Adaptive sequence divergence forged new neurodevelopmental enhancers in humans.

Searches for the genetic underpinnings of uniquely human traits have focused on human-specific divergence in conserved genomic regions, which reflects adaptive modifications of existing functional elements. However, the study of conserved regions excludes functional elements that descended from previously neutral regions. Here, we demonstrate that the fastest-evolved regions of the human genome, which we term "human ancestor quickly evolved regions" (HAQERs), rapidly diverged in an episodic burst of directional positive selection prior to the human-Neanderthal split, before transitioning to constraint within hominins. HAQERs are enriched for bivalent chromatin states, particularly in gastrointestinal and neurodevelopmental tissues, and genetic variants linked to neurodevelopmental disease. We developed a multiplex, single-cell in vivo enhancer assay to discover that rapid sequence divergence in HAQERs generated hominin-unique enhancers in the developing cerebral cortex. We propose that a lack of pleiotropic constraints and elevated mutation rates poised HAQERs for rapid adaptation and subsequent susceptibility to disease.

Gonomics: uniting high performance and readability for genomics with Go.

SUMMARY: Many existing software libraries for genomics require researchers to pick between competing considerations: the performance of compiled languages and the accessibility of interpreted languages. Go, a modern compiled language, provides an opportunity to address this conflict. We introduce Gonomics, an open-source collection of command line programs and bioinformatic libraries implemented in Go that unites readability and performance for genomic analyses. Gonomics contains packages to read, write, and manipulate a wide array of file formats (e.g. FASTA, FASTQ, BED, BEDPE, SAM, BAM, and VCF), and can convert and interface between these formats. Furthermore, our modular library structure provides a flexible platform for researchers developing their own software tools to address specific questions. These commands can be combined and incorporated into complex pipelines to meet the growing need for high-performance bioinformatic resources. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Gonomics is implemented in the Go programming language. Source code, installation instructions, and documentation are freely available at https://github.com/vertgenlab/gonomics.

Long-term Trends in Infection-Related Mortality in Adults Treated With Maintenance Dialysis.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Infection is 1 of the top 3 causes of death in patients receiving maintenance dialysis. We evaluated the trends over time and risk factors for infection-related deaths among people receiving dialysis. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: We included all adults who began dialysis between 1980 and 2018 in Australia and New Zealand. EXPOSURE: Age, sex, dialysis modality, and dialysis era. OUTCOME: Infection-related death. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Incidence was described and standardized mortality ratios (SMR) calculated for infection-related death. Fine-Gray subdistribution hazards models were fitted, with non-infection-related death and kidney transplantation treated as competing events. RESULTS: The study comprised 46,074 patients who received hemodialysis and 20,653 who were treated with peritoneal dialysis who were followed for 164,536 and 69,846 person-years, respectively. There were 38,463 deaths during the follow-up period, 12% of which were ascribed to infection. The overall rate of mortality from infection (per 10,000 person-years) was 185 and 232 for patients treated with hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis, respectively. The rates were 184 and 219 for males and females, respectively; and 99, 181, 255, and 292 for patients aged 18-44, 45-64, 65-74, 75 years and over, respectively. The rates were 224 and 163 for those commencing dialysis in years 1980-2005 and 2006-2018, respectively. The overall SMR declined over time, from 37.1 (95% CI, 35.5-38.8) in years 1980-2005 to 19.3 (95% CI, 18.4-20.3) in years 2006-2018, consistent with the declining 5-year SMR trend (P<0.001). Infection-related mortality was associated with being female, older age, and Aboriginal and/or a Torres Strait Islander or Maori. LIMITATIONS: Mediation analyses defining the causal relationships between infection type and infection-related death could not be undertaken as disaggregating the data was not feasible. CONCLUSIONS: The excess risk of infection-related death in patients on dialysis has improved substantially over time but remains more than 20 times higher than in the general population.

