Spatial structure, transmission modes and the evolution of viral exploitation strategies.

Spatial structure and local migration are predicted to promote the evolution of less aggressive host exploitation strategies in horizontally transmitted pathogens. Here we explore the effect of spatial structure on the evolution of pathogens that can use both horizontal and vertical routes of transmission. First, we analyse theoretically how vertical transmission can alter evolutionary trajectories and confirm that space can impede the spread of virulent pathogens. Second, we test this prediction using the latent phage λ which transmits horizontally and vertically in Escherichia coli populations. We show that the latent phage λ wins competition against the virulent mutant λcI857 in spatially structured epidemics, but loses when spatial structure is eroded. The vertical transmission of phage λ immunizes its local host pool against superinfection and prevents the spread of the virulent λcI857. This effect breaks down when mixing facilitates horizontal transmission to uninfected hosts. We thus confirm the importance of spatial structure for the evolutionary maintenance of prudent infection strategies in latent viruses.

Evolution of virulence in emerging epidemics.

Theory predicts that selection for pathogen virulence and horizontal transmission is highest at the onset of an epidemic but decreases thereafter, as the epidemic depletes the pool of susceptible hosts. We tested this prediction by tracking the competition between the latent bacteriophage λ and its virulent mutant λcI857 throughout experimental epidemics taking place in continuous cultures of Escherichia coli. As expected, the virulent λcI857 is strongly favored in the early stage of the epidemic, but loses competition with the latent virus as prevalence increases. We show that the observed transient selection for virulence and horizontal transmission can be fully explained within the framework of evolutionary epidemiology theory. This experimental validation of our predictions is a key step towards a predictive theory for the evolution of virulence in emerging infectious diseases.

Evolution of suicide as a defence strategy against pathogens in a spatially structured environment.

Suicide upon infection by lytic phages is known in several bacteria species and represents an effective defence strategy to limit phage spread. However, the ecological conditions favouring the evolution of such a radically altruistic behaviour are unclear. Here, we model the feedback of epidemiology on host evolution in a spatially structured environment and we generate several specific predictions on altruistic suicide evolution. We test these predictions experimentally by competing E. coli cells carrying the suicide gene Lit against non-carrier cells in the presence or in the absence of the lytic phage T6. We show that in accord with our theoretical analysis altruistic suicide is only favoured in the presence of the phage in spatially structured environments at intermediate levels of mixing. Our work provides a general explanation for the evolution of altruistic defence strategies against pathogens. We discuss the implications of these results for oncolytic virus therapy.

Inhibition of superinfection and the evolution of viral latency.

Latent viruses generally defend their host cell against superinfection by nonlatent virulent mutants that could destroy the host cell. Superinfection inhibition thus seems to be a prerequisite for the maintenance of viral latency. Yet viral latency can break down when resistance to superinfection inhibition, known as ultravirulence, occurs. To understand the evolution of viral latency, we have developed a model that analyzes the epidemiology of latent infection in the face of ultravirulence. We show that latency can be maintained when superinfection inhibition and resistance against it coevolve in an arms race, which can result in large fluctuations in virulence. An example is the coevolution of the virulence and superinfection repressor protein of phage lambda (cI) and its binding target, the lambda oLoR operator. We show that this repressor/operator coevolution is the driving force for the evolution of superinfection immunity groups. Beyond latent phages, we predict analogous dynamics for any latent virus that uses a single repressor for the simultaneous control of virulence and superinfection.

Bet-hedging and epigenetic inheritance in bacterial cell development.

Upon nutritional limitation, the bacterium Bacillus subtilis has the capability to enter the irreversible process of sporulation. This developmental process is bistable, and only a subpopulation of cells actually differentiates into endospores. Why a cell decides to sporulate or not to do so is poorly understood. Here, through the use of time-lapse microscopy, we follow the growth, division, and differentiation of individual cells to identify elements of cell history and ancestry that could affect this decision process. These analyses show that during microcolony development, B. subtilis uses a bet-hedging strategy whereby some cells sporulate while others use alternative metabolites to continue growth, providing the latter subpopulation with a reproductive advantage. We demonstrate that B. subtilis is subject to aging. Nevertheless, the age of the cell plays no role in the decision of its fate. However, the physiological state of the cell's ancestor (more than two generations removed) does affect the outcome of cellular differentiation. We show that this epigenetic inheritance is based on positive feedback within the sporulation phosphorelay. The extended intergenerational "memory" caused by this autostimulatory network may be important for the development of multicellular structures such as fruiting bodies and biofilms.