Development of an Online App to Predict Post-Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Adverse Events Using a Single-Center Retrospective Cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is a technically demanding procedure with a high risk for adverse events (AEs). AIM: evaluate patient- and procedure-related risk factors for ERCP-related AEs and develop an online app to estimate risk of AEs. METHODS: retrospective study of 1,491 consecutive patients who underwent 1,991 ERCPs between 2012 and 2017 was conducted. AEs definition and severity were classified according to most recent ESGE guidelines. Each variable was tested for association with occurrence of overall AEs, post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) and cholangitis. For each outcome, 2 regression models were built, from which an online Shiny-based app was created. RESULTS: Overall AE rate was 15.3%; in 19 procedures, >1 AE occurred. Main post-ERCP AE was PEP (7.5%), followed by cholangitis (4.9%), bleeding (1.3%), perforation (1%), cardiopulmonary events (0.9%), and cholecystitis (0.3%). Seventy-eight percent of AEs were mild/moderate; of severe (n = 55) and fatal (n = 20) AEs, more than half were related to infection, cardiac/pulmonary AEs, and perforation. AE-related mortality rate was 1%. When testing precannulation, procedural covariates, and ERCP findings, AE occurrence was associated with age (odds ratio [OR] 0.991), previous PEP (OR 2.198), ERCP complexity grade III/IV (OR 1.924), standard bile duct cannulation (OR 0.501), sphincterotomy (OR 1.441), metal biliary stent placement (OR 2.014), periprocedural bleeding (OR 3.024), and biliary duct lithiasis (OR 0.673). CONCLUSION: Our app may allow an optimization of the patients' care, by helping in the process of decision-making, not only regarding patient or endoscopist's selection but also definition of an adequate and tailored surveillance plan after the procedure.

Predictive Factors and Clinical Impact of Deep Remission in Celiac Disease.

INTRODUCTION: The ultimate indicator of adherence to a gluten-free diet is the demonstration of mucosal healing. However, the need for histological reassessment is subject to controversy among "experts". The aim of this study was to evaluate celiac patients who underwent histological reevaluation after starting a gluten-free diet in order to identify those with histological remission and associated factors. METHODS: This retrospective study included patients who agreed to a histological reassessment after apparent clinical and serological remission and reported at least 12 months of diet adherence. In all cases, informed consent was signed for upper endoscopy. RESULTS: A total of 69 patients were included. In 67.9% of cases, the diagnosis was made in the context of "classic" symptomatology, 17% had "nonclassical" presentation, and 15.1% were in latent phase. 69.2% of the diagnoses were initially suspected by serology. Endoscopically, 11.8% of the patients did not present suggestive features macroscopically, and a histological grade of Marsh IIIa-c was observed in 75.5% of all cases. The histological findings were normalized in 37.7%, which was associated with the presence of lower Marsh score values at diagnosis (p = 0.014) and lower DEXA T-score values (p = 0.038). A histological improvement was observed in 55 patients (≥2 grades in 37 cases), which was related to the initial transferrin saturation (p = 0.027) and with higher Marsh scores at diagnosis (p = 0.007). CONCLUSION: Even under a gluten-free diet, celiac histology normalization is difficult to obtain and appears to be independent of most clinical and serological findings at diagnosis. Patients with less severe histological levels at diagnosis reach remission more easily, but only represent the -minority of the population.

INTRODUÇÃO: O indicador final da adesão a uma dieta isenta de glúten é a demonstração da cicatrização da mucosa. No entanto, a necessidade de reavaliação histológica é um assunto controverso entre "experts." O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar doentes celíacos submetidos a reavaliado histológica após o inicio da dieta isenta de glúten, a fim de identificar aqueles com remissão histológica e fatores associados. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo, incluindo doentes que concordaram com reavaliação histológica após aparente remissão clínica e serológica, com pelo menos doze meses de adesão relatada à dieta. Em todos os casos, o consentimento informado foi assinado para endoscopia digestiva alta. RESULTADOS: Um total de 69 doentes foram incluidos. Em 67.9% dos casos, o diagnóstico foi feito no contexto de sintomatologia clássica, 17% de apresentações não clássicas e 15.1 % em fase latente. A maioria (69.2%) dos diagnósticos foram inicial-mente suspeitos com base na serologia. Na endoscopia, 11.8% dos pacientes não apresentavam características macroscópicas sugestivas de doença celíaca, observandole um grau histológico de Marsh Illa-c em 75.5% dos casos. Os achados histológicos normalizaram em 37.7% dos doentes, o que foi associado à presença de menores valores de Marsh no momento do diagnóstico (p = 0.014) e menores valores no T-score da densitometria óssea (p = 0.038). Melhoria histológica foi observada em 55 doentes, em dois ou mais graus em 37 casos, o que se relacionou com a saturado inicial da transferrina (p = 0.027), e com maiores scores de Marsh no momento do diagnóstico (p = 0.007). CONCLUSÃO: Mesmo sob uma dieta isenta de glúten, a normalização da histologia na doença celíaca é difícil de obter e parece ser independente da maioria dos achados clínicos e serológicos no momento do diagnóstico. Doentes com níveis histológicos menos graves ao diagnóstico alcançam a remissão mais facilmente, mas representam apenas a minoria da populado.