Genome-wide functional screen of 3'UTR variants uncovers causal variants for human disease and evolution.

3' untranslated region (3'UTR) variants are strongly associated with human traits and diseases, yet few have been causally identified. We developed the massively parallel reporter assay for 3'UTRs (MPRAu) to sensitively assay 12,173 3'UTR variants. We applied MPRAu to six human cell lines, focusing on genetic variants associated with genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and human evolutionary adaptation. MPRAu expands our understanding of 3'UTR function, suggesting that simple sequences predominately explain 3'UTR regulatory activity. We adapt MPRAu to uncover diverse molecular mechanisms at base pair resolution, including an adenylate-uridylate (AU)-rich element of LEPR linked to potential metabolic evolutionary adaptations in East Asians. We nominate hundreds of 3'UTR causal variants with genetically fine-mapped phenotype associations. Using endogenous allelic replacements, we characterize one variant that disrupts a miRNA site regulating the viral defense gene TRIM14 and one that alters PILRB abundance, nominating a causal variant underlying transcriptional changes in age-related macular degeneration.

Clinical Sequencing Uncovers Origins and Evolution of Lassa Virus.

The 2013-2015 West African epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) reminds us of how little is known about biosafety level 4 viruses. Like Ebola virus, Lassa virus (LASV) can cause hemorrhagic fever with high case fatality rates. We generated a genomic catalog of almost 200 LASV sequences from clinical and rodent reservoir samples. We show that whereas the 2013-2015 EVD epidemic is fueled by human-to-human transmissions, LASV infections mainly result from reservoir-to-human infections. We elucidated the spread of LASV across West Africa and show that this migration was accompanied by changes in LASV genome abundance, fatality rates, codon adaptation, and translational efficiency. By investigating intrahost evolution, we found that mutations accumulate in epitopes of viral surface proteins, suggesting selection for immune escape. This catalog will serve as a foundation for the development of vaccines and diagnostics. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Convergence of coronary artery disease genes onto endothelial cell programs.

Linking variants from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to underlying mechanisms of disease remains a challenge1-3. For some diseases, a successful strategy has been to look for cases in which multiple GWAS loci contain genes that act in the same biological pathway1-6. However, our knowledge of which genes act in which pathways is incomplete, particularly for cell-type-specific pathways or understudied genes. Here we introduce a method to connect GWAS variants to functions. This method links variants to genes using epigenomics data, links genes to pathways de novo using Perturb-seq and integrates these data to identify convergence of GWAS loci onto pathways. We apply this approach to study the role of endothelial cells in genetic risk for coronary artery disease (CAD), and discover 43 CAD GWAS signals that converge on the cerebral cavernous malformation (CCM) signalling pathway. Two regulators of this pathway, CCM2 and TLNRD1, are each linked to a CAD risk variant, regulate other CAD risk genes and affect atheroprotective processes in endothelial cells. These results suggest a model whereby CAD risk is driven in part by the convergence of causal genes onto a particular transcriptional pathway in endothelial cells. They highlight shared genes between common and rare vascular diseases (CAD and CCM), and identify TLNRD1 as a new, previously uncharacterized member of the CCM signalling pathway. This approach will be widely useful for linking variants to functions for other common polygenic diseases.

Genome-wide enhancer maps link risk variants to disease genes.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of noncoding loci that are associated with human diseases and complex traits, each of which could reveal insights into the mechanisms of disease1. Many of the underlying causal variants may affect enhancers2,3, but we lack accurate maps of enhancers and their target genes to interpret such variants. We recently developed the activity-by-contact (ABC) model to predict which enhancers regulate which genes and validated the model using CRISPR perturbations in several cell types4. Here we apply this ABC model to create enhancer-gene maps in 131 human cell types and tissues, and use these maps to interpret the functions of GWAS variants. Across 72 diseases and complex traits, ABC links 5,036 GWAS signals to 2,249 unique genes, including a class of 577 genes that appear to influence multiple phenotypes through variants in enhancers that act in different cell types. In inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), causal variants are enriched in predicted enhancers by more than 20-fold in particular cell types such as dendritic cells, and ABC achieves higher precision than other regulatory methods at connecting noncoding variants to target genes. These variant-to-function maps reveal an enhancer that contains an IBD risk variant and that regulates the expression of PPIF to alter the membrane potential of mitochondria in macrophages. Our study reveals principles of genome regulation, identifies genes that affect IBD and provides a resource and generalizable strategy to connect risk variants of common diseases to their molecular and cellular functions.

