Clinical prediction models for treatment outcomes in newly diagnosed epilepsy: A systematic review.

Up to 35% of individuals diagnosed with epilepsy continue to have seizures despite treatment, commonly referred to as drug-resistant epilepsy. Uncontrolled seizures can directly, or indirectly, negatively impact an individual's quality of life. To inform clinical management and life decisions, it is important to be able to predict the likelihood of seizure control. Those likely to achieve seizure control will be able to return sooner to their usual work and leisure activities and require less follow-up, whereas those with a poor prognosis will need more frequent clinical attendance and earlier consideration of epilepsy surgery. This is a systematic review aimed at identifying demographic, clinical, physiological (e.g., electroencephalographic), and imaging (e.g., magnetic resonance imaging) factors that may be predictive of treatment outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed epilepsy (NDE). MEDLINE and Embase were searched for prediction models of treatment outcomes in patients with NDE. Study characteristics were extracted and subjected to assessment of risk of bias (and applicability concerns) using the PROBAST (Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool) tool. Baseline variables associated with treatment outcomes are reported as prognostic factors. After screening, 48 models were identified in 32 studies, which generally scored low for concerns of applicability, but universally scored high for susceptibility to bias. Outcomes reported fit broadly into four categories: drug resistance, short-term treatment response, seizure remission, and mortality. Prognostic factors were also heterogenous, but the predictors that were commonly significantly associated with outcomes were those related to seizure characteristics/types, epilepsy history, and age at onset. Antiseizure medication response was often included as a baseline variable, potentially obscuring other factor relationships at baseline. Currently, outcome prediction models for NDE demonstrate a high risk of bias. Model development could be improved with a stronger adherence to recommended TRIPOD (Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis) practices. Furthermore, we outline actionable changes to common practices that are intended to improve the overall quality of prediction model development in NDE.

Remote myocardial fibrosis predicts adverse outcome in patients with myocardial infarction on clinical cardiac magnetic resonance imaging.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) most commonly occurs in patients who have had a myocardial infarction (MI), but factors other than MI size may be deterministic. Fibrosis of myocardium remote from the MI is associated with adverse remodelling. We aimed to i) Investigate the association between remote myocardial fibrosis, measured using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) extracellular volume (ECV), and HF and death following MI, ii) Identify predictors of remote myocardial fibrosis in patients with evidence of MI, and determine the relationship with infarct size. METHODS: Multicentre prospective cohort study of 1,199 consecutive patients undergoing CMR with evidence of MI on late gadolinium enhancement. Median follow-up 1,133 (895-1,442) days. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to identify factors predictive of the primary outcome, a composite of first hospitalisation for HF (HHF) or all-cause mortality, post-CMR. Linear regression modelling was used to identify determinants of remote ECV. RESULTS: Remote myocardial fibrosis was a strong predictor of primary outcome (χ2: 15.6, HR: 1.07 per 1% increase in ECV, 95% CI: 1.04-1.11, p<0.001), and was separately predictive of both HHF and death. The strongest predictors of remote ECV were diabetes, sex, natriuretic peptides, and body mass index, but, despite extensive phenotyping, the adjusted model R2 was only 0.283. The relationship between infarct size and remote fibrosis was very weak. CONCLUSIONS: Myocardial fibrosis, measured using CMR ECV, is a strong predictor of HHF and death in patients with evidence of MI. The mechanisms underlying remote myocardial fibrosis formation post-MI remain poorly understood, but factors other than infarct size appear to be important.

'Knowledge exchange' workshops to optimise development of a risk prediction tool to assist conveyance decisions for suspected seizures - Part of the Risk of ADverse Outcomes after a Suspected Seizure (RADOSS) project.

