The future burden of oesophageal and stomach cancers attributable to modifiable behaviours in Australia: a pooled cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We quantified the individual and joint contribution of contemporaneous causal behavioural exposures on the future burden of oesophageal and stomach cancers and their subtypes and assessed whether these burdens differ between population groups in Australia, as such estimates are currently lacking. METHODS: We combined hazard ratios from seven pooled Australian cohorts (N = 367,058) linked to national cancer and death registries with exposure prevalence from the 2017-2018 National Health Survey to estimate Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), accounting for competing risk of death. RESULTS: Current and past smoking explain 35.2% (95% CI = 11.7-52.4%), current alcohol consumption exceeding three drinks/day 15.7% (95% CI = 0.9-28.4%), and these exposures jointly 41.4% (95% CI = 19.8-57.3%) of oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas in Australia. Current and past smoking contribute 38.2% (95% CI = 9.4-57.9%), obesity 27.0% (95% CI = 0.6-46.4%), and these exposures jointly 54.4% (95% CI = 25.3-72.1%) of oesophageal adenocarcinomas. Overweight and obesity explain 36.1% (95% CI = 9.1-55.1%), current and past smoking 24.2% (95% CI = 4.2-40.0%), and these exposures jointly 51.2% (95% CI = 26.3-67.8%) of stomach cardia cancers. Several population groups had a significantly higher smoking-attributable oesophageal cancer burden, including men and those consuming excessive alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking is the leading preventable behavioural cause of oesophageal cancers and overweight/obesity of stomach cancers.

Thyroid cancers potentially preventable by reducing overweight and obesity in Australia: A pooled cohort study.

Thyroid cancer incidence and the prevalence of overweight and obesity are increasing, but the future thyroid cancer burden attributable to contemporary levels of overweight and obesity has not been evaluated before. We quantified this burden in Australia, and assessed whether the overweight/obesity-attributable burden differed by sex or other population subgroupings. We estimated the strength of the associations of overweight and obesity with thyroid cancer with adjusted proportional hazards models using pooled data from seven Australian cohorts (N = 367 058) with 431 thyroid cancer cases ascertained from linked national cancer registry data during a maximum 22-year follow-up. We combined these estimates with nationally representative 2017 to 2018 estimates of overweight and obesity prevalence to estimate population attributable fractions (PAFs) of future thyroid cancers attributable to overweight and obesity, accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups. Contemporary levels of overweight and obesity explain 18.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.2%-30.2%), and obesity alone 13.7% (95% CI: 5.2%-21.4%), of the future thyroid cancer burden. The obesity-attributable thyroid cancer burden is 21.4% (95% CI: 2.8%-36.5%) for men and 10.1% (95% CI: 0.8%-18.6%) for women. Were the currently obese overweight instead, 9.9% (95% CI: 1.0%-18.1%) of thyroid cancers could be avoided. The relative overweight/obesity-attributable burden is higher for those consuming on average more than two alcoholic drinks per day (63.4%) and for those who are not married/co-habiting (33.2%). In conclusion, avoiding excess weight, especially obesity, should be a priority for thyroid cancer prevention. Further studies, with findings stratified by tumour size, may reveal the potential role of overdiagnosis in our results.

Medications use among women with dementia: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Older population with dementia use huge range of medications. In this study, we aimed to determine the prevalence of commonly used medications a year before and after first recorded dementia diagnosis among older Australian women. METHODS: The study utilized Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) data from 2090 women with known dementia, linked with administrative health datasets. The Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) data provided detailed information about prescribed medications. We applied latent class analysis (LCA) to the post-dementia data to identify patterns of medication use. Logistic regression model was used to explore the impact of potential predictors for medication utilization. RESULTS: Antipsychotic use increased from 5% before dementia to 19% after dementia, while antidementia medication use increased from < 1 to 28%. There was a modest increase in benzodiazepines and antidepressants. Post-dementia, four distinct groups were identified using LCA (names based on probabilities of medications use) as: "High Psychotropic-Low Cardiovascular" (16% of the sample); "Moderate Psychotropic-High Cardiovascular" (12%); "Low Psychotropic-High Cardiovascular" (27%); and "Low Psychotropic-Low Cardiovascular" (45%). Living in Residential Aged Care (RAC) and frailty were associated with increased odds of being in the higher psychotropic use groups. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial utilization of psychotropic medications by older people with dementia indicates a need for a careful review of the use of these medications. Appropriate alternative approaches to the management of dementia should be practiced with a special focus on RAC residents with frailty.

