REVIEW: Assessing North Atlantic right whale health: threats, and development of tools critical for conservation of the species.

Whaling has decimated North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis (NARW) since the 11th century and southern right whales E. australis (SRW) since the 19th century. Today, NARWs are Critically Endangered and decreasing, whereas SRWs are recovering. We review NARW health assessment literature, NARW Consortium databases, and efforts and limitations to monitor individual and species health, survival, and fecundity. Photographs are used to track individual movement and external signs of health such as evidence of vessel and entanglement trauma. Post-mortem examinations establish cause of death and determine organ pathology. Photogrammetry is used to assess growth rates and body condition. Samples of blow, skin, blubber, baleen and feces quantify hormones that provide information on stress, reproduction, and nutrition, identify microbiome changes, and assess evidence of infection. We also discuss models of the population consequences of multiple stressors, including the connection between human activities (e.g. entanglement) and health. Lethal and sublethal vessel and entanglement trauma have been identified as major threats to the species. There is a clear and immediate need for expanding trauma reduction measures. Beyond these major concerns, further study is needed to evaluate the impact of other stressors, such as pathogens, microbiome changes, and algal and industrial toxins, on NARW reproductive success and health. Current and new health assessment tools should be developed and used to monitor the effectiveness of management measures and will help determine whether they are sufficient for a substantive species recovery.

Model recommendations meet management reality: implementation and evaluation of a network-informed vaccination effort for endangered Hawaiian monk seals.

Where disease threatens endangered wildlife populations, substantial resources are required for management actions such as vaccination. While network models provide a promising tool for identifying key spreaders and prioritizing efforts to maximize efficiency, population-scale vaccination remains rare, providing few opportunities to evaluate performance of model-informed strategies under realistic scenarios. Because the endangered Hawaiian monk seal could be heavily impacted by disease threats such as morbillivirus, we implemented a prophylactic vaccination programme. We used contact networks to prioritize vaccinating animals with high contact rates. We used dynamic network models to simulate morbillivirus outbreaks under real and idealized vaccination scenarios. We then evaluated the efficacy of model recommendations in this real-world vaccination project. We found that deviating from the model recommendations decreased the efficiency; requiring 44% more vaccinations to achieve a given decrease in outbreak size. However, we gained protection more quickly by vaccinating available animals rather than waiting to encounter priority seals. This work demonstrates the value of network models, but also makes trade-offs clear. If vaccines were limited but time was ample, vaccinating only priority animals would maximize herd protection. However, where time is the limiting factor, vaccinating additional lower-priority animals could more quickly protect the population.

Evidence of localized resource depletion following a natural colonization event by a large marine predator.

For central place foragers, forming colonies can lead to extensive competition for prey around breeding areas and a zone of local prey depletion. As populations grow, this area of reduced prey can expand impacting foraging success and forcing animals to alter foraging behaviour. Here, we examine a population of marine predators, the northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus), which colonized a recently formed volcanic island, and assess changes in foraging behaviour associated with increasing population density. Specifically, we measured pup production and adult foraging behaviour over a 15-year period, during which the population increased 4-fold. Using measures of at-sea movements and dive behaviour, we found clear evidence that as the population expanded, animals were required to allot increasing effort to obtain resources. These changes in behaviour included longer duration foraging trips, farther distances travelled, a larger foraging range surrounding the island and deeper maximum dives. Our results suggest that as the northern fur seal population increased, local prey resources were depleted as a result of increased intraspecific competition. In addition, the recent slowing of population growth indicates that this population may be approaching carrying capacity just 31 years after a natural colonization event. Our study offers insight into the dynamics of population growth and impacts of increasing population density on a large marine predator. Such data could be vital for understanding future population fluctuations that occur in response to the dynamic environment, as natural and anthropogenic factors continue to modify marine habitats.

Range-wide genetic connectivity of the Hawaiian monk seal and implications for translocation.

