Remission and low disease activity are associated with lower healthcare costs: results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to determine the independent impact of definitions of remission/low disease activity (LDA) on direct/indirect costs (DCs, ICs) in a multicentre inception cohort. METHODS: Patients from 31 centres in 10 countries were enrolled within 15 months of diagnosis and assessed annually. Five mutually exclusive disease activity states (DAS) were defined as (1) remission off-treatment: clinical (c) SLEDAI-2K=0, without prednisone/immunosuppressants; (2) remission on-treatment: cSLEDAI-2K=0, prednisone ≤5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants; (3) LDA-Toronto Cohort (TC): cSLEDAI-2K≤2, without prednisone/immunosuppressants; (4) modified lupus LDA state (mLLDAS): SLEDAI-2K≤4, no activity in major organs/systems, no new activity, prednisone ≤7.5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants and (5) active: all remaining assessments.At each assessment, patients were stratified into the most stringent DAS fulfilled and the proportion of time in a DAS since cohort entry was determined. Annual DCs/ICs (2021 Canadian dollars) were based on healthcare use and lost workforce/non-workforce productivity over the preceding year.The association between the proportion of time in a DAS and annual DC/IC was examined through multivariable random-effects linear regressions. RESULTS: 1692 patients were followed a mean of 9.7 years; 49.0% of assessments were active. Remission/LDA (per 25% increase in time in a remission/LDA state vs active) were associated with lower annual DC/IC: remission off-treatment (DC -$C1372; IC -$C2507), remission on-treatment (DC -$C973; IC -$C2604,) LDA-TC (DC -$C1158) and mLLDAS (DC -$C1040). There were no cost differences between remission/LDA states. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that systemic lupus erythematosus patients who achieve remission, both off and on-therapy, and reductions in disease activity incur lower costs than those experiencing persistent disease activity.

Trimethoprim sulfamethoxazole prophylaxis and serious infections in granulomatosis with polyangiitis treated with rituximab.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of trimethoprim sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) prophylaxis with serious infections in rituximab-treated patients with granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included adults with GPA (2011-2020) within the United States Merative™ Marketscan® Research Databases with ≥6 months enrolment prior to first (index) rituximab treatment. We defined TMP-SMX prophylaxis as a ≥28-day prescription dispensed after or overlapping the index date. Serious infection was a hospital primary diagnosis for infection (excluding viral or mycobacterial codes). Secondary outcomes were outpatient infection, PJP, and adverse events potentially attributable to TMP-SMX. Cox proportional hazards regression assessed the association of time-varying TMP-SMX with outcomes of interest, adjusting for potential confounders. Individuals were followed until the outcome of interest, end of database enrolment, or Dec 31, 2020. RESULTS: Among 919 rituximab-treated individuals (53% female), mean age was 52.1 years (SD 16) and 281 (31%) were dispensed TMP-SMX within 30 days of index date. Over a median of 496 (IQR 138, 979) days, 130 serious infections occurred among 104 individuals (incidence 6.1 [95% CI 5.0-7.4] per 100 person-years). Time-varying TMP-SMX was negatively associated with serious infection (adjusted HR 0.5; 95% CI 0.3-0.9). The aHR for outpatient infections was 0.8 (95% CI 0.6-1.1). The estimate for PJP was imprecise (13 events, unadjusted HR 0.2; 95% CI 0.03-1.8). TMP-SMX was potentially associated with adverse events (aHR 1.3; 95% CI 0.9-1.9). CONCLUSIONS: TMP-SMX prophylaxis was associated with reduced serious infections in rituximab-treated GPA, but may increase adverse events, warranting further study of optimal prophylaxis strategies.

