Can Supercooled Phase Transitions Explain the Gravitational Wave Background Observed by Pulsar Timing Arrays?

Several pulsar timing array collaborations recently reported evidence of a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) at nHz frequencies. While the SGWB could originate from the merger of supermassive black holes, it could be a signature of new physics near the 100 MeV scale. Supercooled first-order phase transitions (FOPTs) that end at the 100 MeV scale are intriguing explanations, because they could connect the nHz signal to new physics at the electroweak scale or beyond. Here, however, we provide a clear demonstration that it is not simple to create a nHz signal from a supercooled phase transition, due to two crucial issues that could rule out many proposed supercooled explanations and should be checked. As an example, we use a model based on nonlinearly realized electroweak symmetry that has been cited as evidence for a supercooled explanation. First, we show that a FOPT cannot complete for the required transition temperature of around 100 MeV. Such supercooling implies a period of vacuum domination that hinders bubble percolation and transition completion. Second, we show that even if completion is not required or if this constraint is evaded, the Universe typically reheats to the scale of any physics driving the FOPT. The hierarchy between the transition and reheating temperature makes it challenging to compute the spectrum of the SGWB.

Simple and statistically sound recommendations for analysing physical theories.

Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.

Hadronic uncertainties versus new physics for the W boson mass and Muon g - 2 anomalies.

There are now two single measurements of precision observables that have major anomalies in the Standard Model: the recent CDF measurement of the W mass shows a 7σ deviation and the Muon g - 2 experiment at FNAL confirmed a long-standing anomaly, implying a 4.2σ deviation. Doubts regarding new physics interpretations of these anomalies could stem from uncertainties in the common hadronic contributions. We demonstrate that these two anomalies pull the hadronic contributions in opposite directions by performing electroweak fits in which the hadronic contribution was allowed to float. The fits show that including the g - 2 measurement worsens the tension with the CDF measurement and conversely that adjustments that alleviate the CDF tension worsen the g - 2 tension beyond 5σ. This means that if we adopt the CDF W mass measurement, the case for new physics in either the W mass or muon g - 2 is inescapable regardless of the size of the SM hadronic contributions. Lastly, we demonstrate that a mixed scalar leptoquark extension of the Standard Model could explain both anomalies simultaneously.

Global analyses of Higgs portal singlet dark matter models using GAMBIT.

We present global analyses of effective Higgs portal dark matter models in the frequentist and Bayesian statistical frameworks. Complementing earlier studies of the scalar Higgs portal, we use GAMBIT to determine the preferred mass and coupling ranges for models with vector, Majorana and Dirac fermion dark matter. We also assess the relative plausibility of all four models using Bayesian model comparison. Our analysis includes up-to-date likelihood functions for the dark matter relic density, invisible Higgs decays, and direct and indirect searches for weakly-interacting dark matter including the latest XENON1T data. We also account for important uncertainties arising from the local density and velocity distribution of dark matter, nuclear matrix elements relevant to direct detection, and Standard Model masses and couplings. In all Higgs portal models, we find parameter regions that can explain all of dark matter and give a good fit to all data. The case of vector dark matter requires the most tuning and is therefore slightly disfavoured from a Bayesian point of view. In the case of fermionic dark matter, we find a strong preference for including a CP-violating phase that allows suppression of constraints from direct detection experiments, with odds in favour of CP violation of the order of 100:1. Finally, we present DDCalc 2.0.0, a tool for calculating direct detection observables and likelihoods for arbitrary non-relativistic effective operators.

Impact of vacuum stability, perturbativity and XENON1T on global fits of Z 2 and Z 3 scalar singlet dark matter.

Scalar singlet dark matter is one of the simplest and most predictive realisations of the WIMP (weakly-interacting massive particle) idea. Although the model is constrained from all directions by the latest experimental data, it still has viable regions of parameter space. Another compelling aspect of scalar singlets is their ability to stabilise the electroweak vacuum. Indeed, models of scalar dark matter are not low-energy effective theories, but can be valid all the way to the Planck scale. Using the GAMBIT framework, we present the first global fit to include both the low-energy experimental constraints and the theoretical constraints from UV physics, considering models with a scalar singlet charged under either a Z 2 or a Z 3 symmetry. We show that if the model is to satisfy all experimental constraints, completely stabilise the electroweak vacuum up to high scales, and also remain perturbative to those scales, one is driven to a relatively small region of parameter space. This region has a Higgs-portal coupling slightly less than 1, a dark matter mass of 1-2 TeV and a spin-independent nuclear scattering cross-section around 10 - 45 cm 2 .

Status of the scalar singlet dark matter model.

One of the simplest viable models for dark matter is an additional neutral scalar, stabilised by a Z 2 symmetry. Using the GAMBIT package and combining results from four independent samplers, we present Bayesian and frequentist global fits of this model. We vary the singlet mass and coupling along with 13 nuisance parameters, including nuclear uncertainties relevant for direct detection, the local dark matter density, and selected quark masses and couplings. We include the dark matter relic density measured by Planck, direct searches with LUX, PandaX, SuperCDMS and XENON100, limits on invisible Higgs decays from the Large Hadron Collider, searches for high-energy neutrinos from dark matter annihilation in the Sun with IceCube, and searches for gamma rays from annihilation in dwarf galaxies with the Fermi-LAT. Viable solutions remain at couplings of order unity, for singlet masses between the Higgs mass and about 300 GeV, and at masses above ∼ 1 TeV. Only in the latter case can the scalar singlet constitute all of dark matter. Frequentist analysis shows that the low-mass resonance region, where the singlet is about half the mass of the Higgs, can also account for all of dark matter, and remains viable. However, Bayesian considerations show this region to be rather fine-tuned.