PURPOSE: Suspected seizures present challenges for ambulance services, with paramedics reporting uncertainty over whether or not to convey individuals to emergency departments. The Risk of ADverse Outcomes after a Suspected Seizure (RADOSS) project aims to address this by developing a risk assessment tool utilizing structured patient care record and dispatch data. It proposes a tool that would provide estimates of an individual's likelihood of death and/or recontact with emergency care within 3 days if conveyed compared to not conveyed, and the likelihood of an 'avoidable attendance' occurring if conveyed. Knowledge Exchange workshops engaged stakeholders to resolve key design uncertainties before model derivation. METHOD: Six workshops involved 26 service users and their significant others (epilepsy or nonepileptic attack disorder), and 25 urgent and emergency care clinicians from different English ambulance regions. Utilizing Nominal Group Techniques, participants shared views of the proposed tool, benefits and concerns, suggested predictors, critiqued outcome measures, and expressed functionality preferences. Data were analysed using Hamilton's Rapid Analysis. RESULTS: Stakeholders supported tool development, proposing 10 structured variables for predictive testing. Emphasis was placed on the tool supporting, not dictating, care decisions. Participants highlighted some reasons why RADOSS might struggle to derive a predictive model based on structured data alone and suggested some non-structured variables for future testing. Feedback on prediction timeframes for service recontact was received, along with advice on amending the 'avoidable attendance' definition to prevent the tool's predictions being undermined by potential overuse of certain investigations in hospital. CONCLUSION: Collaborative stakeholder engagement provided crucial insights that can guide RADOSS to develop a user-aligned, optimized tool.

Prognosis of adults and children following a first unprovoked seizure.

BACKGROUND: Epilepsy is clinically defined as two or more unprovoked epileptic seizures more than 24 hours apart. Given that, a diagnosis of epilepsy can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality, it is imperative that clinicians (and people with seizures and their relatives) have access to accurate and reliable prognostic estimates, to guide clinical practice on the risks of developing further unprovoked seizures (and by definition, a diagnosis of epilepsy) following single unprovoked epileptic seizure. OBJECTIVES: 1. To provide an accurate estimate of the proportion of individuals going on to have further unprovoked seizures at subsequent time points following a single unprovoked epileptic seizure (or cluster of epileptic seizures within a 24-hour period, or a first episode of status epilepticus), of any seizure type (overall prognosis). 2. To evaluate the mortality rate following a first unprovoked epileptic seizure. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the following databases on 19 September 2019 and again on 30 March 2021, with no language restrictions. The Cochrane Register of Studies (CRS Web), MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to March 29, 2021), SCOPUS (1823 onwards), ClinicalTrials.gov, the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP). CRS Web includes randomized or quasi-randomized, controlled trials from PubMed, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and the Specialized Registers of Cochrane Review Groups including Epilepsy. In MEDLINE (Ovid) the coverage end date always lags a few days behind the search date. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included studies, both retrospective and prospective, of all age groups (except those in the neonatal period (< 1 month of age)), of people with a single unprovoked seizure, followed up for a minimum of six months, with no upper limit of follow-up, with the study end point being seizure recurrence, death, or loss to follow-up. To be included, studies must have included at least 30 participants. We excluded studies that involved people with seizures that occur as a result of an acute precipitant or provoking factor, or in close temporal proximity to an acute neurological insult, since these are not considered epileptic in aetiology (acute symptomatic seizures). We also excluded people with situational seizures, such as febrile convulsions. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors conducted the initial screening of titles and abstracts identified through the electronic searches, and removed non-relevant articles. We obtained the full-text articles of all remaining potentially relevant studies, or those whose relevance could not be determined from the abstract alone and two authors independently assessed for eligibility. All disagreements were resolved through discussion with no need to defer to a third review author. We extracted data from included studies using a data extraction form based on the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematicreviews of prediction modelling studies (CHARMS). Two review authors then appraised the included studies, using a standardised approach based on the quality in prognostic studies (QUIPS) tool, which was adapted for overall prognosis (seizure recurrence). We conducted a meta-analysis using Review Manager 2014, with a random-effects generic inverse variance meta-analysis model, which accounted for any between-study heterogeneity in the prognostic effect. We then summarised the meta-analysis by the pooled estimate (the average prognostic factor effect), its 95% confidence interval (CI), the estimates of I² and Tau² (heterogeneity), and a 95% prediction interval for the prognostic effect in a single population at three various time points, 6 months, 12 months and 24 months. Subgroup analysis was performed according to the ages of the cohorts included; studies involving all ages, studies that recruited adult only and those that were purely paediatric. MAIN RESULTS: Fifty-eight studies (involving 54 cohorts), with a total of 12,160 participants (median 147, range 31 to 1443), met the inclusion criteria for the review. Of the 58 studies, 26 studies were paediatric studies, 16 were adult and the remaining 16 studies were a combination of paediatric and adult populations. Most included studies had a cohort study design with two case-control studies and one nested case-control study. Thirty-two studies (29 cohorts) reported a prospective longitudinal design whilst 15 studies had a retrospective design whilst the remaining studies were randomised controlled trials. Nine of the studies included presented mortality data following a first unprovoked seizure. For a mortality study to be included, a proportional mortality ratio (PMR) or a standardised mortality ratio (SMR) had to be given at a specific time point following a first unprovoked seizure. To be included in the meta-analysis a study had to present clear seizure recurrence data at 6 months, 12 months or 24 months. Forty-six studies were included in the meta-analysis, of which 23 were paediatric, 13 were adult, and 10 were a combination of paediatric and adult populations. A meta-analysis was performed at three time points; six months, one year and two years for all ages combined, paediatric and adult studies, respectively. We found an estimated overall seizure recurrence of all included studies at six months of 27% (95% CI 24% to 31%), 36% (95% CI 33% to 40%) at one year and 43% (95% CI 37% to 44%) at two years, with slightly lower estimates for adult subgroup analysis and slightly higher estimates for paediatric subgroup analysis. It was not possible to provide a summary estimate of the risk of seizure recurrence beyond these time points as most of the included studies were of short follow-up and too few studies presented recurrence rates at a single time point beyond two years. The evidence presented was found to be of moderate certainty. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Despite the limitations of the data (moderate-certainty of evidence), mainly relating to clinical and methodological heterogeneity we have provided summary estimates for the likely risk of seizure recurrence at six months, one year and two years for both children and adults. This provides information that is likely to be useful for the clinician counselling patients (or their parents) on the probable risk of further seizures in the short-term whilst acknowledging the paucity of long-term recurrence data, particularly beyond 10 years.

