Reduced plakoglobin increases the risk of sodium current defects and atrial conduction abnormalities in response to androgenic anabolic steroid abuse.

Androgenic anabolic steroids (AAS) are commonly abused by young men. Male sex and increased AAS levels are associated with earlier and more severe manifestation of common cardiac conditions, such as atrial fibrillation, and rare ones, such as arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC). Clinical observations suggest a potential atrial involvement in ARVC. Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy is caused by desmosomal gene defects, including reduced plakoglobin expression. Here, we analysed clinical records from 146 ARVC patients to identify that ARVC is more common in males than females. Patients with ARVC also had an increased incidence of atrial arrhythmias and P wave changes. To study desmosomal vulnerability and the effects of AAS on the atria, young adult male mice, heterozygously deficient for plakoglobin (Plako+/- ), and wild type (WT) littermates were chronically exposed to 5α-dihydrotestosterone (DHT) or placebo. The DHT increased atrial expression of pro-hypertrophic, fibrotic and inflammatory transcripts. In mice with reduced plakoglobin, DHT exaggerated P wave abnormalities, atrial conduction slowing, sodium current depletion, action potential amplitude reduction and the fall in action potential depolarization rate. Super-resolution microscopy revealed a decrease in NaV 1.5 membrane clustering in Plako+/- atrial cardiomyocytes after DHT exposure. In summary, AAS combined with plakoglobin deficiency cause pathological atrial electrical remodelling in young male hearts. Male sex is likely to increase the risk of atrial arrhythmia, particularly in those with desmosomal gene variants. This risk is likely to be exaggerated further by AAS use. KEY POINTS: Androgenic male sex hormones, such as testosterone, might increase the risk of atrial fibrillation in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC), which is often caused by desmosomal gene defects (e.g. reduced plakoglobin expression). In this study, we observed a significantly higher proportion of males who had ARVC compared with females, and atrial arrhythmias and P wave changes represented a common observation in advanced ARVC stages. In mice with reduced plakoglobin expression, chronic administration of 5α-dihydrotestosterone led to P wave abnormalities, atrial conduction slowing, sodium current depletion and a decrease in membrane-localized NaV 1.5 clusters. 5α-Dihydrotestosterone, therefore, represents a stimulus aggravating the pro-arrhythmic phenotype in carriers of desmosomal mutations and can affect atrial electrical function.

Single-center retrospective assessment of robotic-assisted simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplants: Exploring clinical utility.

The diabetic population is witnessing a rise in obesity rates, creating specific hurdles for individuals seeking pancreas transplantation because they are frequently disqualified due to their elevated body weight. Introducing a robotic-assisted approach to transplantation has been proven to yield improved outcomes, particularly in patients with obesity. A retrospective analysis was conducted between January 2015 and September 2023. The study included a total of 140 patients, with 16 receiving robotic-assisted simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplantation (RSPK) and 124 undergoing open approach simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplantation (OSPK) during the study period. The median age was 45 (36.8-52.7) and 44.5 years (36.8-51.8) (RSPK vs OSPK, P = .487). There were no significant differences in demographics except body mass index (RSPK vs OSPK, 34.9 vs 28.1, P < .001) and a higher percentage of patients with high cardiac risk in the RSPK group. The robotic approach has a lengthier overall operative time and warm ischemia time. Surgical and nonsurgical complications at 30-days and 1-year grafts and patient survival (93.8% vs 96.8%, RSPK vs OSPK, P = .521) were similar. Our findings suggest that employing robotic assistance in simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplantation is safe. Wider adoption and utilization of this technique could potentially improve transplant accessibility for individuals with obesity and diabetes.

