Lessons identified from applications of the Risk Analysis Quality Test Release 1.0.

The Risk Analysis Quality Test Release 1.0 (RAQT1.0) was developed as a framework to encourage mutual understanding between technical risk analysts and risk management decision makers of risk assessment quality indicators. The initial version (release 1.0) was published by the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) in 2020 with the intent of learning from early test applications whether the approach was useful and whether changes in approach or contents would be helpful. The results of applications across three diverse fields are reported here. The applications include both retrospective evaluations of past risk assessments and prospective guidance on the design of future risk assessment projects or systems. The fields represented include Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, Cultural Property Risk Analysis, and Software Development Cyber Risk Analysis. The RAQT1.0 proved helpful for identifying shortcomings in all applications. Ways in which the RAQT1.0 might be improved are also identified.

Human Dose-Response Data for Francisella tularensis and a Dose- and Time-Dependent Mathematical Model of Early-Phase Fever Associated with Tularemia After Inhalation Exposure.

Military health risk assessors, medical planners, operational planners, and defense system developers require knowledge of human responses to doses of biothreat agents to support force health protection and chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear (CBRN) defense missions. This article reviews extensive data from 118 human volunteers administered aerosols of the bacterial agent Francisella tularensis, strain Schu S4, which causes tularemia. The data set includes incidence of early-phase febrile illness following administration of well-characterized inhaled doses of F. tularensis. Supplemental data on human body temperature profiles over time available from de-identified case reports is also presented. A unified, logically consistent model of early-phase febrile illness is described as a lognormal dose-response function for febrile illness linked with a stochastic time profile of fever. Three parameters are estimated from the human data to describe the time profile: incubation period or onset time for fever; rise time of fever; and near-maximum body temperature. Inhaled dose-dependence and variability are characterized for each of the three parameters. These parameters enable a stochastic model for the response of an exposed population through incorporation of individual-by-individual variability by drawing random samples from the statistical distributions of these three parameters for each individual. This model provides risk assessors and medical decisionmakers reliable representations of the predicted health impacts of early-phase febrile illness for as long as one week after aerosol exposures of human populations to F. tularensis.

Microbiota and Dose Response: Evolving Paradigm of Health Triangle.

SRA Dose-Response and Microbial Risk Analysis Specialty Groups jointly sponsored symposia that addressed the intersections between the "microbiome revolution" and dose response. Invited speakers presented on innovations and advances in gut and nasal microbiota (normal microbial communities) in the first decade after the Human Microbiome Project began. The microbiota and their metabolites are now known to influence health and disease directly and indirectly, through modulation of innate and adaptive immune systems and barrier function. Disruption of healthy microbiota is often associated with changes in abundance and diversity of core microbial species (dysbiosis), caused by stressors including antibiotics, chemotherapy, and disease. Nucleic-acid-based metagenomic methods demonstrated that the dysbiotic host microbiota no longer provide normal colonization resistance to pathogens, a critical component of innate immunity of the superorganism. Diverse pathogens, probiotics, and prebiotics were considered in human and animal models (in vivo and in vitro). Discussion included approaches for design of future microbial dose-response studies to account for the presence of the indigenous microbiota that provide normal colonization resistance, and the absence of the protective microbiota in dysbiosis. As NextGen risk analysis methodology advances with the "microbiome revolution," a proposed new framework, the Health Triangle, may replace the old paradigm based on the Disease Triangle (focused on host, pathogen, and environment) and germophobia. Collaborative experimental designs are needed for testing hypotheses about causality in dose-response relationships for pathogens present in our environments that clearly compete in complex ecosystems with thousands of bacterial species dominating the healthy superorganism.

Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol Exposures of Bacillus anthracis Spores.

Survival models are developed to predict response and time-to-response for mortality in rabbits following exposures to single or multiple aerosol doses of Bacillus anthracis spores. Hazard function models were developed for a multiple-dose data set to predict the probability of death through specifying functions of dose response and the time between exposure and the time-to-death (TTD). Among the models developed, the best-fitting survival model (baseline model) is an exponential dose-response model with a Weibull TTD distribution. Alternative models assessed use different underlying dose-response functions and use the assumption that, in a multiple-dose scenario, earlier doses affect the hazard functions of each subsequent dose. In addition, published mechanistic models are analyzed and compared with models developed in this article. None of the alternative models that were assessed provided a statistically significant improvement in fit over the baseline model. The general approach utilizes simple empirical data analysis to develop parsimonious models with limited reliance on mechanistic assumptions. The baseline model predicts TTDs consistent with reported results from three independent high-dose rabbit data sets. More accurate survival models depend upon future development of dose-response data sets specifically designed to assess potential multiple-dose effects on response and time-to-response. The process used in this article to develop the best-fitting survival model for exposure of rabbits to multiple aerosol doses of B. anthracis spores should have broad applicability to other host-pathogen systems and dosing schedules because the empirical modeling approach is based upon pathogen-specific empirically-derived parameters.

