The pandemic of 1918 and the heart disease epidemic in middle-aged men and women in the United States.

Members of birth cohorts who were alive in 1918 and survived the influenza pandemic were likely to have been "primed" for heart disease in later life. We examine the hypothesis that the twentieth-century heart disease epidemic was a cohort effect reflecting the changing susceptibility composition of the population.We estimated heart disease death rates by single years of age for cohorts born in 1860-1949. We prepared age-specific rates for calendar years 1900-2016, as well as age-standardized cohort and calendar year rates.Males born in 1880-1919 contributed 90 per cent to 100 per cent of all heart disease deaths among males aged 40-64 from 1940 to 1959, when the heart disease epidemic was at its peak. There was no heart disease epidemic among females aged 40-64. Death from heart disease in females tends to occur at older ages.Cigarette smoking, unemployment, and other factors may have played a role in the heart disease epidemic in men and would have interacted with injury from influenza, but our results suggest that having been alive at the time of the 1918 influenza pandemic probably played an important role.

Proximity to point sources of environmental mercury release as a predictor of autism prevalence.

The objective of this study was to determine if proximity to sources of mercury pollution in 1998 were related to autism prevalence in 2002. Autism count data from the Texas Educational Agency and environmental mercury release data from the Environmental Protection Agency were used. We found that for every 1000 pounds of industrial release, there was a corresponding 2.6% increase in autism rates (p<.05) and a 3.7% increase associated with power plant emissions(P<.05). Distances to these sources were independent predictors after adjustment for relevant covariates. For every 10 miles from industrial or power plant sources, there was an associated decreased autism Incident Risk of 2.0% and 1.4%, respectively (p<.05). While design limitations preclude interpretation of individual risk, further investigations of environmental risks to child development issues are warranted.

A cohort study of tuberculosis and influenza mortality in the twentieth century.

We reviewed period and cohort mortality for tuberculosis and influenza and pneumonia over the twentieth century and data on the roles of influenza and tuberculosis as underlying and contributory causes of death. As would be consistent with long-term trends, each cohort had lower tuberculosis mortality but there was no decisive downturn in age specific tuberculosis mortality for any male cohort until after 1945. Tuberculosis mortality among females fell steadily from cohort to cohort as well as within each cohort. In every cohort born from around 1890 to around 1930, tuberculosis mortality was higher among women than among men at ages under 30, suggesting that prevalence in women was also higher, but death rates of females crossed under those of males at about age 30. Tuberculosis death rates rose more for males than females around 1918; however, any unusual increase that could be attributable to the 1918 influenza pandemic must have been brief. Contrary to expectations in the medical community, tuberculosis mortality did not rise following the 1918 influenza pandemic. Some portion of the rise in death rates around 1918 may have been associated with the influenza, but a comparison of the increase in male tuberculosis mortality during and after World War II, when there was no influenza pandemic, with male mortality in a similar period during and after World War I suggests that any excess in tuberculosis mortality among males in both periods may have been due to wartime mobilization rather than influenza.

School district resources and identification of children with autistic disorder.

OBJECTIVES: We estimated the effect of community and school district resources on the identification of children with autistic disorder. METHODS: Latent growth curve regression models were applied to school district-level data from one large state. RESULTS: The rate of identification of autistic disorder increased on average by 1.0 child per 10000 per year (P<.001), with statistically significant district variation. After adjustment for district and community characteristics, each increase in decile of school revenue was associated with an increase of 0.16 per 10000 children identified with autistic disorder. The proportion of economically disadvantaged children per district was inversely associated with autistic disorder cases. CONCLUSIONS: District revenue was associated with higher proportions of children identified with autistic disorder at baseline and increasing rates of identification when measured longitudinally. Economically disadvantaged communities may need assistance to identify children with autistic spectrum disorders and other developmental delays that require attention.