Social Frailty Index: Development and validation of an index of social attributes predictive of mortality in older adults.

While social characteristics are well-known predictors of mortality, prediction models rely almost exclusively on demographics, medical comorbidities, and function. Lacking an efficient way to summarize the prognostic impact of social factor, many studies exclude social factors altogether. Our objective was to develop and validate a summary measure of social risk and determine its ability to risk-stratify beyond traditional risk models. We examined participants in the Health and Retirement Study, a longitudinal, survey of US older adults. We developed the model from a comprehensive inventory of 183 social characteristics using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, a penalized regression approach. Then, we assessed the predictive capacity of the model and its ability to improve on traditional prediction models. We studied 8,250 adults aged ≥65 y. Within 4 y of the baseline interview, 22% had died. Drawn from 183 possible predictors, the Social Frailty Index included age, gender, and eight social predictors: neighborhood cleanliness, perceived control over financial situation, meeting with children less than yearly, not working for pay, active with children, volunteering, feeling isolated, and being treated with less courtesy or respect. In the validation cohort, predicted and observed mortality were strongly correlated. Additionally, the Social Frailty Index meaningfully risk-stratified participants beyond the Charlson score (medical comorbidity index) and the Lee Index (comorbidity and function model). The Social Frailty Index includes age, gender, and eight social characteristics and accurately risk-stratifies older adults. The model improves upon commonly used risk prediction tools and has application in clinical, population health, and research settings.

"There's So Much That They're Enduring": Experiences of Older Adults Undergoing Major Elective Surgery.

OBJECTIVE: This qualitative study aimed to explore the psychosocial experience of older adults undergoing major elective surgery from the perspective of both the patient and family caregiver. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Older adults face unique psychological and social vulnerabilities that can increase susceptibility to poor health outcomes. How these vulnerabilities influence surgical treatment and recovery is understudied in the geriatric surgical population. METHODS: Adults aged 65 and older undergoing a high-risk major elective surgery at the University of California, San Francisco and their caregivers were recruited. Semi-structured interviews were conducted at three time points: 1-2 weeks before surgery, and at 1- and 3-months following surgery. An inductive qualitative approach was used to identify underlying themes. RESULTS: Twenty-five older adult patients (age range 65-82 years, 60% male) and 11 caregivers (age range 53-78 years, 82% female) participated. Three themes were identified. First, older surgical patients experienced significant challenges to emotional well-being both before and after surgery, which had a negative impact on recovery. Second, older adults relied on a combination of personal and social resources to navigate these challenges. Lastly, both patients and caregivers desired more resources from the healthcare system to address "the emotional piece" of surgical treatment and recovery. CONCLUSIONS: Older adults and their caregivers described multiple overlapping challenges to emotional well-being that spanned the course of the perioperative period. Our findings highlight a critical component of perioperative care with significant implications for the recovery of older surgical patients.

One-Year Recovery Among Survivors of Prolonged Severe COVID-19: A National Multicenter Cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Understanding the long-term effects of severe COVID-19 illness on survivors is essential for effective pandemic recovery planning. Therefore, we investigated impairments among hospitalized adults discharged to long-term acute care hospitals (LTACHs) for prolonged severe COVID-19 illness who survived 1 year. DESIGN: The Recovery After Transfer to an LTACH for COVID-19 (RAFT COVID) study was a national, multicenter, prospective longitudinal cohort study. SETTING AND PATIENTS: We included hospitalized English-speaking adults transferred to one of nine LTACHs in the United States between March 2020 and February 2021 and completed a survey. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Validated instruments for impairments and free response questions about recovering. Among 282 potentially eligible participants who provided permission to be contacted, 156 (55.3%) participated (median age, 65; 38.5% female; 61.3% in good prior health; median length of stay of 57 d; 77% mechanically ventilated for a median of 26 d; 42% had a tracheostomy). Approximately two-thirds (64%) had a persistent impairment, including physical (57%), respiratory (49%; 19% on supplemental oxygen), psychiatric (24%), and cognitive impairments (15%). Nearly half (47%) had two or more impairment types. Participants also experienced persistent debility from hospital-acquired complications, including mononeuropathies and pressure ulcers. Participants described protracted recovery, attributing improvements to exercise/rehabilitation, support, and time. While considered life-altering with 78.7% not returning to their usual health, participants expressed gratitude for recovering; 99% returned home and 60% of previously employed individuals returned to work. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly two-thirds of survivors of among the most prolonged severe COVID-19 illness had persistent impairments at 1 year that resembled post-intensive care syndrome after critical illness plus debility from hospital-acquired complications.

