Large-Scale Atmospheric Dispersal Simulations Identify Likely Airborne Incursion Routes of Wheat Stem Rust Into Ethiopia.

In recent years, severe wheat stem rust epidemics hit Ethiopia, sub-Saharan Africa's largest wheat-producing country. These were caused by race TKTTF (Digalu race) of the pathogen Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici, which, in Ethiopia, was first detected at the beginning of August 2012. We use the incursion of this new pathogen race as a case study to determine likely airborne origins of fungal spores on regional and continental scales by means of a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM). Two different techniques, LPDM simulations forward and backward in time, are compared. The effects of release altitudes in time-backward simulations and P. graminis f. sp. tritici urediniospore viability functions in time-forward simulations are analyzed. Results suggest Yemen as the most likely origin but, also, point to other possible sources in the Middle East and the East African Rift Valley. This is plausible in light of available field surveys and phylogenetic data on TKTTF isolates from Ethiopia and other countries. Independent of the case involving TKTTF, we assess long-term dispersal trends (>10 years) to obtain quantitative estimates of the risk of exotic P. graminis f. sp. tritici spore transport (of any race) into Ethiopia for different 'what-if' scenarios of disease outbreaks in potential source countries in different months of the wheat season.

Comparison of pre-emptive and reactive strategies to control an incursion of bluetongue virus serotype 1 to Great Britain by vaccination.

Bluetongue (BT) is a disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus (BTV), which is spread between its hosts by Culicoides midges. Vaccination is the most effective way to protect susceptible animals against BTV and was used reactively to control the recent northern European outbreak. To assess the consequences of using vaccination pre-emptively we used a stochastic, spatially explicit model to compare reactive and pre-emptive vaccination strategies against an incursion of BTV serotype 1 (BTV-1) into Great Britain. Both pre-emptive and reactive vaccination significantly reduced the number of affected farms and limited host morbidity and mortality. In addition, vaccinating prior to the introduction of disease reduced the probability of an outbreak occurring. Of the strategies simulated, widespread reactive vaccination resulted in the lowest levels of morbidity. The predicted effects of vaccination were found to be sensitive to vaccine efficacy but not to the choice of transmission kernel.

Atmospheric dispersion models and their use in the assessment of disease transmission.

Atmospheric dispersion models can be used to assess the likely airborne spread of both plant and animal diseases. These models, often initially developed for other purposes, can be adapted and used to study past outbreaks of disease as well as operationally to provide advice to those responsible for containing or eradicating disease in the event of a specific emergency. The models can be run over short periods of time where emissions and infection periods can be accurately determined or in situations requiring a statistical approach perhaps covering many weeks or even months. They can also be embedded within other simulation models, i.e. models which seekto represent a wider variety of disease transmission mechanisms. Whilst atmospheric dispersion models have been used successfully in a number of instances, they have the potential for wider application in the future. To achieve maximum success in these ventures, close collaboration between the modellers and scientists from the appropriate range of disciplines is required.

Why were there no outbreaks of bluetongue in the UK during 2008?

With bluetongue rampant on the main European Continent in 2008, why were there no outbreaks reported in the UK? The essential criteria for introduction of the disease by carriage of infected midges on the wind have been assessed for 2006, 2007 and 2008, and it is concluded that temperatures were favourable for virus replication and midge activity and that suitable winds were present on a considerable number of occasions. A major difference between 2007, when virus was introduced to the UK, and 2008 was the extensive vaccination programme implemented by the UK Government in 2008, with the support of the farming community. Vaccination reduced the numbers of susceptible animals, making it difficult for a focus of disease to become established. The authors believe that if bluetongue re-establishes itself on the near Continent in 2009, it will be of critical importance that UK livestock are fully protected by vaccination against the disease.

Bluetongue in the United Kingdom and northern Europe in 2007 and key issues for 2008.

As predicted, bluetongue arrived in the UK in 2007. Here, John Gloster and colleagues investigate the meteorological parameters that allowed this incursion into the UK and discuss key issues related to the disease's possible re-establishment in 2008.

Will bluetongue come on the wind to the United Kingdom in 2007?