30-day Morbidity and Mortality after Cholecystectomy for Benign Gallbladder Disease (AMBROSE): A Prospective, International Collaborative Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess 30-day morbidity and mortality rates following cholecystectomy for benign gallbladder disease and identify the factors associated with complications. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Although cholecystectomy is common for benign gallbladder disease, there is a gap in the knowledge of the current practice and variations on a global level. METHODS: A prospective, international, observational collaborative cohort study of consecutive patients undergoing cholecystectomy for benign gallbladder disease from participating hospitals in 57 countries between January 1 and June 30, 2022, was performed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify preoperative and operative variables associated with 30-day postoperative outcomes. RESULTS: Data of 21,706 surgical patients from 57 countries were included in the analysis. A total of 10,821 (49.9%), 4,263 (19.7%), and 6,622 (30.5%) cholecystectomies were performed in the elective, emergency, and delayed settings, respectively. Thirty-day postoperative complications were observed in 1,738 patients (8.0%), including mortality in 83 patients (0.4%). Bile leaks (Strasberg grade A) were reported in 278 (1.3%) patients and severe bile duct injuries (Strasberg grades B-E) were reported in 48 (0.2%) patients. Patient age, ASA physical status class, surgical setting, operative approach and Nassar operative difficulty grade were identified as the five predictors demonstrating the highest relative importance in predicting postoperative complications. CONCLUSION: This multinational observational collaborative cohort study presents a comprehensive report of the current practices and outcomes of cholecystectomy for benign gallbladder disease. Ongoing global collaborative evaluations and initiatives are needed to promote quality assurance and improvement in cholecystectomy.

Artificial intelligence to enhance clinical value across the spectrum of cardiovascular healthcare.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly being utilized in healthcare. This article provides clinicians and researchers with a step-wise foundation for high-value AI that can be applied to a variety of different data modalities. The aim is to improve the transparency and application of AI methods, with the potential to benefit patients in routine cardiovascular care. Following a clear research hypothesis, an AI-based workflow begins with data selection and pre-processing prior to analysis, with the type of data (structured, semi-structured, or unstructured) determining what type of pre-processing steps and machine-learning algorithms are required. Algorithmic and data validation should be performed to ensure the robustness of the chosen methodology, followed by an objective evaluation of performance. Seven case studies are provided to highlight the wide variety of data modalities and clinical questions that can benefit from modern AI techniques, with a focus on applying them to cardiovascular disease management. Despite the growing use of AI, further education for healthcare workers, researchers, and the public are needed to aid understanding of how AI works and to close the existing gap in knowledge. In addition, issues regarding data access, sharing, and security must be addressed to ensure full engagement by patients and the public. The application of AI within healthcare provides an opportunity for clinicians to deliver a more personalized approach to medical care by accounting for confounders, interactions, and the rising prevalence of multi-morbidity.

Authentication of fish oil (omega-3) supplements using class-oriented chemometrics and comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry.

Food supplement authentication is an important concern worldwide due to the ascending consumption related to health benefits and its lack of effective regulation in underdeveloped countries, making it a target of fraudulent activities. In this context, this study evaluated fish oil supplements by comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (GC×GC-MS) to obtain fingerprints, which were used to build predictive models for automated authentication of the most popular products sold in Brazil. The authentication process relied on a one-class classifier model using data-driven soft independent modeling of class analogy (DD-SIMCA). The output of the model was a binary classifier: certified IFOS fish oils and non-certified ones - regardless of the source of adulteration. The compositional analysis showed a significant variation in the samples, which validated the need for reliable statistical models. The DD-SIMCA algorithm is still incipient in GC×GC studies, but it proved to be an excellent tool for authenticity purposes, achieving a chemometric model with a sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 98.6%, and accuracy of 99.0% for fish oil authentication. Finally, orthogonalized partial least square discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) was used to identify the features that distinguished the groups, which ascertained the results of the DD-SIMCA model that IFOS-certified oils are positively correlated to omega-3 fatty acids, including eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA, C20:5 n-3) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA, C22:6 n-3).

Single-centre review of the management of intra-thoracic oesophageal perforation in a tertiary oesophageal unit: paradigm shift, short- and long-term outcomes over 15 years.

