Efficient penalized generalized linear mixed models for variable selection and genetic risk prediction in high-dimensional data.

MOTIVATION: Sparse regularized regression methods are now widely used in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to address the multiple testing burden that limits discovery of potentially important predictors. Linear mixed models (LMMs) have become an attractive alternative to principal components (PCs) adjustment to account for population structure and relatedness in high-dimensional penalized models. However, their use in binary trait GWAS rely on the invalid assumption that the residual variance does not depend on the estimated regression coefficients. Moreover, LMMs use a single spectral decomposition of the covariance matrix of the responses, which is no longer possible in generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). RESULTS: We introduce a new method called pglmm, a penalized GLMM that allows to simultaneously select genetic markers and estimate their effects, accounting for between-individual correlations and binary nature of the trait. We develop a computationally efficient algorithm based on penalized quasi-likelihood estimation that allows to scale regularized mixed models on high-dimensional binary trait GWAS. We show through simulations that when the dimensionality of the relatedness matrix is high, penalized LMM and logistic regression with PC adjustment fail to select important predictors, and have inferior prediction accuracy compared to pglmm. Further, we demonstrate through the analysis of two polygenic binary traits in a subset of 6731 related individuals from the UK Biobank data with 320K SNPs that our method can achieve higher predictive performance, while also selecting fewer predictors than a sparse regularized logistic lasso with PC adjustment. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Our Julia package PenalizedGLMM.jl is publicly available on github: https://github.com/julstpierre/PenalizedGLMM. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Development of Machine Learning Models for Predicting the 1-Year Risk of Reoperation After Lower Limb Oncological Resection and Endoprosthetic Reconstruction Based on Data From the PARITY Trial.

BACKGROUND: Oncological resection and reconstruction involving the lower extremities commonly lead to reoperations that impact patient outcomes and healthcare resources. This study aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) model to predict this reoperation risk. METHODS: This study was conducted according to TRIPOD + AI. Data from the PARITY trial was used to develop ML models to predict the 1-year reoperation risk following lower extremity oncological resection and reconstruction. Six ML algorithms were tuned and calibrated based on fivefold cross-validation. The best-performing model was identified using classification and calibration metrics. RESULTS: The polynomial support vector machine (SVM) model was chosen as the best-performing model. During internal validation, the SVM exhibited an AUC-ROC of 0.73 and a Brier score of 0.17. Using an optimal threshold that balances all quadrants of the confusion matrix, the SVM exhibited a sensitivity of 0.45 and a specificity of 0.81. Using a high-sensitivity threshold, the SVM exhibited a sensitivity of 0.68 and a specificity of 0.68. Total operative time was the most important feature for reoperation risk prediction. CONCLUSION: The models may facilitate reoperation risk stratification, allowing for better patient counseling and for physicians to implement measures that reduce surgical risks.

Variable selection in regression-based estimation of dynamic treatment regimes.

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) consist of a sequence of decision rules, one per stage of intervention, that aim to recommend effective treatments for individual patients according to patient information history. DTRs can be estimated from models which include interactions between treatment and a (typically small) number of covariates which are often chosen a priori. However, with increasingly large and complex data being collected, it can be difficult to know which prognostic factors might be relevant in the treatment rule. Therefore, a more data-driven approach to select these covariates might improve the estimated decision rules and simplify models to make them easier to interpret. We propose a variable selection method for DTR estimation using penalized dynamic weighted least squares. Our method has the strong heredity property, that is, an interaction term can be included in the model only if the corresponding main terms have also been selected. We show our method has both the double robustness property and the oracle property theoretically; and the newly proposed method compares favorably with other variable selection approaches in numerical studies. We further illustrate the proposed method on data from the Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression study.

CT-based Bosniak classification of cystic renal lesions: is version 2019 an improvement on version 2005?