Factors Associated With Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia in Patients With CKD.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The risk of developing colorectal cancer in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is twice that of the general population, but the factors associated with colorectal cancer are poorly understood. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with advanced colorectal neoplasia in patients with CKD. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Patients with CKD stages 3-5, including those treated with maintenance dialysis or transplantation across 11 sites in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Spain, were screened for colorectal neoplasia using a fecal immunochemical test (FIT) as part of the Detecting Bowel Cancer in CKD (DETECT) Study. EXPOSURE: Baseline characteristics for patients at the time of study enrollment were ascertained, including duration of CKD, comorbidities, and medications. OUTCOME: Advanced colorectal neoplasia was identified through a 2-step verification process with colonoscopy following positive FIT and 2-year clinical follow-up for all patients. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Potential factors associated with advanced colorectal neoplasia were explored using multivariable logistic regression. Sensitivity analyses were performed using grouped LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 1,706 patients who received FIT-based screening-791 with CKD stages 3-5 not receiving kidney replacement therapy (KRT), 418 receiving dialysis, and 497 patients with a functioning kidney transplant-117 patients (6.9%) were detected to have advanced colorectal neoplasia (54 with CKD stages 3-5 without KRT, 34 receiving dialysis, and 29 transplant recipients), including 9 colorectal cancers. The factors found to be associated with advanced colorectal neoplasia included older age (OR per year older, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.03-1.07], P<0.001), male sex (OR, 2.27 [95% CI, 1.45-3.54], P<0.001), azathioprine use (OR, 2.99 [95% CI, 1.40-6.37], P=0.005), and erythropoiesis-stimulating agent use (OR, 1.92 [95% CI, 1.22-3.03], P=0.005). Grouped LASSO logistic regression revealed similar associations between these factors and advanced colorectal neoplasia. LIMITATIONS: Unmeasured confounding factors. CONCLUSIONS: Older age, male sex, erythropoiesis-stimulating agents, and azathioprine were found to be significantly associated with advanced colorectal neoplasia in patients with CKD.

Association Between Side of Living Kidney Donation and Post-Transplant Outcomes.

Background: Right-sided living donor kidneys have longer renal arteries and shorter veins that make vascular anastomosis more challenging. We sought to determine whether recipients of right-sided living donor kidneys have worse outcomes than left-sided kidney recipients. Methods: An observational analysis of the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry (ANZDATA) was undertaken. We used adjusted logistic regression to determine the association between side and delayed graft function (DGF) and time-stratified adjusted cox regression models for graft and patient survivals. Results: Between 2004 and 2018, 4,050 living donor kidney transplants were conducted with 696 (17.2%) using right kidneys. With reference to left kidneys, the adjusted OR (95% CI) for DGF was 2.01 (1.31-3.09) for recipients with right kidneys. Within 30 days, 46 allografts (1.4%) were lost, with major causes of overall graft loss being technical, primary non-function and death. Recipients of right donor kidneys experienced a greater risk of early graft loss (aHR 2.02 [95% CI 1.06-3.86], p = 0.03), but not beyond 30 days (aHR 0.97 [95% CI 0.80-1.19], p = 0.8]). Conclusion: Technical challenge is the most common cause of early graft loss. The risk of early graft loss among recipients who received right kidneys is doubled compared to those who received left living donor kidneys.

