Surveillance and characterisation of influenza viruses among patients with influenza-like illness in Bali, Indonesia, July 2010-June 2014.

BACKGROUND: Although Indonesia has high fatality rate of human A/H5N1 cases, epidemiological and clinical data on influenza virus circulation among humans has been limited. Within Indonesia, Bali province is of interest due to high population densities of humans, pigs and poultry. This study aims to characterize and compare the epidemiological and clinical patterns of influenza viruses in humans through surveillance among patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) in Bali, Indonesia. METHODS: ILI patients were recruited at 21 sentinel health facilities across all nine regencies in Bali, from July 2010 to June 2014. PCR-based assays were used for detection and subtyping of influenza viruses. Demographic, behavioural and clinical data were tested for associations with influenza using chi-squared tests and logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 2077 ILI patients, 291 (14.0%) tested positive for influenza A, 152 (7.3%) for influenza B, and 16 (0.77%) for both influenza A and B. Of the influenza A isolates, the majority 61.2% were A/H3N2, followed by A/H1N1-pdm09 (80; 26.1%). Two A/H5N1 were identified. Influenza positive rates were significantly higher during wet season months (28.3%), compared with the dry season (13.8%; χ2 = 61.1; df = 1; p < 0.0001). Clinical predictors for infection varied by virus type, with measured fever (≥38 °C) more strongly associated with influenza B (AOR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.10, 2.39). CONCLUSION: Influenza circulates year-round among humans in Bali with higher activity during the wet season. High contact rates with poultry and pigs, along with influenza virus detection that could not be subtyped through conventional assays, highlight the need for molecular studies to characterize epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza in this setting.

Sharing public health data and information across borders: lessons from Southeast Asia.

BACKGROUND: The importance of data and information sharing for the prevention and control of infectious diseases has long been recognised. In recent years, public health emergencies such as avian influenza, drug-resistant malaria, and Ebola have brought renewed attention to the need for effective communication channels between health authorities, particularly in regional contexts where neighbouring countries share common health threats. However, little empirical research has been conducted to date to explore the range of factors that may affect the transfer, exchange, and use of public health data and expertise across borders, especially in developing contexts. METHODS: To explore these issues, 60 interviews were conducted with domestic and international stakeholders in Cambodia and Vietnam, selected amongst those who were involved in regional public health programmes and networks. Data analysis was structured around three categories mapped across the dataset: (1) the nature of shared data and information; (2) the nature of communication channels; and (3) how information flow may be affected by the local, regional, and global system of rules and arrangements. RESULTS: There has been a great intensification in the circulation of data, information, and expertise across borders in Southeast Asia. However, findings from this study document ways in which the movement of data and information from production sites to other places can be challenging due to different standards and practices, language barriers, different national structures and rules that govern the circulation of health information inside and outside countries, imbalances in capacities and power, and sustainability of financing arrangements. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the complex socio-technical nature of data and information sharing, suggesting that best practices require significant involvement of an independent third-party brokering organisation or office, which can redress imbalances between country partners at different levels in the data sharing process, create meaningful communication channels and make the most of shared information and data sets.

Designing evaluation studies to optimally inform policy: what factors do policy-makers in China consider when making resource allocation decisions on healthcare worker training programmes?

BACKGROUND: In light of the gap in evidence to inform future resource allocation decisions about healthcare provider (HCP) training in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and the considerable donor investments being made towards training interventions, evaluation studies that are optimally designed to inform local policy-makers are needed. The aim of our study is to understand what features of HCP training evaluation studies are important for decision-making by policy-makers in LMICs. We investigate the extent to which evaluations based on the widely used Kirkpatrick model - focusing on direct outcomes of training, namely reaction of trainees, learning, behaviour change and improvements in programmatic health indicators - align with policy-makers' evidence needs for resource allocation decisions. We use China as a case study where resource allocation decisions about potential scale-up (using domestic funding) are being made about an externally funded pilot HCP training programme. METHODS: Qualitative data were collected from high-level officials involved in resource allocation at the national and provincial level in China through ten face-to-face, in-depth interviews and two focus group discussions consisting of ten participants each. Data were analysed manually using an interpretive thematic analysis approach. RESULTS: Our study indicates that Chinese officials not only consider information about the direct outcomes of a training programme, as captured in the Kirkpatrick model, but also need information on the resources required to implement the training, the wider or indirect impacts of training, and the sustainability and scalability to other settings within the country. In addition to considering findings presented in evaluation studies, we found that Chinese policy-makers pay close attention to whether the evaluations were robust and to the composition of the evaluation team. CONCLUSIONS: Our qualitative study indicates that training programme evaluations that focus narrowly on direct training outcomes may not provide sufficient information for policy-makers to make decisions on future training programmes. Based on our findings, we have developed an evidence-based framework, which incorporates but expands beyond the Kirkpatrick model, to provide conceptual and practical guidance that aids in the design of training programme evaluations better suited to meet the information needs of policy-makers and to inform policy decisions.

