Emin: A First-Principles Thermochemical Descriptor for Predicting Molecular Synthesizability.

Predicting the synthesizability of a new molecule remains an unsolved challenge that chemists have long tackled with heuristic approaches. Here, we report a new method for predicting synthesizability using a simple yet accurate thermochemical descriptor. We introduce Emin, the energy difference between a molecule and its lowest energy constitutional isomer, as a synthesizability predictor that is accurate, physically meaningful, and first-principles based. We apply Emin to 134,000 molecules in the QM9 data set and find that Emin is accurate when used alone and reduces incorrect predictions of "synthesizable" by up to 52% when used to augment commonly used prediction methods. Our work illustrates how first-principles thermochemistry and heuristic approximations for molecular stability are complementary, opening a new direction for synthesizability prediction methods.

Twins in rotational spectroscopy: Does a rotational spectrum uniquely identify a molecule?

Rotational spectroscopy is the most accurate method for determining structures of molecules in the gas phase. It is often assumed that a rotational spectrum is a unique "fingerprint" of a molecule. The availability of large molecular databases and the development of artificial intelligence methods for spectroscopy make the testing of this assumption timely. In this paper, we pose the determination of molecular structures from rotational spectra as an inverse problem. Within this framework, we adopt a funnel-based approach to search for molecular twins, which are two or more molecules, which have similar rotational spectra but distinctly different molecular structures. We demonstrate that there are twins within standard levels of computational accuracy by generating rotational constants for many molecules from several large molecular databases, indicating that the inverse problem is ill-posed. However, some twins can be distinguished by increasing the accuracy of the theoretical methods or by performing additional experiments.

Resistance- and endurance-trained young men display comparable carotid artery strain parameters that are superior to untrained men.

PURPOSE: Central arterial stiffness, a predictor of cardiovascular risk, attenuates with endurance-exercise in ageing populations. However, in young individuals, this effect is inconsistent and emerging evidence suggests resistance-exercise may increase arterial stiffness. Two-dimensional (2D)-Strain imaging of the common carotid artery (CCA) is more sensitive at detecting endurance-training induced alterations in CCA stiffness than conventional methods, but has not been used to examine CCA stiffness in young resistance-trained individuals. Therefore, we compared CCA 2D-Strain parameters at rest, during acute exercise and recovery between resistance-trained, endurance-trained, and untrained young men. METHODS: Short-axis CCA ultrasound images were obtained from 12 endurance-trained [27yrs (95%CI; 24-29)], 14 resistance-trained [24yrs (23-26)] and 12 untrained [23yrs (22-24] men at rest, during isometric handgrip (IHG) exercise and recovery. 2D-Strain analysis quantified CCA peak circumferential strain (PCS) and systolic (S-SR) and diastolic (D-SR) strain rates. Conventional stiffness indices included aortic pulse-wave velocity, CCA ß-stiffness (ß1) and Petersons elastic modulus (Ep). RESULTS: Resting conventional stiffness indices were not different between groups (P > 0.05). Resting PCS and S-SR were comparable between resistance- [11.6% (10.6-12.5) and 1.46 s-1 (1.37-1.55), respectively] and endurance-trained [11.4% (10.7-12.2) and 1.5 s-1 (1.38-1.62)] men and superior to untrained men [9.5% (9.19-9.9); P < 0.004 and 1.24 s-1 (1.17 - 1.31); P < 0.018)]. Both trained groups displayed comparable reductions in PCS and S-SR during IHG, which returned to resting values during recovery (P < 0.001), whereas these parameters remained unchanged in untrained men. D-SR decreased during IHG in all groups (P < 0.001), but to a lesser extent in endurance-trained men (P < 0.023), whereas ß1 and Ep increased to a similar magnitude in all groups and returned to resting values during recovery (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Resistance- and endurance-trained men display comparable CCA 2D-Strain parameters that are superior to untrained men, which contends previous reports that resistance-training increases CCA stiffness.

2'-O methylation of RNA cap in SARS-CoV-2 captured by serial crystallography.

