Asthenosphere rheology inferred from observations of the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake.

The concept of a weak asthenospheric layer underlying Earth's mobile tectonic plates is fundamental to our understanding of mantle convection and plate tectonics. However, little is known about the mechanical properties of the asthenosphere (the part of the upper mantle below the lithosphere) underlying the oceanic crust, which covers about 60 per cent of Earth's surface. Great earthquakes cause large coseismic crustal deformation in areas hundreds of kilometres away from and below the rupture area. Subsequent relaxation of the earthquake-induced stresses in the viscoelastic upper mantle leads to prolonged postseismic crustal deformation that may last several decades and can be recorded with geodetic methods. The observed postseismic deformation helps us to understand the rheological properties of the upper mantle, but so far such measurements have been limited to continental-plate boundary zones. Here we consider the postseismic deformation of the very large (moment magnitude 8.6) 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake to provide by far the most direct constraint on the structure of oceanic mantle rheology. In the first three years after the Indian Ocean earthquake, 37 continuous Global Navigation Satellite Systems stations in the region underwent horizontal northeastward displacements of up to 17 centimetres in a direction similar to that of the coseismic offsets. However, a few stations close to the rupture area that had experienced subsidence of up to about 4 centimetres during the earthquake rose by nearly 7 centimetres after the earthquake. Our three-dimensional viscoelastic finite-element models of the post-earthquake deformation show that a thin (30-200 kilometres), low-viscosity (having a steady-state Maxwell viscosity of (0.5-10) × 1018 pascal seconds) asthenospheric layer beneath the elastic oceanic lithosphere is required to produce the observed postseismic uplift.

What's down there? The structures, materials and environment of deep-seated slow slip and tremor.

Deep-seated slow slip and tremor (SST), including slow slip events, episodic tremor and slip, and low-frequency earthquakes, occur downdip of the seismogenic zone of numerous subduction megathrusts and plate boundary strike-slip faults. These events represent a fascinating and perplexing mode of fault failure that has greatly broadened our view of earthquake dynamics. In this contribution, we review constraints on SST deformation processes from both geophysical observations of active subduction zones and geological observations of exhumed field analogues. We first provide an overview of what has been learned about the environment, kinematics and dynamics of SST from geodetic and seismologic data. We then describe the materials, deformation mechanisms, and metamorphic and fluid pressure conditions that characterize exhumed rocks from SST source depths. Both the geophysical and geological records strongly suggest the importance of a fluid-rich and high fluid pressure habitat for the SST source region. Additionally, transient deformation features preserved in the rock record, involving combined frictional-viscous shear in regions of mixed lithology and near-lithostatic fluid pressures, may scale with the tremor component of SST. While several open questions remain, it is clear that improved constraints on the materials, environment, structure, and conditions of the plate interface from geophysical imaging and geologic observations will enhance model representations of the boundary conditions and geometry of the SST deformation process. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Understanding earthquakes using the geological record'.

Possible control of subduction zone slow-earthquake periodicity by silica enrichment.