The Epidemiology of Smoking in Older Adults: A National Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Older smokers account for the greatest tobacco-related morbidity and mortality in the USA, while quitting smoking remains the single most effective preventive health intervention for reducing the risk of smoking-related illness. Yet, knowledge about patterns of smoking and smoking cessation in older adults is lacking. OBJECTIVE: Assess trends in prevalence of cigarette smoking between 1998 and 2018 and identify patterns and predictors of smoking cessation in US older adults. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged 55+ enrolled in the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study, 1998-2018 MAIN MEASURES: Current smoking was assessed with the question: "Do you smoke cigarettes now?" Quitting smoking was defined as having at least two consecutive waves (between 2 and 4 years) in which participants who were current smokers in 1998 reported they were not currently smoking in subsequent waves. KEY RESULTS: Age-adjusted smoking prevalence decreased from 15.9% in 1998 (95% confidence interval (CI) 15.2, 16.7) to 11.2% in 2018 (95% CI 10.4, 12.1). Among 2187 current smokers in 1998 (mean age 64, 56% female), 56% of those living to age 90 had a sustained period of smoking cessation. Smoking less than 10 cigarettes/day was strongly associated with an increased likelihood of quitting smoking (subdistribution hazard ratio 2.3; 95% CI 1.9, 2.8), compared to those who smoked more than 20 cigarettes/day. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking prevalence among older persons has declined and substantial numbers of older smokers succeed in quitting smoking for a sustained period. These findings highlight the need for continued aggressive efforts at tobacco cessation among older persons.

High Risk of Substance Use Disorder-Related Outcomes in Veterans Released from Correctional Facilities in Mid to Late Life.

BACKGROUND: Veterans Affairs (VA) is likely to encounter a growing number of veterans returning to the community in mid to late life following incarceration (i.e., experiencing reentry). Yet, rates of negative health outcomes due to substance use disorders (SUDs) in this population are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine risk of and risk factors for SUD-related emergency department visits and inpatient hospitalizations (ED/IPH) and overdose death among older reentry veterans compared with never-incarcerated veterans. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using national VA and Medicare healthcare systems data. PARTICIPANTS: Veterans age ≥50, incarcerated for ≤5 consecutive years, and released between October 1, 2010, and September 30, 2017 (N = 18,803), were propensity score-matched 1:5 with never-incarcerated veterans (N = 94,015) on demographic characteristics, reason for Medicare eligibility, and SUD history. MAIN MEASURES: SUD-related ED/IPH (overall and substance-specific) were obtained from in-/outpatient VA health services and CMS data within the year following release date/index date (through September 30, 2018). Overdose death within 1 year was identified using the National Mortality Data Repository. Fine-Gray proportional hazards regression compared risk of SUD-related ED/IPH and overdose death between the two groups. RESULTS: The number of SUD-related ED/IPHs and overdose deaths was 2470 (13.1%) and 72 (0.38%) in the reentry sample versus 4402 (4.7%) and 198 (0.21%) in the never-incarcerated sample, respectively. Mid-to-late-life reentry was associated with higher risk of any SUD-related ED/IPH (13,136.2 vs. 2252.8 per 100,000/year; adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 2.19; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.08, 2.30) and overdose death (382.9 vs. 210.6 per 100,000/year; AHR = 2.24, 95% CI = 1.63, 3.08). CONCLUSIONS: Older reentry veterans have more than double the risk of experiencing SUD-related ED/IPH (overall and substance-specific) and overdose death, even after accounting for SUD history and other likely confounders. These findings highlight the vulnerability of this population. Improved knowledge regarding SUD-related negative health outcomes may help to tailor VA reentry programming.

