Seattle proportional risk model in GISSI-HF: Estimated benefit of ICD in patients with EF less than 50.

BACKGROUND: The Seattle Proportional Risk Model (SPRM) estimates the proportion of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in heart failure (HF) patients, identifying those most likely to benefit from implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy (those with ≥50% estimated proportion of SCD). The GISSI-HF trial tested fish oil and rosuvastatin in HF patients. We used the SPRM to evaluate its accuracy in this cohort in predicting potential ICD benefit in patients with EF ≤50% and an SPRM-predicted proportion of SCD either ≥50% or <50%. METHODS: The SPRM was estimated in patients with EF ≤50% and in a logistic regression model comparing SCD with non-SCD. RESULTS: We evaluated 6,750 patients with EF ≤50%. There were 1,892 all-cause deaths, including 610 SCDs. Fifty percent of EF ≤35% patients and 43% with EF 36% to 50% had an SPRM of ≥50%. The SPRM (OR: 1.92, P < 0.0001) accurately predicted the risk of SCD vs non-SCD with an estimated proportion of SCD of 44% vs the observed proportion of 41% at 1 year. By traditional criteria for ICD implantation (EF ≤35%, NYHA class II or III), 64.5% of GISSI-HF patients would be eligible, with an estimated ICD benefit of 0.81. By SPRM >50%, 47.8% may be eligible, including 30.2% with EF >35%. GISSI-HF participants with EF ≤35% with SPRM ≥50% had an estimated ICD HR of 0.64, comparable to patients with EF 36% to 50% with SPRM ≥50% (HR: 0.65). CONCLUSIONS: The SPRM discriminated SCD vs non-SCD in GISSI-HF, both in patients with EF ≤35% and with EF 36% to 50%. The comparable estimated ICD benefit in patients with EF ≤35% and EF 36% to 50% supports the use of a proportional risk model for shared decision making with patients being considered for primary prevention ICD therapy.

Deep phenotyping of cardiac function in heart transplant patients using cardiovascular system models.

KEY POINTS: Right heart catheterization data from clinical records of heart transplant patients are used to identify patient-specific models of the cardiovascular system. These patient-specific cardiovascular models represent a snapshot of cardiovascular function at a given post-transplant recovery time point. This approach is used to describe cardiac function in 10 heart transplant patients, five of which had multiple right heart catheterizations allowing an assessment of cardiac function over time. These patient-specific models are used to predict cardiovascular function in the form of right and left ventricular pressure-volume loops and ventricular power, an important metric in the clinical assessment of cardiac function. Outcomes for the longitudinally tracked patients show that our approach was able to identify the one patient from the group of five that exhibited post-transplant cardiovascular complications. ABSTRACT: Heart transplant patients are followed with periodic right heart catheterizations (RHCs) to identify post-transplant complications and guide treatment. Post-transplant positive outcomes are associated with a steady reduction of right ventricular and pulmonary arterial pressures, toward normal levels of right-side pressure (about 20 mmHg) measured by RHC. This study shows that more information about patient progression is obtained by combining standard RHC measures with mechanistic computational cardiovascular system models. The purpose of this study is twofold: to understand how cardiovascular system models can be used to represent a patient's cardiovascular state, and to use these models to track post-transplant recovery and outcome. To obtain reliable parameter estimates comparable within and across datasets, we use sensitivity analysis, parameter subset selection, and optimization to determine patient-specific mechanistic parameters that can be reliably extracted from the RHC data. Patient-specific models are identified for 10 patients from their first post-transplant RHC, and longitudinal analysis is carried out for five patients. Results of the sensitivity analysis and subset selection show that we can reliably estimate seven non-measurable quantities; namely, ventricular diastolic relaxation, systemic resistance, pulmonary venous elastance, pulmonary resistance, pulmonary arterial elastance, pulmonary valve resistance and systemic arterial elastance. Changes in parameters and predicted cardiovascular function post-transplant are used to evaluate the cardiovascular state during recovery of five patients. Of these five patients, only one showed inconsistent trends during recovery in ventricular pressure-volume relationships and power output. At the four-year post-transplant time point this patient exhibited biventricular failure along with graft dysfunction while the remaining four exhibited no cardiovascular complications.

