Programme theories to describe how different general practitioner service models work in different contexts in or alongside emergency departments (GP-ED): realist evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Addressing increasing patient demand and improving ED patient flow is a key ambition for NHS England. Delivering general practitioner (GP) services in or alongside EDs (GP-ED) was advocated in 2017 for this reason, supported by £100 million (US$130 million) of capital funding. Current evidence shows no overall improvement in addressing demand and reducing waiting times, but considerable variation in how different service models operate, subject to local context. METHODS: We conducted mixed-methods analysis using inductive and deductive approaches for qualitative (observations, interviews) and quantitative data (time series analyses of attendances, reattendances, hospital admissions, length of stay) based on previous research using a purposive sample of 13 GP-ED service models (3 inside-integrated, 4 inside-parallel service, 3 outside-onsite and 3 with no GPs) in England and Wales. We used realist methodology to understand the relationship between contexts, mechanisms and outcomes to develop programme theories about how and why different GP-ED service models work. RESULTS: GP-ED service models are complex, with variation in scope and scale of the service, influenced by individual, departmental and external factors. Quantitative data were of variable quality: overall, no reduction in attendances and waiting times, a mixed picture for hospital admissions and length of hospital stay. Our programme theories describe how the GP-ED service models operate: inside the ED, integrated with patient flow and general ED demand, with a wider GP role than usual primary care; outside the ED, addressing primary care demand with an experienced streaming nurse facilitating the 'right patients' are streamed to the GP; or within the ED as a parallel service with most variability in the level of integration and GP role. CONCLUSION: GP-ED services are complex . Our programme theories inform recommendations on how services could be modified in particular contexts to address local demand, or whether alternative healthcare services should be considered.

Learning from diagnostic errors to improve patient safety when GPs work in or alongside emergency departments: incorporating realist methodology into patient safety incident report analysis.

BACKGROUND: Increasing demand on emergency healthcare systems has prompted introduction of new healthcare service models including the provision of GP services in or alongside emergency departments. In England this led to a policy proposal and £100million (US$130million) of funding for all emergency departments to have co-located GP services. However, there is a lack of evidence for whether such service models are effective and safe. We examined diagnostic errors reported in patient safety incident reports to develop theories to explain how and why they occurred to inform potential priority areas for improvement and inform qualitative data collection at case study sites to further refine the theories. METHODS: We used a mixed-methods design using exploratory descriptive analysis to identify the most frequent and harmful sources of diagnostic error and thematic analysis, incorporating realist methodology to refine theories from an earlier rapid realist review, to describe how and why the events occurred and could be mitigated, to inform improvement recommendations. We used two UK data sources: Coroners' reports to prevent future deaths (30.7.13-14.08.18) and National Reporting and Learning System (NRLS) patient safety incident reports (03.01.05-30.11.15). RESULTS: Nine Coroners' reports (from 1347 community and hospital reports, 2013-2018) and 217 NRLS reports (from 13 million, 2005-2015) were identified describing diagnostic error related to GP services in or alongside emergency departments. Initial theories to describe potential priority areas for improvement included: difficulty identifying appropriate patients for the GP service; under-investigation and misinterpretation of diagnostic tests; and inadequate communication and referral pathways between the emergency and GP services. High-risk presentations included: musculoskeletal injury, chest pain, headache, calf pain and sick children. CONCLUSION: Initial theories include the following topics as potential priority areas for improvement interventions and evaluation to minimise the risk of diagnostic errors when GPs work in or alongside emergency departments: a standardised initial assessment with streaming guidance based on local service provision; clinical decision support for high-risk conditions; and standardised computer systems, communication and referral pathways between emergency and GP services. These theories require refinement and testing with qualitative data collection from case study (hospital) sites.

Bending the quality curve.

