Worldwide Fracture Prediction.

The substantial increase in the burden of non-communicable diseases in general and osteoporosis in particular, necessitates the establishment of efficient and targeted diagnosis and treatment strategies. This chapter reviews and compares different tools for osteoporosis screening and diagnosis; it also provides an overview of different treatment guidelines adopted by countries worldwide. While access to dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry to measure bone mineral density (BMD) is limited in most areas in the world, the introduction of risk calculators that combine risk factors, with or without BMD, have resulted in a paradigm shift in osteoporosis screening and management. To-date, forty eight risk assessment tools that allow risk stratification of patients are available, however only few are externally validated and tested in a population-based setting. These include Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool; Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument; Simple Calculated Osteoporosis Risk Estimation; Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada calculator; Fracture Risk Assessment Calculator (FRAX); Garvan; and QFracture. These tools vary in the number of risk factors incorporated. We present a detailed analysis of the development, characteristics, validation, performance, advantages and limitations of these tools. The World Health Organization proposes a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry-BMD T-score ≤ -2.5 as an operational diagnostic threshold for osteoporosis, and many countries have also adopted this cut-off as an intervention threshold in their treatment guidelines. With the introduction of the new fracture assessment calculators, many countries chose to include fracture risk as one of the major criteria to initiate osteoporosis treatment. Of the 52 national guidelines identified in 36 countries, 30 included FRAX derived risk in their intervention threshold and 22 were non-FRAX based.  No universal tool or guideline approach will address the needs of all countries worldwide.  Osteoporosis screening and management guidelines are best tailored according to the needs and resources of individual counties. While few countries have succeeded in generating valuable epidemiological data on osteoporotic fractures, to validate their risk calculators and base their guidelines, many have yet to find the resources to assess variations and secular trends in fractures, the performance of various calculators, and ultimately adopt the most convenient care pathway algorithms.

Achieving sustainable, environmentally viable, solarized vaccine cold chain system and vaccination program-an effort to move towards clean and green energy-driven primary healthcare in Lebanon.

Introduction: Lebanon faces severe economic and energy crises, impacting its healthcare system, particularly vaccine storage. Traditional gas or kerosene-powered refrigerators often fail to maintain necessary temperatures for vaccine efficacy. This study explores transitioning to solar direct-drive (SDD) refrigerators to ensure reliable vaccine storage. Methods: A multi-phase methodology was employed, beginning with an inventory assessment of existing cold chain equipment. The implementation involved stepwise replacement of identified refrigerators across health facilities, including Primary Health Care Centers (PHCCs) and dispensaries. Feasibility, cost-effectiveness, and environmental impact were evaluated. Results: Findings indicate that solarization significantly reduces vaccine wastage, ensures stable temperatures, and cuts operational costs by decreasing dependence on non-renewable energy sources. Over 1,000 SDD units were installed across more than 800 health facilities. Additionally, PHCC solarization improved vaccine preservation and enhanced the resilience of health services overall. Discussion: The solarization initiative demonstrates the critical role of renewable energy in strengthening healthcare infrastructure, especially in crisis-hit regions. Solar-powered systems provide a reliable and sustainable solution for vaccine storage, reduce carbon footprints, and build public trust in the immunization system. Challenges included geographical and structural limitations, which were addressed through comprehensive planning and collaboration with local stakeholders. Solarization of Lebanon's vaccine cold chain and PHCCs marks a significant step towards sustainable and resilient healthcare infrastructure. The model offers a robust framework for other regions facing similar economic and energy challenges, highlighting the importance of renewable energy solutions in healthcare.

Vitamin D Deficiency in Lebanese Adults: Prevalence and Predictors from a Cross-Sectional Community-Based Study.

METHODS: A random sample of Lebanese adults residing in the Greater Beirut area was selected based on area probability and multistage cluster sampling. Data from 446 participants (68% females) with mean age 45.3 ± 15 years were used for the analyses. Participants were recruited between March and May. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels were measured using electrochemiluminescent immunoassay. RESULTS: Vitamin D deficiency was highly prevalent whether using the cutoff of 50 nmol/L or using the more conservative cutoff of 30 nmol/L; more specifically, 71.9% and 39.1% of the study population were deficient using the above cutoffs, respectively In the bivariate analyses, gender, BMI and body fat mass, socioeconomic factors (income and education level), alcohol consumption, dietary intake of fat and of vitamin D, serum LDL-cholesterol, and serum creatinine were all associated with vitamin D status. After adjustment for multiple covariates, age, income, alcohol consumption, and serum creatinine were independent predictors of vitamin D deficiency. CONCLUSION: Vitamin D deficiency is highly prevalent in Lebanon. Preventive measures should target the modifiable risk factors.