Modeling defibrillation benefit for survival among cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator recipients.

BACKGROUND: Patients with heart failure having a low expected probability of arrhythmic death may not benefit from implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs). OBJECTIVE: The objective was to validate models to identify cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) candidates who may not require CRT devices with ICD functionality. METHODS: Heart failure (HF) patients with CRT-Ds and non-CRT ICDs from the National Cardiovascular Data Registry and others with no device from 3 separate registries and 3 heart failure trials were analyzed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression for survival with the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM; estimates overall mortality) and the Seattle Proportional Risk Model (SPRM; estimates proportional risk of arrhythmic death). RESULTS: Among 60,185 patients (age 68.6 ±â€¯11.3 years, 31.9% female) meeting CRT-D criteria, 38,348 had CRT-Ds, 11,389 had non-CRT ICDs, and 10,448 had no device. CRT-D patients had a prominent adjusted survival benefit (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.50-0.55, P < .0001 versus no device). CRT-D patients with SHFM-predicted 4-year survival ≥81% (median) and a low SPRM-predicted probability of an arrhythmic mode of death ≤42% (median) had an absolute adjusted risk reduction attributable to ICD functionality of just 0.95%/year with the majority of survival benefit (70%) attributable to CRT pacing. In contrast, CRT-D patients with SHFM-predicted survival median had substantially more ICD-attributable benefit (absolute risk reduction of 2.6%/year combined; P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: The SPRM and SHFM identified a quarter of real-world, primary prevention CRT-D patients with minimal benefit from ICD functionality. Further studies to evaluate CRT pacemakers in these low-risk CRT candidates are indicated.

Patterns of Hospital Bypass and Interhospital Transfer Among Patients With Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: We describe how patient characteristics influence hospital bypass, interhospital transfer, and in-hospital mortality in patients with heart failure in Washington. Rural patients with heart failure may bypass their nearest hospital or be transferred for appropriate therapies. The frequency, determinants, and outcomes of these practices remain uncharacterized. METHODS AND RESULTS: Mean excess travel times based on hospital and patient residence ZIP codes were calculated using published methods. Hospitals and servicing areas were coded based on bed size and ZIP code, respectively. Transfer patterns were analyzed using bootstrap inference for clusters. Analysis of mortality and transfer-associated factors was performed using logistic regression with generalized estimating equations. There were 48,163 patients, representing 1106 instances of transfer, studied. The mean excess travel time increased 7.14 minutes per decrease in population density (metropolitan, micropolitan, small town, rural; P < .0001). The rural mean excess travel time was greatest at 28.56 minutes. Transfer likelihood increased with younger age, male gender, admitting hospital rurality, higher Charlson Comorbidity Index, and stroke. Transfer was less likely among women (odds ratio [OR], 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.94) and patients over 70 years old (OR, 0.15-0.46; 95% CI, 0.10-0.65). Adjusting for comorbidities and transfer propensity, transfer exhibited a stronger association with mortality than any other measured patient risk factor (OR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.69-2.73), excluding stroke (OR, 7.09; 95% CI, 4.99-10.06). CONCLUSIONS: Rural hospital bypass is prevalent among patients with heart failure, although its clinical significance is unclear. Female and older patients were found to have a lesser likelihood of transfer adjusted for other factors. Interhospital transfer is associated with increased mortality when adjusted for comorbidities.