A cost-benefit analysis of a proposed overseas refugee latent tuberculosis infection screening and treatment program.

BACKGROUND: This study explored the effect of screening and treatment of refugees for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) before entrance to the United States as a strategy for reducing active tuberculosis (TB). The purpose of this study was to estimate the costs and benefits of LTBI screening and treatment in United States bound refugees prior to arrival. METHODS: Costs were included for foreign and domestic LTBI screening and treatment and the domestic treatment of active TB. A decision tree with multiple Markov nodes was developed to determine the total costs and number of active TB cases that occurred in refugee populations that tested 55, 35, and 20 % tuberculin skin test positive under two models: no overseas LTBI screening and overseas LTBI screening and treatment. For this analysis, refugees that tested 55, 35, and 20 % tuberculin skin test positive were divided into high, moderate, and low LTBI prevalence categories to denote their prevalence of LTBI relative to other refugee populations. RESULTS: For a hypothetical 1-year cohort of 100,000 refugees arriving in the United States from regions with high, moderate, and low LTBI prevalence, implementation of overseas screening would be expected to prevent 440, 220, and 57 active TB cases in the United States during the first 20 years after arrival. The cost savings associated with treatment of these averted cases would offset the cost of LTBI screening and treatment for refugees from countries with high (net cost-saving: $4.9 million) and moderate (net cost-saving: $1.6 million) LTBI prevalence. For low LTBI prevalence populations, LTBI screening and treatment exceed expected future TB treatment cost savings (net cost of $780,000). CONCLUSIONS: Implementing LTBI screening and treatment for United States bound refugees from countries with high or moderate LTBI prevalence would potentially save millions of dollars and contribute to United States TB elimination goals. These estimates are conservative since secondary transmission from tuberculosis cases in the United States was not considered in the model.

Economics of malaria prevention in US travelers to West Africa.

BACKGROUND: Pretravel health consultations help international travelers manage travel-related illness risks through education, vaccination, and medication. This study evaluated costs and benefits of that portion of the health consultation associated with malaria prevention provided to US travelers bound for West Africa. METHODS: The estimated change in disease risk and associated costs and benefits resulting from traveler adherence to malaria chemoprophylaxis were calculated from 2 perspectives: the healthcare payer's and the traveler's. We used data from the Global TravEpiNet network of US travel clinics that collect de-identified pretravel data for international travelers. Disease risk and chemoprophylaxis effectiveness were estimated from published medical reports. Direct medical costs were obtained from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample and published literature. RESULTS: We analyzed 1029 records from January 2009 to January 2011. Assuming full adherence to chemoprophylaxis regimens, consultations saved healthcare payers a per-traveler average of $14 (9-day trip) to $372 (30-day trip). For travelers, consultations resulted in a range of net cost of $20 (9-day trip) to a net savings of $32 (30-day trip). Differences were mostly driven by risk of malaria in the destination country. CONCLUSIONS: Our model suggests that healthcare payers save money for short- and longer-term trips, and that travelers save money for longer trips when travelers adhere to malaria recommendations and prophylactic regimens in West Africa. This is a potential incentive to healthcare payers to offer consistent pretravel preventive care to travelers. This financial benefit complements the medical benefit of reducing the risk of malaria.

Trends in Burdens of Disease by Transmission Source (USA, 2005-2020) and Hazard Identification for Foods: Focus on Milkborne Disease.