IVIg-exposure and thromboembolic event risk: findings from the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Arterial and venous thromboembolic events (TEEs) have been associated with intravenous Ig use, but the risk has been poorly quantified. We aimed to calculate the risk of TEEs associated with exposure to intravenous Ig. METHODS: We included participants from UK Biobank recruited over 3 years, data extracted September 2020.The study endpoints were incidence of myocardial infarction, other acute ischaemic heart disease, stroke, pulmonary embolism and other venous embolism and thrombosis.Predictors included known TEE risk factors: age, sex, hypertension, smoking status, type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolaemia, cancer and past history of TEE. Intravenous Ig and six other predictors were added in the sensitivity analysis.Information from participants was collected prospectively, while data from linked resources, including death, cancer, hospital admissions and primary care records were collected retrospectively and prospectively.  FINDINGS: 14 794 of 502 492 individuals had an incident TEE during the study period. The rate of incident events was threefold higher in those with prior history of TEE (8 .7%) than those without previous history of TEE (3.0%).In the prior TEE category, intravenous Ig exposure was independently associated with increased risk of incident TEE (OR=3.69 (95% CI 1.15 to 11.92), p=0.03) on multivariate analysis. The number needed to harm by exposure to intravenous Ig in those with a history of TEE was 5.8 (95% CI 2.3 to 88.3).Intravenous Ig exposure did not increase risk of TEE in those with no previous history of TEE. INTERPRETATION: Intravenous Ig is associated with increased risk of further TEE in individuals with prior history of an event with one further TEE for every six people exposed. In practice, this will influence how clinicians consent for and manage overall TEE risk on intravenous Ig exposure.

Reappraisal of the Medical Research Council Antiepileptic Drug Withdrawal Study: Contamination-adjusted and dose-response re-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The 1991 Medical Research Council (MRC) Study compared seizure relapse for seizure-free patients randomized to withdraw vs continue of antiseizure medications (ASMs). We re-analyzed this trial to account for crossover between arms using contamination-adjusted intention to treat (CA ITT) methods, to explore dose-response curves, and to validate predictions against external data. ITT assesses the effect of being randomized to withdraw, as-treated analysis assesses the confounded effect of withdrawing, but CA ITT assesses the unconfounded effect of actually withdrawing. METHODS: CA ITT involves two stages. First, we used randomized arm to predict whether patients withdrew their ASM (logistic) or total daily ASM dose (linear). Second, we used those values to predict seizure occurrence (logistic). RESULTS: The trial randomized 503 patients to withdraw and 501 patients to continue ASMs. We found that 316 of 376 patients (88%) who were randomized to withdraw decreased their dose at every pre-seizure visit, compared with 35 of 424 (8%) who were randomized to continue (p < .01). Adjusted odds ratios of a 2-year seizure for those who withdrew vs those who did not was 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.9-1.9) in the as-treated analysis, 2.5 (95% CI 1.9-3.4) comparing those randomized to withdraw vs continue for ITT, and 3.1 (95% CI 2.1-4.5) for CA ITT. Probabilities (withdrawal vs continue) were 28% vs 24% (as-treated), 40% vs 22% (ITT), and 43% vs 21% (CA ITT). Differences between ITT and CA ITT were greater when varying the predictor (reaching zero ASMs) or outcome (1-year seizures). As-treated dose-response curves demonstrated little to no effects, but larger effects in CA ITT analysis. MRC data overpredicted risk in Lossius data, with moderate discrimination (areas under the curve ~0.70). SIGNIFICANCE: CA ITT results (the effect of actually withdrawing ASMs on seizures) were slightly greater than ITT effects (the effect of recommend withdrawing ASMs on seizures). How these findings affect clinical practice must be individualized.