The genome of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) coronavirus has a capping modification at the 5'-untranslated region (UTR) to prevent its degradation by host nucleases. These modifications are performed by the Nsp10/14 and Nsp10/16 heterodimers using S-adenosylmethionine as the methyl donor. Nsp10/16 heterodimer is responsible for the methylation at the ribose 2'-O position of the first nucleotide. To investigate the conformational changes of the complex during 2'-O methyltransferase activity, we used a fixed-target serial synchrotron crystallography method at room temperature. We determined crystal structures of Nsp10/16 with substrates and products that revealed the states before and after methylation, occurring within the crystals during the experiments. Here we report the crystal structure of Nsp10/16 in complex with Cap-1 analog (m7GpppAm2'-O). Inhibition of Nsp16 activity may reduce viral proliferation, making this protein an attractive drug target.

AL4GAP: Active learning workflow for generating DFT-SCAN accurate machine-learning potentials for combinatorial molten salt mixtures.

Machine learning interatomic potentials have emerged as a powerful tool for bypassing the spatiotemporal limitations of ab initio simulations, but major challenges remain in their efficient parameterization. We present AL4GAP, an ensemble active learning software workflow for generating multicomposition Gaussian approximation potentials (GAP) for arbitrary molten salt mixtures. The workflow capabilities include: (1) setting up user-defined combinatorial chemical spaces of charge neutral mixtures of arbitrary molten mixtures spanning 11 cations (Li, Na, K, Rb, Cs, Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba and two heavy species, Nd, and Th) and 4 anions (F, Cl, Br, and I), (2) configurational sampling using low-cost empirical parameterizations, (3) active learning for down-selecting configurational samples for single point density functional theory calculations at the level of Strongly Constrained and Appropriately Normed (SCAN) exchange-correlation functional, and (4) Bayesian optimization for hyperparameter tuning of two-body and many-body GAP models. We apply the AL4GAP workflow to showcase high throughput generation of five independent GAP models for multicomposition binary-mixture melts, each of increasing complexity with respect to charge valency and electronic structure, namely: LiCl-KCl, NaCl-CaCl2, KCl-NdCl3, CaCl2-NdCl3, and KCl-ThCl4. Our results indicate that GAP models can accurately predict structure for diverse molten salt mixture with density functional theory (DFT)-SCAN accuracy, capturing the intermediate range ordering characteristic of the multivalent cationic melts.

Massive formation of early diagenetic dolomite in the Ediacaran ocean: Constraints on the "dolomite problem".

Paleozoic and Precambrian sedimentary successions frequently contain massive dolomicrite [CaMg(CO3)2] units despite kinetic inhibitions to nucleation and precipitation of dolomite at Earth surface temperatures (<60 °C). This paradoxical observation is known as the "dolomite problem." Accordingly, the genesis of these dolostones is usually attributed to burial-hydrothermal dolomitization of primary limestones (CaCO3) at temperatures of >100 °C, thus raising doubt about the validity of these deposits as archives of Earth surface environments. We present a high-resolution, >63-My-long clumped-isotope temperature (TΔ47) record of shallow-marine dolomicrites from two drillcores of the Ediacaran (635 to 541 Ma) Doushantuo Formation in South China. Our T∆47 record indicates that a majority (87%) of these dolostones formed at temperatures of <100 °C. When considering the regional thermal history, modeling of the influence of solid-state reordering on our TΔ47 record further suggests that most of the studied dolostones formed at temperatures of <60 °C, providing direct evidence of a low-temperature origin of these dolostones. Furthermore, calculated δ18O values of diagenetic fluids, rare earth element plus yttrium compositions, and petrographic observations of these dolostones are consistent with an early diagenetic origin in a rock-buffered environment. We thus propose that a precursor precipitate from seawater was subsequently dolomitized during early diagenesis in a near-surface setting to produce the large volume of dolostones in the Doushantuo Formation. Our findings suggest that the preponderance of dolomite in Paleozoic and Precambrian deposits likely reflects oceanic conditions specific to those eras and that dolostones can be faithful recorders of environmental conditions in the early oceans.