The Hawaiian monk seal (Monachus schauinslandi) is one of the most critically endangered marine mammals. Less than 1200 individuals remain, and the species is declining at a rate of approximately 4% per year as a result of juvenile starvation, shark predation, and entanglement in marine debris. Some of these problems may be alleviated by translocation; however, if island breeding aggregates are effectively isolated subpopulations, moving individuals may disrupt local adaptations. In these circumstances, managers must balance the pragmatic need of increasing survival with theoretical concerns about genetic viability. To assess range-wide population structure of the Hawaiian monk seal, we examined an unprecedented, near-complete genetic inventory of the species (n =1897 seals, sampled over 14 years) at 18 microsatellite loci. Genetic variation was not spatially partitioned ((w) =-0.03, p = 1.0), and a Bayesian clustering method provided evidence of one panmictic population (K =1). Pairwise F(ST) comparisons (among 7 island aggregates over 14 annual cohorts) did not reveal temporally stable, spatial reproductive isolation. Our results coupled with long-term tag-resight data confirm seal movement and gene flow throughout the Hawaiian Archipelago. Thus, human-mediated translocation of seals among locations is not likely to result in genetic incompatibilities.

Extremely low genetic diversity in the endangered Hawaiian monk seal (Monachus schauinslandi).

Hunted to near extinction in the late 19th century, the endangered and endemic Hawaiian monk seal (Monachus schauinslandi) exhibits low variation at all molecular markers tested to date. Here we confirm extreme paucity of genetic diversity, finding polymorphisms at only 8 of 154 microsatellite loci tested (143 novel species-specific loci, 10 loci from Antarctic seals, and 1 previously characterized locus). This screening revealed unprecedentedly low levels of allelic diversity and heterozygosity (A = 1.1, H(e) = 0.026). Subsequent analyses of 2409 Hawaiian monk seals at the 8 polymorphic loci provide evidence for a bottleneck (P = 0.002), but simulations indicate low genetic diversity (H(e) < 0.09) prior to recorded human influence. There is little indication of contemporary inbreeding (F(IS) = 0.018) or population structure (K = 1 population). Minimal genetic variation did not prevent partial recovery by the late 1950s and may not be driving the current population decline to approximately 1200 seals. Nonetheless, genotyping nearly every individual living during the past 25 years sets a new benchmark for low genetic diversity in an endangered species.

Evaluating exposure of northern fur seals, Callorhinus ursinus, to microplastic pollution through fecal analysis.

Environmental microplastics are widely documented in marine life and bioaccumulation may present risks to marine predators. Investigations of microplastics in marine mammals are increasing, though none have examined animals routinely consumed by humans. Here, we investigate microplastic exposure in the northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus), a species consumed by humans, using fecal material. We examined 44 feces (scat) at sites encompassing the seals' eastern Pacific range. Multiple contamination control measures were implemented, including field and laboratory controls. Fragments were the most common microplastic recovered, in 55% (24/44) of scat and no controls (range 1 to 86 fragments/scat, mean 16.6, sd 19.1). Microplastic fibers were recovered from 41% of scats (18/44), though some controls contained fibers confounding fiber results. Fecal analysis documented northern fur seal exposure to microplastics throughout their eastern Pacific range.

Temporal and spatial variation in age-specific survival rates of a long-lived mammal, the Hawaiian monk seal.

Estimates of variability in pinniped survival rates are generally based on observations at single sites, so it is not certain whether observed rates represent the whole population. Here, we provide a comprehensive analysis of spatio-temporal variation in age-specific survival rates for endangered Hawaiian monk seals (Monachus schauinslandi) based on capture-recapture analyses of more than 85% of the pups weaned in this population over the last two decades. Uniquely, these data have been collected from six subpopulations, encompassing all major breeding sites across its 1800 km long core range. Analyses of individual subpopulations revealed similar patterns in age-specific survival, characterized by the relatively low survival rates from weaning to 2 years of age, intermediate rates to 4 years of age, and then by relatively high 'mature' survival rates until 17 years of age, after which a senescent decline was observed. Juvenile, subadult and adult survival rates all varied significantly over time. Trends in survival among subpopulations were coherent with their relative geographical positions, suggesting regional structuring and connectedness within the archipelago. Survival rates for different age classes tended to be positively correlated, suggesting that similar factors may influence the survival for seals of all ages.

MODELING A MORBILLIVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HAWAIIAN MONK SEALS (NEOMONACHUS SCHAUINSLANDI) TO AID IN THE DESIGN OF MITIGATION PROGRAMS.

