The Cost of Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVES: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, with an increasing incidence and prevalence because of progressively aging populations. Costs related to AF are both direct and indirect. This systematic review aims to identify the main cost drivers of the illness, assess the potential economic impact resulting from changes in care strategies, and propose interventions where they are most needed. METHODS: A systematic literature search of the PubMed and Scopus databases was performed to identify analytical observational studies defining the cost of illness in cases of AF. The search strategy was based on the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) 2020 recommendations. RESULTS: Of the 944 articles retrieved, 24 met the inclusion criteria. These studies were conducted in several countries. All studies calculated the direct medical costs, whereas 8 of 24 studies assessed indirect costs. The median annual direct medical cost per patient, considering all studies, was €9409 (13 333 US dollars in purchasing power parities), with a very large variability due to the heterogeneity of different analyses. Hospitalization costs are generally the main cost drivers. Comorbidities and complications, such as stroke, considerably increase the average annual direct medical cost of AF. CONCLUSIONS: In most of the analyzed studies, inpatient care cost represents the main component of the mean direct medical cost per patient. Stroke and heart failure are responsible for a large share of the total costs; therefore, implementing guidelines to manage comorbidities in AF is a necessary step to improve health and mitigate healthcare costs.

Cost-effectiveness of a whole-area testing pilot of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections with lateral flow devices: a modelling and economic analysis study.

BACKGROUND: Mass community testing for SARS-CoV-2 by lateral flow devices (LFDs) aims to reduce prevalence in the community. However its effectiveness as a public heath intervention is disputed. METHOD: Data from a mass testing pilot in the Borough of Merthyr Tydfil in late 2020 was used to model cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths prevented. Further economic analysis with a healthcare perspective assessed cost-effectiveness in terms of healthcare costs avoided and QALYs gained. RESULTS: An initial conservative estimate of 360 (95% CI: 311-418) cases were prevented by the mass testing, representing a would-be reduction of 11% of all cases diagnosed in Merthyr Tydfil residents during the same period. Modelling healthcare burden estimates that 24 (16-36) hospitalizations, 5 (3-6) ICU admissions and 15 (11-20) deaths were prevented, representing 6.37%, 11.1% and 8.2%, respectively of the actual counts during the same period. A less conservative, best-case scenario predicts 2333 (1764-3115) cases prevented, representing 80% reduction in would-be cases. Cost -effectiveness analysis indicates 108 (80-143) QALYs gained, an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £2,143 (£860-£4,175) per QALY gained and net monetary benefit of £6.2 m (£4.5 m-£8.4 m). In the best-case scenario, this increases to £15.9 m (£12.3 m-£20.5 m). CONCLUSIONS: A non-negligible number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths were prevented by the mass testing pilot. Considering QALYs gained and healthcare costs avoided, the pilot was cost-effective. These findings suggest mass testing with LFDs in areas of high prevalence (> 2%) is likely to provide significant public health benefit. It is not yet clear whether similar benefits will be obtained in low prevalence settings or with vaccination rollout.

Estimating the health and economic effects of the voluntary sodium reduction targets in Brazil: microsimulation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Excessive sodium consumption is one of the leading dietary risk factors for non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), mediated by high blood pressure. Brazil has implemented voluntary sodium reduction targets with food industries since 2011. This study aimed to analyse the potential health and economic impact of these sodium reduction targets in Brazil from 2013 to 2032. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation of a close-to-reality synthetic population (IMPACTNCD-BR) to evaluate the potential health benefits of setting voluntary upper limits for sodium content as part of the Brazilian government strategy. The model estimates CVD deaths and cases prevented or postponed, and disease treatment costs. Model inputs were informed by the 2013 National Health Survey, the 2008-2009 Household Budget Survey, and high-quality meta-analyses, assuming that all individuals were exposed to the policy proportionally to their sodium intake from processed food. Costs included costs of the National Health System on CVD treatment and informal care costs. The primary outcome measures of the model are cardiovascular disease cases and deaths prevented or postponed over 20 years (2013-2032), stratified by age and sex. RESULTS: The study found that the application of the Brazilian voluntary sodium targets for packaged foods between 2013 and 2032 could prevent or postpone approximately 110,000 CVD cases (95% uncertainty intervals (UI): 28,000 to 260,000) among men and 70,000 cases among women (95% UI: 16,000 to 170,000), and also prevent or postpone approximately 2600 CVD deaths (95% UI: - 1000 to 11,000), 55% in men. The policy could also produce a net cost saving of approximately US$ 220 million (95% UI: US$ 54 to 520 million) in medical costs to the Brazilian National Health System for the treatment of CHD and stroke and save approximately US$ 71 million (95% UI: US$ 17 to170 million) in informal costs. CONCLUSION: Brazilian voluntary sodium targets could generate substantial health and economic impacts. The reduction in sodium intake that was likely achieved from the voluntary targets indicates that sodium reduction in Brazil must go further and faster to achieve the national and World Health Organization goals for sodium intake.