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security.

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.

Fixed-target serial crystallography at the Structural Biology Center.

Serial synchrotron crystallography enables the study of protein structures under physiological temperature and reduced radiation damage by collection of data from thousands of crystals. The Structural Biology Center at Sector 19 of the Advanced Photon Source has implemented a fixed-target approach with a new 3D-printed mesh-holder optimized for sample handling. The holder immobilizes a crystal suspension or droplet emulsion on a nylon mesh, trapping and sealing a near-monolayer of crystals in its mother liquor between two thin Mylar films. Data can be rapidly collected in scan mode and analyzed in near real-time using piezoelectric linear stages assembled in an XYZ arrangement, controlled with a graphical user interface and analyzed using a high-performance computing pipeline. Here, the system was applied to two ß-lactamases: a class D serine ß-lactamase from Chitinophaga pinensis DSM 2588 and L1 metallo-ß-lactamase from Stenotrophomonas maltophilia K279a.

High-Throughput Virtual Screening and Validation of a SARS-CoV-2 Main Protease Noncovalent Inhibitor.

Despite the recent availability of vaccines against the acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the search for inhibitory therapeutic agents has assumed importance especially in the context of emerging new viral variants. In this paper, we describe the discovery of a novel noncovalent small-molecule inhibitor, MCULE-5948770040, that binds to and inhibits the SARS-Cov-2 main protease (Mpro) by employing a scalable high-throughput virtual screening (HTVS) framework and a targeted compound library of over 6.5 million molecules that could be readily ordered and purchased. Our HTVS framework leverages the U.S. supercomputing infrastructure achieving nearly 91% resource utilization and nearly 126 million docking calculations per hour. Downstream biochemical assays validate this Mpro inhibitor with an inhibition constant (Ki) of 2.9 µM (95% CI 2.2, 4.0). Furthermore, using room-temperature X-ray crystallography, we show that MCULE-5948770040 binds to a cleft in the primary binding site of Mpro forming stable hydrogen bond and hydrophobic interactions. We then used multiple µs-time scale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and machine learning (ML) techniques to elucidate how the bound ligand alters the conformational states accessed by Mpro, involving motions both proximal and distal to the binding site. Together, our results demonstrate how MCULE-5948770040 inhibits Mpro and offers a springboard for further therapeutic design.

Improving the Accuracy of Composite Methods: A G4MP2 Method with G4-like Accuracy and Implications for Machine Learning.

G4MP2 theory has proven to be a reliable and accurate quantum chemical composite method for the calculation of molecular energies using an approximation based on second-order perturbation theory to lower computational costs compared to G4 theory. However, it has been found to have significantly increased errors when applied to larger organic molecules with 10 or more nonhydrogen atoms. We report here on an investigation of the cause of the failure of G4MP2 theory for such larger molecules. One source of error is found to be the "higher-level correction (HLC)", which is meant to correct for deficiencies in correlation contributions to the calculated energies. This is because the HLC assumes that the contribution is independent of the element and the type of bonding involved, both of which become more important with larger molecules. We address this problem by adding an atom-specific correction, dependent on atom type but not bond type, to the higher-level correction. We find that a G4MP2 method that incorporates this modification of the higher-level correction, referred to as G4MP2A, becomes as accurate as G4 theory (for computing enthalpies of formation) for a test set of molecules with less than 10 nonhydrogen atoms as well as a set with 10-14 such atoms, the set of molecules considered here, with a much lower computational cost. The G4MP2A method is also found to significantly improve ionization potentials and electron affinities. Finally, we implemented the G4MP2A energies in a machine learning method to predict molecular energies.