Tuberculosis active case finding in Cambodia: a pragmatic, cost-effectiveness comparison of three implementation models.

BACKGROUND: Globally, almost 40% of tuberculosis (TB) patients remain undiagnosed, and those that are diagnosed often experience prolonged delays before initiating correct treatment, leading to ongoing transmission. While there is a push for active case finding (ACF) to improve early detection and treatment of TB, there is extremely limited evidence about the relative cost-effectiveness of different ACF implementation models. Cambodia presents a unique opportunity for addressing this gap in evidence as ACF has been implemented using different models, but no comparisons have been conducted. The objective of our study is to contribute to knowledge and methodology on comparing cost-effectiveness of alternative ACF implementation models from the health service perspective, using programmatic data, in order to inform national policy and practice. METHODS: We retrospectively compared three distinct ACF implementation models - door to door symptom screening in urban slums, checking contacts of TB patients, and door to door symptom screening focusing on rural populations aged above 55 - in terms of the number of new bacteriologically-positive pulmonary TB cases diagnosed and the cost of implementation assuming activities are conducted by the national TB program of Cambodia. We calculated the cost per additional case detected using the alternative ACF models. RESULTS: Our analysis, which is the first of its kind for TB, revealed that the ACF model based on door to door screening in poor urban areas of Phnom Penh was the most cost-effective (249 USD per case detected, 737 cases diagnosed), followed by the model based on testing contacts of TB patients (308 USD per case detected, 807 cases diagnosed), and symptomatic screening of older rural populations (316 USD per case detected, 397 cases diagnosed). CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides new evidence on the relative effectiveness and economics of three implementation models for enhanced TB case finding, in line with calls for data from 'routine conditions' to be included in disease control program strategic planning. Such cost-effectiveness comparisons are essential to inform resource allocation decisions of national policy makers in resource constraint settings. We applied a novel, pragmatic methodological approach, which was designed to provide results that are directly relevant to policy makers, costing the interventions from Cambodia's national TB program's perspective and using case finding data from implementation activities, rather than experimental settings.

Comparing patient and healthcare worker experiences during a dengue outbreak in Singapore: understanding the patient journey and the introduction of a point-of-care test (POCT) toward better care delivery.

BACKGROUND: In the aftermath of an upsurge in the number of dengue cases in 2013 and 2014, the SD BIOLINE Dengue Duo rapid diagnostic Point-of-Care Test (POCT) kit was introduced in Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore in June 2013. It is known that the success of POCT usage is contingent on its implementation within the health system. We evaluated health services delivery and the Dengue Duo rapid diagnostic test kit application in Singapore from healthcare workers' perspectives and patient experiences of dengue at surge times. METHODS: Focus group discussions were conducted with dengue patients, from before and after the POCT implementation period. In-depth interviews with semi-structured components with healthcare workers were carried out. A patient centred process mapping technique was used for evaluation, which mapped the patient's journey and was mirrored from the healthcare worker's perspective. RESULTS: Patients and healthcare workers confirmed a wide range of symptoms in adults, making it challenging to determine diagnosis. There were multiple routes to help seeking, and no 'typical patient journey', with patients either presenting directly to the hospital emergency department, or being referred there by a primary care provider. Patients groups diagnosed before and after POCT implementation expressed some differences between speed of diagnoses and attitudes of doctors, yet shared negative feelings about waiting times and a lack of communication and poor information delivery. However, the POCT did not in its current implementation do much to help waiting times. Healthcare workers expressed that public perceptions of dengue in recent years was a major factor in changing patient management, and that the POCT kit was helpful in improving the speed and accuracy of diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: Health service delivery for dengue patients in Singapore was overall perceived to be of an acceptable clinical standard, which was enhanced by the introduction of the POCT. However, improvements can be focused on Adapting to outbreaks by reducing and rendering Waiting experiences more comfortable; Advancing education about symptom recognition, while also Recognising better communication strategies; and Expanding follow-up care options. This is presented as the Dengue AWARE model of care delivery.

