Prognostic accuracy of emergency department triage tools for adults with suspected COVID-19: the PRIEST observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The WHO and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommend various triage tools to assist decision-making for patients with suspected COVID-19. We aimed to compare the accuracy of triage tools for predicting severe illness in adults presenting to the ED with suspected COVID-19. METHODS: We undertook a mixed prospective and retrospective observational cohort study in 70 EDs across the UK. We collected data from people attending with suspected COVID-19 and used presenting data to determine the results of assessment with the WHO algorithm, National Early Warning Score version 2 (NEWS2), CURB-65, CRB-65, Pandemic Modified Early Warning Score (PMEWS) and the swine flu adult hospital pathway (SFAHP). We used 30-day outcome data (death or receipt of respiratory, cardiovascular or renal support) to determine prognostic accuracy for adverse outcome. RESULTS: We analysed data from 20 891 adults, of whom 4611 (22.1%) died or received organ support (primary outcome), with 2058 (9.9%) receiving organ support and 2553 (12.2%) dying without organ support (secondary outcomes). C-statistics for the primary outcome were: CURB-65 0.75; CRB-65 0.70; PMEWS 0.77; NEWS2 (score) 0.77; NEWS2 (rule) 0.69; SFAHP (6-point rule) 0.70; SFAHP (7-point rule) 0.68; WHO algorithm 0.61. All triage tools showed worse prediction for receipt of organ support and better prediction for death without organ support. At the recommended threshold, PMEWS and the WHO criteria showed good sensitivity (0.97 and 0.95, respectively) at the expense of specificity (0.30 and 0.27, respectively). The NEWS2 score showed similar sensitivity (0.96) and specificity (0.28) when a lower threshold than recommended was used. CONCLUSION: CURB-65, PMEWS and the NEWS2 score provide good but not excellent prediction for adverse outcome in suspected COVID-19, and predicted death without organ support better than receipt of organ support. PMEWS, the WHO criteria and NEWS2 (using a lower threshold than usually recommended) provide good sensitivity at the expense of specificity. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN56149622.

Post-exertion oxygen saturation as a prognostic factor for adverse outcome in patients attending the emergency department with suspected COVID-19: a substudy of the PRIEST observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of post-exertion oxygen saturation has been proposed to assess illness severity in suspected COVID-19 infection. We aimed to determine the accuracy of post-exertional oxygen saturation for predicting adverse outcome in suspected COVID-19. METHODS: We undertook a substudy of an observational cohort study across 70 emergency departments during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. We collected data prospectively, using a standardised assessment form, and retrospectively, using hospital records, from patients with suspected COVID-19, and reviewed hospital records at 30 days for adverse outcome (death or receiving organ support). Patients with post-exertion oxygen saturation recorded were selected for this analysis. We constructed receiver-operating characteristic curves, calculated diagnostic parameters, and developed a multivariable model for predicting adverse outcome. RESULTS: We analysed data from 817 patients with post-exertion oxygen saturation recorded after excluding 54 in whom measurement appeared unfeasible. The c-statistic for post-exertion change in oxygen saturation was 0.589 (95% CI 0.465 to 0.713), and the positive and negative likelihood ratios of a 3% or more desaturation were, respectively, 1.78 (1.25 to 2.53) and 0.67 (0.46 to 0.98). Multivariable analysis showed that post-exertion oxygen saturation was not a significant predictor of adverse outcome when baseline clinical assessment was taken into account (p=0.368). Secondary analysis excluding patients in whom post-exertion measurement appeared inappropriate resulted in a c-statistic of 0.699 (0.581 to 0.817), likelihood ratios of 1.98 (1.26 to 3.10) and 0.61 (0.35 to 1.07), and some evidence of additional prognostic value on multivariable analysis (p=0.019). CONCLUSIONS: Post-exertion oxygen saturation provides modest prognostic information in the assessment of selected patients attending the emergency department with suspected COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN56149622) http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN28342533.

Emergency department use during COVID-19 as described by syndromic surveillance.

