The impact of JUUL market entry on cigarette sales: evidence from a major chain retailer in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), such as the JUUL system, are nicotine products for adults who currently smoke cigarettes but are looking for an alternative to combustible cigarettes. Sales of ENDS products were legislatively acknowledged and authorized federally in Canada with the Royal Assent of the Tobacco and Vaping Products Act in 2018. METHODS: With the unique dataset from a major chain retailer in Canada, we evaluated the impacts of JUUL market entry on cigarette sales across Canada from January 2017 to August 2019 using two-way fixed effects panel regression models by leveraging on the entry time variation at the city level. We conducted various robustness checks and a permutation test to validate our results. RESULTS: Our estimates suggested that JUUL market entry was, on average, significantly correlated with a 1.65% per-month decrease in cigarette sales during the initial months, and with a potentially larger impact on urban areas. Our results were robust across various specifications and tests. These findings implied that JUUL and combustible cigarettes act as economic substitutes during the study time period in Canada. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggested that local availability of ENDS products, such as JUUL, has the potential to reduce local cigarette consumption.

The Impact of Banning Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems on Combustible Cigarette Sales: Evidence From US State-Level Policies.

OBJECTIVES: In the fall of 2019, several states in the United States passed emergency bans on the sale of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), in response to an outbreak of illnesses strongly linked to tetrahydrocannabinol vaping products that received national news coverage. Given that ENDS are potential alternative nicotine products for adult smokers, banning ENDS may have unintended consequences. This study provides evidence of an association between state-level ENDS bans and cigarette sales. METHODS: We used difference-in-differences and generalized synthetic control methods to estimate the impacts of the emergency ENDS bans on cigarette sales by comparing treatment states that passed ENDS bans in fall 2019 (Massachusetts, Washington, and Rhode Island), halted states that revoked the announced ENDS bans, and control states. RESULTS: Our results show that cigarette sales in ban states were higher than would have been observed otherwise in the post-ban period. A full ban on ENDS was associated with increased cigarette sales of 7.5% in Massachusetts (P < .01); banning non-tobacco flavored ENDS was associated with 4.6% (P < .1) higher-than-expected cigarette sales. We did not detect statistically significant impacts in halted states, and placebo tests, which randomly assigned control states as treatments, showed no difference in observed cigarette sales in the same period. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that banning ENDS is associated with increased cigarette sales. Future research is needed to determine the long-term impact of these policies.

Improving Retailer Compliance for Tobacco Purchases: Pilot Study Findings.

Objectives: Those underage should not use tobacco products, including electronic nicotine delivery systems. A technologically-based solution developed by Juul Labs Inc to restrict underage access seeks to automate transactions, structurally mandate age-verification, and limit the quantity of JUUL products purchased per transaction. A pilot of this standards-based approach, referred to as RACS™ (Retail Access Control Standards), was conducted to assess efficacy. Methods: RACS was implemented at 171 stores within 3 retail chains selling tobacco products in 3 states. "Secret shopper" compliance audits, in which a mystery shopper attempted to purchase JUUL products, were conducted at participating stores before and after implementation of RACS, to test compliance with age-verification and product-quantity limits. Audit failure rates were compared pre- and post-RACS implementation to assess effectiveness. Comparisons were made overall, by chain, state, and failure type. Results: A total of 3990 audits were conducted. We found large, statistically significant reductions (p < .001) in failure rates for age-verification and compliance with product-quantity limits after implementing RACS, as compared to pre-RACS rates, declining to near zero. Conclusions: Utilizing enhanced access controls can be part of a comprehensive, evidence-based tobacco-control strategy to address underage use of all tobacco products, including JUUL.