With this paper, we initiate the Supplement on Deepening our Understanding of Quality in Australia (DUQuA). DUQuA is an at-scale, cross-sectional research programme examining the quality activities in 32 large hospitals across Australia. It is based on, with suitable modifications and extensions, the Deepening our Understanding of Quality improvement in Europe (DUQuE) research programme, also published as a Supplement in this Journal, in 2014. First, we briefly discuss key data about Australia, the health of its population and its health system. Then, to provide context for the work, we discuss previous activities on the quality of care and improvement leading up to the DUQuA studies. Next, we present a selection of key interventional studies and policy and institutional initiatives to date. Finally, we conclude by outlining, in brief, the aims and scope of the articles that follow in the Supplement. This first article acts as a framing vehicle for the DUQuA studies as a whole. Aggregated, the series of papers collectively attempts an answer to the questions: what is the relationship between quality strategies, both hospital-wide and at department level? and what are the relationships between the way care is organised, and the actual quality of care as delivered? Papers in the Supplement deal with a multiplicity of issues including: how the DUQuA investigators made progress over time, what the results mean in context, the scales designed or modified along the way for measuring the quality of care, methodological considerations and provision of lessons learnt for the benefit of future researchers.

Diagnostic error in the emergency department: learning from national patient safety incident report analysis.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic error occurs more frequently in the emergency department than in regular in-patient hospital care. We sought to characterise the nature of reported diagnostic error in hospital emergency departments in England and Wales from 2013 to 2015 and to identify the priority areas for intervention to reduce their occurrence. METHODS: A cross-sectional mixed-methods design using an exploratory descriptive analysis and thematic analysis of patient safety incident reports. Primary data were extracted from a national database of patient safety incidents. Reports were filtered for emergency department settings, diagnostic error (as classified by the reporter), from 2013 to 2015. These were analysed for the chain of events, contributory factors and harm outcomes. RESULTS: There were 2288 cases of confirmed diagnostic error: 1973 (86%) delayed and 315 (14%) wrong diagnoses. One in seven incidents were reported to have severe harm or death. Fractures were the most common condition (44%), with cervical-spine and neck of femur the most frequent types. Other common conditions included myocardial infarctions (7%) and intracranial bleeds (6%). Incidents involving both delayed and wrong diagnoses were associated with insufficient assessment, misinterpretation of diagnostic investigations and failure to order investigations. Contributory factors were predominantly human factors, including staff mistakes, healthcare professionals' inadequate skillset or knowledge and not following protocols. CONCLUSIONS: Systems modifications are needed that provide clinicians with better support in performing patient assessment and investigation interpretation. Interventions to reduce diagnostic error need to be evaluated in the emergency department setting, and could include standardised checklists, structured reporting and technological investigation improvements.

Classification of patient-safety incidents in primary care.

Primary care lags behind secondary care in the reporting of, and learning from, incidents that put patient safety at risk. In primary care, there is no universally agreed approach to classifying the severity of harm arising from such patient-safety incidents. This lack of an agreed approach limits learning that could lead to the prevention of injury to patients. In a review of research on patient safety in primary care, we identified 21 existing approaches to the classification of harm severity. Using the World Health Organization's (WHO's) International Classification for Patient Safety as a reference, we undertook a framework analysis of these approaches. We then developed a new system for the classification of harm severity. To assess and classify harm, most existing approaches use measures of symptom duration (11/21), symptom severity (11/21) and/or the level of intervention required to manage the harm (14/21). However, few of these approaches account for the deleterious effects of hospitalization or the psychological stress that may be experienced by patients and/or their relatives. The new classification system we developed builds on WHO's International Classification for Patient Safety and takes account not only of hospitalization and psychological stress but also of so-called near misses and uncertain outcomes. The constructs we have outlined have the potential to be applied internationally, across primary-care settings, to improve both the detection and prevention of incidents that cause the most severe harm to patients.

