo es presentar las especificidades del Sinan-Net con relación a la TB, entre ellas la pantalla de acompañamiento, la rutina de vinculación y el boletín de acompañamiento. Adicionalmente, describimos las principales variables e indicadores y los desafíos y limitaciones del sistema.

Tuberculosis in Brazil and cash transfer programs: A longitudinal database study of the effect of cash transfer on cure rates.

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis incidence is disproportionately high among people in poverty. Cash transfer programs have become an important strategy in Brazil fight inequalities as part of comprehensive poverty alleviation policies. This study was aimed at assessing the effect of being a beneficiary of a governmental cash transfer program on tuberculosis (TB) treatment cure rates. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal database study including people ≥18 years old with confirmed incident TB in Brazil in 2015. We treated missing data with multiple imputation. Poisson regression models with robust variance were carried out to assess the effect of TB determinants on cure rates. The average effect of being beneficiary of cash transfer was estimated by propensity-score matching. RESULTS: In 2015, 25,084 women and men diagnosed as new tuberculosis case, of whom 1,714 (6.8%) were beneficiaries of a national cash transfer. Among the total population with pulmonary tuberculosis several determinants were associated with cure rates. However, among the cash transfer group, this association was vanished in males, blacks, region of residence, and people not deprived of their freedom and who smoke tobacco. The average treatment effect of cash transfers on TB cure rates, based on propensity score matching, found that being beneficiary of cash transfer improved TB cure rates by 8% [Coefficient 0.08 (95% confidence interval 0.06-0.11) in subjects with pulmonary TB]. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that, in Brazil, the effect of cash transfer on the outcome of TB treatment may be achieved by the indirect effect of other determinants. Also, these results suggest the direct effect of being beneficiary of cash transfer on improving TB cure rates.

Tuberculosis burden on AIDS in Brazil: A study using linked databases.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the burden of tuberculosis (TB) in reported AIDS cases, to compare the characteristics of TB/HIV subjects with those without TB and to evaluate survival with or without TB in Brazil. METHODS: The data source was the linked database between AIDS (2011-2014) and TB (2011-2014) databases from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN). The sociodemographic, clinical, laboratory results and use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) data were compared by TB occurrence or not. Survival probability was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and associated factors were sought using Cox regression. RESULTS: The proportion of TB diagnosed from 2011 to 2014 among AIDS cases reported between 2006 and 2014 was 6.3%. Subjects coinfected with TB were predominantly male, older, with lower schooling, with lower CD4 count, higher viral load, and higher proportion of ART initiation than those without TB. 57.5% were diagnosed with HIV before TB, 38.2% as concurrent TB/HIV and 4.3% with TB before HIV. 16,466 reported TB cases were not found in the AIDS database, although registered as HIV-infected in the SINAN TB database between 2011 and 2014. Median survival for PLHIV was 581 days, with 582 for those without TB, significantly higher than 547 for those with TB (log-rank teste, p = 0,001). In the Cox multivariate analysis, male gender [aHR = 1.27 (CI 95% 1.22-1.33)], older age [aHR = 1.020 (CI 95% 1.019-1.022)] and TB coinfection [aHR = 1.97 (CI 95% 1.88-2.07)] were positively associated with adjusted hazard of death, whereas CD4 count 200-499 cells [aHR = 0.21 (CI 95% 0.20-0.22)] and receiving ART [aHR = 0.2 2(CI 95% 0.21-0.23)] reduced the risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-infected subjects should be screened for TB at care entry, to minimize diagnosis and treatment delays when active TB is present or to increase the odds of being offered latent TB infection therapy to prevent TB. On the other hand, TB cases should be promptly tested for HIV. All those will contribute to reduce mortality among people living with AIDS.

Tuberculosis: renewed challenge in Brazil.

This article reviews tuberculosis control actions performed over the last decade, at a global level. The perspectives for the fulfillment of the goals of the new Global Tuberculosis Elimination Plan are described, where the insertion of social protection (Pillar 2) and research (Pillar 3) will play an innovative and strategic role, especially in high-burden countries, like Brazil.