On 12 March 2020 the UK entered the 'delay phase' of the COVID-19 pandemic response. The Public Health England Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance System (EDSSS) carries out daily (near real-time) public health surveillance of emergency department (ED) attendances across England. This retrospective observational analysis of EDSSS data aimed to describe changes in ED attendances during March-April 2020, and identify the attendance types with the largest impact. Type 1 ED attendances were selected from 109 EDs that reported data to EDSSS for the period 1 January 2019 to 26 April 2020. The daily numbers of attendances were plotted by age group and acuity of presentation. The 2020 'COVID-19' period (12 March 2020 to 26 April 2020) attendances were compared with the equivalent 2019 'pre-COVID-19' period (14 March 2019 to 28 April 2019): in total; by hour and day of the week; age group(<1, 1-4, 15-14, 15-44, 45-64 and 65+ years); gender; acuity; and for selected syndromic indicators(acute respiratory infection, gastroenteritis, myocardial ischaemia). Daily ED attendances up to 11 March 2020 showed regular trends, highest on a Monday and reduced in children during school holidays. From 12 March 2020 ED attendances decreased across all age groups, all acuity levels, on all days and times. Across age groups the greatest percentage reductions were seen in school age children (5-14 years). By acuity, the greatest reduction occurred in the less severe presentations. Syndromic indicators showed that the greatest reductions were in non-respiratory indicators, which fell by 44-67% during 2020 COVID-19, while acute respiratory infection was reduced by -4.4% (95% CI -9.5% to 0.6%). ED attendances in England have been particularly affected during the COVID-19 pandemic due to changes in healthcare seeking behaviour. EDSSS has enabled real-time daily monitoring of these changes, which are made publicly available to facilitate action. The EDSSS provides valuable surveillance of ED attendances in England. The flexibility of EDSSS allowed rapid development of new indicators (including COVID-19-like) and reporting methods.

Potential added value of the new emergency care dataset to ED-based public health surveillance in England: an initial concept analysis.

INTRODUCTION: For the London Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2012, a sentinel ED syndromic surveillance system was established to enhance public health surveillance by obtaining data from a selected network of EDs, focusing on London. In 2017, a new national standard Emergency Care Dataset was introduced, which enabled Public Health England (PHE) to initiate the expansion of their sentinel system to national coverage. Prior to this initiative, we estimated the added value, and potential additional resource use, of an expansion of the sentinel surveillance system. METHODS: The detection capabilities of the sentinel and national systems were compared using the aberration detection methods currently used by PHE. Different scenarios were used to measure the impact on health at a local, subnational and national level, including improvements to sensitivity and timeliness, along with changes in specificity. RESULTS: The biggest added value was found to be for detecting local impacts, with an increase in sensitivity of over 80%. There were also improvements found at a national level with outbreaks being detected earlier and smaller impacts being detectable. However, the increased number of local sites will also increase the number of false alarms likely to be generated. CONCLUSION: We have quantified the added value of national ED syndromic surveillance systems, showing how they will enable detection of more localised events. Furthermore, national systems add value in enabling timelier public health interventions. Finally, we have highlighted areas where extra resource may be required to manage improvements in detection coverage.

Early warning scores: a health warning.

Early warning scores are frequently used in UK adult emergency departments (EDs) and are gaining traction in paediatric emergency care. Like many innovations with inherent face validity, they have great appeal to clinicians, managers and commissioners. However, it is important to ensure unintended consequences and balancing measures are mitigated. We review the background to their development and introduction in the ED, the evidence for their usefulness, their limitations in our field and areas for further research.

Disaster management in low- and middle-income countries: scoping review of the evidence base.

