Insights from in silico study of receptor energetics of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

The emergence of new variants of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 with increased infectivity, superior virulence, high transmissibility, and unmatched immune escape has demonstrated the adaptability and evolutionary fitness of the virus. The subject of relative order of the binding affinity of SARS-CoV-2 variants with the human ACE2 (hACE2) receptor is hotly debated and its resolution has implications for drug design and development. In this work, we have investigated the energetics of the binding of receptor binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs): Beta (B.1.351), Delta (B.1.617.2), Omicron (B.1.1.529), variant of interest (VOI): Kappa (B.1.617.1), and Delta Plus (B.1.617.2.1) variant with the human ACE2 receptor by using the umbrella sampling (US) method. Our work indicates that Delta and Delta Plus variants have greater values of the US binding free energy than Wild-type (WT), whereas Beta, Kappa, and Omicron variants have lower values. Further analysis of hydrogen bonding, salt bridges, non-bonded interaction energy, and contact surface area at the RBD-hACE2 interface establish Delta as the variant with the highest binding affinity among these variants.

Enhanced effect of seasonal malaria chemoprevention when coupled with nutrients supplementation for preventing malaria in children under 5 years old in Burkina Faso: a randomized open label trial.

BACKGROUND: In rural African settings, most of the children under the coverage of Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention (SMC) are also undernourished at the time of SMC delivery, justifying the need for packaging malarial and nutritional interventions. This study aimed at assessing the impact of SMC by coupling the intervention with nutrients supplementation for preventing malaria in children less than 5 years old in Burkina Faso. METHODS: A randomized trial was carried out between July 2020 and June 2021 in the health district of Nanoro, Burkina Faso. Children (n = 1059) under SMC coverage were randomly assigned to one of the three study arms SMC + Vitamin A (SMC-A, n = 353) or SMC + Vitamin A + Zinc (SMC-AZc, n = 353) or SMC + Vitamin A + PlumpyDoz(tm) (SMC-APd, n = 353)-a medium quantity-lipid-based nutrient supplement (MQ-LNS). Children were followed up for one year that included an active follow-up period of 6 months with scheduled monthly home visits followed by 6 months passive follow-up. At each visit, capillary blood sample was collected for malaria diagnosis by rapid diagnosis test (RDT). RESULTS: Adding nutritional supplements to SMC had an effect on the incidence of malaria. A reduction of 23% (adjusted IRR = 0.77 (95%CI 0.61-0.97) in the odds of having uncomplicated malaria in SMC-APd arm but not with SMC-AZc arm adjusted IRR = 0.82 (95%CI 0.65-1.04) compare to control arm was observed. A reduction of 52%, adjusted IRR = 0.48 (95%CI 0.23-0.98) in the odds of having severe malaria was observed in SMC-APd arm compared to control arm. Besides the effect on malaria, this combined strategy had an effect on all-cause morbidity. More specifically, a reduction of morbidity odds of 24%, adjusted IRR = 0.76 (95%CI 0.60-0.94) in SMC-APd arm compared to control arm was observed. Unlike clinical episodes, no effect of nutrient supplementation on cross sectional asymptomatic infections was observed. CONCLUSION: Adding nutritional supplements to SMC significantly increases the impact of this intervention for preventing children from malaria and other childhood infections. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04238845.

Clinical impact of vivax malaria: A collection review.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium vivax infects an estimated 7 million people every year. Previously, vivax malaria was perceived as a benign condition, particularly when compared to falciparum malaria. Reports of the severe clinical impacts of vivax malaria have been increasing over the last decade. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We describe the main clinical impacts of vivax malaria, incorporating a rapid systematic review of severe disease with meta-analysis of data from studies with clearly defined denominators, stratified by hospitalization status. Severe anemia is a serious consequence of relapsing infections in children in endemic areas, in whom vivax malaria causes increased morbidity and mortality and impaired school performance. P. vivax infection in pregnancy is associated with maternal anemia, prematurity, fetal loss, and low birth weight. More than 11,658 patients with severe vivax malaria have been reported since 1929, with 15,954 manifestations of severe malaria, of which only 7,157 (45%) conformed to the World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria. Out of 423 articles, 311 (74%) were published since 2010. In a random-effects meta-analysis of 85 studies, 68 of which were in hospitalized patients with vivax malaria, we estimated the proportion of patients with WHO-defined severe disease as 0.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.19% to 2.57%] in all patients with vivax malaria and 7.11% [95% CI 4.30% to 11.55%] in hospitalized patients. We estimated the mortality from vivax malaria as 0.01% [95% CI 0.00% to 0.07%] in all patients and 0.56% [95% CI 0.35% to 0.92%] in hospital settings. WHO-defined cerebral, respiratory, and renal severe complications were generally estimated to occur in fewer than 0.5% patients in all included studies. Limitations of this review include the observational nature and small size of most of the studies of severe vivax malaria, high heterogeneity of included studies which were predominantly in hospitalized patients (who were therefore more likely to be severely unwell), and high risk of bias including small study effects. CONCLUSIONS: Young children and pregnant women are particularly vulnerable to adverse clinical impacts of vivax malaria, and preventing infections and relapse in this groups is a priority. Substantial evidence of severe presentations of vivax malaria has accrued over the last 10 years, but reporting is inconsistent. There are major knowledge gaps, for example, limited understanding of the underlying pathophysiology and the reason for the heterogenous geographical distribution of reported complications. An adapted case definition of severe vivax malaria would facilitate surveillance and future research to better understand this condition.