Insights into clonal haematopoiesis from 8,342 mosaic chromosomal alterations.

The selective pressures that shape clonal evolution in healthy individuals are largely unknown. Here we investigate 8,342 mosaic chromosomal alterations, from 50 kb to 249 Mb long, that we uncovered in blood-derived DNA from 151,202 UK Biobank participants using phase-based computational techniques (estimated false discovery rate, 6-9%). We found six loci at which inherited variants associated strongly with the acquisition of deletions or loss of heterozygosity in cis. At three such loci (MPL, TM2D3-TARSL2, and FRA10B), we identified a likely causal variant that acted with high penetrance (5-50%). Inherited alleles at one locus appeared to affect the probability of somatic mutation, and at three other loci to be objects of positive or negative clonal selection. Several specific mosaic chromosomal alterations were strongly associated with future haematological malignancies. Our results reveal a multitude of paths towards clonal expansions with a wide range of effects on human health.

Estimating heritability and its enrichment in tissue-specific gene sets in admixed populations.

It is important to study the genetics of complex traits in diverse populations. Here, we introduce covariate-adjusted linkage disequilibrium (LD) score regression (cov-LDSC), a method to estimate SNP-heritability (${\boldsymbol{h}}_{\boldsymbol{g}}^{\mathbf{2}})$ and its enrichment in homogenous and admixed populations with summary statistics and in-sample LD estimates. In-sample LD can be estimated from a subset of the genome-wide association studies samples, allowing our method to be applied efficiently to very large cohorts. In simulations, we show that unadjusted LDSC underestimates ${\boldsymbol{h}}_{\boldsymbol{g}}^{\mathbf{2}}$ by 10-60% in admixed populations; in contrast, cov-LDSC is robustly accurate. We apply cov-LDSC to genotyping data from 8124 individuals, mostly of admixed ancestry, from the Slim Initiative in Genomic Medicine for the Americas study, and to approximately 161 000 Latino-ancestry individuals, 47 000 African American-ancestry individuals and 135 000 European-ancestry individuals, as classified by 23andMe. We estimate ${\boldsymbol{h}}_{\boldsymbol{g}}^{\mathbf{2}}$ and detect heritability enrichment in three quantitative and five dichotomous phenotypes, making this, to our knowledge, the most comprehensive heritability-based analysis of admixed individuals to date. Most traits have high concordance of ${\boldsymbol{h}}_{\boldsymbol{g}}^{\mathbf{2}}$ and consistent tissue-specific heritability enrichment among different populations. However, for age at menarche, we observe population-specific heritability estimates of ${\boldsymbol{h}}_{\boldsymbol{g}}^{\mathbf{2}}$. We observe consistent patterns of tissue-specific heritability enrichment across populations; for example, in the limbic system for BMI, the per-standardized-annotation effect size $ \tau $* is 0.16 ± 0.04, 0.28 ± 0.11 and 0.18 ± 0.03 in the Latino-, African American- and European-ancestry populations, respectively. Our approach is a powerful way to analyze genetic data for complex traits from admixed populations.

Estimating cross-population genetic correlations of causal effect sizes.