The prognostic and diagnostic significance of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in hepatocellular carcinoma: a prospective controlled study.

BACKGROUND: The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), a presumed measure of the balance between neutrophil-associated pro-tumour inflammation and lymphocyte-dependent antitumour immune function, has been suggested as a prognostic factor for several cancers, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: In this study, a prospectively accrued cohort of 781 patients (493 HCC and 288 chronic liver disease (CLD) without HCC) were followed-up for more than 6 years. NLR levels between HCC and CLD patients were compared, and the effect of baseline NLR on overall survival amongst HCC patients was assessed via multivariable Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: On entry into the study ('baseline'), there was no clinically significant difference in the NLR values between CLD and HCC patients. Amongst HCC patients, NLR levels closest to last visit/death were significantly higher compared to baseline. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that NLR was an independent prognostic factor, even after adjustment for the HCC stage. CONCLUSION: NLR is a significant independent factor influencing survival in HCC patients, hence offering an additional dimension in prognostic models.

Improved survival prediction and comparison of prognostic models for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib.

BACKGROUND: The 'Prediction Of Survival in Advanced Sorafenib-treated HCC' (PROSASH) model addressed the heterogeneous survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with sorafenib in clinical trials but requires validation in daily clinical practice. This study aimed to validate, compare and optimize this model for survival prediction. METHODS: Patients treated with sorafenib for HCC at five tertiary European centres were retrospectively staged according to the PROSASH model. In addition, the optimized PROSASH-II model was developed using the data of four centres (training set) and tested in an independent dataset. These models for overall survival (OS) were then compared with existing prognostic models. RESULTS: The PROSASH model was validated in 445 patients, showing clear differences between the four risk groups (OS 16.9-4.6 months). A total of 920 patients (n = 615 in training set, n = 305 in validation set) were available to develop PROSASH-II. This optimized model incorporated fewer and less subjective parameters: the serum albumin, bilirubin and alpha-foetoprotein, and macrovascular invasion, extrahepatic spread and largest tumour size on imaging. Both PROSASH and PROSASH-II showed improved discrimination (C-index 0.62 and 0.63, respectively) compared with existing prognostic scores (C-index ≤0.59). CONCLUSIONS: In HCC patients treated with sorafenib, individualized prediction of survival and risk group stratification using baseline prognostic and predictive parameters with the PROSASH model was validated. The refined PROSASH-II model performed at least as good with fewer and more objective parameters. PROSASH-II can be used as a tool for tailored treatment of HCC in daily practice and to define pre-planned subgroups for future studies.

Modelling seizure rates rather than time to an event within clinical trials of antiepileptic drugs.

BACKGROUND: Predictive models within epilepsy are frequently developed via Cox's proportional hazards models. These models estimate risk of a specified event such as 12-month remission. They are relatively simple to produce, have familiar output, and are useful to answer questions about short-term prognosis. However, the Cox model only considers time to first event rather than all seizures after starting treatment for example. This makes assessing change in seizure rates over time difficult. Variants to the Cox model exist enabling recurrent events to be modelled. One such variant is the Prentice, Williams and Peterson - Total Time (PWP-TT) model. An alternative is the negative binomial model for event counts. This study aims to demonstrate the differences between the three approaches, and to consider the benefits of the PWP-TT approach for assessing change in seizure rates over time. METHODS: Time to 12-month remission and time to first seizure after randomisation were modelled using the Cox model. Risk of seizure recurrence was modelled using the PWP-TT model, including all seizures across the whole follow-up period. Seizure counts were modelled using negative binomial regression. Differences between the approaches were demonstrated using participants recruited to the UK-based multi-centre Standard versus New Antiepileptic Drug (SANAD) study. RESULTS: Results from the PWP-TT model were similar to those from the conventional Cox and negative binomial models. In general, the direction of effect was consistent although the variables included in the models and the significance of the predictors varied. The confidence intervals obtained via the PWP-TT model tended to be narrower due to the increase in statistical power of the model. CONCLUSIONS: The Cox model is useful for determining the initial response to treatment and potentially informing when the next intervention may be required. The negative binomial model is useful for modelling event counts. The PWP-TT model extends the Cox model to all included events. This is useful in determining the longer-term effects of treatment policy. Such a model should be considered when designing future clinical trials in medical conditions typified by recurrent events to improve efficiency and statistical power as well as providing evidence regarding changes in event rates over time.