Les soins primaires ont du retard sur les soins secondaires en ce qui concerne l'établissement de rapports sur les incidents qui menacent la sécurité des patients et les enseignements qui en découlent. Dans le cas des soins primaires, il n'existe pas de méthode universellement acceptée pour classifier la gravité des dommages résultant d'incidents liés à la sécurité des patients. L'absence d'une telle méthode limite les enseignements qui pourraient favoriser la prévention des traumatismes chez les patients. Dans le cadre d'une analyse documentaire sur la sécurité des patients en matière de soins primaires, nous avons repéré l'existence de 21 méthodes de classification de la gravité des dommages. En prenant comme référence la Classification internationale pour la sécurité des patients de l'Organisation mondiale de la Santé (OMS), nous avons entrepris une analyse du cadre de ces méthodes. Nous avons ensuite conçu un nouveau système de classification de la gravité des dommages. Pour évaluer et classifier les dommages, la plupart des méthodes existantes utilisent des mesures portant sur la durée des symptômes (11/21), la gravité des symptômes (11/21) et/ou le niveau d'intervention requis pour prendre en charge les dommages (14/21). Néanmoins, rares sont celles qui tiennent compte des effets délétères de l'hospitalisation ou du stress psychologique que peuvent ressentir les patients et/ou leurs proches. Le nouveau système de classification que nous avons élaboré repose sur la Classification internationale pour la sécurité des patients de l'OMS et tient compte non seulement de l'hospitalisation et du stress psychologique, mais aussi de ce qu'il est convenu d'appeler les accidents évités de justesse et des résultats incertains. Les concepts que nous avons définis peuvent être appliqués dans les établissements de soins primaires du monde entier pour améliorer la détection et la prévention des incidents qui provoquent les plus graves dommages pour les patients.

La atención primaria queda por debajo de la atención secundaria en la notificación y el aprendizaje de incidentes que ponen en riesgo la seguridad del paciente. En la atención primaria, no existe un enfoque universalmente aceptado para clasificar la gravedad del daño que surge de tales incidentes que afectan a la seguridad del paciente. Esta falta de un enfoque consensuado limita el aprendizaje que podría conducir a la prevención de lesiones a los pacientes. En una revisión de la investigación sobre la seguridad del paciente en la atención primaria, se identificaron 21 enfoques existentes para la clasificación de la gravedad del daño. Con la Clasificación Internacional para la Seguridad del Paciente de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) como referencia, se llevó a cabo un análisis del marco de estos enfoques. A continuación, se desarrolló un nuevo sistema para la clasificación de la gravedad del daño. Para evaluar y clasificar el daño, la mayoría de los enfoques existentes usan medidas de la duración de los síntomas (11/21), la gravedad de los síntomas (11/21) y/o el nivel de intervención necesario para gestionar el daño (14/21). Sin embargo, pocos de estos enfoques explican los efectos nocivos de la hospitalización o el estrés psicológico que pueden experimentar los pacientes y/o sus familiares. El nuevo sistema de clasificación desarrollado se basa en la Clasificación Internacional para la Seguridad del Paciente de la OMS y tiene en cuenta no solo la hospitalización y el estrés psicológico, sino también los denominados casi accidentes y los resultados inciertos. Los constructos descritos tienen el potencial de aplicarse internacionalmente, en entornos de atención primaria, para mejorar tanto la detección como la prevención de incidentes que causan los daños más graves a los pacientes.

Patient safety in palliative care: A mixed-methods study of reports to a national database of serious incidents.

BACKGROUND: Patients receiving palliative care are vulnerable to patient safety incidents but little is known about the extent of harm caused or the origins of unsafe care in this population. AIM: To quantify and qualitatively analyse serious incident reports in order to understand the causes and impact of unsafe care in a population receiving palliative care. DESIGN: A mixed-methods approach was used. Following quantification of type of incidents and their location, a qualitative analysis using a modified framework method was used to interpret themes in reports to examine the underlying causes and the nature of resultant harms. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Reports to a national database of 'serious incidents requiring investigation' involving patients receiving palliative care in the National Health Service (NHS) in England during the 12-year period, April 2002 to March 2014. RESULTS: A total of 475 reports were identified: 266 related to pressure ulcers, 91 to medication errors, 46 to falls, 21 to healthcare-associated infections (HCAIs), 18 were other instances of disturbed dying, 14 were allegations against health professions, 8 transfer incidents, 6 suicides and 5 other concerns. The frequency of report types differed according to the care setting. Underlying causes included lack of palliative care experience, under-resourcing and poor service coordination. Resultant harms included worsened symptoms, disrupted dying, serious injury and hastened death. CONCLUSION: Unsafe care presents a risk of significant harm to patients receiving palliative care. Improvements in the coordination of care delivery alongside wider availability of specialist palliative care support may reduce this risk.

Quality of Health Care for Children in Australia, 2012-2013.

