RESUMEN
Longitudinal models of biomarkers such as tumour size dynamics capture treatment efficacy and predict treatment outcome (overall survival) of a variety of anticancer therapies, including chemotherapies, targeted therapies, immunotherapies and their combinations. These pharmacological endpoints like tumour dynamic (tumour growth inhibition) metrics have been proposed as alternative endpoints to complement the classical RECIST endpoints (objective response rate, progression-free survival) to support early decisions both at the study level in drug development as well as at the patients level in personalised therapy with checkpoint inhibitors. This perspective paper presents recent developments and future directions to enable wider and robust use of model-based decision frameworks based on pharmacological endpoints.
Asunto(s)
Neoplasias , Medicina de Precisión , Humanos , Neoplasias/tratamiento farmacológico , Biomarcadores , Resultado del Tratamiento , Desarrollo de MedicamentosRESUMEN
In advanced cancer patients, tumor burden is calculated using the sum of the longest diameters (SLD) of the target lesions, a measure that lumps all lesions together and ignores intra-patient heterogeneity. Here, we used a rich dataset of 342 metastatic bladder cancer patients treated with a novel immunotherapy agent to develop a Bayesian multilevel joint model that can quantify heterogeneity in lesion dynamics and measure their impact on survival. Using a nonlinear model of tumor growth inhibition, we estimated that dynamics differed greatly among lesions, and inter-lesion variability accounted for 21% and 28% of the total variance in tumor shrinkage and treatment effect duration, respectively. Next, we investigated the impact of individual lesion dynamics on survival. Lesions located in the liver and in the bladder had twice as much impact on the instantaneous risk of death compared to those located in the lung or the lymph nodes. Finally, we evaluated the utility of individual lesion follow-up for dynamic predictions. Consistent with results at the population level, the individual lesion model outperformed a model relying only on SLD, especially at early landmark times and in patients with liver or bladder target lesions. Our results show that an individual lesion model can characterize the heterogeneity in tumor dynamics and its impact on survival in advanced cancer patients.
Asunto(s)
Neoplasias , Dinámicas no Lineales , Humanos , Teorema de Bayes , Neoplasias/patologíaRESUMEN
Nonlinear joint models are a powerful tool to precisely analyse the association between a nonlinear biomarker and a time-to-event process, such as death. Here, we review the main methodological techniques required to build these models and to make inferences and predictions. We describe the main clinical applications and discuss the future developments of such models.
Asunto(s)
Modelos Estadísticos , Dinámicas no Lineales , Biomarcadores , Simulación por Computador , HumanosRESUMEN
Dose selection and optimization is an important topic in drug development to maximize treatment benefits for all patients. While exposure-response (E-R) analysis is a useful method to inform dose-selection strategy, in oncology, special considerations for prognostic factors are needed due to their potential to confound the E-R analysis for monoclonal antibodies. The current review focuses on 3 different approaches to mitigate the confounding effects for monoclonal antibodies in oncology: (i) Cox-proportional hazards modelling and case-matching; (ii) tumour growth inhibition-overall survival modelling; and (iii) multiple dose level study design. In the presence of confounding effects, studying multiple dose levels may be required to reveal the true E-R relationship. However, it is impractical for pivotal trials in oncology drug development programmes. Therefore, the strengths and weaknesses of the other 2 approaches are considered, and the favourable utility of tumour growth inhibition-overall survival modelling to address confounding in E-R analyses is described. In the broader scope of oncology drug development, this review discusses the downfall of the current emphasis on E-R analyses using data from single dose level trials and proposes that development programmes be designed to study more dose levels in earlier trials.