BACKGROUND: Robust solutions to global, national, and regional burdens of communicable and non-communicable diseases, particularly related to diet, demand interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary collaborations to effectively inform risk analysis and policy decisions. OBJECTIVE: U.S. outbreak data for 2005-2020 from all transmission sources were analyzed for trends in the burden of infectious disease and foodborne outbreaks. METHODS: Outbreak data from 58 Microsoft Access® data tables were structured using systematic queries and pivot tables for analysis by transmission source, pathogen, and date. Trends were examined using graphical representations, smoothing splines, Spearman's rho rank correlations, and non-parametric testing for trend. Hazard Identification was conducted based on the number and severity of illnesses. RESULTS: The evidence does not support increasing trends in the burden of infectious foodborne disease, though strongly increasing trends were observed for other transmission sources. Morbidity and mortality were dominated by person-to-person transmission; foodborne and other transmission sources accounted for small portions of the disease burden. Foods representing the greatest hazards associated with the four major foodborne bacterial diseases were identified. Fatal foodborne disease was dominated by fruits, vegetables, peanut butter, and pasteurized dairy. CONCLUSION: The available evidence conflicts with assumptions of zero risk for pasteurized milk and increasing trends in the burden of illness for raw milk. For future evidence-based risk management, transdisciplinary risk analysis methodologies are essential to balance both communicable and non-communicable diseases and both food safety and food security, considering scientific, sustainable, economic, cultural, social, and political factors to support health and wellness for humans and ecosystems.

Physical fitness and academic performance in middle school students.

AIM: The purpose of this study was to determine whether physical fitness is linked to academic success in middle school students. METHODS: The FITNESSGRAM test battery assessed students (n = 838) in the five components of health-related fitness. The Illinois Standardized Achievement Test (ISAT) was used to assess academic achievement in reading and math. RESULTS: The largest correlations were seen for aerobic fitness and muscular endurance (ranging from 0.12 to 0.27, all p < 0.05). Boys in the Healthy Fitness Zone (HFZ) for aerobic fitness or muscular endurance were 2.5-3 times more likely to pass their math or reading exams. Girls in the HFZ for aerobic fitness were approximately 2-4 times as likely to meet or exceed reading and math test standards. CONCLUSIONS: Aerobic capacity and muscular endurance seem to positively affect academic achievement in middle school students.

An anatomical study of the parasacral block using magnetic resonance imaging of healthy volunteers.

BACKGROUND: The parasacral approach to sciatic blockade is reported to be easy to learn and perform, with a high success rate and few complications. METHODS: Using magnetic resonance imaging, we evaluated the accuracy of a simulated needle (perpendicular to skin) in contacting the sacral plexus with this approach in 10 volunteers. Intrapelvic structures encountered during the simulated parasacral blocks were also recorded. RESULTS: The sacral plexus was contacted by the simulated needle in 4 of the 10 volunteers, and the sciatic nerve itself in one volunteer. The plexus was accurately located adjacent to a variety of visceral structures, including small bowel, blood vessels, and ovary. In the remaining five volunteers (in whom the plexus was not contacted on first needle pass), small bowel, rectum, blood vessels, seminal vesicles, and bony structures were encountered. Historically, when plexus is not encountered, readjustment of the needle insertion point more caudally has been recommended. We found that such an adjustment resulted in simulated perforation of intrapelvic organs or the perianal fossa. CONCLUSIONS: These findings question the reliability of the anatomical landmarks of the parasacral block and raise the possibility of frequent visceral puncture using this technique.

Support for universal childhood vaccination against influenza among private pediatric clinics and public health departments in Georgia.

Recently, it has been recommended that all persons 6 months to 18 years be vaccinated annually against influenza. To assess support for this universal recommendation leading up to its implementation, a cross-sectional survey of healthcare workers at private pediatric clinics (N = 44) and public health departments (N = 75) was conducted. The survey, conducted in the state of Georgia during 2005-2006, asked about (a) support for universal childhood vaccination against influenza, (b) general and influenza-specific immunization practices in 2004-2005, and (c) types of assistance needed to implement a universal childhood recommendation. Our response rate was 70 percent for private clinics and 71 percent for public health departments. The majority of providers supported universal childhood vaccination against influenza; agreement was especially pronounced at public health departments. Public health departments employed more nurses and were more likely to have a policy of vaccinating parents along with their children; private clinics were more likely to use patient reminders or add extra hours during the influenza vaccination season. Respondents from both types of clinics indicated they would need multiple forms of assistance to implement a universal recommendation for childhood vaccination against influenza. Given the strong support for universal vaccination among healthcare workers at public health departments, these facilities may be instrumental for reaching the large number of children recently added to the recommendations. However, these facilities will need multiple forms of assistance.

Review of induced molting by feed removal and contamination of eggs with Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis.

As laying hens age, egg production and quality decreases. Egg producers can impose an induced molt on older hens that results in increased egg productivity and decreased hen mortality compared with non-molted hens of the same age. This review discusses the effect of induced molting by feed removal on immune parameters, Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis (SE) invasion and subsequent production of SE-contaminated eggs. Experimental oral infections with SE show molted hens are more susceptible to SE infection and produce more SE-contaminated eggs in the first few weeks post-molt compared with pre-molt egg production. In addition, it appears that molted hens are more likely to disseminate SE into their environment. Molted hens are more susceptible to SE infection by contact exposure to experimentally infected hens; thus, transmission of SE among molted hens could be more rapid than non-molted birds. Histological examination of the gastrointestinal tracts of molted SE-infected hens revealed more frequent and severe intestinal mucosal lesions compared with non-molted SE-infected hens. These data suggest that induced molting by feed deprivation alters the normal asymptomatic host-pathogen relationship. Published data suggest the highest proportion of SE-positive eggs is produced within 1-5 weeks post-molt and decreases sharply by 6-10 weeks and dissipates to the background level for non-molted hens by 11-20 weeks. Appropriate treatment measures of eggs produced in the fist 5 weeks post-molting may decrease the risk of foodborne infections to humans.

Inhalation anthrax: dose response and risk analysis.

The notion that inhalation of a single Bacillus anthracis spore is fatal has become entrenched nearly to the point of urban legend, in part because of incomplete articulation of the scientific basis for microbial risk assessment, particularly dose-response assessment. Risk analysis (ie, risk assessment, risk communication, risk management) necessitates transparency: distinguishing scientific facts, hypotheses, judgments, biases in interpretations, and potential misinformation. The difficulty in achieving transparency for biothreat risk is magnified by misinformation and poor characterization of both dose-response relationships and the driving mechanisms that cause susceptibility or resistance to disease progression. Regrettably, this entrenchment unnecessarily restricts preparedness planning to a single response scenario: decontaminate until no spores are detectable in air, water, or on surfaces-essentially forcing a zero-tolerance policy inconsistent with the biology of anthrax. We present evidence about inhalation anthrax dose-response relationships, including reports from multiple studies documenting exposures insufficient to cause inhalation anthrax in laboratory animals and humans. The emphasis of the article is clarification about what is known from objective scientific evidence for doses of anthrax spores associated with survival and mortality. From this knowledge base, we discuss the need for future applications of more formal risk analysis processes to guide development of alternative non-zero criteria or standards based on science to inform preparedness planning and other risk management activities.

Evaluating the effectiveness of pasteurization for reducing human illnesses from Salmonella spp. in egg products: results of a quantitative risk assessment.

As part of the process for developing risk-based performance standards for egg product processing, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) undertook a quantitative microbial risk assessment for Salmonella spp. in pasteurized egg products. The assessment was designed to assist risk managers in evaluating egg handling and pasteurization performance standards for reducing the likelihood of Salmonella in pasteurized egg products and the subsequent risk to human health. The following seven pasteurized liquid egg product formulations were included in the risk assessment model, with the value in parentheses indicating the estimated annual number of human illnesses from Salmonella from each: egg white (2636), whole egg (1763), egg yolk (708), whole egg with 10% salt (407), whole egg with 10% sugar (0), egg yolk with 10% salt (11), and egg yolk with 10% sugar (0). Increased levels of pasteurization were predicted to be highly effective mitigations for reducing the number of illnesses. For example, if all egg white products were pasteurized for a 6-log(10) reduction of Salmonella, the estimated annual number of illnesses from these products would be reduced from 2636 to 270. The risk assessment identified several data gaps and research needs, including a quantitative study of cross-contamination during egg product processing and characterization of egg storage times and temperatures (i) on farms and in homes, (ii) for eggs produced off-line, and (iii) for egg products at retail. Pasteurized egg products are a relatively safe food; however, findings from this study suggest increased pasteurization can make them safer.

Influenza vaccination of health care workers: policies and practices of hospitals in a community setting.

BACKGROUND: The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices has long recommended that health care workers receive annual influenza vaccinations to prevent transmission of disease to vulnerable patients, but HCW vaccination rates remain low, and there is little information about hospital policies promoting employee vaccination. METHODS: Our objective was to collect information about and compare hospital influenza vaccination policies and practices regarding health care workers in the metropolitan Atlanta community and identify relationships between policies and practices and employee coverage rates. Senior staff of infection control and of employee health programs at 12 hospitals in the metropolitan Atlanta community completed an in-person interview using a structured guide. RESULTS: All study hospitals provided vaccine free of charge to employees in on-site clinics. Seven of the 9 hospitals clustered between 34% and 47% of their employees vaccinated, with an average of 41%. The hospitals that included flexibility and better accessibility, such as providing vaccination carts and adding more hours of vaccine availability, had somewhat higher hospital employee vaccination rates. Personal contact in the form of educational presentations appears to have more influence on employee decisions than distributing printed educational materials. CONCLUSION: Hospitals in the Atlanta community had several similar policies and practices to improve immunization coverage of their staff. Human interactions with employees as well as ease of vaccine access may be more successful at increasing coverage rates than mass approaches such as posters or flyers.