The prognostic utility of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) and placental growth factor (PIGF) biomarkers for predicting preeclampsia: a secondary analysis of data from the INSPIRE trial.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the prognostic performance of biomarkers soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), Placental Growth Factor (PIGF), and sFlt-1/PIGF ratio as continuous values or as a binary cut-off of 38 for predicting preeclampsia (PE) within 7 days. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a randomised clinical trial. SETTING: Oxford University Hospitals, Oxford, United Kingdom (UK). POPULATION: Pregnant women between 24+0 to 37+0 weeks of gestation with a clinical suspicion of preeclampsia. MAIN OUTCOME: Onset of preeclampsia within 7 days of the initial biomarker test. METHODS: Logistic regression model for onset of preeclampsia using: (i) sFlt-1 (ii) PIGF, (iii) sFlt-1/PIGF ratio (continuous), and (iv) sFlt-1/PIGF ratio as a cut-off above or below 38. RESULTS: Of the total 370 women, 42 (11.3%) developed PE within 7 days of screening. Models with sFlt-1 and sFlt-1/PIGF ratio (continuous) had greater overall performance than models with PIGF or with sFlt-1/PIGF ratio as a cut-off at 38 (R2: sFlt-1 = 55%, PIGF = 38%, sFlt-1/PIGF ratio = 57%, sFlt-1/PIGF ratio as cut-off at 38 model = 46%). The discrimination performance was the highest in sFlt-1 and sFlt-1/PIGF ratio (continuous) (c-statistic, sFlt-1 = 0.94, sFlt-1/PIGF ratio (continuous) = 0.94) models compared to PIGF or sFlt-1/PIGF cut-off models (c-statistic, PIGF = 0.87, sFlt-1/PIGF cut-off = 0.89). CONCLUSION: Models using continuous values of sFlt-1 only or sFlt-1/PIGF ratio had better predictive performance compared to a PIGF only or the model with sFlt-1/PIGF ratio as a cut-off at 38. Further studies based on a larger sample size are warranted to substantiate this finding.

Malaria epidemiology and anti-malarial drug efficacy in Guinea: a review of clinical and molecular studies.

Malaria is one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity in Guinea. The entire country is considered at risk of the disease. Transmission occurs all year round with peaks occurring from July through October with Plasmodium falciparum as the primary parasite species. Chloroquine (CQ) was the first-line drug against uncomplicated P. falciparum in Guinea until 2005, prior to the adoption of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). In this review, data on therapeutic efficacy of CQ and artemisinin-based combinations reported in published literature is summarized. Against CQ, a failure rate of 27% (12/44) was reported in a study in 1992; a median failure rate of 15.6% [range: 7.7-28.3; 8 studies] was observed during 1996-2001, and 81% (17/21) of the patients failed to clear parasitaemia in a study conducted in 2007. For artemisinin-based combinations, three published studies were identified (1495 patients; 2004-2016); all three studies demonstrated day 28 polymerase chain reaction corrected efficacy > 95%. One study characterized kelch-13 mutations (389 tested; samples collected in 2016) with no evidence of mutations currently known to be associated with artemisinin resistance. The impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and widespread usage of counterfeit medicines are immediate challenges to malaria control activities in Guinea.