Trends in tuberculosis incidence and mortality coefficients in Brazil, 2011-2019: analysis by inflection points / Tendencias de los coeficientes de incidencia y mortalidad por tuberculosis en Brasil, 2011-2019: análisis por puntos de inflexión / Tendências nos coeficientes de incidência e mortalidade por tuberculose no Brasil, 2011-2019: análise por pontos de inflexão

ABSTRACT Objective. To analyze the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2019. Methods. This was an ecological time series study of tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2019. Data were extracted from the Notifiable Disease Information System and the Mortality Information System, and population estimates were from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression, which recognizes inflection points for temporal analysis. Results. The average incidence rate of tuberculosis in Brazil in the period was 35.8 cases per 100 000 population. From 2011 to 2015, this coefficient had an annual percentage change of -1.9% (95% CI [-3.4, -0.5]) followed by an increase of 2.4% (95% CI [0.9, 3.9]) until 2019. The average mortality rate between 2011 and 2019 was 2.2 deaths per 100 000 population, with an average annual percentage change of -0.4% (95% CI [-1.0, 0.2]). Amazonas was the only state with an increase in the annual average percentage variation for the incidence rate (3.2%; 95% CI [1.3, 5.1]) and mortality rate (2.7%; 95% CI [1.0, 4.4]) over the years, while Rio de Janeiro state had an increasing inflection for incidence from 2014 to 2019 (2.4%; 95% CI [1.4, 3.5]) and annual average of decreasing percentage variation (-3.5%; 95% CI [-5.0, -1.9]). Conclusions. During the period analyzed, a decreasing trend in incidence was observed between 2011 and 2015, and an increasing trend for the period from 2015 to 2019. On the other hand, no change in the trend for mortality was found in Brazil.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Analizar la tendencia temporal de las tasas de incidencia y mortalidad por tuberculosis en Brasil entre el 2011 y el 2019. Métodos. Este fue un estudio ecológico de series temporales de las tasas de incidencia y mortalidad por tuberculosis en Brasil entre el 2011 y el 2019. Los datos se obtuvieron del Sistema de Información sobre Enfermedades de Notificación Obligatoria y del Sistema de Información sobre Mortalidad, y las estimaciones de población proceden del Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística. Las tendencias se analizaron mediante el programa de regresión Joinpoint, que reconoce los puntos de inflexión para el análisis temporal. Resultados. La tasa promedio de incidencia de tuberculosis en Brasil para el periodo fue de 35,8 casos por 100 000 habitantes. Entre el 2011 y el 2015, este coeficiente experimentó una variación porcentual anual del -1,9% (intervalo de confianza [IC] del 95% [-3,4, -0,5]), seguida por un aumento del 2,4% (IC 95% [0,9, 3,9]) hasta el 2019. La tasa de mortalidad promedio entre el 2011 y el 2019 fue de 2,2 muertes por cada 100 000 habitantes, con una variación porcentual promedio anual del -0,4% (IC del 95% [-1,0, 0,2]). El estado de Amazonas fue el único que a lo largo de los años presentó un aumento de la variación porcentual promedio anual de la tasa de incidencia (3,2%; IC del 95% [1,3, 5,1]) y de la tasa de mortalidad (2,7%; IC del 95% [1,0, 4,4]), en tanto que, entre el 2014 y el 2019, el estado de Río de Janeiro presentó una inflexión creciente de la incidencia (2,4%; IC del 95% [1,4, 3,5]) y una variación porcentual promedio anual decreciente (-3,5%; IC del 95% [-5,0, -1,9]). Conclusiones. Durante el periodo analizado, se observa una tendencia decreciente de la incidencia entre el 2011 y el 2015, y una tendencia creciente para el periodo comprendido entre el 2015 y el 2019. En cambio, no se encontró ningún cambio en la tendencia de la mortalidad en Brasil.

RESUMO Objetivo. Analisar a tendência temporal das taxas de incidência e mortalidade por tuberculose no Brasil entre 2011 e 2019. Métodos. Estudo ecológico de série temporal das taxas de incidência e mortalidade por tuberculose no Brasil entre 2011 e 2019. Os dados foram extraídos do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação e do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade, e as estimativas populacionais foram obtidas do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. As tendências foram analisadas por regressão joinpoint, que reconhece pontos de inflexão para análise temporal. Resultados. A taxa média de incidência da tuberculose no Brasil no período foi de 35,8 casos por 100 mil habitantes. O coeficiente teve uma variação percentual anual de -1,9% (IC 95% [-3,4; -0,5]) de 2011 a 2015, seguida de um aumento de 2,4% (IC 95% [0,9; 3,9]) até 2019. A taxa média de mortalidade entre 2011 e 2019 foi de 2,2 óbitos por 100 mil habitantes, com uma variação percentual anual média de -0,4% (IC 95% [-1,0; 0,2]). Ao longo dos anos, o Amazonas foi o único estado com aumento na variação percentual anual média na taxa de incidência (3,2%; IC 95% [1,3; 5,1]) e na taxa de mortalidade (2,7%; IC 95% [1,0; 4,4]). Já o estado do Rio de Janeiro teve inflexão crescente na incidência de 2014 a 2019 (2,4%; IC 95% [1,4; 3,5]) e média anual de variação percentual decrescente (-3,5%; IC 95% [-5,0; -1,9]). Conclusões. Durante o período analisado, foi observada uma tendência decrescente na incidência entre 2011 e 2015 e crescente entre 2015 e 2019. Por outro lado, não foi encontrada nenhuma mudança na tendência de mortalidade no Brasil.