BACKGROUND: Oesophageal perforation is an uncommon surgical emergency associated with high morbidity and mortality. The timing and type of intervention is crucial and there has been a major paradigm shift towards minimal invasive management over the last 15 years. Herein, we review our management of spontaneous and iatrogenic oesophageal perforations and assess the short- and long-term outcomes. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of consecutive patients presenting with intra-thoracic oesophageal perforation between January 2004 and Dec 2020 in a single tertiary hospital. RESULTS: Seventy-four patients were identified with oesophageal perforations: 58.1% were male; mean age of 68.28 ± 13.67 years. Aetiology was spontaneous in 42 (56.76%), iatrogenic in 29 (39.2%) and foreign body ingestion/related to trauma in 3 (4.1%). The diagnosis was delayed in 29 (39.2%) cases for longer than 24 h. There was change in the primary diagnostic modality over the period of this study with CT being used for diagnosis for 19 of 20 patients (95%). Initial management of the oesophageal perforation included a surgical intervention in 34 [45.9%; primary closure in 28 (37.8%), resection in 6 (8.1%)], endoscopic stenting in 18 (24.3%) and conservative management in 22 (29.7%) patients. On multivariate analysis, there was an effect of pathology (malignant vs. benign; p = 0.003) and surgical treatment as first line (p = 0.048) on 90-day mortality. However, at 1-year and overall follow-up, time to presentation (≤ 24 h vs. > 24 h) remained the only significant variable (p = 0.017 & p = 0.02, respectively). CONCLUSION: Oesophageal perforation remains a condition with high mortality. The paradigm shift in our tertiary unit suggests the more liberal use of CT to establish an earlier diagnosis and a higher rate of oesophageal stenting as a primary management option for iatrogenic perforations. Time to diagnosis and management continues to be the most critical variable in the overall outcome.

Redefining ß-blocker response in heart failure patients with sinus rhythm and atrial fibrillation: a machine learning cluster analysis.

BACKGROUND: Mortality remains unacceptably high in patients with heart failure and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) despite advances in therapeutics. We hypothesised that a novel artificial intelligence approach could better assess multiple and higher-dimension interactions of comorbidities, and define clusters of ß-blocker efficacy in patients with sinus rhythm and atrial fibrillation. METHODS: Neural network-based variational autoencoders and hierarchical clustering were applied to pooled individual patient data from nine double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trials of ß blockers. All-cause mortality during median 1·3 years of follow-up was assessed by intention to treat, stratified by electrocardiographic heart rhythm. The number of clusters and dimensions was determined objectively, with results validated using a leave-one-trial-out approach. This study was prospectively registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00832442) and the PROSPERO database of systematic reviews (CRD42014010012). FINDINGS: 15 659 patients with heart failure and LVEF of less than 50% were included, with median age 65 years (IQR 56-72) and LVEF 27% (IQR 21-33). 3708 (24%) patients were women. In sinus rhythm (n=12 822), most clusters demonstrated a consistent overall mortality benefit from ß blockers, with odds ratios (ORs) ranging from 0·54 to 0·74. One cluster in sinus rhythm of older patients with less severe symptoms showed no significant efficacy (OR 0·86, 95% CI 0·67-1·10; p=0·22). In atrial fibrillation (n=2837), four of five clusters were consistent with the overall neutral effect of ß blockers versus placebo (OR 0·92, 0·77-1·10; p=0·37). One cluster of younger atrial fibrillation patients at lower mortality risk but similar LVEF to average had a statistically significant reduction in mortality with ß blockers (OR 0·57, 0·35-0·93; p=0·023). The robustness and consistency of clustering was confirmed for all models (p<0·0001 vs random), and cluster membership was externally validated across the nine independent trials. INTERPRETATION: An artificial intelligence-based clustering approach was able to distinguish prognostic response from ß blockers in patients with heart failure and reduced LVEF. This included patients in sinus rhythm with suboptimal efficacy, as well as a cluster of patients with atrial fibrillation where ß blockers did reduce mortality. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, UK, and EU/EFPIA Innovative Medicines Initiative BigData@Heart.