Systematic review of major osteoporotic fracture to hip fracture incidence rate ratios worldwide: implications for Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)-derived estimates.

The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) is the most widely used tool for fracture prediction. It provides 10-year probabilities for hip and major osteoporotic fracture (MOF). It uses country-specific hip fracture incidence and life expectancy data, and for most countries, MOF/hip fracture incidence rate ratios (IRRs) from Malmo Sweden. However, the risk of MOF varies by age, sex, and geography. The objective is to compare the MOF/hip IRRs across countries, by sex and age. This systematic review targeted observational studies of MOF and hip fractures in individuals >50 years (PROSPERO 2019 CRD42019129259). One reviewer screened potential articles. Two reviewers completed duplicate and independent data abstraction, and assessed study quality based on population representativeness, study design and duration, definition of ethnicity, and fracture characteristics. We calculated the MOF/hip IRRs (95% confidence interval) and Z-values to compare IRRs in various countries to those for Sweden. We included 27 studies, of fair to good quality in the majority, from Europe (15), US and Canada (7), Asia (3), and Australia (2). The IRRs were twofold to 10-fold higher in younger compared to older age categories, and in women compared to men, with few exceptions. Within Europe, and using Sweden as a reference, MOF/Hip IRRs in women 50-54 years from Finland, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, and UK were significantly lower by 38% to 60%. Findings were similar in men. At older ages, MOF/Hip IRRs were consistently lower in women from European countries compared to Sweden, by 10%-40% and 11%-51%, at 75-79 years and 85-89 years, respectively. Findings were heterogenous in men and in non-European countries. In conclusion, the MOF/hip fracture IRR may vary between countries. The variability at older ages may affect FRAX prediction when country-specific fracture IRRs are not used. Further research is needed to elucidate the implication of our findings to FRAX-derived MOF estimates in various countries. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Impact of vitamin D supplementation on falls and fractures-A critical appraisal of the quality of the evidence and an overview of the available guidelines.

INTRODUCTION: The beneficial effect of vitamin D supplementation on musculo-skeletal outcomes have been recently questioned and recommendations regarding supplementation vary widely. The aim of this paper is to systematically assess the quality of the evidence evaluating the effect of vitamin D supplementation on falls and fractures. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search in Medline, PubMed, and Embase and selected systematic reviews (SRs) / meta-analyses (MAs) of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on vitamin D supplementation and falls or fracture, published between 2012 - 2018. We identified 5 MAs of RCTs on falls, 4 on fractures and 4 on both outcomes. We applied the critical appraisal tool "A MeaSurement Tool to Assess systematic Reviews 2" - AMSTAR 2 - to assess the quality of the identified MAs. RESULTS: Vitamin D and calcium supplementation (CaD), compared to calcium only or placebo, may reduce the risk of falls, in institutionalized individuals and/or those from the community, but the data is inconsistent. The largest and most consistent evidence for a protective effect of CaD, compared to placebo or control, is in reducing the risk of hip fracture, by 16-33%, and any fracture, by 5-19%. This effect was demonstrated when combining trials in community-dwelling and institutionalized individuals, potentially driven by data from institutionalized individuals as shown in 3 SRs/MAs. Major limitations to the quality of the evidence include variability in the methodology of MAs, but more importantly, differences between trials in terms of subjects' characteristics, vitamin D regimens, outcome definition and ascertainment, risk of bias, trial duration and/or low power. The quality of the included MAs was moderate to critically low. CONCLUSIONS: While the effect on falls is inconsistent, CaD reduces the risk of fracture (hip and any fracture), as shown in meta-analyses pooling data of studies combining institutionalized and community individuals. The evidence is however limited by major shortcomings and heterogeneity.