Identifying socioeconomic, epidemiological and operational scenarios for tuberculosis control in Brazil: an ecological study.

OBJECTIVES: To identify scenarios based on socioeconomic, epidemiological and operational healthcare factors associated with tuberculosis incidence in Brazil. DESIGN: Ecological study. SETTINGS: The study was based on new patients with tuberculosis and epidemiological/operational variables of the disease from the Brazilian National Information System for Notifiable Diseases and the Mortality Information System. We also analysed socioeconomic and demographic variables. PARTICIPANTS: The units of analysis were the Brazilian municipalities, which in 2015 numbered 5570 but 5 were excluded due to the absence of socioeconomic information. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Tuberculosis incidence rate in 2015. DATA ANALYSIS: We evaluated as independent variables the socioeconomic (2010), epidemiological and operational healthcare indicators of tuberculosis (2014 or 2015) using negative binomial regression. Municipalities were clustered by the k-means method considering the variables identified in multiple regression models. RESULTS: We identified two clusters according to socioeconomic variables associated with the tuberculosis incidence rate (unemployment rate and household crowding): a higher socioeconomic scenario (n=3482 municipalities) with a mean tuberculosis incidence rate of 16.3/100 000 population and a lower socioeconomic scenario (2083 municipalities) with a mean tuberculosis incidence rate of 22.1/100 000 population. In a second stage of clusterisation, we defined four subgroups in each of the socioeconomic scenarios using epidemiological and operational variables such as tuberculosis mortality rate, AIDS case detection rate and proportion of vulnerable population among patients with tuberculosis. Some of the subscenarios identified were characterised by fragility in their information systems, while others were characterised by the concentration of tuberculosis cases in key populations. CONCLUSION: Clustering municipalities in scenarios allowed us to classify them according to the socioeconomic, epidemiological and operational variables associated with tuberculosis risk. This classification can support targeted evidence-based decisions such as monitoring data quality for improving the information system or establishing integrative social protective policies for key populations.

Mapping the tuberculosis scientific landscape among BRICS countries: a bibliometric and network analysis

BACKGROUND The five BRICS (Brazil, Russian, Indian, China, and South Africa) countries bear 49% of the world's tuberculosis (TB) burden and they are committed to ending tuberculosis. OBJECTIVES The aim of this paper is to map the scientific landscape related to TB research in BRICS countries. METHODS Were combined bibliometrics and social network analysis techniques to map the scientific publications related to TB produced by the BRICS. Was made a descriptive statistical data covering the full period of analysis (1993-2016) and the research networks were made for 2007-2016 (8,366 records). The bubble charts were generated by VantagePoint and the networks by the Gephi 0.9.1 software (Gephi Consortium 2010) from co-occurrence matrices produced in VantagePoint. The Fruchterman-Reingold algorithm provided the networks' layout. FINDINGS During the period 1993-2016, there were 38,315 peer-reviewed, among them, there were 11,018 (28.7%) articles related by one or more authors in a BRICS: India 38.7%; China 23.8%; South Africa 21.1%; Brazil 13.0%; and Russia 4.5% (The total was greater than 100% because our criterion was all papers with at least one author in a BRICS). Among the BRICS, there was greater interaction between India and South Africa and organisations in India and China had the highest productivity; however, South African organisations had more interaction with countries outside the BRICS. Publications by and about BRICS generally covered all research areas, especially those in India and China covered all research areas, although Brazil and South Africa prioritised infectious diseases, microbiology, and the respiratory system. MAIN CONCLUSIONS An overview of BRICS scientific publications and interactions highlighted the necessity to develop a BRICS TB research plan to increase efforts and funding to ensure that basic science research successfully translates into products and policies to help end the TB epidemic.

Tuberculosis: renewed challenge in Brazil

Abstract This article reviews tuberculosis control actions performed over the last decade, at a global level. The perspectives for the fulfillment of the goals of the new Global Tuberculosis Elimination Plan are described, where the insertion of social protection (Pillar 2) and research (Pillar 3) will play an innovative and strategic role, especially in high-burden countries, like Brazil.