Determinants of driving among oldest-old Australian women.

This study examined predictors of driving among oldest-old Australian women in their late 80s in accordance with the World Health Organization's healthy aging framework. The study used data from the 1921-26 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, wave-6 (n = 4025). The result of the multivariable logistic regression showed providing care, living alone, volunteering, living in rural/outer regional Australia, having higher educational attainment, and social interactions were associated with driving. The findings indicate driving should not be dismissed based on age alone. Policymakers need to also consider social roles, driving environment and context with the goals of healthy aging.

BMI trajectory and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes among middle-aged women.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Little is known about how weight trajectories among women during menopausal transition and beyond may be related to risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The aim of this study was to examine associations between body mass index (BMI) trajectories over 20 years, age of obesity onset, cumulative obese-years and incidence of T2DM among middle-aged women. METHODS AND RESULTS: 12,302 women enrolled in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) were surveyed in 1996 (Survey 1, age 45-50), 1998 and then every three years to 2016. Self-reported weight and height were collected for up to eight time points. Incident diabetes was assessed via validated self-report of physician-diagnosed diabetes. Growth mixture models were used to identify distinct BMI trajectories. A total of 1380 (11.2%) women newly developed T2DM over an average 16 years of follow-up. Seven distinct BMI trajectories were identified with differential risk of developing T2DM. Initial BMI was positively associated with T2DM risk. We also observed that risk of T2DM was positively associated with rapid weight increase, early age of obesity onset and greater obese-years. CONCLUSION: Slowing down weight increases, delaying the onset of obesity, or reducing cumulative exposure to obesity may substantially lower the risk of developing T2DM.

Utility estimations of health states of older Australian women with atrial fibrillation using SF-6D.

PURPOSE: To estimate SF-6D utility scores for older women with atrial fibrillation (AF); calculate and compare mean utility scores for women with AF with various demographic, health behaviours, and clinical characteristics; and develop a multivariable regression model to determine factors associated with SF-6D utility scores. METHODS: This study evaluated N = 1432 women diagnosed with AF from 2000 to 2015 of the old cohort (born 1921-26) of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) who remained alive for at least 12 months post first recorded AF diagnosis. Self-reported data on demographics, health behaviours, health conditions, and SF-36 were obtained from the ALSWH surveys, corresponding to within three years of the date of the first record of AF diagnosis. Linked Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) data determined the use of oral anticoagulants and comorbid conditions, included in CHA2DS2-VA (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥ 75 years, Diabetes, Stroke or TIA, Vascular disease and Age 65-74 years) score calculation, were assessed using state-based hospital admissions data. Utility scores were calculated for every woman from their SF-36 responses using the SF-6D algorithm with Australian population norms. Mean utility scores were then calculated for women with various demographic, health behaviours, and clinical characteristics. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression modelling was performed to determine factors associated with these utility scores. Two different scenarios were used for the analysis: (1) complete-case, for women with complete data on all the SF-36 items required to estimate SF-6D (N = 584 women), and (2) Multiple Imputation (MI) for missing data, applied to missing values on SF-36 items (N = 1432 women). MI scenario was included to gauge the potential bias when using complete data only. RESULTS: The mean health utility was estimated to be 0.638 ± 0.119 for the complete dataset and 0.642 ± 0.120 for the dataset where missing values were handled using MI. Using the MI technique, living in regional and remote areas ([Formula: see text]) and the use of oral anticoagulants ([Formula: see text] were positively associated with health utility compared to living in major cities and no use of anticoagulants, respectively. Difficulty to manage on available income [Formula: see text], no/low physical activity [Formula: see text], disability [Formula: see text], history of stroke ([Formula: see text] and history of arthritis [Formula: see text] were negatively associated with health utility. CONCLUSION: This study presents health utility estimates for older women with AF. These estimates can be used in future clinical and economic research. The study also highlights better health utilities for women living in regional and remote areas, which requires further exploration.

