Incorporating expert judgments in utility evaluation of bacteroidales qPCR assays for microbial source tracking in a drinking water source.

Several assays for the detection of host-specific genetic markers of the order Bacteroidales have been developed and used for microbial source tracking (MST) in environmental waters. It is recognized that the source-sensitivity and source-specificity are unknown and variable when introducing these assays in new geographic regions, which reduces their reliability and use. A Bayesian approach was developed to incorporate expert judgments with regional assay sensitivity and specificity assessments in a utility evaluation of a human and a ruminant-specific qPCR assay for MST in a drinking water source. Water samples from Lake Rådasjön were analyzed for E. coli, intestinal enterococci and somatic coliphages through cultivation and for human (BacH) and ruminant-specific (BacR) markers through qPCR assays. Expert judgments were collected regarding the probability of human and ruminant fecal contamination based on fecal indicator organism data and subjective information. Using Bayes formula, the conditional probability of a true human or ruminant fecal contamination given the presence of BacH or BacR was determined stochastically from expert judgments and regional qPCR assay performance, using Beta distributions to represent uncertainties. A web-based computational tool was developed for the procedure, which provides a measure of confidence to findings of host-specific markers and demonstrates the information value from these assays.

Performance characteristics of qPCR assays targeting human- and ruminant-associated bacteroidetes for microbial source tracking across sixteen countries on six continents.

Numerous quantitative PCR assays for microbial fecal source tracking (MST) have been developed and evaluated in recent years. Widespread application has been hindered by a lack of knowledge regarding the geographical stability and hence applicability of such methods beyond the regional level. This study assessed the performance of five previously reported quantitative PCR assays targeting human-, cattle-, or ruminant-associated Bacteroidetes populations on 280 human and animal fecal samples from 16 countries across six continents. The tested cattle-associated markers were shown to be ruminant-associated. The quantitative distributions of marker concentrations in target and nontarget samples proved to be essential for the assessment of assay performance and were used to establish a new metric for quantitative source-specificity. In general, this study demonstrates that stable target populations required for marker-based MST occur around the globe. Ruminant-associated marker concentrations were strongly correlated with total intestinal Bacteroidetes populations and with each other, indicating that the detected ruminant-associated populations seem to be part of the intestinal core microbiome of ruminants worldwide. Consequently tested ruminant-targeted assays appear to be suitable quantitative MST tools beyond the regional level while the targeted human-associated populations seem to be less prevalent and stable, suggesting potential for improvements in human-targeted methods.

Short-term microbial release during rain events from on-site sewers and cattle in a surface water source.

The protection of drinking water from pathogens such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia requires an understanding of the short-term microbial release from faecal contamination sources in the catchment. Flow-weighted samples were collected during two rainfall events in a stream draining an area with on-site sewers and during two rainfall events in surface runoff from a bovine cattle pasture. Samples were analysed for human (BacH) and ruminant (BacR) Bacteroidales genetic markers through quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and for sorbitol-fermenting bifidobacteria through culturing as a complement to traditional faecal indicator bacteria, somatic coliphages and the parasitic protozoa Cryptosporidium spp. and Giardia spp. analysed by standard methods. Significant positive correlations were observed between BacH, Escherichia coli, intestinal enterococci, sulphite-reducing Clostridia, turbidity, conductivity and UV254 in the stream contaminated by on-site sewers. For the cattle pasture, no correlation was found between any of the genetic markers and the other parameters. Although parasitic protozoa were not detected, the analysis for genetic markers provided baseline data on the short-term faecal contamination due to these potential sources of parasites. Background levels of BacH and BacR makers in soil emphasise the need to including soil reference samples in qPCR-based analyses for Bacteroidales genetic markers.

Decay of Bacteroidales genetic markers in relation to traditional fecal indicators for water quality modeling of drinking water sources.

The implementation of microbial fecal source tracking (MST) methods in drinking water management is limited by the lack of knowledge on the transport and decay of host-specific genetic markers in water sources. To address these limitations, the decay and transport of human (BacH) and ruminant (BacR) fecal Bacteroidales 16S rRNA genetic markers in a drinking water source (Lake Rådasjön in Sweden) were simulated using a microbiological model coupled to a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The microbiological model was calibrated using data from outdoor microcosm trials performed in March, August, and November 2010 to determine the decay of BacH and BacR markers in relation to traditional fecal indicators. The microcosm trials indicated that the persistence of BacH and BacR in the microcosms was not significantly different from the persistence of traditional fecal indicators. The modeling of BacH and BacR transport within the lake illustrated that the highest levels of genetic markers at the raw water intakes were associated with human fecal sources (on-site sewers and emergency sewer overflow). This novel modeling approach improves the interpretation of MST data, especially when fecal pollution from the same host group is released into the water source from different sites in the catchment.

Estimation of pathogen concentrations in a drinking water source using hydrodynamic modelling and microbial source tracking.

The faecal contamination of drinking water sources can lead to waterborne disease outbreaks. To estimate a potential risk for waterborne infections caused by faecal contamination of drinking water sources, knowledge of the pathogen concentrations in raw water is required. We suggest a novel approach to estimate pathogen concentrations in a drinking water source by using microbial source tracking data and fate and transport modelling. First, the pathogen (norovirus, Cryptosporidium, Escherichia coli O157/H7) concentrations in faecal contamination sources around the drinking water source Lake Rådasjön in Sweden were estimated for endemic and epidemic conditions using measured concentrations of faecal indicators (E. coli and Bacteroidales genetic markers). Afterwards, the fate and transport of pathogens within the lake were simulated using a three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic and microbiological model. This approach provided information on the contribution from different contamination sources to the pathogen concentrations at the water intake of a drinking water treatment plant. This approach addresses the limitations of monitoring and provides data for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) and risk management in the context of faecal contamination of surface drinking water sources.