We developed a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model to simulate a range of plausible morbillivirus outbreak scenarios in a randomly mixing population of 170 endangered Hawaiian monk seals (Neomonachus schauinslandi). We then modeled realistic vaccination and quarantine measures to determine the potential efficacy of such mitigation efforts. Morbillivirus outbreaks represent substantial risk to monk seals-91% of simulated baseline outbreaks grew (R0>1), and in one-third of the scenarios all, or nearly all, individuals were infected. Simulated vaccination efforts in response to an outbreak were not effective in substantially reducing infections, largely because of the prolonged interval between vaccination and immunity. Prophylactic vaccination, in contrast, could be an effective tool for preventing outbreaks. Herd immunity is practically achievable because of the small sizes of monk seal populations and the animals' accessibility on shore. Adding realistic spatial structure to the model, as informed by movement of seals tracked in the main Hawaiian Islands with the use of telemetry, greatly reduced the simulated impact of outbreaks (≤10 seals were infected in 62% of spatially structured simulations). Although response vaccination remained relatively ineffective, spatial segregation allowed herd immunity to be achieved through prophylactic vaccination with less effort. In a randomly mixing population of 170 seals, 86% would need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity in 95% of simulated outbreaks, compared to only approximately 60% in three spatially segregated subgroups with the same combined abundance. Simulations indicate that quarantining a modest number (up to 20) of ill seals has the potential to extinguish even fast-growing outbreaks rapidly. The efficacy of quarantine, however, is highly dependent upon rapid detection and response. We conclude that prophylactic vaccination combined with a quarantine program supported by vigilant surveillance and rapid, reliable diagnosis could greatly mitigate the threat of a morbillivirus outbreak in Hawaiian monk seals.

ESTIMATING CONTACT RATES OF HAWAIIAN MONK SEALS (NEOMONACHUS SCHAUINSLANDI) USING SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS.

Understanding disease transmission dynamics, which are in part mediated by rates and patterns of social contact, is fundamental to predicting the likelihood, rate of spread, impacts, and mitigation of disease outbreaks in wildlife populations. Contact rates, which are important parameters required for epidemiologic models, are difficult to estimate. The endangered Hawaiian monk seal (Neomonachus schauinslandi) may be particularly vulnerable to morbillivirus outbreaks, due to its low abundance, lack of genetic diversity, and history of isolation from mammalian diseases. Morbillivirus epizootics have had devastating effects on other seal populations. We constructed social networks based on visual observations of individually identifiable monk seals associating onshore to estimate contact rates, assuming random mixing, and also to investigate contact patterns of different age and sex classes. Contact rates estimated from two island populations in 4 yr were remarkably similar, indicating any two individuals have about a one in 1,000 chance of making contact on any given day. Further, contact patterns within and among age and sex classes were statistically different from random. The methods we used could be broadly applied to empirically derive contact rates using association data. These rates are critical for epidemiologic modelling to simulate wildlife disease outbreaks and to inform science-based prevention and mitigation programs.

Phocine distemper virus: current knowledge and future directions.

Phocine distemper virus (PDV) was first recognized in 1988 following a massive epidemic in harbor and grey seals in north-western Europe. Since then, the epidemiology of infection in North Atlantic and Arctic pinnipeds has been investigated. In the western North Atlantic endemic infection in harp and grey seals predates the European epidemic, with relatively small, localized mortality events occurring primarily in harbor seals. By contrast, PDV seems not to have become established in European harbor seals following the 1988 epidemic and a second event of similar magnitude and extent occurred in 2002. PDV is a distinct species within the Morbillivirus genus with minor sequence variation between outbreaks over time. There is now mounting evidence of PDV-like viruses in the North Pacific/Western Arctic with serological and molecular evidence of infection in pinnipeds and sea otters. However, despite the absence of associated mortality in the region, there is concern that the virus may infect the large Pacific harbor seal and northern elephant seal populations or the endangered Hawaiian monk seals. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on PDV with particular focus on developments in diagnostics, pathogenesis, immune response, vaccine development, phylogenetics and modeling over the past 20 years.