Vitamin D in the Middle East and North Africa.

PURPOSE: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region registers some of the lowest serum 25­hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations, worldwide. We describe the prevalence and the risk factors for hypovitaminosis D, completed and ongoing clinical trials, and available guidelines for vitamin D supplementation in this region. METHODS: This review is an update of previous reviews published by our group in 2013 for observational studies, and in 2015 for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from the region. We conducted a comprehensive search in Medline, PubMed, and Embase, and the Cochrane Library, using MeSH terms and keywords relevant to vitamin D, vitamin D deficiency, and the MENA region, for the period 2012-2017 for observational studies, and 2015-2017 for RCTs. We included large cross-sectional studies with at least 100 subjects/study, and RCTs with at least 50 participants per arm. RESULTS: We identified 41 observational studies. The prevalence of hypovitaminosis D, defined as a 25­hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] level below the desirable level of 20 ng/ml, ranged between 12-96% in children and adolescents, and 54-90% in pregnant women. In adults, it ranged between 44 and 96%, and the mean 25(OH)D varied between 11 and 20 ng/ml. In general, significant predictors of low 25(OH)D levels were female gender, increasing age and body mass index, veiling, winter season, use of sun screens, lower socioeconomic status, and higher latitude.We retrieved 14 RCTs comparing supplementation to control or placebo, published during the period 2015-2017: 2 in children, 8 in adults, and 4 in pregnant women. In children and adolescents, a vitamin D dose of 1000-2000 IU/d was needed to maintain serum 25(OH)D level at target. In adults and pregnant women, the increment in 25(OH)D level was inversely proportional to the dose, ranging between 0.9 and 3 ng/ml per 100 IU/d for doses ≤2000 IU/d, and between 0.1 and 0.6 ng/ml per 100 IU/d for doses ≥3000 IU/d. While the effect of vitamin D supplementation on glycemic indices is still controversial in adults, vitamin D supplementation may be protective against gestational diabetes mellitus in pregnant women. In the only identified study in the elderly, there was no significant difference between 600 IU/day and 3750 IU/day doses on bone mineral density. We did not identify any fracture studies.The available vitamin D guidelines in the region are based on expert opinion, with recommended doses between 400 and 2000 IU/d, depending on the age category, and country. CONCLUSION: Hypovitaminosis D is prevalent in the MENA region, and doses of 1000-2000 IU/d may be necessary to reach a desirable 25(OH)D level of 20 ng/ml. Studies assessing the effect of such doses of vitamin D on major outcomes, and confirming their long term safety, are needed.

The workforce trends of nurses in Lebanon (2009-2014): A registration database analysis.

BACKGROUND: Analysis of the nursing registration databases is a highly informative approach that provides accurate and reliable information supporting evidence based decisions relevant to the nursing workforce planning, management and development. This study presents the first systematic analysis of the nursing registration database in Lebanon. It Reports on the workforce distribution and trends using an updated version of the Order of Nurses in Lebanon (ONL) databases. METHODS: This study presents a secondary data analysis of a de-identified subset of the updated ONL registration database. The workforce participation status of ONL registered nurses was categorized as active and eligible. For active nurses sectors and sub-sectors of employment were defined. Eligible nurses were categorized as unemployed, working outside nursing and working abroad. SPSS was used to conduct descriptive analysis to present workforce trends of Lebanese nurses for year 2009-2014 as frequencies, percentages and percentage changes. RESULTS: Increases in the size of the Active (35%) and Eligible (86%) nurses were observed over the past six years. The majority of nurses fell in the below 35 years age group (60% in 2014). The hospital sector remained the principle employer, with 87% of Lebanese nurses working in hospitals in 2014. A 173% increases was reported for nurses working abroad. DISCUSSION: Despite the growth of the Active nursing workforce, the skewed distribution of nurses in the below 35 age group and the growth in the Eligible category, especially for nurses living abroad, raise concerns on the longevity of nurses in the profession and the reasons for their attrition from the workforce. CONCLUSION: There is a need to investigate the push and pull factors that are affecting nurses and the design of policies and interventions that would encourage nurses to remain active in Lebanon. Furthermore, policies and interventions that would create employment opportunities outside hospitals, especially in the Community sector, are recommended.