Asunto(s)
Antineoplásicos Inmunológicos , Neoplasias , Anticuerpos Monoclonales/uso terapéutico , Antineoplásicos Inmunológicos/uso terapéutico , Desarrollo de Medicamentos , Humanos , Oncología Médica , Neoplasias/tratamiento farmacológicoRESUMEN
Treatment evaluation in advanced cancer mainly relies on overall survival and tumor size dynamics. Both markers and their association can be simultaneously analyzed by using joint models, and these approaches are supported by many softwares or packages. However, these approaches are essentially limited to linear models for the longitudinal part, which limit their biological interpretation. More biological models of tumor dynamics can be obtained by using nonlinear models, but they are limited by the fact that parameter identifiability require rich dataset. In that context Bayesian approaches are particularly suited to incorporate the biological knowledge and increase the information available, but they are limited by the high computing cost of Monte-Carlo by Markov Chains algorithms. Here, we aimed to assess the performances of the Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo (HMC) algorithm implemented in Stan for inference in a nonlinear joint model. The method was validated on simulated data where HMC provided proper posterior distributions and credibility intervals in a reasonable computational time. Then the association between tumor size dynamics and survival was assessed in patients with advanced or metastatic bladder cancer treated with atezolizumab, an immunotherapy agent. HMC confirmed limited sensitivity to prior distributions. A cross-validation approach was developed and identified the current slope of tumor size dynamics as the most relevant driver of survival. In summary, HMC is an efficient approach to perform nonlinear joint models in a Bayesian framework, and opens the way for the use of nonlinear models to characterize both the rapid dynamics and the intersubject variability observed during cancer immunotherapy treatment.
Asunto(s)
Algoritmos , Neoplasias , Teorema de Bayes , Humanos , Inmunoterapia , Cadenas de Markov , Método de Montecarlo , Neoplasias/tratamiento farmacológico , Dinámicas no LinealesRESUMEN
The purpose of this work is to assess the heterogeneity across organs of response to treatment in metastatic colorectal patient based on longitudinal individual target lesion diameters (ILD) in comparison to sum of tumor lesion diameters (SLD). Data were from the McCAVE trial, in which 189 previously untreated patients with metastatic colorectal carcinoma (mCRC) received either bevacizumab (control, C) or vanucizumab (experimental, E), on top of standard chemotherapy. Bayesian hierarchical longitudinal non-linear mixed effect models were fitted to the data using Hamilton Monte Carlo algorithm to characterize the time dynamics of the tumor burden, and to obtain estimates of the tumor shrinkage and regrowth rates. The ILD model brought more nuanced results than to the SLD model. Besides substantial differences in tumor size at baseline (with lesions located in liver more than twice as large as the ones in lungs), it revealed a more durable response in lesions located in lymph nodes and 'other organs' compared to liver and lungs. Specifically, in lymph nodes and 'other organs', the projected time to nadir was doubled in group E (2.12 and 2.44 years respectively) compared to group C (1.07 and 1.20 years respectively). This long period of tumor shrinkage associated with a slightly larger change from baseline at nadir (- 51.4% in lymph nodes and - 62.6% in 'other organs' in the group E, compared to - 46.2% and - 46.9% in group C) resulted in a clinically meaningful difference in the tumor dynamics of patients in group E compared to the group C. The proportion of variance explained by the inter-lesion variability for each model parameter was large (ranging between 10 and 56%), reflecting the heterogeneity in tumor dynamics across organs. These findings suggest that there is value in understanding both within- and between-patient variability in tumor size's time dynamics using an appropriate modeling framework, as this information may help in pairing the right treatment with individual patient profile.