Does Social Support Affect Older Adults' General Practitioner Attendance Rates? Findings from the North West Coast Household Health Survey.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to explore whether social support and socio-economic status have an effect on primary care attendance in older adults (aged 65+). METHODS: This study used data from the longitudinal North West Coast (NWC) Household Health Survey (HHS) from across 20 disadvantaged and 8 less disadvantaged neighborhoods. Data included the EQ-5D, social support, frailty-related measures, healthcare utilization, and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). Principal component analysis was used to derive a factor for social support. Poisson regression analysis was employed to explore the effects of frailty, social support, General Practitioner (GP) distance, education, IMD, living situation, and depression on the number of GP attendances in the past 12 months. RESULTS: 1,685 older adults were included in this analysis. Of those older adults who visited their GP (87.4%), most had visited their GP twice in the past 12 months. Having an educational qualification, higher levels of social support, and being physically fit reduced GP utilization. Being moderately frail, depressed, and living further away from the nearest GP increased attendance. Older adults living in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods were more likely to visit their GP. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing social support impacts to a small, but important, extent on reducing GP attendance in older adults. Future research needs to explore whether improving social support in old age can reduce GP utilization. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Findings suggest a need for improving social prescribing in older adults to reduce some GP visits which could be avoided and might not be necessary.

Potential impact of diabetes prevention on mortality and future burden of dementia and disability: a modelling study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Diabetes is associated with an increased risk of dementia. We estimated the potential impact of trends in diabetes prevalence upon mortality and the future burden of dementia and disability in England and Wales. METHODS: We used a probabilistic multi-state, open cohort Markov model to integrate observed trends in diabetes, cardiovascular disease and dementia to forecast the occurrence of disability and dementia up to the year 2060. Model input data were taken from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, Office for National Statistics vital data and published effect estimates for health-state transition probabilities. The baseline scenario corresponded to recent trends in obesity: a 26% increase in the number of people with diabetes by 2060. This scenario was evaluated against three alternative projected trends in diabetes: increases of 49%, 20% and 7%. RESULTS: Our results suggest that changes in the trend in diabetes prevalence will lead to changes in mortality and incidence of dementia and disability, which will become visible after 10-15 years. If the relative prevalence of diabetes increases 49% by 2060, expected additional deaths would be approximately 255,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 236,000-272,200), with 85,900 (71,500-101,600) cumulative additional cases of dementia and 104,900 (85,900-125,400) additional cases of disability. With a smaller relative increase in diabetes prevalence (7% increase by 2060), we estimated 222,200 (205,700-237,300) fewer deaths, and 77,000 (64,300-90,800) and 93,300 (76,700-111,400) fewer additional cases of dementia and disability, respectively, than the baseline case of a 26% increase in diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Reducing the burden of diabetes could result in substantial reductions in the incidence of dementia and disability over the medium to long term.

Cost-Effectiveness of the US Food and Drug Administration Added Sugar Labeling Policy for Improving Diet and Health.

BACKGROUND: Excess added sugars, particularly from sugar-sweetened beverages, are a major risk factor for cardiometabolic diseases including cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. In 2016, the US Food and Drug Administration mandated the labeling of added sugar content on all packaged foods and beverages. Yet, the potential health impacts and cost-effectiveness of this policy remain unclear. METHODS: A validated microsimulation model (US IMPACT Food Policy model) was used to estimate cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus cases averted, quality-adjusted life-years, policy costs, health care, informal care, and lost productivity (health-related) savings and cost-effectiveness of 2 policy scenarios: (1) implementation of the US Food and Drug Administration added sugar labeling policy (sugar label), and (2) further accounting for corresponding industry reformulation (sugar label+reformulation). The model used nationally representative demographic and dietary intake data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, disease data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wonder Database, policy effects and diet-disease effects from meta-analyses, and policy and health-related costs from established sources. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis accounted for model parameter uncertainties and population heterogeneity. RESULTS: Between 2018 and 2037, the sugar label would prevent 354 400 cardiovascular disease (95% uncertainty interval, 167 000-673 500) and 599 300 (302 400-957 400) diabetes mellitus cases, gain 727 000 (401 300-1 138 000) quality-adjusted life-years, and save $31 billion (15.7-54.5) in net healthcare costs or $61.9 billion (33.1-103.3) societal costs (incorporating reduced lost productivity and informal care costs). For the sugar label+reformulation scenario, corresponding gains were 708 800 (369 200-1 252 000) cardiovascular disease cases, 1.2 million (0.7-1.7) diabetes mellitus cases, 1.3 million (0.8-1.9) quality-adjusted life-years, and $57.6 billion (31.9-92.4) and $113.2 billion (67.3-175.2), respectively. Both scenarios were estimated with >80% probability to be cost saving by 2023. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing the US Food and Drug Administration added sugar labeling policy could generate substantial health gains and cost savings for the US population.