Mapping infectious disease hospital surge threats to lessons learnt in Singapore: a systems analysis and development of a framework to inform how to DECIDE on planning and response strategies.

BACKGROUND: Hospital usage and service demand during an Infectious Disease (ID) outbreak can tax the health system in different ways. Herein we conceptualize hospital surge elements, and lessons learnt from such events, to help build appropriately matched responses to future ID surge threats. METHODS: We used the Interpretive Descriptive qualitative approach. Interviews (n = 35) were conducted with governance and public health specialists; hospital based staff; and General Practitioners. Key policy literature in tandem with the interview data were used to iteratively generate a Hospital ID Surge framework. We anchored our narrative account within this framework, which is used to structure our analysis. RESULTS: A spectrum of surge threats from combinations of capacity (for crowding) and capability (for treatment complexity) demands were identified. Starting with the Pyramid scenario, or an influx of high screening rates flooding Emergency Departments, alongside fewer and manageable admissions; the Reverse-Pyramid occurs when few cases are screened and admitted but those that are, are complex; during a 'Black' scenario, the system is overburdened by both crowding and complexity. The Singapore hospital system is highly adapted to crowding, functioning remarkably well at constant near-full capacity in Peacetime and resilient to Endemic surges. We catalogue 26 strategies from lessons learnt relating to staffing, space, supplies and systems, crystalizing institutional memory. The DECIDE model advocates linking these strategies to types of surge threats and offers a step-by-step guide for coordinating outbreak planning and response. CONCLUSIONS: Lack of a shared definition and decision making of surge threats had rendered the procedures somewhat duplicative. This burden was paradoxically exacerbated by a health system that highly prizes planning and forward thinking, but worked largely in silo until an ID crisis hit. Many such lessons can be put into play to further strengthen our current hospital governance and adapted to more diverse settings.

Investments in tuberculosis research - what are the gaps?

Through decades of research, numerous studies have generated robust evidence about effective interventions for tuberculosis control. Yet, the global annual decline in incidence of approximately 1 % is evidence that current approaches and investment strategies are not sufficient. In this article, we assess recent tuberculosis research funding and discuss two critical gaps in funding and in scientific evidence from topics that have been left off the research priority agenda.We first examine research and development funding goals in the 2011-2015 Global Plan to Stop Tuberculosis and analyze disbursements to different research areas by funders worldwide in 2014. We then summarize, through a compilation of published literature and consultation with 35 researchers across multiple disciplines in the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine TB Centre, priorities identified by the tuberculosis research community. Finally, we compare researchers' priority areas to the global funding agendas and activities.Our analysis shows that, among the five key research areas defined in the 2011-2015 Global Plan - namely drugs, basic science, vaccines, diagnostics and operational research - drug discovery and basic science on Mycobacterium tuberculosis accounted for 60 % of the $2 billion annual funding target. None of the research areas received the recommended level of funding. Operational research, which had the lowest target, received 66 % of its target funding, whereas new diagnostics received only 19 %. Although many of the priority research questions identified by researchers fell within the Global Plan categories, our analysis highlights important areas that are not explicitly mentioned in the current plan. These priority research areas included improved understanding of tuberculosis transmission dynamics, the role of social protection and social determinants, and health systems and policy research.While research priorities are increasingly important in light of the limited funding for tuberculosis, there is a risk that we neglect important research areas and encourage the formation of research silos. To ensure that funding priorities, researchers' agendas and national tuberculosis control policies are better coordinated, there should be more, and wider, dialogue between stakeholders in high tuberculosis burden countries, researchers, international policymakers and funders.

Characteristics of acute febrile illness and determinants of illness recovery among adults presenting to Singapore primary care clinics.