Asunto(s)
Inhibidores de la Angiogénesis/farmacología , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/farmacología , Neoplasias Colorrectales/tratamiento farmacológico , Neoplasias Hepáticas/tratamiento farmacológico , Neoplasias Pulmonares/tratamiento farmacológico , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Inhibidores de la Angiogénesis/uso terapéutico , Anticuerpos Monoclonales Humanizados/farmacología , Anticuerpos Monoclonales Humanizados/uso terapéutico , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/uso terapéutico , Teorema de Bayes , Bevacizumab/farmacología , Bevacizumab/uso terapéutico , Variación Biológica Individual , Variación Biológica Poblacional , Neoplasias Colorrectales/patología , Femenino , Fluorouracilo/farmacología , Fluorouracilo/uso terapéutico , Humanos , Leucovorina/farmacología , Leucovorina/uso terapéutico , Hígado/efectos de los fármacos , Hígado/patología , Neoplasias Hepáticas/secundario , Estudios Longitudinales , Pulmón/efectos de los fármacos , Pulmón/patología , Neoplasias Pulmonares/secundario , Ganglios Linfáticos/efectos de los fármacos , Ganglios Linfáticos/patología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Biológicos , Método de Montecarlo , Compuestos Organoplatinos/farmacología , Compuestos Organoplatinos/uso terapéutico , Carga Tumoral/efectos de los fármacosRESUMEN
Sildenafil (REVATIO®) was approved for the treatment of adult Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) in the US and the EU. A pediatric study has been performed and sildenafil was approved in the EU for pediatric PAH. The long-term extension of this study revealed good survival but also an increased mortality with the high dose of sildenafil compared to lower doses. As a consequence, FDA required Pfizer to evaluate REVATIO®'s effect on the risk of death in adults with PAH. Following FDA's rationale a survival model was developed to characterize the exposure-mortality relationship and assess its potential impact on an ongoing survival trial in adults in the context of confounding factors. Clinical trial simulations were performed to assess the design of the survival trial in adults (AFFILIATE, NCT02060487), expected to last approximately 8 years according to both assumptions: absence or presence of an exposure-mortality relationship and to quantify the impact of confounding factors on its readout. Simulations showed that the trial would be robust in most conditions. But its interpretation will depend on the number of confounding factors such as additional treatments attempting to control disease progression.Clinical trial identifier NCT00159913 for STARTS-1, NCT00159874 for STARTS-2.
Asunto(s)
Modelos Biológicos , Hipertensión Arterial Pulmonar/tratamiento farmacológico , Hipertensión Arterial Pulmonar/mortalidad , Citrato de Sildenafil/efectos adversos , Adulto , Ensayos Clínicos como Asunto , Simulación por Computador , Factores de Confusión Epidemiológicos , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Factores de Riesgo , Citrato de Sildenafil/administración & dosificación , Análisis de Supervivencia , Factores de Tiempo , Resultado del Tratamiento , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Maintenance treatment (MTx) in responders following first-line treatment has been investigated and practiced for many cancers. Modeling and simulation may support interpretation of interim data and development decisions. We aimed to develop a modeling framework to simulate overall survival (OS) for MTx in NSCLC using tumor growth inhibition (TGI) data. METHODS: TGI metrics were estimated using longitudinal tumor size data from two Phase III first-line NSCLC studies evaluating bevacizumab and erlotinib as MTx in 1632 patients. Baseline prognostic factors and TGI metric estimates were assessed in multivariate parametric models to predict OS. The OS model was externally validated by simulating a third independent NSCLC study (n = 253) based on interim TGI data (up to progression-free survival database lock). The third study evaluated pemetrexed + bevacizumab vs. bevacizumab alone as MTx. RESULTS: Time-to-tumor-growth (TTG) was the best TGI metric to predict OS. TTG, baseline tumor size, ECOG score, Asian ethnicity, age, and gender were significant covariates in the final OS model. The OS model was qualified by simulating OS distributions and hazard ratios (HR) in the two studies used for model-building. Simulations of the third independent study based on interim TGI data showed that pemetrexed + bevacizumab MTx was unlikely to significantly prolong OS vs. bevacizumab alone given the current sample size (predicted HR: 0.81; 95 % prediction interval: 0.59-1.09). Predicted median OS was 17.3 months and 14.7 months in both arms, respectively. These simulations are consistent with the results of the final OS analysis published 2 years later (observed HR: 0.87; 95 % confidence interval: 0.63-1.21). Final observed median OS was 17.1 months and 13.2 months in both arms, respectively, consistent with our predictions. CONCLUSIONS: A robust TGI-OS model was developed for MTx in NSCLC. TTG captures treatment effect. The model successfully predicted the OS outcomes of an independent study based on interim TGI data and thus may facilitate trial simulation and interpretation of interim data. The model was built based on erlotinib data and externally validated using pemetrexed data, suggesting that TGI-OS models may be treatment-independent. The results supported the use of longitudinal tumor size and TTG as endpoints in early clinical oncology studies.