When Should I Get My Next COVID-19 Vaccine? Data From the Surveillance of Responses to COVID-19 Vaccines in Systemic Immune-Mediated Inflammatory Diseases (SUCCEED) Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine how serologic responses to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and infection in immune-mediated inflammatory disease (IMID) are affected by time since last vaccination and other factors. METHODS: Post-COVID-19 vaccination, data, and dried blood spots or sera were collected from adults with rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, systemic lupus erythematosus, ankylosing spondylitis and spondylarthritis, and psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis. The first sample was collected at enrollment, then at 2 to 4 weeks and 3, 6, and 12 months after the latest vaccine dose. Multivariate generalized estimating equation regressions (including medications, demographics, and vaccination history) evaluated serologic response, based on log-transformed anti-receptor-binding domain (RBD) IgG titers; we also measured antinucleocapsid (anti-N) IgG. RESULTS: Positive associations for log-transformed anti-RBD titers were seen with female sex, number of doses, and self-reported COVID-19 infections in 2021 to 2023. Negative associations were seen with prednisone, anti-tumor necrosis factor agents, and rituximab. Over the 2021-2023 period, most (94%) of anti-N positivity was associated with a self-reported infection in the 3 months prior to testing. From March 2021 to February 2022, anti-N positivity was present in 5% to 15% of samples and was highest in the post-Omicron era, with antinucleocapsid positivity trending to 30% to 35% or higher as of March 2023. Anti-N positivity in IMID remained lower than Canada's general population seroprevalence (> 50% in 2022 and > 75% in 2023). Time since last vaccination was negatively associated with log-transformed anti-RBD titers, particularly after 210 days. CONCLUSION: Ours is the first pan-Canadian IMID assessment of how vaccine history and other factors affect serologic COVID-19 vaccine responses. These findings may help individuals personalize vaccination decisions, including consideration of additional vaccination when > 6 months has elapsed since last COVID-19 vaccination/infection.

Addressing dispersion in mis-measured multivariate binomial outcomes: A novel statistical approach for detecting differentially methylated regions in bisulfite sequencing data.

Motivated by a DNA methylation application, this article addresses the problem of fitting and inferring a multivariate binomial regression model for outcomes that are contaminated by errors and exhibit extra-parametric variations, also known as dispersion. While dispersion in univariate binomial regression has been extensively studied, addressing dispersion in the context of multivariate outcomes remains a complex and relatively unexplored task. The complexity arises from a noteworthy data characteristic observed in our motivating dataset: non-constant yet correlated dispersion across outcomes. To address this challenge and account for possible measurement error, we propose a novel hierarchical quasi-binomial varying coefficient mixed model, which enables flexible dispersion patterns through a combination of additive and multiplicative dispersion components. To maximize the Laplace-approximated quasi-likelihood of our model, we further develop a specialized two-stage expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, where a plug-in estimate for the multiplicative scale parameter enhances the speed and stability of the EM iterations. Simulations demonstrated that our approach yields accurate inference for smooth covariate effects and exhibits excellent power in detecting non-zero effects. Additionally, we applied our proposed method to investigate the association between DNA methylation, measured across the genome through targeted custom capture sequencing of whole blood, and levels of anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA), a preclinical marker for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) risk. Our analysis revealed 23 significant genes that potentially contribute to ACPA-related differential methylation, highlighting the relevance of cell signaling and collagen metabolism in RA. We implemented our method in the R Bioconductor package called "SOMNiBUS."

