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Lassa fever virus (LASV) is the causative agent of Lassa fever, a disease endemic in West Africa. Exploring the relationships between environmental factors and LASV transmission across ecologically diverse regions can provide crucial information for the design of appropriate interventions and disease monitoring. We investigated LASV exposure in 2 ecologically diverse regions of Guinea. Our results showed that exposure to LASV was heterogenous between and within sites. LASV IgG seropositivity was 11.9% (95% CI 9.7%-14.5%) in a coastal study site in Basse-Guinée, but it was 59.6% (95% CI 55.5%-63.5%) in a forested study site located in Guinée Forestière. Seropositivity increased with age in the coastal site. We also found significant associations between exposure risk for LASV and landscape fragmentation in coastal and forested regions. Our study highlights the potential link between environmental change and LASV emergence and the urgent need for research on land management practices that reduce disease risks.
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Fiebre de Lassa , Humanos , Fiebre de Lassa/epidemiología , Guinea/epidemiología , Virus Lassa , África OccidentalRESUMEN
Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex infectious disease characterized by high inflammation, multiorgan failure, the dysregulation of innate and adaptive immune responses, and coagulation abnormalities. Evidence accumulated over the last 2 decades indicates that, during fatal EVD, the infection of antigen-presenting cells (APC) and the dysregulation of T cell immunity preclude a successful transition between innate and adaptive immunity, which constitutes a key disease checkpoint. In order to better understand the contribution of the APC-T cell crosstalk to EVD pathophysiology, we have developed avatar mice transplanted with human, donor-specific APCs and T cells. Here, we show that the transplantation of T cells and APCs from Ebola virus (EBOV)-naive individuals into avatar mice results in severe disease and death and that this phenotype is dependent on T cell receptor (TCR)-major histocompatibility complex (MCH) recognition. Conversely, avatar mice were rescued from death induced by EBOV infection after the transplantation of both T cells and plasma from EVD survivors. These results strongly suggest that protection from EBOV reinfection requires both cellular and humoral immune memory responses. IMPORTANCE The crosstalk between dendritic cells and T cells marks the transition between innate and adaptive immune responses, and it constitutes an important checkpoint in EVD. In this study, we present a mouse avatar model in which T cell and dendritic cell interactions from a specific donor can be studied during EVD. Our findings indicate that T cell receptor-major histocompatibility complex-mediated T cell-dendritic cell interactions are associated with disease severity, which mimics the main features of severe EVD in these mice. Resistance to an EBOV challenge in the model was achieved via the transplantation of both survivor T cells and plasma.
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Comunicación Celular , Células Dendríticas , Ebolavirus , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola , Animales , Comunicación Celular/inmunología , Células Dendríticas/inmunología , Ebolavirus/inmunología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/inmunología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/fisiopatología , Humanos , Ratones , Sobrevivientes , Linfocitos T/inmunología , Linfocitos T/virologíaRESUMEN
The Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa is the largest on record, responsible for over 28,599 cases and more than 11,299 deaths. Genome sequencing in viral outbreaks is desirable to characterize the infectious agent and determine its evolutionary rate. Genome sequencing also allows the identification of signatures of host adaptation, identification and monitoring of diagnostic targets, and characterization of responses to vaccines and treatments. The Ebola virus (EBOV) genome substitution rate in the Makona strain has been estimated at between 0.87 × 10(-3) and 1.42 × 10(-3) mutations per site per year. This is equivalent to 16-27 mutations in each genome, meaning that sequences diverge rapidly enough to identify distinct sub-lineages during a prolonged epidemic. Genome sequencing provides a high-resolution view of pathogen evolution and is increasingly sought after for outbreak surveillance. Sequence data may be used to guide control measures, but only if the results are generated quickly enough to inform interventions. Genomic surveillance during the epidemic has been sporadic owing to a lack of local sequencing capacity coupled with practical difficulties transporting samples to remote sequencing facilities. To address this problem, here we devise a genomic surveillance system that utilizes a novel nanopore DNA sequencing instrument. In April 2015 this system was transported in standard airline luggage to Guinea and used for real-time genomic surveillance of the ongoing epidemic. We present sequence data and analysis of 142 EBOV samples collected during the period March to October 2015. We were able to generate results less than 24 h after receiving an Ebola-positive sample, with the sequencing process taking as little as 15-60 min. We show that real-time genomic surveillance is possible in resource-limited settings and can be established rapidly to monitor outbreaks.
