Validation of the World Health Organization/ International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) cardiovascular risk predictions in Sri Lankans based on findings from a prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: There are no cardiovascular (CV) risk prediction models for Sri Lankans. Different risk prediction models not validated for Sri Lankans are being used to predict CV risk of Sri Lankans. We validated the WHO/ISH (SEAR-B) risk prediction charts prospectively in a population-based cohort of Sri Lankans. METHOD: We selected 40-64 year-old participants from the Ragama Medical Officer of Health (MOH) area in 2007 by stratified random sampling and followed them up for 10 years. Ten-year risk predictions of a fatal/non-fatal cardiovascular event (CVE) in 2007 were calculated using WHO/ISH (SEAR-B) charts with and without cholesterol. The CVEs that occurred from 2007-2017 were ascertained. Risk predictions in 2007 were validated against observed CVEs in 2017. RESULTS: Of 2517 participants, the mean age was 53.7 year (SD: 6.7) and 1132 (45%) were males. Using WHO/ISH chart with cholesterol, the percentages of subjects with a 10-year CV risk <10%, 10-19%, 20%-29%, 30-39%, ≥40% were 80.7%, 9.9%, 3.8%, 2.5% and 3.1%, respectively. 142 non-fatal and 73 fatal CVEs were observed during follow-up. Among the cohort, 9.4% were predicted of having a CV risk ≥20% and 8.6% CVEs were observed in the risk category. CVEs were within the predictions of WHO/ISH charts with and without cholesterol in both high (≥20%) and low(<20%) risk males, but only in low(<20%) risk females. The predictions of WHO/ISH charts, with-and without-cholesterol were in agreement in 81% of subjects (ĸ = 0.429; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: WHO/ISH (SEAR B) risk prediction charts with-and without-cholesterol may be used in Sri Lanka. Risk charts are more predictive in males than in females and for lower-risk categories. The predictions when stratifying into 2 categories, low risk (<20%) and high risk (≥20%), are more appropriate in clinical practice.

Common variants at the GCK, GCKR, G6PC2-ABCB11 and MTNR1B loci are associated with fasting glucose in two Asian populations.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To test fasting glucose association at four loci recently identified or verified by genome-wide association (GWA) studies of European populations, we performed a replication study in two Asian populations. METHODS: We genotyped five common variants previously reported in Europeans: rs1799884 (GCK), rs780094 (GCKR), rs560887 (G6PC2-ABCB11) and both rs1387153 and rs10830963 (MTNR1B) in the general Japanese (n = 4,813) and Sri Lankan (n = 2,319) populations. To identify novel variants, we further examined genetic associations near each locus by using GWA scan data on 776 non-diabetic Japanese samples. RESULTS: Fasting glucose association was replicated for the five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at p < 0.05 (one-tailed test) in South Asians (Sri Lankan) as well as in East Asians (Japanese). In fine-mapping by GWA scan data, we identified in the G6PC2-ABCB11 region a novel SNP, rs3755157, with significant association in Japanese (p = 2.6 x 10(-8)) and Sri Lankan (p = 0.001) populations. The strength of association was more prominent at rs3755157 than that of the original SNP rs560887, with allelic heterogeneity detected between the SNPs. On analysing the cumulative effect of associated SNPs, we found the per-allele gradients (beta = 0.055 and 0.069 mmol/l in Japanese and Sri Lankans, respectively) to be almost equivalent to those reported in Europeans. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Fasting glucose association at four tested loci was proven to be replicable across ethnic groups. Despite this overall consistency, ethnic diversity in the pattern and strength of linkage disequilibrium certainly exists and can help to appreciably reduce potential causal variants after GWA studies.