INTRODUCTION: Globally, there has been an increase in the prevalence and scale of disasters with low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) tending to be more affected. Consequently, disaster risk reduction has been advocated as a global priority. However, the evidence base for disaster management in these settings is unclear. METHODS: This study is a scoping review of the evidence base for disaster management in LMIC. Potentially relevant articles between 1990 and 2011 were searched for, assessed for relevance and subsequently categorised using a thematic coding framework based on the US Integrated Emergency Management System model. RESULTS: Out of 1545 articles identified, only 178 were from LMIC settings. Most were of less robust design such as event reports and commentaries, and 66% pertained to natural disasters. There was a paucity of articles on disaster mitigation or recovery, and more were written on disaster response and preparedness issues. DISCUSSION: Considerably more articles were published from high-income country settings that may reflect a publication bias. Current grey literature on disaster management tends not to be peer reviewed, is not well organised and not easy to access. The paucity of peer-reviewed publications compromises evidence review initiatives that seek to provide an evidence-base for disaster management in LMIC. As such, there is an urgent need for greater research and publication of findings on disaster management issues from these settings.

Hot off the press: SGEM#383: Tommy can you hear me-Deaf and hard-of-hearing patients in the ED.

Patients who are deaf and hard of hearing may have difficulty accessing healthcare resources when compared with non-deaf or hard of hearing patients. Little research has been performed investigating in what ways these difficulties manifest. This article summarizes the podcast and blog discussing the manuscript by James et al. in which deaf and hard of hearing patients are compared to non-deaf and hard of hearing patients when it comes to acuity, length of stay, and emergency department revisits. Social media commentary is included.

Emergency management in health: key issues and challenges in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Emergency planning in the UK has grown considerably in recent years, galvanised by the threat of terrorism. However, deficiencies in NHS emergency planning were identified and the evidence-base that underpins it is questionable. Inconsistencies in terminologies and concepts also exist. Different models of emergency management exist internationally but the optimal system is unknown. This study examines the evidence-base and evidence requirements for emergency planning in the UK health context. METHODS: The study involved semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders and opinion leaders. Purposive sampling was used to obtain a breadth of views from various agencies involved in emergency planning and response. Interviews were then analysed using a grounded approach using standard framework analysis techniques. RESULTS: We conducted 17 key informant interviews. Interviewees identified greater gaps in operational than technical aspects of emergency planning. Social and behavioural knowledge gaps were highlighted with regards to how individuals and organisations deal with risk and behave in emergencies. Evidence-based approaches to public engagement and for developing community resilience to disasters are lacking. Other gaps included how knowledge was developed and used. Conflicting views with regards to the optimal configuration and operation of the emergency management system were voiced. CONCLUSIONS: Four thematic categories for future research emerged:(i) Knowledge-base for emergency management: Further exploration is needed of how knowledge is acquired, valued, disseminated, adopted and retained.(ii) Social and behavioural issues: Greater understanding of how individuals approach risk and behave in emergencies is required.(iii) Organisational issues in emergencies: Several conflicting organisational issues were identified; value of planning versus plans, flexible versus standardized procedures, top-down versus bottom-up engagement, generic versus specific planning, and reactive versus proactive approaches to emergencies.(iv) Emergency management system: More study is required of system-wide issues relating to system configuration and operation, public engagement, and how emergency planning is assessed.

Where is the evidence for emergency planning: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Recent terrorist attacks and natural disasters have led to an increased awareness of the importance of emergency planning. However, the extent to which emergency planners can access or use evidence remains unclear. The aim of this study was to identify, analyse and assess the location, source and quality of emergency planning publications in the academic and UK grey literature. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review, using as data sources for academic literature Embase, Medline, Medline in Process, Psychinfo, Biosis, Science Citation Index, Cinahl, Cochrane library and Clinicaltrials.gov. For grey literature identification we used databases at the Health Protection Agency, NHS Evidence, British Association of Immediate Care Schemes, Emergency Planning College and the Health and Safety Executive, and the websites of UK Department of Health Emergency Planning Division and UK Resilience.Aggregative synthesis was used to analyse papers and documents against a framework based on a modified FEMA Emergency Planning cycle. RESULTS: Of 2736 titles identified from the academic literature, 1603 were relevant. 45% were from North America, 27% were commentaries or editorials and 22% were event reports.Of 192 documents from the grey literature, 97 were relevant. 76% of these were event reports.The majority of documents addressed emergency planning and response. Very few documents related to hazard analysis, mitigation or capability assessment. CONCLUSIONS: Although a large body of literature exists, its validity and generalisability is unclear There is little evidence that this potential evidence base has been exploited through synthesis to inform policy and practice. The type and structure of evidence that would be of most value of emergency planners and policymakers has yet to be identified.