Asunto(s)
Antineoplásicos/uso terapéutico , Carcinoma de Pulmón de Células no Pequeñas/tratamiento farmacológico , Carcinoma de Pulmón de Células no Pequeñas/mortalidad , Simulación por Computador , Neoplasias Pulmonares/tratamiento farmacológico , Neoplasias Pulmonares/mortalidad , Modelos Biológicos , Ensayos Clínicos como Asunto , Supervivencia sin Enfermedad , Clorhidrato de Erlotinib/uso terapéutico , Femenino , Humanos , Quimioterapia de Mantención/métodos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Pemetrexed/uso terapéutico , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Análisis de Supervivencia , Resultado del TratamientoRESUMEN
Two-stage and joint modeling approaches are the two main approaches to investigate the link between longitudinal tumor size data and overall survival (OS) and anticipate clinical trial outcome. We here used a large database composed of one phase II and five phase III clinical trials evaluating atezolizumab (an immunotherapy) in monotherapy or in combination with chemotherapies in 3699 patients with non-small cell lung cancer to evaluate the differences between both approaches in terms of parameter estimates, magnitude of covariate effects, and ability to predict OS. Although the two-stage approach may underestimate the magnitude of the impact of tumor growth rate (KG ) on OS compared to joint modeling approach (hazard ratios [HRs] of 0.42-2.52 vs. 0.25-2.85, respectively, for individual KG varying from the 5th and 95th percentiles), this difference did not lead into poorer performance of the two-stage approach to describe the OS distribution in the six clinical studies. Overall, two-stage and joint modeling approaches accurately predicted OS HR with a median (range) difference with the observed OS HR of 0.02 (0.01-0.18) and 0.03 (0.00-0.19), in all cases considered, respectively (e.g., for IMpower150: 0.80 [0.66-0.95] vs. 0.82 [0.70-0.95], respectively, whereas the observed OS HR was 0.80). In our setting, the two-stage approach accurately predicted the benefit of atezolizumab on OS. Further work is needed to verify if similar results are achieved using phase Ib or phase II clinical trials where the number of patients and measurements is limited as well as in other cancer indications.
Asunto(s)
Carcinoma de Pulmón de Células no Pequeñas , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/patología , Anticuerpos Monoclonales Humanizados/uso terapéutico , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/uso terapéuticoRESUMEN
Model-based tumor growth inhibition (TGI) metrics are increasingly used to predict overall survival (OS) data in Phase III immunotherapy clinical trials. However, there is still a lack of understanding regarding the differences between two-stage or joint modeling methods to leverage Phase I/II trial data and help early decision-making. A recent study showed that TGI metrics such as the tumor growth rate constant KG may have good operating characteristics as early endpoints. This previous study used a two-stage approach that is easy to implement and intuitive but prone to bias as it does not account for the relationship between the longitudinal and time-to-event processes. A relevant alternative is to use a joint modeling approach. In the present article, we evaluated the operating characteristics of TGI metrics using joint modeling, assuming an OS model previously developed using historical data. To that end, we used TGI and OS data from IMpower150-a study investigating atezolizumab in over 750 patients suffering from non-small cell lung cancer-to mimic randomized Phase Ib/II trials varying in terms of number of patients included (40 to 15 patients per arm) and follow-up duration (24 to 6 weeks after the last patient included). In this context, joint modeling did not outperform the two-stage approach and provided similar operating characteristics in all the investigated scenarios. Our results suggest that KG geometric mean ratio could be used to support early decision-making provided that 30 or more patients per arm are included and followed for at least 12 weeks.