Health care utilization and costs in the years preceding dementia identification.

INTRODUCTION: There is evidence that health care utilization increases after incident dementia, particularly after dementia diagnosis and toward the end of life; however, less is known about utilization in the years before dementia identification. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study we obtained data on n = 5547 beneficiaries from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS)-Medicare linked sample (n = 1241 with and n = 4306 without dementia) to compare longitudinal trends in health care costs and utilization in the 6 years preceding dementia identification relative to a confounder-balanced reference group without dementia. RESULTS: We found that persons with dementia had a greater prevalence of outpatient emergency department (ED), inpatient hospital, skilled nursing, and home health use, and total health care costs in the years preceding dementia identification compared to their similar counterparts without dementia across a comparable timespan in later life. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence to suggest greater healthcare burden may exist well before clinical manifestation and identification of dementia. HIGHLIGHTS: Several studies have documented the tremendous healthcare-related costs of living with dementia, particularly toward the end of life. Dementia is a progressive neurodegenerative disease, which, for some, includes a prolonged pre-clinical phase. However, health services research to date has seldom considered the time before incident dementia. This study documents that health care utilization and costs are significantly elevated in the years before incident dementia relative to a demographically-similar comparison group without dementia.

Physical inactivity in older adults with cognitive impairment without dementia: room for improvement.

BACKGROUND: Persons with cognitive impairment without dementia are at high risk of adverse health outcomes. Tailored intervention targeting moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) may reduce these risks. AIMS: To identify the prevalence and predictors of physical inactivity among older adults with cognitive impairment, no dementia (CIND); and estimate the proportion of inactive people with CIND who are capable of greater MVPA. METHODS: We studied 1875 community dwelling participants (over age 65) with CIND in the Health and Retirement Study. Physical inactivity was defined as MVPA ≤ 1x/week. Associations of physical inactivity with sociodemographic, health, and physical function were examined using chi-square and modified Poisson regression. We considered physically inactive participants capable of greater MVPA if they reported MVPA at least 1-3x/month, no difficulty walking several blocks, or no difficulty climbing several flights of stairs. RESULTS: Fifty-six percent of participants with CIND were physically inactive. Variables with the highest age, sex, and race/ethnicity adjusted risk ratio (ARR) for physical inactivity were self-rated health (poor [76.9%]vs. excellent [34.2%]; ARR [95% CI] 2.27 [1.56-3.30]), difficulty walking (across the room [86.5%] vs. none [40.5%]; ARR [95% CI] 2.09 [1.87-2.35]), total assets (lowest quartile [62.6%] vs. highest quartile [43.1%]; ARR [95% CI] 1.54 [1.29-1.83]), and lower education attainment (less than high school [59.6%] vs college graduate [42.8%]; ARR [95% CI] 1.46 [1.17-1.83]). Among physically inactive older adults with CIND, 61% were estimated to be capable of greater MVPA. CONCLUSIONS: Although physical inactivity is prevalent among older adults with CIND, many are capable of greater MVPA. Developing tailored physical activity interventions for this vulnerable population may improve cognitive, health, and quality of life outcomes.

A Novel Metric for Developing Easy-to-Use and Accurate Clinical Prediction Models: The Time-cost Information Criterion.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend that clinicians use clinical prediction models to estimate future risk to guide decisions. For example, predicted fracture risk is a major factor in the decision to initiate bisphosphonate medications. However, current methods for developing prediction models often lead to models that are accurate but difficult to use in clinical settings. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to develop and test whether a new metric that explicitly balances model accuracy with clinical usability leads to accurate, easier-to-use prediction models. METHODS: We propose a new metric called the Time-cost Information Criterion (TCIC) that will penalize potential predictor variables that take a long time to obtain in clinical settings. To demonstrate how the TCIC can be used to develop models that are easier-to-use in clinical settings, we use data from the 2000 wave of the Health and Retirement Study (n=6311) to develop and compare time to mortality prediction models using a traditional metric (Bayesian Information Criterion or BIC) and the TCIC. RESULTS: We found that the TCIC models utilized predictors that could be obtained more quickly than BIC models while achieving similar discrimination. For example, the TCIC identified a 7-predictor model with a total time-cost of 44 seconds, while the BIC identified a 7-predictor model with a time-cost of 119 seconds. The Harrell C-statistic of the TCIC and BIC 7-predictor models did not differ (0.7065 vs. 0.7088, P=0.11). CONCLUSION: Accounting for the time-costs of potential predictor variables through the use of the TCIC led to the development of an easier-to-use mortality prediction model with similar discrimination.