BACKGROUND: Undifferentiated acute febrile illness (AFI) is a common presentation among adults in primary care settings in Singapore but large gaps exist in the understanding of the characteristics of these patients. We studied clinical and epidemiological characteristics of AFI patients and factors associated with delayed recovery from AFI. METHODS: We performed a secondary data analysis using data from the Early DENgue infection and outcome (EDEN) study on 2046 adult patients presenting at 5 Singapore polyclinics between December 2007 and February 2013 with a history of fever (≥38 °C) for less than 72 h. We used an accelerated failure time model to investigate factors associated with delayed recovery from AFI. RESULTS: The mean age of patients was 36.6 years, 65 % were male, 51 % were of Chinese ethnicity, and 75 % lived in public housing. Median illness duration was 5 days (interquartile range, 3-7). In multivariable analysis, the unemployed and white collar workers had longer illness duration compared with blue collar workers (time ratio (TR), 1.10; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.03-1.17 and TR, 1.08; 95 % CI, 1.02-1.15, respectively). Patients with more symptoms at initial consultation had slower recovery (TR, 1.03 per additional symptom; 95 % CI, 1.02-1.03). Other clinical factors were also associated with longer duration of illness, including use of analgesics (TR, 1.21; 95 % CI, 1.15-1.28); use of cough medicines (TR, 1.14; 95 % CI, 1.08-1.20); use of antibiotics (TR, 1.14; 95 % CI, 1.07-1.21); and hospitalization (TR, 1.59; 95 % CI, 1.39-1.82). Compared to patients with normal WBC count at first consultation, those with low WBC count had slower recovery (TR, 1.14; 95 % CI, 1.07-1.21), while the reverse was observed among patients with high WBC count (TR, 0.94; 95 % CI, 0.88-1.00). CONCLUSIONS: Differences in illness duration among different types of employment may reflect differences in their underlying general health status. Early identification of factors delaying recovery could help triage management in a primary care setting. In-depth characterization of fever etiology in Singapore will improve surveillance and control activities.

Economic interventions to improve population health: a scoping study of systematic reviews.

BACKGROUND: Recognizing the close relationship between poverty and health, national program managers, policy-makers and donors are increasingly including economic interventions as part of their core strategies to improve population health. However, there is often confusion among stakeholders about the definitions and operational differences between distinct types of economic interventions and financial instruments, which can lead to important differences in interpretation and expectations. METHODS: We conducted a scoping study to define and clarify concepts underlying key economic interventions - price interventions (taxes and subsidies), income transfer programs, incentive programs, livelihood support programs and health-related financial services - and map the evidence currently available from systematic reviews. RESULTS: We identified 195 systematic reviews on economic interventions published between 2005 and July 2015. Overall, there was an increase in the number of reviews published after 2010. The majority of reviews focused on price interventions, income transfer programs and incentive programs, with much less evidence available from systematic reviews on livelihood support programs and health-related financial services. We also identified a lack of evidence on: health outcomes in low income countries; unintended or perverse outcomes; implementation challenges; scalability and cost-effectiveness of economic interventions. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that while more research is clearly needed to assess suitability and effectiveness of economic interventions in different contexts, before interventions are tested and further systematic reviews conducted, a consistent and accurate understanding of the fundamental differences in terminology and approaches is essential among researchers, public health policy makers and program planners.

Mortality attributable to seasonal influenza A and B infections in Thailand, 2005-2009: a longitudinal study.

Influenza epidemiology differs substantially in tropical and temperate zones, but estimates of seasonal influenza mortality in developing countries in the tropics are lacking. We aimed to quantify mortality due to seasonal influenza in Thailand, a tropical middle-income country. Time series of polymerase chain reaction-confirmed influenza infections between 2005 and 2009 were constructed from a sentinel surveillance network. These were combined with influenza-like illness data to derive measures of influenza activity and relationships to mortality by using a Bayesian regression framework. We estimated 6.1 (95% credible interval: 0.5, 12.4) annual deaths per 100,000 population attributable to influenza A and B, predominantly in those aged ≥60 years, with the largest contribution from influenza A(H1N1) in 3 out of 4 years. For A(H3N2), the relationship between influenza activity and mortality varied over time. Influenza was associated with increases in deaths classified as resulting from respiratory disease (posterior probability of positive association, 99.8%), cancer (98.6%), renal disease (98.0%), and liver disease (99.2%). No association with circulatory disease mortality was found. Seasonal influenza infections are associated with substantial mortality in Thailand, but evidence for the strong relationship between influenza activity and circulatory disease mortality reported in temperate countries is lacking.