Asunto(s)
Anticuerpos Monoclonales Humanizados , Carcinoma de Pulmón de Células no Pequeñas , Ensayos Clínicos Fase I como Asunto , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/tratamiento farmacológico , Neoplasias Pulmonares/mortalidad , Anticuerpos Monoclonales Humanizados/uso terapéutico , Anticuerpos Monoclonales Humanizados/administración & dosificación , Carcinoma de Pulmón de Células no Pequeñas/tratamiento farmacológico , Carcinoma de Pulmón de Células no Pequeñas/mortalidad , Carcinoma de Pulmón de Células no Pequeñas/patología , Ensayos Clínicos Fase II como Asunto , Análisis de Supervivencia , Toma de DecisionesRESUMEN
Existing survival prediction models rely only on baseline or tumor kinetics data and lack machine learning integration. We introduce a novel kinetics-machine learning (kML) model that integrates baseline markers, tumor kinetics, and four on-treatment simple blood markers (albumin, C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, and neutrophils). Developed for immune-checkpoint inhibition (ICI) in non-small cell lung cancer on three phase II trials (533 patients), kML was validated on the two arms of a phase III trial (ICI and chemotherapy, 377 and 354 patients). It outperformed the current state-of-the-art for individual predictions with a test set C-index of 0.790, 12-months survival accuracy of 78.7% and hazard ratio of 25.2 (95% CI: 10.4-61.3, P < 0.0001) to identify long-term survivors. Critically, kML predicted the success of the phase III trial using only 25 weeks of on-study data (predicted HR = 0.814 (0.64-0.994) vs. final study HR = 0.778 (0.65-0.931)). Modeling on-treatment blood markers combined with predictive machine learning constitutes a valuable approach to support personalized medicine and drug development. The code is publicly available at https://gitlab.inria.fr/benzekry/nlml_onco.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: A modeling framework was previously developed to simulate overall survival (OS) using tumor growth inhibition (TGI) data from six randomized phase 2/3 atezolizumab monotherapy or combination studies in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We aimed to externally validate this framework to simulate OS in patients with treatment-naive advanced anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK)-positive NSCLC in the alectinib ALEX study. METHODS: TGI metrics were estimated from a biexponential model using longitudinal tumor size data from a Phase 3 study evaluating alectinib compared with crizotinib in patients with treatment-naive ALK-positive advanced NSCLC. Baseline prognostic factors and TGI metric estimates were used to predict OS. RESULTS: 286 patients were evaluable (at least baseline and one post-baseline tumor size measurements) out of 303 (94%) followed for up to 5 years (cut-off: 29 November 2019). The tumor growth rate estimate and baseline prognostic factors (inflammatory status, tumor burden, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, race, line of therapy, and sex) were used to simulate OS in ALEX study. Observed survival distributions for alectinib and crizotinib were within model 95% prediction intervals (PI) for approximately 2 years. Predicted hazard ratio (HR) between alectinib and crizotinib was in agreement with the observed HR (predicted HR 0.612, 95% PI 0.480-0.770 vs. 0.625 observed HR). CONCLUSION: The TGI-OS model based on unselected or PD-L1 selected NSCLC patients included in atezolizumab trials is externally validated to predict treatment effect (HR) in a biomarker-selected (ALK-positive) population included in alectinib ALEX trial suggesting that TGI-OS models may be treatment independent.
Asunto(s)
Carcinoma de Pulmón de Células no Pequeñas , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Humanos , Carcinoma de Pulmón de Células no Pequeñas/patología , Crizotinib/farmacología , Neoplasias Pulmonares/patología , Quinasa de Linfoma Anaplásico , Carbazoles/uso terapéutico , Inhibidores de Proteínas Quinasas/uso terapéuticoRESUMEN
PURPOSE: Several studies have raised the hypothesis that immunotherapy may exacerbate the variability in individual lesions, increasing the risk of observing divergent kinetic profiles within the same patient. This questions the use of the sum of the longest diameter to follow the response to immunotherapy. Here, we aimed to study this hypothesis by developing a model that estimates the different sources of variability in lesion kinetics, and we used this model to evaluate the impact of this variability on survival. METHODS: We relied on a semimechanistic model to follow the nonlinear kinetics of lesions and their impact on the risk of death, adjusted on organ location. The model incorporated two levels of random effects to characterize both between- and within-patient variability in response to treatment. The model was estimated on 900 patients from a phase III randomized trial evaluating programmed death-ligand 1 checkpoint inhibitor atezolizumab versus chemotherapy in patients with second-line metastatic urothelial carcinoma (IMvigor211). RESULTS: The within-patient variability in the four parameters that characterize individual lesion kinetics represented between 12% and 78% of the total variability during chemotherapy. Similar results were obtained during atezolizumab, except for the durability of the treatment effects, for which the within-patient variability was markedly larger than during chemotherapy (40% v 12%, respectively). Accordingly, the occurrence of divergent profile consistently increased over time in patients treated with atezolizumab and was equal to about 20% after 1 year of treatment. Finally, we show that accounting for the within-patient variability provided a better prediction of most at-risk patients than a model relying solely on the sum of the longest diameter. CONCLUSION: Within-patient variability provides valuable information for the assessment of treatment efficacy and the detection of at-risk patients.