Exposure to heavy metals from point pollution sources and risk of incident type 2 diabetes among women: a prospective cohort analysis.

Heavy metal exposures may contribute to diabetes risk but prospective studies are uncommon. We analyzed the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (three cohorts aged 18-23, 45-50, or 70-75 at baseline in 1996, N = 34,191) merged with emissions data for 10 heavy metals (As, Be, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn) from the National Pollutant Inventory. Over 20-year follow-up, 2,584 women (7.6%) reported incident diabetes. Cox proportional hazards regression models showed that women aged 45-50 at baseline had higher diabetes risk in association with exposure to total air emissions, total water emissions, all individual metals air emissions, and six individual water emissions. After correction for false discovery rate, nine of 11 air emissions and five water emissions remained significant. Associations were not observed for land-based emissions, or for younger or older cohorts. Emissions were dominated by mining, electricity generation and other metals-related industrial processes.

Age of obesity onset, cumulative obesity exposure over early adulthood and risk of type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Obesity is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes, yet little is known about how timing and cumulative exposure of obesity are related to disease risk. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between BMI trajectories, age of onset of obesity and obese-years (a product of degree and duration of obesity) over early adulthood and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Women aged 18-23 years at baseline (n = 11,192) enrolled in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) in 1996 were followed up about every 3 years via surveys for up to 19 years. Self-reported weights were collected up to seven times. Incident type 2 diabetes was self-reported. A growth mixture model was used to identify distinct BMI trajectories over the early adult life course. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the associations between trajectories and risk of diabetes. RESULTS: One hundred and sixty-two (1.5%) women were newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes during a mean of 16 years of follow-up. Six distinct BMI trajectories were identified, varying by different initial BMI and different slopes of increase. Initial BMI was positively associated with risk of diabetes. We also observed that age at onset of obesity was negatively associated with risk of diabetes (HR 0.87 [95% CI 0.79, 0.96] per 1 year increment), and number of obese-years was positively associated with diabetes (p for trend <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our data revealed the importance of timing of obesity, and cumulative exposure to obesity in the development of type 2 diabetes in young women, suggesting that preventing or delaying the onset of obesity and reducing cumulative exposure to obesity may substantially lower the risk of developing diabetes.

The future burden of kidney and bladder cancers preventable by behavior modification in Australia: A pooled cohort study.

Substantial changes in the prevalence of the principal kidney and bladder cancer risk factors, smoking (both cancers) and body fatness (kidney cancer), have occurred but the contemporary cancer burden attributable to these factors has not been evaluated. We quantified the kidney and bladder cancer burden attributable to individual and joint exposures and assessed whether these burdens differ between population subgroups. We linked pooled data from seven Australian cohorts (N = 367,058) to national cancer and death registries and estimated the strength of the associations between exposures and cancer using adjusted proportional hazards models. We estimated exposure prevalence from representative contemporaneous health surveys. We combined these estimates to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups. During the first 10-year follow-up, 550 kidney and 530 bladder cancers were diagnosed and over 21,000 people died from any cause. Current levels of overweight and obesity explain 28.8% (CI = 17.3-38.7%), current or past smoking 15.5% (CI = 6.0-24.1%) and these exposures jointly 39.6% (CI = 27.5-49.7%) of the kidney cancer burden. Current or past smoking explains 44.4% (CI = 35.4-52.1%) of the bladder cancer burden, with 24.4% attributable to current smoking. Ever smoking explains more than half (53.4%) of the bladder cancer burden in men, and the burden potentially preventable by quitting smoking is highest in men (30.4%), those aged <65 years (28.0%) and those consuming >2 standard alcoholic drinks/day (41.2%). In conclusion, large fractions of kidney and bladder cancers in Australia are preventable by behavior change.