The potential health impact of restricting less-healthy food and beverage advertising on UK television between 05.30 and 21.00 hours: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Restrictions on the advertising of less-healthy foods and beverages is seen as one measure to tackle childhood obesity and is under active consideration by the UK government. Whilst evidence increasingly links this advertising to excess calorie intake, understanding of the potential impact of advertising restrictions on population health is limited. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a proportional multi-state life table model to estimate the health impact of prohibiting the advertising of food and beverages high in fat, sugar, and salt (HFSS) from 05.30 hours to 21.00 hours (5:30 AM to 9:00 PM) on television in the UK. We used the following data to parameterise the model: children's exposure to HFSS advertising from AC Nielsen and Broadcasters' Audience Research Board (2015); effect of less-healthy food advertising on acute caloric intake in children from a published meta-analysis; population numbers and all-cause mortality rates from the Human Mortality Database for the UK (2015); body mass index distribution from the Health Survey for England (2016); disability weights for estimating disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease Study; and healthcare costs from NHS England programme budgeting data. The main outcome measures were change in the percentage of the children (aged 5-17 years) with obesity defined using the International Obesity Task Force cut-points, and change in health status (DALYs). Monte Carlo analyses was used to estimate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We estimate that if all HFSS advertising between 05.30 hours and 21.00 hours was withdrawn, UK children (n = 13,729,000), would see on average 1.5 fewer HFSS adverts per day and decrease caloric intake by 9.1 kcal (95% UI 0.5-17.7 kcal), which would reduce the number of children (aged 5-17 years) with obesity by 4.6% (95% UI 1.4%-9.5%) and with overweight (including obesity) by 3.6% (95% UI 1.1%-7.4%) This is equivalent to 40,000 (95% UI 12,000-81,000) fewer UK children with obesity, and 120,000 (95% UI 34,000-240,000) fewer with overweight. For children alive in 2015 (n = 13,729,000), this would avert 240,000 (95% UI 65,000-530,000) DALYs across their lifetime (i.e., followed from 2015 through to death), and result in a health-related net monetary benefit of £7.4 billion (95% UI £2.0 billion-£16 billion) to society. Under a scenario where all HFSS advertising is displaced to after 21.00 hours, rather than withdrawn, we estimate that the benefits would be reduced by around two-thirds. This is a modelling study and subject to uncertainty; we cannot fully and accurately account for all of the factors that would affect the impact of this policy if implemented. Whilst randomised trials show that children exposed to less-healthy food advertising consume more calories, there is uncertainty about the nature of the dose-response relationship between HFSS advertising and calorie intake. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that HFSS television advertising restrictions between 05.30 hours and 21.00 hours in the UK could make a meaningful contribution to reducing childhood obesity. We estimate that the impact on childhood obesity of this policy may be reduced by around two-thirds if adverts are displaced to after 21.00 hours rather than being withdrawn.

Universal or targeted cardiovascular screening? Modelling study using a sector-specific distributional cost effectiveness analysis.