Prediction of sudden cardiac death in Japanese heart failure patients: international validation of the Seattle Proportional Risk Model.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) is associated with an increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). This study sought to demonstrate the incidence of SCD within a multicentre Japanese registry of HF patients hospitalized for acute decompensation, and externally validate the Seattle Proportional Risk Model (SPRM). METHODS AND RESULTS: We consecutively registered 2240 acute HF patients from academic institutions in Tokyo, Japan. The discrimination and calibration of the SPRM were assessed by the c-statistic, Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, and visual plotting among non-survivors. Patient-level SPRM predictions and implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) benefit [ICD estimated hazard ratio (HR), derived from the Cox proportional hazards model in the Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure Trial (SCD-HeFT)] was calculated. During the 2-year follow-up, 356 deaths (15.9%) occurred, which included 76 adjudicated SCDs (3.4%) and 280 non-SCDs (12.5%). The SPRM showed acceptable discrimination [c-index = 0.63; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.70], similar to that of original SPRM-derivation cohort. The calibration plot showed reasonable conformance. Among HF patients with reduced ejection fraction (EF; < 40%), SPRM showed improved discrimination compared with the ICD eligibility criteria (e.g. New York Heart Association functional Class II-III with EF ≤ 35%): c-index = 0.53 (95% CI 0.42-0.63) vs. 0.65 (95% CI 0.55-0.75) for SPRM. Finally, in the subgroup of 246 patients with both EF ≤ 35% and SPRM-predicted risk of ≥ 42.0% (SCD-HeFT defined ICD benefit threshold), mean ICD estimated HR was 0.70 (30% reduction of all-cause mortality by ICD). CONCLUSION: The cumulative incidence of SCD was 3.4% in Japanese HF registry. The SPRM performed reasonably well in Japanese patients and may aid in improving SCD prediction.

Adverse Effects of Delayed Transplant Listing Among Patients With Implantable Left Ventricular Assist Devices.

BACKGROUND: The timing of transplant listing after implantation of a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) remains uncertain, given high device complication rates and apparent stability of some LVAD-supported patients. This investigation quantifies the effect of delayed transplant listing and transplantation rates on medium-term survival and LVAD complications. METHODS AND RESULTS: A Markov model was used to simulate the effects of delaying initial transplant listing after LVAD implantation. Modeled parameters were derived from the Standard Transplant Analysis and Research file. When transplant listing was delayed and 5-year results were examined, fewer persons underwent transplantation (53% in base model vs 51% in 180-day-delay model) and the fraction of deaths while waiting increased (17% in base model vs 21% in 180-day delay model). Life expectancy changed minimally from the base model (3.50 y) when initial listing was delayed by 180 days (3.51 y). CONCLUSIONS: Delaying initial transplant listing increased the likelihood of death while waiting for a transplant and decreased the likelihood of transplantation. In aggregate, life expectancy was unchanged by delays in listing. This study suggests that delaying transplant listing with the expectation of providing additional life expectancy is not likely with current LVAD technology.

Late Surgical Bleeding Following Total Artificial Heart Implantation.

INTRODUCTION: Mechanical circulatory support for heart failure, including the Total Artificial Heart (TAH, Syncardia, Tucson, AZ, USA) has increased in recent years. This report describes bleeding complications associated with the device. METHODS: A single institution prospectively maintained quality improvement database was reviewed encompassing the first year of clinical experience with the TAH. Patients who underwent TAH implantation were identified, and a review of complications and outcomes was undertaken. RESULTS: Ten patients underwent TAH implant. Four patients experienced delayed postoperative bleeding. In three patients the manifestation of bleeding was tamponade and evidenced by TAH decreased cardiac output. In two patients, at postoperative days 31 and 137, there was a partial disruption of the aortic anastomosis along the outer curvature with pseudoaneurysm formation. Both were repaired by primary suture closure, without use of cardiopulmonary bypass. There was no mortality attributable to bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: TAH patients are at risk for delayed postoperative bleeding, often manifest as an acute decrease in cardiac output. Due to pulsatility and high dP/dT, bleeding from the aortic anastomosis should be considered in the differential of a patient with low flow and/or tamponade.

Survival Probability and Survival Benefit Associated With Primary Prevention Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator Generator Changes.