Early onset of immune-mediated diseases in minority ethnic groups in the UK.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of some immune-mediated diseases (IMDs) shows distinct differences between populations of different ethnicities. The aim of this study was to determine if the age at diagnosis of common IMDs also differed between different ethnic groups in the UK, suggestive of distinct influences of ethnicity on disease pathogenesis. METHODS: This was a population-based retrospective primary care study. Linear regression provided unadjusted and adjusted estimates of age at diagnosis for common IMDs within the following ethnic groups: White, South Asian, African-Caribbean and Mixed-race/Other. Potential disease risk confounders in the association between ethnicity and diagnosis age including sex, smoking, body mass index and social deprivation (Townsend quintiles) were adjusted for. The analysis was replicated using data from UK Biobank (UKB). RESULTS: After adjusting for risk confounders, we observed that individuals from South Asian, African-Caribbean and Mixed-race/Other ethnicities were diagnosed with IMDs at a significantly younger age than their White counterparts for almost all IMDs. The difference in the diagnosis age (ranging from 2 to 30 years earlier) varied for each disease and by ethnicity. For example, rheumatoid arthritis was diagnosed at age 49, 48 and 47 years in individuals of African-Caribbean, South Asian and Mixed-race/Other ethnicities respectively, compared to 56 years in White ethnicities. The earlier diagnosis of most IMDs observed was validated in UKB although with a smaller effect size. CONCLUSION: Individuals from non-White ethnic groups in the UK had an earlier age at diagnosis for several IMDs than White adults.

30-day morbidity and mortality of sleeve gastrectomy, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass and one anastomosis gastric bypass: a propensity score-matched analysis of the GENEVA data.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of data comparing 30-day morbidity and mortality of sleeve gastrectomy (SG), Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), and one anastomosis gastric bypass (OAGB). This study aimed to compare the 30-day safety of SG, RYGB, and OAGB in propensity score-matched cohorts. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This analysis utilised data collected from the GENEVA study which was a multicentre observational cohort study of bariatric and metabolic surgery (BMS) in 185 centres across 42 countries between 01/05/2022 and 31/10/2020 during the Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. 30-day complications were categorised according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. Patients receiving SG, RYGB, or OAGB were propensity-matched according to baseline characteristics and 30-day complications were compared between groups. RESULTS: In total, 6770 patients (SG 3983; OAGB 702; RYGB 2085) were included in this analysis. Prior to matching, RYGB was associated with highest 30-day complication rate (SG 5.8%; OAGB 7.5%; RYGB 8.0% (p = 0.006)). On multivariate regression modelling, Insulin-dependent type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypercholesterolaemia were associated with increased 30-day complications. Being a non-smoker was associated with reduced complication rates. When compared to SG as a reference category, RYGB, but not OAGB, was associated with an increased rate of 30-day complications. A total of 702 pairs of SG and OAGB were propensity score-matched. The complication rate in the SG group was 7.3% (n = 51) as compared to 7.5% (n = 53) in the OAGB group (p = 0.68). Similarly, 2085 pairs of SG and RYGB were propensity score-matched. The complication rate in the SG group was 6.1% (n = 127) as compared to 7.9% (n = 166) in the RYGB group (p = 0.09). And, 702 pairs of OAGB and RYGB were matched. The complication rate in both groups was the same at 7.5 % (n = 53; p = 0.07). CONCLUSIONS: This global study found no significant difference in the 30-day morbidity and mortality of SG, RYGB, and OAGB in propensity score-matched cohorts.

A Simple Optical Sensor Based on Multimodal Interference Superimposed on Additive Manufacturing for Diameter Measurement.

