Frequentist and Bayesian approaches for food allergen risk assessment: risk outcome and uncertainty comparisons.

Peer-reviewed probabilistic methods already predict the probability of an allergic reaction resulting from an accidental exposure to food allergens, however, the methods calculate it in different ways. The available methods utilize the same three major input parameters in the risk model: the risk is estimated from the amount of food consumed, the concentration of allergen in the contaminated product and the distribution of thresholds among allergic persons. However, consensus is lacking about the optimal method to estimate the risk of allergic reaction and the associated uncertainty. This study aims to compare estimation of the risk of allergic reaction and associated uncertainty using different methods and suggest improvements. Four cases were developed based on the previous publications and the risk estimations were compared. The risk estimation was found to agree within 0.5% with the different simulation cases. Finally, an uncertainty analysis method is also presented in order to evaluate the uncertainty propagation from the input parameters to the risk.

Collagen turnover profiles in chronic kidney disease.

Renal fibrosis is a hallmark of chronic kidney disease (CKD) caused by an imbalance between formation and degradation of extracellular matrix proteins. We investigated the collagen turnover profile of 81 non-dialysis CKD stage 2-5 patients by measuring peptides reflecting formation and degradation of collagen type (COL) I, III, IV, and VI. Based on the collagen turnover profile, we identified four clusters of patients. Cluster 1 contained one patient with prostate cancer, who had a distinct collagen turnover. The other clusters generally had severe (Cluster 2), moderate (Cluster 4), or mild CKD (Cluster 3). Cluster 4 patients were characterized by higher levels of COL III, COL IV, and COL VI (all p < 0.001) degradation fragments in plasma, while patients in Clusters 2 and 4 had higher levels of COL VI formation (p < 0.05). COL IV fragments in plasma were lower in Cluster 2 (p < 0.01). Urinary COL III fragments decreased from Cluster 3 to 4, and from Cluster 4 to 2 (both p < 0.001). We show that patients with similar kidney function have a different collagen remodeling profile, suggesting that different phenotypes exist with different disease activity and potentially disease progression. Biomarkers of collagen remodeling could provide additional information to traditional markers of renal function.

Food groups for allergen risk assessment: Combining food consumption data from different countries in Europe.

To prevent allergic reactions, food producers have to be able to make a knowledge based decision on whether to label their products with precautionary labelling. As many manufactured food products are sold in different countries across Europe, the allergen risk assessment should be estimated at the European levels. As currently, there are no pan-European food data suitable for food allergy risk assessment. The aim of this paper is to investigate if consumption data, at a meal level, from National Food Consumption Surveys, can be combined to form a common Food Consumption database. In this first attempt we developed a procedure to investigate, if national food consumption data can be combined and grouped using data from Netherlands, France and Denmark. The homogeneity of consumption patterns and the relevance of difference in risk of allergic reaction were compared, using a fixed framework of allergen concentration levels and threshold distribution. Thus, the relevance of using common consumption data across countries was verified. The food groups formed were subsequently evaluated and adjusted based on practical considerations. It resulted in designing 61 food groups that can be used for allergen risk assessment. The summary statistics and descriptive names for each food group are included.