Background As patients derive variable benefit from generator changes (GCs) of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) with an original primary prevention (PP) indication, better predictors of outcomes are needed. Methods and Results In the National Cardiovascular Data Registry ICD Registry, patients undergoing GCs of initial non-cardiac resynchronization therapy PP ICDs in 2012 to 2016, predictors of post-GC survival and survival benefit versus control heart failure patients without ICDs were assessed. These included predicted annual mortality based on the Seattle Heart Failure Model, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) >35%, and the probability that a patient's death would be arrhythmic (proportional risk of arrhythmic death [PRAD]). In 40 933 patients undergoing GCs of initial noncardiac resynchronization therapy PP ICDs (age 67.7±12.0 years, 24.5% women, 34.1% with LVEF >35%), Seattle Heart Failure Model-predicted annual mortality had the greatest effect size for decreased post-GC survival (P<0.0001). Patients undergoing GCs of initial noncardiac resynchronization therapy PP ICDs with LVEF >35% had a lower Seattle Heart Failure Model-adjusted survival versus 23 472 control heart failure patients without ICDs (model interaction hazard ratio, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.11-1.31]). In patients undergoing GCs of initial noncardiac resynchonization therapy PP ICDs with LVEF ≤35%, the model indicated worse survival versus controls in the 21% of patients with a PRAD <43% and improved survival in the 10% with PRAD >65%. The association of the PRAD with survival benefit or harm was similar in patients with or without pre-GC ICD therapies. Conclusions Patients who received replacement of an ICD originally implanted for primary prevention and had at the time of GC either LVEF >35% alone or both LVEF ≤35% and PRAD <43% had worse survival versus controls without ICDs.

Accuracy of risk models used for public reporting of heart transplant center performance.

BACKGROUND: Heart transplant programs and regulatory entities require highly accurate performance metrics to support internal quality improvement activities and national oversight of transplant programs, respectively. We assessed the accuracy of publicly reported performance measures. METHODS: We used the United Network for Organ Sharing registry to study patients who underwent heart transplantation between January 1, 2016 and June 30, 2018. We used tests of calibration to compare the observed rate of 1-year graft failure to the expected risk of 1-year graft failure, which was calculated for each recipient using the July 2019 method published by the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR). The primary study outcome was the joint test of calibration, which accounts for both the total number of events predicted (calibration-in-the-large) and dispersion of risk predictions (calibration slope). RESULTS: 6,528 heart transplants were analyzed. The primary test of calibration failed (p <0.0001), indicating poor accuracy of the SRTR model. The calibration-in-the-large statistic (0.63, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58-0.68, p < 0.0001) demonstrated overestimation of event rates while the calibration slope statistic (0.56, 95% CI 0.49-0.62, p <0.0001) indicated over-dispersion of event rates. Pre-specified subgroup analyses demonstrated poor calibration for all subgroups (each p <0.01). After recalibration, program-level observed/expected ratios increased by a median of 0.14 (p <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Risk models employed for publicly-reported graft survival at U.S. heart transplant centers lack accuracy in general and in all subgroups tested. The use of disease-specific models may improve the accuracy of program performance metrics.

Long-term adult congenital heart disease survival after heart transplantation: A restricted mean survival time analysis.

BACKGROUND: Adult Congenital Heart Disease (ACHD) heart transplant recipients may have lower post-transplant survival resulting from higher peri-operative mortality than non-ACHD patients. However, the late risk of mortality appears lower in ACHD recipients. This study seeks to establish whether long-term heart transplant survival is reduced among ACHD recipients relative to non-ACHD recipients. METHODS: Adult patients who received a heart transplant between January, 2000 and December, 2019 in the United Network for Organ Sharing database were stratified by the presence of ACHD. Propensity-matched cohorts (1:4) were created to adjust for differences between groups. Graft survival at time points from 1 to 18 years was compared between groups using restricted mean survival time (RMST) analysis. RESULTS: The matched cohort included 1,139 ACHD and 4,293 non-ACHD patients. Median age was 35 years and 61% were male. Average survival time at 1 year was 0.85 years for ACHD patients and 0.93 years for non-ACHD patients (average difference: -0.08 years, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] -0.10 to -0.06, p < 0.001), reflecting higher immediate post-transplant mortality. Average survival time at 18 years was not clinically or statistically different: 11.14 years for ACHD patients and 11.40 years for non-ACHD patients (average difference: -0.26 years, 95% CI: -0.85 to + 0.32 years, p = 0.38). CONCLUSIONS: Despite increased medium-term mortality among ACHD patients after heart transplant, differences in long-term survival are minimal. Allocation of hearts to ACHD patients results in acceptable utility of donor hearts.

Left Ventricular Assist Device Inflow Cannula Insertion Depth Influences Thrombosis Risk.