Latent Class Analysis of Low Birth Weight and Preterm Delivery among Australian Women.

OBJECTIVES: To identify patterns of health, socioeconomic, behavioral, and psychosocial indicators that may be associated with low birth weight delivery or preterm birth. STUDY DESIGN: Data were analyzed from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. A total of 9075 live singleton births among 3801 women were linked to state perinatal records with birth outcome data. Survey data were used to identify 11 indicators for latent class analysis. Latent classes were tested for association to birth outcomes. These indicators also were used along with covariates in main effect multiple logistic regression analyses of birth outcomes. RESULTS: Latent class analysis revealed 5 classes, including those characterized by low education, recent drug use, stress/anxiety/depression, smoking/drinking/low education/multi-risk, and a low risk referent group. The stress/anxiety/depression class was associated with preterm delivery (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.20-2.92), and the smoking/drinking/low education/multirisk class was associated with low birth weight (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.02-2.30). Traditional logistic regression analyses for main effects identified some measures not captured by the latent classes, and the latent classes identified variable combinations not captured by the main effect analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Unique latent classes were associated with preterm delivery vs low birth weight. Both latent class analysis and main effects analyses may be combined to improve understanding of birth outcome risks. Clinical and programmatic interventions to reduce risks of low birth weight and preterm delivery may benefit from risk profiles that women experience.

Better diet quality scores are associated with a lower risk of hypertension and non-fatal CVD in middle-aged Australian women over 15 years of follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: To explore if better diet quality scores as a measure of adherence to the Australian Dietary Guidelines (ADG) and the Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) are associated with a lower incidence of hypertension and non-fatal CVD. DESIGN: Prospective analysis of the 1946-1951 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH). The Australian Recommended Foods Score (ARFS) was calculated as an indicator of adherence to the ADG; the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) measured adherence to the MedDiet. Outcomes included hypertension and non-fatal CVD. Generalised estimating equations estimated OR and 95 % CI across quartiles of diet quality scores. SETTING: Australia, 2001-2016. PARTICIPANTS: 1946-1951 cohort of the ALSWH (n 5324), without CVD, hypertension and diabetes at baseline (2001), with complete FFQ data. RESULTS: There were 1342 new cases of hypertension and 629 new cases of non-fatal CVD over 15 years of follow-up. Multivariate analysis indicated that women reporting better adherence to the ARFS (≥38/74) had 15 % (95 % CI 1, 28 %; P = 0·05) lower odds of hypertension and 46 % (95 % CI 6, 66 %; P = 0·1) lower odds of non-fatal CVD. Women reporting better adherence to the MDS (≥8/17) had 27 % (95 % CI 15, 47 %; P = 0·0006) lower odds of hypertension and 30 % (95 % CI 2, 50 %; P = 0·03) lower odds of non-fatal CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Better adherence to diet quality scores is associated with lower risk of hypertension and non-fatal CVD. These results support the need for updated evidenced based on the ADG as well as public health nutrition policies in Australia.

The preventable burden of breast cancers for premenopausal and postmenopausal women in Australia: A pooled cohort study.