In many areas, the analysis of a cylindrical structure is necessary, and a form to analyze it is by evaluating the diameter changes. Some areas can be cited: pipelines for oil or gas distribution and radial growth of trees whose diameter changes are directly related to irrigation and the radial expansion since it depends on the water soil deficit. For some species, these radial variations can change in around 5 mm. This paper proposes and experimentally investigates a sensor based on a core diameter mismatch technique for diameter changes measurement. The sensor structure is a combination of a cylindrical piece developed using a 3D printer and a Mach-Zehnder interferometer. The pieces were developed to assist in monitoring the diameter variation. It is formed by splicing an uncoated short section of MMF (Multimode Fiber) between two standard SMFs (Singlemode Fibers) called SMF-MMF-SMF (SMS), where the MMF length is 15 mm. The work is divided into two main parts. Firstly, the sensor was fixed at two points on the first developed piece, and the diameter reduction caused dips or peaks shift of the transmittance spectrum due to curvature and strain influence. The fixation point (FP) distances used are: 5 mm, 10 mm, and 15 mm. Finally, the setup with the best sensitivity was chosen, from first results, to develop another test with an optimization. This optimization is performed in the printed piece where two supports are created so that only the strain influences the sensor. The results showed good sensitivity, reasonable dynamic range, and easy setup reproduction. Therefore, the sensor could be used for diameter variation measurement for proposed applications.

Optical Strain Gauge Prototype Based on a High Sensitivity Balloon-like Interferometer and Additive Manufacturing.

An optical strain gauge based on a balloon-like interferometer structure formed by a bent standard single-mode fiber combined with a 3D printer piece has been presented and demonstrated, which can be used to measure displacement. The interferometer has a simple and compact size, easy fabrication, low cost, and is repeatable. The sensor is based on the interference between the core and cladding modes. This is caused by the fiber's curvature because when light propagates through the curved balloon-shaped interferometer region, a portion of it will be released from the core limitation and coupled to the cladding. The balloon has an axial displacement as a result of how the artwork was constructed. The sensor head is sandwiched between two cantilevers such that when there is a displacement, the dimension associated with the micro bend is altered. The sensor response as a function of displacement can be determined using wavelength shift or intensity change interrogation techniques. Therefore, this optical strain gauge is a good option for applications where structure displacement needs to be examined. The sensor presents a sensitivity of 55.014 nm for displacement measurements ranging from 0 to 10 mm and a strain sensitivity of 500.13 pm/µÏµ.

Quantification of fibroblast growth factor 23 and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide to identify patients with atrial fibrillation using a high-throughput platform: A validation study.

BACKGROUND: Large-scale screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) requires reliable methods to identify at-risk populations. Using an experimental semi-quantitative biomarker assay, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) were recently identified as the most suitable biomarkers for detecting AF in combination with simple morphometric parameters (age, sex, and body mass index [BMI]). In this study, we validated the AF model using standardised, high-throughput, high-sensitivity biomarker assays. METHODS AND FINDINGS: For this study, 1,625 consecutive patients with either (1) diagnosed AF or (2) sinus rhythm with CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2 or more were recruited from a large teaching hospital in Birmingham, West Midlands, UK, between September 2014 and February 2018. Seven-day ambulatory ECG monitoring excluded silent AF. Patients with tachyarrhythmias apart from AF and incomplete cases were excluded. AF was diagnosed according to current clinical guidelines and confirmed by ECG. We developed a high-throughput, high-sensitivity assay for FGF23, quantified plasma N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and FGF23, and compared results to the previously used multibiomarker research assay. Data were fitted to the previously derived model, adjusting for differences in measurement platforms and known confounders (heart failure and chronic kidney disease). In 1,084 patients (46% with AF; median [Q1, Q3] age 70 [60, 78] years, median [Q1, Q3] BMI 28.8 [25.1, 32.8] kg/m2, 59% males), patients with AF had higher concentrations of NT-proBNP (median [Q1, Q3] per 100 pg/ml: with AF 12.00 [4.19, 30.15], without AF 4.25 [1.17, 15.70]; p < 0.001) and FGF23 (median [Q1, Q3] per 100 pg/ml: with AF 1.93 [1.30, 4.16], without AF 1.55 [1.04, 2.62]; p < 0.001). Univariate associations remained after adjusting for heart failure and estimated glomerular filtration rate, known confounders of NT-proBNP and FGF23. The fitted model yielded a C-statistic of 0.688 (95% CI 0.656, 0.719), almost identical to that of the derived model (C-statistic 0.691; 95% CI 0.638, 0.744). The key limitation is that this validation was performed in a cohort that is very similar demographically to the one used in model development, calling for further external validation. CONCLUSIONS: Age, sex, and BMI combined with elevated NT-proBNP and elevated FGF23, quantified on a high-throughput platform, reliably identify patients with AF. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registry IRAS ID 97753 Health Research Authority (HRA), United Kingdom.

