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BACKGROUND: Though Plasmodium vivax is the second most common malaria species to infect humans, it has not traditionally been considered a major human health concern in central Africa given the high prevalence of the human Duffy-negative phenotype that is believed to prevent infection. Increasing reports of asymptomatic and symptomatic infections in Duffy-negative individuals throughout Africa raise the possibility that P. vivax is evolving to evade host resistance, but there are few parasite samples with genomic data available from this part of the world. METHODS: Whole genome sequencing of one new P. vivax isolate from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) was performed and used in population genomics analyses to assess how this central African isolate fits into the global context of this species. RESULTS: Plasmodium vivax from DRC is similar to other African populations and is not closely related to the non-human primate parasite P. vivax-like. Evidence is found for a duplication of the gene PvDBP and a single copy of PvDBP2. CONCLUSION: These results suggest an endemic P. vivax population is present in central Africa. Intentional sampling of P. vivax across Africa would further contextualize this sample within African P. vivax diversity and shed light on the mechanisms of infection in Duffy negative individuals. These results are limited by the uncertainty of how representative this single sample is of the larger population of P. vivax in central Africa.
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Malaria Vivax , Malaria , Animales , Humanos , Plasmodium vivax/genética , Malaria Vivax/parasitología , África Central , Genómica , Sistema del Grupo Sanguíneo Duffy/genéticaRESUMEN
India reported >10 million coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To reassess reported deaths and estimate incidence rates during the first 6 months of the epidemic, we used a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission model fit to data from 3 serosurveys in Delhi and time-series documentation of reported deaths. We estimated 48.7% (95% credible interval 22.1%-76.8%) cumulative infection in the population through the end of September 2020. Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio based on age-specific estimates from mostly high-income countries, we estimated that just 15.0% (95% credible interval 9.3%-34.0%) of COVID-19 deaths had been reported, indicating either substantial underreporting or lower age-specific infection-fatality ratios in India than in high-income countries. Despite the estimated high attack rate, additional epidemic waves occurred in late 2020 and April-May 2021. Future dynamics will depend on the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity and their effectiveness against new variants.
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COVID-19 , Epidemias , Humanos , Incidencia , India/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Plasmodium ovale is an understudied malaria species prevalent throughout much of sub-Saharan Africa. Little is known about the distribution of ovale malaria and risk factors for infection in areas of high malaria endemicity. METHODS: Using the 2013 Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) Demographic and Health Survey, we conducted a risk factor analysis for P. ovale infections. We evaluated geographic clustering of infections and speciated to P. ovale curtisi and P. ovale wallikeri through deep sequencing. RESULTS: Of 18 149 adults tested, we detected 143 prevalent P. ovale infections (prevalence estimate 0.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], .59%-.98%). Prevalence ratios (PR) for significant risk factors were: male sex PRâ =â 2.12 (95% CI, 1.38-3.26), coprevalent P. falciparum PRâ =â 3.52 (95% CI, 2.06-5.99), and rural residence PRâ =â 2.19 (95% CI, 1.31-3.66). P. ovale was broadly distributed throughout the DRC; an elevated cluster of infections was detected in the south-central region. Speciation revealed P. ovale curtisi and P. ovale wallikeri circulating throughout the country. CONCLUSIONS: P. ovale persists broadly in the DRC, a high malaria burden country. For successful elimination of all malaria species, P. ovale needs to be on the radar of malaria control programs.
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Malaria , Plasmodium ovale , Adulto , República Democrática del Congo/epidemiología , Humanos , Malaria/epidemiología , PrevalenciaRESUMEN
Despite evidence that older children and adolescents bear the highest burden of malaria, large malaria surveys focus on younger children. We used polymerase chain reaction data from the 2013-2014 Demographic and Health Survey in the Democratic Republic of Congo (including children aged <5 years and adults aged ≥15 years) and a longitudinal study in Kinshasa Province (participants aged 6 months to 98 years) to estimate malaria prevalence across age strata. We fit linear models and estimated prevalences for each age category; adolescents aged 10-14 years had the highest prevalence. We estimate approximately 26 million polymerase chain reaction-detectable infections nationally. Adolescents and older children should be included in surveillance studies.