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Ebolavirus/genética , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Genoma Viral/genética , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/virología , Análisis de Secuencia de ADN/instrumentación , Análisis de Secuencia de ADN/métodos , Aeronaves , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Ebolavirus/clasificación , Ebolavirus/patogenicidad , Guinea/epidemiología , Humanos , Mutagénesis/genética , Tasa de Mutación , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
West Africa is currently witnessing the most extensive Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak so far recorded. Until now, there have been 27,013 reported cases and 11,134 deaths. The origin of the virus is thought to have been a zoonotic transmission from a bat to a two-year-old boy in December 2013 (ref. 2). From this index case the virus was spread by human-to-human contact throughout Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. However, the origin of the particular virus in each country and time of transmission is not known and currently relies on epidemiological analysis, which may be unreliable owing to the difficulties of obtaining patient information. Here we trace the genetic evolution of EBOV in the current outbreak that has resulted in multiple lineages. Deep sequencing of 179 patient samples processed by the European Mobile Laboratory, the first diagnostics unit to be deployed to the epicentre of the outbreak in Guinea, reveals an epidemiological and evolutionary history of the epidemic from March 2014 to January 2015. Analysis of EBOV genome evolution has also benefited from a similar sequencing effort of patient samples from Sierra Leone. Our results confirm that the EBOV from Guinea moved into Sierra Leone, most likely in April or early May. The viruses of the Guinea/Sierra Leone lineage mixed around June/July 2014. Viral sequences covering August, September and October 2014 indicate that this lineage evolved independently within Guinea. These data can be used in conjunction with epidemiological information to test retrospectively the effectiveness of control measures, and provides an unprecedented window into the evolution of an ongoing viral haemorrhagic fever outbreak.
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Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Ebolavirus/genética , Evolución Molecular , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/virología , Filogenia , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Sustitución de Aminoácidos/genética , Ebolavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Femenino , Guinea/epidemiología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/transmisión , Secuenciación de Nucleótidos de Alto Rendimiento , Humanos , Liberia/epidemiología , Masculino , Malí/epidemiología , Datos de Secuencia Molecular , Sierra Leona/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: A unit of the European Mobile Laboratory (EMLab) consortium was deployed to the Ebola virus disease (EVD) treatment unit in Guéckédou, Guinea, from March 2014 through March 2015. METHODS: The unit diagnosed EVD and malaria, using the RealStar Filovirus Screen reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) kit and a malaria rapid diagnostic test, respectively. RESULTS: The cleaned EMLab database comprised 4719 samples from 2741 cases of suspected EVD from Guinea. EVD was diagnosed in 1231 of 2178 hospitalized patients (57%) and in 281 of 563 who died in the community (50%). Children aged <15 years had the highest proportion of Ebola virus-malaria parasite coinfections. The case-fatality ratio was high in patients aged <5 years (80%) and those aged >74 years (90%) and low in patients aged 10-19 years (40%). On admission, RT-PCR analysis of blood specimens from patients who died in the hospital yielded a lower median cycle threshold (Ct) than analysis of blood specimens from survivors (18.1 vs 23.2). Individuals who died in the community had a median Ct of 21.5 for throat swabs. Multivariate logistic regression on 1047 data sets revealed that low Ct values, ages of <5 and ≥45 years, and, among children aged 5-14 years, malaria parasite coinfection were independent determinants of a poor EVD outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Virus load, age, and malaria parasite coinfection play a role in the outcome of EVD.