Evaluation and improvement of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) for COVID-19: a multi-hospital study.

BACKGROUND: The National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) is currently recommended in the UK for the risk stratification of COVID-19 patients, but little is known about its ability to detect severe cases. We aimed to evaluate NEWS2 for the prediction of severe COVID-19 outcome and identify and validate a set of blood and physiological parameters routinely collected at hospital admission to improve upon the use of NEWS2 alone for medium-term risk stratification. METHODS: Training cohorts comprised 1276 patients admitted to King's College Hospital National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust with COVID-19 disease from 1 March to 30 April 2020. External validation cohorts included 6237 patients from five UK NHS Trusts (Guy's and St Thomas' Hospitals, University Hospitals Southampton, University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, University College London Hospitals, University Hospitals Birmingham), one hospital in Norway (Oslo University Hospital), and two hospitals in Wuhan, China (Wuhan Sixth Hospital and Taikang Tongji Hospital). The outcome was severe COVID-19 disease (transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) or death) at 14 days after hospital admission. Age, physiological measures, blood biomarkers, sex, ethnicity, and comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases) measured at hospital admission were considered in the models. RESULTS: A baseline model of 'NEWS2 + age' had poor-to-moderate discrimination for severe COVID-19 infection at 14 days (area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in training cohort = 0.700, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.680, 0.722; Brier score = 0.192, 95% CI 0.186, 0.197). A supplemented model adding eight routinely collected blood and physiological parameters (supplemental oxygen flow rate, urea, age, oxygen saturation, C-reactive protein, estimated glomerular filtration rate, neutrophil count, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio) improved discrimination (AUC = 0.735; 95% CI 0.715, 0.757), and these improvements were replicated across seven UK and non-UK sites. However, there was evidence of miscalibration with the model tending to underestimate risks in most sites. CONCLUSIONS: NEWS2 score had poor-to-moderate discrimination for medium-term COVID-19 outcome which raises questions about its use as a screening tool at hospital admission. Risk stratification was improved by including readily available blood and physiological parameters measured at hospital admission, but there was evidence of miscalibration in external sites. This highlights the need for a better understanding of the use of early warning scores for COVID.

Data-driven discovery and validation of circulating blood-based biomarkers associated with prevalent atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Undetected atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major health concern. Blood biomarkers associated with AF could simplify patient selection for screening and further inform ongoing research towards stratified prevention and treatment of AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Forty common cardiovascular biomarkers were quantified in 638 consecutive patients referred to hospital [mean ± standard deviation age 70 ± 12 years, 398 (62%) male, 294 (46%) with AF] with known AF or ≥2 CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors. Paroxysmal or silent AF was ruled out by 7-day ECG monitoring. Logistic regression with forward selection and machine learning algorithms were used to determine clinical risk factors, imaging parameters, and biomarkers associated with AF. Atrial fibrillation was significantly associated with age [bootstrapped odds ratio (OR) per year = 1.060, 95% confidence interval (1.04-1.10); P = 0.001], male sex [OR = 2.022 (1.28-3.56); P = 0.008], body mass index [BMI, OR per unit = 1.060 (1.02-1.12); P = 0.003], elevated brain natriuretic peptide [BNP, OR per fold change = 1.293 (1.11-1.63); P = 0.002], elevated fibroblast growth factor-23 [FGF-23, OR = 1.667 (1.36-2.34); P = 0.001], and reduced TNF-related apoptosis-induced ligand-receptor 2 [TRAIL-R2, OR = 0.242 (0.14-0.32); P = 0.001], but not other biomarkers. Biomarkers improved the prediction of AF compared with clinical risk factors alone (net reclassification improvement = 0.178; P < 0.001). Both logistic regression and machine learning predicted AF well during validation [area under the receiver-operator curve = 0.684 (0.62-0.75) and 0.697 (0.63-0.76), respectively]. CONCLUSION: Three simple clinical risk factors (age, sex, and BMI) and two biomarkers (elevated BNP and elevated FGF-23) identify patients with AF. Further research is warranted to elucidate FGF-23 dependent mechanisms of AF.