Pilgrims and MERS-CoV: what's the risk?

The risk of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus spreading globally is worrying, given the annual mass gathering of the Hajj and the year-long influx of pilgrims undertaking the Umrah. Based on the incidence in Saudi Arabia since June 2012, the most likely scenario given recent pilgrim numbers is estimated to be one case per Hajj, and three Umrah pilgrims per year, but which could plausibly reach seven and ten pilgrims respectively. In addition to the 2015 Hajj, national surveillance systems should be on the alert for the low but long-lasting risk of infected pilgrims returning from the Umrah throughout the year.

Factors associated with uptake of influenza vaccine in people aged 50 to 64 years in Hong Kong: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: In Hong Kong, people aged 50-64 years were added as a recommended priority group (recommended group) for influenza vaccination by the Department of Health (DH) starting from 2011/12 onwards. The coverage rate of influenza vaccination for this age group was suboptimal at 8.5 % in 2012/13. This study investigates the factors associated with the uptake of influenza vaccination among adults in Hong Kong aged 50-64 years. METHODS: A case-control study was conducted in communities by street intercept interviews from 17 July to 15 August 2013. Cases were adults aged 50-64 years who had received the influenza vaccine in 2011/12 or 2012/13, while controls were the same as the cases, except they had not received the influenza vaccine in 2011/12 or 2012/13. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed on the data to explore the associations between vaccination status and the variables. RESULTS: Six hundred and four respondents in total were interviewed and included in the analysis. There were 193 cases (vaccinated) and 411 controls (non-vaccinated), with a case-to-control ratio of 1:2.1. The following were strongly associated with vaccination compared to other factors: 'eligible for free government vaccine' (OR6.38, 95 % CI, 3.43-11.87, p < 0.001); 'willing to receive flu vaccination for free' (OR4.84, 95 % CI, 2.13-11.03, p < 0.001); 'perceived having severe or moderate symptoms when contracting flu' (OR2.90, 95 % CI, 1.21-6.97, p = 0.02), and 'convenient to reach a vaccination location' (OR2.87, 95 % CI, 1.06-7.74, p = 0.04). The majority of the cases (80.8 %) and controls (93.9 %) were not aware that they belonged to a recommended group for influenza vaccination and most (>80 %) were willing to be vaccinated if it was free. CONCLUSIONS: Factors related to free and convenient vaccination, the perception of the severity of symptoms when contracting influenza had a comparatively strong association with influenza vaccination uptake amongst 50-64 year olds, compared to other factors.

Introducing One Health to the Ethical Debate About Zoonotic Diseases in Southeast Asia.

Pandemic plans recommend phases of response to an emergent infectious disease (EID) outbreak, and are primarily aimed at preventing and mitigating human-to-human transmission. These plans carry presumptive weight and are increasingly being operationalized at the national, regional and international level with the support of the World Health Organization (WHO). The conventional focus of pandemic preparedness for EIDs of zoonotic origin has been on public health and human welfare. However, this focus on human populations has resulted in strategically important disciplinary silos. As the risks of zoonotic diseases have implications that reach across many domains outside traditional public health, including anthropological, environmental, and veterinary fora, a more inclusive ecological perspective is paramount for an effective response to future outbreaks.

The distribution of incubation and relapse times in experimental human infections with the malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax.