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Ebolavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Epidemias , Infecciones por Filoviridae/diagnóstico , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/diagnóstico , Malaria/complicaciones , Unidades Móviles de Salud , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Niño , Preescolar , Servicios de Laboratorio Clínico , Ebolavirus/genética , Femenino , Filoviridae , Infecciones por Filoviridae/complicaciones , Infecciones por Filoviridae/virología , Guinea , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/complicaciones , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/virología , Humanos , Lactante , Malaria/parasitología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , ARN Viral/sangre , Carga Viral , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a highly lethal condition for which no specific treatment has proven efficacy. In September 2014, while the Ebola outbreak was at its peak, the World Health Organization released a short list of drugs suitable for EVD research. Favipiravir, an antiviral developed for the treatment of severe influenza, was one of these. In late 2014, the conditions for starting a randomized Ebola trial were not fulfilled for two reasons. One was the perception that, given the high number of patients presenting simultaneously and the very high mortality rate of the disease, it was ethically unacceptable to allocate patients from within the same family or village to receive or not receive an experimental drug, using a randomization process impossible to understand by very sick patients. The other was that, in the context of rumors and distrust of Ebola treatment centers, using a randomized design at the outset might lead even more patients to refuse to seek care. Therefore, we chose to conduct a multicenter non-randomized trial, in which all patients would receive favipiravir along with standardized care. The objectives of the trial were to test the feasibility and acceptability of an emergency trial in the context of a large Ebola outbreak, and to collect data on the safety and effectiveness of favipiravir in reducing mortality and viral load in patients with EVD. The trial was not aimed at directly informing future guidelines on Ebola treatment but at quickly gathering standardized preliminary data to optimize the design of future studies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Inclusion criteria were positive Ebola virus reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) test, age ≥ 1 y, weight ≥ 10 kg, ability to take oral drugs, and informed consent. All participants received oral favipiravir (day 0: 6,000 mg; day 1 to day 9: 2,400 mg/d). Semi-quantitative Ebola virus RT-PCR (results expressed in "cycle threshold" [Ct]) and biochemistry tests were performed at day 0, day 2, day 4, end of symptoms, day 14, and day 30. Frozen samples were shipped to a reference biosafety level 4 laboratory for RNA viral load measurement using a quantitative reference technique (genome copies/milliliter). Outcomes were mortality, viral load evolution, and adverse events. The analysis was stratified by age and Ct value. A "target value" of mortality was defined a priori for each stratum, to guide the interpretation of interim and final analysis. Between 17 December 2014 and 8 April 2015, 126 patients were included, of whom 111 were analyzed (adults and adolescents, ≥13 y, n = 99; young children, ≤6 y, n = 12). Here we present the results obtained in the 99 adults and adolescents. Of these, 55 had a baseline Ct value ≥ 20 (Group A Ct ≥ 20), and 44 had a baseline Ct value < 20 (Group A Ct < 20). Ct values and RNA viral loads were well correlated, with Ct = 20 corresponding to RNA viral load = 7.7 log10 genome copies/ml. Mortality was 20% (95% CI 11.6%-32.4%) in Group A Ct ≥ 20 and 91% (95% CI 78.8%-91.1%) in Group A Ct < 20. Both mortality 95% CIs included the predefined target value (30% and 85%, respectively). Baseline serum creatinine was ≥110 µmol/l in 48% of patients in Group A Ct ≥ 20 (≥300 µmol/l in 14%) and in 90% of patients in Group A Ct < 20 (≥300 µmol/l in 44%). In Group A Ct ≥ 20, 17% of patients with baseline creatinine ≥110 µmol/l died, versus 97% in Group A Ct < 20. In patients who survived, the mean decrease in viral load was 0.33 log10 copies/ml per day of follow-up. RNA viral load values and mortality were not significantly different between adults starting favipiravir within <72 h of symptoms compared to others. Favipiravir was well tolerated. CONCLUSIONS: In the context of an outbreak at its peak, with crowded care centers, randomizing patients to receive either standard care or standard care plus an experimental drug was not felt to be appropriate. We did a non-randomized trial. This trial reaches nuanced conclusions. On the one hand, we do not conclude on the efficacy of the drug, and our conclusions on tolerance, although encouraging, are not as firm as they could have been if we had used randomization. On the other hand, we learned about how to quickly set up and run an Ebola trial, in close relationship with the community and non-governmental organizations; we integrated research into care so that it improved care; and we generated knowledge on EVD that is useful to further research. Our data illustrate the frequency of renal dysfunction and the powerful prognostic value of low Ct values. They suggest that drug trials in EVD should systematically stratify analyses by baseline Ct value, as a surrogate of viral load. They also suggest that favipiravir monotherapy merits further study in patients with medium to high viremia, but not in those with very high viremia. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02329054.