Intelligent resolution: Integrating Cryo-EM with AI-driven multi-resolution simulations to observe the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 replication-transcription machinery in action.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) replication transcription complex (RTC) is a multi-domain protein responsible for replicating and transcribing the viral mRNA inside a human cell. Attacking RTC function with pharmaceutical compounds is a pathway to treating COVID-19. Conventional tools, e.g., cryo-electron microscopy and all-atom molecular dynamics (AAMD), do not provide sufficiently high resolution or timescale to capture important dynamics of this molecular machine. Consequently, we develop an innovative workflow that bridges the gap between these resolutions, using mesoscale fluctuating finite element analysis (FFEA) continuum simulations and a hierarchy of AI-methods that continually learn and infer features for maintaining consistency between AAMD and FFEA simulations. We leverage a multi-site distributed workflow manager to orchestrate AI, FFEA, and AAMD jobs, providing optimal resource utilization across HPC centers. Our study provides unprecedented access to study the SARS-CoV-2 RTC machinery, while providing general capability for AI-enabled multi-resolution simulations at scale.

Uncertainty-Informed Deep Transfer Learning of Perfluoroalkyl and Polyfluoroalkyl Substance Toxicity.

Perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) pose a significant hazard because of their widespread industrial uses, environmental persistence, and bioaccumulation. A growing, increasingly diverse inventory of PFAS, including 8163 chemicals, has recently been updated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. However, with the exception of a handful of well-studied examples, little is known about their human toxicity potential because of the substantial resources required for in vivo toxicity experiments. We tackle the problem of expensive in vivo experiments by evaluating multiple machine learning (ML) methods, including random forests, deep neural networks (DNN), graph convolutional networks, and Gaussian processes, for predicting acute toxicity (e.g., median lethal dose, or LD50) of PFAS compounds. To address the scarcity of toxicity information for PFAS, publicly available datasets of oral rat LD50 for all organic compounds are aggregated and used to develop state-of-the-art ML source models for transfer learning. A total of 519 fluorinated compounds containing two or more C-F bonds with known toxicity are used for knowledge transfer to ensembles of the best-performing source model, DNN, to generate the target models for the PFAS domain with access to uncertainty. This study predicts toxicity for PFAS with a defined chemical structure. To further inform prediction confidence, the transfer-learned model is embedded within a SelectiveNet architecture, where the model is allowed to identify regions of prediction with greater confidence and abstain from those with high uncertainty using a calibrated cutoff rate.

Graph-Based Approaches for Predicting Solvation Energy in Multiple Solvents: Open Datasets and Machine Learning Models.

The solvation properties of molecules, often estimated using quantum chemical simulations, are important in the synthesis of energy storage materials, drugs, and industrial chemicals. Here, we develop machine learning models of solvation energies to replace expensive quantum chemistry calculations with inexpensive-to-compute message-passing neural network models that require only the molecular graph as inputs. Our models are trained on a new database of solvation energies for 130,258 molecules taken from the QM9 dataset computed in five solvents (acetone, ethanol, acetonitrile, dimethyl sulfoxide, and water) via an implicit solvent model. Our best model achieves a mean absolute error of 0.5 kcal/mol for molecules with nine or fewer non-hydrogen atoms and 1 kcal/mol for molecules with between 10 and 14 non-hydrogen atoms. We make the entire dataset of 651,290 computed entries openly available and provide simple web and programmatic interfaces to enable others to run our solvation energy model on new molecules. This model calculates the solvation energies for molecules using only the SMILES string and also provides an estimate of whether each molecule is within the domain of applicability of our model. We envision that the dataset and models will provide the functionality needed for the rapid screening of large chemical spaces to discover improved molecules for many applications.

Open-source Software Sustainability Models: Initial White Paper From the Informatics Technology for Cancer Research Sustainability and Industry Partnership Working Group.