Distributional cost effectiveness analysis is a new method that can help to redesign prevention programmes by explicitly modelling the distribution of health opportunity costs as well as the distribution of health benefits. Previously we modelled cardiovascular disease (CVD) screening audit data from Liverpool, UK to see if the city could redesign its cardiovascular screening programme to enhance its cost effectiveness and equity. Building on this previous analysis, we explicitly examined the distribution of health opportunity costs and we looked at new redesign options co-designed with stakeholders. We simulated four plausible scenarios: a) no CVD screening, b) 'current' basic universal CVD screening as currently implemented, c) enhanced universal CVD screening with 'increased' population-wide delivery, and d) 'universal plus targeted' with top-up delivery to the most deprived fifth. We also compared assumptions around whether displaced health spend would come from programmes that might benefit the poor more and how much health these programmes would generate. The main outcomes were net health benefit and change in the slope index of inequality (SII) in QALYs per 100,000 person years. 'Universal plus targeted' dominated 'increased' and 'current' and also reduced health inequality by -0.65 QALYs per 100,000 person years. Results are highly sensitive to assumptions about opportunity costs and, in particular, whether funding comes from health care or local government budgets. By analysing who loses as well as who gains from expenditure decisions, distributional cost effectiveness analysis can help decision makers to redesign prevention programmes in ways that improve health and reduce health inequality.

Engaging with stakeholders to inform the development of a decision-support tool for the NHS health check programme: qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The NHS Health Check Programme is a risk-reduction programme offered to all adults in England aged 40-74 years. Previous studies mainly focused on patient perspectives and programme delivery; however, delivery varies, and costs are substantial. We were therefore working with key stakeholders to develop and co-produce an NHS Health Check Programme modelling tool (workHORSE) for commissioners to quantify local effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and equity. Here we report on Workshop 1, which specifically aimed to facilitate engagement with stakeholders; develop a shared understanding of current Health Check implementation; identify what is working well, less well, and future hopes; and explore features to include in the tool. METHODS: This qualitative study identified key stakeholders across the UK via networking and snowball techniques. The stakeholders spanned local organisations (NHS commissioners, GPs, and academics), third sector and national organisations (Public Health England and The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence). We used the validated Hovmand "group model building" approach to engage stakeholders in a series of pre-piloted, structured, small group exercises. We then used Framework Analysis to analyse responses. RESULTS: Fifteen stakeholders participated in workshop 1. Stakeholders identified continued financial and political support for the NHS Health Check Programme. However, many stakeholders highlighted issues concerning lack of data on processes and outcomes, variability in quality of delivery, and suboptimal public engagement. Stakeholders' hopes included maximising coverage, uptake, and referrals, and producing additional evidence on population health, equity, and economic impacts. Key model suggestions focused on developing good-practice template scenarios, analysis of broader prevention activities at local level, accessible local data, broader economic perspectives, and fit-for-purpose outputs. CONCLUSIONS: A shared understanding of current implementations of the NHS Health Check Programme was developed. Stakeholders demonstrated their commitment to the NHS Health Check Programme whilst highlighting the perceived requirements for enhancing the service and discussed how the modelling tool could be instrumental in this process. These suggestions for improvement informed subsequent workshops and model development.

Evaluating stakeholder involvement in building a decision support tool for NHS health checks: co-producing the WorkHORSE study.

BACKGROUND: Stakeholder engagement is being increasingly recognised as an important way to achieving impact in public health. The WorkHORSE (Working Health Outcomes Research Simulation Environment) project was designed to continuously engage with stakeholders to inform the development of an open access modelling tool to enable commissioners to quantify the potential cost-effectiveness and equity of the NHS Health Check Programme. An objective of the project was to evaluate the involvement of stakeholders in co-producing the WorkHORSE computer modelling tool and examine how they perceived their involvement in the model building process and ultimately contributed to the strengthening and relevance of the modelling tool. METHODS: We identified stakeholders using our extensive networks and snowballing techniques. Iterative development of the decision support modelling tool was informed through engaging with stakeholders during four workshops. We used detailed scripts facilitating open discussion and opportunities for stakeholders to provide additional feedback subsequently. At the end of each workshop, stakeholders and the research team completed questionnaires to explore their views and experiences throughout the process. RESULTS: 30 stakeholders participated, of which 15 attended two or more workshops. They spanned local (NHS commissioners, GPs, local authorities and academics), third sector and national organisations including Public Health England. Stakeholders felt valued, and commended the involvement of practitioners in the iterative process. Major reasons for attending included: being able to influence development, and having insight and understanding of what the tool could include, and how it would work in practice. Researchers saw the process as an opportunity for developing a common language and trust in the end product, and ensuring the support tool was transparent. The workshops acted as a reality check ensuring model scenarios and outputs were relevant and fit for purpose. CONCLUSIONS: Computational modellers rarely consult with end users when developing tools to inform decision-making. The added value of co-production (continuing collaboration and iteration with stakeholders) enabled modellers to produce a "real-world" operational tool. Likewise, stakeholders had increased confidence in the decision support tool's development and applicability in practice.

