Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on community antibiotic consumption in the EU/European Economic Area: a changepoint analysis.

OBJECTIVES: A decrease in community antibiotic consumption in Europe has been observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The magnitude of this decrease, how fast after the outbreak it occurred, whether it was sustained during the pandemic and whether the seasonal variation in antibiotic consumption was affected, have not yet been evaluated in detail. METHODS: Data on community antibiotic consumption were available from the European Surveillance of Antimicrobial Consumption Network for 28 EU/European Economic Area (EEA) countries between 2010 and 2021. Antibiotic consumption was expressed as DDDs per 1000 inhabitants per day (DID). The impact of the pandemic on antibiotic consumption was investigated using descriptive statistics and non-linear mixed changepoint models for quarterly and yearly data. RESULTS: The decrease in overall antibiotic consumption between 2019 and 2020 (-3.4 DID; -18.6%) was mainly due to a decrease in the consumption of penicillins [Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) code J01C] (-1.9 DID; -23.0%), other ß-lactam antibacterials (J01D) (-0.6 DID; -25.8%) and macrolides, lincosamides and streptogramins (J01F) (-0.5 DID; -17.4%) and was sustained during 2021. The changepoint analysis of yearly data (28 countries) estimated a decrease of 3.3 DID in overall antibiotic consumption (J01) between 2019 and 2020. The analysis of quarterly data (16 countries) estimated a decrease in overall antibiotic consumption (J01) of 4.0 DID and a decrease in seasonal variation of 1.2 DID between the first and second quarters of 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The changepoint analysis indicated a significant, sudden and steep decrease in community antibiotic consumption in the EU/EEA immediately after the start of the COVID-19 outbreak in Europe, as well as a decrease in its seasonal variation.

Added value of patient- and drug-related factors to stratify drug-drug interaction alerts for risk of QT prolongation: Development and validation of a risk prediction model.

AIMS: Many clinical decision support systems trigger warning alerts for drug-drug interactions potentially leading to QT prolongation and torsades de pointes (QT-DDIs). Unfortunately, there is overalerting and underalerting because stratification is only based on a fixed QT-DDI severity level. We aimed to improve QT-DDI alerting by developing and validating a risk prediction model considering patient- and drug-related factors. METHODS: We fitted 31 predictor candidates to a stepwise linear regression for 1000 bootstrap samples and selected the predictors present in 95% of the 1000 models. A final linear regression model with those variables was fitted on the original development sample (350 QT-DDIs). This model was validated on an external dataset (143 QT-DDIs). Both true QTc and predicted QTc were stratified into three risk levels (low, moderate and high). Stratification of QT-DDIs could be appropriate (predicted risk = true risk), acceptable (one risk level difference) or inappropriate (two risk levels difference). RESULTS: The final model included 11 predictors with the three most important being use of antiarrhythmics, age and baseline QTc. Comparing current practice to the prediction model, appropriate stratification increased significantly from 37% to 54% appropriate QT-DDIs (increase of 17.5% on average [95% CI +5.4% to +29.6%], padj = 0.006) and inappropriate stratification decreased significantly from 13% to 1% inappropriate QT-DDIs (decrease of 11.2% on average [95% CI -17.7% to -4.7%], padj ≤ 0.001). CONCLUSION: The prediction model including patient- and drug-related factors outperformed QT alerting based on QT-DDI severity alone and therefore is a promising strategy to improve DDI alerting.

Contact With Young Children Increases the Risk of Respiratory Infection in Older Adults in Europe-the RESCEU Study.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge about how older adults get a respiratory infection is crucial for planning preventive strategies. We aimed to determine how contact with young children living outside of the household affects the risk of acute respiratory tract infections (ARTI) in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: This study is part of the European RESCEU older adult study. Weekly surveillance was performed to detect ARTI throughout 2 winter seasons (2017-2018, 2018-2019). Child exposure, defined as having regular contact with children under 5 living outside of the subject's household, was assessed at baseline. The average attributable fraction was calculated to determine the fraction of ARTI explained by exposure to these children. RESULTS: We prospectively established that 597/1006 (59%) participants experienced at least 1 ARTI. Child exposure increased the risk of all-cause ARTI (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21 -2.08; P = .001). This risk was highest in those with the most frequent contact (aOR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.23-2.63; P = .003). The average attributable fraction of child exposure explaining ARTI was 10% (95% CI, 5%-15%). CONCLUSIONS: One of 10 ARTI in community-dwelling older adults is attributable to exposure to preschool children living outside of the household. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03621930.