Evaluation of triage methods used to select patients with suspected pandemic influenza for hospital admission.

OBJECTIVES: Prepandemic projections anticipated huge excess attendances and mortality in an influenza pandemic. A number of tools had been suggested for triaging patients with influenza for inpatient and critical care admission, but none had been validated in these patients. The authors aimed to evaluate three potential triage tools--CURB-65, PMEWS and the Department of Health community assessment tool (CAT)--in patients in the first waves of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. SETTING: Prospective cohort study in three urban emergency departments (one adult, one paediatric, one mixed) in two cities. PARTICIPANTS: All patients presenting to the three emergency departments fulfilling the national definition of suspected pandemic influenza. OUTCOME MEASURES: 30-day follow-up identified patients who had died or had required advanced respiratory, cardiovascular or renal support. RESULTS: The pandemic was much less severe than expected. A total of 481 patients (347 children) were recruited, of which only five adults fulfilled the outcome criteria for severe illness. The c-statistics for CURB-65, PMEWS and CAT in adults in terms of discriminating between those admitted and discharged were 0.65 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.76), 0.76 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.86) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.72), respectively. In detecting adverse outcome, sensitivities were 20% (95% CI 4% to 62%), 80% (95% CI 38% to 96%) and 60% (95% CI 23% to 88%), and specificities were 94% (95% CI 88% to 97%), 40% (95% CI 32% to 49%) and 81% (95% CI 73% to 87%) for CURB-65, PMEWS and CAT, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Although limited by a paucity of cases, this research shows that current triage methods for suspected pandemic influenza did not reliably discriminate between patients with good and poor outcomes.

Hot off the press: SGEM#343: Weight bias in medicine.

Various forms of bias exist in medicine, including race, gender, age, socioeconomic status, and weight bias. Weight bias has not received as much attention in the literature as other forms of bias. More often when discussing weight bias, the discussion is with regard to physician to patient bias, or patient to physician. In this article, we summarize the study performed by McLean et al. as well as the podcast and discussion, and social media commentary, in which the investigators evaluate the presence of physician to physician weight bias.

Use of a modified Delphi process to develop research priorities in major trauma.

PURPOSE: The burden of major trauma within the UK is ever increasing. There is a need to establish research priorities within the field. Delphi methodology can be used to develop consensus opinion amongst a group of stakeholders. This can be used to prioritise clinically relevant, patient-centred research questions to guide future funding allocations. The aim of our study was to identify key future research priorities pertaining to the management of major trauma in the UK. METHODS: A three-phased modified Delphi process was undertaken. Phase 1 involved the submission of research questions by members of the trauma community using an online survey (Phase 1). Phases 2 and 3 involved two consecutive rounds of prioritisation after questions were subdivided into 6 subcategories: Brain Injury, Rehabilitation, Trauma in Older People, Pre-hospital, Interventional, and Miscellaneous (Phases 2 and 3). Cut-off points were agreed by consensus amongst the steering subcommittees. This established a final prioritised list of research questions. RESULTS: In phase 1, 201 questions were submitted by 65 stakeholders. After analysis and with consensus achieved, 186 questions were taken forward for prioritisation in phase 2 with 114 included in phase 3. 56 prioritised major trauma research questions across the 6 categories were identified with a clear focus on long-term patient outcomes. Research priorities across the patient pathway from roadside to rehabilitation were deemed of importance. CONCLUSIONS: Consensus within the major trauma community has identified 56 key research questions across 6 categories. Dissemination of these questions to funding bodies to allow for the development of high-quality research is now required. There is a clear indication for targeted multi-centre multi-disciplinary research in major trauma.