Asunto(s)
Carcinoma de Células Transicionales , Neoplasias de la Vejiga Urinaria , Humanos , Cinética , Inmunoterapia/efectos adversosRESUMEN
We assess the longitudinal tumor growth inhibition (TGI) metrics and overall survival (OS) predictions applied to patients with advanced biliary tract cancer (BTC) enrolled in IMbrave151 a multicenter randomized phase II, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of atezolizumab with or without bevacizumab in combination with cisplatin plus gemcitabine. Tumor growth rate (KG) was estimated for patients in IMbrave151. A pre-existing TGI-OS model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in IMbrave150 was modified to include available IMbrave151 study covariates and KG estimates and used to simulate IMbrave151 study outcomes. At the interim progression-free survival (PFS) analysis (98 patients, 27 weeks follow-up), clear separation in tumor dynamic profiles with a faster shrinkage rate and slower KG (0.0103 vs. 0.0117 week-1 ; tumor doubling time 67 vs. 59 weeks; KG geometric mean ratio of 0.84) favoring the bevacizumab containing arm was observed. At the first interim analysis for PFS, the simulated OS hazard ratio (HR) 95% prediction interval (PI) of 0.74 (95% PI: 0.58-0.94) offered an early prediction of treatment benefit later confirmed at the final analysis, observed HR of 0.76 based on 159 treated patients and 34 weeks of follow-up. This is the first prospective application of a TGI-OS modeling framework supporting gating of a phase III trial. The findings demonstrate the utility for longitudinal TGI and KG geometric mean ratio as relevant end points in oncology studies to support go/no-go decision making and facilitate interpretation of the IMbrave151 results to support future development efforts for novel therapeutics for patients with advanced BTC.
Asunto(s)
Neoplasias del Sistema Biliar , Neoplasias Hepáticas , Humanos , Bevacizumab/efectos adversos , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/uso terapéutico , Neoplasias del Sistema Biliar/tratamiento farmacológico , Neoplasias del Sistema Biliar/etiología , Neoplasias del Sistema Biliar/patología , Cisplatino/uso terapéutico , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Toma de DecisionesRESUMEN
Overall survival is defined as the time since randomization into the clinical trial to event of death or censor (end of trial or follow-up), and is considered to be the most reliable cancer end point. However, the introduction of second-line treatment after disease progression could influence survival and be considered a confounding factor. The aim of the current study was to set up a multistate model framework, using data from the IMpower131 study, to investigate the influence of second-line immunotherapies on overall survival analysis. The model adequately described the transitions between different states in patients with advanced squamous non-small cell lung cancer treated with or without atezolizumab plus nab-paclitaxel and carboplatin, and characterized the survival data. High PD-L1 expression at baseline was associated with a decreased hazard of progression, while the presence of liver metastasis at baseline was indicative of a high risk of disease progression after initial response. The hazard of death after progression was lower for participants who had longer treatment response, i.e., longer time to progression. The simulations based on the final multistate model showed that the addition of atezolizumab to the nab-paclitaxel and carboplatin regimen had significant improvement in the patients' survival (hazard ratio = 0.75, 95% prediction interval: 0.61-0.90 favoring the atezolizumab + nab-paclitaxel and carboplatin arm). The developed modeling approach can be applied to other cancer types and therapies to provide a better understanding of efficacy of drug and characterizing different states, and investigate the benefit of primary therapy in survival while accounting for the switch to alternative treatment in the case of disease progression.