World Health Organization Influenza-Like Illness Underestimates the Burden of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Community-Dwelling Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) surveillance is heavily dependent on the influenza-like illness (ILI) case definition from the World Health Organization (WHO). Because ILI includes fever in its syndromic case definition, its ability to accurately identify acute respiratory tract infections (ARTI) caused by RSV in older adults is uncertain. METHODS: The accuracy of the WHO ILI and a modified ILI (requiring only self-reported fever) case definitions in identifying patients with PCR-confirmed RSV-ARTI was evaluated in community-dwelling older adults (≥60 years) from the prospective European RESCEU cohort study. RESULTS: Among 1040 participants, 750 ARTI episodes were analyzed including 36 confirmed RSV-ARTI. Due to a general lack of fever, sensitivity for RSV-ARTI was 33% for modified ILI and 11% for ILI. The area under the curve for both ILI definitions was 0.52 indicating poor discrimination for RSV. RSV-ARTI could not be distinguished from all other ARTI based on clinical symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: The use of ILI underestimated the occurrence of RSV-ARTI in community-dwelling older adults up to 9-fold (11% sensitivity). Because worldwide RSV surveillance depends largely on ILI, there is an urgent need for a better approach to measure the occurrence of RSV disease and the impact of future RSV vaccine introduction. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT03621930.

Economic Burden and Health-Related Quality of Life of Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Influenza Infection in European Community-Dwelling Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza virus infections result in a considerable mortality and morbidity among the aging population globally. Influenza vaccination for older adults before the seasonal influenza epidemic has been evaluated to be cost-effective in many countries. Interventions against RSV in older adults are in the pipeline, and evaluating their cost-effectiveness is crucial for decision making. To inform such evaluations, our aim was to estimate average costs and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in older adults with RSV and influenza infection. METHODS: The European RESCEU observational cohort study followed 1040 relatively healthy community-dwelling older adults aged 60 years and older during 2 consecutive winter seasons. Health care resource use and HRQoL were collected and analyzed during RSV episodes, and also during influenza episodes. Country-specific unit cost data were mainly obtained from national databases. Direct costs were estimated from a patient, health care provider, and health care payers' perspective, whereas indirect costs were estimated from a societal perspective. Due to small sample size, no formal statistical comparisons were made. RESULTS: Thirty-six RSV and 60 influenza episodes were reported, including 1 hospitalization. Means (median; first-third quartile) of €26.4 (€5.5; 0-47.3) direct and €4.4 (€0; 0-0) indirect costs were reported per nonhospitalized RSV episode, and €42.5 (€36; 3.3-66.7) direct and €32.1 (€0; 0-0) indirect costs per nonhospitalized influenza episode. For RSV episodes, the utility value decreased from 0.896 (0.928; 0.854-0.953) to 0.801 (0.854; 0.712-0.937) from preseason to 1 week after symptom onset; for influenza, the change was from 0.872 (0.895; 0.828-0.953) to 0.664 (0.686; 0.574-0.797). CONCLUSIONS: The average costs and HRQoL estimates of older adults treated outside the hospital can be used to inform the design of future studies and the decision making regarding interventions to prevent RSV infection in older adults. Larger studies are needed to provide better country-specific and complementary cost estimates and to allow for formal statistical comparison of costs between RSV and influenza. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03621930.