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Amidas/uso terapéutico , Antivirales/uso terapéutico , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/tratamiento farmacológico , Pirazinas/uso terapéutico , Adolescente , Adulto , Niño , Preescolar , Ebolavirus/genética , Estudios de Factibilidad , Femenino , Guinea , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/diagnóstico , Estudio Históricamente Controlado , Humanos , Lactante , Masculino , ARN Viral/sangre , Reacción en Cadena de la Polimerasa de Transcriptasa Inversa , Terapias en Investigación , Resultado del Tratamiento , Carga Viral , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001967.].
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BACKGROUND: Reliable reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-based diagnosis of Ebola virus infection currently requires a blood sample obtained by intravenous puncture. During the current Ebola outbreak in Guinea, we evaluated the usability of capillary blood samples collected from fingersticks of patients suspected of having Ebola virus disease (EVD) for field diagnostics during an outbreak emergency. METHODS: A total of 120 venous and capillary blood samples were collected from 53 patients admitted to the Ebola Treatment Centre in Guéckédou, Guinea, between July and August 2014. All sample specimens were analyzed by RT-PCR using the RealStar Filovirus Screen RT-PCR Kit 1.0 from altona Diagnostics (Germany). We compared samples obtained by venipuncture and those obtained by capillary blood sampling absorbed onto swab devices. RESULTS: The resulting sensitivity and specificity of tests performed with capillary blood samples were 86.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 71.9%-95.6%; 33/38 patients) and 100% (95% CI, 84.6%-100%; 22/22 patients), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that capillary blood samples could serve as an alternative to venous blood samples for the diagnosis of EVD in resource-limited settings during a crisis. This can be of particular advantage in cases when venipuncture is difficult to perform-for example, with newborns and infants or when adult patients reject venipuncture for cultural or religious reasons.
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Recolección de Muestras de Sangre/métodos , Brotes de Enfermedades , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/diagnóstico , ARN Viral/sangre , Reacción en Cadena de la Polimerasa de Transcriptasa Inversa/métodos , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Recolección de Muestras de Sangre/normas , Niño , Preescolar , Urgencias Médicas , Estudios de Factibilidad , Femenino , Guinea , Humanos , Lactante , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Reacción en Cadena de la Polimerasa de Transcriptasa Inversa/normas , Sensibilidad y Especificidad , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
The last seven years have seen the greatest surge of Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases in equatorial Africa, including the 2013-2016 epidemic in West Africa and the recent epidemics in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The vaccine clinical trials that took place in West Africa and the DRC, as well as follow-up studies in collaboration with EVD survivor communities, have for the first time allowed researchers to compare immune memory induced by natural infection and vaccination. These comparisons may be relevant to evaluate the putative effectiveness of vaccines and candidate medical countermeasures such as convalescent plasma transfer. In this study, we compared the long-term functionality of anti-EBOV glycoprotein (GP) antibodies from EVD survivors with that from volunteers who received the recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus vectored vaccine (rVSV-ZEBOV) during the Phase I clinical trial in Hamburg. Our study highlights important differences between EBOV vaccination and natural infection and provides a framework for comparison with other vaccine candidates.
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Anticuerpos Antivirales/inmunología , Vacunas contra el Virus del Ébola/inmunología , Ebolavirus/inmunología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/inmunología , Sobrevivientes , Adulto , Anticuerpos Neutralizantes/sangre , Anticuerpos Neutralizantes/inmunología , Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Vacunas contra el Virus del Ébola/administración & dosificación , Femenino , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/prevención & control , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/virología , Humanos , Inmunoglobulinas/sangre , Inmunoglobulinas/inmunología , Memoria Inmunológica , Masculino , Vacunación , Vesiculovirus/inmunología , Proteínas del Envoltorio Viral/inmunología , Carga ViralRESUMEN
Ebola virus (EBOV) is an enveloped, single-stranded RNA virus that can cause Ebola virus disease (EVD). It is thought that EVD survivors are protected against subsequent infection with EBOV and that neutralising antibodies to the viral surface glycoprotein (GP) are potential correlates of protection. Serological studies are vital to assess neutralising antibodies targeted to EBOV GP; however, handling of EBOV is limited to containment level 4 laboratories. Pseudotyped viruses can be used as alternatives to live viruses, which require high levels of bio-containment, in serological and viral entry assays. However, neutralisation capacity can differ among pseudotyped virus platforms. We evaluated the suitability of EBOV GP pseudotyped human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) and vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) to measure the neutralising ability of plasma from EVD survivors, when compared to results from a live EBOV neutralisation assay. The sensitivity, specificity and correlation with live EBOV neutralisation were greater for the VSV-based pseudotyped virus system, which is particularly important when evaluating EBOV vaccine responses and immuno-therapeutics. Therefore, the EBOV GP pseudotyped VSV neutralisation assay reported here could be used to provide a better understanding of the putative correlates of protection against EBOV.
