Global collision-risk hotspots of marine traffic and the world's largest fish, the whale shark.

Marine traffic is increasing globally yet collisions with endangered megafauna such as whales, sea turtles, and planktivorous sharks go largely undetected or unreported. Collisions leading to mortality can have population-level consequences for endangered species. Hence, identifying simultaneous space use of megafauna and shipping throughout ranges may reveal as-yet-unknown spatial targets requiring conservation. However, global studies tracking megafauna and shipping occurrences are lacking. Here we combine satellite-tracked movements of the whale shark, Rhincodon typus, and vessel activity to show that 92% of sharks' horizontal space use and nearly 50% of vertical space use overlap with persistent large vessel (>300 gross tons) traffic. Collision-risk estimates correlated with reported whale shark mortality from ship strikes, indicating higher mortality in areas with greatest overlap. Hotspots of potential collision risk were evident in all major oceans, predominantly from overlap with cargo and tanker vessels, and were concentrated in gulf regions, where dense traffic co-occurred with seasonal shark movements. Nearly a third of whale shark hotspots overlapped with the highest collision-risk areas, with the last known locations of tracked sharks coinciding with busier shipping routes more often than expected. Depth-recording tags provided evidence for sinking, likely dead, whale sharks, suggesting substantial "cryptic" lethal ship strikes are possible, which could explain why whale shark population declines continue despite international protection and low fishing-induced mortality. Mitigation measures to reduce ship-strike risk should be considered to conserve this species and other ocean giants that are likely experiencing similar impacts from growing global vessel traffic.

Effects of climate warming on energetics and habitat of the world's largest marine ectotherm.

Responses of organisms to climate warming are variable and complex. Effects on species distributions are already evident and mean global surface ocean temperatures are likely to warm by up to 4.1 °C by 2100, substantially impacting the physiology and distributions of ectotherms. The largest marine ectotherm, the whale shark Rhincodon typus, broadly prefers sea surface temperatures (SST) ranging from 23 to 30 °C. Whole-species distribution models have projected a poleward range shift under future scenarios of climate change, but these models do not consider intraspecific variation or phenotypic plasticity in thermal limits when modelling species responses, and the impact of climate warming on the energetic requirements of whale sharks is unknown. Using a dataset of 111 whale shark movement tracks from aggregation sites in five countries across the Indian Ocean and the latest Earth-system modelling produced from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we examined how SST and total zooplankton biomass, their main food source, may change in the future, and what this means for the energetic balance and extent of suitable habitat for whale sharks. Earth System Models, under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), project that by 2100 mean SST in four regions where whale shark aggregations are found will increase by up to 4.9 °C relative to the present, while zooplankton biomass will decrease. This reduction in zooplankton is projected to be accompanied by an increase in the energetic requirements of whale sharks because warmer water temperatures will increase their metabolic rate. We found marked differences in projected changes in the extent of suitable habitat when comparing a whole-species distribution model to one including regional variation. This suggests that the conventional approach of combining data from different regions within a species' distribution could underestimate the amount of local adaptation in populations, although parameterising local models could also suffer from having insufficient data and lead to model mis-specification or highly uncertain estimates. Our study highlights the need for further research into whale shark thermal tolerances and energetics, the complexities involved in projecting species responses to climate change, and the potential importance of considering intraspecific variation when building species distribution models.

Identifying priority sites for whale shark ship collision management globally.

The expansion of the world's merchant fleet poses a great threat to the ocean's biodiversity. Collisions between ships and marine megafauna can have population-level consequences for vulnerable species. The Endangered whale shark (Rhincodon typus) shares a circumglobal distribution with this expanding fleet and tracking of movement pathways has shown that large vessel collisions pose a major threat to the species. However, it is not yet known whether they are also at risk within aggregation sites, where up to 400 individuals can gather to feed on seasonal bursts of planktonic productivity. These "constellation" sites are of significant ecological, socio-economic and cultural value. Here, through expert elicitation, we gathered information from most known constellation sites for this species across the world (>50 constellations and >13,000 individual whale sharks). We defined the spatial boundaries of these sites and their overlap with shipping traffic. Sites were then ranked based on relative levels of potential collision danger posed to whale sharks in the area. Our results showed that researchers and resource managers may underestimate the threat posed by large ship collisions due to a lack of direct evidence, such as injuries or witness accounts, which are available for other, sub-lethal threat categories. We found that constellations in the Arabian Sea and adjacent waters, the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf of California, and Southeast and East Asia, had the greatest level of collision threat. We also identified 39 sites where peaks in shipping activity coincided with peak seasonal occurrences of whale sharks, sometimes across several months. Simulated collision mitigation options estimated potentially minimal impact to industry, as most whale shark core habitat areas were small. Given the threat posed by vessel collisions, a coordinated, multi-national approach to mitigation is needed within priority whale shark habitats to ensure collision protection for the species.