Seed germination of a South American forest tree described by linear thermal time models.

Thermal time models may describe and compare seed germination, providing information useful to explain species distribution. However, the capacity of such threshold models to describe germination of tropical native species has been less studied. We evaluated seed germination of a legume tree species (Peltophorum dubium), typical from South American seasonal forests, as described by two linear thermal time models: probit model and graphic model. Seeds were provided from four different provenances in a latitudinal gradient in Brazil, and their physical dormancy mechanically released before the trials. Graphic model and probit regression were used to determine thermal parameters (cardinal temperatures and thermal time requirement) on sub- and supra-optimal ranges for the different seed provenances. Germination rate mainly followed linear relationship with temperature, and regression lines of different germination fractions converged base temperature in the x-axis. Therefore, probit model assumed a single-value of base temperature in the sub-optimal range and a normal distribution of thermal time. Base temperature tended to be higher in the Northern provenance, Porto Velho, showing slower germination under cooler temperatures. Supra-optimal temperatures have shown similar thermal time requirements and different values for ceiling temperature, according to model predictions. No clear patterns have been found between seed provenances and thermal time requirement. Both probit and graphic models have provided reasonable predictions of germination times (t10 and t50), except under the coolest temperatures. Probit regression always described at least 70% of seed germination. Thermal time assumptions, linear models applicability and their limitations are discussed.

Safety outcomes of bariatric surgery in patients with advanced organ disease: the ONWARD study: a prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Increasing numbers of patients with advanced organ disease are being considered for bariatric and metabolic surgery (BMS). There is no prospective study on the safety of BMS in these patients. This study aimed to capture outcomes for patients with advanced cardiac, renal, or liver disease undergoing BMS. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a multinational, prospective cohort study on the safety of elective BMS in adults (≥18 years) with advanced disease of the heart, liver, or kidney. RESULTS: Data on 177 patients with advanced diseases of heart, liver, or kidney were submitted by 75 centres in 33 countries. Mean age and BMI was 48.56±11.23 years and 45.55±7.35 kg/m 2 , respectively. Laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy was performed in 124 patients (70%). The 30-day morbidity and mortality were 15.9% ( n =28) and 1.1% ( n =2), respectively. Thirty-day morbidity was 16.4%, 11.7%, 20.5%, and 50.0% in patients with advanced heart ( n =11/61), liver ( n =8/68), kidney ( n =9/44), and multi-organ disease ( n =2/4), respectively. Cardiac patients with left ventricular ejection fraction less than or equal to 35% and New York Heart Association classification 3 or 4, liver patients with model for end-stage liver disease score greater than or equal to 12, and patients with advanced renal disease not on dialysis were at increased risk of complications. Comparison with a propensity score-matched cohort found advanced disease of the heart, liver, or kidney to be significantly associated with higher 30-day morbidity. CONCLUSION: Patients with advanced organ disease are at increased risk of 30-day morbidity following BMS. This prospective study quantifies that risk and identifies patients at the highest risk.