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Anticuerpos Neutralizantes/inmunología , Ebolavirus/inmunología , VIH-1/inmunología , Vesiculovirus/inmunología , Proteínas del Envoltorio Viral/inmunología , Humanos , Pruebas de Neutralización , Tropismo Viral/inmunologíaRESUMEN
The family Arteriviridae harbors a rapidly expanding group of viruses known to infect a divergent group of mammals, including horses, pigs, possums, primates, and rodents. Hosts infected with arteriviruses present with a wide variety of (sub) clinical symptoms, depending on the virus causing the infection and the host being infected. In this study, we determined the complete genome sequences of three variants of a previously unknown virus found in Olivier's shrews (Crocidura olivieri guineensis) sampled in Guinea. On the nucleotide level, the three genomes of this new virus, named Olivier's shrew virus 1 (OSV-1), are 88-89% similar. The genome organization of OSV-1 is characteristic of all known arteriviruses, yet phylogenetic analysis groups OSV-1 separately from all currently established arterivirus lineages. Therefore, we postulate that OSV-1 represents a member of a novel arterivirus genus. The virus described here represents the first discovery of an arterivirus in members of the order Eulipotyphla, thereby greatly expanding the known host spectrum of arteriviruses.
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Arterivirus/genética , Genoma Viral/genética , Musarañas/sangre , Musarañas/virología , Animales , Arteriviridae , Arterivirus/aislamiento & purificación , Teorema de Bayes , Sistema de Lectura Ribosómico/genética , Guinea , Interacciones Microbiota-Huesped , Sistemas de Lectura Abierta/genética , Filogenia , Análisis de Secuencia de ARN , Secuenciación Completa del GenomaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: In 2014-2015, we assessed favipiravir tolerance and efficacy in patients with Ebola virus (EBOV) disease (EVD) in Guinea (JIKI trial). Because the drug had never been used before for this indication and that high concentrations of the drugs were needed to achieve antiviral efficacy against EBOV, a pharmacokinetic model had been used to propose relevant dosing regimen. Here we report the favipiravir plasma concentrations that were achieved in participants in the JIKI trial and put them in perspective with the model-based targeted concentrations. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Pre-dose drug concentrations were collected at Day-2 and Day-4 of treatment in 66 patients of the JIKI trial and compared to those predicted by the model taking into account patient's individual characteristics. At Day-2, the observed concentrations were slightly lower than the model predictions adjusted for patient's characteristics (median value of 46.1 versus 54.3 µg/mL for observed and predicted concentrations, respectively, p = 0.012). However, the concentrations dropped at Day-4, which was not anticipated by the model (median values of 25.9 and 64.4 µg/mL for observed and predicted concentrations, respectively, p<10-6). There was no significant relationship between favipiravir concentrations and EBOV viral kinetics or mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Favipiravir plasma concentrations in the JIKI trial failed to achieve the target exposure defined before the trial. Furthermore, the drug concentration experienced an unanticipated drop between Day-2 and Day-4. The origin of this drop could be due to severe sepsis conditions and/or to intrinsic properties of favipiravir metabolism. Dose-ranging studies should be performed in healthy volunteers to assess the concentrations and the tolerance that could be achieved with high doses. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02329054.