COVID-19 vaccination safety and associated health care utilization among adults with inflammatory bowel disease - a population-based self-controlled case series analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There is an incomplete understanding of the full safety profiles of repeated COVID-19 vaccinations in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Among individuals with IBD, we assessed whether COVID-19 vaccines were associated with serious adverse events of special interest (AESI) and health care utilization [all-cause hospitalizations, Emergency Department (ED) visits, gastroenterology visits, IBD-related visits]. METHODS: Using comprehensive administrative health data from Ontario, Canada, adults with IBD who received at least one COVID-19 vaccine from December 2020-January 2022 were included. Self-controlled case series analyses were conducted to evaluate the relative incidence rates of AESI and health care utilization outcomes across post-vaccination risk and control periods. RESULTS: Among 88,407 IBD patients, 99.7% received mRNA vaccines and 75.9% received ≥ 3 doses. Relative to control periods, we did not detect an increase in AESI. IBD patients had fewer all-cause hospitalizations during post-vaccination risk periods. Patients experienced more all-cause ED visits after dose 2 [Relative Incidence (RI):1.08(95%CI:1.04-1.12)] but fewer visits after doses 3 [RI:0.85 (95%CI:0.81-0.90)] and 4 [RI:0.73 (95%CI:0.57-0.92)]. There was no increase in gastroenterologist visits or IBD-related health care utilization post-vaccination. There were fewer IBD-related hospitalizations after dose 1 [RI:0.84 (95%CI:0.72-0.98)] and 3 [RI:0.63 (95%CI:0.52-0.76)], fewer IBD-related ED visits after dose 3 [RI:0.81 (95%CI:0.71-0.91)] and 4 [RI:0.55 (95%CI:0.32-0.96)], and fewer outpatient visits after dose 2 [RI:0.91 (95%CI:0.90-0.93)] and 3 [RI:0.87 (95%CI:0.86-0.89)]. CONCLUSION: This population-based study did not detect increased AESI, all-cause or IBD-related health care utilization following COVID-19 vaccination, suggesting a lack of association between vaccination and increased disease activity.

Adverse Events and Serological Responses After SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination in Individuals With Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

INTRODUCTION: We determined adverse events after 4 doses of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine in those with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), associations between antibodies and injection site reactions (ISR), and risk of IBD flare. METHODS: Individuals with IBD were interviewed for adverse events to SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Multivariable linear regression assessed the association between antibody titers and ISR. RESULTS: Severe adverse events occurred in 0.03%. ISR were significantly associated with antibody levels after the fourth dose (geometric mean ratio = 2.56; 95% confidence interval 1.18-5.57). No cases of IBD flare occurred. DISCUSSION: SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are safe for those with IBD. ISR after the fourth dose may indicate increased antibodies.

Machine learning identifies clusters of longitudinal autoantibody profiles predictive of systemic lupus erythematosus disease outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: A novel longitudinal clustering technique was applied to comprehensive autoantibody data from a large, well-characterised, multinational inception systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cohort to determine profiles predictive of clinical outcomes. METHODS: Demographic, clinical and serological data from 805 patients with SLE obtained within 15 months of diagnosis and at 3-year and 5-year follow-up were included. For each visit, sera were assessed for 29 antinuclear antibodies (ANA) immunofluorescence patterns and 20 autoantibodies. K-means clustering on principal component analysis-transformed longitudinal autoantibody profiles identified discrete phenotypic clusters. One-way analysis of variance compared cluster enrolment demographics and clinical outcomes at 10-year follow-up. Cox proportional hazards model estimated the HR for survival adjusting for age of disease onset. RESULTS: Cluster 1 (n=137, high frequency of anti-Smith, anti-U1RNP, AC-5 (large nuclear speckled pattern) and high ANA titres) had the highest cumulative disease activity and immunosuppressants/biologics use at year 10. Cluster 2 (n=376, low anti-double stranded DNA (dsDNA) and ANA titres) had the lowest disease activity, frequency of lupus nephritis and immunosuppressants/biologics use. Cluster 3 (n=80, highest frequency of all five antiphospholipid antibodies) had the highest frequency of seizures and hypocomplementaemia. Cluster 4 (n=212) also had high disease activity and was characterised by multiple autoantibody reactivity including to antihistone, anti-dsDNA, antiribosomal P, anti-Sjögren syndrome antigen A or Ro60, anti-Sjögren syndrome antigen B or La, anti-Ro52/Tripartite Motif Protein 21, antiproliferating cell nuclear antigen and anticentromere B). Clusters 1 (adjusted HR 2.60 (95% CI 1.12 to 6.05), p=0.03) and 3 (adjusted HR 2.87 (95% CI 1.22 to 6.74), p=0.02) had lower survival compared with cluster 2. CONCLUSION: Four discrete SLE patient longitudinal autoantibody clusters were predictive of long-term disease activity, organ involvement, treatment requirements and mortality risk.