Life satisfaction among older adults with impairment in activities of daily living.

BACKGROUND: Many older adults experience decline in function, but maintain high levels of life satisfaction. The factors associated with high life satisfaction among those with functional impairment are not well understood. OBJECTIVE: Examine the proportion of older adults with functional impairment reporting high life satisfaction and the predictors of high life satisfaction. DESIGN: Cross-sectional cohort study. SETTING: Health and Retirement Study. SUBJECTS: A total of 7,287 community-dwelling participants, 65 years or older, who completed the leave-behind questionnaire in 2014 or 2016. METHODS: The main predictor was having difficulty or needing help in performing Activities of Daily Living (ADL). The primary outcome was reporting high life satisfaction, defined using a three-item Diener scale. Significant factors were identified using modified Poisson regression models adjusted for demographic characteristics. RESULTS: Those with no ADL impairment were more likely to report high levels of life satisfaction than those with ADL difficulty or ADL dependence (54.4 vs 38.6 vs 27.6%, P < 0.001). Among those with ADL dependence, we identified several factors associated with high life satisfaction, including: not being lonely (38.2 vs 23.2%, ARR = 1.6 (1.2, 2.2)), satisfied with family life (35.1 vs 12.8%, ARR = 2.7 (1.6, 4.4)), and satisfied with financial situation (40.8 vs 16.6%, ARR = 2.5 (1.8, 3.6)). Similar associations were present among those with ADL difficulty. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of older adults with ADL impairment report high life satisfaction, and it is associated with social and economic well-being. Understanding the factors associated with high life satisfaction can lead to clinical practices and policy guidelines that promote life satisfaction in older adults.

A fuller picture of COVID-19 prognosis: the added value of vulnerability measures to predict mortality in hospitalised older adults.

BACKGROUND: Although coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disproportionally affects older adults, the use of conventional triage tools in acute care settings ignores the key aspects of vulnerability. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the usefulness of adding a rapid vulnerability screening to an illness acuity tool to predict mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Large university hospital dedicated to providing COVID-19 care. PARTICIPANTS: Participants included are 1,428 consecutive inpatients aged ≥50 years. METHODS: Vulnerability was assessed using the modified version of PRO-AGE score (0-7; higher = worse), a validated and easy-to-administer tool that rates physical impairment, recent hospitalisation, acute mental change, weight loss and fatigue. The baseline covariates included age, sex, Charlson comorbidity score and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), a well-known illness acuity tool. Our outcome was time-to-death within 60 days of admission. RESULTS: The patients had a median age of 66 years, and 58% were male. The incidence of 60-day mortality ranged from 22% to 69% across the quartiles of modified PRO-AGE. In adjusted analysis, compared with modified PRO-AGE scores 0-1 ('lowest quartile'), the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for 60-day mortality for modified PRO-AGE scores 2-3, 4 and 5-7 were 1.4 (1.1-1.9), 2.0 (1.5-2.7) and 2.8 (2.1-3.8), respectively. The modified PRO-AGE predicted different mortality risk levels within each stratum of NEWS and improved the discrimination of mortality prediction models. CONCLUSIONS: Adding vulnerability to illness acuity improved accuracy of predicting mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients. Combining tools such as PRO-AGE and NEWS may help stratify the risk of mortality from COVID-19.

Association of Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting vs Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Memory Decline in Older Adults Undergoing Coronary Revascularization.