Estimates of the future breast cancer burden preventable through modifications to current behaviours are lacking. We assessed the effect of individual and joint behaviour modifications on breast cancer burden for premenopausal and postmenopausal Australian women, and whether effects differed between population subgroups. We linked pooled data from six Australian cohort studies (n = 214,536) to national cancer and death registries, and estimated the strength of the associations between behaviours causally related to cancer incidence and death using adjusted proportional hazards models. We estimated exposure prevalence from representative health surveys. We combined these estimates to calculate Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and compared PAFs for population subgroups. During the first 10 years follow-up, there were 640 incident breast cancers for premenopausal women, 2,632 for postmenopausal women, and 8,761 deaths from any cause. Of future breast cancers for premenopausal women, any regular alcohol consumption explains 12.6% (CI = 4.3-20.2%), current use of oral contraceptives for ≥5 years 7.1% (CI = 0.3-13.5%), and these factors combined 18.8% (CI = 9.1-27.4%). Of future breast cancers for postmenopausal women, overweight or obesity (BMI ≥25 kg/m2 ) explains 12.8% (CI = 7.8-17.5%), current use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) 6.9% (CI = 4.8-8.9%), any regular alcohol consumption 6.6% (CI = 1.5-11.4%), and these factors combined 24.2% (CI = 17.6-30.3%). The MHT-related postmenopausal breast cancer burden varied by body fatness, alcohol consumption and socio-economic status, the body fatness-related postmenopausal breast cancer burden by alcohol consumption and educational attainment, and the alcohol-related postmenopausal breast cancer burden by breast feeding history. Our results provide evidence to support targeted and population-level cancer control activities.

The preventable burden of endometrial and ovarian cancers in Australia: A pooled cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Evidence on the endometrial and ovarian cancer burden preventable through modifications to current causal behavioural and hormonal exposures is limited. Whether the burden differs by population subgroup is unknown. METHODS: We linked pooled data from six Australian cohort studies to national cancer and death registries, and quantified exposure-cancer associations using adjusted proportional hazards models. We estimated exposure prevalence from representative health surveys. We then calculated Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups. RESULTS: During a median 4.9 years follow-up, 510 incident endometrial and 303 ovarian cancers were diagnosed. Overweight and obesity explained 41.9% (95% CI 32.3-50.1) of the endometrial cancer burden and obesity alone 34.5% (95% CI 27.5-40.9). This translates to 12,800 and 10,500 endometrial cancers in Australia in the next 10 years, respectively. The body fatness-related endometrial cancer burden was highest (49-87%) among women with diabetes, living remotely, of older age, lower socio-economic status or educational attainment and born in Australia. Never use of oral contraceptives (OCs) explained 8.1% (95% CI 1.8-14.1) or 2500 endometrial cancers. A higher BMI and current long-term MHT use increased, and long-term OC use decreased, the risk of ovarian cancer, but the burden attributable to overweight, obesity or exogenous hormonal factors was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Excess body fatness, a trait that is of high and increasing prevalence globally, is responsible for a large proportion of the endometrial cancer burden, indicating the need for effective strategies to reduce adiposity.

The burden of pancreatic cancer in Australia attributable to smoking.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the burden of pancreatic cancer in Australia attributable to modifiable exposures, particularly smoking. DESIGN: Prospective pooled cohort study. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Seven prospective Australian study cohorts (total sample size, 365 084 adults); participant data linked to national registries to identify cases of pancreatic cancer and deaths. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Associations between exposures and incidence of pancreatic cancer, estimated in a proportional hazards model, adjusted for age, sex, study, and other exposures; future burden of pancreatic cancer avoidable by changes in exposure estimated as population attributable fractions (PAFs) for whole population and for specific population subgroups with a method accounting for competing risk of death. RESULTS: There were 604 incident cases of pancreatic cancer during the first 10 years of follow-up. Current and recent smoking explained 21.7% (95% CI, 13.8-28.9%) and current smoking alone explained 15.3% (95% CI, 8.6-22.6%) of future pancreatic cancer burden. This proportion of the burden would be avoidable over 25 years were current smokers to quit and there were no new smokers. The burden attributable to current smoking is greater for men (23.9%; 95% CI, 13.3-33.3%) than for women (7.2%; 95% CI, -0.4% to 14.2%; P = 0.007) and for those under 65 (19.0%; 95% CI, 8.1-28.6%) than for older people (6.6%; 95% CI, 1.9-11.1%; P = 0.030). There were no independent relationships between body mass index or alcohol consumption and pancreatic cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Strategies that reduce the uptake of smoking and encourage current smokers to quit could substantially reduce the future incidence of pancreatic cancer in Australia, particularly among men.