OBJECTIVE: To compare the diagnostic performance and inter-reader agreement of the CT-based v2019 versus v2005 Bosniak classification systems for risk stratification of cystic renal lesions (CRL). METHODS: This retrospective study included adult patients with CRL identified on CT scan between 2005 and 2018. The reference standard was histopathology or a minimum 4-year imaging follow-up. The studies were reviewed independently by five readers (three senior, two junior), blinded to pathology results and imaging follow-up, who assigned Bosniak categories based on the 2005 and 2019 versions. Diagnostic performance of v2005 and v2019 Bosniak classifications for distinguishing benign from malignant lesions was calculated by dichotomizing CRL into the potential for ablative therapy (III-IV) or conservative management (I-IIF). Inter-reader agreement was calculated using Light's Kappa. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-nine patients with 149 CRL (33 malignant) were included. v2005 and v2019 Bosniak classifications achieved similar diagnostic performance with a sensitivity of 91% vs 91% and a specificity of 89% vs 88%, respectively. Inter-reader agreement for overall Bosniak category assignment was substantial for v2005 (κ = 0.78) and v2019 (κ = 0.75) between senior readers but decreased for v2019 when the Bosniak classification was dichotomized to conservative management (I-IIF) or ablative therapy (III-IV) (0.80 vs 0.71, respectively). For v2019, wall thickness was the morphological feature with the poorest inter-reader agreement (κ = 0.43 and 0.18 for senior and junior readers, respectively). CONCLUSION: No significant improvement in diagnostic performance and inter-reader agreement was shown between v2005 and v2019. The observed decrease in inter-reader agreement in v2019 when dichotomized according to management strategy may reflect the more stringent morphological criteria. KEY POINTS: • Versions 2005 and 2019 Bosniak classifications achieved similar diagnostic performance, but the specificity of higher risk categories (III and IV) was not increased while one malignant lesion was downgraded to v2019 Bosniak category II (i.e., not subjected to further follow-up). • Inter-reader agreement was similar between v2005 and v2019 but moderately decreased for v2019 when the Bosniak classification was dichotomized according to the potential need for ablative therapies (I-II-IIF vs III-IV).

Simultaneous SNP selection and adjustment for population structure in high dimensional prediction models.

Complex traits are known to be influenced by a combination of environmental factors and rare and common genetic variants. However, detection of such multivariate associations can be compromised by low statistical power and confounding by population structure. Linear mixed effects models (LMM) can account for correlations due to relatedness but have not been applicable in high-dimensional (HD) settings where the number of fixed effect predictors greatly exceeds the number of samples. False positives or false negatives can result from two-stage approaches, where the residuals estimated from a null model adjusted for the subjects' relationship structure are subsequently used as the response in a standard penalized regression model. To overcome these challenges, we develop a general penalized LMM with a single random effect called ggmix for simultaneous SNP selection and adjustment for population structure in high dimensional prediction models. We develop a blockwise coordinate descent algorithm with automatic tuning parameter selection which is highly scalable, computationally efficient and has theoretical guarantees of convergence. Through simulations and three real data examples, we show that ggmix leads to more parsimonious models compared to the two-stage approach or principal component adjustment with better prediction accuracy. Our method performs well even in the presence of highly correlated markers, and when the causal SNPs are included in the kinship matrix. ggmix can be used to construct polygenic risk scores and select instrumental variables in Mendelian randomization studies. Our algorithms are available in an R package available on CRAN (https://cran.r-project.org/package=ggmix).

Block coordinate descent algorithm improves variable selection and estimation in error-in-variables regression.

Medical research increasingly includes high-dimensional regression modeling with a need for error-in-variables methods. The Convex Conditioned Lasso (CoCoLasso) utilizes a reformulated Lasso objective function and an error-corrected cross-validation to enable error-in-variables regression, but requires heavy computations. Here, we develop a Block coordinate Descent Convex Conditioned Lasso (BDCoCoLasso) algorithm for modeling high-dimensional data that are only partially corrupted by measurement error. This algorithm separately optimizes the estimation of the uncorrupted and corrupted features in an iterative manner to reduce computational cost, with a specially calibrated formulation of cross-validation error. Through simulations, we show that the BDCoCoLasso algorithm successfully copes with much larger feature sets than CoCoLasso, and as expected, outperforms the naïve Lasso with enhanced estimation accuracy and consistency, as the intensity and complexity of measurement errors increase. Also, a new smoothly clipped absolute deviation penalization option is added that may be appropriate for some data sets. We apply the BDCoCoLasso algorithm to data selected from the UK Biobank. We develop and showcase the utility of covariate-adjusted genetic risk scores for body mass index, bone mineral density, and lifespan. We demonstrate that by leveraging more information than the naïve Lasso in partially corrupted data, the BDCoCoLasso may achieve higher prediction accuracy. These innovations, together with an R package, BDCoCoLasso, make error-in-variables adjustments more accessible for high-dimensional data sets. We posit the BDCoCoLasso algorithm has the potential to be widely applied in various fields, including genomics-facilitated personalized medicine research.