Performance Assessment of a Rapid Molecular Respiratory Syncytial Virus Point-of-Care Test: A Prospective Community Study in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a substantial burden in older adults. Viral load in RSV-infected adults is generally lower compared to young children, which could result in suboptimal sensitivity of RSV diagnostics. Although the Xpert® Xpress Flu/RSV assay has been used in routine clinical care, its sensitivity to diagnose RSV infection in older adults is largely unknown. We aimed to compare the performance of the Xpert® Xpress Flu/RSV assay with real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in home-dwelling older adults (≥60 years of age). METHODS: Nasopharyngeal swabs were tested with Xpert® Xpress Flu/RSV and compared to RSV RT-PCR in older adults with acute respiratory tract infections with different levels of disease severity. RESULTS: We studied 758 respiratory samples from 561 older adults from 2 consecutive RSV seasons. Thirty-five (4.6%) samples tested positive for RSV by at least 1 of the assays, of which 2 samples were negative by Xpert® Xpress Flu/RSV and 3 samples by real-time RT-PCR. The positive percentage agreement (PPA) was 90.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 76.4%-96.8%) and negative percentage agreement was 99.7% (95% CI, 99.0%-99.9%). Viral loads were low (≤103 copies/mL or cycle threshold value ≥34) in all cases with discordant results for the 2 assays. CONCLUSIONS: The PPA of Xpert® Xpress Flu/RSV compared to routine RT-PCR is high for RSV detection in home-dwelling older adults. The assay is fast and easy to use at the point of care. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03621930.

Antibiotics for lower respiratory tract infection in children presenting in primary care in England (ARTIC PC): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic resistance is a global public health threat. Antibiotics are very commonly prescribed for children presenting with uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs), but there is little evidence from randomised controlled trials of the effectiveness of antibiotics, both overall or among key clinical subgroups. In ARTIC PC, we assessed whether amoxicillin reduces the duration of moderately bad symptoms in children presenting with uncomplicated (non-pneumonic) LRTI in primary care, overall and in key clinical subgroups. METHODS: ARTIC PC was a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial done at 56 general practices in England. Eligible children were those aged 6 months to 12 years presenting in primary care with acute uncomplicated LRTI judged to be infective in origin, where pneumonia was not suspected clinically, with symptoms for less than 21 days. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive amoxicillin 50 mg/kg per day or placebo oral suspension, in three divided doses orally for 7 days. Patients and investigators were masked to treatment assignment. The primary outcome was the duration of symptoms rated moderately bad or worse (measured using a validated diary) for up to 28 days or until symptoms resolved. The primary outcome and safety were assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN79914298). FINDINGS: Between Nov 9, 2016, and March 17, 2020, 432 children (not including six who withdrew permission for use of their data after randomisation) were randomly assigned to the antibiotics group (n=221) or the placebo group (n=211). Complete data for symptom duration were available for 317 (73%) patients; missing data were imputed for the primary analysis. Median durations of moderately bad or worse symptoms were similar between the groups (5 days [IQR 4-11] in the antibiotics group vs 6 days [4-15] in the placebo group; hazard ratio [HR] 1·13 [95% CI 0·90-1·42]). No differences were seen for the primary outcome between the treatment groups in the five prespecified clinical subgroups (patients with chest signs, fever, physician rating of unwell, sputum or chest rattle, and short of breath). Estimates from complete-case analysis and a per-protocol analysis were similar to the imputed data analysis. INTERPRETATION: Amoxicillin for uncomplicated chest infections in children is unlikely to be clinically effective either overall or for key subgroups in whom antibiotics are commonly prescribed. Unless pneumonia is suspected, clinicians should provide safety-netting advice but not prescribe antibiotics for most children presenting with chest infections. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

Impact of Adding Oseltamivir to Usual Care on Quality-Adjusted Life-Years During Influenza-Like Illness.