Recent studies have examined the genetic correlations of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) effect sizes across pairs of populations to better understand the genetic architectures of complex traits. These studies have estimated ρ g , the cross-population correlation of joint-fit effect sizes at genotyped SNPs. However, the value of ρ g depends both on the cross-population correlation of true causal effect sizes ( ρ b ) and on the similarity in linkage disequilibrium (LD) patterns in the two populations, which drive tagging effects. Here, we derive the value of the ratio ρ g / ρ b as a function of LD in each population. By applying existing methods to obtain estimates of ρ g , we can use this ratio to estimate ρ b . Our estimates of ρ b were equal to 0.55 ( SE = 0.14) between Europeans and East Asians averaged across nine traits in the Genetic Epidemiology Research on Adult Health and Aging data set, 0.54 ( SE = 0.18) between Europeans and South Asians averaged across 13 traits in the UK Biobank data set, and 0.48 ( SE = 0.06) and 0.65 ( SE = 0.09) between Europeans and East Asians in summary statistic data sets for type 2 diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis, respectively. These results implicate substantially different causal genetic architectures across continental populations.

Functional Architectures of Local and Distal Regulation of Gene Expression in Multiple Human Tissues.

Genetic variants that modulate gene expression levels play an important role in the etiology of human diseases and complex traits. Although large-scale eQTL mapping studies routinely identify many local eQTLs, the molecular mechanisms by which genetic variants regulate expression remain unclear, particularly for distal eQTLs, which these studies are not well powered to detect. Here, we leveraged all variants (not just those that pass stringent significance thresholds) to analyze the functional architecture of local and distal regulation of gene expression in 15 human tissues by employing an extension of stratified LD-score regression that produces robust results in simulations. The top enriched functional categories in local regulation of peripheral-blood gene expression included coding regions (11.41×), conserved regions (4.67×), and four histone marks (p < 5 × 10-5 for all enrichments); local enrichments were similar across the 15 tissues. We also observed substantial enrichments for distal regulation of peripheral-blood gene expression: coding regions (4.47×), conserved regions (4.51×), and two histone marks (p < 3 × 10-7 for all enrichments). Analyses of the genetic correlation of gene expression across tissues confirmed that local regulation of gene expression is largely shared across tissues but that distal regulation is highly tissue specific. Our results elucidate the functional components of the genetic architecture of local and distal regulation of gene expression.

Leveraging Distant Relatedness to Quantify Human Mutation and Gene-Conversion Rates.

The rate at which human genomes mutate is a central biological parameter that has many implications for our ability to understand demographic and evolutionary phenomena. We present a method for inferring mutation and gene-conversion rates by using the number of sequence differences observed in identical-by-descent (IBD) segments together with a reconstructed model of recent population-size history. This approach is robust to, and can quantify, the presence of substantial genotyping error, as validated in coalescent simulations. We applied the method to 498 trio-phased sequenced Dutch individuals and inferred a point mutation rate of 1.66 × 10(-8) per base per generation and a rate of 1.26 × 10(-9) for <20 bp indels. By quantifying how estimates varied as a function of allele frequency, we inferred the probability that a site is involved in non-crossover gene conversion as 5.99 × 10(-6). We found that recombination does not have observable mutagenic effects after gene conversion is accounted for and that local gene-conversion rates reflect recombination rates. We detected a strong enrichment of recent deleterious variation among mismatching variants found within IBD regions and observed summary statistics of local sharing of IBD segments to closely match previously proposed metrics of background selection; however, we found no significant effects of selection on our mutation-rate estimates. We detected no evidence of strong variation of mutation rates in a number of genomic annotations obtained from several recent studies. Our analysis suggests that a mutation-rate estimate higher than that reported by recent pedigree-based studies should be adopted in the context of DNA-based demographic reconstruction.

Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores.

Polygenic risk scores have shown great promise in predicting complex disease risk and will become more accurate as training sample sizes increase. The standard approach for calculating risk scores involves linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based marker pruning and applying a p value threshold to association statistics, but this discards information and can reduce predictive accuracy. We introduce LDpred, a method that infers the posterior mean effect size of each marker by using a prior on effect sizes and LD information from an external reference panel. Theory and simulations show that LDpred outperforms the approach of pruning followed by thresholding, particularly at large sample sizes. Accordingly, predicted R(2) increased from 20.1% to 25.3% in a large schizophrenia dataset and from 9.8% to 12.0% in a large multiple sclerosis dataset. A similar relative improvement in accuracy was observed for three additional large disease datasets and for non-European schizophrenia samples. The advantage of LDpred over existing methods will grow as sample sizes increase.