Left ventricular assist device (LVAD) use has continued to grow. Despite recent advances in technology, LVAD patients continue to suffer from devastating complications, including stroke and device thrombosis. Among several variables affecting thrombogenicity, we hypothesize that insertion depth of the inflow cannula into the left ventricle (LV) influences hemodynamics and thrombosis risk. Blood flow patterns were studied in a patient-derived computational model of the LV, mitral valve (MV), and LVAD inflow cannula using unsteady computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Hundreds of thousands of platelets were tracked individually, for two inflow cannula insertion depth configurations (12 mm-reduced and 27 mm-conventional) using platelet-level (Lagrangian) metrics to quantify thrombogenicity. Particularly in patients with small LV dimensions, the deeper inflow cannula insertion resulted in much higher platelet shear stress histories (SH), consistent with markedly abnormal intraventricular hemodynamics. A larger proportion of platelets in this deeper insertion configuration was found to linger in the domain for long residence times (RT) and also accumulated much higher SH. The reduced inflow depth configuration promoted LV washout and reduced platelet SH. The increase of both SH and RT in the LV demonstrates the impact of inflow cannula depth on platelet activation and increased stroke risk in these patients. Inflow cannula depth of insertion should be considered as an opportunity to optimize surgical planning of LVAD therapy.

Accuracy of Doppler blood pressure measurement in HeartMate 3 ventricular assist device patients.

AIMS: Optimal blood pressure (BP) control is imperative to reduce complications, especially strokes, in continuous flow ventricular assist device (VAD) patients. Doppler BP has been shown to be an accurate and reliable non-invasive BP measurement method in HeartMate II and HVAD patients. We examined whether Doppler BP is also accurate in patients with the HeartMate 3 VAD. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a prospective, longitudinal cohort of HeartMate 3 patients, arterial line BP and simultaneously measured Doppler opening pressure were obtained. Correlation and agreement between Doppler opening pressure and arterial line mean arterial pressure (MAP) versus systolic blood pressure (SBP) were analysed, as well as the effect of pulse pressure on the accuracy of Doppler opening pressure. A total of 589 pairs of simultaneous Doppler opening pressure and arterial line pressure readings were obtained in 43 patients. Doppler opening pressure had good correlation with intra-arterial MAP (r = 0.754) and more closely approximated MAP than SBP (mean error 2.0 vs. -8.6 mmHg). Pulse pressure did not have a clinically significant impact on the accuracy of the Doppler BP method. These results in HeartMate 3 patients are very similar to previous results in HeartMate II and HVAD patients. CONCLUSIONS: Doppler BP method should be the default non-invasive BP measurement method in continuous flow VAD patients including patients implanted with the HeartMate 3.

Improved Outcomes of Heart Transplantation in Adults With Congenital Heart Disease Receiving Regionalized Care.

BACKGROUND: The number of adult congenital heart disease (CHD) patients undergoing heart transplantation is increasing rapidly. CHD patients have higher surgical risk at transplantation. High-volume adult CHD transplant centers may have better transplant outcomes. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate the effect of center CHD transplant volume and expertise on transplant outcomes in CHD patients. METHODS: The authors studied heart transplantations in CHD patients age ≥18 years using the United Network of Organ Sharing (UNOS) database for the primary outcomes of waitlist mortality and post-transplant outcomes at 30 days and 1 year. Transplant centers were assessed by status as the highest CHD transplant volume center in a UNOS region versus all others, presence of Adult Congenital Heart Association accreditation, and adult versus pediatric hospital designation. RESULTS: Between January of 2000 and June of 2018, 1,746 adult CHD patients were listed for transplant; 1,006 (57.6%) of these underwent heart transplantation. After adjusting for age, sex, listing status, and inotrope requirement, waitlist mortality risk was lower at Adult Congenital Heart Association accredited centers (hazard ratio: 0.730; p = 0.020). Post-transplant 30-day mortality was lower at the highest volume CHD transplant center in each UNOS region (hazard ratio: 0.706; p = 0.014). CONCLUSIONS: Designated expertise in CHD care is associated with improved waitlist outcomes for CHD patients listed for transplantation. Post-transplant survival was improved at the highest volume regional center. These findings suggest a possible advantage of regionalization of CHD transplantation.

Small Left Ventricular Size Is an Independent Risk Factor for Ventricular Assist Device Thrombosis.