Predictive scoring in non-trauma emergency patients: a scoping review.

This study is an inclusive scoping review of the literature relating to outcome prediction in adult non-trauma emergency patients, in order to identify the number and range of risk scores developed for acutely ill adults and to identify the outcomes these scores predict. The data source used was Medline 1950-2009. To be eligible for inclusion, papers had to detail an assessment tool, wholly or predominantly clinical, applied at the point of patient presentation to unscheduled healthcare services with outcome measures up to 30 days after presentation. Papers detailing trauma, paediatrics, purely obstetric or psychiatric presentations, tools wholly applied in a critical care setting, tools requiring an algorithm not freely available, biomarkers or tests not routinely available in an Emergency Department (ED) setting were excluded. 192 papers were reviewed. Within 17 broad disease categories, 80 inclusion criteria were used, 119 tools were assessed (25 of which were non-disease specific), and 51 outcome measures were used (30 of which were disease-specific). The areas under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUROCs) varied from 0.44 to 0.984. The multiplicity of tools available presents a challenge in itself to the acute clinician. Many tools require a specific diagnosis, which is not immediately available, and the authors advocate ED development of tools for case-mix adjustment and clinical risk stratification.

Electrical Stimulation to Enhance Wound Healing.

Electrical stimulation (ES) can serve as a therapeutic modality accelerating the healing of wounds, particularly chronic wounds which have impaired healing due to complications from underlying pathology. This review explores how ES affects the cellular mechanisms of wound healing, and its effectiveness in treating acute and chronic wounds. Literature searches with no publication date restrictions were conducted using the Cochrane Library, Medline, Web of Science, Google Scholar and PubMed databases, and 30 full-text articles met the inclusion criteria. In vitro and in vivo experiments investigating the effect of ES on the general mechanisms of healing demonstrated increased epithelialization, fibroblast migration, and vascularity around wounds. Six in vitro studies demonstrated bactericidal effects upon exposure to alternating and pulsed current. Twelve randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigated the effect of pulsed current on chronic wound healing. All reviewed RCTs demonstrated a larger reduction in wound size and increased healing rate when compared to control groups. In conclusion, ES therapy can contribute to improved chronic wound healing and potentially reduce the financial burden associated with wound management. However, the variations in the wound characteristics, patient demographics, and ES parameters used across studies present opportunities for systematic RCT studies in the future.

Prognostic performance of clinical assessment tools following hip fracture in patients with chronic kidney disease.

PURPOSE: People living with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at a higher risk of hip fracture with an associated increased mortality risk compared to individuals without CKD. Our study aimed to evaluate the clinical assessment tools that best predict mortality risk following hip fracture for patients with CKD. METHODS: Patients with CKD G3b-5D admitted to Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, U.K. between June 2013 and Dec 2019 were included. The association between CKD and post-fracture mortality risk was evaluated. All patients were assessed using tools that evaluated frailty status, co-morbidity, pre-operative risk, functional status and cardiopulmonary fitness. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed to determine the prognostic accuracy of the assessment tools for 30 day and 1 year mortality following hip fracture in patients with CKD. RESULTS: 397 patients fulfilled inclusion criteria with a mean age of 83.5 ± 9.2 years. Older age, female sex, intracapsular fracture and more severe CKD, co-morbidity and frailty status were all associated with an increased mortality risk. Patients with dialysis-dependent CKD and severe/very severe frailty had a hazard ratio for mortality of 2.55 (95% Cl 2.11-2.98) and 3.11 (95% Cl 2.47-3.93), respectively. The Clinical Frailty Scale demonstrated the best prognostic accuracy for both 30 day [Area Under the Curve (AUC) 0.91, 95% Cl 0.84-0.97] and 1 year mortality (AUC 0.93, 95% Cl 0.87-1.00). CONCLUSION: Patients with advanced CKD and severe frailty have a high mortality risk following hip fracture. The Clinical Frailty Scale is an excellent prognostic tool for mortality in this setting and could be easily incorporated into routine clinical practice.

