Elicitation of expert prior opinion to design the BARJDM trial in juvenile dermatomyositis.

OBJECTIVES: To elicit and quantify expert opinion concerning the relative merits of two treatments for a rare inflammatory disease: Juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM). The formal expression of expert opinion reported in this paper will be used in a Bayesian analysis of a forthcoming randomised controlled trial known as BARJDM (baricitinib for juvenile dermatomyositis). METHODS: A Bayesian prior elicitation meeting was convened, following a previously described methodological template. Opinion was sought on the probability that a patient in the BARJDM trial would achieve clinically inactive disease, off glucocorticoids (GC) within a 12-month period with either methotrexate (standard of care); or baricitinib (a Janus kinase inhibitor, JAKi), with GC schedules identical in both arms of the trial. Experts' views were discussed and refined following presentation and further discussion of summated published data regarding efficacy of methotrexate or JAKi for JDM. RESULTS: Ten UK paediatric rheumatology consultants (including one adolescent paediatric rheumatologist) participated in the elicitation meeting. All had expertise in JDM, leading active National Health Service clinics for this disease. Consensus expert prior opinion was that the most likely probability of clinically inactive disease off GC within 12 months was 0.55 on baricitinib and 0.23 on methotrexate, with a greater degree of uncertainty for baricitinib. CONCLUSION: Experts currently think that baricitinib is superior to MTX for the treatment of JDM, although there is uncertainty around this. BARJDM will therefore integrate randomised trial data with this expert prior opinion to derive a posterior distribution for the relative efficacy of baricitinib compared with MTX.

Case Report: ISG15 deficiency caused by novel variants in two families and effective treatment with Janus kinase inhibition.

ISG15 deficiency is a rare disease caused by autosomal recessive variants in the ISG15 gene, which encodes the ISG15 protein. The ISG15 protein plays a dual role in both the type I and II interferon (IFN) immune pathways. Extracellularly, the ISG15 protein is essential for IFN-γ-dependent anti-mycobacterial immunity, while intracellularly, ISG15 is necessary for USP18-mediated downregulation of IFN-α/ß signalling. Due to this dual role, ISG15 deficiency can present with various clinical phenotypes, ranging from susceptibility to mycobacterial infection to autoinflammation characterised by necrotising skin lesions, intracerebral calcification, and pulmonary involvement. In this report, we describe novel variants found in two different families that result in complete ISG15 deficiency and severe skin ulceration. Whole exome sequencing identified a heterozygous missense p.Q16X ISG15 variant and a heterozygous multigene 1p36.33 deletion in the proband from the first family. In the second family, a homozygous total ISG15 gene deletion was detected in two siblings. We also conducted further analysis, including characterisation of cytokine dysregulation, interferon-stimulated gene expression, and p-STAT1 activation in lymphocytes and lesional tissue. Finally, we demonstrate the complete and rapid resolution of clinical symptoms associated with ISG15 deficiency in one sibling from the second family following treatment with the Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitor baricitinib.

Prior elicitation of the efficacy and tolerability of Methotrexate and Mycophenolate Mofetil in Juvenile Localised Scleroderma.

Background: Evidence is lacking for safe and effective treatments for juvenile localised scleroderma (JLS). Methotrexate (MTX) is commonly used first line and mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) second line, despite a limited evidence base. A head to head trial of these two medications would provide data on relative efficacy and tolerability. However, a frequentist approach is difficult to deliver in JLS, because of the numbers needed to sufficiently power a trial. A Bayesian approach could be considered. Methods: An international consensus meeting was convened including an elicitation exercise where opinion was sought on the relative efficacy and tolerability of MTX compared to MMF to produce prior distributions for a future Bayesian trial. Secondary aims were to achieve consensus agreement on critical aspects of a future trial. Results: An international group of 12 clinical experts participated. Opinion suggested superior efficacy and tolerability of MMF compared to MTX; where most likely value of efficacy of MMF was 0.70 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.34-0.90) and of MTX was 0.68 (95% CI 0.41-0.8). The most likely value of tolerability of MMF was 0.77 (95% CI 0.3-0.94) and of MTX was 0.62 (95% CI 0.32-0.84). The wider CI for MMF highlights that experts were less sure about relative efficacy and tolerability of MMF compared to MTX. Despite using a Bayesian approach, power calculations still produced a total sample size of 240 participants, reflecting the uncertainty amongst experts about the performance of MMF. Conclusions: Key factors have been defined regarding the design of a future Bayesian approach clinical trial including elicitation of prior opinion of the efficacy and tolerability of MTX and MMF in JLS. Combining further efficacy data on MTX and MMF with prior opinion could potentially reduce the pre-trial uncertainty so that, when combined with smaller trial sample sizes a compelling evidence base is available.