A systematic review of methodology used in the development of prediction models for future asthma exacerbation.

BACKGROUND: Clinical prediction models are widely used to guide medical advice and therapeutic interventions. Asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases globally and is characterised by acute deteriorations. These exacerbations are largely preventable, so there is interest in using clinical prediction models in this area. The objective of this review was to identify studies which have developed such models, determine whether consistent and appropriate methodology was used and whether statistically reliable prognostic models exist. METHODS: We searched online databases MEDLINE (1948 onwards), CINAHL Plus (1937 onwards), The Cochrane Library, Web of Science (1898 onwards) and ClinicalTrials.gov, using index terms relating to asthma and prognosis. Data was extracted and assessment of quality was based on GRADE and an early version of PROBAST (Prediction study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool). A meta-analysis of the discrimination and calibration measures was carried out to determine overall performance across models. RESULTS: Ten unique prognostic models were identified. GRADE identified moderate risk of bias in two of the studies, but more detailed quality assessment via PROBAST highlighted that most models were developed using highly selected and small datasets, incompletely recorded predictors and outcomes, and incomplete methodology. None of the identified models modelled recurrent exacerbations, instead favouring either presence/absence of an event, or time to first or specified event. Preferred methodologies were logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression. The overall pooled c-statistic was 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.73 to 0.80), though individually some models performed no better than chance. The meta-analysis had an I2 value of 99.75% indicating a high amount of heterogeneity between studies. The majority of studies were small and did not include internal or external validation, therefore the individual performance measures are likely to be optimistic. CONCLUSIONS: Current prognostic models for asthma exacerbations are heterogeneous in methodology, but reported c-statistics suggest a clinically useful model could be created. Studies were consistent in lacking robust validation and in not modelling serial events. Further research is required with respect to incorporating recurrent events, and to externally validate tools in large representative populations to demonstrate the generalizability of published results.

Predictors of severe asthma attack re-attendance in Ecuadorian children: a cohort study.

Asthma is a common cause of emergency care attendance in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While few prospective studies of predictors for emergency care attendance have been undertaken in high-income countries, none have been performed in a LMIC.We followed a cohort of 5-15-year-old children treated for asthma attacks in emergency rooms of public health facilities in Esmeraldas City, Ecuador. We collected blood and nasal wash samples, and performed spirometry and exhaled nitric oxide fraction measurements. We explored potential predictors for recurrence of severe asthma attacks requiring emergency care over 6 months' follow-up.We recruited 283 children of whom 264 (93%) were followed-up for ≥6 months or until their next asthma attack. Almost half (46%) had a subsequent severe asthma attack requiring emergency care. Predictors of recurrence in adjusted analyses were (adjusted OR, 95% CI) younger age (0.87, 0.79-0.96 per year), previous asthma diagnosis (2.2, 1.2-3.9), number of parenteral corticosteroid courses in previous year (1.3, 1.1-1.5), food triggers (2.0, 1.1-3.6) and eczema diagnosis (4.2, 1.02-17.6). A parsimonious Cox regression model included the first three predictors plus urban residence as a protective factor (adjusted hazard ratio 0.69, 95% CI 0.50-0.95). Laboratory and lung function tests did not predict recurrence.Factors independently associated with recurrent emergency attendance for asthma attacks were identified in a low-resource LMIC setting. This study suggests that a simple risk-assessment tool could potentially be created for emergency rooms in similar settings to identify higher-risk children on whom limited resources might be better focused.