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Amidas/farmacocinética , Antivirales/farmacocinética , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/tratamiento farmacológico , Pirazinas/farmacocinética , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Amidas/administración & dosificación , Antivirales/administración & dosificación , Niño , Preescolar , Ebolavirus/efectos de los fármacos , Ebolavirus/fisiología , Femenino , Guinea , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/virología , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Pirazinas/administración & dosificación , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
In this study, samples from the 2013-2016 West African Ebola virus outbreak from patients in Guinea with Ebola virus disease (EVD) were analyzed to discover and classify what other pathogens were present. Throat swabs were taken from deceased EVD patients, and peripheral blood samples were analyzed that had been taken from patients when they presented at the treatment center with acute illness. High-throughput RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) and bioinformatics were used to identify the potential microorganisms. This approach confirmed Ebola virus (EBOV) in all samples from patients diagnosed as acute positive for the virus by quantitative reverse transcription-PCR in deployed field laboratories. Nucleic acid mapping to Plasmodium was also used on the patient samples, confirming results obtained with an antigen-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) conducted in the field laboratories. The data suggested that a high Plasmodium load, as determined by sequence read depth, was associated with mortality and influenced the host response, whereas a lower parasite load did not appear to affect outcome. The identifications of selected bacteria from throat swabs via RNA-seq were confirmed by culture. The data indicated that the potential pathogens identified in the blood samples were associated with translocation from the gut, suggesting the presence of bacteremia, which transcriptome data suggested may induce or aggravate the acute-phase response observed during EVD. Transcripts mapping to different viruses were also identified, including those indicative of lytic infections. The development of high-resolution analysis of samples from patients with EVD will help inform care pathways and the most appropriate general antimicrobial therapy to be used in a resource-poor setting. IMPORTANCE Our results highlight the identification of an array of pathogens in the blood of patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD). This has not been done before, and the data have important implications for the treatment of patients with EVD, particularly considering antibiotic stewardship. We show that EVD patients who were also infected with Plasmodium, particularly at higher loads, had more adverse outcomes than patients with lower levels of Plasmodium. However, the presence of Plasmodium did not influence the innate immune response, and it is likely that the presence of EBOV dominated this response. Several viruses other than EBOV were identified, and bacteria associated with sepsis were also identified. These findings were indicative of bacterial translocation across the gut during the acute phase of EVD.
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BACKGROUND: By January, 2016, all known transmission chains of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in west Africa had been stopped. However, there is concern about persistence of Ebola virus in the reproductive tract of men who have survived EVD. We aimed to use biostatistical modelling to describe the dynamics of Ebola virus RNA load in seminal fluid, including clearance parameters. METHODS: In this longitudinal study, we recruited men who had been discharged from three Ebola treatment units in Guinea between January and July, 2015. Participants provided samples of seminal fluid at follow-up every 3-6 weeks, which we tested for Ebola virus RNA using quantitative real-time RT-PCR. Representative specimens from eight participants were then inoculated into immunodeficient mice to test for infectivity. We used a linear mixed-effect model to analyse the dynamics of virus persistence in seminal fluid over time. FINDINGS: We enrolled 26 participants and tested 130 seminal fluid specimens; median follow up was 197 days (IQR 187-209 days) after enrolment, which corresponded to 255 days (228-287) after disease onset. Ebola virus RNA was detected in 86 semen specimens from 19 (73%) participants. Median duration of Ebola virus RNA detection was 158 days after onset (73-181; maximum 407 days at end of follow-up). Mathematical modelling of the quantitative time-series data showed a mean clearance rate of Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid of -0·58 log units per month, although the clearance kinetic varied greatly between participants. Using our biostatistical model, we predict that 50% and 90% of male survivors clear Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid at 115 days (90% prediction interval 72-160) and 294 days (212-399) after disease onset, respectively. We also predicted that the number of men positive for Ebola virus RNA in affected countries would decrease from about 50 in January 2016, to fewer than 1 person by July, 2016. Infectious virus was detected in 15 of 26 (58%) specimens tested in mice. INTERPRETATION: Time to clearance of Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid varies greatly between individuals and could be more than 13 months. Our predictions will assist in decision-making about surveillance and preventive measures in EVD outbreaks. FUNDING: This study was funded by European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, Directorate-General for International Cooperation and Development of the European Commission, Institut national de la santé et de la recherche médicale (INSERM), German Research Foundation (DFG), and Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking.