Impact of COVID-19 on selected essential public health services - lessons learned from a retrospective record review in the Free State, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: In an attempt to discern lessons to improve future pandemic responses, this study measured the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on essential public health services (EPHSs) related to primary health care (PHC) and outpatient department (OPD) utilisation, antiretroviral treatment (ART) commencement, drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB) confirmation and treatment commencement, and Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) coverage, in the Free State province of South Africa during January 2019 to March 2021. METHODS: A pre-post study design comparing EPHS performance between 2019 and 2020/21 was employed. Routinely collected data were analysed. An interrupted time series analysis was used to measure changes in service use and outcomes from January 2019 to March 2021. Median changes were compared using Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. A 5% statistical significance level was considered. RESULTS: Over the study period, the median values for the annual number of PHC visits was 1.80, 55.30% for non-referred OPD visits, 69.40% for ART commencement, 95.10% and 18.70% for DS-TB confirmation and treatment commencement respectively, and 93.70% for BCG coverage. While BCG coverage increased by 5.85% (p = 0.010), significant declines were observed in PHC utilisation (10.53%; p = 0.001), non-referred OPD visits (12.05%; p < 0.001), and ART commencement (9.53%; p = 0.017) rates. Given the importance of PHC in addressing a new pandemic, along with the existing HIV and TB epidemics - as well as the entire quadruple burden of disease - in South Africa, the finding that the PHC utilisation rate statistically significantly decreased in the Free State post-COVID-19 commencement is particularly concerning. CONCLUSIONS: The lessons learned from this retrospective review attest to a measure of resilience in EPHS delivery in the Free State in as far as a significant hike in BCG vaccination over the study period, 2019-2020/21 was observed. As evidenced by a decline in PHC service utilisation and the decreased numbers of new patients commencing ART, we also learned that EPHS delivery in the province was fragile.

Improving public health sector service delivery in the Free State, South Africa: development of a provincial intervention model.

BACKGROUND: Public health sector service delivery challenges leading to poor population health outcomes have been observed in the Free State province of South Africa for the past decade. A multi-method situation appraisal of the different functional domains revealed serious health system deficiencies and operational defects, notably fragmentation of healthcare programmes and frontline services, as well as challenges related to governance, accountability and human resources for health. It was therefore necessary to develop a system-wide intervention to comprehensively address defects in the operation of the public health system and its major components. METHODS: This study describes the development of the 'Health Systems Governance & Accountability' (HSGA) intervention model by the Free State Department of Health (FSDoH) in collaboration with the community and other stakeholders following a participatory action approach. Documented information collected during routine management processes were reviewed for this paper. Starting in March 2013, the development of the HSGA intervention model and the concomitant application of Kaplan and Norton's (1992) Balanced Scorecard performance measurement tool was informed by the World Health Organization's (2007) conceptual framework for health system strengthening and reform comprised of six health system 'building blocks.' The multiple and overlapping processes and actions to develop the intervention are described according to the four steps in Kaplan et al.'s (2013) systems approach to health systems strengthening: (i) problem identification, (ii) description, (iii) alteration and (iv) implementation. RESULTS: The finalisation of the HSGA intervention model before end-2013 was a prelude to the development of the FSDoH's Strategic Transformation Plan 2015-2030. The HSGA intervention model was used as a tool to implement and integrate the Plan's programmes moving forward with a consistent focus on the six building blocks for health systems strengthening and the all-important linkages between them. CONCLUSION: The model was developed to address fragmentation and improve public health service delivery by the provincial health department. In January 2016, the intervention model became an official departmental policy, meaning that it was approved for implementation, compliance, monitoring and reporting, and became the guiding framework for health systems strengthening and transform in the Free State.

Risk factors for mortality in TB patients: a 10-year electronic record review in a South African province.

BACKGROUND: Since 1990, reduction of tuberculosis (TB) mortality has been lower in South Africa than in other high-burden countries in Africa. This research investigated the influence of routinely captured demographic and clinical or programme variables on death in TB patients in the Free State Province. METHODS: A retrospective review of case information captured in the Electronic TB register (ETR.net) over the years 2003 to 2012 was conducted. Extracted data were subjected to descriptive and logistic regression analyses. The outcome variable was defined as all registered TB cases with 'died' as the recorded outcome. The variables associated with increased or decreased odds of dying in TB patients were established. The univariate and adjusted odds ratios (OR and AOR) together with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated, taking the clustering effect of the districts into account. RESULTS: Of the 190,472 TB cases included in the analysis, 30,991 (16.3%) had 'died' as the recorded treatment outcome. The proportion of TB patients that died increased from 15.1% in 2003 to 17.8% in 2009, before declining to 15.4% in 2012. The odds of dying was incrementally higher in the older age groups: 8-17 years (AOR: 2.0; CI: 1.5-2.7), 18-49 years (AOR: 5.8; CI: 4.0-8.4), 50-64 years (AOR: 7.7; CI: 4.6-12.7), and ≥65 years (AOR: 14.4; CI: 10.3-20.2). Other factors associated with increased odds of mortality included: HIV co-infection (males - AOR: 2.4; CI: 2.1-2.8; females - AOR: 1.9; CI: 1.7-2.1) or unknown HIV status (males - AOR: 2.8; CI: 2.5-3.1; females - AOR: 2.4; CI: 2.2-2.6), having a negative (AOR: 1.4; CI: 1.3-1.6) or a missing (AOR: 2.1; CI: 1.4-3.2) pre-treatment sputum smear result, and being a retreatment case (AOR: 1.3; CI: 1.2-1.4). CONCLUSIONS: Although mortality in TB patients in the Free State has been falling since 2009, it remained high at more than 15% in 2012. Appropriately targeted treatment and care for the identified high-risk groups could be considered.

I don't know what I am doing because I am doing everything: perceptions and experiences of nurses about HIV counselling and testing among children in Free State Province, South Africa.

Although HIV/AIDS constitute a significant health burden among children in South Africa, testing and counselling of exposed children are inadequate. It is therefore imperative that factors relating to paediatric HCT services offered by health workers are examined. This study was conducted to explore and describe the perceptions and experiences of trained professional nurses regarding HIV counselling and testing among children. We conducted six focus group discussions among trained professional nurses in health facilities in a district in Free State Province, South Africa. All verbatim transcripts were analysed with a thematic approach and emergent codes were applied. Forty-seven trained professional nurses participated in the study and two of them were males. The age of the participants ranges from 38 to 60 years while the median age was 50 years. Most participants in the focus groups explained how HCT occurs during regular health talks and that lay counsellors are doing most of the counselling. While a few participants thought that children should not be bothered with HCT, most of them seek consent from caregivers for HIV test for children. While children whose parents are negative are usually not tested, most children are tested only when they become ill. Identified barriers to HCT among children include refusal of consent, work overload, lack of encouragement, and poor record keeping. Participants recommended improvement of issues relating to community mobilization and increasing trained staff strength for optimal paediatric HCT service delivery. Developing guidance and policies with respect to obtaining consent, recruiting more health providers, and addressing structural issues in the society to reduce stigma and discrimination were identified as key priority issues by majority of the participants. The perspectives of these participants who provide paediatric HCT services offer vital insight which may be useful to inform policy interventions.

Hepatitis B immunisation and immune status of nurses in a regional hospital in central South Africa.