Malignancy risk stratification of cystic renal lesions based on a contrast-enhanced CT-based machine learning model and a clinical decision algorithm.

OBJECTIVE: To distinguish benign from malignant cystic renal lesions (CRL) using a contrast-enhanced CT-based radiomics model and a clinical decision algorithm. METHODS: This dual-center retrospective study included patients over 18 years old with CRL between 2005 and 2018. The reference standard was histopathology or 4-year imaging follow-up. Training and testing datasets were acquired from two institutions. Quantitative 3D radiomics analyses were performed on nephrographic phase CT images. Ten-fold cross-validated LASSO regression was applied to the training dataset to identify the most discriminative features. A logistic regression model was trained to classify malignancy and tested on the independent dataset. Reported metrics included areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and balanced accuracy. Decision curve analysis for stratifying patients for surgery was performed in the testing dataset. A decision algorithm was built by combining consensus radiological readings of Bosniak categories and radiomics-based risks. RESULTS: A total of 149 CRL (139 patients; 65 years [56-72]) were included in the training dataset-35 Bosniak(B)-IIF (8.6% malignancy), 23 B-III (43.5%), and 23 B-IV (87.0%)-and 50 CRL (46 patients; 61 years [51-68]) in the testing dataset-12 B-IIF (8.3%), 10 B-III (60.0%), and 9 B-IV (100%). The machine learning model achieved high diagnostic performance in predicting malignancy in the testing dataset (AUC = 0.96; balanced accuracy = 94%). There was a net benefit across threshold probabilities in using the clinical decision algorithm over management guidelines based on Bosniak categories. CONCLUSION: CT-based radiomics modeling accurately distinguished benign from malignant CRL, outperforming the Bosniak classification. The decision algorithm best stratified lesions for surgery and active surveillance. KEY POINTS: • The radiomics model achieved excellent diagnostic performance in identifying malignant cystic renal lesions in an independent testing dataset (AUC = 0.96). • The machine learning-enhanced decision algorithm outperformed the management guidelines based on the Bosniak classification for stratifying patients to surgical ablation or active surveillance.

Strain Ultrasound Elastography of Aneurysm Sac Content after Randomized Endoleak Embolization with Sclerosing vs. Non-sclerosing Chitosan-based Hydrogels in a Canine Model.

PURPOSE: To compare the mechanical properties of aneurysm content after endoleak embolization with a chitosan hydrogel (CH) with that with a chitosan hydrogel with sodium tetradecyl sulfate (CH-STS) using strain ultrasound elastography (SUE). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Bilateral common iliac artery type Ia endoleaks were created in 9 dogs. Per animal, 1 endoleak was randomized to blinded embolization with CH, and the other, with CH-STS. Brightness-mode ultrasound, Doppler ultrasound, SUE radiofrequency ultrasound, and computed tomography were performed for up to 6 months until sacrifice. Radiologic and histopathologic studies were coregistered to identify 3 regions of interest: the embolic agent, intraluminal thrombus (ILT), and aneurysm sac. SUE segmentations were performed by 2 blinded independent observers. The maximum axial strain (MAS) was the primary outcome. Statistical analysis was performed using the Fisher exact test, multivariable linear mixed-effects models, and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). RESULTS: Residual endoleaks were identified in 7 of 9 (78%) and 4 of 9 (44%) aneurysms embolized with CH and CH-STS, respectively (P = .3348). CH-STS had a 66% lower MAS (P < .001) than CH. The ILT had a 37% lower MAS (P = .01) than CH and a 77% greater MAS (P = .079) than CH-STS. There was no significant difference in ILT between treatments. The aneurysm sacs embolized with CH-STS had a 29% lower MAS (P < .001) than those embolized with CH. Residual endoleak was associated with a 53% greater MAS (P < .001). The ICC for MAS was 0.807 (95% confidence interval: 0.754-0.849) between segmentations. CONCLUSIONS: CH-STS confers stiffer intraluminal properties to embolized aneurysms. Persistent endoleaks are associated with increased sac strain, an observation that may help guide management.