Non-malarial febrile illness: a systematic review of published aetiological studies and case reports from Southern Asia and South-eastern Asia, 1980-2015.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of definitive diagnosis, healthcare providers are likely to prescribe empirical antibacterials to those who test negative for malaria. This problem is of critical importance in Southern Asia (SA) and South-eastern Asia (SEA) where high levels of antimicrobial consumption and high prevalence of antimicrobial resistance have been reported. To improve management and guide further diagnostic test development, better understanding is needed of the true causative agents of fever and their geographical variability. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of published literature (1980-2015) to characterise the spectrum of pathogens causing non-malarial febrile illness in SA and SEA. We searched six databases in English and French languages: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health (CABI) database, WHO Global Health Library, PASCAL, and Bulletin de la Société Française de Parasitologie (BDSP). Selection criteria included reporting on an infection or infections with a confirmed diagnosis, defined as pathogens detected in or cultured from samples from normally sterile sites, or serological evidence of current or past infection. RESULTS: A total of 29,558 records from 19 countries in SA and SEA were screened, of which 2410 (8.1%) met the selection criteria. Bacterial aetiologies were reported in 1235 (51.2%) articles, viral in 846 (35.1%), parasitic in 132 (5.5%), and fungal in 54 (2.2%), and 143 (6.0%) articles reported more than one pathogen group. In descending order of frequency, Salmonella Typhi, Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and coagulase negative Staphylococcus were the commonly reported bacteria, while dengue virus, chikungunya virus, Japanese encephalitis virus, hepatitis B virus, and hepatitis C virus were common viral pathogens reported. Reports of rarely reported or emerging pathogens included a case report of Borrelia burgdorferi (Lyme disease) in India in 2010 and reports of Nipah virus in Singapore and India. CONCLUSIONS: This review summarises the reported non-malaria pathogens that may cause febrile illness in SA and SEA. The findings emphasise the need of standardising the reporting of aetiological studies to develop effective, evidence-based fever management and improved surveillance. Research and development of diagnostic tools would benefit from up-to-date epidemiological reporting of the regional diversities of non-malaria fever aetiologies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration, CRD42016049281.

Non-malarial febrile illness: a systematic review of published aetiological studies and case reports from Africa, 1980-2015.

BACKGROUND: The availability of reliable point-of-care tests for malaria has heralded a paradigm shift in the management of febrile illnesses away from presumptive antimalarial therapy. In the absence of a definitive diagnosis, health care providers are more likely to prescribe empirical antimicrobials to those who test negative for malaria. To improve management and guide further test development, better understanding is needed of the true causative agents and their geographic variability. METHODS: A systematic review of published literature was undertaken to characterise the spectrum of pathogens causing non-malaria febrile illness in Africa (1980-2015). Literature searches were conducted in English and French languages in six databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health (CABI), WHO Global Health Library, PASCAL, and Bulletin de la Société Française de Parasitologie (BDSP). Selection criteria included reporting on an infection or infections with a confirmed diagnosis, defined as pathogens detected in or cultured from samples from normally sterile sites, or serological evidence of current or past infection. A number of published articles (rather than incidence or prevalence) reporting a given pathogen were presented. RESULTS: A total of 16,523 records from 48 African countries were screened, of which 1065 (6.4%) met selection criteria. Bacterial infections were reported in 564 (53.0%) records, viral infections in 374 (35.1%), parasitic infections in 47 (4.4%), fungal infections in nine (0.8%), and 71 (6.7%) publications reported more than one pathogen group. Age range of the study population was not specified in 233 (21.9%) publications. Staphylococcus aureus (18.2%), non-typhoidal Salmonella (17.3%), and Escherichia coli (15.4%) were the commonly reported bacterial infections whereas Rift Valley fever virus (7.4%), yellow fever virus (7.0%), and Ebola virus (6.7%) were the most commonly reported viral infections. Dengue virus infection, previously not thought to be widespread in Africa, was reported in 54 (5.1%) of articles. CONCLUSIONS: This review summarises the published reports of non-malaria pathogens that may cause febrile illness in Africa. As the threat of antimicrobial resistance looms, knowledge of the distribution of infectious agents causing fever should facilitate priority setting in the development of new diagnostic tools and improved antimicrobial stewardship. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO, CRD42016049281.

The duration of chemoprophylaxis against malaria after treatment with artesunate-amodiaquine and artemether-lumefantrine and the effects of pfmdr1 86Y and pfcrt 76T: a meta-analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: The majority of Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases in Africa are treated with the artemisinin combination therapies artemether-lumefantrine (AL) and artesunate-amodiaquine (AS-AQ), with amodiaquine being also widely used as part of seasonal malaria chemoprevention programs combined with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. While artemisinin derivatives have a short half-life, lumefantrine and amodiaquine may give rise to differing durations of post-treatment prophylaxis, an important additional benefit to patients in higher transmission areas. METHODS: We analyzed individual patient data from 8 clinical trials of AL versus AS-AQ in 12 sites in Africa (n = 4214 individuals). The time to PCR-confirmed reinfection after treatment was used to estimate the duration of post-treatment protection, accounting for variation in transmission intensity between settings using hidden semi-Markov models. Accelerated failure-time models were used to identify potential effects of covariates on the time to reinfection. The estimated duration of chemoprophylaxis was then used in a mathematical model of malaria transmission to determine the potential public health impact of each drug when used for first-line treatment. RESULTS: We estimated a mean duration of post-treatment protection of 13.0 days (95% CI 10.7-15.7) for AL and 15.2 days (95% CI 12.8-18.4) for AS-AQ overall. However, the duration varied significantly between trial sites, from 8.7-18.6 days for AL and 10.2-18.7 days for AS-AQ. Significant predictors of time to reinfection in multivariable models were transmission intensity, age, drug, and parasite genotype. Where wild type pfmdr1 and pfcrt parasite genotypes predominated (<=20% 86Y and 76T mutants, respectively), AS-AQ provided ~ 2-fold longer protection than AL. Conversely, at a higher prevalence of 86Y and 76T mutant parasites (> 80%), AL provided up to 1.5-fold longer protection than AS-AQ. Our simulations found that these differences in the duration of protection could alter population-level clinical incidence of malaria by up to 14% in under-5-year-old children when the drugs were used as first-line treatments in areas with high, seasonal transmission. CONCLUSION: Choosing a first-line treatment which provides optimal post-treatment prophylaxis given the local prevalence of resistance-associated markers could make a significant contribution to reducing malaria morbidity.