Cost analysis of measles in refugees arriving at Los Angeles International Airport from Malaysia.

Background On August 24, 2011, 31 US-bound refugees from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (KL) arrived in Los Angeles. One of them was diagnosed with measles post-arrival. He exposed others during a flight, and persons in the community while disembarking and seeking medical care. As a result, 9 cases of measles were identified. Methods We estimated costs of response to this outbreak and conducted a comparative cost analysis examining what might have happened had all US-bound refugees been vaccinated before leaving Malaysia. Results State-by-state costs differed and variously included vaccination, hospitalization, medical visits, and contact tracing with costs ranging from $621 to $35,115. The total of domestic and IOM Malaysia reported costs for US-bound refugees were $137,505 [range: $134,531 - $142,777 from a sensitivity analysis]. Had all US-bound refugees been vaccinated while in Malaysia, it would have cost approximately $19,646 and could have prevented 8 measles cases. Conclusion A vaccination program for US-bound refugees, supporting a complete vaccination for US-bound refugees, could improve refugees' health, reduce importations of vaccine-preventable diseases in the United States, and avert measles response activities and costs.

Comparison of Listeria monocytogenes virulence in a mouse model.

Listeriosis results from exposure to the foodborne pathogen Listeria monocytogenes. Although many different strains of L. monocytogenes are isolated from food, no definitive tests currently predict which isolates are most virulent. The objectives of this study were to address two major data gaps for risk assessors, variability among L. monocytogenes strains in pathogenicity and virulence. Strains used in our monkey clinical trial or additional food isolates were evaluated for their virulence and infectivity in mice. All strains were equally pathogenic to immunocompromised mice, causing deaths to 50% of the population 3 days after exposure to doses ranging from 2 to 3 log CFU. Doses resulting in 50% deaths on the fifth day after administration were 1 to 2 log lower than those on the third day, indicating that the full course of pathogenicity exceeds the 3-day endpoint in immunocompromised mice. Three strains were chosen for further testing for their virulence and infectivity in liver and spleen in normal (immunocompetent) mice. Virulence was not significantly different (P > 0.05) among the three strains, all resulting in deaths to 50% of mice at 5 to 7 log CFU by 5 days after administration. All strains were equally infective in liver or spleen, with higher numbers of L. monocytogenes directly correlated with higher doses of administration. In addition, there was no preference of organs by any strains. The lack of strain differences may reflect the limitation of the mouse model and suggests the importance of using various models to evaluate the pathogenicity and virulence of L. monocytogenes strains.

Economic Analysis of the Impact of Overseas and Domestic Treatment and Screening Options for Intestinal Helminth Infection among US-Bound Refugees from Asia.

BACKGROUND: Many U.S.-bound refugees travel from countries where intestinal parasites (hookworm, Trichuris trichuria, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Strongyloides stercoralis) are endemic. These infections are rare in the United States and may be underdiagnosed or misdiagnosed, leading to potentially serious consequences. This evaluation examined the costs and benefits of combinations of overseas presumptive treatment of parasitic diseases vs. domestic screening/treating vs. no program. METHODS: An economic decision tree model terminating in Markov processes was developed to estimate the cost and health impacts of four interventions on an annual cohort of 27,700 U.S.-bound Asian refugees: 1) "No Program," 2) U.S. "Domestic Screening and Treatment," 3) "Overseas Albendazole and Ivermectin" presumptive treatment, and 4) "Overseas Albendazole and Domestic Screening for Strongyloides". Markov transition state models were used to estimate long-term effects of parasitic infections. Health outcome measures (four parasites) included outpatient cases, hospitalizations, deaths, life years, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). RESULTS: The "No Program" option is the least expensive ($165,923 per cohort) and least effective option (145 outpatient cases, 4.0 hospitalizations, and 0.67 deaths discounted over a 60-year period for a one-year cohort). The "Overseas Albendazole and Ivermectin" option ($418,824) is less expensive than "Domestic Screening and Treatment" ($3,832,572) or "Overseas Albendazole and Domestic Screening for Strongyloides" ($2,182,483). According to the model outcomes, the most effective treatment option is "Overseas Albendazole and Ivermectin," which reduces outpatient cases, deaths and hospitalization by around 80% at an estimated net cost of $458,718 per death averted, or $2,219/$24,036 per QALY/life year gained relative to "No Program". DISCUSSION: Overseas presumptive treatment for U.S.-bound refugees is a cost-effective intervention that is less expensive and at least as effective as domestic screening and treatment programs. The addition of ivermectin to albendazole reduces the prevalence of chronic strongyloidiasis and the probability of rare, but potentially fatal, disseminated strongyloidiasis.