OBJECTIVES: The ALIC4E trial has shown that oseltamivir reduces recovery time while increasing the risk of nausea. This secondary analysis of the ALIC4E trial aimed to determine the gain in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with adding oseltamivir to usual primary care in patients presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI). METHODS: Patients with ILI were recruited during the influenza season (2015-2018) in 15 European countries. Patients were assigned to usual care with or without oseltamivir through stratified randomization (age, severity, comorbidities, and symptom onset). Patients' health status was valued with the EQ-5D and visual analog scale (VAS) for up to 28 days. Average EQ-5D and VAS scores over time were estimated for both treatment groups using one-inflated beta regression in children (<13 years old) and adults (≥13 years old). QALY gain was calculated as the difference between the groups. Sensitivity analysis considered the value set to convert EQ-5D answers to summary scores and the follow-up period. RESULTS: In adults, oseltamivir gained 0.0006 (95% confidence interval 0.0002-0.0010) QALYs, whereas no statistically significant gain was found in children (14-day follow-up, EQ-5D). QALY gains were statistically significant in patients aged ≥65 years, patients without relevant comorbidities, or patients experiencing symptoms for ≤48 hours. Using VAS and accounting for 28-day follow-up resulted in higher QALY gain. CONCLUSIONS: QALY gain owing to oseltamivir is limited compared with other diseases, and its clinical meaningfulness remains to be determined. Further analysis is needed to evaluate whether QALY gain and its impact on ILI treatment cost render oseltamivir cost-effective.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within households: a remote prospective cohort study in European countries.

Household transmission studies are useful to quantify SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics. We conducted a remote prospective household study to quantify transmission, and the effects of subject characteristics, household characteristics, and implemented infection control measures on transmission. Households with a laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 index case were enrolled < 48 h following test result. Follow-up included digitally daily symptom recording, regular nose-throat self-sampling and paired dried blood spots from all household members. Samples were tested for virus detection and SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Secondary attack rates (SARs) and associated factors were estimated using logistic regression. In 276 households with 920 participants (276 index cases and 644 household members) daily symptom diaries and questionnaires were completed by 95%, and > 85% completed sample collection. 200 secondary SARS-CoV-2 infections were detected, yielding a household SAR of 45.7% (95% CI 39.7-51.7%) and per-person SAR of 32.6% (95%CI: 28.1-37.4%). 126 (63%) secondary cases were detected at enrollment. Mild (aRR = 0.57) and asymptomatic index cases (aRR = 0.29) were less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2, compared to index cases with an acute respiratory illness (p = 0.03 for trend), and child index cases (< 12 years aRR = 0.60 and 12-18 years aRR = 0.85) compared to adults (p = 0.03 for trend). Infection control interventions in households had no significant effect on transmission. We found high SARs with the majority of transmissions occuring early after SARS-CoV-2 introduction into the household. This may explain the futile effect of implemented household measures. Age and symptom status of the index case influence secondary transmission. Remote, digitally-supported study designs with self-sampling are feasible for studying transmission under pandemic restrictions.

Prospective SARS-CoV-2 cohort study among primary health care providers during the second COVID-19 wave in Flanders, Belgium.

BACKGROUND: Primary health care providers (PHCPs) are assumed to be at high risk of a COVID-19 infection, as they are exposed to patients with usually less personal protective equipment (PPE) than other frontline health care workers (HCWs). Nevertheless, current research efforts focussed on the assessment of COVID-19 seroprevalence rates in the general population or hospital HCWs. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the seroprevalence in PHCPs during the second SARS-CoV-2 wave in Flanders (Belgium) and compared it to the seroprevalence in the general population. We also assessed risk factors, availability of PPE and attitudes towards the government guidelines over time. METHODS: A prospective cohort of PHCPs (n = 698), mainly general practitioners, was asked to complete a questionnaire and self-sample capillary blood by finger-pricking at five distinct points in time (June-December 2020). We analysed the dried blood spots for IgG antibodies using a Luminex multiplex immunoassay. RESULTS: The seroprevalence of PHCPs remained stable between June and September (4.6-5.0%), increased significantly from October to December (8.1-13.4%) and was significantly higher than the seroprevalence of the general population. The majority of PHCPs were concerned about becoming infected, had adequate PPE and showed increasing confidence in government guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: The marked increase in seroprevalence during the second COVID-19 wave shows that PHCPs were more at risk during the second wave compared to the first wave in Flanders. This increase was only slightly higher in PHCPs than in the general population suggesting that the occupational health measures implemented provided sufficient protection when managing patients.

Clinical prediction of laboratory-confirmed influenza in adults with influenza-like illness in primary care. A randomized controlled trial secondary analysis in 15 European countries.