N-Terminal pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide is a biomarker for cardiovascular damage in systemic lupus erythematous: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: Prediction models based on traditional risk factors underestimate cardiovascular (CV) risk in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). In a large sample of unselected SLE patients, we investigated cross-sectional associations of NT-proBNP with cardiovascular damage (CVD). METHODS: Serum NT-proBNP was measured in SLE patients enrolled in the MUHC Lupus Clinic registry. Serum were collected between March 2022 and April 2023 at annual research visits. The primary outcome was CVD identified on the SLICC Damage Index. Factors associated with CVD and NT-proBNP levels were determined. RESULTS: Overall, 270 SLE patients (female 91%, median age 50.7 [1st quartile- 3rd quartile : 39.6-62.1] years) were analyzed for the primary outcome. Among them, 33 (12%) had CVD. The ROC curve for NT-proBNP demonstrated strong associations with CVD (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.69-0.87) with a threshold of 133 pg/ml providing the best discrimination for those with/without CVD. Hypertension (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.2-9.0), dyslipidaemia (OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.3-9.6) and NT-proBNP > 133 pg/ml (OR 7.0, 95% CI, 2.6-19.1) were associated with CVD in the multivariable logistic regression model. Increased NT-proBNP levels were associated with age (OR 4.2, 95% CI 2.2-8.3), ever smoking (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.0-3.5), reduced eGFR (4.1, 95% CI 1.3-13.1), prior pericarditis/pleuritis (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4-4.5) and aPL antibodies (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4-4.9). CONCLUSION: NT-proBNP is a biomarker for CV damage in SLE. The novel associations of NT-proBNP levels with prior pericarditis/pleuritis and aPL antibodies suggest new avenues for research to better understand what drives CV risk in SLE.

Importance of accounting for timing of time-varying exposures in association studies: Hydrochlorothiazide and non-melanoma skin cancer.

PURPOSE: Hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ), a widely prescribed antihypertensive drug with photosensitising properties, has been linked with non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) risk. However, previous analyses did not fully explore if and how the impact of past HCTZ exposures accumulates with prolonged use and/or depends on time elapsed since exposures. Therefore, we used different models to more comprehensively assess how NMSC risk vary with HCTZ exposure, and explore how the results may depend on modeling strategies. METHODS: We used different parametric models with alternative time-varying exposure metrics, and the flexible weighted cumulative exposure model (WCE) to estimate associations between HCTZ exposures and NMSC risk in a population-based cohort of HCTZ users over 65 years old, in the province of Ontario, Canada. RESULTS: Among 3844 HCTZ users, 273 developed NMSC during up to 8 years of follow-up. In parametric models, based on all exposures, increased duration of past HCTZ use was associated with an increase of NMSC risk but cumulative dose showed no systematic association. Yet, WCE results suggested that only exposures taken 2.5-4 years in the past were associated with the current NMSC hazard. This finding led us to re-define the parametric models, which also confirmed that any HCTZ dose taken outside this time-window were not systematically associated with NMSC incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses illustrate how flexible modeling may yield new insights into complex temporal relationships between a time-varying drug exposure and risks of adverse events. Duration and recency of antihypertensive agents exposures must be taken into account in evaluating risk and benefits.

Fine particulate matter components and interstitial lung disease in rheumatoid arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µg·m-3 (PM2.5) is a risk factor for pulmonary and systemic autoimmune diseases; however, evidence on which PM2.5 chemical components are more harmful is still scant. Our goal is to investigate potential associations between major PM2.5 components and interstitial lung disease (ILD) onset in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: New-onset RA subjects identified from a US healthcare insurance database (MarketScan) were followed for new onset of RA-associated ILD (RA-ILD) from 2011 to 2018. Annual concentrations of ambient PM2.5 chemical components (i.e. sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic matter, black carbon, mineral dust and sea salt) were estimated by combining satellite retrievals with chemical transport modelling and refined by geographically weighted regression. Exposures from 2006 up to 1 year before ILD onset or end of study were assigned to subjects based on their core-based statistical area or metropolitan division codes. A novel time-to-event quantile-based g (generalised)-computation approach was used to estimate potential associations between RA-ILD onset and the exposure mixture of all seven PM2.5 chemical components adjusting for age, sex and prior chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (as a proxy for smoking). RESULTS: We followed 280 516 new-onset RA patients and detected 2194 RA-ILD cases across 1 394 385 person-years. The adjusted hazard ratio for RA-ILD onset was 1.54 (95% CI 1.47-1.63) per every decile increase in all seven exposures. Ammonium, mineral dust and black carbon contributed more to ILD risk than the other PM2.5 components. CONCLUSION: Exposure to components of PM2.5, particularly ammonium, increases ILD risk in RA.