Seismic and geodetic observations in subduction zone forearcs indicate that slow earthquakes, including episodic tremor and slip, recur at intervals of less than six months to more than two years. In Cascadia, slow slip is segmented along strike and tremor data show a gradation from large, infrequent slip episodes to small, frequent slip events with increasing depth of the plate interface. Observations and models of slow slip and tremor require the presence of near-lithostatic pore-fluid pressures in slow-earthquake source regions; however, direct evidence of factors controlling the variability in recurrence times is elusive. Here we compile seismic data from subduction zone forearcs exhibiting recurring slow earthquakes and show that the average ratio of compressional (P)-wave velocity to shear (S)-wave velocity (vP/vS) of the overlying forearc crust ranges between 1.6 and 2.0 and is linearly related to the average recurrence time of slow earthquakes. In northern Cascadia, forearc vP/vS values decrease with increasing depth of the plate interface and with decreasing tremor-episode recurrence intervals. Low vP/vS values require a large addition of quartz in a mostly mafic forearc environment. We propose that silica enrichment varying from 5 per cent to 15 per cent by volume from slab-derived fluids and upward mineralization in quartz veins can explain the range of observed vP/vS values as well as the downdip decrease in vP/vS. The solubility of silica depends on temperature, and deposition prevails near the base of the forearc crust. We further propose that the strong temperature dependence of healing and permeability reduction in silica-rich fault gouge via dissolution-precipitation creep can explain the reduction in tremor recurrence time with progressive silica enrichment. Lower gouge permeability at higher temperatures leads to faster fluid overpressure development and low effective fault-normal stress, and therefore shorter recurrence times. Our results also agree with numerical models of slip stabilization under fault zone dilatancy strengthening caused by decreasing fluid pressure as pore space increases. This implies that temperature-dependent silica deposition, permeability reduction and fluid overpressure development control dilatancy and slow-earthquake behaviour.

Uplift and seismicity driven by groundwater depletion in central California.

Groundwater use in California's San Joaquin Valley exceeds replenishment of the aquifer, leading to substantial diminution of this resource and rapid subsidence of the valley floor. The volume of groundwater lost over the past century and a half also represents a substantial reduction in mass and a large-scale unburdening of the lithosphere, with significant but unexplored potential impacts on crustal deformation and seismicity. Here we use vertical global positioning system measurements to show that a broad zone of rock uplift of up to 1-3 mm per year surrounds the southern San Joaquin Valley. The observed uplift matches well with predicted flexure from a simple elastic model of current rates of water-storage loss, most of which is caused by groundwater depletion. The height of the adjacent central Coast Ranges and the Sierra Nevada is strongly seasonal and peaks during the dry late summer and autumn, out of phase with uplift of the valley floor during wetter months. Our results suggest that long-term and late-summer flexural uplift of the Coast Ranges reduce the effective normal stress resolved on the San Andreas Fault. This process brings the fault closer to failure, thereby providing a viable mechanism for observed seasonality in microseismicity at Parkfield and potentially affecting long-term seismicity rates for fault systems adjacent to the valley. We also infer that the observed contemporary uplift of the southern Sierra Nevada previously attributed to tectonic or mantle-derived forces is partly a consequence of human-caused groundwater depletion.

The 11 April 2012 east Indian Ocean earthquake triggered large aftershocks worldwide.

Large earthquakes trigger very small earthquakes globally during passage of the seismic waves and during the following several hours to days, but so far remote aftershocks of moment magnitude M ≥ 5.5 have not been identified, with the lone exception of an M = 6.9 quake remotely triggered by the surface waves from an M = 6.6 quake 4,800 kilometres away. The 2012 east Indian Ocean earthquake that had a moment magnitude of 8.6 is the largest strike-slip event ever recorded. Here we show that the rate of occurrence of remote M ≥ 5.5 earthquakes (>1,500 kilometres from the epicentre) increased nearly fivefold for six days after the 2012 event, and extended in magnitude to M ≤ 7. These global aftershocks were located along the four lobes of Love-wave radiation; all struck where the dynamic shear strain is calculated to exceed 10(-7) for at least 100 seconds during dynamic-wave passage. The other M ≥ 8.5 mainshocks during the past decade are thrusts; after these events, the global rate of occurrence of remote M ≥ 5.5 events increased by about one-third the rate following the 2012 shock and lasted for only two days, a weaker but possibly real increase. We suggest that the unprecedented delayed triggering power of the 2012 earthquake may have arisen because of its strike-slip source geometry or because the event struck at a time of an unusually low global earthquake rate, perhaps increasing the number of nucleation sites that were very close to failure.

Tremor-tide correlations and near-lithostatic pore pressure on the deep San Andreas fault.