BACKGROUND: The distributions of incubation and relapse periods are key components of infectious disease models for the malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax; however, detailed distributions based upon experimental data are lacking. METHODS: Using a range of historical, experimental mosquito-transmitted human infections, Bayesian estimation with non-informative priors was used to determine parametric distributions that can be readily implemented for the incubation period and time-to-first relapse in P. vivax infections, including global subregions by parasite source. These analyses were complemented with a pooled analysis of observational human infection data with infections that included malaria chemoprophylaxis and long-latencies. The epidemiological impact of these distributional assumptions was explored using stochastic epidemic simulations at a fixed reproductive number while varying the underlying distribution of incubation periods. RESULTS: Using the Deviance Information Criteria to compare parameterizations, experimental incubation periods are most closely modeled with a shifted log-logistic distribution; a log-logistic mixture is the best fit for incubations in observational studies. The mixture Gompertz distribution was the best fit for experimental times-to-relapse among the tested parameterizations, with some variation by geographic subregions. Simulations suggest underlying distributional assumptions have critically important impacts on both the time-scale and total case counts within epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the exponential and gamma distributions commonly used for modeling incubation periods and relapse times inadequately capture the complexity in the distributions of event times in P. vivax malaria infections. In future models, log-logistic and Gompertz distributions should be utilized for general incubation periods and relapse times respectively, and region-specific distributions should be considered to accurately model and predict the epidemiology of this important human pathogen.

Re-assessing the relationship between sporozoite dose and incubation period in Plasmodium vivax malaria: a systematic re-analysis.

Infections with the malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax are noteworthy for potentially very long incubation periods (6-9 months), which present a major barrier to disease elimination. Increased sporozoite challenge has been reported to be associated with both shorter incubation and pre-patent periods in a range of human challenge studies. However, this evidence base has scant empirical foundation, as these historical analyses were limited by available analytic methods, and provides no quantitative estimates of effect size. Following a comprehensive literature search, we re-analysed all identified studies using survival and/or logistic models plus contingency tables. We have found very weak evidence for dose-dependence at entomologically plausible inocula levels. These results strongly suggest that sporozoite dosage is not an important driver of long-latency. Evidence presented suggests that parasite strain and vector species have quantitatively greater impacts, and the potential existence of a dose threshold for human dose-response to sporozoites. Greater consideration of the complex interplay between these aspects of vectors and parasites are important for human challenge experiments, vaccine trials, and epidemiology towards global malaria elimination.

Quantifying effect of geographic location on epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax malaria.

Recent autochthonous transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria in previously malaria-free temperate regions has generated renewed interest in the epidemiology of this disease. Accurate estimates of the incubation period and time to relapse are required for effective malaria surveillance; however, this information is currently lacking. By using historical data from experimental human infections with diverse P. vivax strains, survival analysis models were used to obtain quantitative estimates of the incubation period and time to first relapse for P. vivax malaria in broad geographic regions. Results show that Eurasian strains from temperate regions have longer incubation periods, and Western Hemisphere strains from tropical and temperate regions have longer times to relapse compared with Eastern Hemisphere strains. The diversity in these estimates of key epidemiologic parameters for P. vivax supports the need for elucidating local epidemiology to inform clinical follow-up and to build an evidence base toward global elimination of malaria.

Who should pay for global health, and how much?

Roman Carrasco and colleagues propose a "cap and trade" system for global health involving a cost-effectiveness criterion and a DALY global credit market, mirroring global carbon emission permits trading markets to mitigate climate change.

Health systems' "surge capacity": state of the art and priorities for future research.

CONTEXT: Over the past decade, a number of high-impact natural hazard events, together with the increased recognition of pandemic risks, have intensified interest in health systems' ability to prepare for, and cope with, "surges" (sudden large-scale escalations) in treatment needs. In this article, we identify key concepts and components associated with this emerging research theme. We consider the requirements for a standardized conceptual framework for future research capable of informing policy to reduce the morbidity and mortality impacts of such incidents. Here our objective is to appraise the consistency and utility of existing conceptualizations of health systems' surge capacity and their components, with a view to standardizing concepts and measurements to enable future research to generate a cumulative knowledge base for policy and practice. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature on concepts of health systems' surge capacity, with a narrative summary of key concepts relevant to public health. FINDINGS: The academic literature on surge capacity demonstrates considerable variation in its conceptualization, terms, definitions, and applications. This, together with an absence of detailed and comparable data, has hampered efforts to develop standardized conceptual models, measurements, and metrics. Some degree of consensus is evident for the components of surge capacity, but more work is needed to integrate them. The overwhelming concentration in the United States complicates the generalizability of existing approaches and findings. CONCLUSIONS: The concept of surge capacity is a useful addition to the study of health systems' disaster and/or pandemic planning, mitigation, and response, and it has far-reaching policy implications. Even though research in this area has grown quickly, it has yet to fulfill its potential to generate knowledge to inform policy. Work is needed to generate robust conceptual and analytical frameworks, along with innovations in data collection and methodological approaches that enhance health systems' readiness for, and response to, unpredictable high-consequence surges in demand.