LD Hub: a centralized database and web interface to perform LD score regression that maximizes the potential of summary level GWAS data for SNP heritability and genetic correlation analysis.

MOTIVATION: LD score regression is a reliable and efficient method of using genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary-level results data to estimate the SNP heritability of complex traits and diseases, partition this heritability into functional categories, and estimate the genetic correlation between different phenotypes. Because the method relies on summary level results data, LD score regression is computationally tractable even for very large sample sizes. However, publicly available GWAS summary-level data are typically stored in different databases and have different formats, making it difficult to apply LD score regression to estimate genetic correlations across many different traits simultaneously. RESULTS: In this manuscript, we describe LD Hub - a centralized database of summary-level GWAS results for 173 diseases/traits from different publicly available resources/consortia and a web interface that automates the LD score regression analysis pipeline. To demonstrate functionality and validate our software, we replicated previously reported LD score regression analyses of 49 traits/diseases using LD Hub; and estimated SNP heritability and the genetic correlation across the different phenotypes. We also present new results obtained by uploading a recent atopic dermatitis GWAS meta-analysis to examine the genetic correlation between the condition and other potentially related traits. In response to the growing availability of publicly accessible GWAS summary-level results data, our database and the accompanying web interface will ensure maximal uptake of the LD score regression methodology, provide a useful database for the public dissemination of GWAS results, and provide a method for easily screening hundreds of traits for overlapping genetic aetiologies. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The web interface and instructions for using LD Hub are available at http://ldsc.broadinstitute.org/ CONTACT: jie.zheng@bristol.ac.ukSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Improving fine-mapping by modeling infinitesimal effects.

Fine-mapping aims to identify causal genetic variants for phenotypes. Bayesian fine-mapping algorithms (for example, SuSiE, FINEMAP, ABF and COJO-ABF) are widely used, but assessing posterior probability calibration remains challenging in real data, where model misspecification probably exists, and true causal variants are unknown. We introduce replication failure rate (RFR), a metric to assess fine-mapping consistency by downsampling. SuSiE, FINEMAP and COJO-ABF show high RFR, indicating potential overconfidence in their output. Simulations reveal that nonsparse genetic architecture can lead to miscalibration, while imputation noise, nonuniform distribution of causal variants and quality control filters have minimal impact. Here we present SuSiE-inf and FINEMAP-inf, fine-mapping methods modeling infinitesimal effects alongside fewer larger causal effects. Our methods show improved calibration, RFR and functional enrichment, competitive recall and computational efficiency. Notably, using our methods' posterior effect sizes substantially increases polygenic risk score accuracy over SuSiE and FINEMAP. Our work improves causal variant identification for complex traits, a fundamental goal of human genetics.

Functional dissection of complex and molecular trait variants at single nucleotide resolution.

Identifying the causal variants and mechanisms that drive complex traits and diseases remains a core problem in human genetics. The majority of these variants have individually weak effects and lie in non-coding gene-regulatory elements where we lack a complete understanding of how single nucleotide alterations modulate transcriptional processes to affect human phenotypes. To address this, we measured the activity of 221,412 trait-associated variants that had been statistically fine-mapped using a Massively Parallel Reporter Assay (MPRA) in 5 diverse cell-types. We show that MPRA is able to discriminate between likely causal variants and controls, identifying 12,025 regulatory variants with high precision. Although the effects of these variants largely agree with orthogonal measures of function, only 69% can plausibly be explained by the disruption of a known transcription factor (TF) binding motif. We dissect the mechanisms of 136 variants using saturation mutagenesis and assign impacted TFs for 91% of variants without a clear canonical mechanism. Finally, we provide evidence that epistasis is prevalent for variants in close proximity and identify multiple functional variants on the same haplotype at a small, but important, subset of trait-associated loci. Overall, our study provides a systematic functional characterization of likely causal common variants underlying complex and molecular human traits, enabling new insights into the regulatory grammar underlying disease risk.