Immunosuppressive treatment for primary membranous nephropathy in adults with nephrotic syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Primary membranous nephropathy (PMN) is a common cause of nephrotic syndrome in adults. Without treatment, approximately 30% of patients will experience spontaneous remission and one third will have persistent proteinuria. Approximately one-third of patients progress toward end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) within 10 years. Immunosuppressive treatment aims to protect kidney function and is recommended for patients who do not show improvement of proteinuria by supportive therapy, and for patients with severe nephrotic syndrome at presentation due to the high risk of developing ESKD. The efficacy and safety of different immunosuppressive regimens are unclear. This is an update of a Cochrane review, first published in 2004 and updated in 2013. OBJECTIVES: The aim was to evaluate the safety and efficacy of different immunosuppressive treatments for adult patients with PMN and nephrotic syndrome. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Kidney and Transplant Register of Studies up to 1 April 2021 with support from the Cochrane Kidney and Transplant Information Specialist using search terms relevant to this review. Studies in the Register were identified through searches of CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and EMBASE, conference proceedings, the International Clinical Trials Register (ICTRP) Search Portal and ClinicalTrials.gov. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) investigating effects of immunosuppression in adults with PMN and nephrotic syndrome were included. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Study selection, data extraction, quality assessment, and data synthesis were performed using Cochrane-recommended methods. Summary estimates of effect were obtained using a random-effects model, and results were expressed as risk ratios (RR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) for dichotomous outcomes, and mean difference (MD) and 95% CI for continuous outcomes. Confidence in the evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. MAIN RESULTS: Sixty-five studies (3807 patients) were included. Most studies exhibited a high risk of bias for the domains, blinding of study personnel, participants and outcome assessors, and most studies were judged unclear for randomisation sequence generation and allocation concealment. Immunosuppressive treatment versus placebo/no treatment/non-immunosuppressive treatment In moderate certainty evidence, immunosuppressive treatment probably makes little or no difference to death, probably reduces the overall risk of ESKD (16 studies, 944 participants: RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.99; I² = 22%), probably increases total remission (complete and partial) (6 studies, 879 participants: RR 1.44, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.97; I² = 73%) and complete remission (16 studies, 879 participants: RR 1.70, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.75; I² = 43%), and probably decreases the number with doubling of serum creatinine (SCr) (9 studies, 447 participants: RR 0.46, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.80; I² = 21%). However, immunosuppressive treatment may increase the number of patients relapsing after complete or partial remission (3 studies, 148 participants): RR 1.73, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.86; I² = 0%) and may lead to a greater number experiencing temporary or permanent discontinuation/hospitalisation due to adverse events (18 studies, 927 participants: RR 5.33, 95% CI 2.19 to 12.98; I² = 0%). Immunosuppressive treatment has uncertain effects on infection and malignancy. Oral alkylating agents with or without steroids versus placebo/no treatment/steroids Oral alkylating agents with or without steroids had uncertain effects on death but may reduce the overall risk of ESKD (9 studies, 537 participants: RR 0.42, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.74; I² = 0%; low certainty evidence). Total (9 studies, 468 participants: RR 1.37, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.82; I² = 70%) and complete remission (8 studies, 432 participants: RR 2.12, 95% CI 1.33 to 3.38; I² = 37%) may increase, but had uncertain effects on the number of patients relapsing, and decreasing the number with doubling of SCr. Alkylating agents may be associated with a higher rate of adverse events leading to discontinuation or hospitalisation (8 studies 439 participants: RR 6.82, 95% CI 2.24 to 20.71; I² = 0%). Oral alkylating agents with or without steroids had uncertain effects on infection and malignancy. Calcineurin inhibitors (CNI) with or without steroids versus placebo/no treatment/supportive therapy/steroids We are uncertain whether CNI with or without steroids increased or decreased the risk of death or ESKD, increased or decreased total or complete remission, or reduced relapse after complete or partial remission (low to very low certainty evidence). CNI also had uncertain effects on decreasing the number with a doubling of SCr, temporary or permanent discontinuation or hospitalisation due to adverse events, infection, or malignancy. Calcineurin inhibitors (CNI) with or without steroids versus alkylating agents with or without steroids We are uncertain whether CNI with or without steroids increases or decreases the risk of death or ESKD. CNI with or without steroids may make little or no difference to total remission (10 studies, 538 participants: RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.15; I² = 53%; moderate certainty evidence) or complete remission (10 studies, 538 participants: RR 1.15, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.56; I² = 56%; low certainty evidence). CNI with or without steroids may increase relapse after complete or partial remission. CNI with or without steroids had uncertain effects on SCr increase, adverse events, infection, and malignancy. Other immunosuppressive treatments Other interventions included azathioprine, mizoribine, adrenocorticotropic hormone, traditional Chinese medicines, and monoclonal antibodies such as rituximab. There were insufficient data to draw conclusions on these treatments. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: This updated review strengthened the evidence that immunosuppressive therapy is probably superior to non-immunosuppressive therapy in inducing remission and reducing the number of patients that progress to ESKD. However, these benefits need to be balanced against the side effects of immunosuppressive drugs. The number of included studies with high-quality design was relatively small and most studies did not have adequate follow-up. Clinicians should inform their patients of the lack of high-quality evidence. An alkylating agent (cyclophosphamide or chlorambucil) combined with a corticosteroid regimen had short- and long-term benefits, but this was associated with a higher rate of adverse events. CNI (tacrolimus and cyclosporin) showed equivalency with alkylating agents however, the certainty of this evidence remains low. Novel immunosuppressive treatments with the biologic rituximab or use of adrenocorticotropic hormone require further investigation and validation in large and high-quality RCTs.