The role of environmental exposures and gene-environment interactions in the etiology of systemic lupus erythematous.

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a complex, chronic autoimmune disease, whose etiology includes both genetic and environmental factors. Individual genetic risk factors likely only account for about one-third of observed heritability among individuals with a family history of SLE. A large portion of the remaining risk may be attributable to environmental exposures and gene-environment interactions. This review focuses on SLE risk associated with environmental factors, ranging from chemical and physical environmental exposures to lifestyle behaviors, with the weight of evidence supporting positive associations between SLE and occupational exposure to crystalline silica, current smoking, and exogenous estrogens (e.g., oral contraceptives and postmenopausal hormones). Other risk factors may include lifestyle behaviors (e.g., dietary intake and sleep) and other exposures (e.g., ultraviolet [UV] radiation, air pollution, solvents, pesticides, vaccines and medications, and infections). Alcohol use may be associated with decreased SLE risk. We also describe the more limited body of knowledge on gene-environment interactions and SLE risk, including IL-10, ESR1, IL-33, ITGAM, and NAT2 and observed interactions with smoking, UV exposure, and alcohol. Understanding genetic and environmental risk factors for SLE, and how they may interact, can help to elucidate SLE pathogenesis and its clinical heterogeneity. Ultimately, this knowledge may facilitate the development of preventive interventions that address modifiable risk factors in susceptible individuals and vulnerable populations.

Remission and low disease activity (LDA) prevent damage accrual in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the independent impact of different definitions of remission and low disease activity (LDA) on damage accrual. METHODS: Patients with ≥2 annual assessments from a longitudinal multinational inception lupus cohort were studied. Five mutually exclusive disease activity states were defined: remission off-treatment: clinical Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (cSLEDAI)-2K=0, without prednisone or immunosuppressants; remission on-treatment: cSLEDAI-2K score=0, prednisone ≤5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants; low disease activity Toronto cohort (LDA-TC): cSLEDAI-2K score of ≤2, without prednisone or immunosuppressants; modified lupus low disease activity (mLLDAS): Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index-2K score of 4 with no activity in major organ/systems, no new disease activity, prednisone ≤7.5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants; active: all remaining visits. Only the most stringent definition was used per visit. Antimalarials were allowed in all. The proportion of time that patients were in a specific state at each visit since cohort entry was determined. Damage accrual was ascertained with the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index (SDI). Univariable and multivariable generalised estimated equation negative binomial regression models were used. Time-dependent covariates were determined at the same annual visit as the disease activity state but the SDI at the subsequent visit. RESULTS: There were 1652 patients, 1464 (88.6%) female, mean age at diagnosis 34.2 (SD 13.4) years and mean follow-up time of 7.7 (SD 4.8) years. Being in remission off-treatment, remission on-treatment, LDA-TC and mLLDAS (per 25% increase) were each associated with a lower probability of damage accrual (remission off-treatment: incidence rate ratio (IRR)=0.75, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.81; remission on-treatment: IRR=0.68, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.75; LDA: IRR=0.79, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.92; and mLLDAS: IRR=0.76, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.89)). CONCLUSIONS: Remission on-treatment and off-treatment, LDA-TC and mLLDAS were associated with less damage accrual, even adjusting for possible confounders and effect modifiers.