An apparent paradox: resistance mutations in HIV-1 DNA predict improved virological responses to antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, detecting resistance-associated mutations (RAMs) at failure of first-line ART with two NRTIs plus an NNRTI predicts improved virological responses to second-line therapy with two NRTIs plus a ritonavir-boosted PI (PI/r). This indicates residual NRTI activity in the presence of RAMs, although additional factors may contribute to the effect. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of pre-existing RAMs on the outcomes of maintenance monotherapy with ritonavir-boosted darunavir within a randomized trial in Cameroon. METHODS: RAMs were detected in HIV-1 DNA using PBMCs collected at initiation of darunavir/ritonavir monotherapy. Adherence was assessed by pill count and visual analogue scale (VAS). Predictors of virological failure (confirmed or last available viral load >400 copies/mL) were explored by logistic regression analysis. Trial name = MANET (NCT02155101). RESULTS: After NNRTI-based therapy, participants (n = 81) had received PI/r-based therapy for a median of 3.2 years and had a confirmed viral load <60 copies/mL and a median CD4 count of 466 cells/mm3. NRTI and NNRTI RAMs were detected in 39/60 (65.0%) and 41/60 (68.3%) HIV-1 DNA sequences, respectively. Over 48 weeks of monotherapy, 16/81 (19.8%) patients experienced virological failure. After adjusting for age, HIV-1 DNA load, adherence by VAS and RAM status, virological failure was less likely with higher VAS-measured adherence (adjusted OR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01-0.37; P = 0.004) and detectable HIV-1 DNA RAMs (adjusted OR 0.15, 95% CI 0.03-0.82; P = 0.028). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-existing NRTI and NNRTI RAMs are associated with improved virological responses to NRTI-sparing ART in sub-Saharan Africa, indicating a predictive effect that is independent of residual NRTI activity.

Identifying patients who will not reachieve remission after breakthrough seizures.

OBJECTIVE: We aim to identify people with epilepsy who are unlikely to reachieve a 12-month remission within 2 years after experiencing a breakthrough seizure following an initial 12-month remission. METHODS: We apply a novel longitudinal discriminant approach to data from the Standard and New Antiepileptic Drugs study to dynamically predict the risk of a patient not achieving a second remission after a breakthrough seizure by combining both baseline covariates (collected at the time of breakthrough seizure) and follow-up data. RESULTS: The model classifies 83% of patients. Of these, 73% of patients (95% confidence interval [CI] = 58%-88%) who did not achieve a second remission were correctly identified (sensitivity), and 84% of patients (95% CI = 69%-96%) who achieved a second remission were correctly identified (specificity). The area under the curve from our model was 87% (95% CI = 80%-94%). Patients who did not achieve a second remission were correctly identified on average after 10 months of observation postbreakthrough. Occurrence of seizures after breakthrough and the number of seizures experienced were the most informative longitudinal variables. These longitudinal profiles were influenced by the following baseline covariates: age at breakthrough seizure, presence of neurological insult, and number of antiepileptic drugs required to achieve first remission. SIGNIFICANCE: Using longitudinal data gathered during patient follow-up allows more accurate predictions than using baseline covariates in a standard Cox model. The model developed in this paper is a useful first step in developing a tool for identifying patients who develop drug resistance after an initial remission.

Effectiveness of Protease Inhibitor/Nucleos(t)ide Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor-Based Second-line Antiretroviral Therapy for the Treatment of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Infection in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Background: In sub-Saharan Africa, 25.5 million people are living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), representing 70% of the global total. The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) is projected to increase in the next decade in keeping with the expansion of treatment provision. Outcome data are required to inform policy. Methods: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting the virological outcomes of protease inhibitor (PI)-based second-line ART in sub-Saharan Africa. The primary outcome was virological suppression (HIV-1 RNA <400 copies/mL) after 48 and 96 weeks of treatment. The secondary outcome was the proportion of patients with PI resistance. Pooled aggregate data were analyzed using a DerSimonian-Laird random effects model. Results: By intention-to-treat analysis, virological suppression occurred in 69.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 58.2%-79.3%) of patients at week 48 (4558 participants, 14 studies), and in 61.5% (95% CI, 47.2%-74.9%) at week 96 (2145 participants, 8 studies). Preexisting resistance to nucleos(t)ide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) increased the likelihood of virological suppression. Major protease resistance mutations occurred in a median of 17% (interquartile range, 0-25%) of the virological failure population and increased with duration of second-line ART. Conclusions: One-third of patients receiving PI-based second-line ART with continued NRTI use in sub-Saharan Africa did not achieve virological suppression, although among viremic patients, protease resistance was infrequent. Significant challenges remain in implementation of viral load monitoring. Optimizing definitions and strategies for management of second-line ART failure is a research priority. Prospero Registration: CRD42016048985.