Prediction modeling-part 1: regression modeling.

Risk prediction models are statistical models that estimate the probability of individuals having a certain disease or clinical outcome based on a range of characteristics, and they can be used in clinical practice to stratify disease severity and characterize the risk of disease or disease prognosis. With technological advancements and the proliferation of clinical and biological data, prediction models are increasingly being developed in many areas of nephrology practice. This article guides the reader through the process of creating a prediction model, including (i) defining the clinical question and type of model, (ii) data collection and data cleaning, (iii) model building and variable selection, (iv) model performance, (v) model validation, (vi) model presentation and reporting, and (vii) impact evaluation. An example of developing a prediction model to predict mortality after intensive care unit admission for patients with end-stage kidney disease is also provided to illustrate the model development process.

Establishing core outcome domains in pediatric kidney disease: report of the Standardized Outcomes in Nephrology-Children and Adolescents (SONG-KIDS) consensus workshops.

Trials in children with chronic kidney disease do not consistently report outcomes that are critically important to patients and caregivers. This can diminish the relevance and reliability of evidence for decision making, limiting the implementation of results into practice and policy. As part of the Standardized Outcomes in Nephrology-Children and Adolescents (SONG-Kids) initiative, we convened 2 consensus workshops in San Diego, California (7 patients, 24 caregivers, 43 health professionals) and Melbourne, Australia (7 patients, 23 caregivers, 49 health professionals). This report summarizes the discussions on the identification and implementation of the SONG-Kids core outcomes set. Four themes were identified; survival and life participation are common high priority goals, capturing the whole child and family, ensuring broad relevance across the patient journey, and requiring feasible and valid measures. Stakeholders supported the inclusion of mortality, infection, life participation, and kidney function as the core outcomes domains for children with chronic kidney disease.

Overall and Site-Specific Cancer Mortality in Patients on Dialysis and after Kidney Transplant.

Background Patients with ESRD have a substantially increased cancer risk, but few studies have examined the patterns of cancer mortality along a patient's journey from dialysis to transplantation. METHODS: We identified all Australian patients on dialysis and patients with transplants from 1980 to 2014 from the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry. Using standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), we compared cancer mortality among patients on dialysis and patients with transplants versus the general population (overall and by age, sex, year, and site); we also performed a subgroup analysis excluding patients with preexisting cancers. RESULTS: We followed 52,936 patients on dialysis and 16,820 transplant recipients for 170,055 and 128,352 patient-years, respectively. There were 2739 cancer deaths among patients on dialysis and 923 cancer deaths among transplant recipients. Overall, cancer SMRs were 2.6 for patients on dialysis and 2.7 for transplant recipients. For patients on dialysis, SMRs were highest for multiple myeloma (30.5), testicular cancer (17.0), and kidney cancer (12.5); for transplant recipients, SMRs were highest for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (10.7), kidney cancer (7.8), and melanoma (5.8). Some 61.0% of patients on dialysis and 9.6% of transplant recipients who experienced cancer death had preexisting cancer. The SMRs for de novo cancer was 1.2 for patients on dialysis and 2.6 for transplant recipients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients on dialysis and transplant recipients experienced >2.5-fold increased risk of cancer death compared with the general population. This increased risk was largely driven by preexisting cancers in patients on dialysis and de novo cancers in patients with transplants.