Importance: The quality of routine care for children is rarely assessed, and then usually in single settings or for single clinical conditions. Objective: To estimate the quality of health care for children in Australia in inpatient and ambulatory health care settings. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multistage stratified sample with medical record review to assess adherence with quality indicators extracted from clinical practice guidelines for 17 common, high-burden clinical conditions (noncommunicable [n = 5], mental health [n = 4], acute infection [n = 7], and injury [n = 1]), such as asthma, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, tonsillitis, and head injury. For these 17 conditions, 479 quality indicators were identified, with the number varying by condition, ranging from 9 for eczema to 54 for head injury. Four hundred medical records were targeted for sampling for each of 15 conditions while 267 records were targeted for anxiety and 133 for depression. Within each selected medical record, all visits for the 17 targeted conditions were identified, and separate quality assessments made for each. Care was evaluated for 6689 children 15 years of age and younger who had 15 240 visits to emergency departments, for inpatient admissions, or to pediatricians and general practitioners in selected urban and rural locations in 3 Australian states. These visits generated 160 202 quality indicator assessments. Exposures: Quality indicators were identified through a systematic search of local and international guidelines. Individual indicators were extracted from guidelines and assessed using a 2-stage Delphi process. Main Outcomes and Measures: Quality of care for each clinical condition and overall. Results: Of 6689 children with surveyed medical records, 53.6% were aged 0 to 4 years and 55.5% were male. Adherence to quality of care indicators was estimated at 59.8% (95% CI, 57.5%-62.0%; n = 160 202) across the 17 conditions, ranging from a high of 88.8% (95% CI, 83.0%-93.1%; n = 2638) for autism to a low of 43.5% (95% CI, 36.8%-50.4%; n = 2354) for tonsillitis. The mean adherence by condition category was estimated as 60.5% (95% CI, 57.2%-63.8%; n = 41 265) for noncommunicable conditions (range, 52.8%-75.8%); 82.4% (95% CI, 79.0%-85.5%; n = 14 622) for mental health conditions (range, 71.5%-88.8%); 56.3% (95% CI, 53.2%-59.4%; n = 94 037) for acute infections (range, 43.5%-69.8%); and 78.3% (95% CI, 75.1%-81.2%; n = 10 278) for injury. Conclusions and Relevance: Among a sample of children receiving care in Australia in 2012-2013, the overall prevalence of adherence to quality of care indicators for important conditions was not high. For many of these conditions, the quality of care may be inadequate.

Patient Safety Incidents Involving Sick Children in Primary Care in England and Wales: A Mixed Methods Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The UK performs poorly relative to other economically developed countries on numerous indicators of care quality for children. The contribution of iatrogenic harm to these outcomes is unclear. As primary care is the first point of healthcare contact for most children, we sought to investigate the safety of care provided to children in this setting. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We undertook a mixed methods investigation of reports of primary care patient safety incidents involving sick children from England and Wales' National Reporting and Learning System between 1 January 2005 and 1 December 2013. Two reviewers independently selected relevant incident reports meeting prespecified criteria, and then descriptively analyzed these reports to identify the most frequent and harmful incident types. This was followed by an in-depth thematic analysis of a purposive sample of reports to understand the reasons underpinning incidents. Key candidate areas for strengthening primary care provision and reducing the risks of systems failures were then identified through multidisciplinary discussions. Of 2,191 safety incidents identified from 2,178 reports, 30% (n = 658) were harmful, including 12 deaths and 41 cases of severe harm. The children involved in these incidents had respiratory conditions (n = 387; 18%), injuries (n = 289; 13%), nonspecific signs and symptoms, e.g., fever (n = 281; 13%), and gastrointestinal or genitourinary conditions (n = 268; 12%), among others. Priority areas for improvement included safer systems for medication provision in community pharmacies; triage processes to enable effective and timely assessment, diagnosis, and referral of acutely sick children attending out-of-hours services; and enhanced communication for robust safety netting between professionals and parents. The main limitations of this study result from underreporting of safety incidents and variable data quality. Our findings therefore require further exploration in longitudinal studies utilizing case review methods. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights opportunities to reduce iatrogenic harm and avoidable child deaths. Globally, healthcare systems with primary-care-led models of delivery must now examine their existing practices to determine the prevalence and burden of these priority safety issues, and utilize improvement methods to achieve sustainable improvements in care quality.