Blood-based cardiometabolic phenotypes in atrial fibrillation and their associated risk: EAST-AFNET 4 biomolecule study.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and concomitant cardiometabolic disease processes interact and combine to lead to adverse events, such as stroke, heart failure, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death. Circulating biomolecules provide quantifiable proxies for cardiometabolic disease processes. The aim of this study was to test whether biomolecule combinations can define phenotypes in patients with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: This pre-specified analysis of the EAST-AFNET 4 biomolecule study assigned patients to clusters using polytomous variable latent-class analysis based on baseline concentrations of 13 precisely quantified biomolecules potentially reflecting ageing, cardiac fibrosis, metabolic dysfunction, oxidative stress, cardiac load, endothelial dysfunction, and inflammation. In each cluster, rates of cardiovascular death, stroke, or hospitalization for heart failure or acute coronary syndrome, the primary outcome of EAST-AFNET 4, were calculated and compared between clusters over median 5.1 years follow-up. Findings were independently validated in a prospective cohort of 748 patients with AF (BBC-AF; median follow-up 2.9 years).Unsupervised biomolecule analysis assigned 1586 patients (71 years old, 46% women) into four clusters. The highest risk cluster was dominated by elevated bone morphogenetic protein 10, insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 7, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, angiopoietin 2, and growth differentiation factor 15. Patients in the lowest risk cluster showed low concentrations of these biomolecules. Two intermediate-risk clusters differed by high or low concentrations of C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and D-dimer. Patients in the highest risk cluster had a five-fold higher cardiovascular event rate than patients in the low-risk cluster. Early rhythm control was effective across clusters (Pinteraction = 0.63). Sensitivity analyses and external validation in BBC-AF replicated clusters and risk gradients. CONCLUSION: Biomolecule concentrations identify cardiometabolic subphenotypes in patients with AF at high and low cardiovascular risk.

Correction: Evaluating the detection ability of a range of epistasis detection methods on simulated data for pure and impure epistatic models.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0263390.].

Outcomes of Early Rhythm Control Therapy in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and a High Comorbidity Burden in Large Real-World Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: A recent subanalysis of the EAST-AFNET 4 (Early Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation for Stroke Prevention Trial) suggests a stronger benefit of early rhythm control (ERC) in patients with atrial fibrillation and a high comorbidity burden when compared to patients with a lower comorbidity burden. METHODS: We identified 109 739 patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in a large United States deidentified administrative claims database (OptumLabs) and 11 625 patients in the population-based UKB (UK Biobank). ERC was defined as atrial fibrillation ablation or antiarrhythmic drug therapy within the first year after atrial fibrillation diagnosis. Patients were classified as (1) ERC and high comorbidity burden (CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥4); (2) ERC and lower comorbidity burden (CHA2DS2-VASc score 2-3); (3) no ERC and high comorbidity burden; and (4) no ERC and lower comorbidity burden. Patients without an elevated comorbidity burden (CHA2DS2-VASc score 0-1) were excluded. Propensity score overlap weighting and cox proportional hazards regression were used to balance patients and compare groups for the primary composite outcome of all-cause mortality, stroke, or hospitalization with the diagnoses heart failure or myocardial infarction as well as for a primary composite safety outcome of death, stroke, and serious adverse events related to ERC. RESULTS: In both cohorts, ERC was associated with a reduced risk for the primary composite outcome in patients with a high comorbidity burden (OptumLabs: hazard ratio, 0.83 [95% CI 0.72-0.95]; P=0.006; UKB: hazard ratio, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.63-0.94]; P=0.009). In patients with a lower comorbidity burden, the difference in outcomes was not significant (OptumLabs: hazard ratio, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.54-1.57]; P=0.767; UKB: hazard ratio, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.83-1.06]; P=0.310). The comorbidity burden interacted with ERC in the UKB (interaction- P=0.027) but not in OptumLabs (interaction-P=0.720). ERC was not associated with an increased risk for the primary safety outcome. CONCLUSIONS: ERC is safe and may be more favorable in a population-based sample of patients with high a comorbidity burden (CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥4).