FDA Sodium Reduction Targets and the Food Industry: Are There Incentives to Reformulate? Microsimulation Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

Policy Points The World Health Organization has recommended sodium reduction as a "best buy" to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD). Despite this, Congress has temporarily blocked the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) from implementing voluntary industry targets for sodium reduction in processed foods, the implementation of which could cost the industry around $16 billion over 10 years. We modeled the health and economic impact of meeting the two-year and ten-year FDA targets, from the perspective of people working in the food system itself, over 20 years, from 2017 to 2036. Benefits of implementing the FDA voluntary sodium targets extend to food companies and food system workers, and the value of CVD-related health gains and cost savings are together greater than the government and industry costs of reformulation. CONTEXT: The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) set draft voluntary targets to reduce sodium levels in processed foods. We aimed to determine cost effectiveness of meeting these draft sodium targets, from the perspective of US food system workers. METHODS: We employed a microsimulation cost-effectiveness analysis using the US IMPACT Food Policy model with two scenarios: (1) short term, achieving two-year FDA reformulation targets only, and (2) long term, achieving 10-year FDA reformulation targets. We modeled four close-to-reality populations: food system "ever" workers; food system "current" workers in 2017; and subsets of processed food "ever" and "current" workers. Outcomes included cardiovascular disease cases prevented and postponed as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from 2017 to 2036. FINDINGS: Among food system ever workers, achieving long-term sodium reduction targets could produce 20-year health gains of approximately 180,000 QALYs (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 150,000 to 209,000) and health cost savings of approximately $5.2 billion (95% UI: $3.5 billion to $8.3 billion), with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $62,000 (95% UI: $1,000 to $171,000) per QALY gained. For the subset of processed food industry workers, health gains would be approximately 32,000 QALYs (95% UI: 27,000 to 37,000); cost savings, $1.0 billion (95% UI: $0.7bn to $1.6bn); and ICER, $486,000 (95% UI: $148,000 to $1,094,000) per QALY gained. Because many health benefits may occur in individuals older than 65 or the uninsured, these health savings would be shared among individuals, industry, and government. CONCLUSIONS: The benefits of implementing the FDA voluntary sodium targets extend to food companies and food system workers, with the value of health gains and health care cost savings outweighing the costs of reformulation, although not for the processed food industry.

Future cost-effectiveness and equity of the NHS Health Check cardiovascular disease prevention programme: Microsimulation modelling using data from Liverpool, UK.

BACKGROUND: Aiming to contribute to prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the National Health Service (NHS) Health Check programme has been implemented across England since 2009. The programme involves cardiovascular risk stratification-at 5-year intervals-of all adults between the ages of 40 and 74 years, excluding any with preexisting vascular conditions (including CVD, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension, among others), and offers treatment to those at high risk. However, the cost-effectiveness and equity of population CVD screening is contested. This study aimed to determine whether the NHS Health Check programme is cost-effective and equitable in a city with high levels of deprivation and CVD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: IMPACTNCD is a dynamic stochastic microsimulation policy model, calibrated to Liverpool demographics, risk factor exposure, and CVD epidemiology. Using local and national data, as well as drawing on health and social care disease costs and health-state utilities, we modelled 5 scenarios from 2017 to 2040: Scenario (A): continuing current implementation of NHS Health Check;Scenario (B): implementation 'targeted' toward areas in the most deprived quintile with increased coverage and uptake;Scenario (C): 'optimal' implementation assuming optimal coverage, uptake, treatment, and lifestyle change;Scenario (D): scenario A combined with structural population-wide interventions targeting unhealthy diet and smoking;Scenario (E): scenario B combined with the structural interventions as above. We compared all scenarios with a counterfactual of no-NHS Health Check. Compared with no-NHS Health Check, the model estimated cumulative incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) (discounted £/quality-adjusted life year [QALY]) to be 11,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] -270,000 to 320,000) for scenario A, 1,500 (-91,000 to 100,000) for scenario B, -2,400 (-6,500 to 5,700) for scenario C, -5,100 (-7,400 to -3,200) for scenario D, and -5,000 (-7,400 to -3,100) for scenario E. Overall, scenario A is unlikely to become cost-effective or equitable, and scenario B is likely to become cost-effective by 2040 and equitable by 2039. Scenario C is likely to become cost-effective by 2030 and cost-saving by 2040. Scenarios D and E are likely to be cost-saving by 2021 and 2023, respectively, and equitable by 2025. The main limitation of the analysis is that we explicitly modelled CVD and diabetes mellitus only. CONCLUSIONS: According to our analysis of the situation in Liverpool, current NHS Health Check implementation appears neither equitable nor cost-effective. Optimal implementation is likely to be cost-saving but not equitable, while targeted implementation is likely to be both. Adding structural policies targeting cardiovascular risk factors could substantially improve equity and generate cost savings.