Nature of Blame in Patient Safety Incident Reports: Mixed Methods Analysis of a National Database.

PURPOSE: A culture of blame and fear of retribution are recognized barriers to reporting patient safety incidents. The extent of blame attribution in safety incident reports, which may reflect the underlying safety culture of health care systems, is unknown. This study set out to explore the nature of blame in family practice safety incident reports. METHODS: We characterized a random sample of family practice patient safety incident reports from the England and Wales National Reporting and Learning System. Reports were analyzed according to prespecified classification systems to describe the incident type, contributory factors, outcomes, and severity of harm. We developed a taxonomy of blame attribution, and we then used descriptive statistical analyses to identify the proportions of blame types and to explore associations between incident characteristics and one type of blame. RESULTS: Health care professionals making family practice incident reports attributed blame to a person in 45% of cases (n = 975 of 2,148; 95% CI, 43%-47%). In 36% of cases, those who reported the incidents attributed fault to another person, whereas 2% of those reporting acknowledged personal responsibility. Blame was commonly associated with incidents where a complaint was anticipated. CONCLUSIONS: The high frequency of blame in these safety, incident reports may reflect a health care culture that leads to blame and retribution, rather than to identifying areas for learning and improvement, and a failure to appreciate the contribution of system factors in others' behavior. Successful improvement in patient safety through the analysis of incident reports is unlikely without achieving a blame-free culture.

Sources of unsafe primary care for older adults: a mixed-methods analysis of patient safety incident reports.

Background: older adults are frequent users of primary healthcare services, but are at increased risk of healthcare-related harm in this setting. Objectives: to describe the factors associated with actual or potential harm to patients aged 65 years and older, treated in primary care, to identify action to produce safer care. Design and Setting: a cross-sectional mixed-methods analysis of a national (England and Wales) database of patient safety incident reports from 2005 to 2013. Subjects: 1,591 primary care patient safety incident reports regarding patients aged 65 years and older. Methods: we developed a classification system for the analysis of patient safety incident reports to describe: the incident and preceding chain of incidents; other contributory factors; and patient harm outcome. We combined findings from exploratory descriptive and thematic analyses to identify key sources of unsafe care. Results: the main sources of unsafe care in our weighted sample were due to: medication-related incidents e.g. prescribing, dispensing and administering (n = 486, 31%; 15% serious patient harm); communication-related incidents e.g. incomplete or non-transfer of information across care boundaries (n = 390, 25%; 12% serious patient harm); and clinical decision-making incidents which led to the most serious patient harm outcomes (n = 203, 13%; 41% serious patient harm). Conclusion: priority areas for further research to determine the burden and preventability of unsafe primary care for older adults, include: the timely electronic tools for prescribing, dispensing and administering medication in the community; electronic transfer of information between healthcare settings; and, better clinical decision-making support and guidance.

Deaths following prehospital safety incidents: an analysis of a national database.

INTRODUCTION: Ensuring patient safety in the prehospital environment is difficult due to the unpredictable nature of the workload and the uncontrolled situations that care is provided in. Studying previous safety incidents can help understand risks and take action to mitigate them. We present an analysis of safety incidents related to patient deaths in ambulance services in England. METHODS: All incidents related to a patient death reported to the National Reporting and Learning System from an ambulance service between 1 June 2010 and 31 October 2012 were subjected to thematic analysis to identify the failings that led to the incident. RESULTS: Sixty-nine incidents were analysed, equating to one safety incident-related death per 168 000 calls received. Just three event categories were identified: delayed response (59%, 41/69), shortfalls in clinical care (35%, 24/69) and injury during transit (6%, 4/69). Primary failures differed for the categories: problems with dispatch caused the majority of delays in response, with equipment problems and bad weather accounting for the remainder. Failure to provide necessary care was predominantly caused by clinical misjudgements by ambulance staff and equipment issues underlay incidents that led to a patient injury. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements intended to address safety related mortality in the ambulance service should include ensuring adequate equipping and resourcing of ambulance services, improving coordination and decision-making during dispatch and supporting individual staff members in the difficult decisions they are faced with.

Do Learned Alarm Sounds Interfere With Working Memory?

