Range-wide sources of variation in reproductive rates of northern spotted owls.

We conducted a range-wide investigation of the dynamics of site-level reproductive rate of northern spotted owls using survey data from 11 study areas across the subspecies geographic range collected during 1993-2018. Our analytical approach accounted for imperfect detection of owl pairs and misclassification of successful reproduction (i.e., at least one young fledged) and contributed further insights into northern spotted owl population ecology and dynamics. Both nondetection and state misclassification were important, especially because factors affecting these sources of error also affected focal ecological parameters. Annual probabilities of site occupancy were greatest at sites with successful reproduction in the previous year and lowest for sites not occupied by a pair in the previous year. Site-specific occupancy transition probabilities declined over time and were negatively affected by barred owl presence. Overall, the site-specific probability of successful reproduction showed substantial year-to-year fluctuations and was similar for occupied sites that did or did not experience successful reproduction the previous year. Site-specific probabilities for successful reproduction were very small for sites that were unoccupied the previous year. Barred owl presence negatively affected the probability of successful reproduction by northern spotted owls in Washington and California, as predicted, but the effect in Oregon was mixed. The proportions of sites occupied by northern spotted owl pairs showed steep, near-monotonic declines over the study period, with all study areas showing the lowest observed levels of occupancy to date. If trends continue it is likely that northern spotted owls will become extirpated throughout large portions of their range in the coming decades.

Transforming Industrial Manipulators via Kinesthetic Guidance for Automated Inspection of Complex Geometries.

The increased demand for cost-efficient manufacturing and metrology inspection solutions for complex-shaped components in High-Value Manufacturing (HVM) sectors requires increased production throughput and precision. This drives the integration of automated robotic solutions. However, the current manipulators utilizing traditional programming approaches demand specialized robotic programming knowledge and make it challenging to generate complex paths and adapt easily to unique specifications per component, resulting in an inflexible and cumbersome teaching process. Therefore, this body of work proposes a novel software system to realize kinesthetic guidance for path planning in real-time intervals at 250 Hz, utilizing an external off-the-shelf force-torque (FT) sensor. The proposed work is demonstrated on a 500 mm2 near-net-shaped Wire-Arc Additive Manufacturing (WAAM) complex component with embedded defects by teaching the inspection path for defect detection with a standard industrial robotic manipulator in a collaborative fashion and adaptively generating the kinematics resulting in the uniform coupling of ultrasound inspection. The utilized method proves superior in performance and speed, accelerating the programming time using online and offline approaches by an estimate of 88% to 98%. The proposed work is a unique development, retrofitting current industrial manipulators into collaborative entities, securing human job resources, and achieving flexible production.

Identifying Defects in Aerospace Composite Sandwich Panels Using High-Definition Distributed Optical Fibre Sensors.

Automated methods for detecting defects within composite materials are highly desirable in the drive to increase throughput, optimise repair program effectiveness and reduce component replacement. Tap-testing has traditionally been used for detecting defects but does not provide quantitative measurements, requiring secondary techniques such as ultrasound to certify components. This paper reports on an evaluation of the use of a distributed temperature measurement system-high-definition fibre optic sensing (HD-FOS)-to identify and characterise crushed core and disbond defects in carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP)-skin, aluminium-core, sandwich panels. The objective is to identify these defects in a sandwich panel by measuring the heat transfer through the panel thickness. A heater mat is used to rapidly increase the temperature of the panel with the HD-FOS sensor positioned on the top surface, measuring temperature. HD-FOS measurements are made using the Luna optical distributed sensor interrogator (ODISI) 9100 system comprising a sensor fabricated using standard single mode fibre (SMF)-20 of external diameter 250 µm, including the cladding. Results show that areas in which defects are present modulate thermal conductivity, resulting in a lower surface temperature. The resultant data are analysed to identify the length, width and type of defect. The non-invasive technique is amenable to application in challenging operational settings, offering high-resolution visualisation and defect classification.

Illegal killing for ivory drives global decline in African elephants.