Cell-type-specific Alzheimer's disease polygenic risk scores are associated with distinct disease processes in Alzheimer's disease.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) heritability is enriched in glial genes, but how and when cell-type-specific genetic risk contributes to AD remains unclear. Here, we derive cell-type-specific AD polygenic risk scores (ADPRS) from two extensively characterized datasets. In an autopsy dataset spanning all stages of AD (n=1,457), astrocytic (Ast) ADPRS was associated with both diffuse and neuritic Aß plaques, while microglial (Mic) ADPRS was associated with neuritic Aß plaques, microglial activation, tau, and cognitive decline. Causal modeling analyses further clarified these relationships. In an independent neuroimaging dataset of cognitively unimpaired elderly (n=2,921), Ast-ADPRS were associated with Aß, and Mic-ADPRS was associated with Aß and tau, showing a consistent pattern with the autopsy dataset. Oligodendrocytic and excitatory neuronal ADPRSs were associated with tau, but only in the autopsy dataset including symptomatic AD cases. Together, our study provides human genetic evidence implicating multiple glial cell types in AD pathophysiology, starting from the preclinical stage.

Cell-type-specific Alzheimer's disease polygenic risk scores are associated with distinct disease processes in Alzheimer's disease.

Many of the Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk genes are specifically expressed in microglia and astrocytes, but how and when the genetic risk localizing to these cell types contributes to AD pathophysiology remains unclear. Here, we derive cell-type-specific AD polygenic risk scores (ADPRS) from two extensively characterized datasets and uncover the impact of cell-type-specific genetic risk on AD endophenotypes. In an autopsy dataset spanning all stages of AD (n = 1457), the astrocytic ADPRS affected diffuse and neuritic plaques (amyloid-ß), while microglial ADPRS affected neuritic plaques, microglial activation, neurofibrillary tangles (tau), and cognitive decline. In an independent neuroimaging dataset of cognitively unimpaired elderly (n = 2921), astrocytic ADPRS was associated with amyloid-ß, and microglial ADPRS was associated with amyloid-ß and tau, connecting cell-type-specific genetic risk with AD pathology even before symptom onset. Together, our study provides human genetic evidence implicating multiple glial cell types in AD pathophysiology, starting from the preclinical stage.

Leveraging polygenic enrichments of gene features to predict genes underlying complex traits and diseases.

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) are a valuable tool for understanding the biology of complex human traits and diseases, but associated variants rarely point directly to causal genes. In the present study, we introduce a new method, polygenic priority score (PoPS), that learns trait-relevant gene features, such as cell-type-specific expression, to prioritize genes at GWAS loci. Using a large evaluation set of genes with fine-mapped coding variants, we show that PoPS and the closest gene individually outperform other gene prioritization methods, but observe the best overall performance by combining PoPS with orthogonal methods. Using this combined approach, we prioritize 10,642 unique gene-trait pairs across 113 complex traits and diseases with high precision, finding not only well-established gene-trait relationships but nominating new genes at unresolved loci, such as LGR4 for estimated glomerular filtration rate and CCR7 for deep vein thrombosis. Overall, we demonstrate that PoPS provides a powerful addition to the gene prioritization toolbox.

An encyclopedia of enhancer-gene regulatory interactions in the human genome.

Identifying transcriptional enhancers and their target genes is essential for understanding gene regulation and the impact of human genetic variation on disease1-6. Here we create and evaluate a resource of >13 million enhancer-gene regulatory interactions across 352 cell types and tissues, by integrating predictive models, measurements of chromatin state and 3D contacts, and largescale genetic perturbations generated by the ENCODE Consortium7. We first create a systematic benchmarking pipeline to compare predictive models, assembling a dataset of 10,411 elementgene pairs measured in CRISPR perturbation experiments, >30,000 fine-mapped eQTLs, and 569 fine-mapped GWAS variants linked to a likely causal gene. Using this framework, we develop a new predictive model, ENCODE-rE2G, that achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple prediction tasks, demonstrating a strategy involving iterative perturbations and supervised machine learning to build increasingly accurate predictive models of enhancer regulation. Using the ENCODE-rE2G model, we build an encyclopedia of enhancer-gene regulatory interactions in the human genome, which reveals global properties of enhancer networks, identifies differences in the functions of genes that have more or less complex regulatory landscapes, and improves analyses to link noncoding variants to target genes and cell types for common, complex diseases. By interpreting the model, we find evidence that, beyond enhancer activity and 3D enhancer-promoter contacts, additional features guide enhancerpromoter communication including promoter class and enhancer-enhancer synergy. Altogether, these genome-wide maps of enhancer-gene regulatory interactions, benchmarking software, predictive models, and insights about enhancer function provide a valuable resource for future studies of gene regulation and human genetics.

