Virological, serological and clinical outcomes in chronic hepatitis B virus infection: development and validation of the HEPA-B simulation model.

OBJECTIVES: Detailed simulation models are needed to assess strategies for prevention and treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, the world's leading cause of liver disease. We sought to develop and validate a simulation model of chronic HBV that incorporates virological, serological and clinical outcomes. METHODS: We developed a novel Monte Carlo simulation model (the HEPA-B Model) detailing the natural history of chronic HBV. We parameterised the model with epidemiological data from the Western Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa. We simulated the evolution of HBV DNA, 'e' antigen (HBeAg) and surface antigen (HBsAg). We projected incidence of HBeAg loss, HBsAg loss, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death over 10-year and lifetime horizons. We stratified outcomes by five HBV DNA categories at the time of HBeAg loss, ranging from HBV DNA<300 copies/mL to >106 copies/mL. We tested goodness of fit using intraclass coefficients (ICC). RESULTS: Model-projected incidence of HBeAg loss was 5.18% per year over lifetime (ICC, 0.969 (95% CI: 0.728 to 0.990)). For people in HBeAg-negative phases of infection, model-projected HBsAg loss ranged from 0.78% to 3.34% per year depending on HBV DNA level (ICC, 0.889 (95% CI: 0.542 to 0.959)). Model-projected incidence of cirrhosis was 0.29-2.09% per year (ICC, 0.965 (95% CI: 0.942 to 0.979)) and HCC incidence was 0.06-1.65% per year (ICC, 0.977 (95% CI: 0.962 to 0.986)). Over a lifetime simulation of HBV disease, mortality rates were higher for people with older age, higher HBV DNA level and liver-related complications, consistent with observational studies. CONCLUSIONS: We simulated HBV DNA-stratified clinical outcomes with the novel HEPA-B Model and validated them to observational data. This model can be used to examine strategies of HBV prevention and management.

Incidence and Predictors of Tuberculosis-associated IRIS in People With HIV Treated for Tuberculosis: Findings From Reflate TB2 Randomized Trial.

Background: After antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, people with HIV (PWH) treated for tuberculosis (TB) may develop TB-associated immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (TB-IRIS). Integrase inhibitors, by providing a faster HIV-RNA decline than efavirenz, might increase the risk for this complication. We sought to assess incidence and determinants of TB-IRIS in PWH with TB on raltegravir- or efavirenz-based ART. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of the Reflate TB 2 trial, which randomized ART-naive PWH on standard TB treatment, to receive raltegravir- or efavirenz-based ART. The primary objective was to evaluate the incidence of TB-IRIS. Incidence rate ratio comparing TB-IRIS incidence in each arm was calculated. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to compare TB-IRIS-free survival probabilities by ART arm. Cox regression models were fitted to analyze baseline characteristics associated with TB-IRIS. Results: Of 460 trial participants, 453 from Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, Mozambique, and Vietnam were included in this analysis. Baseline characteristics were median age 35 years (interquartile range [IQR], 29-43), 40% female, 69% pulmonary TB only, median CD4, 102 (IQR, 38-239) cells/mm³, and median HIV RNA, 5.5 (IQR, 5.0-5.8) log copies/mL. Forty-eight participants developed TB-IRIS (incidence rate, 24.7/100 PY), 19 cases in the raltegravir arm and 29 in the efavirenz arm (incidence rate ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval .35-1.10). Factors associated with TB-IRIS were: CD4 ≤ 100 cells/µL, HIV RNA ≥500 000 copies/mL, and extrapulmonary/disseminated TB. Conclusions: We did not demonstrate that raltegravir-based ART increased the incidence of TB-IRIS compared with efavirenz-based ART. Low CD4 counts, high HIV RNA, and extrapulmonary/disseminated TB at ART initiation were associated with TB-IRIS.

Efficacy and safety of three antiretroviral therapy regimens for treatment-naive African adults living with HIV-2 (FIT-2): a pilot, phase 2, non-comparative, open-label, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Due to the low number of individuals with HIV-2, no randomised trials of HIV-2 treatment have ever been done. We hypothesised that a non-comparative study describing the outcomes of several antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens in parallel groups would improve understanding of how differences between HIV-1 and HIV-2 might lead to different therapeutic approaches. METHODS: This pilot, phase 2, non-comparative, open-label, randomised controlled trial was done in Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, and Togo. Adults with HIV-2 who were ART naive with CD4 counts of 200 cells per µL or greater were randomly assigned 1:1:1 to one of three treatment groups. A computer-generated sequentially numbered block randomisation list stratified by country was used for online allocation to the next available treatment group. In all groups, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (henceforth tenofovir) was dosed at 245 mg once daily with either emtricitabine at 200 mg once daily or lamivudine at 300 mg once daily. The triple nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) group received zidovudine at 250 mg twice daily. The ritonavir-boosted lopinavir group received lopinavir at 400 mg twice daily boosted with ritonavir at 100 mg twice daily. The raltegravir group received raltegravir at 400 mg twice daily. The primary outcome was the rate of treatment success at week 96, defined as an absence of serious morbidity event during follow-up, plasma HIV-2 RNA less than 50 copies per mL at week 96, and a substantial increase in CD4 cells between baseline and week 96. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02150993, and is closed to new participants. FINDINGS: Between Jan 26, 2016, and June 29, 2017, 210 participants were randomly assigned to treatment groups. Five participants died during the 96 weeks of follow-up (triple NRTI group, n=2; ritonavir-boosted lopinavir group, n=2; and raltegravir group, n=1), eight had a serious morbidity event (triple NRTI group, n=4; ritonavir-boosted lopinavir group, n=3; and raltegravir group, n=1), 17 had plasma HIV-2 RNA of 50 copies per mL or greater at least once (triple NRTI group, n=11; ritonavir-boosted lopinavir group, n=4; and raltegravir group, n=2), 32 (all in the triple NRTI group) switched to another ART regimen, and 18 permanently discontinued ART (triple NRTI group, n=5; ritonavir-boosted lopinavir group, n=7; and raltegravir group, n=6). The Data Safety Monitoring Board recommended premature termination of the triple NRTI regimen for safety reasons. The overall treatment success rate was 57% (95% CI 47-66) in the ritonavir-boosted lopinavir group and 59% (49-68) in the raltegravir group. INTERPRETATION: The raltegravir and ritonavir-boosted lopinavir regimens were efficient and safe in adults with HIV-2. Both regimens could be compared in future phase 3 trials. The results of this pilot study suggest a trend towards better virological and immunological efficacy in the raltegravir-based regimen. FUNDING: ANRS MIE.