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether identifying (or ignoring) learned alarm sounds interferes with performance on a task involving working memory. BACKGROUND: A number of researchers have suggested that auditory alarms could interfere with working memory in complex task environments, and this could serve as a caution against their use. Changing auditory information has been shown to interfere with serial recall, even when the auditory information is to be ignored. However, previous researchers have not examined well-learned patterns, such as familiar alarms. METHOD: One group of participants learned a set of alarms (either a melody, a rhythmic pulse, or a spoken nonword phrase) and subsequently undertook a digits-forward task in three conditions (no alarms, identify the alarm, or ignore the alarm). A comparison group undertook the baseline and ignore conditions but had no prior exposure to the alarms. RESULTS: All alarms interfered with serial recall when participants were asked to identify them; however, only the nonword phrase interfered with recall when ignored. Moreover, there was no difference between trained and untrained participants in terms of recall performance when ignoring the alarms, suggesting that previous training does not make alarms less ignorable. CONCLUSION: Identifying any alarm sound may interfere with immediate working memory; however, spoken alarms may interfere even when ignored. APPLICATION: It is worth considering the importance of alarms in environments requiring high working memory performance and in particular avoiding spoken alarms in such environments.

Oversight role of the Independent Monitoring Board of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) established its Independent Monitoring Board (IMB) in 2010 to monitor and guide its progress toward stopping polio transmission globally. The concept of an IMB is innovative, with no clear analogue in the history of the GPEI or in any other global health program. The IMB meets with senior program officials every 3-6 months. Its reports provide analysis and recommendations about individual polio-affected countries. The IMB also examines issues affecting the global program as a whole. Its areas of focus have included escalating the level of priority afforded to polio eradication (particularly by recommending a World Health Assembly resolution to declare polio eradication a programmatic emergency, which was enacted in May 2012), placing greater emphasis on people factors in the delivery of the program, encouraging innovation, strengthening focus on the small number of so-called sanctuaries where polio persists, and continuous quality improvement to reach every missed child with vaccination. The IMB's true independence from the agencies and countries delivering the program has enabled it to raise difficult issues that others cannot. Other global health programs might benefit from establishing similar independent monitoring mechanisms.

Patient-safety-related hospital deaths in England: thematic analysis of incidents reported to a national database, 2010-2012.

BACKGROUND: Hospital mortality is increasingly being regarded as a key indicator of patient safety, yet methodologies for assessing mortality are frequently contested and seldom point directly to areas of risk and solutions. The aim of our study was to classify reports of deaths due to unsafe care into broad areas of systemic failure capable of being addressed by stronger policies, procedures, and practices. The deaths were reported to a patient safety incident reporting system after mandatory reporting of such incidents was introduced. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The UK National Health Service database was searched for incidents resulting in a reported death of an adult over the period of the study. The study population comprised 2,010 incidents involving patients aged 16 y and over in acute hospital settings. Each incident report was reviewed by two of the authors, and, by scrutinising the structured information together with the free text, a main reason for the harm was identified and recorded as one of 18 incident types. These incident types were then aggregated into six areas of apparent systemic failure: mismanagement of deterioration (35%), failure of prevention (26%), deficient checking and oversight (11%), dysfunctional patient flow (10%), equipment-related errors (6%), and other (12%). The most common incident types were failure to act on or recognise deterioration (23%), inpatient falls (10%), healthcare-associated infections (10%), unexpected per-operative death (6%), and poor or inadequate handover (5%). Analysis of these 2,010 fatal incidents reveals patterns of issues that point to actionable areas for improvement. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach demonstrates the potential utility of patient safety incident reports in identifying areas of service failure and highlights opportunities for corrective action to save lives.