In 2006, over 2000 cases of bluetongue were recorded in northern Europe. The disease, which has been more typically associated with Mediterranean areas, is believed to have become established hundreds of kilometres to the north of its traditional area, probably as a consequence of the hottest summer/autumn period since records began. In this special article, John Gloster and colleagues describe the meteorological conditions surrounding the 2006 outbreak, and investigate the possibility of bluetongue virus (BTV) spreading on the wind to the UK in 2007. For this to happen there would need to be a source of windborne virus, together with a susceptible population of ruminants in the vicinity of the coast. Evidence from outbreaks in the Mediterranean Basin suggests that long-distance transport of BTV-infected vectors has already occurred, at least in that region. The overall likelihood of this occurring in northern Europe depends critically on whether the virus overwinters on the near continent; this will not be known until around May 2007. The 2006 outbreak has highlighted the importance of understanding the impact of climate change on animal disease.

Quantifying airborne dispersal routes of pathogens over continents to safeguard global wheat supply.

Infectious crop diseases spreading over large agricultural areas pose a threat to food security. Aggressive strains of the obligate pathogenic fungus Puccinia graminis f.sp. tritici (Pgt), causing the crop disease wheat stem rust, have been detected in East Africa and the Middle East, where they lead to substantial economic losses and threaten livelihoods of farmers. The majority of commercially grown wheat cultivars worldwide are susceptible to these emerging strains, which pose a risk to global wheat production, because the fungal spores transmitting the disease can be wind-dispersed over regions and even continents 1-11 . Targeted surveillance and control requires knowledge about airborne dispersal of pathogens, but the complex nature of long-distance dispersal poses significant challenges for quantitative research 12-14 . We combine international field surveys, global meteorological data, a Lagrangian dispersion model and high-performance computational resources to simulate a set of disease outbreak scenarios, tracing billions of stochastic trajectories of fungal spores over dynamically changing host and environmental landscapes for more than a decade. This provides the first quantitative assessment of spore transmission frequencies and amounts amongst all wheat producing countries in Southern/East Africa, the Middle East and Central/South Asia. We identify zones of high air-borne connectivity that geographically correspond with previously postulated wheat rust epidemiological zones (characterized by endemic disease and free movement of inoculum) 10,15 , and regions with genetic similarities in related pathogen populations 16,17 . We quantify the circumstances (routes, timing, outbreak sizes) under which virulent pathogen strains such as 'Ug99' 5,6 pose a threat from long-distance dispersal out of East Africa to the large wheat producing areas in Pakistan and India. Long-term mean spore dispersal trends (predominant direction, frequencies, amounts) are summarized for all countries in the domain (Supplementary Data). Our mechanistic modelling framework can be applied to other geographic areas, adapted for other pathogens and used to provide risk assessments in real-time 3 .

Understanding Spatio-Temporal Variability in the Reproduction Ratio of the Bluetongue (BTV-1) Epidemic in Southern Spain (Andalusia) in 2007 Using Epidemic Trees.

Andalusia (Southern Spain) is considered one of the main routes of introduction of bluetongue virus (BTV) into Europe, evidenced by a devastating epidemic caused by BTV-1 in 2007. Understanding the pattern and the drivers of BTV-1 spread in Andalusia is critical for effective detection and control of future epidemics. A long-standing metric for quantifying the behaviour of infectious diseases is the case-reproduction ratio (Rt), defined as the average number of secondary cases arising from a single infected case at time t (for t>0). Here we apply a method using epidemic trees to estimate the between-herd case reproduction ratio directly from epidemic data allowing the spatial and temporal variability in transmission to be described. We then relate this variability to predictors describing the hosts, vectors and the environment to better understand why the epidemic spread more quickly in some regions or periods. The Rt value for the BTV-1 epidemic in Andalusia peaked in July at 4.6, at the start of the epidemic, then decreased to 2.2 by August, dropped below 1 by September (0.8), and by October it had decreased to 0.02. BTV spread was the consequence of both local transmission within established disease foci and BTV expansion to distant new areas (i.e. new foci), which resulted in a high variability in BTV transmission, not only among different areas, but particularly through time, which suggests that general control measures applied at broad spatial scales are unlikely to be effective. This high variability through time was probably due to the impact of temperature on BTV transmission, as evidenced by a reduction in the value of Rt by 0.0041 for every unit increase (day) in the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), which is itself directly dependent on temperature. Moreover, within the range of values at which BTV-1 transmission occurred in Andalusia (20.6°C to 29.5°C) there was a positive correlation between temperature and Rt values, although the relationship was not linear, probably as a result of the complex relationship between temperature and the different parameters affecting BTV transmission. Rt values for BTV-1 in Andalusia fell below the threshold of 1 when temperatures dropped below 21°C, a much higher threshold than that reported in other BTV outbreaks, such as the BTV-8 epidemic in Northern Europe. This divergence may be explained by differences in the adaptation to temperature of the main vectors of the BTV-1 epidemic in Andalusia (Culicoides imicola) compared those of the BTV-8 epidemic in Northern Europe (Culicoides obsoletus). Importantly, we found that BTV transmission (Rt value) increased significantly in areas with higher densities of sheep. Our analysis also established that control of BTV-1 in Andalusia was complicated by the simultaneous establishment of several distant foci at the start of the epidemic, which may have been caused by several independent introductions of infected vectors from the North of Africa. We discuss the implications of these findings for BTV surveillance and control in this region of Europe.