Variations in Risk of Cancer and Death From Cancer According to Kidney Allograft Function, Graft Loss, and Return to Dialysis.

BACKGROUND: Cancer incidence and mortality may change with varying kidney allograft function and after graft loss. We aimed to quantify cancer incidence and mortality during periods with a functioning graft and after graft loss. METHODS: We included all adult Australians aged 20 and above who commenced kidney replacement therapy between 1982 and 2014 using data from Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry. We calculated the standardized incidence ratios and standardized mortality ratios (standardized against the Australian general population) for dialysis patients and transplant recipients during periods with a functioning graft and after graft loss. RESULTS: A total of 44 765 dialysis patients without transplants, 13 443 with first kidney transplants, 2951 after first graft loss, 1010 with second transplants, and 279 after second graft loss were followed for 274 660 patient-years. Cancer incidence and mortality (per 100 000 patient-years) were 1564 and 760 in dialysis patients, 1564 and 689 in recipients of first transplants, 1188 and 390 after first graft loss, 1525 and 693 after second transplants, and 1645 and 779 after second graft loss. Cancer standardized incidence ratios and standardized mortality ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 1.15 (1.11-1.20) and 1.29 (1.21-1.36) for dialysis patients, 2.03 (1.94-2.13) and 2.50 (2.33-2.69) for recipients following their first transplant, 1.55 (1.29-1.85) and 1.40 (1.00-1.90) after first graft loss, 2.18 (1.79-2.63) and 3.00 (2.23-3.96) for second transplants, 2.59 (1.56-4.04) and 3.82 (1.75-7.25) after second graft loss. CONCLUSIONS: In kidney transplant recipients, cancer incidence and mortality are highest during periods with a functioning graft and remained higher than in the general population even after graft loss.

Scope and Consistency of Cancer Outcomes Reported in Randomized Trials in Kidney Transplant Recipients.

Introduction: Cancer is an important outcome in kidney transplantation, but the scope and consistency of how cancer is defined and reported in trials involving kidney transplant recipients has not been evaluated. This study aimed to assess the range and variability of cancer outcomes in trials involving kidney transplant recipients. Methods: The ClinicalTrials.gov database was searched from February 2000 to July 2021 to identify all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in adult kidney transplant recipients, and which included cancer as a specified outcome. The definition of cancer, types of cancer (if any), timepoint(s) of measurement and method of aggregation were extracted for each cancer outcome. Results: Of the 819 trials in kidney transplantation, only 84 (10%) included 1 or more cancer outcomes. Of these, 72 of 84 (86%) trials included cancer as a secondary outcome and 12 of 84 (14%) considered cancer as a primary outcome. The most frequent description of cancer was "malignancy" (n = 44, 43%), without reference to diagnostic criteria, histology, grade, or stage. The 2 most common cancer types were posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder (PTLD) (n = 20, 20%) and nonmelanoma skin cancer (n = 10, 10%). Several methods of aggregation were identified, including incidence or rate (n = 47, 46%), frequency or proportion (n = 30, 29%), and time to event (n = 5, 5%). Approximately half the cancer outcomes were measured at a single time point (n = 44, 52%). Conclusion: Cancer is an infrequently reported outcome and is inconsistently defined in trials of kidney transplant recipients. Consistent reporting of cancer outcomes using standardized definitions would provide important information on the impact of cancer in patients after kidney transplantation.

Evolution of stickleback spines through independent cis-regulatory changes at HOXDB.