Distribution of selected healthcare resources for influenza pandemic response in Cambodia.

INTRODUCTION: Human influenza infection poses a serious public health threat in Cambodia, a country at risk for the emergence and spread of novel influenza viruses with pandemic potential. Prior pandemics demonstrated the adverse impact of influenza on poor communities in developing countries. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution can inform decisions regarding resource mobilization and investment for pandemic mitigation. METHODS: A health facility survey performed across Cambodia obtained data on availability of healthcare resources important for pandemic influenza response. Focusing on five key resources considered most necessary for treating severe influenza (inpatient beds, doctors, nurses, oseltamivir, and ventilators), resource distributions were analyzed at the Operational District (OD) and Province levels, refining data analysis from earlier studies. Resources were stratified by respondent type (hospital vs. District Health Office [DHO]). A summary index of distribution inequality was calculated using the Gini coefficient. Indices for local spatial autocorrelation were measured at the OD level using geographical information system (GIS) analysis. Finally, a potential link between socioeconomic status and resource distribution was explored by mapping resource densities against poverty rates. RESULTS: Gini coefficient calculation revealed variable inequality in distribution of the five key resources at the Province and OD levels. A greater percentage of the population resides in areas of relative under-supply (28.5%) than over-supply (21.3%). Areas with more resources per capita showed significant clustering in central Cambodia while areas with fewer resources clustered in the northern and western provinces. Hospital-based inpatient beds, doctors, and nurses were most heavily concentrated in areas of the country with the lowest poverty rates; however, beds and nurses in Non-Hospital Medical Facilities (NHMF) showed increasing concentrations at higher levels of poverty. CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable heterogeneity in healthcare resource distribution across Cambodia. Distribution mapping at the local level can inform policy decisions on where to stockpile resources in advance of and for reallocation in the event of a pandemic. These findings will be useful in determining future health resource investment, both for pandemic preparedness and for general health system strengthening, and provide a foundation for future analyses of equity in health services provision for pandemic mitigation planning in Cambodia.

Human H5N1 influenza infections in Cambodia 2005-2011: case series and cost-of-illness.

BACKGROUND: Southeast Asia has been identified as a potential epicentre of emerging diseases with pandemic capacity, including highly pathogenic influenza. Cambodia in particular has the potential for high rates of avoidable deaths from pandemic influenza due to large gaps in health system resources. This study seeks to better understand the course and cost-of-illness for cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Cambodia. METHODS: We studied the 18 laboratory-confirmed cases of avian influenza subtype H5N1 identified in Cambodia between January 2005 and August 2011. Medical records for all patients were reviewed to extract information on patient characteristics, travel to hospital, time to admission, diagnostic testing, treatment and disease outcomes. Further data related to costs was collected through interviews with key informants at district and provincial hospitals, the Ministry of Health and non-governmental organisations. An ingredient-based approach was used to estimate the total economic cost for each study patient. Costing was conducted from a societal perspective and included both financial and opportunity costs to the patient or carer. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken to evaluate potential change or variation in the cost-of-illness. RESULTS: Of the 18 patients studied, 11 (61%) were under the age of 18 years. The majority of patients (16, 89%) died, eight (44%) within 24 hours of hospital admission. There was an average delay of seven days between symptom onset and hospitalisation with patients travelling an average of 148 kilometres (8-476 km) to the admitting hospital. Five patients were treated with oseltamivir of whom two received the recommended dose. For the 16 patients who received all their treatment in Cambodia the average per patient cost of H5N1 influenza illness was US$300 of which 85.0% comprised direct medical provider costs, including diagnostic testing (41.2%), pharmaceuticals (28.4%), hospitalisation (10.4%), oxygen (4.4%) and outpatient consultations (0.6%). Patient or family costs were US$45 per patient (15.0%) of total economic cost. CONCLUSION: Cases of avian influenza in Cambodia were characterised by delays in hospitalisation, deficiencies in some aspects of treatment and a high fatality rate. The costs associated with medical care, particularly diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical therapy, were major contributors to the relatively high cost-of-illness.