Establishing seasonal and alert influenza thresholds in Morocco.

BACKGROUND: Several statistical methods of variable complexity have been developed to establish thresholds for influenza activity that may be used to inform public health guidance. We compared the results of two methods and explored how they worked to characterize the 2018 influenza season performance-2018 season. METHODS: Historical data from the 2005/2006 to 2016/2018 influenza season performance seasons were provided by a network of 412 primary health centers in charge of influenza like illness (ILI) sentinel surveillance. We used the WHO averages and the moving epidemic method (MEM) to evaluate the proportion of ILI visits among all outpatient consultations (ILI%) as a proxy for influenza activity. We also used the MEM method to evaluate three seasons of composite data (ILI% multiplied by percent of ILI with laboratory-confirmed influenza) as recommended by WHO. RESULTS: The WHO method estimated the seasonal ILI% threshold at 0.9%. The annual epidemic period began on average at week 46 and lasted an average of 18 weeks. The MEM model estimated the epidemic threshold (corresponding to the WHO seasonal threshold) at 1.5% of ILI visits among all outpatient consultations. The annual epidemic period began on week 49 and lasted on average 14 weeks. Intensity thresholds were similar using both methods. When using the composite measure, the MEM method showed a clearer estimate of the beginning of the influenza epidemic, which was coincident with a sharp increase in confirmed ILI cases. CONCLUSIONS: We found that the threshold methodology presented in the WHO manual is simple to implement and easy to adopt for use by the Moroccan influenza surveillance system. The MEM method is more statistically sophisticated and may allow a better detection of the start of seasonal epidemics. Incorporation of virologic data into the composite parameter as recommended by WHO has the potential to increase the accuracy of seasonal threshold estimation.

Distribution of influenza virus types by age using case-based global surveillance data from twenty-nine countries, 1999-2014.

BACKGROUND: Influenza disease burden varies by age and this has important public health implications. We compared the proportional distribution of different influenza virus types within age strata using surveillance data from twenty-nine countries during 1999-2014 (N=358,796 influenza cases). METHODS: For each virus, we calculated a Relative Illness Ratio (defined as the ratio of the percentage of cases in an age group to the percentage of the country population in the same age group) for young children (0-4 years), older children (5-17 years), young adults (18-39 years), older adults (40-64 years), and the elderly (65+ years). We used random-effects meta-analysis models to obtain summary relative illness ratios (sRIRs), and conducted meta-regression and sub-group analyses to explore causes of between-estimates heterogeneity. RESULTS: The influenza virus with highest sRIR was A(H1N1) for young children, B for older children, A(H1N1)pdm2009 for adults, and (A(H3N2) for the elderly. As expected, considering the diverse nature of the national surveillance datasets included in our analysis, between-estimates heterogeneity was high (I2>90%) for most sRIRs. The variations of countries' geographic, demographic and economic characteristics and the proportion of outpatients among reported influenza cases explained only part of the heterogeneity, suggesting that multiple factors were at play. CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the importance of presenting burden of disease estimates by age group and virus (sub)type.

2009 Pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 in Morocco, 2009-2010: epidemiology, transmissibility, and factors associated with fatal cases.