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Malaria , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Niño , Preescolar , Costo de Enfermedad , Estudios Transversales , República Democrática del Congo/epidemiología , Humanos , Lactante , Estudios Longitudinales , Malaria/epidemiología , Persona de Mediana Edad , Prevalencia , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
In a cross-sectional molecular study in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 78% of households had ≥1 member infected with Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, and/or Plasmodium ovale spp.; 47% of children and 33% of adults tested positive for ≥1 species. Risk factors varied by species and age group.
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Malaria Falciparum , Plasmodium ovale , Adulto , Niño , Estudios Transversales , República Democrática del Congo/epidemiología , Humanos , Malaria Falciparum/epidemiología , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Plasmodium ovale/genética , Plasmodium vivax , PrevalenciaRESUMEN
Atovaquone-proguanil remains effective against multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum in Southeast Asia, but resistance is mediated by a single point mutation in cytochrome b (cytb) that can arise during treatment. Among 14 atovaquone-proguanil treatment failures in a clinical trial in Cambodia, only one recrudescence harbored the cytb mutation Y268C. Deep sequencing did not detect the mutation at baseline or in the first 3 days of treatment, suggesting that it arose de novo Further sequencing across cytb similarly found no low-frequency cytb mutations that were up-selected from baseline to recrudescence. Copy number amplification in dihydroorotate dehydrogenase (DHODH) and cytb as markers of atovaquone tolerance was also absent. Cytb mutation played a minor role in atovaquone-proguanil treatment failures in an active comparator clinical trial.
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Antimaláricos , Malaria Falciparum , Naftoquinonas , Antimaláricos/uso terapéutico , Atovacuona/uso terapéutico , Cambodia , Citocromos b/genética , Combinación de Medicamentos , Humanos , Malaria Falciparum/tratamiento farmacológico , Naftoquinonas/uso terapéutico , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Proguanil/uso terapéuticoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. METHODS: We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine rollout. RESULTS: C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. CONCLUSIONS: Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.
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Vacunas contra la COVID-19/administración & dosificación , COVID-19/mortalidad , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/terapia , Humanos , Programas de Inmunización/métodos , Indonesia , SARS-CoV-2/inmunología , SARS-CoV-2/aislamiento & purificación , Síndrome , Vacunación/métodos , Vacunación/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries in Europe and the USA. This has led to substantial interest in their "test, trace, isolate" strategy. However, it is important to understand the epidemiological peculiarities of South Korea's outbreak and characterise their response before attempting to emulate these measures elsewhere. METHODS: We systematically extracted numbers of suspected cases tested, PCR-confirmed cases, deaths, isolated confirmed cases, and numbers of confirmed cases with an identified epidemiological link from publicly available data. We estimated the time-varying reproduction number, Rt, using an established Bayesian framework, and reviewed the package of interventions implemented by South Korea using our extracted data, plus published literature and government sources. RESULTS: We estimated that after the initial rapid growth in cases, Rt dropped below one in early April before increasing to a maximum of 1.94 (95%CrI, 1.64-2.27) in May following outbreaks in Seoul Metropolitan Region. By mid-June, Rt was back below one where it remained until the end of our study (July 13th). Despite less stringent "lockdown" measures, strong social distancing measures were implemented in high-incidence areas and studies measured a considerable national decrease in movement in late February. Testing the capacity was swiftly increased, and protocols were in place to isolate suspected and confirmed cases quickly; however, we could not estimate the delay to isolation using our data. Accounting for just 10% of cases, individual case-based contact tracing picked up a relatively minor proportion of total cases, with cluster investigations accounting for 66%. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst early adoption of testing and contact tracing is likely to be important for South Korea's successful outbreak control, other factors including regional implementation of strong social distancing measures likely also contributed. The high volume of testing and the low number of deaths suggest that South Korea experienced a small epidemic relative to other countries. Caution is needed in attempting to replicate the South Korean response in populations with larger more geographically widespread epidemics where finding, testing, and isolating cases that are linked to clusters may be more difficult.