BACKGROUND: Clinical findings do not accurately predict laboratory diagnosis of influenza. Early identification of influenza is considered useful for proper management decisions in primary care. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the diagnostic value of the presence and the severity of symptoms for the diagnosis of laboratory-confirmed influenza infection among adults presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI) in primary care. METHODS: Secondary analysis of patients with ILI who participated in a clinical trial from 2015 to 2018 in 15 European countries. Patients rated signs and symptoms as absent, minor, moderate, or major problem. A nasopharyngeal swab was taken for microbiological identification of influenza and other microorganisms. Models were generated considering (i) the presence of individual symptoms and (ii) the severity rating of symptoms. RESULTS: A total of 2,639 patients aged 18 or older were included in the analysis. The mean age was 41.8 ± 14.7 years, and 1,099 were men (42.1%). Influenza was microbiologically confirmed in 1,337 patients (51.1%). The area under the curve (AUC) of the model for the presence of any of seven symptoms for detecting influenza was 0.66 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.65-0.68), whereas the AUC of the symptom severity model, which included eight variables-cough, fever, muscle aches, sweating and/or chills, moderate to severe overall disease, age, abdominal pain, and sore throat-was 0.70 (95% CI: 0.69-0.72). CONCLUSION: Clinical prediction of microbiologically confirmed influenza in adults with ILI is slightly more accurate when based on patient reported symptom severity than when based on the presence or absence of symptoms.

Influenza is usually diagnosed clinically. However, the accuracy of a diagnosis of influenza based on clinical features is limited because symptoms overlap considerably with those caused by other microorganisms. This study examined whether identification of the severity rather than the presence of key signs and symptoms could aid in the diagnosis of influenza, thereby helping clinicians to determine when antiviral agent use is appropriate. The authors used the database of a previous randomized clinical trial on the effectiveness of an antiviral carried out in primary care centers in 15 countries in Europe during three epidemic periods from 2015/2016 to 2017/2018. Participants with influenza symptoms were included and they were asked about the presence and severity of different symptoms during the baseline visit with their doctors and a nasopharyngeal swab was taken for microbiological analysis. Overall, only 51% of the patients aged 18 or older had a confirmed influenza infection. Clinical findings are not particularly useful for confirming or excluding the diagnosis of influenza. However, the results of our study recommend considering how intense the different symptoms are, since key symptoms rated as moderate or severe are slightly better for predicting flu rather than the presence or absence of these symptoms.

Predicting mortality in intensive care unit patients infected with Klebsiella pneumoniae: A retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Although several models to predict intensive care unit (ICU) mortality are available, their performance decreases in certain subpopulations because specific factors are not included. Moreover, these models often involve complex techniques and are not applicable in low-resource settings. We developed a prediction model and simplified risk score to predict 14-day mortality in ICU patients infected with Klebsiella pneumoniae. METHODOLOGY: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data of ICU patients infected with Klebsiella pneumoniae at the largest tertiary hospital in Northern Vietnam during 2016-2018. Logistic regression was used to develop our prediction model. Model performance was assessed by calibration (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve-AUC) and discrimination (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test). A simplified risk score was also constructed. RESULTS: Two hundred forty-nine patients were included, with an overall 14-day mortality of 28.9%. The final prediction model comprised six predictors: age, referral route, SOFA score, central venous catheter, intracerebral haemorrhage surgery and absence of adjunctive therapy. The model showed high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.83; p-value Hosmer-Lemeshow test = 0.92). The risk score has a range of 0-12 corresponding to mortality risk 0-100%, which produced similar predictive performance as the original model. CONCLUSIONS: The developed prediction model and risk score provide an objective quantitative estimation of individual 14-day mortality in ICU patients infected with Klebsiella pneumoniae. The tool is highly applicable in practice to help facilitate patient stratification and management, evaluation of further interventions and allocation of resources and care, especially in low-resource settings where electronic systems to support complex models are missing.