The efficacy of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and artemether-lumefantrine with and without primaquine on Plasmodium vivax recurrence: A systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is recommended for uncomplicated Plasmodium vivax malaria in areas of emerging chloroquine resistance. We undertook a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to compare the efficacies of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) with or without primaquine (PQ) on the risk of recurrent P. vivax. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Clinical efficacy studies of uncomplicated P. vivax treated with DP or AL and published between January 1, 2000, and January 31, 2018, were identified by conducting a systematic review registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO): CRD42016053310. Investigators of eligible studies were invited to contribute individual patient data that were pooled using standardised methodology. The effect of mg/kg dose of piperaquine/lumefantrine, ACT administered, and PQ on the rate of P. vivax recurrence between days 7 and 42 after starting treatment were investigated by Cox regression analyses according to an a priori analysis plan. Secondary outcomes were the risk of recurrence assessed on days 28 and 63. Nineteen studies enrolling 2,017 patients were included in the analysis. The risk of recurrent P. vivax at day 42 was significantly higher in the 384 patients treated with AL alone (44.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 38.7-49.8) compared with the 812 patients treated with DP alone (9.3%, 95% CI 7.1-12.2): adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 12.63 (95% CI 6.40-24.92), p < 0.001. The rates of recurrence assessed at days 42 and 63 were associated inversely with the dose of piperaquine: AHRs (95% CI) for every 5-mg/kg increase 0.63 (0.48-0.84), p = 0.0013 and 0.83 (0.73-0.94), p = 0.0033, respectively. The dose of lumefantrine was not significantly associated with the rate of recurrence (1.07 for every 5-mg/kg increase, 95% CI 0.99-1.16, p = 0.0869). In a post hoc analysis, in patients with symptomatic recurrence after AL, the mean haemoglobin increased 0.13 g/dL (95% CI 0.01-0.26) for every 5 days that recurrence was delayed, p = 0.0407. Coadministration of PQ reduced substantially the rate of recurrence assessed at day 42 after AL (AHR = 0.20, 95% CI 0.10-0.41, p < 0.001) and at day 63 after DP (AHR = 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.70, p = 0.0233). Results were limited by follow-up of patients to 63 days or less and nonrandomised treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed the risk of P. vivax recurrence at day 42 to be significantly lower following treatment with DP compared with AL, reflecting the longer period of post-treatment prophylaxis; this risk was reduced substantially by coadministration with PQ. We found that delaying P. vivax recurrence was associated with a small but significant improvement in haemoglobin. These results highlight the benefits of PQ radical cure and also the provision of blood-stage antimalarial agents with prolonged post-treatment prophylaxis.

The haematological consequences of Plasmodium vivax malaria after chloroquine treatment with and without primaquine: a WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Malaria causes a reduction in haemoglobin that is compounded by primaquine, particularly in patients with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency. The aim of this study was to determine the relative contributions to red cell loss of malaria and primaquine in patients with uncomplicated Plasmodium vivax. METHODS: A systematic review identified P. vivax efficacy studies of chloroquine with or without primaquine published between January 2000 and March 2017. Individual patient data were pooled using standardised methodology, and the haematological response versus time was quantified using a multivariable linear mixed effects model with non-linear terms for time. Mean differences in haemoglobin between treatment groups at day of nadir and day 42 were estimated from this model. RESULTS: In total, 3421 patients from 29 studies were included: 1692 (49.5%) with normal G6PD status, 1701 (49.7%) with unknown status and 28 (0.8%) deficient or borderline individuals. Of 1975 patients treated with chloroquine alone, the mean haemoglobin fell from 12.22 g/dL [95% CI 11.93, 12.50] on day 0 to a nadir of 11.64 g/dL [11.36, 11.93] on day 2, before rising to 12.88 g/dL [12.60, 13.17] on day 42. In comparison to chloroquine alone, the mean haemoglobin in 1446 patients treated with chloroquine plus primaquine was - 0.13 g/dL [- 0.27, 0.01] lower at day of nadir (p = 0.072), but 0.49 g/dL [0.28, 0.69] higher by day 42 (p < 0.001). On day 42, patients with recurrent parasitaemia had a mean haemoglobin concentration - 0.72 g/dL [- 0.90, - 0.54] lower than patients without recurrence (p < 0.001). Seven days after starting primaquine, G6PD normal patients had a 0.3% (1/389) risk of clinically significant haemolysis (fall in haemoglobin > 25% to < 7 g/dL) and a 1% (4/389) risk of a fall in haemoglobin > 5 g/dL. CONCLUSIONS: Primaquine has the potential to reduce malaria-related anaemia at day 42 and beyond by preventing recurrent parasitaemia. Its widespread implementation will require accurate diagnosis of G6PD deficiency to reduce the risk of drug-induced haemolysis in vulnerable individuals. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was registered with PROSPERO: CRD42016053312. The date of the first registration was 23 December 2016.