Meta-analysis fine-mapping is often miscalibrated at single-variant resolution.

Meta-analysis is pervasively used to combine multiple genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Fine-mapping of meta-analysis studies is typically performed as in a single-cohort study. Here, we first demonstrate that heterogeneity (e.g., of sample size, phenotyping, imputation) hurts calibration of meta-analysis fine-mapping. We propose a summary statistics-based quality-control (QC) method, suspicious loci analysis of meta-analysis summary statistics (SLALOM), that identifies suspicious loci for meta-analysis fine-mapping by detecting outliers in association statistics. We validate SLALOM in simulations and the GWAS Catalog. Applying SLALOM to 14 meta-analyses from the Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative (GBMI), we find that 67% of loci show suspicious patterns that call into question fine-mapping accuracy. These predicted suspicious loci are significantly depleted for having nonsynonymous variants as lead variant (2.7×; Fisher's exact p = 7.3 × 10-4). We find limited evidence of fine-mapping improvement in the GBMI meta-analyses compared with individual biobanks. We urge extreme caution when interpreting fine-mapping results from meta-analysis of heterogeneous cohorts.

Genome-wide pleiotropy analysis of coronary artery disease and pneumonia identifies shared immune pathways.

Coronary artery disease (CAD) remains the leading cause of death despite scientific advances. Elucidating shared CAD/pneumonia pathways may reveal novel insights regarding CAD pathways. We performed genome-wide pleiotropy analyses of CAD and pneumonia, examined the causal effects of the expression of genes near independently replicated SNPs and interacting genes with CAD and pneumonia, and tested interactions between disruptive coding mutations of each pleiotropic gene and smoking status on CAD and pneumonia risks. Identified pleiotropic SNPs were annotated to ADAMTS7 and IL6R. Increased ADAMTS7 expression across tissues consistently showed decreased risk for CAD and increased risk for pneumonia; increased IL6R expression showed increased risk for CAD and decreased risk for pneumonia. We similarly observed opposing CAD/pneumonia effects for NLRP3. Reduced ADAMTS7 expression conferred a reduced CAD risk without increased pneumonia risk only among never-smokers. Genetic immune-inflammatory axes of CAD linked to respiratory infections implicate ADAMTS7 and IL6R, and related genes.

Leveraging fine-mapping and multipopulation training data to improve cross-population polygenic risk scores.

Polygenic risk scores suffer reduced accuracy in non-European populations, exacerbating health disparities. We propose PolyPred, a method that improves cross-population polygenic risk scores by combining two predictors: a new predictor that leverages functionally informed fine-mapping to estimate causal effects (instead of tagging effects), addressing linkage disequilibrium differences, and BOLT-LMM, a published predictor. When a large training sample is available in the non-European target population, we propose PolyPred+, which further incorporates the non-European training data. We applied PolyPred to 49 diseases/traits in four UK Biobank populations using UK Biobank British training data, and observed relative improvements versus BOLT-LMM ranging from +7% in south Asians to +32% in Africans, consistent with simulations. We applied PolyPred+ to 23 diseases/traits in UK Biobank east Asians using both UK Biobank British and Biobank Japan training data, and observed improvements of +24% versus BOLT-LMM and +12% versus PolyPred. Summary statistics-based analogs of PolyPred and PolyPred+ attained similar improvements.