Factors affecting U.S. manufacturers' decisions to produce vaccines.

Recent supply interruptions of childhood vaccines have had negative impacts on U.S. public health policies and vaccine delivery. To understand how manufacturers perceive production incentives and disincentives, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) met with the four pharmaceutical firms that sold vaccines through CDC-negotiated contracts during 2002 and 2003. These meetings shed light on the regulatory burden, high costs of the delay between initial investment and sales, and higher costs of new technologies versus older vaccines. All four manufacturers are investing more in research and development because new technologies have advanced their ability to create vaccines not thought possible before.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening and Treating Foreign-Born Students for Tuberculosis before Entering the United States.

INTRODUCTION: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is considering implementation of overseas medical screening of student-visa applicants to reduce the numbers of active tuberculosis cases entering the United States. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the costs, cases averted, and cost-effectiveness of screening for, and treating, tuberculosis in United States-bound students from countries with varying tuberculosis prevalence. METHODS: Costs and benefits were evaluated from two perspectives, combined and United States only. The combined perspective totaled overseas and United States costs and benefits from a societal perspective. The United States only perspective was a domestic measure of costs and benefits. A decision tree was developed to determine the cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis screening and treatment from the combined perspective. RESULTS: From the United States only perspective, overseas screening programs of Chinese and Indian students would prevent the importation of 157 tuberculosis cases annually, and result in $2.7 million in savings. From the combined perspective, screening programs for Chinese students would cost more than $2.8 million annually and screening programs for Indian students nearly $440,000 annually. From the combined perspective, the incremental cost for each tuberculosis case averted by screening Chinese and Indian students was $22,187 and $15,063, respectively. Implementing screening programs for German students would prevent no cases in most years, and would result in increased costs both overseas and in the United States. The domestic costs would occur because public health departments would need to follow up on students identified overseas as having an elevated risk of tuberculosis. CONCLUSIONS: Tuberculosis screening and treatment programs for students seeking long term visas to attend United States schools would reduce the number of tuberculosis cases imported. Implementing screening in high-incidence countries could save the United States millions of dollars annually; however there would be increased costs incurred overseas for students and their families.

Cost-benefit comparison of two proposed overseas programs for reducing chronic Hepatitis B infection among refugees: is screening essential?

BACKGROUND: Refugees are at an increased risk of chronic Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection because many of their countries of origin, as well as host countries, have intermediate-to-high prevalence rates. Refugees arriving to the US are also at risk of serious sequelae from chronic HBV infection because they are not routinely screened for the virus overseas or in domestic post-arrival exams, and may live in the US for years without awareness of their infection status. METHODS: A cohort of 26,548 refugees who arrived in Minnesota and Georgia during 2005-2010 was evaluated to determine the prevalence of chronic HBV infection. This prevalence information was then used in a cost-benefit analysis comparing two variations of a proposed overseas program to prevent or ameliorate the effects of HBV infection, titled 'Screen, then vaccinate or initiate management' (SVIM) and 'Vaccinate only' (VO). The analyses were performed in 2013. All values were converted to US 2012 dollars. RESULTS: The estimated six year period-prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 6.8% in the overall refugee population arriving to Minnesota and Georgia and 7.1% in those ≥6 years of age. The SVIM program variation was more cost beneficial than VO. While the up-front costs of SVIM were higher than VO ($154,084 vs. $73,758; n=58,538 refugees), the SVIM proposal displayed a positive net benefit, ranging from $24 million to $130 million after only 5 years since program initiation, depending on domestic post-arrival screening rates in the VO proposal. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic HBV infection remains an important health problem in refugees resettling to the United States. An overseas screening policy for chronic HBV infection is more cost-beneficial than a 'Vaccination only' policy. The major benefit drivers for the screening policy are earlier medical management of chronic HBV infection and averted lost societal contributions from premature death.