Illegal wildlife trade has reached alarming levels globally, extirpating populations of commercially valuable species. As a driver of biodiversity loss, quantifying illegal harvest is essential for conservation and sociopolitical affairs but notoriously difficult. Here we combine field-based carcass monitoring with fine-scale demographic data from an intensively studied wild African elephant population in Samburu, Kenya, to partition mortality into natural and illegal causes. We then expand our analytical framework to model illegal killing rates and population trends of elephants at regional and continental scales using carcass data collected by a Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species program. At the intensively monitored site, illegal killing increased markedly after 2008 and was correlated strongly with the local black market ivory price and increased seizures of ivory destined for China. More broadly, results from application to continental data indicated illegal killing levels were unsustainable for the species between 2010 and 2012, peaking to ∼ 8% in 2011 which extrapolates to ∼ 40,000 elephants illegally killed and a probable species reduction of ∼ 3% that year. Preliminary data from 2013 indicate overharvesting continued. In contrast to the rest of Africa, our analysis corroborates that Central African forest elephants experienced decline throughout the last decade. These results provide the most comprehensive assessment of illegal ivory harvest to date and confirm that current ivory consumption is not sustainable. Further, our approach provides a powerful basis to determine cryptic mortality and gain understanding of the demography of at-risk species.

Estimating the encounter rate variance in distance sampling.

The dominant source of variance in line transect sampling is usually the encounter rate variance. Systematic survey designs are often used to reduce the true variability among different realizations of the design, but estimating the variance is difficult and estimators typically approximate the variance by treating the design as a simple random sample of lines. We explore the properties of different encounter rate variance estimators under random and systematic designs. We show that a design-based variance estimator improves upon the model-based estimator of Buckland et al. (2001, Introduction to Distance Sampling. Oxford: Oxford University Press, p. 79) when transects are positioned at random. However, if populations exhibit strong spatial trends, both estimators can have substantial positive bias under systematic designs. We show that poststratification is effective in reducing this bias.

Etiology and pathophysiology of new-onset heart failure: evaluation by myocardial perfusion imaging.

OBJECTIVE: The IMAGING in Heart Failure study was a prospective, multi-national trial designed to explore the role of single-photon emission computed tomographic (SPECT) myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) as an initial investigative strategy in patients hospitalized with new-onset heart failure. METHODS: We recruited 201 patients (age 65.3 +/- 14.5 years, 43% women) hospitalized with their first episode of heart failure. Rest/stress gated SPECT Tc-99m sestamibi MPI was performed during or within 2 weeks of the index hospitalization, in addition to standard care. RESULTS: SPECT MPI revealed a broad range of ejection fractions with preserved systolic function in 36% of patients. Forty-one percent of patients had normal perfusion. In the remaining patients, perfusion abnormalities were predominantly due to prior myocardial infarction, with extensive ischemia seen only in 6%. Among patients who underwent coronary angiography, SPECT performance characteristics revealed excellent negative predictive value (96%) for extensive coronary artery disease (CAD). In multivariable analyses, the extent of perfusion abnormality and advancing age predicted the presence of extensive CAD. CONCLUSIONS: These preliminary data derived from a non-randomized observational cohort suggest potential diagnostic utility of MPI for ischemic LV dysfunction in new-onset HF, and sets the stage for a prospective randomized study to confirm these findings.

A meta-BACI approach for evaluating management intervention on chronic wasting disease in mule deer.