Importance: It is uncertain whether coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is associated with cognitive decline in older adults compared with a nonsurgical method of coronary revascularization (percutaneous coronary intervention [PCI]). Objective: To compare the change in the rate of memory decline after CABG vs PCI. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study of community-dwelling participants in the Health and Retirement Study, who underwent CABG or PCI between 1998 and 2015 at age 65 years or older. Data were modeled for up to 5 years preceding and 10 years following revascularization or until death, drop out, or the 2016-2017 interview wave. The date of final follow-up was November 2017. Exposures: CABG (including on and off pump) or PCI, ascertained from Medicare fee-for-service billing records. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a summary measure of cognitive test scores and proxy cognition reports that were performed biennially in the Health and Retirement Study, referred to as memory score, normalized as a z score (ie, mean of 0, SD of 1 in a reference population of adults aged ≥72 years). Memory score was analyzed using multivariable linear mixed-effects models, with a prespecified subgroup analysis of on-pump and off-pump CABG. The minimum clinically important difference was a change of 1 SD of the population-level rate of memory decline (0.048 memory units/y). Results: Of 1680 participants (mean age at procedure, 75 years; 41% female), 665 underwent CABG (168 off pump) and 1015 underwent PCI. In the PCI group, the mean rate of memory decline was 0.064 memory units/y (95% CI, 0.052 to 0.078) before the procedure and 0.060 memory units/y (95% CI, 0.048 to 0.071) after the procedure (within-group change, 0.004 memory units/y [95% CI, -0.010 to 0.018]). In the CABG group, the mean rate of memory decline was 0.049 memory units/y (95% CI, 0.033 to 0.065) before the procedure and 0.059 memory units/y (95% CI, 0.047 to 0.072) after the procedure (within-group change, -0.011 memory units/y [95% CI, -0.029 to 0.008]). The between-group difference-in-differences estimate for memory decline for PCI vs CABG was 0.015 memory units/y (95% CI, -0.008 to 0.038; P = .21). There was statistically significant increase in the rate of memory decline after off-pump CABG compared with after PCI (difference-in-differences: mean increase in the rate of decline of 0.046 memory units/y [95% CI, 0.008 to 0.084] after off-pump CABG), but not after on-pump CABG compared with PCI (difference-in-differences: mean slowing of decline of 0.003 memory units/y [95% CI, -0.024 to 0.031] after on-pump CABG). Conclusions and Relevance: Among older adults undergoing coronary revascularization with CABG or PCI, the type of revascularization procedure was not significantly associated with differences in the change of rate of memory decline.

Advance Care Planning Prior to Death in Older Adults with Hip Fracture.

BACKGROUND: Although hip fractures in older adults are associated with a high degree of mortality and disability, the use of advance care planning (ACP) in this population is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of ACP and need for surrogate decision-making prior to death in older adults with hip fracture and to identify factors associated with ACP. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using Health and Retirement Study (HRS) interviews linked to Medicare fee-for-service claims data. PARTICIPANTS: Six hundred six decedent participants aged 65 or older who sustained a hip fracture during HRS enrollment and had a proxy participate in the exit HRS survey. MAIN MEASURES: Survey responses by proxies were used to determine ACP, defined by either advance directive completion or surrogate designation, and to assess decision-making at the end of life. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze correlates of ACP. KEY RESULTS: Prior to death, 54.9% of all participants had an advance directive and 68.9% had designated a surrogate decision-maker; however, 24.5% had no ACP. Of the total cohort, 32.5% required decisions to be made about treatment at the end of life and lacked capacity to make these decisions themselves. In this subset, 19.9% had no ACP. In all participants, ACP was less likely in non-white individuals (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.14, 95% CI 0.06-0.31), those with less than a high school education (aOR 0.58, 95% CI 0.35-0.97), and those with a net worth below the median of the cohort (aOR 0.49, 95% CI 0.26-0.72). No clinical factors were found to be associated with ACP completion prior to death. CONCLUSIONS: A considerable number of older adults with hip fracture required surrogate decision-making at the end of life, of whom one fifth had no ACP prior to death. Clinicians providing care for these patients are uniquely poised to address ACP.

Patient-reported measures of well-being in older multiple myeloma patients: use of secondary data source.