Does peer teaching improve academic results and competencies during medical school? A mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: This study investigates the impact of Peer-Assisted Learning (PAL) in clinical skills on peer teachers' academic scores and competencies; however, controversy remains on this topic, and concrete evidence on its impact lacking. METHODS: We performed a mixed methods study combining a retrospective cohort study with a modified Delphi survey. Peer teachers and Skills Lab faculty members participated in this study. A validated questionnaire, the CanMEDS Competency Based Inventory (CCBI), and group interviews were used to assess the outcomes of PAL. Our results were also triangulated with literature data. RESULTS: In 3 consecutive cohorts of medical students (n = 311), 78 participated in PAL. Peer teachers obtained higher scores from the start of the study, at different timepoints in medical school, and on their final scores compared to all other students. Interestingly their progress followed the same path and magnitude as other well-performing students. However, based on our findings from a modified Delphi survey (CCBI interviews) and a literature review, we found further supporting evidence for a positive impact of PAL on the competencies of physical skills (medical expert), teamwork and leadership (collaborator), lifelong learning (scholar), and for admitting uncertainty/limits (professional) within the CanMEDS roles. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that higher achieving students are more likely to volunteer for a peer tutoring program; however this does not significantly augment their academic scores as compared to above well-performing non-teaching fellow students. Importantly, our modified Delphi survey indicated which CanMEDS roles were positively impacted by PAL: medical expert, collaborator, scholar and professional.

Helicobacter pylori resistance to antibiotics in Europe in 2018 and its relationship to antibiotic consumption in the community.

OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to prospectively assess the antibiotic resistance rates in Helicobacter pylori strains in Europe in 2018 and to study the link between antibiotic consumption in the community and H. pylori resistance levels in the different countries. DESIGN: The proportion of primary antibiotic resistance cases of H. pylori and their corresponding risk factors were investigated in 24 centres from 18 European countries according to a standardised protocol. Data on antibiotic consumption in the community were collected for the period 2008-2017. The link between antibiotic consumption and resistance data was assessed using generalised linear mixed models. The model with the best fit was selected by means of the Akaike Information Criterion. RESULTS: H. pylori resistance rates for the 1211 adult patients included were 21.4% for clarithromycin, 15.8% for levofloxacin and 38.9% for metronidazole and were significantly higher in Central/Western and Southern than in the Northern European countries.The best model fit was obtained for the Poisson distribution using 2013 consumption data. A significant association was found between H. pylori clarithromycin resistance and consumption in the community of macrolides (p=0.0003) and intermediate-acting macrolides (p=0.005), and between levofloxacin resistance and consumption of quinolones (p=0.0002) and second-generation quinolones (p=0.0003). CONCLUSION: This study confirms the positive correlation between macrolide and quinolone consumption in the community and corresponding H. pylori resistance in European countries. Hence, H. pylori treatment with clarithromycin and levofloxacin should not be started without susceptibility testing in most European countries.

Oseltamivir plus usual care versus usual care for influenza-like illness in primary care: an open-label, pragmatic, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Antivirals are infrequently prescribed in European primary care for influenza-like illness, mostly because of perceived ineffectiveness in real world primary care and because individuals who will especially benefit have not been identified in independent trials. We aimed to determine whether adding antiviral treatment to usual primary care for patients with influenza-like illness reduces time to recovery overall and in key subgroups. METHODS: We did an open-label, pragmatic, adaptive, randomised controlled trial of adding oseltamivir to usual care in patients aged 1 year and older presenting with influenza-like illness in primary care. The primary endpoint was time to recovery, defined as return to usual activities, with fever, headache, and muscle ache minor or absent. The trial was designed and powered to assess oseltamivir benefit overall and in 36 prespecified subgroups defined by age, comorbidity, previous symptom duration, and symptom severity, using a Bayesian piece-wise exponential primary analysis model. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, number ISRCTN 27908921. FINDINGS: Between Jan 15, 2016, and April 12, 2018, we recruited 3266 participants in 15 European countries during three seasonal influenza seasons, allocated 1629 to usual care plus oseltamivir and 1637 to usual care, and ascertained the primary outcome in 1533 (94%) and 1526 (93%). 1590 (52%) of 3059 participants had PCR-confirmed influenza infection. Time to recovery was shorter in participants randomly assigned to oseltamivir (hazard ratio 1·29, 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCrI] 1·20-1·39) overall and in 30 of the 36 prespecified subgroups, with estimated hazard ratios ranging from 1·13 to 1·72. The estimated absolute mean benefit from oseltamivir was 1·02 days (95% [BCrI] 0·74-1·31) overall, and in the prespecified subgroups, ranged from 0·70 (95% BCrI 0·30-1·20) in patients younger than 12 years, with less severe symptoms, no comorbidities, and shorter previous illness duration to 3·20 (95% BCrI 1·00-5·50) in patients aged 65 years or older who had more severe illness, comorbidities, and longer previous illness duration. Regarding harms, an increased burden of vomiting or nausea was observed in the oseltamivir group. INTERPRETATION: Primary care patients with influenza-like illness treated with oseltamivir recovered one day sooner on average than those managed by usual care alone. Older, sicker patients with comorbidities and longer previous symptom duration recovered 2-3 days sooner. FUNDING: European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme.

