Projected soil carbon loss with warming in constrained Earth system models.

The soil carbon-climate feedback is currently the least constrained component of global warming projections, and the major source of uncertainties stems from a poor understanding of soil carbon turnover processes. Here, we assemble data from long-term temperature-controlled soil incubation studies to show that the arctic and boreal region has the shortest intrinsic soil carbon turnover time while tropical forests have the longest one, and current Earth system models overestimate intrinsic turnover time by 30 percent across active, slow and passive carbon pools. Our constraint suggests that the global soils will switch from carbon sink to source, with a loss of 0.22-0.53 petagrams of carbon per year until the end of this century from strong mitigation to worst emission scenarios, suggesting that global soils will provide a strong positive carbon feedback on warming. Such a reversal of global soil carbon balance would lead to a reduction of 66% and 15% in the current estimated remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming well below 1.5 °C and 2 °C, respectively, rendering climate mitigation much more difficult.

Nitrogen availability constrains grassland plant diversity in response to grazing.

Grassland plant diversity has been observed with divergent responses in grazing experiments around the world. However, the dominant role of nitrogen (N) availability in controlling this global variation has not been well explored, impeding our capacity to formulate effective strategies for preserving grassland plant diversity. Here, we synthesized data from 306 grazing experiments that measured plant diversity and soil N content across global grasslands. Overall, grazing reduced plant diversity by 7.63 %, with substantial variations observed across the dataset. Our study revealed that these contrasting effects were best explained by soil N change. Plant diversity under enhanced soil N showed a strong increase in response to grazing. We found that lower grazing intensity and higher background N deposition could collectively enhance soil N, thereby promoting diversity. These results suggest that while avoiding high grazing intensity is crucial in maintaining biodiversity of grazed grasslands, it alone is not sufficient. In regions with lower N deposition (< 500 mg N m-2 yr-1), additional management strategies that target improving soil fertility are needed. Our analysis propounds that local environmental conditions should be incorporated into decision-making of grassland biodiversity conservation, or ignoring this may lead to counterproductive impacts.

The Response of Shallow Groundwater Levels to Soil Freeze-Thaw Process on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

The Qinghai-Tibet plateau has the world's largest area of seasonally frozen ground. Here, shallow groundwater displays behavior that is distinct from that elsewhere in the world. In the present study, we explore the seasonal and interannual variation of the shallow groundwater levels from 2012 to 2016, and attempt to quantitatively evaluate the relative influences of individual driving factors on the shallow groundwater levels based on boosted regression trees. The results show that: (1) on a seasonal scale, the groundwater levels were characterized by a double peak and double valley relationship, while on an interannual scale the groundwater levels showed a slightly downwards trend from 2012 to 2016; and (2) during the frozen period, the seasonal variation of groundwater levels was determined by mean air temperature through its effect on the soil thaw-freeze process, accounting for 53.15% of total variation. Meanwhile, ET0 and rainfall exerted little impact on the seasonal variation of groundwater levels, which might be attributed to the aquitard of frozen soil that impedes the exchange between surface water and groundwater. Moreover, there was a lag between groundwater levels and soil freezing-thawing. During the non-frozen period, the mean air temperature was again the most important factor impacting the variation of groundwater levels, through its effect on ET0 , and accounted for 40.75% of total variation, while rainfall had little effect on groundwater levels when rainfall intensity was less than 12 mm/day. These results will benefit predictions of future trends in groundwater levels within the context of global warming.