BACKGROUND: Changes in well-being of patients with multiple myeloma (MM) before and after diagnosis have not been quantified. AIMS: Explore the use of secondary data to examine the changes in the well-being of older patients with MM. METHODS: We used the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), linked to Medicare claims to identify older MM patients. We compared patient-reported measures (PRM), including physical impairment, sensory impairment, and patient experience (significant pain, self-rated health, depression) in the interviews before and after MM diagnosis using McNemar's test. We propensity-matched each MM patient to five HRS participants without MM diagnosis based on baseline characteristics. We compared the change in PRM between the MM patients and their matches. RESULTS: We identified 92 HRS patients with MM diagnosis (mean age = 74.6, SD = 8.4). Among the surviving patients, there was a decline in well-being across most measures, including ADL difficulty (23% to 40%, p value = 0.016), poor or fair self-rated health (38% to 61%, p value = 0.004), and depression (15% to 30%, p value = 0.021). Surviving patients reported worse health than participants without MM across most measures, including ADL difficulty (40% vs. 27%, p value = 0.04), significant pain (38% vs. 22%, p value = 0.01), and depression (29% vs. 11%, p value = 0.003). DISCUSSION: Secondary data were used to identify patients with MM diagnosis, and examine changes across multiple measures of well-being. MM diagnosis negatively affects several aspects of patients' well-being, and these declines are larger than those experienced by similar participants without MM. CONCLUSION: The results of this study are valuable addition to understanding the experience of patients with MM, despite several data limitations.

Expectations and Concerns of Older Adults With Cognitive Impairment About Their Relationship With Medical Providers: A Call for Therapeutic Alliances.

We sought to understand the expectations and concerns of older adults with cognitive impairment with regard to their relationship with medical providers. In particular, we observed whether study participants were involved in therapeutic alliances. Medical providers and patients create therapeutic alliances when they agree on the goals of the treatment and share a personal bond. Whereas such alliances have been studied in cancer research, little is known about therapeutic alliances in dementia research. Data were gathered in a qualitative study of 27 older adults with cognitive impairment and analyzed with narrative analysis. We introduce four case studies that illustrate the effects of having or missing a therapeutic alliance. Whereas the participant in the first case benefited from a therapeutic alliance, the other cases are marked by different experiences of abandonment. Findings suggest that interventions should concentrate on ways to enhance the relationship between medical providers and patients with cognitive impairment.

Caring community and relationship centred care on an end-stage dementia special care unit.

BACKGROUND: of the estimated 1.4 million residents of US nursing homes, over half have dementia. In the final stages of dementia, caregiving is complicated by the inability of care recipients to speak intelligibly or express their needs. AIM: to examine the ways in which a nursing home end-stage dementia special care unit (SCU) functioned as a caring community for people near the end of life. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: a qualitative, ethnographic case study was conducted in a highly-regarded SCU. Over 175 hours of scheduled activity observations were completed over 2 years, bolstered by 30 hours of caregiving observations on the end-stage dementia unit and 19 interviews with SCU carers. Inductive coding was completed independently by two researchers, emerging themes reconciled by consensus, and qualitative analysis conducted iteratively until the endpoint of thematic saturation. FINDINGS: on the SCU, employees and volunteers fostered relationships based upon a model of family. They formed a caring community that included professionals, volunteers, friends and family. Relationships were supported through (1) the use of reminiscence to evoke intact long-term memories, (2) the use of verbal communication long after care-recipients could no longer speak and (3) the use of intentional nonverbal communication, including daily music, pet visits, and sensory stimulation. CONCLUSIONS: through detailed examination of daily life, this study identified articulated beliefs and observable behaviour through which to develop relationship-centred care in the context of end-stage dementia. The caring community offers primary source data for the development of mid-level theory and the generation of new hypotheses.

Physical frailty after liver transplantation.