Understanding the mechanisms leading to new traits or additional features in organisms is a fundamental goal of evolutionary biology. We show that HOXDB regulatory changes have been used repeatedly in different fish genera to alter the length and number of the prominent dorsal spines used to classify stickleback species. In Gasterosteus aculeatus (typically 'three-spine sticklebacks'), a variant HOXDB allele is genetically linked to shortening an existing spine and adding an additional spine. In Apeltes quadracus (typically 'four-spine sticklebacks'), a variant HOXDB allele is associated with lengthening a spine and adding an additional spine in natural populations. The variant alleles alter the same non-coding enhancer region in the HOXDB locus but do so by diverse mechanisms, including single-nucleotide polymorphisms, deletions and transposable element insertions. The independent regulatory changes are linked to anterior expansion or contraction of HOXDB expression. We propose that associated changes in spine lengths and numbers are partial identity transformations in a repeating skeletal series that forms major defensive structures in fish. Our findings support the long-standing hypothesis that natural Hox gene variation underlies key patterning changes in wild populations and illustrate how different mutational mechanisms affecting the same region may produce opposite gene expression changes with similar phenotypic outcomes.

Problems with evidence assessment in COVID-19 health policy impact evaluation: a systematic review of study design and evidence strength.

INTRODUCTION: Assessing the impact of COVID-19 policy is critical for informing future policies. However, there are concerns about the overall strength of COVID-19 impact evaluation studies given the circumstances for evaluation and concerns about the publication environment. METHODS: We included studies that were primarily designed to estimate the quantitative impact of one or more implemented COVID-19 policies on direct SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 outcomes. After searching PubMed for peer-reviewed articles published on 26 November 2020 or earlier and screening, all studies were reviewed by three reviewers first independently and then to consensus. The review tool was based on previously developed and released review guidance for COVID-19 policy impact evaluation. RESULTS: After 102 articles were identified as potentially meeting inclusion criteria, we identified 36 published articles that evaluated the quantitative impact of COVID-19 policies on direct COVID-19 outcomes. Nine studies were set aside because the study design was considered inappropriate for COVID-19 policy impact evaluation (n=8 pre/post; n=1 cross-sectional), and 27 articles were given a full consensus assessment. 20/27 met criteria for graphical display of data, 5/27 for functional form, 19/27 for timing between policy implementation and impact, and only 3/27 for concurrent changes to the outcomes. Only 4/27 were rated as overall appropriate. Including the 9 studies set aside, reviewers found that only four of the 36 identified published and peer-reviewed health policy impact evaluation studies passed a set of key design checks for identifying the causal impact of policies on COVID-19 outcomes. DISCUSSION: The reviewed literature directly evaluating the impact of COVID-19 policies largely failed to meet key design criteria for inference of sufficient rigour to be actionable by policy-makers. More reliable evidence review is needed to both identify and produce policy-actionable evidence, alongside the recognition that actionable evidence is often unlikely to be feasible.

Factors Influencing Long-Term Patient and Allograft Outcomes in Elderly Kidney Transplant Recipients.

INTRODUCTION: Individuals aged ≥65 years are increasingly prevalent on the waitlist for kidney transplantation, yet evidence on recipient and donor factors that define optimal outcomes in elderly patients after kidney transplantation is scarce. METHODS: We used multivariable Cox regression modeling to determine the factors associated with all-cause death, death with a functioning graft, and overall and death-censored graft survival, using data from the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant (ANZDATA) registry. RESULTS: A total of 802 kidney transplant recipients aged ≥65 years underwent their first transplantation between June 2006 and December 2016. Median age at transplantation was 68 years (interquartile range = 66-69 years). The 1-year and 5-year overall patient and graft survivals (95% confidence interval [CI]) were 95.1 (93.5-96.7) and 79.0 (75.1-82.9), and 92.9 (91.1-94.7) and 75.4 (71.3-79.5), respectively. Factors associated with higher risks of all-cause death included prevalent coronary artery disease (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] = 1.47 [1.03-2.11]), cerebrovascular disease (1.99 [1.26-3.16]), increasing graft ischemic time (1.06 per hour [1.03-1.09]), donor age (1.02 per year [1.01-1.03]), delayed graft function (1.64 [1.13-2.39]), and peritoneal dialysis pretransplantation (1.71 [1.17-2.51]). CONCLUSION: Prevalent vascular disease and peritoneal dialysis as a pretransplantation dialysis modality are risk factors associated with poorer outcomes in transplant recipients aged ≥65 years. Careful selection and evaluation of potential candidates may improve graft and patient outcomes in older patients.