Evaluating antimalarial efficacy in single-armed and comparative drug trials using competing risk survival analysis: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Antimalarial efficacy studies in patients with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum are confounded by a new infection (a competing risk event) since this event can potentially preclude a recrudescent event (primary endpoint of interest). The current WHO guidelines recommend censoring competing risk events when deriving antimalarial efficacy. We investigated the impact of considering a new infection as a competing risk event on the estimation of antimalarial efficacy in single-armed and comparative drug trials using two simulation studies. METHODS: The first simulation study explored differences in the estimates of treatment failure for areas of varying transmission intensities using the complement of the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) estimate and the Cumulative Incidence Function (CIF). The second simulation study extended this to a comparative drug efficacy trial for comparing the K-M curves using the log-rank test, and Gray's k-sample test for comparing the equality of CIFs. RESULTS: The complement of the K-M approach produced larger estimates of cumulative treatment failure compared to the CIF method; the magnitude of which was correlated with the observed proportion of new infection and recrudescence. When the drug efficacy was 90%, the absolute overestimation in failure was 0.3% in areas of low transmission rising to 3.1% in the high transmission settings. In a scenario which is most likely to be observed in a comparative trial of antimalarials, where a new drug regimen is associated with an increased (or decreased) rate of recrudescences and new infections compared to an existing drug, the log-rank test was found to be more powerful to detect treatment differences compared to the Gray's k-sample test. CONCLUSIONS: The CIF approach should be considered for deriving estimates of antimalarial efficacy, in high transmission areas or for failing drugs. For comparative studies of antimalarial treatments, researchers need to select the statistical test that is best suited to whether the rate or cumulative risk of recrudescence is the outcome of interest, and consider the potential differing prophylactic periods of the antimalarials being compared.

Dealing with indeterminate outcomes in antimalarial drug efficacy trials: a comparison between complete case analysis, multiple imputation and inverse probability weighting.

BACKGROUND: Antimalarial clinical efficacy studies for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria frequently encounter situations in which molecular genotyping is unable to discriminate between parasitic recurrence, either new infection or recrudescence. The current WHO guideline recommends excluding these individuals with indeterminate outcomes in a complete case (CC) analysis. Data from the four artemisinin-based combination (4ABC) trial was used to compare the performance of multiple imputation (MI) and inverse probability weighting (IPW) against the standard CC analysis for dealing with indeterminate recurrences. METHODS: 3369 study participants from the multicentre study (4ABC trial) with molecularly defined parasitic recurrence treated with three artemisinin-based combination therapies were used to represent a complete dataset. A set proportion of recurrent infections (10, 30 and 45%) were reclassified as missing using two mechanisms: a completely random selection (mechanism 1); missingness weakly dependent (mechanism 2a) and strongly dependent (mechanism 2b) on treatment and transmission intensity. The performance of MI, IPW and CC approaches in estimating the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) probability of parasitic recrudescence at day 28 was then compared. In addition, the maximum likelihood estimate of the cured proportion was presented for further comparison (analytical solution). Performance measures (bias, relative bias, standard error and coverage) were reported as an average from 1000 simulation runs. RESULTS: The CC analyses resulted in absolute underestimation of K-M probability of day 28 recrudescence by up to 1.7% and were associated with reduced precision and poor coverage across all the scenarios studied. Both MI and IPW method performed better (greater consistency and greater efficiency) compared to CC analysis. In the absence of censoring, the analytical solution provided the most consistent and accurate estimate of cured proportion compared to the CC analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The widely used CC approach underestimates antimalarial failure; IPW and MI procedures provided efficient and consistent estimates and should be considered when reporting the results of antimalarial clinical trials, especially in areas of high transmission, where the proportion of indeterminate outcomes could be large. The analytical solution estimating the cured proportion could provide an alternative approach, in scenarios with minimal censoring due to loss to follow-up or new infections.