Frailty is prevalent in liver transplant candidates, but little is known of what happens to frailty after liver transplantation. We analyzed data for 214 adult liver transplant recipients who had ≥1 frailty assessment using the Liver Frailty Index (LFI) at 3- (n = 178), 6- (n = 139), or 12- (n = 107) months posttransplant (higher values=more frail). "Frail" and "robust" were defined as LFI ≥4.5 and <3.2. Median pre-liver transplant LFI was 3.7, and was worse at 3 months (3.9; P = .02), similar at 6 months (3.7; P = .07), and improved at 12 months (3.4; P < .001). The percentage who were robust pre- and 3-, 6-, and 12-months posttransplant were 25%, 14%, 28%, and 37%; the percentage frail were 21%, 21%, 10%, and 7%. In univariable analysis, each 0.1 pretransplant LFI point more frail was associated with a decreased odds of being robust at 3- (odds ratio [OR] 0.75), 6- (OR 0.77), and 12-months (OR 0.90) posttransplant (P ≤ .001), which did not change substantially with multivariable adjustment. In conclusion, frailty worsens 3 months posttransplant and improves modestly by 12 months, but fewer than 2 of 5 patients achieve robustness. Pretransplant LFI was a potent predictor of posttransplant robustness. Aggressive interventions aimed at preventing frailty pretransplant are urgently needed to maximize physical health after liver transplantation.

The Liver Frailty Index Improves Mortality Prediction of the Subjective Clinician Assessment in Patients With Cirrhosis.

OBJECTIVES: Frailty, a critical determinant of health outcomes, is most commonly assessed in patients with cirrhosis by general clinician assessment that is limited by its subjectivity. We aimed to compare the objective Liver Frailty Index (LFI), consisting of three performance-based tests (grip, chair stands, balance), with a subjective hepatologist assessment. METHODS: Outpatients with cirrhosis awaiting liver transplantation (LT) underwent: (1) objective measurement using the LFI and (2) subjective clinician assessment. Spearman's correlation assessed associations between the LFI and clinician assessment; Cox regression with waitlist mortality (death/delisting for sickness); discriminative ability with Concordance(C) statistics. The net reclassification index evaluated the percentage of patients correctly reclassified by adding the LFI to the clinician assessment. RESULTS: Of the 529 patients with cirrhosis, median LFI was 3.8 (range 1.0-7.0) and clinician assessment was 3 (range 0-5). Correlation between LFI and the clinician assessment was modest (ρ=0.38) with high variability by hepatologist (ρ=0.26-0.70). At a median of 11 months, 102 (19%) died/were delisted. Both the LFI (hazard ratio (HR) 2.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.7-2.9) and clinician assessment (HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.3-1.9) were associated with adjusted waitlist mortality risk (P<0.01). The addition of the LFI to the clinician assessment significantly improved mortality prediction over the clinician assessment alone (0.74 vs. 0.68; P=0.02). Compared with the clinician assessment alone, the addition of the LFI correctly reclassified 34% (95% CI 8-53%) of patients to their correct survival status. CONCLUSION: The subjective clinician assessment can predict waitlist mortality in patients with cirrhosis but is subjective and variable by hepatologist. The addition of the LFI to the subjective clinician assessment significantly improved mortality risk prediction, reclassifying 34% of patients. Our data strongly support the incorporation of the objective LFI to anchor our assessments of patients with cirrhosis to enhance our decision-making.

Development of a novel frailty index to predict mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease.

Cirrhosis is characterized by muscle wasting, malnutrition, and functional decline that confer excess mortality not well quantified by the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) Sodium (MELDNa) score. We aimed to develop a frailty index to capture these extrahepatic complications of cirrhosis and enhance mortality prediction in patients with cirrhosis. Consecutive outpatients listed for liver transplantation at a single transplant center without MELD exceptions were assessed with candidate frailty measures. Best subset selection analyses with Cox regression identified subsets of frailty measures that predicted waitlist mortality (=death or delisting because of sickness). We selected the frailty index by balancing statistical accuracy with clinical utility. The net reclassification index (NRI) evaluated the %patients correctly reclassified by adding the frailty index to MELDNa. Included were 536 patients with cirrhosis with median MELDNa of 18. One hundred seven (20%) died/were delisted. The final frailty index consisted of: grip strength, chair stands, and balance. The ability of MELDNa and the frailty index to correctly rank patients according to their 3-month waitlist mortality risk (i.e., concordance-statistic) was 0.80 and 0.76, respectively, but 0.82 for MELDNa+frailty index together. Compared with MELDNa alone, MELDNa+frailty index correctly reclassified 16% of deaths/delistings (P = 0.005) and 3% of nondeaths/delistings (P = 0.17) with a total NRI of 19% (P < 0.001). Compared to those with robust frailty index scores (<20th percentile), cirrhotics with poor frailty index scores (>80th percentile) were more impaired by gait speed, difficulty with Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, exhaustion, and low physical activity (P < 0.001 for each). CONCLUSION: Our frailty index for patients with cirrhosis, comprised of three performance-based metrics, has construct validity for the concept of frailty and improves risk prediction of waitlist mortality over MELDNa alone. (Hepatology 2017;66:564-574).