Advances in acquiring and analyzing the spatial attributes of data have greatly enhanced the potential utility of wildlife disease surveillance data for addressing problems of ecological or economic importance. We present an approach for using wildlife disease surveillance data to identify areas for (or of) intervention, to spatially delineate paired treatment and control areas, and then to analyze these nonrandomly selected sites in a meta-analysis framework via before-after-control impact (BACI) estimates of effect size. We apply these methods to evaluate the effectiveness of attempts to reduce chronic wasting disease (CWD) prevalence through intensive localized culling of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in north-central Colorado, USA. Areas where surveillance data revealed high prevalence or case clusters were targeted by state wildlife management agency personnel for focal scale (on average <17 km2) culling, primarily via agency sharpshooters. Each area of sustained culling that we could also identify as unique by cluster analysis was considered a potential treatment area. Treatment areas, along with spatially paired control areas that we constructed post hoc in a case-control design (collectively called "management evaluation sites"), were then delineated using home range estimators. Using meta-BACI analysis of CWD prevalence data for all management evaluation sites, the mean effect size (change of prevalence on treatment areas minus change in prevalence on their paired control areas) was 0.03 (SE = 0.03); mean effect size on treatment areas was not greater than on paired control areas. Excluding cull samples from prevalence estimates or allowing for an equal or greater two-year lag in system responses to management did not change this outcome. We concluded that management benefits were not evident, although whether this represented true ineffectiveness or was a result of lack of data or insufficient duration of treatment could not be discerned. Based on our observations, we offer recommendations for designing a management experiment with 80% power to detect a 0.10 drop in prevalence over a 6-12-year period.

Safety and feasibility of using serial infusions of nesiritide for heart failure in an outpatient setting (from the FUSION I trial).

The Follow-Up Serial Infusions of Nesiritide pilot study was designed to assess the safety and tolerability of outpatient serial infusions of nesiritide in 210 patients with decompensated heart failure who were randomly assigned to usual care only or usual care plus weekly infusions of nesiritide at dosages of 0.005 or 0.01 microg/kg/min for 12 weeks. The mean age +/- SD of the entire population was 67 +/- 13 years; 70% were men, and 80% were white. Mean baseline serum creatinine levels were 1.8 +/- 0.7 mg/dl, and mean left ventricular ejection fraction was 0.28 +/- 0.15%. Diabetes mellitus was present in 106 patients (50%), and atrial arrhythmias were present in 100 patients (48%). A totalof 1,645 nesiritide infusions was administered; 11 (< 1%) were discontinued due to an adverse event. All treatment groups had a similar frequency of adverse events and experienced improvements in quality of life. Administration of nesiritide resulted in acute decreases in aldosterone and endothelin-1 concentrations. Although there were no statistically significant differences among groups by outcome, prospectively defined higher risk subgroups demonstrated significant decreases in cardiovascular events. These results demonstrate the safety and feasibility of administering nesiritide in an outpatient setting. Additional studies are needed to determine the effect of outpatient serial infusions of nesiritide on rates of morbidity and mortality in advanced heart failure.

Comparison of changes in ejection fraction to changes in impedance cardiography cardiac index and systolic time ratio.

Ejection fraction (EF) is the most common measure of left ventricular function in patients with heart failure. However, serial measurements of EF are costly and not practical for guiding frequent management decisions. Impedance cardiography (ICG) provides noninvasive hemodynamic measures with proven validity. The purpose of this study was to assess how changes in ICG parameters compared with changes in EF in heart failure subjects enrolled in a comprehensive outpatient management program. Retrospective chart review identified 13 subjects with two sets of paired echocardiography and ICG measurements (before and after treatment in an outpatient heart failure clinic setting). Mean age was 69+/-11 years, etiology was 54% ischemic heart disease, and mean New York Heart Association class was 2.5+/-0.5. The mean time between pre- and posttreatment EF measurements was 198+/-161 days. Changes in cardiac index and systolic time ratio by ICG were compared with changes in EF by echocardiography. From entry to final measurement, mean EF improved 9%+/-13%. Seven (54%) subjects had >5% improvement in EF, three (23%) had >5% decrease, and three had <5% change. Changes in ICG cardiac index and systolic time ratio were highly correlated with changes in EF (0.85, -0.73). ICG may be a practical, reliable, and cost-effective method of monitoring left ventricular function and guiding management decisions.

Simulation of ultrasonic lamb wave generation, propagation and detection for a reconfigurable air coupled scanner.