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Betacoronavirus , Trazado de Contacto/métodos , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/prevención & control , Pandemias/prevención & control , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/prevención & control , Cuarentena/métodos , Teorema de Bayes , COVID-19 , Prueba de COVID-19 , Técnicas de Laboratorio Clínico , Trazado de Contacto/tendencias , Infecciones por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Humanos , Neumonía Viral/diagnóstico , Cuarentena/tendencias , República de Corea/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Tanzania's Zanzibar archipelago has made significant gains in malaria control over the last decade and is a target for malaria elimination. Despite consistent implementation of effective tools since 2002, elimination has not been achieved. Importation of parasites from outside of the archipelago is thought to be an important cause of malaria's persistence, but this paradigm has not been studied using modern genetic tools. METHODS: Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was used to investigate the impact of importation, employing population genetic analyses of Plasmodium falciparum isolates from both the archipelago and mainland Tanzania. Ancestry, levels of genetic diversity and differentiation, patterns of relatedness, and patterns of selection between these two populations were assessed by leveraging recent advances in deconvolution of genomes from polyclonal malaria infections. RESULTS: Significant decreases in the effective population sizes were inferred in both populations that coincide with a period of decreasing malaria transmission in Tanzania. Identity by descent analysis showed that parasites in the two populations shared long segments of their genomes, on the order of 5 cM, suggesting shared ancestry within the last 10 generations. Even with limited sampling, two of isolates between the mainland and Zanzibar were identified that are related at the expected level of half-siblings, consistent with recent importation. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that importation plays an important role for malaria incidence on Zanzibar and demonstrate the value of genomic approaches for identifying corridors of parasite movement to the island.
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Malaria Falciparum/prevención & control , Malaria Falciparum/parasitología , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Estudios de Cohortes , Demografía , Biblioteca de Genes , Variación Genética , Haploidia , Haplotipos , Humanos , Incidencia , Islas/epidemiología , Malaria Falciparum/epidemiología , Malaria Falciparum/transmisión , Mutación , Plasmodium falciparum/clasificación , Tanzanía/epidemiología , Viaje , Secuenciación Completa del GenomaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Drug resistant malaria is a growing concern in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where previous studies indicate that parasites resistant to sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine or chloroquine are spatially clustered. This study explores longitudinal changes in spatial patterns to understand how resistant malaria may be spreading within the DRC, using samples from nation-wide population-representative surveys. METHODS: We selected 552 children with PCR-detectable Plasmodium falciparum infection and identified known variants in the pfdhps and pfcrt genes associated with resistance. We compared the proportion of mutant parasites in 2013 to those previously reported from adults in 2007, and identified risk factors for carrying a resistant allele using multivariate mixed-effects modeling. Finally, we fit a spatial-temporal model to the observed data, providing smooth allele frequency estimates over space and time. RESULTS: The proportion of co-occurring pfdhps K540E/A581G mutations increased by 16% between 2007 and 2013. The spatial-temporal model suggests that the spatial range of the pfdhps double mutants expanded over time, while the prevalence and range of pfcrt mutations remained steady. CONCLUSIONS: This study uses population-representative samples to describe the changing landscape of SP resistance within the DRC, and the persistence of chloroquine resistance. Vigilant molecular surveillance is critical for controlling the spread of resistance.