Population Pharmacokinetic Properties of Piperaquine in Falciparum Malaria: An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are the mainstay of the current treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but ACT resistance is spreading across Southeast Asia. Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine is one of the five ACTs currently recommended by the World Health Organization. Previous studies suggest that young children (<5 y) with malaria are under-dosed. This study utilised a population-based pharmacokinetic approach to optimise the antimalarial treatment regimen for piperaquine. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Published pharmacokinetic studies on piperaquine were identified through a systematic literature review of articles published between 1 January 1960 and 15 February 2013. Individual plasma piperaquine concentration-time data from 11 clinical studies (8,776 samples from 728 individuals) in adults and children with uncomplicated malaria and healthy volunteers were collated and standardised by the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network. Data were pooled and analysed using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling. Piperaquine pharmacokinetics were described successfully by a three-compartment disposition model with flexible absorption. Body weight influenced clearance and volume parameters significantly, resulting in lower piperaquine exposures in small children (<25 kg) compared to larger children and adults (≥25 kg) after administration of the manufacturers' currently recommended dose regimens. Simulated median (interquartile range) day 7 plasma concentration was 29.4 (19.3-44.3) ng/ml in small children compared to 38.1 (25.8-56.3) ng/ml in larger children and adults, with the recommended dose regimen. The final model identified a mean (95% confidence interval) increase of 23.7% (15.8%-32.5%) in piperaquine bioavailability between each piperaquine dose occasion. The model also described an enzyme maturation function in very young children, resulting in 50% maturation at 0.575 (0.413-0.711) y of age. An evidence-based optimised dose regimen was constructed that would provide piperaquine exposures across all ages comparable to the exposure currently seen in a typical adult with standard treatment, without exceeding the concentration range observed with the manufacturers' recommended regimen. Limited data were available in infants and pregnant women with malaria as well as in healthy individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The derived population pharmacokinetic model was used to develop a revised dose regimen of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine that is expected to provide equivalent piperaquine exposures safely in all patients, including in small children with malaria. Use of this dose regimen is expected to prolong the useful therapeutic life of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine by increasing cure rates and thereby slowing resistance development. This work was part of the evidence that informed the World Health Organization technical guidelines development group in the development of the recently published treatment guidelines (2015).

Statistical methods to derive efficacy estimates of anti-malarials for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria: pitfalls and challenges.

The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method is currently the preferred approach to derive an efficacy estimate from anti-malarial trial data. In this approach event times are assumed to be continuous and estimates are generated on the assumption that there is only one cause of failure. In reality, failures are captured at pre-scheduled time points and patients can fail treatment due to a variety of causes other than the primary endpoint, commonly termed competing risk events. Ignoring these underlying assumptions can potentially distort the derived efficacy estimates and result in misleading conclusions. This review details the evolution of statistical methods used to derive anti-malarial efficacy for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria and assesses the limitations of the current practices. Alternative approaches are explored and their implementation is discussed using example data from a large multi-site study.

Clinical determinants of early parasitological response to ACTs in African patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria: a literature review and meta-analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum has emerged in the Greater Mekong sub-region and poses a major global public health threat. Slow parasite clearance is a key clinical manifestation of reduced susceptibility to artemisinin. This study was designed to establish the baseline values for clearance in patients from Sub-Saharan African countries with uncomplicated malaria treated with artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). METHODS: A literature review in PubMed was conducted in March 2013 to identify all prospective clinical trials (uncontrolled trials, controlled trials and randomized controlled trials), including ACTs conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa, between 1960 and 2012. Individual patient data from these studies were shared with the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) and pooled using an a priori statistical analytical plan. Factors affecting early parasitological response were investigated using logistic regression with study sites fitted as a random effect. The risk of bias in included studies was evaluated based on study design, methodology and missing data. RESULTS: In total, 29,493 patients from 84 clinical trials were included in the analysis, treated with artemether-lumefantrine (n = 13,664), artesunate-amodiaquine (n = 11,337) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (n = 4,492). The overall parasite clearance rate was rapid. The parasite positivity rate (PPR) decreased from 59.7 % (95 % CI: 54.5-64.9) on day 1 to 6.7 % (95 % CI: 4.8-8.7) on day 2 and 0.9 % (95 % CI: 0.5-1.2) on day 3. The 95th percentile of observed day 3 PPR was 5.3 %. Independent risk factors predictive of day 3 positivity were: high baseline parasitaemia (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.16 (95 % CI: 1.08-1.25); per 2-fold increase in parasite density, P <0.001); fever (>37.5 °C) (AOR = 1.50 (95 % CI: 1.06-2.13), P = 0.022); severe anaemia (AOR = 2.04 (95 % CI: 1.21-3.44), P = 0.008); areas of low/moderate transmission setting (AOR = 2.71 (95 % CI: 1.38-5.36), P = 0.004); and treatment with the loose formulation of artesunate-amodiaquine (AOR = 2.27 (95 % CI: 1.14-4.51), P = 0.020, compared to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine). CONCLUSIONS: The three ACTs assessed in this analysis continue to achieve rapid early parasitological clearance across the sites assessed in Sub-Saharan Africa. A threshold of 5 % day 3 parasite positivity from a minimum sample size of 50 patients provides a more sensitive benchmark in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to the current recommended threshold of 10 % to trigger further investigation of artemisinin susceptibility.