Since its initial discovery nearly a decade ago, non-volcanic tremor has provided information about a region of the Earth that was previously thought incapable of generating seismic radiation. A thorough explanation of the geologic process responsible for tremor generation has, however, yet to be determined. Owing to their location at the plate interface, temporal correlation with geodetically measured slow-slip events and dominant shear wave energy, tremor observations in southwest Japan have been interpreted as a superposition of many low-frequency earthquakes that represent slip on a fault surface. Fluids may also be fundamental to the failure process in subduction zone environments, as teleseismic and tidal modulation of tremor in Cascadia and Japan and high Poisson ratios in both source regions are indicative of pressurized pore fluids. Here we identify a robust correlation between extremely small, tidally induced shear stress parallel to the San Andreas fault and non-volcanic tremor activity near Parkfield, California. We suggest that this tremor represents shear failure on a critically stressed fault in the presence of near-lithostatic pore pressure. There are a number of similarities between tremor in subduction zone environments, such as Cascadia and Japan, and tremor on the deep San Andreas transform, suggesting that the results presented here may also be applicable in other tectonic settings.

Shallow fault-zone dilatancy recovery after the 2003 Bam earthquake in Iran.

Earthquakes radiate from slip on discrete faults, but also commonly involve distributed deformation within a broader fault zone, especially near the surface. Variations in rock strain during an earthquake are caused by heterogeneity in the elastic stress before the earthquake, by variable material properties and geometry of the fault zones, and by dynamic processes during the rupture. Stress changes due to the earthquake slip, both dynamic and static, have long been thought to cause dilatancy in the fault zone that recovers after the earthquake. Decreases in the velocity of seismic waves passing through the fault zone due to coseismic dilatancy have been observed followed by postseismic seismic velocity increases during healing. Dilatancy and its recovery have not previously been observed geodetically. Here we use interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar images to measure postseismic surface deformation after the 2003 Bam, Iran, earthquake and show reversal of coseismic dilatancy in the shallow fault zone that causes subsidence of the surface. This compaction of the fault zone is directly above the patch of greatest coseismic slip at depth. The dilatancy and compaction probably reflects distributed shear and damage to the material during the earthquake that heals afterwards. Coseismic and postseismic deformation spread through a fault zone volume may resolve the paradox of shallow slip deficits for some strike-slip fault ruptures.

Global subduction slow slip events and associated earthquakes.

Three decades of geodetic monitoring have established slow slip events (SSEs) as a common mode of fault slip, sometimes linked with earthquake swarms and in a few cases escalating to major seismic events. However, the connection between SSEs and earthquake hazard has been difficult to quantify and contextualize beyond regional studies. We aggregate a geodetic record of SSEs from subduction zones in the circum-Pacific region. In aggregate, earthquake rates increase up to threefold concurrent with and proximal to SSEs. The relative amplitude of this increase is correlated with the SSE size and, to a lesser extent, their depth and region. The subdued and coincident earthquake response to SSE stress transfer suggests a more limited role of static stress transfer and a very short relaxation timescale for the triggered seismicity. The observed range of behavior does not support a major connection between SSEs and earthquake hazard.

3D architecture and complex behavior along the simple central San Andreas fault.

The central San Andreas Fault (CSAF) exhibits a simple linear large-scale fault geometry, yet seismic and aseismic deformation features vary in a complex way along the fault. Here we investigate fault zone behaviors using geodetic observation, seismicity and microearthquake focal mechanisms. We employ an improved focal-mechanism characterization method using relative earthquake radiation patterns on 75,164 Ml ≥ 1 earthquakes along a 2-km-wide, 190-km-long segment of the CSAF, from 1984 to 2015. The data reveal the 3D fine-scale structure and interseismic kinematics of the CSAF. Our findings indicate that the first-order spatial variations in interseismic fault creep rate, creep direction, and the fault zone stress field can be explained by a simple fault coupling model. The inferred 3D mechanical properties of a mechanically weak and poorly coupled fault zone provide a unified understanding of the complex fine-scale kinematics, indicating distributed slip deficits facilitating small-to-moderate earthquakes, localized stress heterogeneities, and complex multi-scale ruptures along the fault. Through this detailed mapping, we aim to relate the fine-scale fault architecture to potential future faulting behavior along the CSAF.