Flares after hydroxychloroquine reduction or discontinuation: results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flares following hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) reduction or discontinuation versus HCQ maintenance. METHODS: We analysed prospective data from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) cohort, enrolled from 33 sites within 15 months of SLE diagnosis and followed annually (1999-2019). We evaluated person-time contributed while on the initial HCQ dose ('maintenance'), comparing this with person-time contributed after a first dose reduction, and after a first HCQ discontinuation. We estimated time to first flare, defined as either subsequent need for therapy augmentation, increase of ≥4 points in the SLE Disease Activity Index-2000, or hospitalisation for SLE. We estimated adjusted HRs (aHRs) with 95% CIs associated with reducing/discontinuing HCQ (vs maintenance). We also conducted separate multivariable hazard regressions in each HCQ subcohort to identify factors associated with flare. RESULTS: We studied 1460 (90% female) patients initiating HCQ. aHRs for first SLE flare were 1.20 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.38) and 1.56 (95% CI 1.31 to 1.86) for the HCQ reduction and discontinuation groups, respectively, versus HCQ maintenance. Patients with low educational level were at particular risk of flaring after HCQ discontinuation (aHR 1.43, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.87). Prednisone use at time-zero was associated with over 1.5-fold increase in flare risk in all HCQ subcohorts. CONCLUSIONS: SLE flare risk was higher after HCQ taper/discontinuation versus HCQ maintenance. Decisions to maintain, reduce or stop HCQ may affect specific subgroups differently, including those on prednisone and/or with low education. Further study of special groups (eg, seniors) may be helpful.

Characteristics associated with poor COVID-19 outcomes in individuals with systemic lupus erythematosus: data from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance.

AIM: To determine characteristics associated with more severe outcomes in a global registry of people with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and COVID-19. METHODS: People with SLE and COVID-19 reported in the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance registry from March 2020 to June 2021 were included. The ordinal outcome was defined as: (1) not hospitalised, (2) hospitalised with no oxygenation, (3) hospitalised with any ventilation or oxygenation and (4) death. A multivariable ordinal logistic regression model was constructed to assess the relationship between COVID-19 severity and demographic characteristics, comorbidities, medications and disease activity. RESULTS: A total of 1606 people with SLE were included. In the multivariable model, older age (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.04), male sex (1.50, 1.01 to 2.23), prednisone dose (1-5 mg/day 1.86, 1.20 to 2.66, 6-9 mg/day 2.47, 1.24 to 4.86 and ≥10 mg/day 1.95, 1.27 to 2.99), no current treatment (1.80, 1.17 to 2.75), comorbidities (eg, kidney disease 3.51, 2.42 to 5.09, cardiovascular disease/hypertension 1.69, 1.25 to 2.29) and moderate or high SLE disease activity (vs remission; 1.61, 1.02 to 2.54 and 3.94, 2.11 to 7.34, respectively) were associated with more severe outcomes. In age-adjusted and sex-adjusted models, mycophenolate, rituximab and cyclophosphamide were associated with worse outcomes compared with hydroxychloroquine; outcomes were more favourable with methotrexate and belimumab. CONCLUSIONS: More severe COVID-19 outcomes in individuals with SLE are largely driven by demographic factors, comorbidities and untreated or active SLE. Patients using glucocorticoids also experienced more severe outcomes.

Longitudinal analysis of ANA in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort.

OBJECTIVES: A perception derived from cross-sectional studies of small systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cohorts is that there is a marked discrepancy between antinuclear antibody (ANA) assays, which impacts on clinicians' approach to diagnosis and follow-up. We compared three ANA assays in a longitudinal analysis of a large international incident SLE cohort retested regularly and followed for 5 years. METHODS: Demographic, clinical and serological data was from 805 SLE patients at enrolment, year 3 and 5. Two HEp-2 indirect immunofluorescence assays (IFA1, IFA2), an ANA ELISA, and SLE-related autoantibodies were performed in one laboratory. Frequencies of positivity, titres or absorbance units (AU), and IFA patterns were compared using McNemar, Wilcoxon and kappa statistics, respectively. RESULTS: At enrolment, ANA positivity (≥1:80) was 96.1% by IFA1 (median titre 1:1280 (IQR 1:640-1:5120)), 98.3% by IFA2 (1:2560 (IQR 1:640-1:5120)) and 96.6% by ELISA (176.3 AU (IQR 106.4 AU-203.5 AU)). At least one ANA assay was positive for 99.6% of patients at enrolment. At year 5, ANA positivity by IFAs (IFA1 95.2%; IFA2 98.9%) remained high, while there was a decrease in ELISA positivity (91.3%, p<0.001). Overall, there was >91% agreement in ANA positivity at all time points and ≥71% agreement in IFA patterns between IFA1 and IFA2. CONCLUSION: In recent-onset SLE, three ANA assays demonstrated commutability with a high proportion of positivity and titres or AU. However, over 5 years follow-up, there was modest variation in ANA assay performance. In clinical situations where the SLE diagnosis is being considered, a negative test by either the ELISA or HEp-2 IFA may require reflex testing.