Derivation and validation of a clinical severity score for acutely ill adults with suspected COVID-19: The PRIEST observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to derive and validate a triage tool, based on clinical assessment alone, for predicting adverse outcome in acutely ill adults with suspected COVID-19 infection. METHODS: We undertook a mixed prospective and retrospective observational cohort study in 70 emergency departments across the United Kingdom (UK). We collected presenting data from 22445 people attending with suspected COVID-19 between 26 March 2020 and 28 May 2020. The primary outcome was death or organ support (respiratory, cardiovascular, or renal) by record review at 30 days. We split the cohort into derivation and validation sets, developed a clinical score based on the coefficients from multivariable analysis using the derivation set, and the estimated discriminant performance using the validation set. RESULTS: We analysed 11773 derivation and 9118 validation cases. Multivariable analysis identified that age, sex, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, oxygen saturation/inspired oxygen ratio, performance status, consciousness, history of renal impairment, and respiratory distress were retained in analyses restricted to the ten or fewer predictors. We used findings from multivariable analysis and clinical judgement to develop a score based on the NEWS2 score, age, sex, and performance status. This had a c-statistic of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.79-0.81) in the validation cohort and predicted adverse outcome with sensitivity 0.98 (0.97-0.98) and specificity 0.34 (0.34-0.35) for scores above four points. CONCLUSION: A clinical score based on NEWS2, age, sex, and performance status predicts adverse outcome with good discrimination in adults with suspected COVID-19 and can be used to support decision-making in emergency care. REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN28342533, http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN28342533.

The revised Approved Instructional Resources score: An improved quality evaluation tool for online educational resources.

BACKGROUND: Free Open-Access Medical education (FOAM) use among residents continues to rise. However, it often lacks quality assurance processes and residents receive little guidance on quality assessment. The Academic Life in Emergency Medicine Approved Instructional Resources tool (AAT) was created for FOAM appraisal by and for expert educators and has demonstrated validity in this context. It has yet to be evaluated in other populations. OBJECTIVES: We assessed the AAT's usability in a diverse population of practicing emergency medicine (EM) physicians, residents, and medical students; solicited feedback; and developed a revised tool. METHODS: As part of the Medical Education Translational Resources: Impact and Quality (METRIQ) study, we recruited medical students, EM residents, and EM attendings to evaluate five FOAM posts with the AAT and provide quantitative and qualitative feedback via an online survey. Two independent analysts performed a qualitative thematic analysis with discrepancies resolved through discussion and negotiated consensus. This analysis informed development of an initial revised AAT, which was then further refined after pilot testing among the author group. The final tool was reassessed for reliability. RESULTS: Of 330 recruited international participants, 309 completed all ratings. The Best Evidence in Emergency Medicine (BEEM) score was the component most frequently reported as difficult to use. Several themes emerged from the qualitative analysis: for ease of use-understandable, logically structured, concise, and aligned with educational value. Limitations include deviation from questionnaire best practices, validity concerns, and challenges assessing evidence-based medicine. Themes supporting its use include evaluative utility and usability. The author group pilot tested the initial revised AAT, revealing a total score average measure intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of moderate reliability (ICC = 0.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0 to 0.962). The final AAT's average measure ICC was 0.88 (95% CI = 0.77 to 0.95). CONCLUSIONS: We developed the final revised AAT from usability feedback. The new score has significantly increased usability, but will need to be reassessed for reliability in a broad population.

What happens at triage: a naturalistic observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To observe activity and delays at triage in an Emergency Department (ED) using the Manchester Triage System. METHOD: Single-centre naturalistic observational design. RESULTS: 13% patients had observations recorded at triage. 13% of triage interactions were interrupted for an unrelated issue. The mean time to triage was 2.43 min, 0.95 min for patients arriving by ambulance. CONCLUSION: Triage times and experience might be improved by reducing external interruptions to the triage process.