A weak subducting slab at intermediate depths below northeast Japan.

Knowledge of the state of stress in subducting slabs is essential for understanding their mechanical behavior and the physical processes that generate earthquakes. Here, we develop a framework which uses a high-resolution focal mechanism catalog to determine the change in the position of the neutral plane before and after the M9 Tohoku-oki earthquake to determine that the deviatoric stress within the slab at intermediate depths must be very low (∼1 MPa). We show that by combining the static stress calculated from coseismic slip distributions with the stress orientations before and after the mainshock, we can determine the full deviatoric stress tensor within the subducting slab at intermediate depths. These results preclude earthquake source mechanisms that require large background driving stresses, favoring a mechanically weak subducting slab, thus providing quantitative constraints on the physical processes that generate intermediate-depth earthquakes.

Reliable earthquake precursors?

Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements suggest hours-long precursors to many large earthquakes.

Aseismic slip and recent ruptures of persistent asperities along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone.

The frictional properties and slip behaviors of subduction thrusts play a key role in seismic and tsunami hazard assessment, especially in weakly coupled "seismic gaps". Here, we rely on GPS observations in the Shumagin Gap of the Aleutian subduction zone to derive the slip distribution of the 2020 Mw 7.8 Simeonof Island, Alaska earthquake and of the subsequent afterslip during the first 87-day period. Our modeling results show that the mainshock ruptured at depths of ∼30-40 km beneath Simeonof Island. Kinematic and stress-driven models indicate that the afterslip occurred both updip and downdip of the mainshock rupture. Physically plausible locking models derived from interseismic GPS velocities suggest that the 2020 Simeonof and 2021 Mw 8.2 Chignik earthquakes ruptured persistent asperities on the subduction thrust. We infer that there are several additional persistent asperities at depths of 20-50 km west ∼157°W. However, it is still uncertain whether there are additional locked asperities at shallow depths because of the current lack of geodetic observations close to the trench.

Bridging earthquakes and mountain building in the Santa Cruz Mountains, CA.

Relative crustal motions along active faults generate earthquakes, and repeated earthquake cycles build mountain ranges over millions of years. However, the long-term summation of elastic, earthquake-related deformation cannot produce the deformation recorded within the rock record. Here, we provide an explanation for this discrepancy by showing that increases in strain facilitated by plastic deformation of Earth's crust during the earthquake cycle, in conjunction with isostatic deflection and erosion, transform relative fault motions that produce individual earthquakes to geologic deformations. We focus our study on the data-rich Santa Cruz Mountains, CA, USA and compare predicted and observed quantities for rock uplift, apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronology, topographic relief, 10Be-based erosion rates, and interseismic surface velocities. This approach reconciles these disparate records of mountain-building processes, allowing us to explicitly bridge decadal measures of deformation with that produced by millions of years of plate motion.

A revised position for the primary strand of the Pleistocene-Holocene San Andreas fault in southern California.

The San Andreas fault has the highest calculated time-dependent probability for large-magnitude earthquakes in southern California. However, where the fault is multistranded east of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, it has been uncertain which strand has the fastest slip rate and, therefore, which has the highest probability of a destructive earthquake. Reconstruction of offset Pleistocene-Holocene landforms dated using the uranium-thorium soil carbonate and beryllium-10 surface exposure techniques indicates slip rates of 24.1 ± 3 millimeter per year for the San Andreas fault, with 21.6 ± 2 and 2.5 ± 1 millimeters per year for the Mission Creek and Banning strands, respectively. These data establish the Mission Creek strand as the primary fault bounding the Pacific and North American plates at this latitude and imply that 6 to 9 meters of elastic strain has accumulated along the fault since the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake, highlighting the potential for large earthquakes along this strand.