Problems with Evidence Assessment in COVID-19 Health Policy Impact Evaluation: A systematic review of study design and evidence strength.

INTRODUCTION: Assessing the impact of COVID-19 policy is critical for informing future policies. However, there are concerns about the overall strength of COVID-19 impact evaluation studies given the circumstances for evaluation and concerns about the publication environment. This study systematically reviewed the strength of evidence in the published COVID-19 policy impact evaluation literature. METHODS: We included studies that were primarily designed to estimate the quantitative impact of one or more implemented COVID-19 policies on direct SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 outcomes. After searching PubMed for peer-reviewed articles published on November 26, 2020 or earlier and screening, all studies were reviewed by three reviewers first independently and then to consensus. The review tool was based on previously developed and released review guidance for COVID-19 policy impact evaluation, assessing what impact evaluation method was used, graphical display of outcomes data, functional form for the outcomes, timing between policy and impact, concurrent changes to the outcomes, and an overall rating. RESULTS: After 102 articles were identified as potentially meeting inclusion criteria, we identified 36 published articles that evaluated the quantitative impact of COVID-19 policies on direct COVID-19 outcomes. The majority (n=23/36) of studies in our sample examined the impact of stay-at-home requirements. Nine studies were set aside because the study design was considered inappropriate for COVID-19 policy impact evaluation (n=8 pre/post; n=1 cross-section), and 27 articles were given a full consensus assessment. 20/27 met criteria for graphical display of data, 5/27 for functional form, 19/27 for timing between policy implementation and impact, and only 3/27 for concurrent changes to the outcomes. Only 1/27 studies passed all of the above checks, and 4/27 were rated as overall appropriate. Including the 9 studies set aside, reviewers found that only four of the 36 identified published and peer-reviewed health policy impact evaluation studies passed a set of key design checks for identifying the causal impact of policies on COVID-19 outcomes. DISCUSSION: The reviewed literature directly evaluating the impact of COVID-19 policies largely failed to meet key design criteria for inference of sufficient rigor to be actionable by policymakers. This was largely driven by the circumstances under which policies were passed making it difficult to attribute changes in COVID-19 outcomes to particular policies. More reliable evidence review is needed to both identify and produce policy-actionable evidence, alongside the recognition that actionable evidence is often unlikely to be feasible.

Characteristics and outcomes of patients discharged home from the Emergency Department following trauma team activation.

OBJECTIVE: Past research on trauma teams has largely focused on the outcomes of severely injured patients. Few studies have looked at patients who have activated the trauma team but are discharged home directly from the Emergency Department. The aim of this study was to examine the characteristics and outcomes of these patients following discharge. METHODS: All adult Emergency Department discharged trauma patients who were contactable by telephone 7-14 days post-discharge and spoke English were eligible for the study. A 10-min questionnaire was conducted covering their perceptions of Emergency Department care, return to activities, discharge and follow-up care, missed injuries and pain management. Data were also collected on their age, sex, injuries and length of stay in the Emergency Department. RESULTS: Over the 169-day study period, 158 trauma patients were discharged from Liverpool hospital, which formed 30.1% of all patients treated by the trauma team. Of these, 106 patients were contactable and 100 completed the follow-up questionnaire. They suffered mainly minor injuries but stayed a median 341 min in the Department. Most patients (87%) reported that their health had impacted on their daily activities and about half of all full-time workers remained off work for 1 week or more. A small number of patients had missed fractures or other serious injuries. Two-third of patients visited a medical practitioner after discharge and 8 required further specialist and/or in-patient care. CONCLUSION: Most trauma patients discharged from the Emergency Department continue to suffer significant morbidity after their departure from hospital and require further medical care. A small number of patients also had significant missed injuries. This suggests that more comprehensive discharge and follow-up care for these patients is warranted.