Burden of respiratory syncytial virus infection in community-dwelling older adults in Europe (RESCEU): an international prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in older adults is recognised as an important health issue. We aimed to assess the community burden of RSV in Europe in older adults aged ≥60 years. METHODS: This international, prospective, observational cohort study is part of work by the REspiratory Syncytial virus Consortium in EUrope (RESCEU). Participants were recruited through general practitioners' (GPs) offices before two independent RSV seasons. Participants reported weekly about symptoms of acute respiratory tract infection (ARTI) during one RSV season. ARTI patients were tested for RSV during home visits and completed a daily symptom diary. RSV illness included PCR-confirmed ARTI and those showing seroconversion over the season. RSV ARTI was based on PCR alone (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03621930). RESULTS: We recruited 1040 participants (527 in season 2017-2018 and 513 in season 2018-2019) with a median age of 75 years (range 60-100 years). Of these, 1023 (99%) lived independently at home at baseline. RSV illness incidence was 22 out of 527 (4.2%) and 37 out of 513 (7.2%) in the respective seasons. RSV illness did not affect frailty or cardiopulmonary status during the course of the study. No patients were hospitalised or died from RSV illness. In the 36 patients with PCR confirmed RSV ARTI, symptom duration averaged 19 days, while a doctor's visit took place in 11 out of 36 cases (31%). RSV ARTI could not be differentiated clinically from all other ARTIs based on symptoms. CONCLUSION: This European study showed that RSV is prevalent in community-dwelling older adults and rarely causes severe disease. This suggests that watchful waiting, using a continuity of care approach to identify those who do need more intensive care, is often justified when RSV is suspected in family practice.

Impact of changing reimbursement criteria on the use of fluoroquinolones in Belgium.

OBJECTIVES: The criteria for the reimbursement of fluoroquinolones changed in Belgium on 1 May 2018. This study aims to quantify the difference in fluoroquinolone use after this change, and to assess the timing and persistence of this effect, both in terms of total reimbursed fluoroquinolone use and its relative proportion. METHODS: Longitudinal reimbursement data on fluoroquinolone use in the Belgian community from January 2017 to November 2018 were analysed to identify a change in reimbursed fluoroquinolone use expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day (DID), using a set of non-linear mixed models including change-points. In addition, longitudinal data on the relative proportion of prescribed fluoroquinolones from January 2017 to December 2018 were analysed to identify a change in the relative proportion of prescribed fluoroquinolones using generalized estimation equations including change-points. RESULTS: Fluoroquinolone use dropped significantly immediately after the change in reimbursement criteria, from 2.21 DID (95% CI: 2.03-2.38) to 0.52 DID (95% CI: 0.48-0.56) and from 9.14% (95% CI: 8.75%-9.56%) to 6.52% (95% CI: 6.04%-7.04%). The observed decrease in fluoroquinolone use persisted over time. CONCLUSIONS: While fluoroquinolone use was still above the target of 5% after the change in reimbursement criteria, its implementation helped to lower fluoroquinolone use in Belgium.