BACKGROUND: Following the emergence of 2009 pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 (A[H1N1]pdm09) in the United States and Mexico in April 2009, A(H1N1)pdm09 spread rapidly all over the world. There is a dearth of information about the epidemiology of A(H1N1)pdm09 in Africa, including Morocco. We describe the epidemiologic characteristics of the A(H1N1)pdm09 epidemic in Morocco during 2009-2010, including transmissibility and risk factors associated with fatal disease. METHODS: We implemented influenza surveillance for patients presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI) at 136 private and public clinics for patients with severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) at 16 regional public hospitals from June 2009 through February 2010. Respiratory samples and structured questionnaires were collected from all enrolled patients, and samples were tested by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction for influenza viruses. We estimated the risk factors associated with fatal disease as well as the basic reproduction number (R(0)) and the serial interval of the pandemic virus. RESULTS: From June 2009 through February 2010, we obtained 3937 specimens, of which 1452 tested positive for influenza virus. Of these, 1398 (96%) were A(H1N1)pdm09. Forty percent of specimens from ILI cases (1056 of 2646) and 27% from SARI cases (342 of 1291) were positive for A(H1N1)pdm09. Sixty-four deaths occurred among laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 SARI cases. Among these cases, those who had hypertension (age-adjusted odd ratio [aOR], 28.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0-398.7), had neurological disorders (aOR, 7.5; 95% CI, 1.5-36.4), or were obese (aOR, 7.1; 95% CI, 1.6-31.1), as well as women of gestational age who were pregnant (aOR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.1-5.6), were at increased risk of death. Across the country, elevated numbers of locally acquired infections were detected 4 months after the detection of the first laboratory-confirmed case and coincided with the expected influenza season (October-January) in Morocco. We obtained an R(0) estimate of 1.44 (95% CI, 1.32-1.56) and a mean serial interval (±SD) of 2.3 ± 1.4 days (95% CI, 1.6-3.0). CONCLUSION: Widespread but delayed community transmission of A(H1N1)pdm09 occurred in Morocco in 2009, and A(H1N1)pdm09 became the dominant influenza virus subtype during the 2009-2010 influenza season. The transmissibility characteristics were similar to those observed in other countries.

Circulation patterns and molecular epidemiology of human respiratory syncytial virus over five consecutive seasons in Morocco.

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is the leading cause of respiratory tract infections in infants and young children. we investigated the prevalence and characteristics of HRSV in Morocco and explored trends in circulating genotypes through partial G gene analysis of HRSV strains prevalent from 2012 to 2017. Methods: Respiratory samples were gathered from both outpatients and inpatients meeting ILI or SARI case definitions. The patients' ages varied from 1 month to 99 years old. Nucleic acids were extracted and HRSV type/subtype was detected by RT-qPCR. A subset of positive samples was randomly selected in each epidemic year, the complete viral genome was sequenced, phylogenetic analysis was performed using the MEGA7 program and the genotypes were confirmed. Results: The 3679 specimens were collected from 2012 to 2017, of which 726 (19.7%) were positive for HRSV. The 35% (257/726) of HRSV-positives were of the HRSV-A subtype, while the HRSV-B subtype accounted for 61% (442/726). The co-infection rate was 3.7% (27/726). The virus circulates in a periodic pattern, where epidemics occur during the fall months through early spring. HRSV genotype was confirmed in 127 specimens (56 HRSV-A and 71 HRSV-B). Based on phylogenetic analysis, all HRSV-A were ON1 genotype, and HRSV-B were mostly BA9 genotype. HRSV-B belonging to the BA10 genotype was detected in 2012 exclusively. Conclusions: BA9, BA10, and ON1 were the only HRSV genotypes detected between 2012 and 2017. Variations in the G gene amino acid chain were identified in local strains, which suggests an increased need for continuous genomic surveillance.

Viral aetiology of influenza-like illnesses and severe acute respiratory illnesses in Morocco, September 2014 to December 2016.