Air pollution exposures from multiple point sources and risk of incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to environmental air pollutants exacerbates respiratory illness, but prospective studies of disease incidence are uncommon. Further, attempts to estimate effects from multiple point sources have rarely been undertaken. The current study examined risk of incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma in association with emissions of multiple air pollutants from point pollution sources in Australia. METHODS: We analyzed prospective cohort data from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Women from three age-cohorts (N = 35,755) were followed for up to 21 years for incident COPD and asthma. Exposures were measured from the National Pollutant Inventory and included carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10). We identified inverse-distance weighted emissions in kilograms that women experienced over time from point sources within 10 km of their residences. Cox proportional hazards regression models examined risk of self-reported doctor-diagnosed COPD and asthma in association with pollutant exposures and covariates. RESULTS: New COPD cases numbered 3616 (11.5%) and new asthma cases numbered 2725 (9.4%). Participants were exposed to an average of 47-59 sites with air pollution emissions within 10 km of their residences. Fossil fuel electricity generation and mining made the largest contributions to air pollution but hundreds of other types of emissions also occurred. Controlling for covariates, all five air pollutants modeled individually were significantly associated with risk of COPD. Modeled jointly, only sulfur dioxide (SO2) remained significantly associated with COPD (HR = 1.038, 95% CI = 1.010-1.067), although the five pollutants were highly correlated (r = 0.89). None of the pollutants were significantly associated with adult onset asthma. Cohort-specific analyses indicated that COPD risk was significantly associated with SO2 exposure for younger (HR = 1.021, CI = 1.001-1.047), middle-age (HR = 1.019, CI = 1.004-1.034) and older cohorts (HR = 1.025, CI = 1.004-1.047). CONCLUSIONS: Multiple exposure sources and pollutants contributed to COPD risk, including electricity generation and mining but extending to many industrial processes. The results highlight the importance of policy efforts and technological improvements to reduce harmful air pollution emissions across the industrial landscape.

Successful ageing from old to very old: a longitudinal study of 12,432 women from Australia.

OBJECTIVES: We examined the development of disease and disability in a large cohort of older women, the extent to which these conditions exempt them from being classified as successful agers and different trajectories of disease, disability and longevity across women's later life. METHODS: We used survey data from 12,432 participants of the 1921-26 birth cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study of Women's Health from 1996 (age 70-75) to 2016 (age 90-95). Repeated measures latent class analysis (RMLCA) identified trajectories of the development of disease with or without disability and according to longevity. Bivariate analyses and multivariable multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine the association between participants' baseline characteristics and membership of the latent classes. RESULTS: Over one-third of women could be considered to be successful agers when in their early 70s, few women could still be classified in this category throughout their later life or by the end of the study when they were in their 90s (~1%). RMLCA identified six trajectory groups including managed agers long survivors (9.0%) with disease but little disability, usual agers long survivors (14.9%) with disease and disability, usual agers (26.6%) and early mortality (25.7%). A small group of women having no major disease or disability well into their 80s were identified as successful agers (5.5%). A final group, missing surveys (18.3%), had a high rate of non-death attrition. Groups were differentiated by a number of social and health factors including marital status, education, smoking, body mass index, exercise and social support. CONCLUSIONS: The study shows different trajectories of disease and disability in a cohort of ageing women, over time and through to very old ages. While some women continue into very old age with no disease or disability, many more women live long with disease but little disability, remaining independent beyond their capacity to be classified as successful agers.

Transitioning of older Australian women into and through the long-term care system: a cohort study using linked data.

