Prediction of weight loss and regain following dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacologic intervention.

To develop statistical models for predicting weight loss and regain, we analyzed the phenotypic responses in an outpatient study of 60 obese subjects randomized to one of three 12-week interventions, diet (-600 kcal) alone, diet with exercise, and diet with sibutramine. This was followed by 12 weeks of observation. The best of the "baseline covariates" models was one that incorporated intervention group and baseline homeostasis model assessment-estimated insulin resistance (HOMA(IR)). It predicted week 12 weight change with R(2) of 0.38 and root mean square error (√MSE) of 2.92 kg. An alternative model incorporating baseline fat mass plus change in weight and HOMA(IR) at week 4 improved the prediction (R(2), 0.67, √MSE, 2.19 kg). We could not identify a satisfactory model to predict weight regain. We conclude that prediction of weight loss over 12 weeks is significantly improved when short-term weight change is incorporated into the model. This information could be utilized to forecast the success of a weight-loss program and to motivate and contribute to innovative designing of obesity trials.

Pragmatic study of orlistat 60 mg on abdominal obesity.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: It is well established that combining a reduced calorie, low-fat diet with the lipase inhibitor orlistat results in significantly greater weight loss than placebo plus diet. This weight loss is accompanied by changes in adipose tissue (AT) distribution. As 60 mg orlistat is now available as an over-the-counter medication, the primary objective of this study was to determine whether 60 mg orlistat is effective as a weight loss option in a free-living community population with minimal professional input. METHODS: AT and ectopic lipid content were measured using magnetic resonance imaging and (1)H MR spectroscopy, respectively, in 27 subjects following 3 months treatment with orlistat 60 mg and a reduced calorie, low-fat diet. RESULTS: Significant reductions in intra-abdominal AT (-10.6%, P=0.023), subcutaneous (-11.7% P<0.0001) and pericardial fat (-9.8%, P=0.034) volumes and intrahepatocellular lipids (-43.3%, P=0.0003) were observed. These changes in body fat content and distribution were accompanied by improvements in plasma lipids and decreases in blood pressure and heart rate. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that over-the-counter 60 mg orlistat, in combination with the type of advice a subject could expect to be given when obtaining 60 mg orlistat in a community setting, does indeed result in potentially clinically beneficial changes in body composition and risk factors for metabolic diseases.