Estimating SARS-CoV-2 variant fitness and the impact of interventions in England using statistical and geo-spatial agent-based models.

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been extended by the evolution of more transmissible viral variants. In autumn 2020, the B.1.177 lineage became the dominant variant in England, before being replaced by the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) lineage in late 2020, with the sweep occurring at different times in each region. This period coincided with a large number of non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. lockdowns) to control the epidemic, making it difficult to estimate the relative transmissibility of variants. In this paper, we model the spatial spread of these variants in England using a meta-population agent-based model which correctly characterizes the regional variation in cases and distribution of variants. As a test of robustness, we additionally estimated the relative transmissibility of multiple variants using a statistical model based on the renewal equation, which simultaneously estimates the effective reproduction number R. Relative to earlier variants, the transmissibility of B.1.177 is estimated to have increased by 1.14 (1.12-1.16) and that of Alpha by 1.71 (1.65-1.77). The vaccination programme starting in December 2020 is also modelled. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that the vaccination programme was essential for reopening in March 2021, and that if the January lockdown had started one month earlier, up to 30 k (24 k-38 k) deaths could have been prevented. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

Exome-wide evidence of compound heterozygous effects across common phenotypes in the UK Biobank.

The phenotypic impact of compound heterozygous (CH) variation has not been investigated at the population scale. We phased rare variants (MAF ∼0.001%) in the UK Biobank (UKBB) exome-sequencing data to characterize recessive effects in 175,587 individuals across 311 common diseases. A total of 6.5% of individuals carry putatively damaging CH variants, 90% of which are only identifiable upon phasing rare variants (MAF < 0.38%). We identify six recessive gene-trait associations (p < 1.68 × 10-7) after accounting for relatedness, polygenicity, nearby common variants, and rare variant burden. Of these, just one is discovered when considering homozygosity alone. Using longitudinal health records, we additionally identify and replicate a novel association between bi-allelic variation in ATP2C2 and an earlier age at onset of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (p < 3.58 × 10-8). Genetic phase contributes to disease risk for gene-trait pairs: ATP2C2-COPD (p = 0.000238), FLG-asthma (p = 0.00205), and USH2A-visual impairment (p = 0.0084). We demonstrate the power of phasing large-scale genetic cohorts to discover phenome-wide consequences of compound heterozygosity.

Genome-wide analyses identify 21 infertility loci and over 400 reproductive hormone loci across the allele frequency spectrum.

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) may help inform treatments for infertility, whose causes remain unknown in many cases. Here we present GWAS meta-analyses across six cohorts for male and female infertility in up to 41,200 cases and 687,005 controls. We identified 21 genetic risk loci for infertility (P≤5E-08), of which 12 have not been reported for any reproductive condition. We found positive genetic correlations between endometriosis and all-cause female infertility (rg=0.585, P=8.98E-14), and between polycystic ovary syndrome and anovulatory infertility (rg=0.403, P=2.16E-03). The evolutionary persistence of female infertility-risk alleles in EBAG9 may be explained by recent directional selection. We additionally identified up to 269 genetic loci associated with follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinising hormone, oestradiol, and testosterone through sex-specific GWAS meta-analyses (N=6,095-246,862). While hormone-associated variants near FSHB and ARL14EP colocalised with signals for anovulatory infertility, we found no rg between female infertility and reproductive hormones (P>0.05). Exome sequencing analyses in the UK Biobank (N=197,340) revealed that women carrying testosterone-lowering rare variants in GPC2 were at higher risk of infertility (OR=2.63, P=1.25E-03). Taken together, our results suggest that while individual genes associated with hormone regulation may be relevant for fertility, there is limited genetic evidence for correlation between reproductive hormones and infertility at the population level. We provide the first comprehensive view of the genetic architecture of infertility across multiple diagnostic criteria in men and women, and characterise its relationship to other health conditions.

Exome-wide evidence of compound heterozygous effects across common phenotypes in the UK Biobank.

Exome-sequencing association studies have successfully linked rare protein-coding variation to risk of thousands of diseases. However, the relationship between rare deleterious compound heterozygous (CH) variation and their phenotypic impact has not been fully investigated. Here, we leverage advances in statistical phasing to accurately phase rare variants (MAF ~ 0.001%) in exome sequencing data from 175,587 UK Biobank (UKBB) participants, which we then systematically annotate to identify putatively deleterious CH coding variation. We show that 6.5% of individuals carry such damaging variants in the CH state, with 90% of variants occurring at MAF < 0.34%. Using a logistic mixed model framework, systematically accounting for relatedness, polygenic risk, nearby common variants, and rare variant burden, we investigate recessive effects in common complex diseases. We find six exome-wide significant (P<1.68×10-7) and 17 nominally significant (P<5.25×10-5) gene-trait associations. Among these, only four would have been identified without accounting for CH variation in the gene. We further incorporate age-at-diagnosis information from primary care electronic health records, to show that genetic phase influences lifetime risk of disease across 20 gene-trait combinations (FDR < 5%). Using a permutation approach, we find evidence for genetic phase contributing to disease susceptibility for a collection of gene-trait pairs, including FLG-asthma (P=0.00205) and USH2A-visual impairment (P=0.0084). Taken together, we demonstrate the utility of phasing large-scale genetic sequencing cohorts for robust identification of the phenome-wide consequences of compound heterozygosity.

Patterns of item nonresponse behaviour to survey questionnaires are systematic and associated with genetic loci.