BACKGROUND: The National Cancer Institute Informatics Technology for Cancer Research (ITCR) program provides a series of funding mechanisms to create an ecosystem of open-source software (OSS) that serves the needs of cancer research. As the ITCR ecosystem substantially grows, it faces the challenge of the long-term sustainability of the software being developed by ITCR grantees. To address this challenge, the ITCR sustainability and industry partnership working group (SIP-WG) was convened in 2019. OBJECTIVE: The charter of the SIP-WG is to investigate options to enhance the long-term sustainability of the OSS being developed by ITCR, in part by developing a collection of business model archetypes that can serve as sustainability plans for ITCR OSS development initiatives. The working group assembled models from the ITCR program, from other studies, and from the engagement of its extensive network of relationships with other organizations (eg, Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, Open Source Initiative, and Software Sustainability Institute) in support of this objective. METHODS: This paper reviews the existing sustainability models and describes 10 OSS use cases disseminated by the SIP-WG and others, including 3D Slicer, Bioconductor, Cytoscape, Globus, i2b2 (Informatics for Integrating Biology and the Bedside) and tranSMART, Insight Toolkit, Linux, Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics tools, R, and REDCap (Research Electronic Data Capture), in 10 sustainability aspects: governance, documentation, code quality, support, ecosystem collaboration, security, legal, finance, marketing, and dependency hygiene. RESULTS: Information available to the public reveals that all 10 OSS have effective governance, comprehensive documentation, high code quality, reliable dependency hygiene, strong user and developer support, and active marketing. These OSS include a variety of licensing models (eg, general public license version 2, general public license version 3, Berkeley Software Distribution, and Apache 3) and financial models (eg, federal research funding, industry and membership support, and commercial support). However, detailed information on ecosystem collaboration and security is not publicly provided by most OSS. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend 6 essential attributes for research software: alignment with unmet scientific needs, a dedicated development team, a vibrant user community, a feasible licensing model, a sustainable financial model, and effective product management. We also stress important actions to be considered in future ITCR activities that involve the discussion of the sustainability and licensing models for ITCR OSS, the establishment of a central library, the allocation of consulting resources to code quality control, ecosystem collaboration, security, and dependency hygiene.

Exascale applications: skin in the game.

As noted in Wikipedia, skin in the game refers to having 'incurred risk by being involved in achieving a goal', where 'skin is a synecdoche for the person involved, and game is the metaphor for actions on the field of play under discussion'. For exascale applications under development in the US Department of Energy Exascale Computing Project, nothing could be more apt, with the skin being exascale applications and the game being delivering comprehensive science-based computational applications that effectively exploit exascale high-performance computing technologies to provide breakthrough modelling and simulation and data science solutions. These solutions will yield high-confidence insights and answers to the most critical problems and challenges for the USA in scientific discovery, national security, energy assurance, economic competitiveness and advanced healthcare. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Numerical algorithms for high-performance computational science'.

Quantum-Chemically Informed Machine Learning: Prediction of Energies of Organic Molecules with 10 to 14 Non-hydrogen Atoms.

High-fidelity quantum-chemical calculations can provide accurate predictions of molecular energies, but their high computational costs limit their utility, especially for larger molecules. We have shown in previous work that machine learning models trained on high-level quantum-chemical calculations (G4MP2) for organic molecules with one to nine non-hydrogen atoms can provide accurate predictions for other molecules of comparable size at much lower costs. Here we demonstrate that such models can also be used to effectively predict energies of molecules larger than those in the training set. To implement this strategy, we first established a set of 191 molecules with 10-14 non-hydrogen atoms having reliable experimental enthalpies of formation. We then assessed the accuracy of computed G4MP2 enthalpies of formation for these 191 molecules. The error in the G4MP2 results was somewhat larger than that for smaller molecules, and the reason for this increase is discussed. Two density functional methods, B3LYP and ωB97X-D, were also used on this set of molecules, with ωB97X-D found to perform better than B3LYP at predicting energies. The G4MP2 energies for the 191 molecules were then predicted using these two functionals with two machine learning methods, the FCHL-Δ and SchNet-Δ models, with the learning done on calculated energies of the one to nine non-hydrogen atom molecules. The better-performing model, FCHL-Δ, gave atomization energies of the 191 organic molecules with 10-14 non-hydrogen atoms within 0.4 kcal/mol of their G4MP2 energies. Thus, this work demonstrates that quantum-chemically informed machine learning can be used to successfully predict the energies of large organic molecules whose size is beyond that in the training set.

TomoGAN: low-dose synchrotron x-ray tomography with generative adversarial networks: discussion.