Interactive online informational and peer support application for patients with low anterior resection syndrome: patient survey and protocol for a multicentre randomized controlled trial.

AIM: Low anterior resection syndrome (LARS) refers to a constellation of bowel symptoms that affect the majority of patients following restorative proctectomy. LARS is associated with poorer quality of life (QoL), and can lead to distress, anxiety and isolation. Peer support could be an important resource for people living with LARS, helping them normalize and validate their experience. The aim of this work is to describe the development of an interactive online informational and peer support app for LARS and the protocol for a randomized controlled trial. METHOD: A multicentre, randomized, assessor-blind, parallel-groups pragmatic trial will involve patients from five large colorectal surgery practices across Canada. The trial will evaluate the impact of an interactive online informational and peer support app for LARS, consisting of LARS informational modules and a closed forum for peers and trained peer support mentors, on patient-reported outcomes of people living with LARS. The primary outcome will be global QoL at 6 months following app exposure. The treatment effect on global QoL will be modelled using generalized estimating equations. Secondary outcomes will include patient activation and bowel function as measured by LARS scores. RESULTS: In order to better understand patients' interest and preferences for an online peer support intervention for LARS, we conducted a single institution cross-sectional survey study of rectal cancer survivors. In total, 35/69 (51%) participants reported interest in online peer support for LARS. Age <65 years (OR 9.1; 95% CI 2.3-50) and minor/major LARS (OR 20; 95% CI 4.2-100) were significant predictors of interest in LARS online peer support. CONCLUSION: There is significant interest in the use of online peer support for LARS among younger patients and those with significant bowel dysfunction. Based on results of the needs assessment study, the app content and features were modified reflect patients' needs and preferences. We are now in an optimal position to rigorously test the potential effects of this initiative on patient-centered outcomes using a randomized controlled trial.

Development of a polygenic risk score to improve screening for fracture risk: A genetic risk prediction study.

BACKGROUND: Since screening programs identify only a small proportion of the population as eligible for an intervention, genomic prediction of heritable risk factors could decrease the number needing to be screened by removing individuals at low genetic risk. We therefore tested whether a polygenic risk score for heel quantitative ultrasound speed of sound (SOS)-a heritable risk factor for osteoporotic fracture-can identify low-risk individuals who can safely be excluded from a fracture risk screening program. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A polygenic risk score for SOS was trained and selected in 2 separate subsets of UK Biobank (comprising 341,449 and 5,335 individuals). The top-performing prediction model was termed "gSOS", and its utility in fracture risk screening was tested in 5 validation cohorts using the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group clinical guidelines (N = 10,522 eligible participants). All individuals were genome-wide genotyped and had measured fracture risk factors. Across the 5 cohorts, the average age ranged from 57 to 75 years, and 54% of studied individuals were women. The main outcomes were the sensitivity and specificity to correctly identify individuals requiring treatment with and without genetic prescreening. The reference standard was a bone mineral density (BMD)-based Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) score. The secondary outcomes were the proportions of the screened population requiring clinical-risk-factor-based FRAX (CRF-FRAX) screening and BMD-based FRAX (BMD-FRAX) screening. gSOS was strongly correlated with measured SOS (r2 = 23.2%, 95% CI 22.7% to 23.7%). Without genetic prescreening, guideline recommendations achieved a sensitivity and specificity for correct treatment assignment of 99.6% and 97.1%, respectively, in the validation cohorts. However, 81% of the population required CRF-FRAX tests, and 37% required BMD-FRAX tests to achieve this accuracy. Using gSOS in prescreening and limiting further assessment to those with a low gSOS resulted in small changes to the sensitivity and specificity (93.4% and 98.5%, respectively), but the proportions of individuals requiring CRF-FRAX tests and BMD-FRAX tests were reduced by 37% and 41%, respectively. Study limitations include a reliance on cohorts of predominantly European ethnicity and use of a proxy of fracture risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the use of a polygenic risk score in fracture risk screening could decrease the number of individuals requiring screening tests, including BMD measurement, while maintaining a high sensitivity and specificity to identify individuals who should be recommended an intervention.