Background: There is a scarcity of information on the viral aetiology of influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) among patients in Morocco. Methods: From September 2014 to December 2016, we prospectively enrolled inpatients and outpatients from all age groups meeting the World Health Organization (WHO) case definition for ILI and SARI from 59 sentinel sites. The specimens were tested using real-time monoplex reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction method for detecting 16 relevant respiratory viruses. Results: At least one respiratory virus was detected in 1423 (70.8%) of 2009 specimens. Influenza viruses were the most common, detected in 612 (30.4%) of processed samples, followed by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in 359 (17.9%), human rhinovirus (HRV) in 263 (13.1%), adenovirus (HAdV) in 124 (6.2%), parainfluenza viruses (HPIV) in 107 (5.3%), coronaviruses (HCoV) in 94 (4.7%), human bocavirus (HBoV) in 92 (4.6%), and human metapneumovirus (HMPV) in 74 (3.7%). From 770 samples from children under 5 years old, RSV (288, 36.6%), influenza viruses (106, 13.8%), HRV (96, 12.5%) and HAdV (91, 11.8%) were most prevalent. Among 955 samples from adults, Influenza viruses (506, 53.0%), and HRV (167, 17.5%) were most often detected. Co-infections were found in 268 (18.8%) of 1423 positive specimens, and most (60.4%) were in children under 5 years of age. While influenza viruses, RSV, and HMPV had a defined period of circulation, the other viruses did not display clear seasonal patterns. Conclusions: We found that RSV was predominant among SARI cases in Morocco, particularly in children under 5 years of age. Our results are in line with reported data from other parts of the world, stating that RSV is the leading cause of lower respiratory tract infections in infants and young children.

Influenza-associated severe acute respiratory infections among children under five years old in Morocco, September 2017 to March 2019.

The main aim of this research is to investigate the trend of influenza infection among children under 5 years with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) as well as those who suffer from a high burden of disease. This research is based on a survey conducted from September 2017 to March 2019. During this period nasopharyngeal swabs were collected in a group of 942 children under 5 years with SARI, admitted in pediatric services of 8 sentinel hospitals. The virological surveillance of influenza was carried out at the National influenza Center, located in the National Institute of Hygiene, using a Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRt-PCR) monoplex assay developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC; Atlanta, GA). The median age of participants was 11 months, and 40% of them were female. A total of 112 samples were reported positive yielding a frequency of 11.88% (112/942). Among all the influenza confirmed cases, 68.75% (77/112), 15.17% (17/112), 16.04% (18/112) were subtyped as influenza AH1N1pdm09, AH3N2 and influenza B respectively. Meanwhile, the proportion of patients admitted at the intensive care unit was 5,35% (6/112). Out of which 83.33% (5/6) were AH1N1pdm09 and it was reported that just 1.78% (2/112) of the positive cases were vaccinated. The study confirms that influenza affects greatly children with SARI. Thus, the need for influenza vaccines is highly recommended for children under 5 years. Moreover, our findings highlight that influenza virus is not the only cause of SARI among this group of children. Accordingly, special attention should be paid to the non-flu respiratory viruses.

The epidemiological signature of influenza B virus and its B/Victoria and B/Yamagata lineages in the 21st century.

We describe the epidemiological characteristics, pattern of circulation, and geographical distribution of influenza B viruses and its lineages using data from the Global Influenza B Study. We included over 1.8 million influenza cases occurred in thirty-one countries during 2000-2018. We calculated the proportion of cases caused by influenza B and its lineages; determined the timing of influenza A and B epidemics; compared the age distribution of B/Victoria and B/Yamagata cases; and evaluated the frequency of lineage-level mismatch for the trivalent vaccine. The median proportion of influenza cases caused by influenza B virus was 23.4%, with a tendency (borderline statistical significance, p = 0.060) to be higher in tropical vs. temperate countries. Influenza B was the dominant virus type in about one every seven seasons. In temperate countries, influenza B epidemics occurred on average three weeks later than influenza A epidemics; no consistent pattern emerged in the tropics. The two B lineages caused a comparable proportion of influenza B cases globally, however the B/Yamagata was more frequent in temperate countries, and the B/Victoria in the tropics (p = 0.048). B/Yamagata patients were significantly older than B/Victoria patients in almost all countries. A lineage-level vaccine mismatch was observed in over 40% of seasons in temperate countries and in 30% of seasons in the tropics. The type B virus caused a substantial proportion of influenza infections globally in the 21st century, and its two virus lineages differed in terms of age and geographical distribution of patients. These findings will help inform health policy decisions aiming to reduce disease burden associated with seasonal influenza.