BACKGROUND:  The hepatitis B virus (HBV) is one of the most important biological occupational hazards for healthcare workers. A high percentage of HBV infections are attributable to percutaneous occupational exposure. This study aimed to describe the HBV immunisation and current immune status of all the nurses employed in a regional hospital in central South Africa. METHODS:  A descriptive record review included all the nurses (N = 388) employed in a regional hospital in central South Africa from 01 January 2018 to 31 January 2020. A total of 289 health records were included in the study. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics. Logistic regression analysis was used to establish factors associated with full immunisation. RESULTS:  Most nurses were females (87.9%), working in medical (27.0%) wards. Only 20.4% of nurses received one dose of vaccine, while 51.2% received the three prescribed doses. However, 91.2% of nurses did not receive the vaccine at the correct intervals. Most of the tested nurses (71.0%) were immune. Immunisation status was significantly associated with religion (p  0.001) and schedule (p = 0.003). Nurses who were non-Christians were 35.9% less likely to be fully vaccinated compared to Christians. CONCLUSION:  Half of the nursing staff received three doses as prescribed. All nurses should receive the vaccine against HBV and their immune status monitored to minimise the risk of an infection. It is therefore recommended that proof of immunity should be a requirement.Contribution: This study found a high percentage of nurses with HBV antibodies, which will ensure workplace safety.

Exploring Health Research Priority Setting in a South African Province: A Nominal Group Technique Approach.

In August 2022, the Free State Provincial Health Research Committee used the online nominal group technique (NGT) for Health Research Priority Setting (HRPS) for the Free State Department of Health (FSDoH) and the research community, considering various stakeholders' perspectives. This paper explores and describes the identified health research priorities. It also assesses their alignment with the National Health Research Strategy. Additionally, it provides an opinion on the feasibility of using the online NGT for collaborative co-creation of provincial-level health research priorities. Most of the identified health research priorities resonate with the national health research priorities identified by the National Health Research Committee. However, research to "strengthen surveillance" was uniquely perceived to be a priority by the participants in the Free State HRPS exercise. A plausible reason for this might be their heightened awareness of the vital role optimal surveillance systems play in coordinating intersectoral responses to pandemics, particularly considering the serious challenges emerging during the initial stages of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Steady-state pharmacokinetics of lamivudine in end-stage kidney failure persons with detectable and undetectable HIV-1 RNA in peritoneal dialysis effluent.

BACKGROUND: Renally adjusted lamivudine dosages are effective. However, some of the kidney failure patients managed with lamivudine-containing regimens are failing to suppress HIV in peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) effluent. The steady-state lamivudine pharmacokinetics among these patients was evaluated. METHODS: This overnight open-label pharmacokinetic study enrolled participants living with HIV and managed with CAPD. Lamivudine levels in blood serum and CAPD effluent samples were quantified using liquid chromatography coupled with a mass spectrometer. Pharmacokinetic measures were obtained through non-compartmental analysis. RESULTS: Twenty-eight participants were recruited with a median antiretroviral (ARV) drug duration of 8 (IQR,4.5-10.5) years and a CAPD duration of 13.3 (IQR,3.3-31.9) months. 14.3% (4/28) had detectable unsuppressed HIV-1 viral load in CAPD effluents. The majority (78,6%,22/28) of participants received a 50 mg dose, while 10.7% (3/28), and another 10.7% (3/28) received 75 mg and 300 mg dosages, respectively. Among those treated with 75 and 300 mg, 66.7% (2/3) and 33.3% (1/3) had detectable HIV-VL in CAPD, respectively. The peritoneal membrane characteristics and CAPD system strengths were variable across the entire study population. Lamivudine exposure was increased in blood serum (50 mg-AUC0-24 h, 651.3 ng/mL; 75 mg-AUC0-24 h, 677.84 ng/mL; 300 mg-AUC0-24 h, 3135.89 ng/mL) compared to CAPD effluents (50 mg-AUC0-24 h, 384.91 ng/mL; 75 mg-AUC0-24 h, 383.24 ng/mL; 300 mg-AUC0-24 h, 2001.60 ng/mL) among the entire study population. The Cmax (50 mg, 41.5 ng/mL; 75 mg, 53.2 ng/mL; 300 mg, 199.1 ng/mL) and Cmin (50 mg, 17.8 ng/mL; 75 mg, 16.4 ng/mL; 300 mg, 76.4 ng/mL) measured in serum were within the therapeutic levels. CONCLUSIONS: Steady-state lamivudine pharmacokinetic measures were variable among the entire study population. However, the total lamivudine exposure was within the therapeutic levels.