The effect of dosing strategies on the therapeutic efficacy of artesunate-amodiaquine for uncomplicated malaria: a meta-analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Artesunate-amodiaquine (AS-AQ) is one of the most widely used artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) to treat uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Africa. We investigated the impact of different dosing strategies on the efficacy of this combination for the treatment of falciparum malaria. METHODS: Individual patient data from AS-AQ clinical trials were pooled using the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) standardised methodology. Risk factors for treatment failure were identified using a Cox regression model with shared frailty across study sites. RESULTS: Forty-three studies representing 9,106 treatments from 1999-2012 were included in the analysis; 4,138 (45.4%) treatments were with a fixed dose combination with an AQ target dose of 30 mg/kg (FDC), 1,293 (14.2%) with a non-fixed dose combination with an AQ target dose of 25 mg/kg (loose NFDC-25), 2,418 (26.6%) with a non-fixed dose combination with an AQ target dose of 30 mg/kg (loose NFDC-30), and the remaining 1,257 (13.8%) with a co-blistered non-fixed dose combination with an AQ target dose of 30 mg/kg (co-blistered NFDC). The median dose of AQ administered was 32.1 mg/kg [IQR: 25.9-38.2], the highest dose being administered to patients treated with co-blistered NFDC (median = 35.3 mg/kg [IQR: 30.6-43.7]) and the lowest to those treated with loose NFDC-25 (median = 25.0 mg/kg [IQR: 22.7-25.0]). Patients treated with FDC received a median dose of 32.4 mg/kg [IQR: 27-39.0]. After adjusting for reinfections, the corrected antimalarial efficacy on day 28 after treatment was similar for co-blistered NFDC (97.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 97.0-98.8%]) and FDC (98.1% [95% CI: 97.6%-98.5%]; P = 0.799), but significantly lower for the loose NFDC-25 (93.4% [95% CI: 91.9%-94.9%]), and loose NFDC-30 (95.0% [95% CI: 94.1%-95.9%]) (P < 0.001 for all comparisons). After controlling for age, AQ dose, baseline parasitemia and region; treatment with loose NFDC-25 was associated with a 3.5-fold greater risk of recrudescence by day 28 (adjusted hazard ratio, AHR = 3.51 [95% CI: 2.02-6.12], P < 0.001) compared to FDC, and treatment with loose NFDC-30 was associated with a higher risk of recrudescence at only three sites. CONCLUSIONS: There was substantial variation in the total dose of amodiaquine administered in different AS-AQ combination regimens. Fixed dose AS-AQ combinations ensure optimal dosing and provide higher antimalarial treatment efficacy than the loose individual tablets in all age categories.

Baseline data of parasite clearance in patients with falciparum malaria treated with an artemisinin derivative: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum manifests as slow parasite clearance but this measure is also influenced by host immunity, initial parasite biomass and partner drug efficacy. This study collated data from clinical trials of artemisinin derivatives in falciparum malaria with frequent parasite counts to provide reference parasite clearance estimates stratified by location, treatment and time, to examine host factors affecting parasite clearance, and to assess the relationships between parasite clearance and risk of recrudescence during follow-up. METHODS: Data from 24 studies, conducted from 1996 to 2013, with frequent parasite counts were pooled. Parasite clearance half-life (PC1/2) was estimated using the WWARN Parasite Clearance Estimator. Random effects regression models accounting for study and site heterogeneity were used to explore factors affecting PC1/2 and risk of recrudescence within areas with reported delayed parasite clearance (western Cambodia, western Thailand after 2000, southern Vietnam, southern Myanmar) and in all other areas where parasite populations are artemisinin sensitive. RESULTS: PC1/2 was estimated in 6975 patients, 3288 of whom also had treatment outcomes evaluate d during 28-63 days follow-up, with 93 (2.8 %) PCR-confirmed recrudescences. In areas with artemisinin-sensitive parasites, the median PC1/2 following three-day artesunate treatment (4 mg/kg/day) ranged from 1.8 to 3.0 h and the proportion of patients with PC1/2 >5 h from 0 to 10 %. Artesunate doses of 4 mg/kg/day decreased PC1/2 by 8.1 % (95 % CI 3.2-12.6) compared to 2 mg/kg/day, except in populations with delayed parasite clearance. PC1/2 was longer in children and in patients with fever or anaemia at enrolment. Long PC1/2 (HR = 2.91, 95 % CI 1.95-4.34 for twofold increase, p < 0.001) and high initial parasitaemia (HR = 2.23, 95 % CI 1.44-3.45 for tenfold increase, p < 0.001) were associated independently with an increased risk of recrudescence. In western Cambodia, the region with the highest prevalence of artemisinin resistance, there was no evidence for increasing PC1/2 since 2007. CONCLUSIONS: Several factors affect PC1/2. As substantial heterogeneity in parasite clearance exists between locations, early detection of artemisinin resistance requires reference PC1/2 data. Studies with frequent parasite count measurements to characterize PC1/2 should be encouraged. In western Cambodia, where PC1/2 values are longest, there is no evidence for recent emergence of higher levels of artemisinin resistance.