Estimating the health and economic effects of the proposed US Food and Drug Administration voluntary sodium reformulation: Microsimulation cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sodium consumption is a modifiable risk factor for higher blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed voluntary sodium reduction goals targeting processed and commercially prepared foods. We aimed to quantify the potential health and economic impact of this policy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a microsimulation approach of a close-to-reality synthetic population (US IMPACT Food Policy Model) to estimate CVD deaths and cases prevented or postponed, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and cost-effectiveness from 2017 to 2036 of 3 scenarios: (1) optimal, 100% compliance with 10-year reformulation targets; (2) modest, 50% compliance with 10-year reformulation targets; and (3) pessimistic, 100% compliance with 2-year reformulation targets, but with no further progress. We used the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and high-quality meta-analyses to inform model inputs. Costs included government costs to administer and monitor the policy, industry reformulation costs, and CVD-related healthcare, productivity, and informal care costs. Between 2017 and 2036, the optimal reformulation scenario achieving the FDA sodium reduction targets could prevent approximately 450,000 CVD cases (95% uncertainty interval: 240,000 to 740,000), gain approximately 2.1 million discounted QALYs (1.7 million to 2.4 million), and produce discounted cost savings (health savings minus policy costs) of approximately $41 billion ($14 billion to $81 billion). In the modest and pessimistic scenarios, health gains would be 1.1 million and 0.7 million QALYS, with savings of $19 billion and $12 billion, respectively. All the scenarios were estimated with more than 80% probability to be cost-effective (incremental cost/QALY < $100,000) by 2021 and to become cost-saving by 2031. Limitations include evaluating only diseases mediated through BP, while decreasing sodium consumption could have beneficial effects upon other health burdens such as gastric cancer. Further, the effect estimates in the model are based on interventional and prospective observational studies. They are therefore subject to biases and confounding that may have influenced also our model estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing and achieving the FDA sodium reformulation targets could generate substantial health gains and net cost savings.

Implications of Brexit on the effectiveness of the UK soft drinks industry levy upon CHD in England: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: An industry levy on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) was implemented in the UK in 2018. One year later, Brexit is likely to change the UK trade regime with potential implications for sugar price. We modelled the effect of potential changes in sugar price due to Brexit on SSB levy impacts upon CHD mortality and inequalities. DESIGN: We modelled a baseline SSB levy scenario; an SSB levy under 'soft' Brexit, where the UK establishes a free trading agreement with the EU; and an SSB levy under 'hard' Brexit, in which World Trade Organization tariffs are applied. We used the previously validated IMPACT Food Policy model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to estimate the effect of each scenario on CHD deaths prevented or postponed and life-years gained, stratified by age, sex and socio-economic circumstance, in 2021. SETTING: England. SUBJECTS: Adults aged 25 years or older. RESULTS: The SSB levy was associated with approximately 370 (95 % uncertainty interval 220, 560) fewer CHD deaths and 4490 (2690, 6710) life-years gained in 2021. Associated reductions in CHD mortality were 4 and 8 % greater under 'soft' and 'hard' Brexit scenarios, respectively. The SSB levy was associated with approximately 110 (50, 190) fewer CHD deaths in the most deprived quintile compared with 60 (20, 100) in the most affluent, under 'hard' Brexit. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found the SSB levy resilient to potential effects of Brexit upon sugar price. Even under 'hard' Brexit, the SSB levy would yield benefits for CHD mortality and inequalities. Brexit negotiations should deliver a fiscal and regulatory environment which promotes population health.

Avoiding Radical Surgery in Elderly Patients With Rectal Cancer Is Cost-Effective.