An analytic approach for interpretable predictive models in high-dimensional data in the presence of interactions with exposures.

Predicting a phenotype and understanding which variables improve that prediction are two very challenging and overlapping problems in the analysis of high-dimensional (HD) data such as those arising from genomic and brain imaging studies. It is often believed that the number of truly important predictors is small relative to the total number of variables, making computational approaches to variable selection and dimension reduction extremely important. To reduce dimensionality, commonly used two-step methods first cluster the data in some way, and build models using cluster summaries to predict the phenotype. It is known that important exposure variables can alter correlation patterns between clusters of HD variables, that is, alter network properties of the variables. However, it is not well understood whether such altered clustering is informative in prediction. Here, assuming there is a binary exposure with such network-altering effects, we explore whether the use of exposure-dependent clustering relationships in dimension reduction can improve predictive modeling in a two-step framework. Hence, we propose a modeling framework called ECLUST to test this hypothesis, and evaluate its performance through extensive simulations. With ECLUST, we found improved prediction and variable selection performance compared to methods that do not consider the environment in the clustering step, or to methods that use the original data as features. We further illustrate this modeling framework through the analysis of three data sets from very different fields, each with HD data, a binary exposure, and a phenotype of interest. Our method is available in the eclust CRAN package.

Widespread epigenomic, transcriptomic and proteomic differences between hip osteophytic and articular chondrocytes in osteoarthritis.

Objectives: To identify molecular differences between chondrocytes from osteophytic and articular cartilage tissue from OA patients. Methods: We investigated genes and pathways by combining genome-wide DNA methylation, RNA sequencing and quantitative proteomics in isolated primary chondrocytes from the cartilaginous layer of osteophytes and matched areas of low- and high-grade articular cartilage across nine patients with OA undergoing hip replacement surgery. Results: Chondrocytes from osteophytic cartilage showed widespread differences to low-grade articular cartilage chondrocytes. These differences were similar to, but more pronounced than, differences between chondrocytes from osteophytic and high-grade articular cartilage, and more pronounced than differences between high- and low-grade articular cartilage. We identified 56 genes with significant differences between osteophytic chondrocytes and low-grade articular cartilage chondrocytes on all three omics levels. Several of these genes have known roles in OA, including ALDH1A2 and cartilage oligomeric matrix protein, which have functional genetic variants associated with OA from genome-wide association studies. An integrative gene ontology enrichment analysis showed that differences between osteophytic and low-grade articular cartilage chondrocytes are associated with extracellular matrix organization, skeletal system development, platelet aggregation and regulation of ERK1 and ERK2 cascade. Conclusion: We present a first comprehensive view of the molecular landscape of chondrocytes from osteophytic cartilage as compared with articular cartilage chondrocytes from the same joints in OA. We found robust changes at genes relevant to chondrocyte function, providing insight into biological processes involved in osteophyte development and thus OA progression.

Deep Learning and Multimodal Artificial Intelligence in Orthopaedic Surgery.

This review article focuses on the applications of deep learning with neural networks and multimodal neural networks in the orthopaedic domain. By providing practical examples of how artificial intelligence (AI) is being applied successfully in orthopaedic surgery, particularly in the realm of imaging data sets and the integration of clinical data, this study aims to provide orthopaedic surgeons with the necessary tools to not only evaluate existing literature but also to consider AI's potential in their own clinical or research pursuits. We first review standard deep neural networks which can analyze numerical clinical variables, then describe convolutional neural networks which can analyze image data, and then introduce multimodal AI models which analyze various types of different data. Then, we contrast these deep learning techniques with related but more limited techniques such as radiomics, describe how to interpret deep learning studies, and how to initiate such studies at your institution. Ultimately, by empowering orthopaedic surgeons with the knowledge and know-how of deep learning, this review aspires to facilitate the translation of research into clinical practice, thereby enhancing the efficacy and precision of real-world orthopaedic care for patients.

Reporting of Participant Demographics in Clinical Trials Published in General Radiology Journals.