Health managers and community representatives' views of a system-wide intervention to strengthen public healthcare in the Free State, South Africa.

Background: A system-wide health system strengthening (HSS) initiative, the Health Systems Governance and Accountability (HSGA) intervention, was developed, translated to policy, and implemented in the Free State province. This study assessed health managers (HMs) and community representatives' (CRs) views of the intervention and whether it improved integration and performance. Method: A questionnaire survey among 147 HMs and 78 CRs and 14 focus group discussions (FGDs) with a mean of 10.3 participants and a total of 102 HMs and 42 CRs, were conducted. The questionnaire and FGD data were descriptively and thematically analysed to triangulate findings. Results: Many HMs (44%) mostly positioned at the operational levels indicated that implementation of the HSGA intervention did contribute to integration of health services. Most CRs (54%) believed that communities were actively involved in the intervention. However, both the self-administered questionnaire and the FGD data evidenced lack of policy awareness among, especially, operational-level HMs. Conclusion: From the perspectives of HMs and CRs, the implementation of the intervention was viewed as a step forward in strengthening public healthcare to respond to system deficiencies in the Free State province. Earlier engagement of especially operational-level HMs during reforms may be beneficial in successfully implementing HSS interventions.

Implementing an intervention to improve leadership/management of public healthcare services in the Free State Province, South Africa: lessons learned.

Background: Based on the World Health Organization's health systems strengthening framework, the Health Systems Governance and Accountability (HSGA) intervention to strengthen public health leadership/management, service integration and outcomes was developed in the Free State. Objectives: This study describes the process to implement and measure the effects of the HSGA intervention for system-wide improvement of leadership/management under routine conditions in a resource-constrained setting. Methods: Based on normalisation process theory, participatory discussions were held with health managers, staff and local stakeholders to attain buy-in. Evaluation of the implementation process considered progress in improving leadership/management through application of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC). All provincial reporting units were assessed during 2014/15 and again during 2015/16. Results: The mean scores on three BSC perspectives improved statistically significantly from 2014/15 to 2015/16: customer (p=0.0085), internal business processes (p=0.0008) and finance (p=0.0001). Overall leadership/management also improved significantly (p=0.0007). Conclusion: Improvement in leadership/management resulting from implementation of the HSGA intervention was observed during the two years under study. From this experience, successful implementation of a health systems strengthening intervention hinges on a participatory design, appropriate use of theory, as well as application of an evaluation approach to assess the success of implementation.

Predictors of condom use and refusal among the population of Free State province in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the extent and predictors of condom use and condom refusal in the Free State province in South Africa. METHODS: Through a household survey conducted in the Free Sate province of South Africa, 5,837 adults were interviewed. Univariate and multivariate survey logistic regressions and classification trees (CT) were used for analysing two response variables 'ever used condom' and 'ever refused condom'. RESULTS: Eighty-three per cent of the respondents had ever used condoms, of which 38% always used them; 61% used them during the last sexual intercourse and 9% had ever refused to use them. The univariate logistic regression models and CT analysis indicated that a strong predictor of condom use was its perceived need. In the CT analysis, this variable was followed in importance by 'knowledge of correct use of condom', condom availability, young age, being single and higher education. 'Perceived need' for condoms did not remain significant in the multivariate analysis after controlling for other variables. The strongest predictor of condom refusal, as shown by the CT, was shame associated with condoms followed by the presence of sexual risk behaviour, knowing one's HIV status, older age and lacking knowledge of condoms (i.e., ability to prevent sexually transmitted diseases and pregnancy, availability, correct and consistent use and existence of female condoms). In the multivariate logistic regression, age was not significant for condom refusal while affordability and perceived need were additional significant variables. CONCLUSIONS: The use of complementary modelling techniques such as CT in addition to logistic regressions adds to a better understanding of condom use and refusal. Further improvement in correct and consistent use of condoms will require targeted interventions. In addition to existing social marketing campaigns, tailored approaches should focus on establishing the perceived need for condom-use and improving skills for correct use. They should also incorporate interventions to reduce the shame associated with condoms and individual counselling of those likely to refuse condoms.