Consumption of antibiotics in the community, European Union/European Economic Area, 1997-2017: data collection, management and analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This article introduces a series of articles on antibiotic consumption in the community between 1997 and 2017, which provide an update of previous articles covering the periods 1997-2003 and 1997-2009. METHODS: In this article, differences in participating countries, the ATC/DDD classification system, and data collection, validation and analysis between the current and previous series are described. RESULTS: In the previous series, 33 European countries provided valid data for further analysis, while the current series focused on 30 countries belonging to the EU or the European Economic Area (EEA). For both series, data were collected in accordance with the WHO ATC classification system. While the previous series reported data in accordance with the ATC/DDD index 2011, the current series employed the ATC/DDD index 2019. Both series focused on consumption of antibacterials for systemic use (ATC J01) and collected data expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day and packages per 1000 inhabitants per day. When studying consumption expressed in packages per 1000 inhabitants per day, countries reporting total care data, i.e. community and hospital sector combined, were included in the previous series but excluded in the current series. While the previous series used non-linear mixed models to evaluate time trends in antibiotic consumption, the current series allowed for inclusion of change-points with a data-driven location. In addition, both series assessed the composition and quality of antibiotic consumption in the EU/EEA. CONCLUSIONS: The updated analyses of two decades of ESAC-Net data provide the most comprehensive and detailed description of antibiotic consumption in the community in Europe.

Consumption of quinolones in the community, European Union/European Economic Area, 1997-2017.

OBJECTIVES: Data on quinolone consumption in the community were collected from 30 EU/European Economic Area (EEA) countries over two decades. This article reviews temporal trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and changes in the composition of main subgroups of quinolones. METHODS: For the period 1997-2017, data on consumption of quinolones, i.e. ATC group J01M, in the community and aggregated at the level of the active substance, were collected using the WHO ATC/DDD methodology (ATC/DDD index 2019). Consumption was expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day and in packages per 1000 inhabitants per day. Quinolone consumption was analysed by subgroups based on pharmacokinetic profile, and presented as trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and compositional changes. RESULTS: In 2017, quinolone consumption in the community expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day varied by a factor of 8.2 between countries with the highest (Bulgaria) and the lowest (Norway) consumption. The second-generation quinolones accounted for >50% of quinolone consumption in most countries. Quinolone consumption significantly increased up to 2001, and did not change significantly afterwards. Seasonal variation increased significantly over time. Proportional consumption of third-generation quinolones significantly increased over time relative to that of second-generation quinolones, while proportional consumption of both third- and second-generation quinolones significantly increased relative to that of first-generation quinolones. Levofloxacin and moxifloxacin represented >40% of quinolone consumption in the community in southern EU/EEA countries. CONCLUSIONS: Quinolone consumption in the community is no longer increasing in the EU/EEA, but its seasonal variation continues to increase significantly as is the proportion of quinolones to treat respiratory infections.

Consumption of macrolides, lincosamides and streptogramins in the community, European Union/European Economic Area, 1997-2017.

OBJECTIVES: Data on the consumption of macrolides, lincosamides and streptogramins (MLS) in the community were collected from 30 EU/European Economic Area (EEA) countries over two decades. This article reviews temporal trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and changes in composition of the main subgroups of MLS. METHODS: For the period 1997-2017, data on consumption of MLS, i.e. ATC group J01F, in the community and aggregated at the level of the active substance, were collected using the WHO ATC/DDD methodology (ATC/DDD index 2019). Consumption was expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day and in packages per 1000 inhabitants per day. Consumption of MLS was analysed and presented as trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and compositional changes, using a classification based on mean plasma elimination half-life for macrolides. RESULTS: In 2017, consumption of MLS in the community expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day varied by a factor of 13 between countries with the highest (Greece) and the lowest (Sweden) consumption. Consumption of MLS did not change significantly up to 2003, after which it significantly increased up to 2007. No significant change was observed after 2007. Consumption of MLS showed high seasonal variation. The proportional consumption of long-acting macrolides significantly increased over time compared with that of intermediate-acting macrolides, and proportional consumption of the latter increased compared with that of short-acting macrolides. CONCLUSIONS: Consumption of MLS did not change significantly over time during 2007-2017, while the proportional consumption of long-acting macrolides increased. Seasonal variation remained high, which suggests that MLS are still prescribed inappropriately in many countries.