Serologic phenotypes distinguish systemic lupus erythematosus patients developing interstitial lung disease and/or myositis.

OBJECTIVES: To determine if serologic phenotypes could be identified in systemic lupus erythematosus patients developing interstitial lung disease (ILD) and/or myositis. METHODS: Adult SLE patients (without myositis/ILD at baseline) had annual assessments and serum sampling between 2000 and 2017. New-onset ILD was identified using the SDI pulmonary fibrosis item. New-onset myositis was identified using the SLICC Damage Index muscle atrophy/weakness item, the SLEDAI-2K item for myositis, and annual creatinine kinase testing. Chart review confirmed ILD/myositis cases and randomly sampled SLE patients from baseline formed our sub-cohort (N = 72). Cases and sub-cohort were compared regarding myositis-related biomarkers at baseline and at a randomly selected follow-up between baseline and end of observation (date of ILD/myositis diagnosis or Dec. 31, 2017). Descriptive analyses and hazards ratios (HRs) were generated for ILD/myositis incidence, focusing on baseline serology and adjusting for sex, race/ethnicity, age at SLE diagnosis, and SLE duration. RESULTS: Fourteen SLE patients developed ILD (N = 9), myositis (N = 3), and/or both (N = 2). Thirteen of those (92.9%) developing ILD/myositis had at least one biomarker at baseline, versus 47 (65.3%) SLE patients who never developed myositis/ILD. The most common biomarkers in myositis/ILD were KL-6, anti-Ro52, and anti-Ku. Baseline biomarkers tended to remain positive in follow-up. In multivariate Cox regressions, SLE patients had higher risk of developing myositis/ILD with elevated baseline KL-6 (adjusted hazard ratio 3.66; 95% confidence interval 1.01, 13.3). When updating biomarkers over time, we also saw correlations between anti-Smith and ILD/myositis. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline myositis-related biomarkers were highly associated with ILD/myositis incidence. This is the first identification of biomarker phenotypes with ILD/myositis risk in SLE.

Association between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, smoking, and interstitial lung disease onset in rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: In rheumatoid arthritis (RA), respiratory manifestations include chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and interstitial lung disease (ILD). We assessed whether baseline COPD and smoking were associated with RA-ILD onset. METHODS: We identified new-onset ILD in incident RA subjects within the MarketScan Commercial Claims database, using physician and/or hospitalisation diagnostic codes. Smoking data (current, past, never) were available for a subset via a health questionnaire. Kaplan-Meier analyses assessed time to ILD onset, stratified by prior COPD and smoking. Multivariate Cox regression models were adjusted for age, sex, and (in the subset) smoking. Sensitivity analyses adjusted for past RA drugs. RESULTS: Among 373,940 new RA subjects, 6343 (1.7%) developed ILD (8.1 events per 1000 person-year, 95% CI 7.9, 8.3). ILD was more common among subjects with baseline COPD. Adjusting for age and sex, the hazard ratio (HR) between baseline COPD and incident ILD was 2.15, 95% CI 1.93, 2.39. We could not establish a clear relationship between current smoking and ILD; in the subset with smoking data, the HR point estimate for COPD was similar but the 95% CI was wider (due to fewer subjects) and included the null value. Adjusting for baseline RA drugs did not change results. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-existing COPD in incident RA subjects was associated with higher risk of future ILD. While a trend persisted after adjusting for smoking, we were limited by reduced sample size. Our study highlights the importance of ongoing assessments of potentially complicated relationships between smoking, COPD, and other factors in RA-associated ILD.