Reducing the burden of surgical harm: a systematic review of the interventions used to reduce adverse events in surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To perform a systematic review of interventions used to reduce adverse events in surgery. BACKGROUND: Many interventions, which aim to improve patient safety in surgery, have been introduced to hospitals. Little is known about which methods provide a measurable decrease in morbidity and mortality. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases were searched from inception to Week 19, 2012, for systematic reviews, randomized controlled trials (RCTs), and cross-sectional and cohort studies, which reported an intervention aimed toward reducing the incidence of adverse events in surgical patients. The quality of observational studies was measured using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. RCTs were assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration's tool for assessing risk of bias. RESULTS: Ninety-one studies met inclusion criteria, 26 relating to structural interventions, 66 described modifying process factors. Only 17 (of 42 medium to high quality studies) reported an intervention that produced a significant decrease in morbidity and mortality. Structural interventions were: improving nurse to patient ratios (P = 0.008) and Intensive Care Unit (ITU) physician involvement in postoperative care (P < 0.05). Subspecialization in surgery reduced technical complications (P < 0.01). Effective process interventions were submission of outcome data to national audit (P < 0.05), use of safety checklists (P < 0.05), and adherence to a care pathway (P < 0.05). Certain safety technology significantly reduced harm (P = 0.02), and team training had a positive effect on patient outcome (P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Only a small cohort of medium- to high-quality interventions effectively reduce surgical harm and are feasible to implement. It is important that future research remains focused on demonstrating a measurable reduction in adverse events from patient safety initiatives.

Epidemiology of lifetime fracture prevalence in England: a population study of adults aged 55 years and over.

BACKGROUND: fractures remain a substantial public health problem but epidemiological studies using survey data are sparse. This study explores the association between lifetime fracture prevalence and socio-demographic factors, health behaviours and health conditions. METHODS: fracture prevalence was calculated using a combined dataset of annual, nationally representative health surveys in England (2002-07) containing 24,725 adults aged 55 years and over. Odds of reporting any fracture was estimated separately for each gender using logistic regression. RESULTS: fracture prevalence was higher in men than women (49 and 40%, respectively). In men, factors having a significant independent association with fracture included being a former regular smoker [odds ratios, OR: 1.18 (1.06-1.31)], having a limiting long-standing illness [OR: 1.47 (1.31-1.66)] and consuming >8 units of alcohol on the heaviest drinking day in the past week [OR: 1.65 (1.37-1.98)]. In women, significant factors included being separated/divorced [OR: 1.30 (1.10-1.55)], having a 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) score of 4+ [OR: 1.59 (1.27-2.00)], consuming >6 units of alcohol in the past week [OR: 2.07 (1.28-3.35)] and being obese [OR: 1.25 (1.03-1.51)]. CONCLUSION: a range of socio-demographic, health behaviour and health conditions, known to increase the risk of chronic disease and premature death, are also associated with fracture occurrence, probably involving the aetiological pathways of poor bone health and fall-related trauma.

Evaluation of different models of general practitioners working in or alongside emergency departments: a mixed-methods realist evaluation.