Linezolid pharmacokinetics in MDR-TB: a systematic review, meta-analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.

Objectives: The oxazolidinone linezolid is an effective component of drug-resistant TB treatment, but its use is limited by toxicity and the optimum dose is uncertain. Current strategies are not informed by clinical pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) data; we aimed to address this gap. Methods: We defined linezolid PK/PD targets for efficacy (fAUC0-24:MIC >119 mg/L/h) and safety (fCmin <1.38 mg/L). We extracted individual-level linezolid PK data from existing studies on TB patients and performed meta-analysis, producing summary estimates of fAUC0-24 and fCmin for published doses. Combining these with a published MIC distribution, we performed Monte Carlo simulations of target attainment. Results: The efficacy target was attained in all simulated individuals at 300 mg q12h and 600 mg q12h, but only 20.7% missed the safety target at 300 mg q12h versus 98.5% at 600 mg q12h. Although suggesting 300 mg q12h should be used preferentially, these data were reliant on a single centre. Efficacy and safety targets were missed by 41.0% and 24.2%, respectively, at 300 mg q24h and by 44.6% and 27.5%, respectively, at 600 mg q24h. However, the confounding effect of between-study heterogeneity on target attainment for q24h regimens was considerable. Conclusions: Linezolid dosing at 300 mg q12h may retain the efficacy of the 600 mg q12h licensed dosing with improved safety. Data to evaluate commonly used 300 mg q24h and 600 mg q24h doses are limited. Comprehensive, prospectively obtained PK/PD data for linezolid doses in drug-resistant TB treatment are required.

Comparing the Efficacy of Drug Regimens for Pulmonary Tuberculosis: Meta-analysis of Endpoints in Early-Phase Clinical Trials.

Background: A systematic review of early clinical outcomes in tuberculosis was undertaken to determine ranking of efficacy of drugs and combinations, define variability of these measures on different endpoints, and to establish the relationships between them. Methods: Studies were identified by searching PubMed, Medline, Embase, LILACS (Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature), and reference lists of included studies. Outcomes were early bactericidal activity results over 2, 7, and 14 days, and the proportion of patients with negative culture at 8 weeks. Results: One hundred thirty-three trials reporting phase 2A (early bactericidal activity) and phase 2B (culture conversion at 2 months) outcomes were identified. Only 9 drug combinations were assessed on >1 phase 2A endpoint and only 3 were assessed in both phase 2A and 2B trials. Conclusions: The existing evidence base supporting phase 2 methodology in tuberculosis is highly incomplete. In future, a broader range of drugs and combinations should be more consistently studied across a greater range of phase 2 endpoints.

Dynamic classification using credible intervals in longitudinal discriminant analysis.

Recently developed methods of longitudinal discriminant analysis allow for classification of subjects into prespecified prognostic groups using longitudinal history of both continuous and discrete biomarkers. The classification uses Bayesian estimates of the group membership probabilities for each prognostic group. These estimates are derived from a multivariate generalised linear mixed model of the biomarker's longitudinal evolution in each of the groups and can be updated each time new data is available for a patient, providing a dynamic (over time) allocation scheme. However, the precision of the estimated group probabilities differs for each patient and also over time. This precision can be assessed by looking at credible intervals for the group membership probabilities. In this paper, we propose a new allocation rule that incorporates credible intervals for use in context of a dynamic longitudinal discriminant analysis and show that this can decrease the number of false positives in a prognostic test, improving the positive predictive value. We also establish that by leaving some patients unclassified for a certain period, the classification accuracy of those patients who are classified can be improved, giving increased confidence to clinicians in their decision making. Finally, we show that determining a stopping rule dynamically can be more accurate than specifying a set time point at which to decide on a patient's status. We illustrate our methodology using data from patients with epilepsy and show how patients who fail to achieve adequate seizure control are more accurately identified using credible intervals compared to existing methods.

Ablation index, a novel marker of ablation lesion quality: prediction of pulmonary vein reconnection at repeat electrophysiology study and regional differences in target values.