Increased Risk of Suicide Attempts and Unintended Death Among Those Transitioning From Prison to Community in Later Life.

OBJECTIVE: The number of individuals transitioning from correctional facilities to community in later life (age ≥50 ) is increasing. We sought to determine if later-life prison release is a risk factor for suicidal behavior and death by accidental injury, including drug overdose. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and Medicare healthcare systems, 2012-2014. PARTICIPANTS: Veterans age ≥50 released from correctional facilities (N = 7,671 re-entry veterans) and those never incarcerated (N = 7,671). METHODS: Dates of suicide attempt and cause-specific mortality defined using the National Suicide Prevention Applications Network and the National Suicide Data Repository, respectively. RESULTS: Later-life prison release was associated with increased risk of suicide attempt (599.7 versus 134.7 per 100,000 per year; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 3.45; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.24-5.32; p < 0.001, Wald χ2 = 31.58, degrees of freedom [df] = 1), death by drug overdose (121.7 versus 43.5; adjusted HR 3.45; 95% CI 1.37-8.73; p = 0.009, Wald χ2 = 6.86, df = 1), and other accidental injury (126.0 versus 39.1; adjusted HR 3.13; 95% CI 1.28-7.69; p = 0.013, Wald χ2 = 6.25, df = 1), adjusting for homelessness, traumatic brain injury, medical and psychiatric conditions, and accounting for competing risk of other deaths. Suicide mortality rates were observed as nonsignificant between re-entry veterans and those never incarcerated (30.4 versus 17.4, respectively; adjusted HR 2.40; 95% CI 0.51-11.24; p = 0.266, Wald χ2 = 1.23, df = 1). CONCLUSION: Older re-entry veterans are at considerable risk of attempting suicide and dying by drug overdose or other accidental injury. This study highlights importance of prevention and intervention efforts targeting later-life prison-to-community care transitions.

Disability in patients with end-stage liver disease: Results from the functional assessment in liver transplantation study.

Cirrhosis leads to sarcopenia and functional decline that can severely impact one's ability to function at home and in society. Self-reported disability scales to quantify disability-Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL)-are validated to predict mortality in older adults. To evaluate disability in liver transplantation (LT) candidates and quantify its impact on outcomes, consecutive outpatients ≥18 years listed for LT with laboratory Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores of ≥12 at a single high-volume US LT center were assessed for ADLs and IADLs during clinic visits. Multivariate competing risk models explored the effect of disabilities on wait-list mortality (death or delisting for illness). Of 458 patients, 36% were women, median (interquartile range [IQR]) age was 60 years (IQR, 54-64 years), and initial Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) was 17 (IQR 14-20). At first visit, 31% had lost ≥ 1 ADL, and 40% had lost ≥ 1 IADL. The most prevalent ADL deficits lost were continence (22%), dressing (12%), and transferring (11%); the most prevalent IADLs lost were shopping (28%), food preparation (23%), and medication management (22%). After adjustment for age, MELD-Na, and encephalopathy, dressing (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR], 1.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-2.8; P = 0.04), toileting (SHR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.5; P = 0.03), transferring (SHR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.0; P = 0.009), housekeeping (SHR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2-3.0; P = 0.009), and laundry (SHR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.3-3.5; P = 0.002) remained independent predictors of wait-list mortality. In conclusion, ADL/IADL deficits are common in LT candidates. LT candidates would benefit from chronic disease management programs developed to address the impact of cirrhosis on their daily lives. Liver Transplantation 23 292-298 2017 AASLD.