Background: Emergency healthcare services are under intense pressure to meet increasing patient demands. Many patients presenting to emergency departments could be managed by general practitioners in general practitioner-emergency department service models. Objectives: To evaluate the effectiveness, safety, patient experience and system implications of the different general practitioner-emergency department models. Design: Mixed-methods realist evaluation. Methods: Phase 1 (2017-8), to understand current practice: rapid realist literature review, national survey and follow-up key informant interviews, national stakeholder event and safety data analysis. Phase 2 (2018-21), to collect and analyse qualitative (observations, interviews) and quantitative data (time series analysis); cost-consequences analysis of routine data; and case site data for 'marker condition' analysis from a purposive sample of 13 case sites in England and Wales. Phase 3 (2021-2), to conduct mixed-methods analysis for programme theory and toolkit development. Results: General practitioners commonly work in emergency departments, but delivery models vary widely in terms of the scope of the general practitioner role and the scale of the general practitioner service. We developed a taxonomy to describe general practitioner-emergency department service models (Integrated with the emergency department service, Parallel within the emergency department, Outside the emergency department on the hospital site) and present a programme theory as principal output of the study to describe how these service models were observed to operate. Routine data were of variable quality, limiting our analysis. Time series analysis demonstrated trends across intervention sites for: increased time spent in the emergency department; increased emergency department attendances and reattendances; and mixed results for hospital admissions. Evidence on patient experience was limited but broadly supportive; we identified department-level processes to optimise the safety of general practitioner-emergency department models. Limitations: The quality, heterogeneity and extent of routine emergency department data collection during the study period limited the conclusions. Recruitment was limited by criteria for case sites (time series requirements) and individual patients (with 'marker conditions'). Pandemic and other pressures limited data collection for marker condition analysis. Data collected and analysed were pre pandemic; new approaches such as 'telephone first' and their relevance to our findings remains unexplored. Conclusion: Findings suggest that general practitioner-emergency department service models do not meet the aim of reducing the overall emergency department waiting times and improving patient flow with limited evidence of cost savings. Qualitative data indicated that general practitioners were often valued as members of the wider emergency department team. We have developed a toolkit, based on our findings, to provide guidance for implementing and delivering general practitioner-emergency department services. Future work: The emergency care data set has since been introduced across England to help standardise data collection to facilitate further research. We would advocate the systematic capture of patient experience measures and patient-reported outcome measures as part of routine care. More could be done to support the development of the general practitioner in emergency department role, including a core set of competencies and governance structure, to reflect the different general practitioner-emergency department models and to evaluate the effectiveness and cost effectiveness to guide future policy. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017069741. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 15/145/04) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 10. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Hospital emergency departments are under huge pressure. Patients are waiting many hours to be seen, some with problems that general practitioners could deal with. To reduce waiting times and improve patient care, arrangements have been put in place for general practitioners to work in or alongside emergency departments (general practitioner­emergency department models). We studied the different ways of working to find out what works well, how and for whom. We brought together a lot of information. We reviewed existing evidence, sent out surveys to 184 emergency departments, spent time in the emergency departments observing how they operated and interviewing 106 staff in 13 hospitals and 24 patients who visited those emergency departments. We also looked at statistical information recorded by hospitals. Two public contributors were involved from the beginning, and we held two stakeholder events to ensure the relevance of our research to professionals and patients. Getting reliable figures to compare the various general practitioner­emergency department set-ups (inside, parallel to or outside the emergency department) was difficult. Our findings suggest that over time more people are coming to emergency departments and overall waiting times did not generally improve due to general practitioner­emergency department models. Evidence that general practitioners might admit fewer patients to hospital was mixed, with limited findings of cost savings. Patients were generally supportive of the care they received, although we could not speak to as many patients as we planned. The skills and experience of general practitioners were often valued as members of the wider emergency department team. We identified how the care provided was kept safe with: strong leaders, good communication between different types of staff, highly trained and experienced nurses responsible for streaming and specific training for general practitioners on how they were expected to work. We have produced a guide to help professionals develop and improve general practitioner­emergency department services and we have written easy-to-read summaries of all the articles we published.

Global research priorities to better understand the burden of iatrogenic harm in primary care: an international Delphi exercise.

Using a modified Delphi exercise, Aziz Sheikh and colleagues identify research priorities for patient safety research in primary care contexts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Use of sentiment analysis for capturing patient experience from free-text comments posted online.

BACKGROUND: There are large amounts of unstructured, free-text information about quality of health care available on the Internet in blogs, social networks, and on physician rating websites that are not captured in a systematic way. New analytical techniques, such as sentiment analysis, may allow us to understand and use this information more effectively to improve the quality of health care. OBJECTIVE: We attempted to use machine learning to understand patients' unstructured comments about their care. We used sentiment analysis techniques to categorize online free-text comments by patients as either positive or negative descriptions of their health care. We tried to automatically predict whether a patient would recommend a hospital, whether the hospital was clean, and whether they were treated with dignity from their free-text description, compared to the patient's own quantitative rating of their care. METHODS: We applied machine learning techniques to all 6412 online comments about hospitals on the English National Health Service website in 2010 using Weka data-mining software. We also compared the results obtained from sentiment analysis with the paper-based national inpatient survey results at the hospital level using Spearman rank correlation for all 161 acute adult hospital trusts in England. RESULTS: There was 81%, 84%, and 89% agreement between quantitative ratings of care and those derived from free-text comments using sentiment analysis for cleanliness, being treated with dignity, and overall recommendation of hospital respectively (kappa scores: .40-.74, P<.001 for all). We observed mild to moderate associations between our machine learning predictions and responses to the large patient survey for the three categories examined (Spearman rho 0.37-0.51, P<.001 for all). CONCLUSIONS: The prediction accuracy that we have achieved using this machine learning process suggests that we are able to predict, from free-text, a reasonably accurate assessment of patients' opinion about different performance aspects of a hospital and that these machine learning predictions are associated with results of more conventional surveys.