A Survey to Determine the Capacity Development Needs of Research Ethics Committee Administrators in South Africa.

Most capacity development efforts for research ethics committees focus on committee members and little on ethics administrators. Increasing studies mandate the focus on administrators' capacity development needs to enable adequate and effective committee support. This study investigated current responsibilities, training requirements, and administrator role needs. An online cross-sectional survey was conducted among administrators from 62 National Health Research Ethics Council-registered research ethics committees in South Africa. In total, 36 administrators completed the questionnaire. Results show that, in addition to administration, they perform managerial, review process and guidance-advisory tasks. Nearly 49% indicated only having received informal research ethics-related training, not targeted formal training, with 81% of the informal training being through workshops. Research ethics administrators' responsibilities have evolved to complex tasks requiring targeted capacity development efforts.

Capacity Development of Research Ethics Administrators: Scoping Review.

Capacity development of research ethics committees is generally limited to members, and seldom includes administrators. This study sought to map the capacity development efforts of research ethics administrators. A scoping review was conducted. The literature search yielded 92 potentially relevant records, and further screening yielded 22 studies. The 22 studies were extracted and synthesized; two studies spoke directly on administrators' capacity development, while the remaining 20 focused on the capacity development of committees or of committee members. The two studies which spoke directly on administrators reported about two capacity development efforts targeting administrators in Africa, namely the African Conference for Administrators of Research Ethics Committees, and the West African Bioethics Training Program.

Risk factors for COVID-19-related in-hospital mortality in a high HIV and tuberculosis prevalence setting in South Africa: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The interaction between COVID-19, non-communicable diseases, and chronic infectious diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis is unclear, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries in Africa. South Africa has a national HIV prevalence of 19% among people aged 15-49 years and a tuberculosis prevalence of 0·7% in people of all ages. Using a nationally representative hospital surveillance system in South Africa, we aimed to investigate the factors associated with in-hospital mortality among patients with COVID-19. METHODS: In this cohort study, we used data submitted to DATCOV, a national active hospital surveillance system for COVID-19 hospital admissions, for patients admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 5, 2020, and March 27, 2021. Age, sex, race or ethnicity, and comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, chronic cardiac disease, chronic pulmonary disease and asthma, chronic renal disease, malignancy in the past 5 years, HIV, and past and current tuberculosis) were considered as risk factors for COVID-19-related in-hospital mortality. COVID-19 in-hospital mortality, the main outcome, was defined as a death related to COVID-19 that occurred during the hospital stay and excluded deaths that occurred because of other causes or after discharge from hospital; therefore, only patients with a known in-hospital outcome (died or discharged alive) were included. Chained equation multiple imputation was used to account for missing data and random-effects multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess the role of HIV status and underlying comorbidities on COVID-19 in-hospital mortality. FINDINGS: Among the 219 265 individuals admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and known in-hospital outcome data, 51 037 (23·3%) died. Most commonly observed comorbidities among individuals with available data were hypertension in 61 098 (37·4%) of 163 350, diabetes in 43 885 (27·4%) of 159 932, and HIV in 13 793 (9·1%) of 151 779. Tuberculosis was reported in 5282 (3·6%) of 146 381 individuals. Increasing age was the strongest predictor of COVID-19 in-hospital mortality. Other factors associated were HIV infection (adjusted odds ratio 1·34, 95% CI 1·27-1·43), past tuberculosis (1·26, 1·15-1·38), current tuberculosis (1·42, 1·22-1·64), and both past and current tuberculosis (1·48, 1·32-1·67) compared with never tuberculosis, as well as other described risk factors for COVID-19, such as male sex; non-White race; underlying hypertension, diabetes, chronic cardiac disease, chronic renal disease, and malignancy in the past 5 years; and treatment in the public health sector. After adjusting for other factors, people with HIV not on antiretroviral therapy (ART; adjusted odds ratio 1·45, 95% CI 1·22-1·72) were more likely to die in hospital than were people with HIV on ART. Among people with HIV, the prevalence of other comorbidities was 29·2% compared with 30·8% among HIV-uninfected individuals. Increasing number of comorbidities was associated with increased COVID-19 in-hospital mortality risk in both people with HIV and HIV-uninfected individuals. INTERPRETATION: Individuals identified as being at high risk of COVID-19 in-hospital mortality (older individuals and those with chronic comorbidities and people with HIV, particularly those not on ART) would benefit from COVID-19 prevention programmes such as vaccine prioritisation as well as early referral and treatment. FUNDING: South African National Government.

Effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment in a South African program: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of the South African government's expanding antiretroviral treatment program is unknown. Observational studies of treatment effectiveness are prone to selection bias, rarely compare patients receiving antiretroviral treatment with similar patients not receiving antiretroviral treatment, and underestimate mortality rates unless patients are actively followed up. METHODS: We followed up 14 267 patients in the Public Sector Anti-Retroviral Treatment project in Free State, South Africa, for up to 20 months after enrollment. A total of 3619 patients received highly active triple antiretroviral treatment (HAART) for up to 19 months (median, 6 months; interquartile range, 3-9 months) after enrollment. Patients' clinical data were linked with the national mortality register. Marginal structural regression models adjusted for baseline and time-varying covariates. RESULTS: Of 4570 patients followed up for at least 1 year, 53.2% died. Eighty-seven percent of patients who died had not received HAART. HAART was associated with lower mortality (hazard ratio, 0.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.11-0.18) and with the presence of tuberculosis (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.46-0.81) after adjusting for age, sex, weight, clinic, district, CD4 cell count, cotrimoxazole therapy, tuberculosis at baseline, and previous antiretroviral therapy. Cotrimoxazole therapy was associated with lower mortality (hazard ratio, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.32-0.42). Each month of HAART was associated with an increase in CD4 cell count of 15.1 cells/microL (95% CI, 14.7-15.5 cells/microL) and with an increase in body weight of 602 g (95% CI, 548-658 g). CONCLUSIONS: HAART provided through these South African government health services seems as effective as that provided in high-income countries. Delays starting HAART contributed to high mortality rates. Faster expansion and timely commencement of HAART are needed.

Serum albumin and mortality in patients with HIV and end-stage renal failure on peritoneal dialysis.

BACKGROUND: Peritoneal dialysis (PD) is an easily implementable dialysis modality in end-stage renal disease (ESRD). PD may improve access to renal replacement therapy in low- and middle-income countries; however, these countries have a higher prevalence of protein-energy wasting in patients and poorer socioeconomic conditions. We evaluated the effects of HIV infection on serum albumin levels in ESRD patients starting continuous ambulatory PD (CAPD) and mortality outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a single-center prospective cohort study of consecutive incident CAPD patients recruited from two hospitals in Durban, South Africa, from September 2012 to February 2015. Seventy HIV-negative and 70 HIV-positive ESRD patients were followed monthly for serum albumin levels and mortality events during the first 18 months of CAPD therapy. RESULTS: The HIV-positive cohort recorded 28 deaths (40%) among patients with a functional CAPD catheter at 18 months and 13 deaths (18.6%) in the HIV-negative cohort (p = 0.005). The mean serum albumin levels were lower in the HIV-positive cohort than in the HIV-negative cohort during the 18-month follow-up. The mean difference in serum albumin levels between the two cohorts was 4.24 g/L (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.02-6.46, p<0.001) at baseline and 3.99 g/L (95% CI 1.19-6.79, p = 0.006) at 18 months. HIV-positive status (adjusted regression coefficient -2.84, CI -5.00--0.67, p = 0.011), diabetes (adjusted coefficient -2.85; CI, -5.58--0.12; p = 0.041), and serum C-reactive protein and blood hemoglobin levels were independent predictors of serum albumin levels on multivariable linear regression. Baseline serum albumin <25 g/L (subdistribution-hazard ratio [SHR] 13.06, 95% CI 3.09-55.14, p<0.001) and CD4+ cell count <200 cells/µL (SHR 3.2, CI 1.38-7.45, p = 0.007) were independent predictors of mortality in our competing risk model. CONCLUSIONS: HIV infection can adversely affect serum albumin levels in ESRD patients managed with CAPD, while low baseline serum albumin levels and impaired immunity reliably predict mortality.