Asunto(s)
Carcinoma de Pulmón de Células no Pequeñas , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Humanos , Carboplatino/uso terapéutico , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/uso terapéutico , Paclitaxel/uso terapéutico , Inmunoterapia , Progresión de la EnfermedadRESUMEN
PURPOSE: Model-based tumor growth inhibition (TGI) metrics are increasingly incorporated into go/no-go decisions in early clinical studies. To apply this methodology to new investigational combinations requires independent evaluation of TGI metrics in recently completed Phase III trials of effective immunotherapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data were extracted from IMpower150, a positive, randomized, Phase III study of first-line therapy in 1,202 patients with non-small cell lung cancer. We resampled baseline characteristics and longitudinal sum of longest diameters of tumor lesions of patients from both arms, atezolizumab+ bevacizumab+chemotherapy (ABCP) versus BCP, to mimic Phase Ib/II studies of 15 to 40 patients/arm with 6 to 24 weeks follow-up. TGI metrics were estimated using a bi-exponential TGI model. Effect sizes were calculated as TGI metrics geometric mean ratio (GMR), objective response rate (ORR) difference (d), and progression-free survival (PFS), hazard ratio (HR) between arms. Correct and incorrect go decisions were evaluated as the probability to achieve desired effect sizes in ABCP versus BCP and BCP versus BCP, respectively, across 500 replicated subsamples for each design. RESULTS: For 40 patients/24 weeks follow-up, correct go decisions based on probability tumor growth rate (KG) GMR <0.90, dORR >0.10, and PFS HR <0.70 were 83%, 69%, and 58% with incorrect go decision rates of 4%, 12%, and 11%, respectively. For other designs, the ranking did not change with TGI metrics consistently overperforming RECIST endpoints. The predicted overall survival (OS) HR was around 0.80 in most of the scenarios investigated. CONCLUSIONS: Model-based estimate of KG GMR is an exploratory endpoint that informs early clinical decisions for combination studies.
Asunto(s)
Carcinoma de Pulmón de Células no Pequeñas , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Humanos , Carcinoma de Pulmón de Células no Pequeñas/patología , Neoplasias Pulmonares/patología , Estudios Retrospectivos , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/efectos adversos , Bevacizumab/uso terapéuticoRESUMEN
Longitudinal changes of tumor size or tumor-associated biomarkers have been receiving growing attention as early markers of treatment benefits. Tumor growth inhibition-overall survival (TGI-OS) models represent mathematical frameworks used to establish a link from tumor size trajectory to survival outcome with the aim of predicting survival benefit with tumor data from a small number of subjects with a short follow-up time. In the present study, we applied the TGI-OS model to assess treatment benefit in the IMpower150 study for patients who exhibited development of anti-drug antibodies (ADA). Direct comparison between subgroups of the active arm [ADA positive (ADA +) and negative (ADA -) groups] to the entire control group is not appropriate, due to potential imbalances of baseline prognostic factors between ADA + and ADA - patients. Thus, the TGI-OS modeling framework was employed to adjust for differences in prognostic factors between the ADA subgroups to more accurately estimate the treatment benefits. After adjustment, the TGI-OS model predicted comparable hazard ratios (HRs) of OS between ADA + and ADA - subgroups, suggesting that the development of ADA does not have a clinically significant impact on the treatment benefit of atezolizumab.
Asunto(s)
Carcinoma de Pulmón de Células no Pequeñas , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Anticuerpos Monoclonales Humanizados , Carcinoma de Pulmón de Células no Pequeñas/tratamiento farmacológico , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/tratamiento farmacológico , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Distribución AleatoriaRESUMEN
Atezolizumab is approved as an intravenous (IV) infusion for use as a single agent and in combination with other therapies in a number of indications. The objectives of this publication are to characterize atezolizumab pharmacokinetics (PK) across indications with the available clinical data from one phase I and eight phase III studies, to determine the exposure-response (ER) relationships in combination settings across a variety of tumor types, and to provide the clinical safety to support the extension of the 840 mg q2w, 1200 mg q3w, and 1680 mg q4w IV dosing regimens across various indications in combination settings. Across all clinical studies, atezolizumab PK remained in the dose-linear range and were similar across tumor types when used in combination therapy or as a monotherapy. In the combination studies, efficacy was independent of the exposures tested and there was no significant increase in adverse events with increasing atezolizumab exposure (flat ER). The safety profile of atezolizumab in the individual combination studies was generally consistent with the established safety profile of atezolizumab, the combination partners, and the disease under study. The similar atezolizumab PK across monotherapy and combination therapy settings as well as the flat ER in new tumor types and combination therapies support the use of the 3 interchangeable atezolizumab dosing regimens in the combination setting. Atezolizumab is now approved with 3 interchangeable IV dosing regimens of 840 mg q2w, 1200 mg q3w, and 1680 mg q4w for single-agent and combination therapy use in the USA and EU.