Range expansion of Dermacentor variabilis and Dermacentor andersoni (Acari: Ixodidae) near their northern distributional limits.

Distributional ranges of the ticks Dermacentor andersoni Stiles and Dermacentor variabilis (Say) in the Canadian Prairies were determined by passive surveillance and active collection. These findings were compared with historical records of both species, particularly in the province of Saskatchewan, where the northern distributional limits of both tick species occur. Before the 1960s, D. variabilis and D. andersoni were allopatric in Saskatchewan; however, since then, the distribution of D. variabilis has expanded westward and northward. Although the range of D. andersoni has remained relatively stable, range expansion of D. variabilis has resulted in a zone of sympatry at least 200 km wide. Twenty-nine species of mammals and three species of birds were identified as hosts for different life stages of these ticks.

Predicting weekly variation of Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae) West Nile virus infection in a newly endemic region, the Canadian prairies.

West Nile virus (WNV) spread across most of North America within a short time period after its incursion into the Western Hemisphere. The Canadian prairies had the highest human incidence of WNV disease in Canada, particularly in 2007. Statistical modeling and geographic information systems can be used to develop a predictive model and facilitate the mobilization of targeted disease management strategies. Using data collected between 2005 and 2008, we constructed models integrating abiotic and biotic factors to predict the WNV infection rate in female Culex tarsalis Coquillett, the primary vector of WNV in the Canadian prairies. During the study period, the highest mean Cx. tarsalis infection rate was during week 34 (late August). The Cx. tarsalis infection rate increased with increasing Cx. tarsalis abundance and mean temperature lagged from 1 to 8 wk, but decreased with increasing mean precipitation lagged from 2 to 6 wk. Furthermore, precipitation was a 'distorter variable' that altered the association between Cx. tarsalis abundance and the WNV infection rate. Our model clarified how weather influenced the Cx. tarsalis infection rate in the Canadian prairies, a newly and highly WNV endemic region of North America. An understanding of the role of lagged weather variables was essential for providing sufficient lead time to predict WNV occurrence, and for implementing disease control and prevention strategies. Furthermore, it is a useful tool for assessing the potential effects of future climate change on WNV in areas near its northern distributional limit.

Passive and Active Surveillance for Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in Saskatchewan, Canada.

Passive and active surveillance for the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan was conducted over a 9-yr period (2009-2017). More than 26,000 ixodid ticks, representing 10 species, were submitted through passive surveillance. Most (97%) of these were the American dog tick, Dermacentor variabilis (Say). Of the 65 I. scapularis adults submitted, 75% were collected from dogs. Infection rates of Borrelia burgdorferi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Babesia microti in I. scapularis were 12%, 8%, and 0%, respectively. Although the I. scapularis submitted by passive surveillance were collected from five of seven ecoregions in central and southern Saskatchewan, they were most frequent in the Moist Mixed Grassland and Aspen Parklands. In contrast, no I. scapularis were collected from the extensive field sampling conducted at multiple sites in different ecoregions across the province. Hence, there is no evidence of I. scapularis having established a breeding population in Saskatchewan. Nonetheless, continued surveillance for blacklegged ticks is warranted given their important role as a vector of medically and veterinary important pathogens, and because they have recently become established across much of the southern portions of the neighboring province of Manitoba.

Climate change and West Nile virus in a highly endemic region of North America.

The Canadian prairie provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta have reported the highest human incidence of clinical cases of West Nile virus (WNV) infection in Canada. The primary vector for WVN in this region is the mosquito Culex tarsalis. This study used constructed models and biological thresholds to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of Cx. tarsalis and WNV infection rate in the prairie provinces under a range of potential future climate and habitat conditions. We selected one median and two extreme outcome scenarios to represent future climate conditions in the 2020 (2010-2039), 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099) time slices. In currently endemic regions, the projected WNV infection rate under the median outcome scenario in 2050 raised 17.91 times (ranged from 1.29-27.45 times for all scenarios and time slices) comparing to current climate conditions. Seasonal availability of Cx. tarsalis infected with WNV extended from June to August to include May and September. Moreover, our models predicted northward range expansion for Cx. tarsalis (1.06-2.56 times the current geographic area) and WNV (1.08-2.34 times the current geographic area). These findings predict future public and animal health risk of WNV in the Canadian prairie provinces.

Modeling monthly variation of Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae) abundance and West Nile Virus infection rate in the Canadian Prairies.

The Canadian prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba have generally reported the highest human incidence of West Nile virus (WNV) in Canada. In this study, environmental and biotic factors were used to predict numbers of Culex tarsalis Coquillett, which is the primary mosquito vector of WNV in this region, and prevalence of WNV infection in Cx. tarsalis in the Canadian prairies. The results showed that higher mean temperature and elevated time lagged mean temperature were associated with increased numbers of Cx. tarsalis and higher WNV infection rates. However, increasing precipitation was associated with higher abundance of Cx. tarsalis and lower WNV infection rate. In addition, this study found that increased temperature fluctuation and wetland land cover were associated with decreased infection rate in the Cx. tarsalis population. The resulting monthly models can be used to inform public health interventions by improving the predictions of population abundance of Cx. tarsalis and the transmission intensity of WNV in the Canadian prairies. Furthermore, these models can also be used to examine the potential effects of climate change on the vector population abundance and the distribution of WNV.