The mechanical and material properties of elderly human articular cartilage subject to impact and slow loading.

The mechanical properties of articular cartilage vary enormously with loading rate, and how these properties derive from the composition and structure of the tissue is still unclear. This study investigates the mechanical properties of human articular cartilage at rapid rates of loading, compares these with measurements at slow rates of loading and explores how they relate to the gross composition of the tissue. Full-depth femoral head cartilage biopsies were subjected to a slow, unconfined compression test followed by an impact at an energy of 78.5mJ and velocity 1.25ms(-1). The modulus was calculated from the slope of the loading curve and the coefficient of restitution from the areas under the loading and unloading curves. Tissue composition was measured as water, collagen and glycosaminoglycan contents. The maximum dynamic modulus ranged from 25 to 150MPa. These values compared with 1-3MPa measured during quasi-static loading. The coefficient of restitution was 0.502 (0.066) (mean (standard deviation)) and showed no site variation. Water loss was not detectable. Composition was not strongly associated with modulus; water and collagen contents together predicted about 25% of the variance in modulus.

Investigating incursions of bluetongue virus using a model of long-distance Culicoides biting midge dispersal.

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an economically important pathogen of ruminants that is the aetiological agent of the haemorrhagic disease bluetongue. Bluetongue virus is biologically transmitted by Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), and long-range dispersal of infected vector species contributes substantially to the rapid spread of the virus. The range of semi-passive flights of infected Culicoides on prevailing winds has been inferred to reach several hundred kilometres in a single night over water bodies. In this study, an atmospheric dispersion model was parameterized to simulate Culicoides flight activity based on dedicated entomological data sets collected in the UK. Five outbreaks of BTV in Europe were used to evaluate the model for use as an early warning tool and for retrospective analyses of BTV incursions. In each case, the generated predictions were consistent with epidemiological observations confirming its reliability for use in disease outbreak management. Furthermore, the model aided policy makers to predict, contain and eradicate BTV outbreaks in the UK during 2007 and 2008.

Reanalysis of the start of the UK 1967 to 1968 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic to calculate airborne transmission probabilities.

The aims of this study were to statistically reassess the likelihood that windborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus (FMDV) occurred at the start of the UK 1967 to 1968 FMD epidemic at Oswestry, Shropshire, and to derive dose-response probability of infection curves for farms exposed to airborne FMDV. To enable this, data on all farms present in 1967 in the parishes near Oswestry were assembled. Cases were infected premises whose date of appearance of first clinical signs was within 14 days of the depopulation of the index farm. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between infection status and distance and direction from the index farm. The UK Met Office's NAME atmospheric dispersion model (ADM) was used to generate plumes for each day that FMDV was excreted from the index farm based on actual historical weather records from October 1967. Daily airborne FMDV exposure rates for all farms in the study area were calculated using a geographical information system. Probit analyses were used to calculate dose-response probability of infection curves to FMDV, using relative exposure rates on case and control farms. Both the logistic regression and probit analyses gave strong statistical support to the hypothesis that airborne spread occurred. There was some evidence that incubation period was inversely proportional to the exposure rate.

Possible means of introduction of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) to Sweden in August 2008: comparison of results from two models for atmospheric transport of the Culicoides vector.

In September 2008, bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) infection was detected for the first time in Sweden, in a dairy herd on the west coast. Two different previously published operational atmospheric dispersion models indicate that midges from infected regions in Europe are likely to have reached Sweden by atmospheric transport during an estimated infection window. Both models indicated that the likely dates for the incursion of midges were overnight on August 6 to 7 and August 14 to 15; however, the less constrained model indicated a number of additional possible dates. The distribution of infected herds detected by active surveillance coincides with the regions that were indicated by the models to have been reached by midges from regions in Denmark and Germany with infected herds. It is likely that several points of introduction of infected midges occurred, possibly on different occasions. No alternative routes for introduction of the infection to Sweden were identified, supporting the theory that BTV-8 was introduced by infected midges carried by the wind.