"It feels like an endless fight": a qualitative study exploring healthcare utilization of persons with rheumatic conditions waiting for pain clinic admission.

BACKGROUND: Individuals living with a rheumatic pain condition can face delays in accessing pain clinics, which prevents them from receiving timely treatment. Little is known regarding their specific healthcare utilization in order to alleviate pain while waiting to obtain services in pain clinics. Hence, the aim of this study was to explore the perceptions and experiences of persons living with rheumatic conditions regarding healthcare utilization while waiting to access a pain clinic. METHODS: In this qualitative descriptive study, semi-structured interviews were conducted with adults living with a painful rheumatic condition that reported either being waiting for admission in a pain clinic, having been referred but then denied pain clinic services, or having received services during the previous six months, in the province of Quebec, Canada. The interviews were transcribed verbatim, and an inductive thematic analysis was performed. RESULTS: Twenty-six individuals were interviewed (22 women and 4 men; mean age 54 ± 10 years). Three themes were identified: 1) lacking guidance in identifying solutions to their complex and multidimensional needs, 2) struggling to obtain and maintain services due to systemic access barriers, and 3) displaying resilience through a search for accessible and sustainable self-management strategies. CONCLUSIONS: The current approaches and structures of health services fail to adequately answer the service needs of individuals experiencing painful rheumatic conditions. Important shifts are required in pain education, in increasing access to multidisciplinary approaches at the primary care level and in breaking down barriers individuals with chronic pain face to receive appropriate and timely care.

Adapting SIMEX to correct for bias due to interval-censored outcomes in survival analysis with time-varying exposure.

Many clinical and epidemiological applications of survival analysis focus on interval-censored events that can be ascertained only at discrete times of clinic visits. This implies that the values of time-varying covariates are not correctly aligned with the true, unknown event times, inducing a bias in the estimated associations. To address this issue, we adapted the simulation-extrapolation (SIMEX) methodology, based on assessing how the estimates change with the artificially increased time between clinic visits. We propose diagnostics to choose the extrapolating function. In simulations, the SIMEX-corrected estimates reduced considerably the bias to the null and generally yielded a better bias/variance trade-off than conventional estimates. In a real-life pharmacoepidemiological application, the proposed method increased by 27% the excess hazard of the estimated association between a time-varying exposure, representing the 2-year cumulative duration of past use of a hypertensive medication, and the hazard of nonmelanoma skin cancer (interval-censored events). These simulation-based and real-life results suggest that the proposed SIMEX-based correction may help improve the accuracy of estimated associations between time-varying exposures and the hazard of interval-censored events in large cohort studies where the events are recorded only at relatively sparse times of clinic visits/assessments. However, these advantages may be less certain for smaller studies and/or weak associations.

Evaluating a new referral pathway from physical therapists to rheumatologists: A qualitative study.

Early referral to rheumatology of people with suspected inflammatory arthritis is associated with better outcomes. Typically, these individuals are seen by a family physician who would assess the need for rheumatology referral. However, some may first consult a physical therapist where no physician referral is required. New interprofessional referral pathways, such as direct referral from a physical therapist to a rheumatologist, could enhance early access to a rheumatologist. Our objective was to explore perceptions of clinicians and people with inflammatory arthritis regarding physical therapists referring directly to rheumatologists. We used purposive and snowball sampling to recruit participants for five focus groups: rheumatologists, family physicians, physical therapists, people with inflammatory arthritis, and a mixed group of physical therapists and people with inflammatory arthritis. Thematic analysis revealed four core themes: difficulties accessing care, reluctance of family physicians and rheumatologists toward the new pathway, interprofessional relationships (or lack thereof), and opportunities along the referral pathway. The conclusions are that care must be optimized by ensuring swift referral for those who require it; and that there is a need for knowledge translation to all actors on the advantages of this new pathway.