The prevalence of ventricular assist device (VAD) therapy has continued to increase due to a stagnant donor supply and growing advanced heart failure (HF) population. We hypothesize that left ventricular (LV) size strongly influences biocompatibility and risk of thrombosis. Unsteady computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used in conjunction with patient-derived computational modeling and virtual surgery with a standard, apically implanted inflow cannula. A dual-focus approach of evaluating thrombogenicity was employed: platelet-based metrics to characterize the platelet environment and flow-based metrics to investigate hemodynamics. Left ventricular end-diastolic dimensions (LVEDds) ranging from 4.5 to 6.5 cm were studied and ranked according to relative thrombogenic potential. Over 150,000 platelets were individually tracked in each LV model over 15 cardiac cycles. As LV size decreased, platelets experienced markedly increased shear stress histories (SHs), whereas platelet residence time (RT) in the LV increased with size. The complex interplay between increased SH and longer RT has profound implications on thrombogenicity, with a significantly higher proportion of platelets in small LVs having long RT times and being subjected to high SH, contributing to thrombus formation. Our data suggest that small LV size, rather than decreased VAD speed, is the primary pathologic mechanism responsible for the increased incidence of thrombosis observed in VAD patients with small LVs.

Impact of Mechanical Circulatory Support on Posttransplant Outcomes.

Mechanical circulatory support (MCS) has markedly improved the likelihood of transplant among patients with advanced heart failure. Transplant survival following MCS is similar for supported and unsupported recipients. Transplant survival is only reduced following left ventricle assist device (LVAD) support complicated by infection, total artificial heart support, and extracorporeal life support. Despite allosensitization and a higher incidence of vasoplegia syndrome, posttransplant survival for durable LVADs is similar to patients with inotropes alone at the time of transplant. MCS as a bridge to transplant offers significant benefits over waiting without support.

Impact of Patient Distance From Ventricular Assist Device-Implanting Center on Short- and Long-Term Outcomes.

Highly specialized left ventricular assist device care is not readily available in many areas, potentially limiting access to therapy. This retrospective analysis examines the relationship of outcomes by patient distance from implanting left ventricular assist device center within the Mechanical Circulatory Support Research Network. Zip codes were used to calculate patient distance, with the primary outcome of interest being 3-year survival by distance from the surgical center. Secondary outcomes included 90-day survival and incident event rates for the following: gastrointestinal bleeding, infection, cerebral event, and pump thrombosis. Across the four centers, there were 1184 patients supported for a median of 486 days. Overall survival was 91 ± 0.8% at 90 days and 61 ± 1.9% at 3 years, with worse 3-year survival in those living >90 vs. ≤90 miles from the ventricular assist device implant center (55 ± 3.0% vs. 64 ± 2.5, p = 0.019). Patients living >90 miles from an implant center were older, more likely to be implanted for destination therapy support, had a prior sternotomy, and had worse renal function than those living closer (p <0.05 for all). After adjusting for these factors, albumin and center of implant, the hazard ratio did not reach statistical significance (hazard ratio = 1.2; p = 0.14). Except for gastrointestinal bleeding, the event rates for the secondary outcomes were higher for those living closer to the implanting center. Protocols should be designed for more frequent follow-up and increased shared care opportunities to ensure optimal outcomes are achieved in distant patients.

Improving the Use of Primary Prevention Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillators Therapy With Validated Patient-Centric Risk Estimates.

