More than greening: Using a novel index to assess restorative nature and vulnerability relationships.

Urban living limits access to nature yet spending time in nature is crucial for human health and well-being. To overcome this, urban planners and policymakers are actively looking for different ways to conserve and create more urban nature through parks, street trees, and other greening strategies. However, research shows that in most cities, these greening efforts are not equitably distributed, nor are they equal in terms of their quality or benefits they provide. Creating more equitable access to urban nature is a challenge and a priority in the next decade, and so is improving the quality of urban nature and associated benefits for urbanites. To address this challenge and contribute at both practical and conceptual levels, we propose a new Local Restorative Nature (LRN) index for geospatially assessing the "restorative quality" of urban nature that can support mental well-being. To contextualize the LRN index, we map the distribution of restorative nature in relation to social vulnerability in Vancouver, Canada. The novel LRN index provides critical insights showing that many neighborhoods with vulnerable populations in Vancouver have less exposure to restorative nature to support mental health and highlights where to strategically prioritize urban greening investment in areas that need it the most. The LRN index is scalable and can be used by urban planners in other cities and contexts to improve equitable distribution of restorative nature and better support urbanites' well-being.

Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia.

Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for 'extensive cattle ranching', 'agro-silvopastoral use' and 'intensive cattle ranching and agriculture'. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land management decisions in the Chiquitania and other tropical forest landscapes to better anticipate and manage large wildfires in the future.