OBJECTIVES: The reporting of research participant demographics provides insights into study generalizability. Our study aimed to determine the frequency at which participant age, sex/gender, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status (SES) are reported and used for subgroup analyses in radiology randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and their secondary analyses; as well as the study characteristics associated with, and the classification systems used for demographics reporting. METHODS: RCTs and their secondary analyses published in 8 leading radiology journals between 2013 and 2021 were included. Associations between study characteristics and demographic reporting were tested with the chi-square goodness of fit test for categorical variables, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test for impact factor, and logistic regression for publication year. RESULTS: Among 432 included articles, 89.4% (386) reported age, 90.3% (390) sex/gender, 5.6% (24) race/ethnicity, and 3.0% (13) SES. Among articles that reported these demographics and were not specific to a subgroup, results were analyzed by age in 14.2% (55/386), sex/gender in 19.4% (66/340), race/ethnicity in 13.6% (3/22), and SES in 46.2% (6/13). Journal, impact factor, and last author continent were predictors of race/ethnicity and SES reporting. Funding was associated with race/ethnicity reporting. No study reported sex and gender separately, or documented transgender, nonbinary gender spectrum or intersex participants. A single category for race/ethnicity was used in 37.5% (9/24) of studies, consisting of either "White" or "Caucasian." CONCLUSION: The reporting of participant demographics in radiology trials is variable and not always representative of the population diversity. Editorial guidelines on the reporting and analysis of participant demographics could help standardize practices.

Variable selection for individualised treatment rules with discrete outcomes.

An individualised treatment rule (ITR) is a decision rule that aims to improve individuals' health outcomes by recommending treatments according to subject-specific information. In observational studies, collected data may contain many variables that are irrelevant to treatment decisions. Including all variables in an ITR could yield low efficiency and a complicated treatment rule that is difficult to implement. Thus, selecting variables to improve the treatment rule is crucial. We propose a doubly robust variable selection method for ITRs, and show that it compares favourably with competing approaches. We illustrate the proposed method on data from an adaptive, web-based stress management tool.

A multimodal neural network with gradient blending improves predictions of survival and metastasis in sarcoma.

The objective of this study is to develop a multimodal neural network (MMNN) model that analyzes clinical variables and MRI images of a soft tissue sarcoma (STS) patient, to predict overall survival and risk of distant metastases. We compare the performance of this MMNN to models based on clinical variables alone, radiomics models, and an unimodal neural network. We include patients aged 18 or older with biopsy-proven STS who underwent primary resection between January 1st, 2005, and December 31st, 2020 with complete outcome data and a pre-treatment MRI with both a T1 post-contrast sequence and a T2 fat-sat sequence available. A total of 9380 MRI slices containing sarcomas from 287 patients are available. Our MMNN accepts the entire 3D sarcoma volume from T1 and T2 MRIs and clinical variables. Gradient blending allows the clinical and image sub-networks to optimally converge without overfitting. Heat maps were generated to visualize the salient image features. Our MMNN outperformed all other models in predicting overall survival and the risk of distant metastases. The C-Index of our MMNN for overall survival is 0.77 and the C-Index for risk of distant metastases is 0.70. The provided heat maps demonstrate areas of sarcomas deemed most salient for predictions. Our multimodal neural network with gradient blending improves predictions of overall survival and risk of distant metastases in patients with soft tissue sarcoma. Future work enabling accurate subtype-specific predictions will likely utilize similar end-to-end multimodal neural network architecture and require prospective curation of high-quality data, the inclusion of genomic data, and the involvement of multiple centers through federated learning.

Socioeconomic factors impact the risk of HIV acquisition in the township population of South Africa: A Bayesian analysis.

With a prevalence almost twice as high as the national average, people living in South African townships are particularly impacted by the HIV epidemic. Yet, it remains unclear how socioeconomic factors impact the risk of HIV infection within township populations. Our objective was to estimate the extent to which socioeconomic factors (dwelling situation, education, employment status, and monthly income) explain the risk of HIV in South African township populations, after controlling for behavioural and individual risk factors. Using Bayesian logistic regression, we analysed secondary data from a quasi-randomised trial which recruited participants (N = 3095) from townships located across three subdistricts of Cape Town. We controlled for individual factors (age, sex, marital status, testing history, HIV exposure, comorbidities, and tuberculosis infection) and behavioural factors (unprotected sex, sex with multiple partners, with sex workers, with a partner living with HIV, under the influence of alcohol or drugs), and accounted for the uncertainty due to missing data through multiple imputation. We found that residing in informal dwellings and not having post-secondary education increased the odds of HIV (aOR, 89% CrI: 1.34, 1.07-1.68 and 1.82, 1.29-2.61, respectively), after controlling for subdistrict of residence, individual, and behavioural factors. Additionally, our results suggest different pathways for how socioeconomic status (SES) affect HIV infection in males and female participants: while socioeconomic factors associated with lower SES seem to be associated with a decreased likelihood of having recently sough HIV testing among male participants, they are associated with increased sexual risk taking which, among female participants, increase the risk of HIV. Our analyses demonstrate that social determinants of health are at the root of the HIV epidemic and affect the risk of HIV in multiple ways. These findings stress the need for the deployment of programs that specifically address social determinants of health.