Response to survey questionnaires is vital for social and behavioural research, and most analyses assume full and accurate response by participants. However, nonresponse is common and impedes proper interpretation and generalizability of results. We examined item nonresponse behaviour across 109 questionnaire items in the UK Biobank (N = 360,628). Phenotypic factor scores for two participant-selected nonresponse answers, 'Prefer not to answer' (PNA) and 'I don't know' (IDK), each predicted participant nonresponse in follow-up surveys (incremental pseudo-R2 = 0.056), even when controlling for education and self-reported health (incremental pseudo-R2 = 0.046). After performing genome-wide association studies of our factors, PNA and IDK were highly genetically correlated with one another (rg = 0.73 (s.e. = 0.03)) and with education (rg,PNA = -0.51 (s.e. = 0.03); rg,IDK = -0.38 (s.e. = 0.02)), health (rg,PNA = 0.51 (s.e. = 0.03); rg,IDK = 0.49 (s.e. = 0.02)) and income (rg,PNA = -0.57 (s.e. = 0.04); rg,IDK = -0.46 (s.e. = 0.02)), with additional unique genetic associations observed for both PNA and IDK (P < 5 × 10-8). We discuss how these associations may bias studies of traits correlated with item nonresponse and demonstrate how this bias may substantially affect genome-wide association studies. While the UK Biobank data are deidentified, we further protected participant privacy by avoiding exploring non-response behaviour to single questions, assuring that no information can be used to associate results with any particular respondents.

On the genes, genealogies, and geographies of Quebec.

Population genetic models only provide coarse representations of real-world ancestry. We used a pedigree compiled from 4 million parish records and genotype data from 2276 French and 20,451 French Canadian individuals to finely model and trace French Canadian ancestry through space and time. The loss of ancestral French population structure and the appearance of spatial and regional structure highlights a wide range of population expansion models. Geographic features shaped migrations, and we find enrichments for migration, genetic, and genealogical relatedness patterns within river networks across regions of Quebec. Finally, we provide a freely accessible simulated whole-genome sequence dataset with spatiotemporal metadata for 1,426,749 individuals reflecting intricate French Canadian population structure. Such realistic population-scale simulations provide opportunities to investigate population genetics at an unprecedented resolution.

Analysis of genetic dominance in the UK Biobank.

Classical statistical genetics theory defines dominance as any deviation from a purely additive, or dosage, effect of a genotype on a trait, which is known as the dominance deviation. Dominance is well documented in plant and animal breeding. Outside of rare monogenic traits, however, evidence in humans is limited. We systematically examined common genetic variation across 1060 traits in a large population cohort (UK Biobank, N = 361,194 samples analyzed) for evidence of dominance effects. We then developed a computationally efficient method to rapidly assess the aggregate contribution of dominance deviations to heritability. Lastly, observing that dominance associations are inherently less correlated between sites at a genomic locus than their additive counterparts, we explored whether they may be leveraged to identify causal variants more confidently.

Statistical and functional convergence of common and rare genetic influences on autism at chromosome 16p.

The canonical paradigm for converting genetic association to mechanism involves iteratively mapping individual associations to the proximal genes through which they act. In contrast, in the present study we demonstrate the feasibility of extracting biological insights from a very large region of the genome and leverage this strategy to study the genetic influences on autism. Using a new statistical approach, we identified the 33-Mb p-arm of chromosome 16 (16p) as harboring the greatest excess of autism's common polygenic influences. The region also includes the mechanistically cryptic and autism-associated 16p11.2 copy number variant. Analysis of RNA-sequencing data revealed that both the common polygenic influences within 16p and the 16p11.2 deletion were associated with decreased average gene expression across 16p. The transcriptional effects of the rare deletion and diffuse common variation were correlated at the level of individual genes and analysis of Hi-C data revealed patterns of chromatin contact that may explain this transcriptional convergence. These results reflect a new approach for extracting biological insight from genetic association data and suggest convergence of common and rare genetic influences on autism at 16p.

The female protective effect against autism spectrum disorder.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is diagnosed three to four times more frequently in males than in females. Genetic studies of rare variants support a female protective effect (FPE) against ASD. However, sex differences in common inherited genetic risk for ASD are less studied, particularly within families. Leveraging the Danish iPSYCH resource, we found siblings of female ASD cases (n = 1,707) had higher rates of ASD than siblings of male ASD cases (n = 6,270; p < 1.0 × 10-10). In the Simons Simplex and SPARK collections, mothers of ASD cases (n = 7,436) carried more polygenic risk for ASD than fathers of ASD cases (n = 5,926; 0.08 polygenic risk score [PRS] SD; p = 7.0 × 10-7). Further, male unaffected siblings under-inherited polygenic risk (n = 1,519; p = 0.03). Using both epidemiologic and genetic approaches, our findings strongly support an FPE against ASD's common inherited influences.

Genetic analyses identify widespread sex-differential participation bias.

Genetic association results are often interpreted with the assumption that study participation does not affect downstream analyses. Understanding the genetic basis of participation bias is challenging since it requires the genotypes of unseen individuals. Here we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate comparative biases by performing a genome-wide association study contrasting one subgroup versus another. For example, we showed that sex exhibits artifactual autosomal heritability in the presence of sex-differential participation bias. By performing a genome-wide association study of sex in approximately 3.3 million males and females, we identified over 158 autosomal loci spuriously associated with sex and highlighted complex traits underpinning differences in study participation between the sexes. For example, the body mass index-increasing allele at FTO was observed at higher frequency in males compared to females (odds ratio = 1.02, P = 4.4 × 10-36). Finally, we demonstrated how these biases can potentially lead to incorrect inferences in downstream analyses and propose a conceptual framework for addressing such biases. Our findings highlight a new challenge that genetic studies may face as sample sizes continue to grow.