A Retrospective Analysis of Two-Month Sputum Smear Non-Conversion in New Sputum Smear Positive Tuberculosis Patients in the Free State Province, South Africa.

Little is known about the drivers of two-month sputum smear non-conversion in the South African context. Our study sought to determine these factors in new sputum smear positive tuberculosis (TB) patients in South Africa's Free State Province. A retrospective record review was conducted for all TB patients on treatment between 2003 and 2009. Two-month sputum smear non-conversion was defined by a positive sputum smear result. Data was subjected to univariate, bivariate and regression analyses. Generalized linear regression models were used to estimate the risk for two-month sputum smear non-conversion. Age, pre-treatment sputum smear grading, HIV status and TB disease classification influenced two-month sputum smear non-conversion. Significant associations were thus established between health systems, microbiological, clinical and demographic factors, and two-month sputum smear non-conversion. This study provides program managers with evidence to support the development of more tailored TB care.

Bias in a binary risk behaviour model subject to inconsistent reports and dropout in a South African high school cohort study.

We describe a methodology for analysing self-reported risk behaviour transitional patterns in a binary outcome variable, subject to misclassification and a large loss to follow-up. The motivation stems from the analysis of self-reported transitional patterns in responses to the question 'have you ever smoked a whole cigarette?' in a cohort of South African school children. The partially complete records analysis (PCRA) introduced, estimates the transitional probability as: the ratio of the joint probability of the response at two time points based on the complete records for this time sequence over the marginal probabilities of the response based on the complete records at the first time point, and assumes a non-informative missing pattern. A comparison was made using un-weighted complete records and inverse probability weighted logistic regression. The estimates of the probabilities of reporting ever having smoked a cigarette obtained from the three methods were similar for a particular transition. The PCRA method lacked precision compared with the inverse probability weighted logistic regression. A simulation study indicated an association between bias and reporting error in all three methods. The PCRA method can be considered as a method for the estimation of transition probabilities in a cohort study where there is consistency in the self-reported risk behaviour pattern and the sample size is large at baseline. The inverse probability weighting approach is more precise and is suitable for this setting in order to determine risk factors for the incidence of self-reported substance used in a cohort with a high dropout rate.

Leisure boredom and high school dropout in Cape Town, South Africa.

This prospective cohort study investigated whether leisure boredom predicts high school dropout. Leisure boredom is the perception that leisure experiences do not satisfy the need for optimal arousal. Participants completed a self-report questionnaire which included the Leisure Boredom Scale. The original cohort of grade 8 students (n=303) was followed up twice at 2-yearly intervals. Of the 281 students at the second follow-up, 149 (53.0%) students had dropped out of school. The effect of leisure boredom on dropout was investigated using logistic regression taking into account the clustering effect of the schools in the sampling strategy, and adjusting for age, gender and racially classified social group. Leisure boredom was a significant predictor of dropout (OR=1.08; 95% CI: 1.01-1.15) in students 14 years and older, but not so in younger students (OR=1.0; 95% CI: 0.95-1.05). The study has shown that measuring leisure boredom in grade 8 students can help identify students who are more likely to dropout of school. Further research is needed to investigate the longitudinal association between leisure boredom and school dropout.