OBJECTIVES: The authors previously developed the Seattle Proportional Risk Model (SPRM) in systolic heart failure patients without implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs)to predict the proportion of deaths that were sudden. They subsequently validated the SPRM in 2 observational ICD data sets. The objectives in the present study were to determine whether this validated model could improve identification of clinically important variations in the expected magnitude of ICD survival benefit by using a pivotal randomized trial of primary prevention ICD therapy. BACKGROUND: Recent data show that <50% of nominally eligible subjects receive guideline- recommended primary prevention ICDs. METHODS: In the SCD-HeFT (Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure Trial), a placebo-controlled ICD trial in 2,521 patients with an ejection fraction ≤35% and symptomatic heart failure, we tested the use of patient-level SPRM-predicted probability of sudden death (relative to that of non-sudden death) as a summary measurement of the potential for ICD benefit. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate variations in the relationship between patient-level SPRM predictions and ICD benefit. RESULTS: Relative to use of mortality predictions with the Seattle Heart Failure Model, the SPRM was much better at partitioning treatment benefit from ICD therapy (effect size was 2- to 3.6-fold larger for the ICD×SPRM interaction). ICD benefit varied significantly across SPRM-predicted risk quartiles: for all-cause mortality, a +10% increase with ICD therapy in the first quartile (highest risk of death, lowest proportion of sudden death) to a decrease of 66% in the fourth quartile (lowest risk of death, highest proportion of sudden death; p = 0.0013); for sudden death mortality, a 19% reduction in SPRM quartile 1 to 95% reduction in SPRM quartile 4 (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In symptomatic systolic heart failure patients with a Class I recommendation for primary prevention ICD therapy, the SPRM offers a useful patient-centric tool for guiding shared decision making.

The Benefit of Donor-Recipient Matching for Patients Undergoing Heart Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Heart transplant volumes are not matching growing demand, and donor heart use may be decreasing. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to investigate the benefit of heart transplantation compared with waiting while accounting for the estimated risk of a given donor-recipient match. METHODS: This study identified 28,548 heart transplant candidates in the Organ Procurement and Transplant Network between July 2006 and December 2015. Donor-recipient match quality was estimated from the donor risk index. A time-dependent covariate Cox model was used to determine the effect of donor-recipient match quality on the likelihood of a composite outcome while waiting for a transplant or after transplantation. The composite outcome was death or delisting as too ill. RESULTS: Donor and recipient risk estimates were inversely related to the candidate urgency. Net benefit from heart transplantation was evident across all estimates of donor-recipient status 1A and 1B candidates: status 1A (lowest-risk quartile hazard ratio [HR]: 0.37; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.31 to 0.43; highest-risk quartile HR: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.44 to 0.61) and status 1B candidates (lowest-risk quartile HR: 0.41; 95% CI: 0.36 to 0.47; highest-risk quartile HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.58 to 0.74). Status 2 candidates showed a benefit from heart transplantation; however, survival benefit was delayed. For the highest-risk donor-recipient matches, a net benefit of transplantation occurred immediately for status 1A candidates, after 12 months for status 1B candidates, and after 3 years for status 2 candidates. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated a survival benefit of heart transplantation across all ranges of estimated donor-recipient match risk for status 1A and status 1B candidates. Donor heart acceptance should be the favored strategy for these candidates. The benefit of transplantation for status 2 candidates was less apparent and dependent on estimated donor-recipient match risk, suggesting that a measure of donor-recipient match quality may be useful when considering the immediate benefit of heart transplantation for status 2 candidates in stable condition.

Agreement between risk and priority for heart transplant: Effects of the geographic allocation rule and status assignment.

BACKGROUND: Allocation of donor hearts in the United States is accomplished by an algorithm based on status, time waited, and geographic boundaries. Although not designed to always transplant the highest acuity candidates, the ability of current United Network for Organ Sharing policies to prioritize highest acuity candidates is unknown. METHODS: We analyzed 32,866 adult match runs generated from 2007 to 2014. Each candidate's sequence number within a match run was compared with the candidate's risk of mortality using Kendall's tau-b-a measure of rank correlation. Two primary methods of evaluating risk of mortality were used: status designation-based risk (i.e., status 1A risk > status 1B > status 2) and status justification-based risk (e.g., status 1A justified by presence of a complication). RESULTS: Median sequence number for transplanted candidates was 3 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1, 9). Median correlation among match runs for status-based risk was 0.57 (IQR: 0.47, 0.66) and for justification-based risk was 0.51 (IQR: 0.39, 0.60). Sensitivity to status 2 candidates was evident when status 2 candidates were removed from the sample (status-based tau-b = 0.31, justification-based tau-b = 0.1) and with restriction of the data set to only the first 20 candidates (status-based tau-b = 0.35, justification-based tau-b = 0.15). CONCLUSIONS: There is only mild correlation between status and priority under the current allocation algorithm and poor concordance when more detailed risks are considered. The geographic allocation rule is responsible for most of the measured discordance.