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Antimaláricos/uso terapéutico , Resistencia a Medicamentos/efectos de los fármacos , Malaria Falciparum/tratamiento farmacológico , Plasmodium falciparum/efectos de los fármacos , Adolescente , Adulto , Alcohol Deshidrogenasa/genética , Cloroquina/uso terapéutico , Estudios Transversales , República Democrática del Congo/epidemiología , Combinación de Medicamentos , Resistencia a Medicamentos/genética , Frecuencia de los Genes , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Malaria Falciparum/epidemiología , Malaria Falciparum/parasitología , Proteínas de Transporte de Membrana/genética , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mutación , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Prevalencia , Proteínas Protozoarias/genética , Pirimetamina/uso terapéutico , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Sulfadoxina/uso terapéutico , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
The Zanzibar archipelago of Tanzania has become a low-transmission area for Plasmodium falciparum. Despite being considered an area of pre-elimination for years, achieving elimination has been difficult, likely due to a combination of imported infections from mainland Tanzania, and continued local transmission. To shed light on these sources of transmission, we applied highly multiplexed genotyping utilizing molecular inversion probes to characterize the genetic relatedness of 282 P. falciparum isolates collected across Zanzibar and in Bagamoyo District on the coastal mainland from 2016-2018. Overall, parasite populations on the coastal mainland and Zanzibar archipelago remain highly related. However, parasite isolates from Zanzibar exhibit population microstructure due to rapid decay of parasite relatedness over very short distances. This, along with highly related pairs within shehias, suggests ongoing low level local transmission. We also identified highly related parasites across shehias that reflect human mobility on the main island of Unguja and identified a cluster of highly related parasites, suggestive of an outbreak, in the Micheweni district on Pemba island. Parasites in asymptomatic infections demonstrated higher complexity of infection than those in symptomatic infections, but have similar core genomes. Our data support importation as a main source of genetic diversity and contribution to the parasite population on Zanzibar, but they also show local outbreak clusters where targeted interventions are essential to block local transmission. These results highlight the need for preventive measures against imported malaria and enhanced control measures in areas that remain receptive for malaria reemergence due to susceptible hosts and competent vectors.
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Background: The Zanzibar archipelago of Tanzania has become a low-transmission area for Plasmodium falciparum. Despite being considered an area of pre-elimination for years, achieving elimination has been difficult, likely due to a combination of imported infections from mainland Tanzania and continued local transmission. Methods: To shed light on these sources of transmission, we applied highly multiplexed genotyping utilizing molecular inversion probes to characterize the genetic relatedness of 282 P. falciparum isolates collected across Zanzibar and in Bagamoyo district on the coastal mainland from 2016 to 2018. Results: Overall, parasite populations on the coastal mainland and Zanzibar archipelago remain highly related. However, parasite isolates from Zanzibar exhibit population microstructure due to the rapid decay of parasite relatedness over very short distances. This, along with highly related pairs within shehias, suggests ongoing low-level local transmission. We also identified highly related parasites across shehias that reflect human mobility on the main island of Unguja and identified a cluster of highly related parasites, suggestive of an outbreak, in the Micheweni district on Pemba island. Parasites in asymptomatic infections demonstrated higher complexity of infection than those in symptomatic infections, but have similar core genomes. Conclusions: Our data support importation as a main source of genetic diversity and contribution to the parasite population in Zanzibar, but they also show local outbreak clusters where targeted interventions are essential to block local transmission. These results highlight the need for preventive measures against imported malaria and enhanced control measures in areas that remain receptive to malaria reemergence due to susceptible hosts and competent vectors. Funding: This research was funded by the National Institutes of Health, grants R01AI121558, R01AI137395, R01AI155730, F30AI143172, and K24AI134990. Funding was also contributed from the Swedish Research Council, Erling-Persson Family Foundation, and the Yang Fund. RV acknowledges funding from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (reference MR/R015600/1), jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), under the MRC/FCDO Concordat agreement and is also part of the EDCTP2 program supported by the European Union. RV also acknowledges funding by Community Jameel.