Synchrotron-based x-ray tomography is a noninvasive imaging technique that allows for reconstructing the internal structure of materials at high spatial resolutions from tens of micrometers to a few nanometers. In order to resolve sample features at smaller length scales, however, a higher radiation dose is required. Therefore, the limitation on the achievable resolution is set primarily by noise at these length scales. We present TomoGAN, a denoising technique based on generative adversarial networks, for improving the quality of reconstructed images for low-dose imaging conditions. We evaluate our approach in two photon-budget-limited experimental conditions: (1) sufficient number of low-dose projections (based on Nyquist sampling), and (2) insufficient or limited number of high-dose projections. In both cases, the angular sampling is assumed to be isotropic, and the photon budget throughout the experiment is fixed based on the maximum allowable radiation dose on the sample. Evaluation with both simulated and experimental datasets shows that our approach can significantly reduce noise in reconstructed images, improving the structural similarity score of simulation and experimental data from 0.18 to 0.9 and from 0.18 to 0.41, respectively. Furthermore, the quality of the reconstructed images with filtered back projection followed by our denoising approach exceeds that of reconstructions with the simultaneous iterative reconstruction technique, showing the computational superiority of our approach.

Sediment source fingerprinting: benchmarking recent outputs, remaining challenges and emerging themes.

PURPOSE: This review of sediment source fingerprinting assesses the current state-of-the-art, remaining challenges and emerging themes. It combines inputs from international scientists either with track records in the approach or with expertise relevant to progressing the science. METHODS: Web of Science and Google Scholar were used to review published papers spanning the period 2013-2019, inclusive, to confirm publication trends in quantities of papers by study area country and the types of tracers used. The most recent (2018-2019, inclusive) papers were also benchmarked using a methodological decision-tree published in 2017. SCOPE: Areas requiring further research and international consensus on methodological detail are reviewed, and these comprise spatial variability in tracers and corresponding sampling implications for end-members, temporal variability in tracers and sampling implications for end-members and target sediment, tracer conservation and knowledge-based pre-selection, the physico-chemical basis for source discrimination and dissemination of fingerprinting results to stakeholders. Emerging themes are also discussed: novel tracers, concentration-dependence for biomarkers, combining sediment fingerprinting and age-dating, applications to sediment-bound pollutants, incorporation of supportive spatial information to augment discrimination and modelling, aeolian sediment source fingerprinting, integration with process-based models and development of open-access software tools for data processing. CONCLUSIONS: The popularity of sediment source fingerprinting continues on an upward trend globally, but with this growth comes issues surrounding lack of standardisation and procedural diversity. Nonetheless, the last 2 years have also evidenced growing uptake of critical requirements for robust applications and this review is intended to signpost investigators, both old and new, towards these benchmarks and remaining research challenges for, and emerging options for different applications of, the fingerprinting approach.

Choosing experiments to accelerate collective discovery.

A scientist's choice of research problem affects his or her personal career trajectory. Scientists' combined choices affect the direction and efficiency of scientific discovery as a whole. In this paper, we infer preferences that shape problem selection from patterns of published findings and then quantify their efficiency. We represent research problems as links between scientific entities in a knowledge network. We then build a generative model of discovery informed by qualitative research on scientific problem selection. We map salient features from this literature to key network properties: an entity's importance corresponds to its degree centrality, and a problem's difficulty corresponds to the network distance it spans. Drawing on millions of papers and patents published over 30 years, we use this model to infer the typical research strategy used to explore chemical relationships in biomedicine. This strategy generates conservative research choices focused on building up knowledge around important molecules. These choices become more conservative over time. The observed strategy is efficient for initial exploration of the network and supports scientific careers that require steady output, but is inefficient for science as a whole. Through supercomputer experiments on a sample of the network, we study thousands of alternatives and identify strategies much more efficient at exploring mature knowledge networks. We find that increased risk-taking and the publication of experimental failures would substantially improve the speed of discovery. We consider institutional shifts in grant making, evaluation, and publication that would help realize these efficiencies.