AIMS: Force-Time Integral (FTI) is commonly used as a marker of ablation lesion quality during pulmonary vein isolation (PVI), but does not incorporate power. Ablation Index (AI) is a novel lesion quality marker that utilizes contact force, time, and power in a weighted formula. Furthermore, only a single FTI target value has been suggested despite regional variation in left atrial wall thickness. We aimed to study AI's and FTI's relationships with PV reconnection at repeat electrophysiology study, and regional threshold values that predicted no reconnection. METHODS AND RESULTS: Forty paroxysmal atrial fibrillation patients underwent contact force-guided PVI, and the minimum and mean AI and FTI values for each segment were identified according to a 12-segment model. All patients underwent repeat electrophysiology study at 2 months, regardless of symptoms, to identify sites of PV reconnection. Late PV reconnection was seen in 53 (11%) segments in 25 (62%) patients. Reconnected segments had significantly lower minimum AI [308 (252-336) vs. 373 (323-423), P < 0.0001] and FTI [137 (92-182) vs. 228 (157-334), P < 0.0001] compared with non-reconnected segments. Minimum AI and FTI were both independently predictive, but AI had a smaller P value. Higher minimum AI and FTI values were required to avoid reconnection in anterior/roof segments than for posterior/inferior segments (P < 0.0001). No reconnection was seen where the minimum AI value was ≥370 for posterior/inferior segments and ≥480 for anterior/roof segments. CONCLUSION: The minimum AI value in a PVI segment is independently predictive of reconnection of that segment at repeat electrophysiology study. Higher AI and FTI values are required for anterior/roof segments than for posterior/inferior segments to prevent reconnection.

Non-tumour bone marrow lymphocytes correlate with improved overall survival in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

Composition of tumour immune cell infiltrates correlates with response to treatment and overall survival (OS) in several cancer settings. We retrospectively examined immune cells present in diagnostic bone marrow aspirates from paediatric patients with B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. Our analysis identified a sub-group (∼30% of patients) with >2.37% CD20 and >6.05% CD7 expression, which had 100% OS, and a sub-group (∼30% of patients) with ≤2.37% CD20 and ≤6.05% CD7 expression at increased risk of treatment failure (66.7% OS, P < 0.05). Immune cell infiltrate at diagnosis may predict treatment response and could provide a means to enhance immediate treatment risk stratification.

Liver Fibrosis by Transient Elastography and Virologic Outcomes After Introduction of Tenofovir in Lamivudine-Experienced Adults With HIV and Hepatitis B Virus Coinfection in Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs in sub-Saharan Africa have for many years included lamivudine as the sole hepatitis B virus (HBV) inhibitor. Long-term outcomes and the effects of introducing tenofovir as part of ART in these populations have not been characterized. METHODS: The study comprised a cross-sectional analysis of 106 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HBV-coinfected subjects maintained on lamivudine, as well as a prospective analysis of 76 lamivudine-experienced subjects who introduced tenofovir. Patients underwent assessment of liver fibrosis by transient elastography (TE) and testing to characterize HIV type 1 (HIV-1) and HBV replication. RESULTS: After a median of 45 months of lamivudine treatment, HIV-1 RNA and HBV DNA were detectable in 35 of 106 (33.0%) and 54 of 106 (50.9%) subjects, respectively, with corresponding drug resistance rates of 17 of 106 (16.0%) and 31 of 106 (29.2%), respectively. Median TE values were 5.7 kPa (interquartile range, 4.7-7.2 kPa) and independently associated with HBV DNA load, aspartate aminotransferase levels, and platelet counts; 13 of 106 (12.3%) subjects had TE measurements >9.4 kPa. Twelve months after the first assessment, and a median of 7.8 months after introducing tenofovir, HBV DNA levels declined by a mean of 1.5 log10 IU/mL (P < .001). TE values changed by a mean of -0.2 kPa (P = .097), and declined significantly in subjects who had pretenofovir HBV DNA levels >2000 IU/mL (mean, -0.8 kPa; P = .048) or TE values >7.6 kPa (mean, -1.2 kPa; P = .021). HIV-1 RNA detection rates remained unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: A proportion of HIV/HBV-coinfected patients on long-term lamivudine-containing ART had poor HIV and HBV suppression, drug resistance, and TE values indicative of advanced liver fibrosis. Tenofovir improved HBV control and reduced liver stiffness in subjects with high HBV DNA load and TE values.