Development and Evaluation of a Digital HIV Risk Assessment Tool Incorporated Within an App-Based Self-Testing Program.

BACKGROUND: Low-risk perception is an important barrier to the utilization of HIV services. In this context, offering an online platform for people to assess their risk of HIV and inform their decision to test can be impactful in increasing testing uptake. Using secondary data from the HIVSmart! quasirandomized trial, we aimed to identify predictors of HIV, develop a risk staging model for South African township populations, and validate it in combination with the HIVSmart! digital self-testing program. SETTING: Townships in Cape Town, South Africa. METHODS: Using Bayesian predictive projection, we identified predictors of HIV and constructed a risk assessment model that we validated in external data. RESULTS: Our analyses included 3095 participants from the HIVSmart! trial. We identified a model of 5 predictors (being unmarried, HIV testing history, having had sex with a partner living with HIV, dwelling situation, and education) that performed best during external validation (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 89% credible intervals: 0.71, 0.68 to 0.72). The sensitivity of our HIV risk staging model was 91.0% (89.1% to 92.7%) and the specificity was 13.2% (8.5% to 19.8%) but increased when combined with a digital HIV self-testing program, the specificity was 91.6% (95.9% to 96.4%) and sensitivity remained similar at 90.9% (89.1% to 92.6%). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first validated digital HIV risk assessment tool developed for South African township populations and the first study to evaluate the added value of a risk assessment tool with an app-based HIV self-testing program. Study findings are relevant for application of digital programs to improve utilization of HIV testing services.

Novel insights into systemic sclerosis using a sensitive computational method to analyze whole-genome bisulfite sequencing data.

BACKGROUND: Abnormal DNA methylation is thought to contribute to the onset and progression of systemic sclerosis. Currently, the most comprehensive assay for profiling DNA methylation is whole-genome bisulfite sequencing (WGBS), but its precision depends on read depth and it may be subject to sequencing errors. SOMNiBUS, a method for regional analysis, attempts to overcome some of these limitations. Using SOMNiBUS, we re-analyzed WGBS data previously analyzed using bumphunter, an approach that initially fits single CpG associations, to contrast DNA methylation estimates by both methods. METHODS: Purified CD4+ T lymphocytes of 9 SSc and 4 control females were sequenced using WGBS. We separated the resulting sequencing data into regions with dense CpG data, and differentially methylated regions (DMRs) were inferred with the SOMNiBUS region-level test, adjusted for age. Pathway enrichment analysis was performed with ingenuity pathway analysis (IPA). We compared the results obtained by SOMNiBUS and bumphunter. RESULTS: Of 8268 CpG regions of ≥ 60 CpGs eligible for analysis with SOMNiBUS, we identified 131 DMRs and 125 differentially methylated genes (DMGs; p-values less than Bonferroni-corrected threshold of 6.05-06 controlling family-wise error rate at 0.05; 1.6% of the regions). In comparison, bumphunter identified 821,929 CpG regions, 599 DMRs (of which none had ≥ 60 CpGs) and 340 DMGs (q-value of 0.05; 0.04% of all regions). The top ranked gene identified by SOMNiBUS was FLT4, a lymphangiogenic orchestrator, and the top ranked gene on chromosome X was CHST7, known to catalyze the sulfation of glycosaminoglycans in the extracellular matrix. The top networks identified by IPA included connective tissue disorders. CONCLUSIONS: SOMNiBUS is a complementary method of analyzing WGBS data that enhances biological insights into SSc and provides novel avenues of investigation into its pathogenesis.