Blood transfusion in the care of patients with visceral leishmaniasis: a review of practices in therapeutic efficacy studies.

Blood transfusion remains an important aspect of patient management in visceral leishmaniasis (VL). However, transfusion triggers considered are poorly understood. This review summarises the transfusion practices adopted in VL efficacy studies using the Infectious Diseases Data Observatory VL clinical trials library. Of the 160 studies (1980-2021) indexed in the IDDO VL library, description of blood transfusion was presented in 16 (10.0%) (n=3459 patients) studies. Transfusion was initiated solely based on haemoglobin (Hb) measurement in nine studies, combining Hb measurement with an additional condition (epistaxis/poor health/clinical instability) in three studies and the criteria was not mentioned in four studies. The Hb threshold range for triggering transfusion was 3-8 g/dL. The number of patients receiving transfusion was explicitly reported in 10 studies (2421 patients enrolled, 217 underwent transfusion). The median proportion of patients who received transfusion in a study was 8.0% (Interquartile range: 4.7% to 47.2%; range: 0-100%; n=10 studies). Of the 217 patients requiring transfusion, 58 occurred before VL treatment initiation, 46 during the treatment/follow-up phase and the time was not mentioned in 113. This review describes the variation in clinical practice and is an important initial step in policy/guideline development, where both the patient's Hb concentration and clinical status must be considered.

Design, Conduct, Analysis, and Reporting of Therapeutic Efficacy Studies in Visceral Leishmaniasis: A Systematic Review of Published Reports, 2000-2021.

A systematic review (SR) of published efficacy studies in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) was undertaken to describe methodological aspects of design, conduct, analysis, and reporting. Studies published during 2000-2021 and indexed in the Infectious Diseases Data Observatory VL library of clinical studies were eligible for inclusion (N = 89 studies). Of the 89 studies, 40 (44.9%) were randomized, 33 (37.1%) were single-armed, 14 (15.7%) were nonrandomized multiarmed studies, and randomization status was unclear in two (2.2%). After initial screening, disease confirmation was done by microscopy in 26 (29.2%) and by a combination of serology and microscopy in 63 (70.8%). Post-treatment follow-up duration was <6 months in three (3.3%) studies, 6 months in 75 (84.3%), and >6 months in 11 (12.4%) studies. Confirmation of relapse was solely based on clinical suspicion in four (4.5%) studies, parasitological demonstration in 64 (71.9%), using molecular/serological/parasitological method in 6 (6.7%), and there was no information in 15 (16.9%). Of the 40 randomized studies, sample size calculation was reported in only 22 (55.0%) studies. This review highlights substantial variations in definitions adopted for disease diagnosis and therapeutic outcomes suggesting a need for a harmonized trials protocol.

Estimating the proportion of relapse following treatment of Visceral Leishmaniasis: meta-analysis using Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO) systematic review.

Background: Occurrences of relapse after 6-months post-treatment has been reported in recent Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) efficacy studies. A meta-analysis was carried out to quantify the proportion of relapses observed at and beyond 6-months using the Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO) systematic review (SR) database. Methods: Studies in the IDDO SR database (1983-2021; 160 studies) were eligible for inclusion if follow-up was at least 6-months, relapse was clearly reported, and patients with HIV coinfections were excluded. Meta-analysis of single proportion was undertaken and the estimates were reported with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Findings: Overall, 131 studies enrolling 27,687 patients were included; 1193 patients relapsed. In the Indian sub-continent (ISC), relapse estimates at 6-months was 4.5% [95% CI: 2.6%-7.5%; I2 = 66.2%] following single dose liposomal amphotericin B (L-AmB) and 1.5% [95% CI: 0.7%-3.3%; I2 = 0%] for L-AmB in a combination therapy. In East Africa (EA), corresponding estimates were 3.8% [95% CI: 1.3%-10.9%; I2 = 75.8%] following pentavalent antimony (PA), and 13.0% [95% CI: 4.3%-33.6%; I2 = 0%] for PA + paromomycin. From 21 studies with follow-up longer than 6-months, 0.6% [95% CI: 0.2%-1.8%; I2 = 0%] of patients relapsed after 6-months and estimated 27.6% [95% CI: 11.2%-53.4%; I2 = 12%] of relapses would have been missed by a 6-month follow-up. Interpretation: The estimated relapse proportion ranged from 0.5% to 4.5% in ISC and 3.8%-13.0% in EA with the currently recommended drugs. Over one-quarter of relapses would be missed with 6-months follow-up suggesting a longer follow-up may be warranted. Funding: Wellcome Trust (ref: 208378/Z/17/Z).