BACKGROUND: Radical surgery is associated with significant perioperative mortality in elderly and comorbid populations. Emerging data suggest for patients with a clinical complete response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy that a watch-and-wait approach may provide equivalent survival and oncological outcomes. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of watch and wait and radical surgery for patients with rectal cancer after a clinical complete response following chemoradiotherapy. DESIGN: Decision analytical modeling and a Markov simulation were used to model long-term costs, quality-adjusted life-years, and cost-effectiveness after watch and wait and radical surgery. Sensitivity analysis was used to investigate the effect of uncertainty in model parameters. SETTINGS: A third-party payer perspective was adopted. PATIENTS: Patients included in the study were a 60-year-old male cohort with no comorbidities, 80-year-old male cohorts with no comorbidities, and 80-year-old male cohorts with significant comorbidities. INTERVENTIONS: Radical surgery and watch-and-wait approaches were studied. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incremental cost, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness ratio over the entire lifetime of the hypothetical patient cohorts were measured. RESULTS: Watch and wait was more effective (60-year-old male cohort with no comorbidities = 0.63 quality-adjusted life-years (95% CI, 2.48-3.65 quality-adjusted life-years); 80-year-old male cohort with no comorbidities = 0.56 quality-adjusted life-years (95% CI, 0.52-1.59 quality-adjusted life-years); 80-year-old male cohort with significant comorbidities = 0.72 quality-adjusted life-years (95% CI, 0.34-1.76 quality-adjusted life-years)) and less costly (60-year-old male cohort with no comorbidities = $11,332.35 (95% CI, $668.50-$23,970.20); 80-year-old male cohort with no comorbidities = $8783.93 (95% CI, $2504.26-$21,900.66); 80-year-old male cohort with significant comorbidities = $10,206.01 (95% CI, $2762.014-$24,135.31)) independent of patient cohort age and comorbidity. Consequently, watch and wait was more cost-effective with a high degree of certainty (range, 69.6%-89.2%) at a threshold of $50,000/quality-adjusted life-year. LIMITATIONS: Long-term outcomes were derived from modeled cohorts. Analysis was performed for a United Kingdom third-party payer perspective, limiting generalizability to other healthcare contexts. CONCLUSIONS: Watch and wait is likely to be cost-effective compared with radical surgery. These findings strongly support the discussion of organ-preserving strategies with suitable patients.

Results from a Well-Being Survey in the North West of England: Inequalities in EQ-5D-Derived Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy Are Mainly Driven by Pain and Mental Health.

BACKGROUND: There is a growing body of evidence that once quality-of-life decrements are factored in, health inequalities become more prominent than using life expectancy alone. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to understand what the drivers were in inequalities in quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE). METHODS: This study used EuroQol five-dimensional (EQ-5D) questionnaire data from a large survey from the North West of England (N = 11,500), which were combined with population and mortality data from administrative datasets, to calculate estimated QALE by deprivation quintile. RESULTS: The gap in QALE between the most and least deprived quintiles was 16.8 years in males and 14.5 years in females. The gap in health-related quality of life between the rich and the poor was most prominent in males and in the age group of 55 to 64 years. People who live in the least deprived areas are less likely to show any level of problems across all five domains of the EQ-5D than those who live in the most deprived areas. People from the least deprived areas are less likely to have severe problems on two domains: pain (odds ratio = 0.45 [95% confidence interval 0.33-0.62]) and anxiety/depression (odds ratio = 0.3 [95% confidence interval 0.19-0.47]). CONCLUSIONS: This study has shown that, in the North West of England, inequalities in QALE are driven by pain and anxiety/depression.

Food hygiene, deprivation, types of premises and rates of gastrointestinal illnesses in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: To understand more about the relationship between economic deprivation, types of premises, food hygiene scores and rates of gastrointestinal illness in the UK. DESIGN: Data were extracted from the UK Food Standards Agency for about 300 000 UK premises which had hygiene scores based on visits from local authority food safety officers. These scores were analysed by type of premises, deprivation and local authority. Local authority-level average scores were mapped and compared with rates of laboratory-detected gastrointestinal illness from the Health Protection Agency. SETTING: UK. SUBJECTS: UK premises (n 311 458) from 341 local authority areas that sell or produce food. RESULTS: There was a modest but statistically significant relationship between average food hygiene score and deprivation, which was caused by deprived areas having more of the categories of premises with significantly lower hygiene scores; these were pub/club (n 40 525), restaurant/café/canteen (n 73 052), small retailer (n 42 932) and takeaway (n 36 708). No relationship was established between local authority average food hygiene scores and rates of laboratory-detected gastrointestinal illness; however, this result does not preclude a relationship between food hygiene and rates of gastrointestinal illnesses, as laboratory-detected illness rates make up only a small proportion of actual rates of illness in the community. CONCLUSIONS: Certain types of UK premises are more likely to have low hygiene scores, which means that they should be targeted more for enforcement. These types of premises are more prevalent in the most economically deprived areas.

Improving young patient - practitioner communication about sexual health during medical visits.