BACKGROUND: Over two-thirds of older Australians use different types/levels of aged care at some point in later life. Our aims were to estimate transitional probabilities and to identify risk factors influencing the movement between different levels of long-term care. METHODS: The sample consisted of 9007 women from the 1921-26 birth cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Transitional probabilities between different levels of long-term care were estimated using a continuous-time Markov model. RESULTS: An 11-fold transition rates ratio was observed for the movement from non-user to home and community care (HACC) versus non-user to residential aged care (RAC). The predicted probabilities of remaining in the non-user state, HACC, and RAC after 10 years from the baseline were .28, .24, and .11, respectively. While the corresponding probabilities of dying from these states were .36, .65, and .90. The risk of transitioning from the non-user state to either HACC or RAC was greater for participants who were older at baseline, widowed, living outside of major cities, having difficulties in managing income, or having chronic condition, poor/fair self-rated health, or lower SF-36 scores (p < .05). CONCLUSION: Women spend a substantial period of their later life using long-term care. Typically, this will be in the community setting with a low level of care. The transition to either HACC or RAC was associated with several demographic and health-related factors. Our findings are important for the planning and improvement of long-term care among future generations of older people. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not applicable.

Patterns of Hospitalization Risk for Women Surviving Into Very Old Age: Findings From the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health.

BACKGROUND: By 2050, adults aged 80 years and over will represent around 20% of the global population. Little is known about how adults surviving into very old age use hospital services over time. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to examine patterns of hospital usage over a 10-year period for women who were aged 84 to 89 in 2010 and examine factors associated with increased use. METHODS: Survey data from 1936 women from the 1921 to 1926 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health were matched with the state-based Admitted Patients Data Collection. Hospital use profiles were determined using repeated measures latent class analysis. RESULTS: Four latent class trajectories were identified. One-quarter of the sample were at low risk of hospitalization, while 20.6% demonstrated increased risk of hospitalization and a further 38.1% had moderate hospitalization risk over time. Only 16.8% of the sample was classified as having high hospitalization risk. Correlates of hospital use for very old women differed according to hospital use class and were contingent on the timing of exposure (ie, short-term or long-term). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the perception that older adults place a significant burden on health care systems, the majority of women demonstrated relatively low hospital use over an extended period, even in the presence of chronic health conditions. High hospitalization risk was found to be concentrated among a small minority of these long-term survivors. The findings suggest the importance of service planning and treatment regimes that take account of the diverse trajectories of hospital use into and through advanced old age.

Change in physical function among women as they age: findings from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health.

PURPOSE: Decline in physical function is common in older age, with important consequences for health-related quality of life, health care utilisation, and mortality. This study aimed to identify patterns of change in physical functioning (PF) for women in later life. METHODS: PF was measured longitudinally using the ten-item subscale of the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short Form Health Survey, for 10 515 participants of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, who completed at least two surveys between 1999 (aged 73-78 years) and 2011 (aged 85-90 years). Conditional and unconditional latent profile analysis was conducted separately for deceased and surviving subgroups of women to uncover latent patterns of change in PF scores over time. RESULTS: Four patterns of change were identified for women who were still alive in 2011 (N = 5928), and four similar classes for deceased women (N = 4587): (1) 'poor PF' representing women with low PF scores, (2) 'moderate PF', (3) 'high PF', and (4) 'very high PF', where scores remained very high. All patterns exhibited a decrease in PF over time. Factors which predict low PF included sedentary levels of exercise, obese and overweight BMI, difficulty managing on income, and lower education. CONCLUSIONS: The results provided evidence for a gradual decrease in PF for all women with age; however, there was no evidence for an increased rate of decline prior to death.

Contextualizing urban living as a determinant of women's health in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Big cities can offer great opportunities for women to have a better life. At the same time, however, the physical and social environment in cities can negatively affect their health. We conducted focus groups with 24 women (aged 18-72 years) living in Jakarta, Indonesia from October to November 2014. Our aim was to elicit women's experiences of living in Jakarta, including their health and accessing health care. The most frequent health problems reported by women in this study were hypertension and arthritis. Women often gave priority to their family, particularly their children, over themselves and their own health. Discussants also thought that the city's physical and social conditions could affect their health, and that women were more prone to feel stress than men. The results of this study highlight the importance of addressing social determinants of health across the life course, including gender, to improve women's health status. Moreover, multi-sectoral collaboration at the municipal and national level is needed for urban planning to create better living conditions for women in the cities.