Synchronized and asynchronous modulation of seismicity by hydrological loading: A case study in Taiwan.

Delineation of physical factors that contribute to earthquake triggering is a challenging issue in seismology. We analyze hydrological modulation of seismicity in Taiwan using groundwater level data and GNSS time series. In western Taiwan, the seismicity rate reaches peak levels in February to April and drops to its lowest values in July to September, exhibiting a direct correlation with annual water unloading. The elastic hydrological load cycle may be the primary driving mechanism for the observed synchronized modulation of earthquakes, as also evidenced by deep earthquakes in eastern Taiwan. However, shallow earthquakes in eastern Taiwan (<18 km) are anticorrelated with water unloading, which is not well explained by either hydrological loading, fluid transport, or pore pressure changes and suggests other time-dependent processes. The moderate correlation between stacked monthly trends of large historic earthquakes and present-day seismicity implies a modestly higher seismic hazard during the time of low annual hydrological loading.

Evidence of power-law flow in the Mojave desert mantle.

Studies of the Earth's response to large earthquakes can be viewed as large rock deformation experiments in which sudden stress changes induce viscous flow in the lower crust and upper mantle that lead to observable postseismic surface deformation. Laboratory experiments suggest that viscous flow of deforming hot lithospheric rocks is characterized by a power law in which strain rate is proportional to stress raised to a power, n (refs 2, 3). Most geodynamic models of flow in the lower crust and upper mantle, however, resort to newtonian (linear) stress-strain rate relations. Here we show that a power-law model of viscous flow in the mantle with n = 3.5 successfully explains the spatial and temporal evolution of transient surface deformation following the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes in southern California. A power-law rheology implies that viscosity varies spatially with stress causing localization of strain, and varies temporally as stress evolves, rendering newtonian models untenable. Our findings are consistent with laboratory-derived flow law parameters for hot and wet olivine--the most abundant mineral in the upper mantle--and support the contention that, at least beneath the Mojave desert, the upper mantle is weaker than the lower crust.

Four-dimensional surface motions of the Slumgullion landslide and quantification of hydrometeorological forcing.

Landslides modify the natural landscape and cause fatalities and property damage worldwide. Quantifying landslide dynamics is challenging due to the stochastic nature of the environment. With its large area of ~1 km2 and perennial motions at ~10-20 mm per day, the Slumgullion landslide in Colorado, USA, represents an ideal natural laboratory to better understand landslide behavior. Here, we use hybrid remote sensing data and methods to recover the four-dimensional surface motions during 2011-2018. We refine the boundaries of an area of ~0.35 km2 below the crest of the prehistoric landslide. We construct a mechanical framework to quantify the rheology, subsurface channel geometry, mass flow rate, and spatiotemporally dependent pore-water pressure feedback through a joint analysis of displacement and hydrometeorological measurements from ground, air and space. Our study demonstrates the importance of remotely characterizing often inaccessible, dangerous slopes to better understand landslides and other quasi-static mass fluxes in natural and industrial environments, which will ultimately help reduce associated hazards.

Slow slip events in the roots of the San Andreas fault.

Episodic tremor and accompanying slow slip are observed at the down-dip edge of subduction seismogenic zones. While tremors are the seismic signature of this phenomenon, they correspond to a small fraction of the moment released; thus, the associated fault slip can be quantified only by geodetic observations. On continental strike-slip faults, tremors have been observed in the roots of the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault. However, associated transient aseismic slip has never been detected. By making use of the timing of transient tremor activity and the dense Parkfield-area global positioning system network, we can detect deep slow slip events (SSEs) at 16-km depth on the Parkfield segment with an average moment equivalent to M w 4.90 ± 0.08. Characterization of transient SSEs below the Parkfield locked asperity, at the transition with the creeping section of the San Andreas fault, provides new constraints on the seismic cycle in this region.