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Malaria Falciparum , Plasmodium falciparum , Tanzanía/epidemiología , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Plasmodium falciparum/aislamiento & purificación , Malaria Falciparum/transmisión , Malaria Falciparum/parasitología , Malaria Falciparum/epidemiología , Humanos , GenotipoRESUMEN
For over fifty years, the pathogenesis of May-Thurner syndrome (MTS) has been associated with chronic left common iliac vein compression resulting in the formation of intraluminal, permanent obstructive lesions. However, despite this association, the mechanism by which compression produces these lesions is unknown. Diagnostic accuracy of MTS is critical since it often afflicts young patients requiring endovascular management. This review will focus on the historical, embryological and evolutionary description of MTS and examine its development, diagnosis, clinical management and potential diagnostic errors.
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Procedimientos Endovasculares , Síndrome de May-Thurner/diagnóstico , Síndrome de May-Thurner/terapia , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Vasculares , Procedimientos Endovasculares/instrumentación , Historia del Siglo XIX , Historia del Siglo XX , Historia del Siglo XXI , Humanos , Síndrome de May-Thurner/embriología , Síndrome de May-Thurner/historia , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , Factores de Riesgo , Resultado del Tratamiento , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Vasculares/instrumentación , Filtros de Vena CavaRESUMEN
Reported COVID-19 cases and associated mortality remain low in many sub-Saharan countries relative to global averages, but true impact is difficult to estimate given limitations around surveillance and mortality registration. In Lusaka, Zambia, burial registration and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data during 2020 allow estimation of excess mortality and transmission. Relative to pre-pandemic patterns, we estimate age-dependent mortality increases, totalling 3212 excess deaths (95% CrI: 2104-4591), representing an 18.5% (95% CrI: 13.0-25.2%) increase relative to pre-pandemic levels. Using a dynamical model-based inferential framework, we find that these mortality patterns and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data are in agreement with established COVID-19 severity estimates. Our results support hypotheses that COVID-19 impact in Lusaka during 2020 was consistent with COVID-19 epidemics elsewhere, without requiring exceptional explanations for low reported figures. For more equitable decision-making during future pandemics, barriers to ascertaining attributable mortality in low-income settings must be addressed and factored into discourse around reported impact differences.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2 , Zambia/epidemiología , Entierro , PandemiasRESUMEN
Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media-conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , Etiopía/epidemiología , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , PandemiasRESUMEN
Background: The infection fatality ratio (IFR) is a key statistic for estimating the burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and has been continuously debated throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The age-specific IFR can be quantified using antibody surveys to estimate total infections, but requires consideration of delay-distributions from time from infection to seroconversion, time to death, and time to seroreversion (i.e. antibody waning) alongside serologic test sensitivity and specificity. Previous IFR estimates have not fully propagated uncertainty or accounted for these potential biases, particularly seroreversion. Methods: We built a Bayesian statistical model that incorporates these factors and applied this model to simulated data and 10 serologic studies from different countries. Results: We demonstrate that seroreversion becomes a crucial factor as time accrues but is less important during first-wave, short-term dynamics. We additionally show that disaggregating surveys by regions with higher versus lower disease burden can inform serologic test specificity estimates. The overall IFR in each setting was estimated at 0.49-2.53%. Conclusion: We developed a robust statistical framework to account for full uncertainties in the parameters determining IFR. We provide code for others to apply these methods to further datasets and future epidemics.
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BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed enormous strain on intensive care units (ICUs) in Europe. Ensuring access to care, irrespective of COVID-19 status, in winter 2020-2021 is essential. METHODS: An integrated model of hospital capacity planning and epidemiological projections of COVID-19 patients is used to estimate the demand for and resultant spare capacity of ICU beds, staff and ventilators under different epidemic scenarios in France, Germany and Italy across the 2020-2021 winter period. The effect of implementing lockdowns triggered by different numbers of COVID-19 patients in ICUs under varying levels of effectiveness is examined, using a 'dual-demand' (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19) patient model. RESULTS: Without sufficient mitigation, we estimate that COVID-19 ICU patient numbers will exceed those seen in the first peak, resulting in substantial capacity deficits, with beds being consistently found to be the most constrained resource. Reactive lockdowns could lead to large improvements in ICU capacity during the winter season, with pressure being most effectively alleviated when lockdown is triggered early and sustained under a higher level of suppression. The success of such interventions also depends on baseline bed numbers and average non-COVID-19 patient occupancy. CONCLUSION: Reductions in capacity deficits under different scenarios must be weighed against the feasibility and drawbacks of further lockdowns. Careful, continuous decision-making by national policymakers will be required across the winter period 2020-2021.