OBJECTIVES: Young people face barriers that lead to gaps in sexual and reproductive health care communications. Issues such as discomfort discussing sexual health lead to inadequate delivery of services resulting in unintended pregnancies and STIs. Closing this communication gap between patients and health care practitioners would improve communication and health outcomes. The objective of this study was to gain feedback from focus groups about: (a) barriers and facilitators to communication surrounding sexual health and (b) the feasibility and acceptability of a question prompt list (QPL) and informational video emphasizing asking questions about sexual health during medical visits as tools young people could use to be more involved during visits. METHODS: Three focus groups were conducted: two with young adults (n=14) and one with practitioners (n=5) of sexual/reproductive health care services. Practitioners were recruited from healthcare clinics. RESULTS: Young adults were aged 18-22 years old. Participants identified barriers to communication such as embarrassment over sexual health topics and practitioner assumptions about patients' base of knowledge. A facilitator to communication was patient-friendly language. Focus group participants offered suggestions on how to improve the QPL as well as themes that should be covered in an educational video. Participants viewed the QPL and educational video as useful for encouraging conversations between patient and practitioner. CONCLUSIONS: Many barriers obstruct communication between young adults and practitioners on topics relating to sexual health. Both the QPL and an educational video could be used to enhance patient-practitioner communication.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a web-based cardiac rehabilitation programme for people with chronic stable angina: protocol for the ACTIVATE (Angina Controlled Trial Investigating the Value of the 'Activate your heart' Therapeutic E-intervention) randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic stable angina is common and disabling. Cardiac rehabilitation is routinely offered to people following myocardial infarction or revascularisation procedures and has the potential to help people with chronic stable angina. However, there is insufficient evidence of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness for its routine use in this patient group. The objectives of this study are to compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the 'Activate Your Heart' cardiac rehabilitation programme for people with chronic stable angina compared with usual care. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: ACTIVATE is a multicentre, parallel-group, two-arm, superiority, pragmatic randomised controlled trial, with recruitment from primary and secondary care centres in England and Wales and a target sample size of 518 (1:1 allocation; allocation sequence by minimisation programme with built-in random element). The study uses secure web-based allocation concealment. The two treatments will be optimal usual care (control) and optimal usual care plus the 'Activate Your Heart' web-based cardiac rehabilitation programme (intervention). Outcome assessment and statistical analysis will be performed blinded; participants will be unblinded. Outcomes will be measured at baseline and at 6 and 12 months' follow-up. Primary outcome will be the UK version of Seattle Angina Questionnaire (SAQ-UK), physical limitations domain at 12 months' follow-up. Secondary outcomes will be the remaining two domains of SAQ-UK, dyspnoea, anxiety and depression, health utility, self-efficacy, physical activity and the incremental shuttle walk test. All safety events will be recorded, and serious adverse events assessed to determine whether they are related to the intervention and expected. Concurrent economic evaluation will be cost-utility analysis from health service perspective. An embedded process evaluation will determine the mechanisms and processes that explain the implementation and impacts of the cardiac rehabilitation programme. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: North of Scotland National Health Service Research Ethics Committee approval, reference 21/NS/0115. Participants will provide written informed consent. Results will be disseminated by peer-reviewed publication. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN10054455.

Using a survey to estimate health expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy to assess inequalities in health and quality of life.

BACKGROUND: There has been a policy debate in the United Kingdom about moving beyond traditional measures of life expectancy and economic output to developing more meaningful ways of measuring national well-being. OBJECTIVE: To test whether quality adjusted life expectancy (QALE) was a useful indicator of health inequalities. METHODS: EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire data from a well-being survey was combined with actuarial life expectancy (LE) data to estimate healthy LE (HLE), that is, years of life lived in good health, and QALE, that is, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lived for Wirral, a borough in the north west of England. RESULTS: The gap between Wirral and the most deprived areas was 4.45 years for LE, 5.34 for QALE, and 7.55 for HLE. The gap in QALE was 20% greater than the gap in LE, while the gap in HLE was 70% greater. CONCLUSIONS: The fact that the QALE gap value lies between the HLE value and the LE value suggests that QALE is a more sensitive indicator than HLE, as in this study QALE is derived from 243 possible EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire profiles whereas HLE is based only on whether or not an individual rates his or her health as good, a binary variable. This study discusses how QALE could be a useful indicator for measuring health inequalities in future, especially as cost utility and QALYs are seen as the gold standard used by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence in the United Kingdom to measure outcomes for health interventions in England, and discusses how a monetary valuation of QALYs could be used to put a societal cost on health inequalities.