A computer simulator, to facilitate the design and assessment of a reconfigurable, air-coupled ultrasonic scanner is described and evaluated. The specific scanning system comprises a team of remote sensing agents, in the form of miniature robotic platforms that can reposition non-contact Lamb wave transducers over a plate type of structure, for the purpose of non-destructive evaluation (NDE). The overall objective is to implement reconfigurable array scanning, where transmission and reception are facilitated by different sensing agents which can be organised in a variety of pulse-echo and pitch-catch configurations, with guided waves used to generate data in the form of 2-D and 3-D images. The ability to reconfigure the scanner adaptively requires an understanding of the ultrasonic wave generation, its propagation and interaction with potential defects and boundaries. Transducer behaviour has been simulated using a linear systems approximation, with wave propagation in the structure modelled using the local interaction simulation approach (LISA). Integration of the linear systems and LISA approaches are validated for use in Lamb wave scanning by comparison with both analytic techniques and more computationally intensive commercial finite element/difference codes. Starting with fundamental dispersion data, the paper goes on to describe the simulation of wave propagation and the subsequent interaction with artificial defects and plate boundaries, before presenting a theoretical image obtained from a team of sensing agents based on the current generation of sensors and instrumentation.

Distance software: design and analysis of distance sampling surveys for estimating population size.

1.Distance sampling is a widely used technique for estimating the size or density of biological populations. Many distance sampling designs and most analyses use the software Distance.2.We briefly review distance sampling and its assumptions, outline the history, structure and capabilities of Distance, and provide hints on its use.3.Good survey design is a crucial prerequisite for obtaining reliable results. Distance has a survey design engine, with a built-in geographic information system, that allows properties of different proposed designs to be examined via simulation, and survey plans to be generated.4.A first step in analysis of distance sampling data is modelling the probability of detection. Distance contains three increasingly sophisticated analysis engines for this: conventional distance sampling, which models detection probability as a function of distance from the transect and assumes all objects at zero distance are detected; multiple-covariate distance sampling, which allows covariates in addition to distance; and mark-recapture distance sampling, which relaxes the assumption of certain detection at zero distance.5.All three engines allow estimation of density or abundance, stratified if required, with associated measures of precision calculated either analytically or via the bootstrap.6.Advanced analysis topics covered include the use of multipliers to allow analysis of indirect surveys (such as dung or nest surveys), the density surface modelling analysis engine for spatial and habitat modelling, and information about accessing the analysis engines directly from other software.7.Synthesis and applications. Distance sampling is a key method for producing abundance and density estimates in challenging field conditions. The theory underlying the methods continues to expand to cope with realistic estimation situations. In step with theoretical developments, state-of-the-art software that implements these methods is described that makes the methods accessible to practising ecologists.

The role of geographic information systems in wildlife landscape epidemiology: models of chronic wasting disease in Colorado mule deer.

The authors present findings from two landscape epidemiology studies of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in northern Colorado mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus). First, the effects of human land use on disease prevalence were explored by formulating a set of models estimating CWD prevalence in relation to differences in human land use, sex and geographic location. Prevalence was higher in developed areas and among male deer suggesting that anthropogenic influences (changes in land use), differences in exposure risk between sexes and landscape-scaled heterogeneity are associated with CWD prevalence. The second study focused on identifying scales of mule deer movement and mixing that had the greatest influence on the spatial pattern of CWD in north-central Colorado. The authors hypothesised that three scales of mixing - individual, winter subpopulation and summer subpopulation - might control spatial variation in disease prevalence. A fully Bayesian hierarchical model was developed to compare the strength of evidence for each mixing scale. Strong evidence was found indicating that the finest mixing scale corresponded best to the observed spatial distribution of CWD prevalence. This analysis demonstrates how information on the scales of spatial processes that generate observed patterns can be used to gain insight into the epidemiology of wildlife diseases when process data are sparse or unavailable.

Review of capture-recapture methods applicable to noninvasive genetic sampling.

The use of noninvasive genetic sampling to identify individual animals for capture-recapture studies has become widespread in the past decade. Strong emphasis has been placed on the field protocols and genetic analyses with fruitful results. Little attention has been paid to the capture-recapture application for this specific type of data beyond stating the effects of assumption violations. Here, we review the broad class of capture-recapture methods that are available for use with DNA-based capture-recapture data, noting the array of biologically interesting parameters such as survival, emigration rates, state transition rates and the finite rate of population change that can be estimated from such data. We highlight recent developments in capture-recapture theory specifically designed for noninvasive genetic sampling data.