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COVID-19 , Pandemias , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Francia , Alemania , Humanos , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , Italia , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
The worldwide endeavour to develop safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines has been extraordinary, and vaccination is now underway in many countries. However, the doses available in 2021 are likely to be limited. We extend a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission across different country settings to evaluate the public health impact of potential vaccines using WHO-developed target product profiles. We identify optimal vaccine allocation strategies within- and between-countries to maximise averted deaths under constraints on dose supply. We find that the health impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination depends on the cumulative population-level infection incidence when vaccination begins, the duration of natural immunity, the trajectory of the epidemic prior to vaccination, and the level of healthcare available to effectively treat those with disease. Within a country we find that for a limited supply (doses for < 20% of the population) the optimal strategy is to target the elderly. However, with a larger supply, if vaccination can occur while other interventions are maintained, the optimal strategy switches to targeting key transmitters to indirectly protect the vulnerable. As supply increases, vaccines that reduce or block infection have a greater impact than those that prevent disease alone due to the indirect protection provided to high-risk groups. Given a 2 billion global dose supply in 2021, we find that a strategy in which doses are allocated to countries proportional to population size is close to optimal in averting deaths and aligns with the ethical principles agreed in pandemic preparedness planning.
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COVID-19 , Vacunas , Anciano , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Salud Pública , SARS-CoV-2 , VacunaciónRESUMEN
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in substantial mortality worldwide. However, to date, countries in the Middle East and Africa have reported considerably lower mortality rates than in Europe and the Americas. Motivated by reports of an overwhelmed health system, we estimate the likely under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality in Damascus, Syria. Using all-cause mortality data, we fit a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission to reported mortality, estimating that 1.25% of COVID-19 deaths (sensitivity range 1.00% - 3.00%) have been reported as of 2 September 2020. By 2 September, we estimate that 4,380 (95% CI: 3,250 - 5,550) COVID-19 deaths in Damascus may have been missed, with 39.0% (95% CI: 32.5% - 45.0%) of the population in Damascus estimated to have been infected. Accounting for under-ascertainment corroborates reports of exceeded hospital bed capacity and is validated by community-uploaded obituary notifications, which confirm extensive unreported mortality in Damascus.
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COVID-19/mortalidad , Mortalidad/tendencias , SARS-CoV-2/aislamiento & purificación , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/virología , Humanos , Pandemias , Vigilancia de la Población/métodos , SARS-CoV-2/fisiología , Tasa de Supervivencia , Siria/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Reports of P. vivax infections among Duffy-negative hosts have accumulated throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Despite this growing body of evidence, no nationally representative epidemiological surveys of P. vivax in sub-Saharan Africa have been performed. To overcome this gap in knowledge, we screened over 17,000 adults in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) for P. vivax using samples from the 2013-2014 Demographic Health Survey. Overall, we found a 2.97% (95% CI: 2.28%, 3.65%) prevalence of P. vivax infections across the DRC. Infections were associated with few risk-factors and demonstrated a relatively flat distribution of prevalence across space with focal regions of relatively higher prevalence in the north and northeast. Mitochondrial genomes suggested that DRC P. vivax were distinct from circulating non-human ape strains and an ancestral European P. vivax strain, and instead may be part of a separate contemporary clade. Our findings suggest P. vivax is diffusely spread across the DRC at a low prevalence, which may be associated with long-term carriage of low parasitemia, frequent relapses, or a general pool of infections with limited forward propagation.